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We study the impact of different sources of global, regional and local uncertainty on the seven largest Scandinavian banks over the period 2005–2018. Using a spillover approach and network analysis, we find that Swedish banks are the main source of contagion in the region and spillovers tend to increase in times of heightened uncertainty. Global economic policy uncertainty, global financial uncertainty and local housing market uncertainty affect the Scandinavian banking sector the most. By contrast, geopolitical risk spillovers are limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates volatility connectedness between the Euro and the currencies of seven Central, Eastern and Southeastern emerging European economies by adopting the Diebold- Yilmaz connectedness index methodology. Using daily data from 2006 to 2024, the analysis finds that the euro acts as a strong connectedness source towards the other seven currencies. The Polish zloty and the Czech koruna, in line with their emerging economies, also act as important connectedness sources. Although Turkey and Russia are not members of the European Union, they act as sources of connectedness through the Turkish lira and the Russian ruble when they are hit by large domestic shocks. The Hungarian forint, the Romanian leu and the Bulgarian lev have relatively low connectedness effects. Shock propagation capacities of the analyzed currencies follow a similar pattern while the Czech koruna, being a relatively strong shock propagator, has the lowest standard deviation in its shock propagation capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries are experiencing a surge in political, economic, and financial integration, consequently shaping international market linkages. Financial crises can rapidly spread between countries, emphasizing the need to monitor and assess stock market connections. This paper investigates the degree of financial market connectedness using daily stock returns from January 1997 to August 2017 for 13 countries, both developed and developing. The connectedness measure of Diebold and Yilmaz (2009-2012) is applied to examine the connectedness of stock market returns and the direction of spillovers for all stock markets. This study also analyzes the dynamic connectedness from the U.S. stock market to all other stock markets. The results indicate that the U.S. stock market is the most influential stock market to the others. The results of the dynamic analysis show that connectedness changes over time, specifically during turmoil periods. Most developed countries are transmitters of return spillover shocks while developing countries are recipients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores volatility spillovers and financial connectedness between conventional and Islamic equity stock markets in developed, emerging, and frontier economies. Four regions– Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC), and Group of Seven (G7)–were selected for this study following the Diebold and Yilmaz (DY-12) and Baruník and Krehlík (BK-18) spillover methods. Daily data from 01 January 2012 to December 31, 2021, were sourced from the Eikon Refinitiv data stream. The results showed that the COVID-19 crisis was lethal compared to the oil crisis of 2014–15. These results suggest that Islamic stock markets are highly interconnected in terms of overall returns. For conventional stocks, the USA stock market largely serves as the top transmitter of returns and volatility. However, for Islamic stocks, France and the USA found to be the top transmitter and receiver of the shock, respectively. Together with these findings, we found that the DY-12 approach could replicate the frequency-domain connectivity measurements of BK-18. Our findings have significant implications for investors, regulators, and policymakers.

This study assesses the dynamic interconnectedness and transference of effects among burgeoning stock exchanges in Sub-Saharan Africa and between African and developed markets following the Ukrainian crisis in February 2022. In addition, the paper presents a comparative analysis of return and volatility during three distinct subperiods. These are the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. This paper conducts research using the Bai-Perron test for multiple structural breaks and the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), alongside the innovation accounting analysis test. The findings of this paper indicate that the resilience and isolation of stock markets in Africa to external financial shocks (volatility shock) have been weakened in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic as compared to the GFC sub-period. The results affirm that stock markets on the African continent have become more sensitive to structural changes and shocks in developed countries. This study has significant implications for investors and policymakers in Africa. Future investors need to genuinely diversify their investment portfolios to minimize future losses generated by shock transmission among markets. Policymakers might have to introduce fully fledged policies to diversify their economies and attract international investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the course of the last century, globalization and integration have increased significantly around the world. The rise in economic and financial globalization and integration has increased the connectedness between national economies and financial markets and secured an important place in the systemic risk spillover. It is important to analyze the issue in terms of different markets. Food prices around the world have increased significantly over the last 20 years. The price and volatility increase associated with food products lead to important socioeconomic and social problems. In this context, it will be important for decision-makers to assess the issue from the perspective of financial markets and to understand and reveal the dynamic structure of food commodity markets. This study aims to examine the connectedness of return and volatility in the Electronic Warehouse Receipt (EWR) market, where agricultural commodities are traded in Turkey, and to analyze its dynamic structure that changes over time. In this study, the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness measurement method based on the forecast error variance decomposition after the VAR (p) model was used to analyze the connectedness between financial assets. According to the results of the static analysis performed, it was observed that while the return connectedness in the EWR market is very low, the volatility connectedness is at a higher level than the return connectedness. Based on the results of the dynamic analysis, no trend was observed in return connectedness; however, rapid increases and decreases were observed for certain periods. On the other hand, while an increasing trend was observed in the dynamic analysis of volatility connectedness, sudden increases and decreases were observed during periods of crisis. Of all agricultural commodities, it was observed that barley was the asset that sent the most net shock into the system. The EWR market in Turkey has come up recently. The market's structure, dynamics, and synchronization with other markets are still at a low level. The spillover effect of return and volatility shocks in the market are also low. The findings of this study can be used by producers, financial market participants and various decision makers for risk management, hedging and profit maximization purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this study is to measure the dynamic connectedness and spillover effects among emerging stock markets in Asia and the developed stock markets of the US and Europe in the ongoing Ukrainian crisis. The paper also aims to provide a comparative analysis of return and volatility spillovers during the global financial crisis in 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukrainian crisis. This paper utilizes the multiple structural beak test of Bai & Perron (2003) and also depicts the risk and return transmissions among these markets using the Diebold & Yilmaz (2012) method. The main outcomes of this study indicate that the stock markets in Asia are less affected by the political crisis in Ukraine as compared to the previous effects during the GFC and COVID-19 periods. The results also show that sensitivity of Asian financial markets to global shocks has been weakened in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis in favour of increased resilience of Asian stock indices to external shocks. These results carry an important implication for international and local investors as well as for policy makers in Asia, where investors have greater potentials for portfolio diversify and risk reduction across Asian markets. Doi: 10.28991/ESJ-2023-07-02-04 Full Text: PDF

Research background: The globalization trend has inevitably enhanced the connectivity of global financial markets, making the cyclicality of financial activities and the spread of market imbalances have received widespread attention, especially after the global financial crisis. Purpose of the article: To reduce the negative effects of the contagiousness of the financial cycles, it is necessary to study the persistence of financial cycles and carve out the total connectedness, spillover paths, and sources of risks on a global scale. In addition, understanding the relationship between the financial cycle and economic development is an important way to prevent financial crises. Methods: This paper adopts the nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) model to extract cyclical and phase characteristics of financial cycles based on 24 countries during 1971Q1-2015Q4, covering developed and developing countries, the Americas, Europe, and Asia regions. In addition, the frequency connectedness approach is used to measure the connectedness of financial cycles and the relationship between the global financial cycle and the global economy. Findings & value added: The analysis reveals that aggregate financial cycles persist for 13.3 years for smoothed and 8.7 years for unsmoothed on average. The national financial cycles are asynchronous and exhibit more prolonged expansions and faster contractions. The connectedness of financial cycles is highly correlated with systemic crises and contributes to the persistence and harmfulness of shocks. It is mainly driven by short-term components and exhibits more pronounced interconnectedness within regions than across regions. During the financial crisis, the global financial cycle movements precede and are longer than the business fluctuations. Based on the study, some policy implications are presented. This paper emphasizes the impact of systemic crises on the persistence of financial cycles and their connectedness, which contributes to refining research related to the coping mechanisms of financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the influence of global financial market conditions on financial risk connectedness and transmission among the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies. Utilizing weekly realized stock market volatilities as a measure of risk and employing a smooth transition threshold vector autoregressive (STVAR) model to analyze risk transmission under varying levels of financial stress, the authors also examine the impact of external macroeconomic conditions on the risk connectedness of MENA economies. The results indicate that the overall connectedness, based on a standard VAR model, is moderate at 48.34%. However, in the low financial stress regime, overall connectedness increases to 52.79%, and in the high financial stress regime, it rises to 72.94%, indicating stronger risk interdependency among MENA countries during times of high stress. In the high financial stress regime, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates are identified as net risk transmitters among MENA countries. The study also reveals that risk transmission across MENA is more pronounced in the regime-dependent model compared to the overall mean-based VAR model. • Examines MENA economies' financial risk connectedness amid global market conditions. • Realized volatilities used as risk measure; STVAR model analyzes risk transmission. • External macroeconomic conditions' impact on risk connectedness is also explored. • Overall connectedness is is 52.7% in low stress and 72.94% in high stress regime. • Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, UAE are net risk transmitters in high stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial markets have witnessed significant disruptions driven by ongoing waves of financial innovation, and digitalization brought about by technological advances which are referred to as "FinTech". Consequently, this paper examines connectedness and risk transmission between FinTech industry, Blockchain, and stability of the financial sector in the UAE. Furthermore, it explores the impact of economic and financial turbulences such as COVID-19 pandemic on the transmission of shocks across FinTech and financial instability using a Time-varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive model. Empirical results indicate that VIX and Global Fintech are the dominant player of the system, and significantly impacting vulnerability of the UAE financial system. However, the post-COVID analysis display shifts in the roles of indices within the connectedness network, such as the OVX transitioning from being a volatility receiver to a transmitter, emphasizing evolving market sentiments in the wake of major crises. Finally, volatility spillovers increased across markets under extreme market conditions indicating that UAE is fully integrated within the global financial markets., Competing Interests: The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:The first author is the Section Editor of Heliyon Finance. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Orientation: This study investigated the relationship between the equity markets and foreign exchange markets in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Research purpose: This study examined the financial connectedness through volatility spillovers and co-movements among equity and foreign exchange markets in the BRICS countries to better understand market interdependencies. Motivation for the study: The literature mainly focused on volatility transmission from developed countries. Research approach: This research, used the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index approach (DY index). The DY index is based on variance decompositions (VD) and impulse response functions that use a vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling framework. The study period was from 02 January 1997 to 31 December 2018. Main findings: Shocks from the equity markets dominate the foreign exchange markets, while foreign exchange markets dominate their equity markets at an individual level. There are interdependencies between BRICS equity markets and foreign exchange markets, except for China, whose markets are relatively isolated from other BRICS markets. Brazil is the largest contributor of volatility spillovers to other BRICS markets. The South African rand is the most integrated within BRICS. Practical implications: Foreign exchange markets provided better diversification opportunities. Significant increases in volatility spillovers associated with turmoil periods in domestic and global markets provide evidence for contagion effects in BRICS markets. Contribution: The current account (flow-oriented model) is crucial in exchange rate determination at the individual country level. In contrast, the capital account (stock-oriented model) is a significant factor in exchange rate determinations at an aggregate level.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic has led to tremendous loss of human life and has severe social and economic impacts worldwide. The spread of the disease has also caused dramatic uncertainty in financial markets, especially in the early stages of the pandemic. In this paper, we adopt the stochastic actor‐oriented model (SAOM) to model dynamic/longitudinal financial networks with the covariates constructed from the network statistics of COVID‐19 dynamic pandemic networks. Our findings provide evidence that the transmission risk of the COVID‐19, measured in the transformed pandemic risk scores, is a main explanatory factor of financial network connectedness from March to May 2020. The pandemic statistics and transformed pandemic risk scores can give early signs of the intense connectedness of the financial markets in mid‐March 2020. We can make use of the SAOM approach to predict possible financial contagion using pandemic network statistics and transformed pandemic risk scores of the COVID‐19 and other pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Research background: The global banking network has been undergoing structural changes since the recent financial crisis. Previous studies on connectedness of global banking network during post-crisis period revealed the trends of regionalization and segmentation. Our previous research has also shown that during post-crisis period the level of regionalization within the EU banking network has increased; the network became more clustered and more decentralized. This paper continues our research of structural changes of EU banking network during post-crisis period by adding a global context and questioning the connectedness of EU banking network within global banking system. Purpose of the article: The aim of the paper is to evaluate the EU banking network’s connectedness in the global context during the post-crisis period. Methods: network analysis method and data on yearly flows of BIS bilateral interbank cross-border claim were used to evaluate the connectedness of global and EU banking systems. Findings & Value added: Evaluation of the global banking network’s connected-ness revealed that global banking network density decreased by 4.50 %, suggesting that connectedness is decreasing, but it is happening slowly. Structural changes in the global banking network did happen during post-crisis period with regards to out-degree, betweenness and closeness centrality indicators. In the global context, the EU banking network became more connected during post-crisis period. The EU banking network was regionalized in 2011, but this regionalization disappeared in 2015, as the level of intraregional density decreased in 2015 and became lower than the interregional density. This research contributes to previous research in a way that it applies intraregional and interregional network density measures for evaluation of the EU banking network’s connectedness, and analyses it as a subset of the global banking network.

Research background: Recent financial crisis of 2007–2008 has influenced global banking system and led to reduction of cross-border bank lending in the EU and worldwide. Global banking network has been analysed extensively in prior or post-crisis periods, but the literature on regionalization is scarce, especially with regard to the banking sector in the EU. Moreover, in previous empirical research evaluation of banking sector regionalization using network analysis methodology has not been yet applied. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to map the EU banking network and to assess its regionalization during post-crisis period. Methods: the paper employs comparative literature analysis and synthesis; BIS bilateral interbank cross-border claim yearly flows matrix data and network analysis method (including network mapping, structural and comparative analysis and the data of intraregional and interregional banking network matrices) to assess the changes in regionalization of the EU banking system. Findings & Value added: The results of the research show that during post-crisis period both, EU 12 and EU 28, banking networks became more clustered and more decentralized; also the level of regionalization within the EU banking network increased. Such results prove that the EU banking network has undergone structural changes with respect to bilateral interbank cross-border claims. This research adds to the knowledge of regionalization processes within the EU banking network during the post-crisis period and intends to be beneficial for market participants, EU level governmental bodies and financial policy makers.

This paper introduces a dominance test that allows to determine whether or not a financial institution can be classified as being more systemically important than another in a multivariate framework. The dominance test relies on a new risk measure, the ΔNetCoVaR that is specifically tailored to capture the joint extreme co-movements between institutions belonging to a network. The asymptotic theory for the statistical test is provided under mild regularity conditions concerning the joint distribution of asset returns which is assumed to be elliptically contoured. The proposed risk measure and risk measurement framework is used to analyse the US financial system during the recent Global Financial Crises. In the empirical analysis, the returns are assumed to be Elliptically Stable distributed and the estimation is carried out through the Sparse Multivariate Method of Simulated Quantiles, handling both the lack of an analytic expression for the probability density function and the potential high-dimensionality of the problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the contributions of Fama-French type risk factors to spillovers across global stock markets by combining the framework proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz(2009) with insights from asset pricing. We demonstrate that incorporating the risk factors absorbs approximately 40% of information from DY's total spillover measure to blur the boundaries between 'To' and 'From' countries and alleviates its upward trend. We find that the DY's spillover index after controlling for the risk factors yet fluctuates in accordance with historically important economic events over time. Last but not least, the stock market characteristics implied by risk factor exposures are revealed to play the crucial role in determining the Net spillover direction among global equity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: The global banking network has been undergoing structural changes since the recent financial crisis. Previous studies on connectedness of global banking network during post-crisis period revealed the trends of regionalization and segmentation. Our previous research has also shown that during post-crisis period the level of regionalization within the EU banking network has increased; the network became more clustered and more decentralized. This paper continues our research of structural changes of EU banking network during post-crisis period by adding a global context and questioning the connectedness of EU banking network within global banking system. Purpose of the article: The aim of the paper is to evaluate the EU banking network’s connectedness in the global context during the post-crisis period.Methods: network analysis method and data on yearly flows of BIS bilateral interbank crossborder claim were used to evaluate the connectedness of global and EU banking systems. Findings & Value added: Evaluation of the global banking network’s connected-ness revealed that global banking network density decreased by 4.50%, suggesting that connectedness is decreasing, but it is happening slowly. Structural changes in the global banking network did happen during post-crisis period with regards to out-degree, betweenness and closeness centrality indicators. In the global context, the EU banking network became more connected during post-crisis period. The EU banking network was regionalized in 2011, but this regionalization disappeared in 2015, as the level of intraregional density decreased in 2015 and became lower than the interregional density. This research contributes to previous research in a way that it applies intraregional and interregional network density measures for evaluation of the EU banking network’s connectedness, and analyses it as a subset of the global banking network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Recent financial crisis of 2007-2008 has influenced global banking system and led to reduction of cross-border bank lending in the EU and worldwide. Global banking network has been analysed extensively in prior or post-crisis periods, but the literature on regionalization is scarce, especially with regard to the banking sector in the EU. Moreover, in previous empirical research evaluation of banking sector regionalization using network analysis methodology has not been yet applied. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to map the EU banking network and to assess its regionalization during post-crisis period. Methods: the paper employs comparative literature analysis and synthesis; BIS bilateral interbank cross-border claim yearly flows matrix data and network analysis method (including network mapping, structural and comparative analysis and the data of intraregional andinterregional banking network matrices) to assess the changes in regionalization of the EU banking system. Findings & Value added: The results of the research show that during post-crisis period both, EU 12 and EU 28, banking networks became more clustered and more decentralized; also the level of regionalization within the EU banking network increased. Such results prove that the EU banking network has undergone structural changes with respect to bilateral interbank cross-border claims. This research adds to the knowledge of regionalization processes within the EU banking network during the post-crisis period and intends to be beneficial for market participants, EU level governmental bodies and financial policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the dynamic connectedness between Gulf countries and BRICS stocks markets with a sample of cryptocurrencies, as well as two newly developed digital assets, namely NFT and DeFi, and Gold. The period under examination spans from January 2019 until September 2022. Our analysis is based on wavelet coherence, which is a suitable methodology considering the nonlinear dynamics present in data. Our empirical results clearly identify nontrivial time-varying connectedness between different assets and the stock markets. Asymmetric patterns in the interconnections of newly developed digital assets, cryptocurrencies, Gold and emerging market indices are well-documented, especially during the advent of the health and political events. Our empirical findings have relevant implications for portfolio managers, investors and researchers about portfolio allocation, investment strategies and potential diversification benefits of NFT and DeFi digital assets. • Connectedness among various asset classes tends to be time-varying. • Connectedness intensifies during the health and political crises. • Asymmetric patterns in cross-market linkages are well-pronounced. • Health and political events change significantly pairwise connectedness framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]