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Based on the food equivalent unit (FEU), this article analyzed Chinese food consumption patterns, spatial mismatch, and production potential to explore agricultural reform strategies. Assessing production–demand mismatch involved the spatial mismatch model, drawing data from statistical yearbooks. Calculations of food production potential utilized the CASA model and the Thornthwaite Memorial model, with net primary productivity (NPP) derived from remote sensing data as indicators. The results showed that livestock product consumption is on the rise, and the spatial mismatch index for herbivorous livestock products was the largest, ranging from 22.81 to 98.12 in 2019. The mismatched degree distribution of rations and food-consuming livestock products showed a trend of increasing on both sides, with the Hu Huanyong line as the center line. Production factors played a predominant role in food production-to-demand mismatch. Climatic productivity and actual productivity decreased from the southeast to northwest in space in 2019, and human activities significantly impacted productivity. When grassland agriculture is pursued as the adjustment orientation, the production potential can reach up to 4540.76 × 107 kg·FEU. Moreover, a grassland agriculture plan was devised, prioritizing its development in the developed southern regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the food equivalent unit (FEU), this article analyzed Chinese food consumption patterns, spatial mismatch, and production potential to explore agricultural reform strategies. Assessing production–demand mismatch involved the spatial mismatch model, drawing data from statistical yearbooks. Calculations of food production potential utilized the CASA model and the Thornthwaite Memorial model, with net primary productivity (NPP) derived from remote sensing data as indicators. The results showed that livestock product consumption is on the rise, and the spatial mismatch index for herbivorous livestock products was the largest, ranging from 22.81 to 98.12 in 2019. The mismatched degree distribution of rations and food-consuming livestock products showed a trend of increasing on both sides, with the Hu Huanyong line as the center line. Production factors played a predominant role in food production-to-demand mismatch. Climatic productivity and actual productivity decreased from the southeast to northwest in space in 2019, and human activities significantly impacted productivity. When grassland agriculture is pursued as the adjustment orientation, the production potential can reach up to 4540.76 × 107 kg·FEU. Moreover, a grassland agriculture plan was devised, prioritizing its development in the developed southern regions.

To explore the distribution of food demand and the projected trend in future food demand in China, this paper analyzed the change in current (1998–2012) per-capita demand for grain, grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products, and predicted the food demand in 2020. The results indicated that in 1998–2012, the national per-capita consumption of grain ration declined by about 36.66%, and the per-capita consumption of grain-consu-ming and herbivorous livestock products increased by about 48% and 34.09%, respectively. The grain-consu-ming livestock products have become the primary source of both calories and protein for consumers. The proportion of herbivorous livestock products in consumer diets has increased steadily and there has been huge potential in substituting beef and mutton for pork in this dynamic market. The demand for food in different provinces of China is highly variable, which is important for planning grassland agriculture development and ensuring food safety. The demand for grain, and grain-consuming and herbivorous livestock products will increase by about 3.3%, 20% and 14% respectively by 2020. Based on the food demand and trend in the development of grassland agriculture, the 31 provinces in China are divided into three priority groups for grassland agriculture development.