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This study uses a family of VAR models with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to analyze the impact of external shocks on output growth and inflation in Peru in 1992Q1-2017Q1. The statistical relevance of the models is assessed using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the marginal log-likelihood calculated using the cross-entropy method. The results show that: (i) it is more relevant to introduce SV than TVP; i.e., the best fitting model admits only varying intercepts and SV; and TVP-VAR and CVAR are the least performing models; (ii) the models' impulse response functions indicate that the impacts from external shocks are different under high inflation, economic crisis, and monetary policy change, with a greater impact in episodes of high uncertainty; (iii) the impact and importance of external shocks have increased over time; and (iv) the results are robust to changes in the priors, the lag structure, order of the variables, the choice of the external variable, and the selection of the variable for domestic economic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

External shocks have a notable influence on the macroeconomic fluctuations of emerging economies. However, there is limited theoretical and empirical evidence on how dependence on a single commodity export affects the transmission of external shocks in these economies. This study uses data from 1998 to 2019 to estimate a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model for the economies of Ethiopia, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa, focusing on the price of their leading export commodities. The study examines the relationship between fluctuations in export commodity prices and economic activity over time. Most of the findings are consistent with the theoretical framework and empirical evidence on emerging economies, which typically react to external shocks, although the responses vary across economies. The study shows that a shock to export commodity prices induces a more pronounced output response in low-income economies with lower shock-absorbing capacity. Export commodity prices are identified as a crucial transmission channel of external shocks to emerging market economies, highlighting the importance of paying distinct attention to this sector in macroeconomic modeling. The results are robust to different prior specifications and choices of lag lengths for exogenous variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present analysis has explored the effect of external shocks on the predictability of remittance outflows, by relying on an unbalanced panel of 24 developed countries over the period from 1996 to 2020. The indicator of predictability of remittance outflows for a given country in a given year is the deviation of the remittance outflows (as a share of gross domestic product) from its trend. Results are obtained by means of the within-fixed effects estimator, and indicate that external shocks reduce the predictability of remittance outflows, with a larger negative effect on the positive predictability of these capital outflows than on the negative predictability of these capital outflows. The negative effect of external shocks on the predictability of remittance outflows operates through the economic growth channel, with the magnitude of this negative effect being higher in countries with low economic growth rates. Finally, external shocks reduce the predictability of remittance outflows in countries that experience a decline in migrant inflows. This finding has implications for the economic and development prospects of migrants' countries of origin. JEL Classification: F24, F43, O11 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enterprises opt for alliances to bolster supply chain resilience (SCR) against external shocks. Yet, studies on the impact of strategic alliances on SCR from an operations management perspective are still lacking. This study develops a supply chain network (SCN) cascading failure model that accommodates the presence of strategic alliances, drawing upon complex network theory and cascading failure theory. Using numerical simulations and empirical examples, the study delves into how enterprises can effectively enhance their SCR by forming strategic alliances and appropriately allocating redundant resources. The findings reveal that: (I) Strategic alliances enhance SCR; (II) When enterprises maintain a degree of redundancy, the strengthening effect of alliances on SCR is even more pronounced, particularly under significant external shocks; and (III) In the context of cascading failures, disruptions to smaller enterprises have a more pronounced effect on SCR. Notably, weak-weak alliances contribute more to SCR than strong-strong alliances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – Motivated by the negative effect of external shocks on the domestic economy, this study explores the role of financial sector development in absorbing the effect of external shocks on macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach – Autoregressive distributed lag and fully modify ordinary least square are used to examine the moderating effect of financial development in the link between external shocks and macroeconomic volatilities in Nigeria between 1986Q1 and 2019Q4. External shock is proxy using oil price shock, and financial development is proxy by domestic credit to the private sector and market capitalisation. At the same time, macroeconomic volatility is proxy by output and inflation volatilities. Macroeconomic volatilities are generated using generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH 1,1). Findings – The results indicate that domestic credit to the private sector significantly reduces output and inflation volatilities in Nigeria in the short and long run. However, market capitalisation promotes macroeconomic volatility. More specifically, financial development indicators play different roles in curtaining macroeconomic volatilities. The results also reveal that external shocks stimulate macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria in the short and long run. Nevertheless, the effects of external shocks on macroeconomic volatilities are reduced when the role of financial development is incorporated. Practical implications – This study, therefore, concludes that strong financial sector development serves as a significant shock absorber in reducing the adverse effect of external shock on the domestic economy. Originality/value – This study contributes to the extant studies by introducing a country-specific analysis into the empirical examination of how financial development can moderate the influence of external shock on macroeconomic volatilities.

The study aims to measure the impact of macro shocks (internal & external) on the Iraqi economy in general and on the agricultural sector in particular, by measuring the impact of some macro variables on the gross domestic product and then the agricultural output through the use of two-stage least squares, as the results of estimating the relationship showed In the long term, all economic variables addressed in this research have significant effects on the gross domestic product through joint integration. The most influential of these variables is government spending, , then the exchange rate rate, taxes, and finally the inflation rate, and when the economic variables deviate in the long term Short from their long-run equilibrium values by one unit for each, 67% of this deviation is corrected per year, meaning that the GDP will take approximately a year and a half to return to its equilibrium value, as the response impulse function analysis showed that when Shocks in some economic variables, their impact appears significantly in the long term, and the study recommends paying attention to the international economic transformations affecting the agricultural sector, through adopting appropriate agricultural policies, and employing the achievements of science and technology in order to use modern agricultural techniques locally, in addition to transferring and settling them, as well as reducing Inflation rates are at low and acceptable levels, The researcher also recommends intensifying studies and scientific research on the agricultural sector to delve deeper into the problems that this sector suffers from and find appropriate solutions to them.

This paper explores the environmental and economic resilience of the regions within the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (AZRF). We define a region’s environmental and economic resilience as its capacity to withstand external shocks, independently restore the balance between its economy and environment, and transform while maintaining or improving the balance between its environmental and economic systems. The study’s relevance stems from the rapid industrialization of the Russian Arctic in recent years and the constraints on investment in environmental technologies, green production, and management. The study discusses an analysis of macroeconomic, environmental, and economic indicators of the Russian Arctic regions, examining their interrelations during the pandemic crisis and under the pressure of Western sanctions. From 2018 to 2022, the anthropogenic impact on the environment in the Russian Arctic gradually declined, although the situation varied for individual indicators depending on trends in the regional sectors. Regions were identified that lead in environmental and economic resilience as well as those showing increased anthropogenic impact despite declining industrial production. A multidimensional classification of regions in the Russian Arctic was developed based on indicators characterizing the state of the environmental and economic spheres. Clusters of regions with high, low, and limited levels of environmental and economic resilience were identified. The study revealed that the macroeconomic situation in these regions is more dynamic than their environmental and economic conditions. Macroeconomic indicators in the Arctic regions demonstrate different trends during periods of external shocks. Overall, the Russian Arctic economy was sensitive to the 2020 crisis; the 2022 sanctions had a negative impact on economies focused on Western markets, and in 2023, macroeconomic dynamics slowed down across all regions of the Russian Arctic. Further research is necessary to understand the factors influencing the environmental and economic resilience of the Russian Arctic regions under current conditions.

The article presents a review of publications devoted to the approaches to assessing the impact of external shocks on the economy in general and on certain aspects of taxation in particular. It considers both studies that assess this impact by analyzing macroeconomic indicators (less often — budget indicators) and building econometric models (mainly SVAR and VAR models are used in this case), and studies in which various authors propose their own indicators to assess this impact (most often they are either sustainability indicators or stress indicators). Special attention is paid to publications the subject of which is the impact of new challenges on the tax system. A separate block includes publications in which the above issues are considered in relation to the Russian tax system. These are not only scientific articles on the topic, but also documents of international organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund, OECD, World Bank, etc. In addition, the article provides an overview of publications of foreign scientific institutes and research centers. Sanctions imposed on the economy of the Russian Federation are a particular case of an external shock. Thus, a review of publications assessing the impact of new challenges (by the example of sanctions) on the tax system of the Russian Federation is presented. The authors conclude that to assess the impact of new challenges on the tax system it is more advisable to use indicators based on statistical tax reporting.

This paper examines the effects of macro-financial shocks on bank liquidity creation in Mongolia, a developing and commodity-exporting economy, using a structural Bayesian vector autoregression (SBVAR). Ten structural shocks (three external and seven domestic shocks) are identified using a triangular factorization. The main results are (i) the measured bank liquidity creation (as a share of total assets) is procyclical and negatively correlated with the liquidity coverage ratio in the banking sector; (ii) external shocks (the US monetary policy, Chinese economic activity, and changes in the global commodity market) have statistically significant and economically major effects on the liquidity creation. Lending rate, NPL ratio, foreign exchange reserves, and competition in the banking sector are key domestic determinants of liquidity creation; (iii) liquidity creation's main components respond differently to the US federal funds rate and lending rate shocks. External and financial shocks have contributed to the liquidity creation passing through movements in (illiquid assets + liquid liabilities) component; (iv) monetary policy can be an effective counter-cyclical policy instrument in stabilizing the economic and financial cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International food trade plays a crucial role in enhancing global food security by connecting regions with diverse agricultural capabilities and resource endowments. This study employs complex network analysis and ecological network resilience to investigate the historical dynamics of global staple food trade network resilience from 1986 to 2020. Additionally, structural decomposition and econometric analysis are used to explore the drivers of resilience from both internal and external perspectives. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in the resilience dynamics of global staple food trade when faced with external shocks such as COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions. Staple foods, i.e., wheat, rice, and potatoes have demonstrated increased resilience in response to pandemic-related disruptions. However, the aggregated staple food network is more adversely affected by geopolitical tensions compared to the five individual staple food networks, with a more pronounced inhibitory effect on its resilience. Potatoes emerge as the most resilient staple, while soybeans exhibit the lowest resilience. Interestingly, the inclusion of a greater variety of staple foods in the aggregated basket does not necessarily enhance resilience. For instance, integrating potatoes, characterized by high network efficiency, increases resilience, whereas integrating soybeans, with low network efficiency, reduces resilience. Furthermore, the diversity of trade flows and trade partners plays a crucial role in enhancing resilience. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to bolster the resilience of the global food trade network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although it is argued that organizational leaders' perceptions of external shocks determine organizations' willingness to prepare for future shocks, insights on the sensemaking processes leading local politicians to invest in adaptive capacity building after a crisis are scarce. Therefore, this study examines how politicians' COVID-19 risk perceptions relate to their proclivity to invest in organizational adaptive capacity building. Results, based on data from 710 local Flemish politicians, confirm that perceived severity of COVID-19 relates to politicians' willingness to invest in adaptive capacity building, while sociodemographic and event-related variables as well as socio-political attitudes are relevant predictors of politicians' risk perceptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper complements the relatively few existing studies on the macroeconomic effects of poverty in developing countries, by investigating the effect of poverty volatility on tax revenue instability. The empirical analysis has been conducted using an unbalanced panel dataset of 97 developing countries covering the period of 1980–2017 and primarily the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. Findings have revealed that least developed countries tend to experience a positive tax revenue instability effect of poverty volatility, while poverty volatility results in lower tax revenue instability in relatively advanced countries. Additionally, poverty volatility dampens the instability of tax revenue when poverty rates are low, and enhances it when countries face a greater extent of external shocks. From a policy perspective, this analysis shows that it would be essential for policymakers to dampen the volatility of poverty rates (notably in countries with high poverty rates) if they were to ensure the stability of tax revenue or reduce its instability, given the adverse effect of tax revenue instability on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human capital plays a vital role in poverty-stricken households' efforts to cope with external shocks. Improving the human capital of poverty-stricken households to help them address external shocks can enhance the sustainability of poverty-stricken household livelihoods and support poverty alleviation. In this study, households with dependent children and older members were selected from questionnaires covering 6,463 poverty-stricken households from 33 poverty alleviation districts and counties in Chongqing municipality, China. Multiple linear regression model and stepwise regression methods were then used to compare the effects of the number of household members supported and the number of those working on the increase in income among poverty-stricken and nonpoverty-stricken households. Finally, the correlations between policy measures, dependent household members and household labor were examined. The results show the following: (1) Policy measures can alleviate the negative impact of a household's dependent population on household income. (2) Poverty-stricken households' access to policy support is closely related to the characteristics of their human capital. The household's dependent members and laborers are effectively protected by safety net and cargo net policies. (3) Policy measures can mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the income of nonagricultural laborers while increasing the income of agricultural laborers. The findings show that the ability of poverty-stricken households to overcome poverty and deal with external shocks can be increased by revitalizing rural industries, linking the development of rural industries with the income of poverty-stricken households, and rationally using rural labor resources.

Purpose: This research aims to examine the economic dependency of Pakistan, exploring the historical, internal, geopolitical, and structural factors that have contributed to its current reliance on external sources for economic sustenance. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study employs a qualitative research method, drawing insights from a systematic review of scholarly articles, reports, historical sources, and policy texts. Findings: Through a comprehensive analysis, this paper probes the reasons behind Pakistan's economic dependency, highlights the implications of this phenomenon, and suggests potential strategies for achieving greater economic self-sufficiency. Pakistan's economic dependency stems from a complex interplay of various factors, including aid dependence, structural weaknesses, geopolitical dynamics, and limited technological advancement. Implications/Originality/Value: Addressing these issues is crucial for achieving sustainable economic growth and reducing vulnerability to external shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theory of external shocks suggests that the underdevelopment of low-income countries is due to external shocks of various kinds: economic or political ones. This study endeavors to analyze the real causes that hindered and are hindering the Syrian economy from transitioning towards a knowledge-based economy before and during the conflict. To achieve these objectives, we apply the Documentary Research Method (DSM) and the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) to measure the causal impact of the internal and external shocks on a number of innovation and knowledge creation–related variables, and the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to measure the toll of different shocks on the transition to knowledge economy in Syria. The results indicate that, in the long run, external shocks do not provide a comprehensive explanation of the failure in building a knowledge-based economy in Syria. On the contrary, internal shocks in general, and the shock of liberal policies, are largely responsible for Syria's failure to transition to a knowledge-based economy, and for the outbreak and development of the conflict. In light of the results, we propose a set of economic policies for the reconstruction of Syria based on a non-classical approach that orients the reconstruction process towards building a knowledge-based economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subject of study is resilience of the tax revenues of the Russian regions. The aim of the study is to identify the impact of external shocks (sanctions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and fluctuations in oil prices) on tax revenue stress in the federal districts and subjects of the Russian Federation. For this, the following were developed: the tax revenue stress index, which is the difference between the moving standard deviation and moving rate of growth of annual tax revenues, and the methodology of its decomposition by source. Based on this index, estimates of tax revenue stress in Russian regions from January 2013 to July 2023 were obtained for the prepandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic (new sanctions) periods. It was found that tax revenue stress correlates significantly positively with oil price stress with a lag of 2–7 months, but the response of regions to oil market conditions is different. According to the estimates obtained, the average tax revenue stress in the considered period was higher in the Far Eastern, Ural, and Siberian federal districts, and in the first two districts, it was also characterized by the greatest variability. The lowest average tax revenue stress levels were observed in the Southern, Northwestern, and Central federal districts; in the latter district, it also showed the greatest stability. Decomposition of tax revenue stress in the country showed that during periods of external shocks, the Urals Federal District made the greatest contribution to the growth of all-Russian stress, and the Central Federal District was the main stress damper. During a period of relative stability, the Ural Federal District takes on the role of a stress damper. The COVID-19 shock had a significant impact on the tax revenues of most regions, although in 27 out of 85 federal subjects, the average stress decreased, while in 36 regions, its maximum value decreased. In the postpandemic period, tax revenue stress in 66 of the 85 regions was lower than in the previous two periods. However, the capital cities and a number of other regions have already felt the impact of the new sanctions of 2022. Stress behaves abnormally in the Far Eastern border regions and Murmansk oblast, associated with the specific factors of resilience of their regional economies and the peculiarities of specialization. The results can be useful for interregional comparisons and managing tax revenue stress in Russian regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The paper presents a cross-country analysis of seven countries in the MENA region and explores the effects of COVID-19 on educational policymaking. The paper uses a quasi-thematic literature review to highlight the emerging themes related to the quality of education during the pandemic. The paper investigates the educational trends in seven MENA region countries and provides descriptive analysis to understand if there were changes from 2016 to 2020. In order to investigate these trends, the study uses the conceptualization of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 4) “Quality of education.” The analysis is based on the data from the World Bank Development indicators. The paper’s evidence identifies a difference in the level of government expenditure on education within the MENA region. Pre and during COVID-19 provides crucial insights such as all countries increased their government expenditure on education except Egypt and Bahrain. The paper further addresses the contributing factors to the educational gaps in the region, such as digital exclusion, inequality (income and gender), and the government’s budget constraints during the pandemic. This study presents recommendations to bridge these identified gaps in the post-pandemic era.

This paper analyzes the contribution of supply, demand, and labor market shocks, to the evolution of regional production and inflation of manufactured goods in Mexico within the context of the pandemic. Under the identification of a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (SBVAR) model with zero and sign restrictions, it is found that since 2021, external demand shocks increased their contribution relative to local shocks in explaining the growth of manufactured goods production in all regions except the South; meanwhile, external supply shocks increased their positive contribution in explaining inflationary pressures across all regions. On the other hand, from 2022 onwards, labor supply shocks have contributed to the production and inflation of manufactured goods mainly in the Northern and North-Central regions, while wage bargaining shocks have emerged as drivers of inflationary pressures in all regions.

The Russian economy is operating under severe strains and limitations in foreign trade. The unevenness of economic space, regions’ openness, specialization and industrial efficiency cause differences in both economic growth and the state administration system. The article pioneers and tests a theoretical-methodological approach to assessing shock robustness of single-industry regions in the context of a harsh foreign economic environment and justifies approaches to adjusting regional development policy of the state. In the paper, shock robustness of a region’s economy is viewed as the ability to recover, continue a long-term development trend, and keep the potential for adaptation and structural changes. The research methodology consists of regional economics and management theories, and the theory of shocks. The research methods include regression analysis and time series analysis (the Hurst exponent, the Hodrick–Prescott filter). The empirical base is open data for single-industry regions. The study reveals that single-industry regions differ in shock robustness; there are regions with high susceptibility to foreign trade changes and industrial production volatility (with high foreign trade intensity – Sverdlovsk, Vologda, Chelyabinsk oblasts and Krasnoyarsk Krai) and regions with limited structural adaptation reserves (with low foreign trade intensity – Lipetsk and Murmansk oblasts) that require the adoption of problem-oriented managerial decisions. We systematize strategic avenues for single-industry regions vulnerable to external shocks, namely enhancing diversification and improving the sectoral structure of the economy and exports. The study adds to the understanding of industrial regions’ problem areas and government support measures facilitating their adaptation to instability.

The paper presents a cross-country analysis of 25 low and lower-middle-income countries to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on educational policymaking. The study utilises variables from the Internet Inclusive Index and the Digital Skills Gap Index to explore the relationship between internet access and digital skills gaps in these countries. A descriptive and correlation analysis is conducted to understand trends and associations between the variables from data for the selected countries. The analysis shows a positive correlation between internet domains and digital skills gap scores. The paper also presents insights from low and middle-income countries to understand the challenges and responses to e-learning policy during the Pandemic. The evidence from the analysis suggests that countries with higher scores on internet domains pre-pandemic were in a better position to absorb the external shocks caused by the Pandemic. The paper's findings highlight the importance of addressing the digital divide and promoting internet inclusivity in these countries to improve their ability to adapt to external shocks and ensure continuity of learning during crises such as the COVID-19 Pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the currency crisis in 1997, Thailand has employed two different approaches to respond to external shocks to its economy. The first approach aims to construct a strong state that can effectively manage crises and seeks to become a high-income country through industrial upgrading. This approach was manifested in the Kingdom of Thailand Modernization Framework (KTMF) initiated by the Thaksin government. The second approach relies on more flexible social networks, favoring resilience rather than economic growth to ensure social development. The Sufficiency Economy Philosophy proposed by King Bhumibol was representative of this approach. Tending to avoid extreme thought and actions, Thais have preferred a middle path when pursuing development policies. This is visible in the balancing act between the Eastern Seaboard Projects (typical of Newly Industrializing Countries) and Kosit's rural development project (typical of Newly Agro-Industrializing Countries) in the early 1980s, and then again between the state strategy of Thailand 4.0 (2017-36) on the one hand, and the World Bank joint proposal for inclusive growth (2016) and the BCG Economy Model (2019), on the other. However, such Thai-style balancing policies have revealed their limitations in the face of structural problems, such as labor shortages due to the aging society and the lack of human resource development in the realm of digital innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exposure to singular or overlapping external shocks, such as rainfall extremes, armed conflict, and COVID-19, may catalyze a shift in gendered power dynamics within affected households as they cope with associated threats to their safety and livelihoods. Despite evidence that women are disproportionately affected by such shocks, little scientific work has assessed the separate and combined impacts of these three external shocks on women's lives. In this study, we examined the distinct and overlapping associations between extreme events—growing season rainfall anomalies, armed conflict during the growing season, and COVID-19—and women's daily decision-making power in Burkina Faso. We employed longitudinal survey data from IPUMS Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA), a complex and spatially referenced dataset. These data were collected from a population-representative sample of women of reproductive age (15–49 years) in Burkina Faso across two timepoints: 2019/2020 (December 2019–February 2020) and 2020/2021 (December 2020–March 2021). PMA data from Burkina Faso contain detailed questions on women's sociodemographic characteristics, health, and household dynamics. We spatially linked these data with (1) external rainfall data, (2) armed conflict event data, and (3) PMA coronavirus-specific follow-up survey data (containing COVID-19 knowledge and prevention behaviors) collected in June and July of 2020. Using log-binomial general estimating equation (GEE) models, we examined the relationship between extreme events—wetter-than-usual growing season, armed conflict (that resulted in at least one death), and COVID-19—and increased daily decision-making power among women. We found strong and significant associations between experiencing a wetter-than-usual growing season (i.e., greater than 1 standard deviation above 10-year mean) and women being less likely to have increased daily decision-making power in the household compared those experiencing usual rainfall during the growing season [prevalence ratio (PR): 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.56, 0.87]. Similarly, residing in an area that was more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e., where 80% or more of respondents in the community reported staying home to avoid COVID-19) was also associated with women being less likely to have increased daily decision-making power in the household [PR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.91]. We did not observe any significant association between armed conflict and increased daily decision-making among women [PR: 1.15, 95% CI: 0.84, 1.57]. These trends indicate that women's decision-making power within partnerships may be negatively impacted by certain household shocks. Centering women (and other marginalized and vulnerable communities) in the leadership, implementation, and as key beneficiaries of crisis response efforts may be an effective strategy to combat some of these constraints on women's decision-making and even empower them within their households and communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research delves into the intricate dynamics underlying the impact of investments on global output, employing the Leontief matrix as a robust analytical framework. Investments wield a profound influence on economies worldwide, with varying effects contingent upon investment types, development levels of countries, and external factors such as trade conflicts and global shocks. The diverse range of investment forms, including physical capital, human capital, R&D, and technological investments, engenders distinct implications for productivity, innovation, and efficiency. Developing and developed economies navigate unique trajectories, with investments playing a pivotal role in bridging infrastructure gaps, improving technology, and spurring growth. However, external disruptions, such as trade wars and global shocks, introduce an element of complexity, reshaping investment patterns and altering global output trajectories. This study centers on harnessing the Leontief matrix's prowess to evaluate the interplay of investments and global output, focusing on the Romanian economy. By analyzing input–output tables, encompassing 105 branches aggregated into 10 sectors, the research captures the intricate connections between economic segments. Notably, the Romanian context reveals the volatility of the matrix coefficients, an outcome of ongoing transitional processes, technological advancements, and fluctuating relative prices. In unraveling the intricate threads weaving investments and global output, this study contributes to a nuanced comprehension of these multifaceted interactions. The findings underscore the significance of tailoring investment strategies to specific economic contexts and advocate for robust frameworks, such as the input–output model, to inform policy decisions and drive sustainable growth in an increasingly complex global economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the externalisation of labour as a strategic response to a temporary exogenous shock (i.e. COVID-19). Combining ideas from employment externalisation theory and the CATO framework (which are both extensions of transaction costs economics), we argue that firms that are hit harder by the COVID-19 shock are more likely to plan hiring freelancers that replace permanent employees. The mechanism we argue for is that firms seek to reposition quickly, which lowers comparative adjustment costs and reduces constraints on switching employment modes in future, depending on the extent of task co-specialisation. Analysing survey data obtained from 1,090 Danish small medium enterprises during the initial COVID-19 lockdown supports our hypotheses. Our findings contribute to the research on strategic responses to crises and provide novel understanding of why firms may externalise employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the results of the analysis of shifts in the spatial structure of production occurring under the influence of external shocks. The consequences for the regional dynamics of the shock from the introduction of economic sanctions after the annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol to Russia and the fall in energy prices, as well as the shock caused by lockdowns during the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 are examined. It is shown that in 2021 the consequences of both shocks were overcome. In the process of adapting the spatial structure, there was a further shift in production to the western regions of the country. The growth drivers in the regions were the service sector and the manufacturing industry. The growth in the production of manufacturing industries in all federal districts was accompanied by a decrease in the share of high-tech and medium-tech high-level industries in the processing structure. It is shown that under the influence of shocks, the spatial structure of production changes in the direction opposite to the priorities of regional development stated in official documents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: is to develop the model for stress testing of the impact of external constraints of Russian regions in the context of foreign economic constraints 2022–2023.Methods: the research is based on the theory of economic dynamics, regional economy and spatial development, the concept of the BANI world; the methodological basis of the study is a scenario approach to the formation of the stress testing model and the algorithm for determining the expected impact based on the machine learning method – the artificial neural network.Results: the study of scientific publications on the research topic, analysis of shock events, post-shock consequences (2006–2022) made it possible to substantiate feasibility of testing and differentiating the response of Russian regions to external constraints, applying the criteria of “shock-resistant” development, classifying economic space and identifying the territory with “shock-resistant” and “non-shockresistant”reactions. The model of regions stress testing has been developed, industrial and sectoral (67.6% importance) and spatial (32.4%) stabilization factors have been identified, areas of vulnerability to the restrictions of 2022-2023 and industrial regions with the potential for “non-shock-resistant” type of reaction have been identified.Conclusions and Relevance: the reaction of regions to external economic shocks (the duration of the decline period and the intensity of recovery growth) is determined by the totality of the production and spatial characteristics of the regions. The results of the study are important for the development of the theory of regional economy; they can be used byfederal and regional executive authorities of the Russian Federation.

with the introduction of the euro as the domestic currency, economies have faced inflationary pressures caused by price convergence towards higher levels. During the last period of significant negative shocks from the environment, by entering the euro area, the negative effects of the likelihood of inflation caused by the introduction of the euro may be absent.

The problem of ensuring the resilience of regional economic systems to shocks and upheavals has become especially urgent in recent years. The conceptual approach that forms its theoretical basis remains vague and inconsistent, primarily due to the complexity and multifaceted nature of this issue. This necessitates further research aimed at deepening the understanding of the regional resilience phenomenon through the formation of a knowledge structure model of this problem field. The purpose of the work is to identify key aspects and current directions for the development of the concept of regional economic resilience based on the method of bibliometric analysis. The methodological basis of the study was the method of bibliometric analysis combined with network analysis methods. The empirical basis of the study consisted of publications on the topic of regional economic resilience downloaded from the international scientometric database Web of Science. The instrumental basis for the analysis included VOSviewer program, version 1.6.20. During the first stage of the study, the author identified the dynamics of research interest in this topic for the period from 1995 to 2023, the most cited authors and their country affiliation. At the second stage, keywords in this subject field were analyzed, which made it possible to determine the most relevant aspects of studying the problem of regional economic resilience. In addition, clusters of keywords that form individual scientific directions within the analyzed issues were visualized. Analysis of the connections of individual keywords made it possible to identify the factors of regional sustainability most often analyzed by researchers (economic specialization/diversification of the regional economy, institutions, entrepreneurship, innovation, and others). The results of the study expand the understanding of the conceptual approach to regional economic resilience by presenting a holistic view of the problem, identifying and summarizing the various approaches of the authors, and presenting the structure of knowledge in this problem field. Economic resilience is seen not only as the ability of an economy to withstand shocks and recover quickly, but also as the ability of an economy to adapt to constant environmental and social changes. Sustainability is the result of the interaction of internal and external key participants in regional economic systems (economic entities, decision makers, representatives of society), in conjunction with the internal structure of the regional economy and regional potential (resources and human capital).

The paper presents a cross-country analysis of 25 low and lower-middle-income countries to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on educational policymaking. The study utilises variables from the Internet Inclusive Index and the Digital Skills Gap Index to explore the relationship between internet access and digital skills gaps in these countries. A descriptive and correlation analysis is conducted to understand trends and associations between the variables from data for the selected countries. The analysis shows a positive correlation between internet domains and digital skills gap scores. The paper also presents insights from low and middle-income countries to understand the challenges and responses to e-learning policy during the Pandemic. The evidence from the analysis suggests that countries with higher scores on internet domains pre-pandemic were in a better position to absorb the external shocks caused by the Pandemic. The paper’s findings highlight the importance of addressing the digital divide and promoting internet inclusivity in these countries to improve their ability to adapt to external shocks and ensure continuity of learning during crises such as the COVID-19 Pandemic.

AbstractWe examined factors that influence farm size sustenance and food consumption status of rural farm households. We used survey data comprising a sample size of 390 households. The study employed quantile and ordered logistic models to estimate the impacts of farm sustenance indicators on farm size cultivated and food consumption, respectively. We found that farm size is influenced positively by input expenditures, household sizes, types of crops, farm credits and subsidies. Besides, lack of farm labour adversely affected farm sizes of some categories of farmers. Besides, increasing farm input expenditures, lack of labour, farm credits and subsidies reduce the food consumption status of the households. We recommend that policymakers consider an integrated approach to farm sustenance and specific segregated attention to the individual categories of food consumption status of farm households. These could be achieved through the provision of farm credits and subsidies among other factors that sustain farm sizes and food consumption of the households.

AbstractThe level of causation and interdependencies among three commodities (cocoa, gold, and Brent crude oil), five banking sector performance indicators (Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Non-Performing Loans (NPL), Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA) and Core Liquid assets to total assets (CLATA)), and three general macroeconomic indicators (Inflation, Exchange rate and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty) are explored in this study. As a result, the wavelet techniques are employed to investigate time-frequency and frequency-dependent nexus in the Ghanaian context. In terms of time-frequency, a mix of negative and positive bi-causality among commodities, banking sector performance indicators, and macroeconomic indicators are found. Outcomes from the wavelet multipleprovide that these variables are highly integrated, with the exchange rate leading in the long-run. Hence, implying that exchange rate in Ghana has a high susceptibility to shocks before the other variables in the study. We advocate Government of Ghana and policy-makers should fine-tune policies that take into account the impact on other economic factors. Policies should be initiated to minimise fluctuations in the exchange rate. To limit the adverse impact of inflation and GEPU, it is required that effective and efficient country-level policies geared towards stability be initiated to resuscitate the economy.

This paper develops an estimated New Keynesian model of a commodity-exporting economy for an integrated policy framework, integrating the full range of policies used in practice and featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, macro-financial linkages, and transmission channels of external shocks. We jointly examine the optimal conduct of conventional and unconventional monetary policies, macroprudential policy, foreign exchange intervention, capital flow management, and fiscal policy based on the model. The policy analysis framework is applied empirically to Mongolia, a small open and developing economy highly dependent on imports and commodity exports. We find that an eclectic policy mix improves policy trade-offs and a lack of cooperation among policy authorities may result in conflicting policies, hence suboptimal results for overall economic stability. Our optimal policy analysis shows that policy mix adjustments should differ depending on the type of shocks and the policy objectives. The results suggest that the policy analysis framework can help policymakers choose their policy mix adjustments to deal with external shocks in an integrated and optimal way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study is devoted to the challenges for the fiscal policies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, resulting from the strong growth of public debt and its servicing costs under the conditions of the pandemic and war shocks. The purpose of the study is to answer the questions: i) what factors caused the sharp increase in sovereign debt yields? ii) is there a correlation between the degree of implementation of sound economic governance (SEG) principles and the cost of servicing sovereign debt? ii) how strong was the response of the sovereign deficit and debt to the shocks caused by the pandemic and war in Ukraine? iii) does the rising cost of servicing debt threaten the sustainability of public finances? v) do the adopted SEG principles remain relevant during periods of shocks? The study covered the 6 largest economies in this part of Europe, i.e. Poland, Romania, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, and Slovakia, but its results apply indirectly to many other countries. The results were confronted with a plan for reforming the EU's economic governance system in order to identify the fundamental challenges facing the countries studied in this context. On the basis of the study, recommendations were put forward for shaping the assumptions of the state debt management strategy and multi-year financial plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study deals with determining the structure of international currency reserves of central banks in terms of adequacy and accumulation criteria. The authors argue that the exchange rate regime is not neutral to political regimes. Autocracies gravitate more toward fixed exchange rate regimes, while democracies, on the contrary, toward floating exchange rates. This is also related to the issue of central bank independence. The authors conducted a study of the evolution of metrics used to assess the adequacy of currency reserves. The features of indicators for assessing foreign exchange reserves (Reddy, Guidotti-Greenspan, ARA criteria) are determined, which focus on the issue of taking into account capital flows in determining the adequacy of reserves and their hypertrophy. The advantages of the ARA criterion are given, which are manifested in the desire of countries to accumulate foreign exchange reserves with a prudent purpose. Disagreements in the assessment of the volume and structure of foreign exchange reserves lie in the high volatility of global capital flows, which gives rise to the phenomenon of "excessive capital flows". Particular attention is paid to the problem of the theoretical approaches explaining the process of accumulation of currency reserves. In particular, evasion of structural reforms, "new" or monetary mercantilism, financial mercantilism, prudential and competitive accumulation. In Ukraine, for example, there is a demand for structural reforms, but the political time horizon limit is often an obstacle to their effective implementation. Attention is focused on the issue of independence of central banks in terms of political regimes, which is manifested in the peculiarities of the structure and accumulation of currency reserves. The originality of the article is due to the need to define new theoretical approaches to assess the adequacy of currency reserves in view of the political system that determines the regime of exchange rates and the design of institutions of macro-financial stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, a common phenomenon in the economy is a global increase in various fluctuations, which are both cyclical and non-cyclical – shock – in nature. The subject of modern discussions is often the discussion of the short-term impact of shocks and the adequacy of the market mechanism to the challenges created by shocks. Overcoming the consequences of the impact of various shocks on the economy, as well as the formation of its shock resistance, is associated by most authors with increased market flexibility, increased government spending and large-scale money emissions – traditional countercyclical tools. At the same time, today exogenous shocks (technological breakthroughs and restrictions, pandemic, sanctions and embargoes) are the most destructive force, which, being outsiders in relation to the economic system, are not sufficiently sensitive to economic countermeasures. Purpose: supplementing the existing methodology for studying economic shocks with new principles and typology, reflecting their connection with structural changes – the key to shock-resistance of the economy. Methods: analysis of the works of Russian and foreign authors in the field of research, generalization of scientific approaches and critical analysis of theoretical positions. The results represent a typology of economic shocks, structured in terms of a number of principles for their study and specification criteria, which form the author's contribution to the development of the methodology for studying non-cyclical phenomena in the economy. Constructive criticism of the existing approaches made it possible to develop a theoretical proposition about the relationship between economic shocks and the structure of the economy, positive changes in which should form the basis of anti-shock regulation. Conclusions. The existing approaches to the analysis of economic shocks adequately describe their impact on economic cycles and are based on the main achievement of the modern market economy – the flexibility of markets and their regulation. At the same time, the strongest exogenous shocks observed today, the impact of which on the transformational Russian economy can become destructive, actualize the search for structural principles to counteract them, which cannot be implemented both without an appropriate theory and methodology, an important part of which is a structurally determined typology of shocks.

This article theoretically and empirically investigates the determinants of inflation in a sample of 83 countries, including countries that adopt an inflation targeting regime (ITR) and countries that do not, for the period 2000 to 2021. The hypothesis that guides the research is that the recent events or shocks in the global economy (the subprime crisis, the “Eurozone” crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and, more recently, the war in Ukraine, among others) have resulted in supply shocks – exchange rates, food and energy – causing a rise in inflation and bringing recessive effects that may be more pronounced in ITR countries, given the greater institutional rigidity of the regime. The empirical part of the research includes an analysis of the determinants of inflation in the sample of ITR and non-ITR countries, with a focus on variables that represent supply shocks, in addition to a proxy for the existence of global conflicts, the latter being a potential contribution of the research. The main results, despite the differences between developed and developing economies, suggest that the commodity index, exchange rate variations, and global conflicts positively impacted inflation in the analyzed period.

This study examines multiple shocks to the external market of China's manufacturing industry based on a trade model with multi-level unobserved factors. We find that the global external market of main industries is suffering constant downward shocks since 2008, while the traditional (non-traditional) markets are further affected by downward (upward) shocks. Private enterprises are more sensitive to shocks. Further, the adjustment of US trade policy toward China has caused China's exports to the US to deviate from the normal path by around 10% from 2015 to 2019, while having no significant effect on China's exports to the other traditional markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What effect does extreme weather have on climate policy? Existing studies show that weather shocks have negative economic impacts and increase public awareness of climate change. These findings help identify the impacts of climate change on economic and social systems, and provide reasons for governments to adopt climate policy reforms. However, questions remain about the overall link between local extreme weather shocks and government climate policy. I investigate the effect of temperature shocks and natural disasters on a range of national, international, and subnational climate policies in samples spanning 1990–2018. I find that neither temperature shocks nor natural disasters generate climate mitigation reforms. Given that climate policy is currently insufficient to manage climate change and climate impacts are expected to increase this century, these findings suggest that future climate shocks are unlikely to catalyze meaningful climate action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]