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Though most central banks actively intervene on the foreign exchange market, the literature offers mixed evidence on their effectiveness: particularly for unannounced interventions. We use new, declassified data from the archives of the Bank of England and the institutional features of the Bretton Woods Era to estimate the effects of intervention on the exchange rate. We find that a purchase of pounds equivalent to 1% of the money supply causes a statistically significant, 4–5 basis point appreciation in the pound. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of the research presented in the article regard the importance of publication of macroeconomic data from the United States for the short-term USD/PLN currency pair exchange rate volatility. The main purpose of the research was to indicate what macroeconomic data is important for the short-term USD/PLN exchange rate volatility. The following research questions have been posed does the USD/PLN exchange rate react to the published macroeconomic data from the American economy and second could greater USD/PLN exchange rate volatility be observed during the COVID pandemic and has the war in Ukraine impacted the USD/PLN exchange rate volatility. International Foreign Exchange Market is the largest and most dynamically developing financial market in the world. In the globalized world the exchange rates are mainly influenced by economic factors. The most significant economic factors that impact short-term exchange rate volatility are primarily macroeconomic data from the American economy. Therefore in this article the author attempts to analyze macroeconomic data and their impact on short-term USD/PLN exchange rate volatility. Data based on which the research was made is as follows: Consumer Price Index, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Services PMI, Manufacturing PMI, Empire State Manufacturing Index or Retail Sales. The analysis of connections between the publication of macroeconomic data and the reaction of exchange rates was carried out using the linear regression model with GARCH process for the random parameter. Conclusions of this research is exchange rate volatility USD/PLN was higher after publications of the macroeconomic data from Americans economy. The strongest exchange rate reaction was after publication of data regarding inflation, Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales. In the COVID (1.03.20—14.02.22) period we observed increased USD/PLN exchange rate volatility. Exchange rate volatility was expressly larger in the period of war in Ukraine (15.02.22 – end of experiment).

This paper intends to contribute to the literature on the determinants of exchange rate fluctuations. We build an agent-based model inspired by the literature on behavioral finance and by empirical surveys about the behavior of foreign exchange professionals. In our artificial economy, traders allocate their wealth across heterogeneous assets based on expectations about exchange and interest rate fluctuations. Fundamentalists use both fundamental and technical signals, but overweight the former, while chartists only employ technical signals, and are either trend followers or trend contrarians. Each class of traders represents a fixed share of total traders. We find that the simultaneous co-existence of heterogeneous strategies can explain most stylized facts of foreign exchange markets, despite the absence of short-run switching from less to more profitable rules. Moreover, contrary to the predictions of the Market Selection Hypothesis, we find that heterogeneity of expectations is an essential requirement for traders' profitability, as no class of traders can dominate the market profitably. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The results of the research presented in the article regard the importance of publication of macroeconomic data from the United States for the short-term USD/PLN currency pair exchange rate volatility. The main purpose of the research was to indicate what macroeconomic data is important for the short-term USD/PLN exchange rate volatility. The following research questions have been posed does the USD/PLN exchange rate react to the published macroeconomic data from the American economy and second could greater USD/PLN exchange rate volatility be observed during the COVID pandemic and has the war in Ukraine impacted the USD/PLN exchange rate volatility. International Foreign Exchange Market is the largest and most dynamically developing financial market in the world. In the globalized world the exchange rates are mainly influenced by economic factors. The most significant economic factors that impact short-term exchange rate volatility are primarily macroeconomic data from the American economy. Therefore in this article the author attempts to analyze macroeconomic data and their impact on short-term USD/PLN exchange rate volatility. Data based on which the research was made is as follows: Consumer Price Index, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Services PMI, Manufacturing PMI, Empire State Manufacturing Index or Retail Sales. The analysis of connections between the publication of macroeconomic data and the reaction of exchange rates was carried out using the linear regression model with GARCH process for the random parameter. Conclusions of this research is exchange rate volatility USD/PLN was higher after publications of the macroeconomic data from Americans economy. The strongest exchange rate reaction was after publication of data regarding inflation, Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales. In the COVID (1.03.20—14.02.22) period we observed increased USD/PLN exchange rate volatility. Exchange rate volatility was expressly larger in the period of war in Ukraine (15.02.22 – end of experiment). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply recent stability and bifurcation results to provide an analytical characterization of Paul de Grauwe's chaotic exchange rate model. We prove that the model's fundamental steady state becomes unstable due to a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation when chartists extrapolate past exchange rate trends too strongly, a phenomenon that gives rise to cyclical exchange rate dynamics. In contrast, fundamentalists' mean reversion strength only has a stabilizing effect on the model's dynamics when the exchange rate is out of equilibrium. We also show that agent-based versions of Paul de Grauwe's exchange rate model may produce endogenous exchange rate dynamics, too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the frequency connectedness among foreign exchange markets of G10 countries, focusing on tail risk and its implications for portfolio management. To do so, we use a novel framework that combines the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk (CAViaR) model with the novel time-varying frequency and quantile connectedness method developed by Chatziantoniou et al. (2022) based on Baruník and Křehlík (2018) and Ando et al. (2018) approach. A key value of this paper to the literature is the provision of fresh empirical evidence on the extreme downside linkages among the markets examined. From the average connectedness measures, the top shock transmitters within the network were EUR, NOK, AUD, SEK, and NZD, while the main shock receivers emerged to be JPY and CHF, followed by CAD and GBP. We note that events in the major funding markets (the Eurozone, Japan) have a higher impact on the participants in these same markets than in relatively small markets (New Zealand, Norway). From the dynamic connectedness results, the magnitude of connectedness for the entire sample period increased during the COVID-19 era, compared to the magnitude before the COVID-19 outbreak. The cumulative spillover also reveals that USDNOK is the vastest net transmitter of spillovers to other markets, including SEK, CHF, and AUD. However, the EUR is the largest net beneficiary followed by JPY and CAD. Findings from the time-varying extreme downside analysis suggest that throughout the period, SEK and NOK are the other currencies' strongest and most frequent net spillover shock emitters for the short-, medium-, and long-term dynamics. Currency portfolio implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we develop an identifiable multi-factor stochastic volatility model for international portfolio choice problems in complete and incomplete markets. Allowing for stochastic covariance between financial asset returns and foreign exchange rates, optimal investment strategies are derived in closed form and welfare losses arising from suboptimal investment strategies are analysed. Moreover, we provide a two-step procedure for estimating as well as calibrating the model parameters and use this ansatz to illustrate optimal investment decisions for the S&P 500, the German blue chip index DAX, and the USD/EUR foreign exchange rate. We find, both theoretically and empirically, that the model satisfies various well-known stylized facts of equity and foreign exchange rate markets and that investors who invest myopically or ignore derivative assets can incur substantial welfare losses implying strong evidence for significant welfare benefits from international diversification across different asset classes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cross-section of foreign exchange returns has substantial exposure to the risk captured by the marketwide moments. We investigate if the foreign exchange market risks are appropriately priced in exchange rates of individual countries. We use cross-sectional analysis to explore the correlation between the marketwide risks and risk premiums of foreign currencies. The results from analysis with the Fama and MacBeth regressions indicate that, while the market beta is negatively associated with the cross-sectional returns in foreign exchange markets, higher exposures to market-wide volatility, skewness, and kurtosis are positively related to individual countries' exchange-rate risk premiums. These results are robust in the empirical setup. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the high‐frequency exchange rates of 25 global currency pairs, we document a striking clock‐time periodicity in which trading activity surges at the beginning of a minute. Additional analyses indicate that clock‐time spikes are accompanied by a lower level of liquidity. Moreover, we find that time‐clustering trades yield permanent price impacts, are devoted to efficient pricing, and make a significant contribution to price discovery. Finally, we investigate three informed scenarios to ascertain how trades at spikes acquire information beforehand and reflect them in markets. Taken together, our findings reinforce the view in the literature that subminute periodicity emanates from algorithmic trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore how China's geographically targeted policies impact RMB overseas use individually or in combination. The policies include swap agreements, clearing banks, investment quotas, and direct trading between Chinese renminbi (RMB) and non‐USD currencies. Adopting a fuzzy‐set qualitative comparative analysis and using Bank of International Settlements cross‐country data on foreign exchange markets, we find that institution building has lowered the barriers to international adoption of the RMB. Specifically, for countries economically close to China, high RMB trading is explained by either (i) having a clearing bank in the host market and direct quotations between the RMB and the local currency, or (ii) being a financial center and having access to the Chinese capital market. This combination of policies is explained by the creation of (i) "trading posts" that provide RMB liquidity abroad, and (ii) channels that allow actors to "recycle" offshore RMB funds. We triangulate our results with interviews conducted with senior People's Bank of China officials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we show that forward premiums are significant predictors of innovations in currency spot rates, and currency forward rates lead to price discovery during normal trading periods. Conversely, currency spot rates lead to price discovery during volatile periods. This finding is linked to investors' overreaction to information, which in turn induces jumps in the currency spot rate; positive jumps weaken the contribution of the forward rate to price discovery and their informational efficiency. We also find that the forward premium puzzle is linked to jump‐driven pricing inefficiencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We explore how the US presidential effect in stock returns is connected to the US presidential effect in foreign exchange returns to the US dollar. Our results for the 1973–2016 period show that the existence of a presidential effect in stock returns depends on how a firm's stock returns are associated with changes in the value of the US dollar. We document that a complex association exists between presidential effects in stock returns, stock risk premiums, macro-economic variables, and the foreign exchange market. Overall, the presidential effect in stock returns is driven by exporters through their exposure to the presidential effect in returns to the US dollar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Enriches the related research on cross-border capital flows. • The impact of cross-border capital flows in different cycles is analysed. • The asymmetric impact of cross-border capital fluctuations is made explicit. This study explores the impact of cross-border capital flows on foreign exchange market stability. The research reveals that, in the long term, depreciation pressures arising from the withdrawal of cross-border capital inflows outweigh appreciation pressures arising from increased cross-border capital inflows. The impact of positive changes in cross-border capital outflows is significantly more significant than that of negative changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The relationship between currencies in foreign exchange markets has been a topic of significance in economics. Previous studies have focused more on correlations between currencies. However, the detection of causality can reveal their inherent laws. Although the traditional Granger causality test can identify causality, it cannot take into account the nature and intensity of the causality. Thus, the objective of this paper is to identify the causalities of currencies from the perspective of dynamics. In this paper, we select 25 currencies (with the US dollar (USD) as the numeraire) from foreign exchange markets, as they occupy large shares in their regions. To detect the causalities of the foreign exchange markets, we combine PC (pattern causality) theory and complex networks to construct directed and weighted causality networks, in which the nodes represent the currencies and the directed edges represent the causal intensities. Furthermore, we study the symmetry of each causality and quantify the symmetry degree. The results demonstrate that causalities exist between currencies that differ in terms of nature and intensity. The positive causality network exhibits substantial robustness, which can be regarded as the dominant causal relationship in the foreign exchange markets, although a few exceptions are encountered, such as the dominant negative and disordered causalities between currency pairs. In addition, the dominant causalities between most currencies are symmetric in terms of nature, and they also exhibit symmetry in terms of intensity. Furthermore, by gradually deleting the network by thresholding according to the edge weights, we identify the important driving currencies of the markets. This paper may provide valuable information for investors and supervisory departments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies recently developed procedures to monitor and date so-called "financial market dislocations", defined as periods in which substantial deviations from arbitrage parities take place. In particular, we use a cointegration perspective to focus on deviations from the triangular arbitrage parity for exchange rate triplets. Due to increasing attention on and importance of mispricing in the market for cryptocurrencies, we include the cryptocurrency Bitcoin in addition to fiat currencies in our analysis. We do not find evidence for substantial deviations from the triangular arbitrage parity when only traditional fiat currencies are considered, but document significant deviations from triangular arbitrage parities in the newer market for Bitcoin. We tentatively confirm the importance of our results for portfolio strategies by showing that a currency portfolio that trades based on our detected break-points outperforms a simple buy-and-hold strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the existence of no arbitrage assumption over time and triangular arbitrage in a foreign exchange market is tested. Also, forecasting the exchange rates are studied. An optimal property of exchange rates returns to guarantee the no arbitrage assumption as well as for forecasting exchange rates is the martingale property. Some theoretical results under the risk neutral measure and their equivalents form in physical probability measure are given. Also, based on a real data set, it is seen that this assumption works well for forecasting purposes. Using the Doob maximal inequality, the accuracy of forecasts is surveyed. Then, a theoretical relation between beta market risks of exchange rates is surveyed. Finally, a conclusion section is also proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jumps in the Euro, Pound, and Yen, based on 5‐minute returns for the period 2004–2015, are shown to be state dependent between recessions and expansions in their response to macroeconomic news announcements and speeches by treasury and central bank senior officials. We find evidence of large jumps and cojumps response to the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision consistently over economic states. U.S. news is more important than EU news and jump magnitude and probability exhibit positive responses. Federal Reserve senior officials' speeches generate more jumps during the U.S. mortgage crisis and the EU sovereign debt recession. Although public communications of some European Central Bank and Bank of England senior officials cause fewer jumps, they produce significant cojumps of the three major currency markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of derivatives on the relationship between the foreign exchange rate and the stock market. A theoretical model is used to extend the understanding of that relationship. Also, the model is tested with an empirical analysis using the GMM strategy for the Mexican and Brazilian stock markets for the period 2007 to 2019. Findings reveal that in addition to the spot exchange rate, exchange rate futures explain the currency exposure, wherein the derivative effect is the most prominent. The result implies that both risk sources should be considered in the implementation of risk management or macroeconomic policy. The theoretical results are extended by applying them to international portfolio management, proposing a strategy to mitigate foreign exchange exposure with derivatives. This study contributes to the literature by explaining why the minimum variance hedge ratio plays an essential role in the foreign exchange rate and stock market nexus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several articles claim that Eichenbaum and Evans (1995) shows that nominal exchange rates experience a delayed version of Dornbusch overshooting. These same articles usually claim that impulse responses similar to those in Eichenbaum and Evans are evidence of such overshooting. But Eichenbaum and Evans never claim that their evidence implies overshooting, delayed or otherwise. More importantly, impulse response functions like those in Eichenbaum and Evans do not support overshooting. Three recent articles repeat this misinterpretation of the evidence. My objective is to use those articles to illustrate how the evidence about overshooting is widely misinterpreted. What is interpreted as supporting overshooting is at least as consistent with an efficient market as it is with overshooting.

• We provide evidence that the Russia–Ukraine war negatively impacted foreign exchange markets. • The adverse effect of the conflict is more pronounced in countries with high reliance on Russian energy and countries with high levels of EPU. • Results are driven by countries with proximity to Russia and Ukraine, and those with high degree of political rights. • Russia's invasion has also negatively affected the return and volatility of the global equity markets. We examine the relationship between geopolitical risks and foreign exchange markets using the Russia–Ukraine conflict as a natural experiment. Our main findings indicate that, due to intensified geopolitical risks, the conflict had a negative effect on foreign exchange rates. This adverse effect of geopolitical risks is more pronounced in countries with high reliance on Russian energy, countries with a high level of economic policy uncertainty, countries with geographic proximity to Russia and Ukraine, and countries where the degree of political rights, and freedom of political expression is elevated. Our additional analyses suggest that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has also negatively affected the return and volatility of the global equity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As support for traditional asset models of the foreign exchange market fades, there is growing interest in more general models that include flows from international trade and international investment. One advantage of flow models is that they fit naturally into the recent literature on microstructure, particularly the work on order flow. My objective here is to use intervention data to help discriminate between traditional asset models of the foreign exchange market and more general flow models. The evidence supports a flow approach.

How strongly are foreign exchange markets linked in terms of their similarities in long-run fluctuations? Are they cointegrating? To analyze such “comovements,” we present a time-varying cointegration model for the foreign exchange rates of the currencies of Canada, Japan, and the UK vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar from May 1990 through July 2015. Unlike previous studies, we allow the loading matrix in the vector error-correction (VEC) model to be varying over time. Because the loading matrix in the VEC model is associated with the speed at which deviations from the long-run relationship disappear, we propose a new degree of market comovement based on the time-varying loading matrix to measure the strength or robustness of the long-run relationship over time. Since exchange rates are determined by macrovariables, cointegration among exchange rates implies these variables share common stochastic trends. Therefore, the proposed degree measures the degree of market comovement. Our main finding is that the market comovement has become stronger over the past quarter-century, but at a decreasing rate with two major turning points: one in 1995 and the other one in 2008.

We examine the association between the foreign exchange rate of the US dollar and US presidential cycles. Results show that Republican presidencies tend to start with a strong dollar, which then depreciates over the course of the presidency. In contrast, Democratic presidencies tend to begin with a weak dollar that then appreciates. These patterns result in an apparent presidential effect in US foreign exchange rates, the direction of which depends on whether exchange rates are measured by levels or by returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to investigate how forecasters in the foreign exchange market form expectations and whether the expectation formation process differs between industrialized and emerging countries. In order to explain the expectation formation of forecasters in countries and country groups, we analyze around 50,000 forecasts for 22 OECD member currencies. We find that differences between the way forecasters in industrialized countries and emerging countries form exchange rate expectations. However, we show that one important difference is due to a difference in forecasting behavior of emerging countries. Controlling for this feature lets the forecasting behavior in emerging countries resemble more the ones found for industrialized countries, but not for all forecast horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study whether disagreement is a useful proxy for uncertainty in the foreign exchange market using monthly forecasts for the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar over the 2001–2017 period. We obtain measures of uncertainty and find that disagreement is not robustly related to uncertainty, as results depend heavily on the forecast horizon. In addition, we find that disagreement is positively associated with market liquidity and trading activity. This confirms that disagreement is not a proper proxy for uncertainty and suggests that it is more akin to heterogeneity. • We test whether disagreement is a proxy for uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. • We find that disagreement is not robustly associated with exogenous measures of uncertainty. • We find that disagreement is positively associated with liquidity and trade. • All in all, we conclude that disagreement is not a good proxy for uncertainty. • Our results suggest that disagreement is more akin to heterogeneity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A market fix serves as a benchmark for foreign exchange (FX) execution, and is employed by many institutional investors to establish an exact reference at which execution takes place. The currently most popular FX fix is the World Market Reuters (WM/R) 4 pm fix. Execution at the WM/R 4 pm fix is a service offered by FX brokers (normally banks), who deliver execution at the fix provided they obtain the trade order ahead of time. In this paper, we study the market microstructure around 4 pm. We demonstrate that market dynamics can be distinguished from other times during the day through increased volatility and size of movements. Our findings question the aggregate benefit to the client base of using the WM/R 4 pm fix in its current form.

Stochastic simulation of the exchange rate of latin american currencies about the US dollar Resumen El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar las posibilidades de simulación de las variaciones del tipo de cambio de algunas monedas latinoamericanas respecto al dólar estadounidense; esto se realiza a través de dos modelos: el movimiento geométrico browniano geométrico (GMB) y el proceso de Ornstein- Uhlenbeck (OU). Aunque las propiedades de estos procesos son esenciales en el resultado de la simulación, también es necesario tener en cuenta algunas hipótesis de la teoría económica, entre ellas que cuanto menor es el desarrollo de los mercados financieros, mayor será la intervención del banco central en el mercado cambiario; y que el control del tipo de cambio es utilizado como un instrumento adicional de la política monetaria además del objetivo tradicional de la tasa de interés. La investigación especialmente examina la política monetaria y la dinámica del tipo de cambio en los siguientes casos: peso argentino/dólar USD; peso mexicano/dólar USD; real brasileño/dólar USD y peso chileno/ dólar USD; en cada uno de ellos, se analiza la viabilidad de simular su dinámica mediante procesos estocásticos. Abstract The objective of this paper is to examine the possibilities of simulation of the exchange rate variations of some Latin American currencies against the US dollar; It is performed through two models: the geometric Brownian geometric movement (GMB) and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process (OU). Although the properties of these processes are essential in the simulation results, it is also necessary to take into account some hypotheses of economic theory, including the smaller the development of financial markets, the mayor will be the intervention of the central bank in the Exchange market; And that exchange rate control is used as an additional instrument of monetary policy in addition to the traditional objective of the interest rate. The research especially examines monetary policy and the dynamics of the exchange rate in the following cases: Argentine peso / dollar USD; Mexican Peso / US Dollar USD; Brazilian real/ dollar USD and Chilean peso / dollar USD; In each of them, the feasibility of simulating its dynamics through stochastic processes is analyzed.

This study investigates the dynamic relationship and hedging strategy between stock and foreign exchange markets in Greater China for the period 22 July 2005 to 30 November 2015. Using the DCC‐GARCH model with and without structural breaks, the results provide strong evidence of negative time‐varying correlations between these two markets in Greater China, consistent with the "stock‐oriented" models of exchange rates. Moreover, adding structural breaks reduces the degree of volatility persistence for all considered markets and can provide more accurate hedge and safe haven properties of the US dollar against Greater China stock markets. The findings have several important implications for portfolio risk managers, international investors and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given that renminbi always breaks the historical high against USD, psychological literature on limited investor attention motivates me to consider whether this eye-grabbing event would have an impact on renminbi trading. Empirical evidence suggests that both nearness to the historical high and hitting the historical high negatively affect renminbi future returns. This result survives from a variety of robustness checks. My findings are consistent with the conservatism theory and suggest that investors tend to under-react in response to the news of breaking the historical high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]