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In most cases, researchers assume that control of corruption, rule of law, accountability, and government expenditure tend to have a positive impact on government effectiveness. Nonetheless, recent theoretical and empirical evidence supports a mixed relationship between these variables. The paper, therefore, seeks to answer the extent to which corruption, the rule of law, accountability, and government expenditure affect government effectiveness. We employed Johansen method of cointegration and vector error correction model to examine the long-run and short-run relationship between the variables under study. By using Sri Lankan data covering the period from 1996 to 2020, we find a significant and positive relationship only between the control of corruption and government effectiveness both in the long run and in the short run. Yet, rule of law has a positive and significant impact on government effectiveness only in the long run. Voice and accountability, and government expenditure affect the government's effectiveness negatively in the long run and positively in the short run. The article demonstrates that weak anti-corruption mechanisms and weak legal and criminal justice systems seem to have a detrimental impact on government effectiveness in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to develop a model of the real equilibrium CZK/EUR exchange rate with all relevant explanatory variables. Emphasis will be placed on examining the longest possible time horizon, with a period of real convergence, but also economic stagnation. The model is based on the theoretical BEER approach using a cointegration or error correction model that distinguishes between short-term and long-term relationships. The results show that the Czech koruna strengthens when the productivity differential, terms of trade differential or gross fixed capital formation increase, while the koruna weakens when the VIX index representing global risk aversion increases. For the real interest rate differential, the hypothesis that the koruna strengthens in the short run during the improvement but weakens in the long run probably due to the country's risk premium, was confirmed. Moreover, it turned out that the start of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing led to strengthening of the Czech koruna, while the start of the CNB's foreign exchange interventions in 2013 led to weakening of the Czech koruna.

According to many studies, the transmission of oil prices to retail fuel prices is asymmetric. Fuel prices react faster if oil prices rise and more slowly if oil prices fall. Different standard econometric procedures lead to different results. The Linex approach, which is based on formulating the non-linear adjustment cost function, reflects the theory. It uses the generalised method of moments to estimate the reaction functions, which demands many observations.

To address the problem of temperature errors in secondary instruments operating in high- and low-temperature environments, this paper proposed a temperature correction method based on the ARIMA-GM(1,1) model. First, a standard source was connected to a temperature secondary instrument placed in a high- and low-temperature circulation box. The errors between the measurements of the standard source and the secondary instrument could be calculated and obtained a set of error sequences. Second, the error sequences were used to establish an ARI MA model and obtained a set of predicted values. And the residual between the errors and the predicted values could be calculated. To improve the accuracy of the ARIMA model, a GMC(1,1) residual correction model was established based on the residual sequences. Lastly, the ARIMA and the GMC(1,1) models were combined to formulate an ARIMA-GM model that could perform error self-correction for the temperature secondary instrument. In application experiments, the model achieved smaller average relative errors than a traditional ARIMA and hybrid models. Finally, we developed the ARIMA-GM(1,1) model into a software and applied it to cases of actual detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The significance of foreign direct investment (FDI) for the expansion and advancement of emerging economies has long been recognized. Yet, research on the factors that influence FDI inflows is still developing. This study focuses on examining the long- and short-term association between FDI inflows and its determinants, employing ARDL bounds testing approach and Error Correction Model to understand the relationship between the variables under study. The findings evidence the existence long- and short-term association between FDI and domestic investment, inflation, infrastructure, and trade openness. However, market size is observed to be insignificant in influencing FDI inflows. The coefficients of domestic investment, infrastructure and Trade Openness are observed to be significantly positive. The influence of inflation is found to be negative. The study suggests that the Indian economy should accelerate the process of integration with the world economy along with the enhancement of domestic investment and infrastructure facilities to attain higher FDI.

Despite the importance of financial development-international trade nexus and its implication for growth, studies have yet to look at the impact of new financial development indicators developed by the International Monetary Fund on international trade performance in Nigeria. This is one of the few attempts made to examine the elasticity of trade to financial development, given the inconclusive findings that permeate the literature. Therefore, this paper investigates the effect of financial development on aggregate trade performance in Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2021. The empirical framework is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction model. The findings revealed that (i) The ARDL bound test revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium association between the variables; (ii) We find that a unit improvement in financial development induces a 1.1%-1.2% increase in trade performance in the short-run short term and a 9.7% in the long-run; (iii) The results show that a 1% increase in the exchange rate (depreciation) leads to a 0.01% improvement in trade performance in the short-term. The findings have important policy implications. The paper concludes that financial development contributes to trade performance.

The aim of this paper is to develop a model of the real equilibrium CZK/EUR exchange rate with all relevant explanatory variables. Emphasis will be placed on examining the longest possible time horizon, with a period of real convergence, but also economic stagnation. The model is based on the theoretical BEER approach using a cointegration or error correction model that distinguishes between short-term and long-term relationships. The results show that the Czech koruna strengthens when the productivity differential, terms of trade differential or gross fixed capital formation increase, while the koruna weakens when the VIX index representing global risk aversion increases. For the real interest rate differential, the hypothesis that the koruna strengthens in the short run during the improvement but weakens in the long run probably due to the country's risk premium, was confirmed. Moreover, it turned out that the start of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing led to strengthening of the Czech koruna, while the start of the CNB's foreign exchange interventions in 2013 led to weakening of the Czech koruna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of financial development-international trade nexus and its implication for growth, studies have yet to look at the impact of new financial development indicators developed by the International Monetary Fund on international trade performance in Nigeria. This is one of the few attempts made to examine the elasticity of trade to financial development, given the inconclusive findings that permeate the literature. Therefore, this paper investigates the effect of financial development on aggregate trade performance in Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2021. The empirical framework is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction model. The findings revealed that (i) The ARDL bound test revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium association between the variables; (ii) We find that a unit improvement in financial development induces a 1.1%-1.2% increase in trade performance in the short-run short term and a 9.7% in the long-run; (iii) The results show that a 1% increase in the exchange rate (depreciation) leads to a 0.01% improvement in trade performance in the short-term. The findings have important policy implications. The paper concludes that financial development contributes to trade performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines trends and dynamics of the Mining sector of Tanzania over a time span of 100 years. To do so, econometrics analysis is used to estimate cointegration model for trends within the span of time from 1966 till 2023. Qualitative analysis is also undertaken and empirical findings confirm five distinct regimes of mining sector performance since 1898 namely; the gold boom from 1898 till 1950, diamond boom from 1950 up to 1966, drastic fall from 1966 till 1997, recovery from 1997 up to 2010 and gold boom from 2010 to date. Tracing from 2000 when Vision 2025 was adopted, paper estimates show that the mining sector performance has been extraordinary from 1 percent in 1997 to 10 percent share of GDP by 2023 and export contribution has increased from US dollar 26 million in 1997 to 2.9 billion by 2023. Legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks at sectoral and macro level substantially influence the observed performance. The paper shows that the error correction term is correctly signed and statistically significant and, the coefficient of minerals export is statistically significant such that a 1 percent increase in mineral export will lead to a 0. 43 percentage increase of total export in the long run, with 77 percent speed of convergence to equilibrium. In terms of contribution to GDP, the results show that 1 percent increase in minerals production lead to 0.16 percent increase of GDP. Further analysis of the paper demonstrates high intensity of the correlation, integration and linkages effects between mining sector with other sectors particularly manufacturing. Thus, mining sector generally has potential to maximize gains from economic and social development whereas discovery of huge deposits of rare earth elements in Tanzania and availability of wide range of industrial mineral in nearly all regions of Tanzania have a potential of becoming a new backbone of Tanzania and enable manufacturing contribution over 30 percent of GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The foreign reserves sufficiency is important to maintain macroeconomic stability. The main objective of this paper is to model the behaviour of the central bank in accumulating the foreign reserves in the case of Indonesia. Unlike the previous empirical studies, this paper disaggregates the components of foreign reserves into foreign currency, securities, gold, and special drawing rights. This paper relies on the Almost Ideal Demand System combined with the Error Correction Model. The estimation result for monthly data over the period 2010(1)-2020(12) reveals that the own-price coefficients are negative and statistically significant which is consistent with the standard theory of demand. While the foreign currency-securities pairwise is substitutive, the foreign currency-gold and the foreign currency-special drawing rights pairwise are complementary or even independent. However, the wealth effect is inelastic except for securities reserves. These results imply that the central bank of Indonesia can re-balance its reserves. The securities holding which have the highest proportion of foreign reserve scan be switched to foreign currency, gold, and/or special drawing rights. The rebalancing measures would remain having an optimal level of foreign reserves holding in terms of its opportunity cost. Therefore, the monetary authority can conduct a further macroeconomic stabilisation without substantially losing the returns.

AbstractThe paper estimates the degree of integration of plantain prices in three selected markets to assess the efficiency of the plantain marketing system in mid Ghana. The selected markets are Techiman in Bono East Region, Kenyasi and Duayaw Nkwanta markets both in Ahafo Region of Ghana. The spatial market integration analysis was done using the error correction model on monthly wholesale real prices in Ghana cedis (GH¢) per 9–11 kg bunch of plantain from 2006 to 2015. The findings of the analysis indicate that the plantain markets are weakly integrated spatially with an overall degree of integration of 17 percent which suggests weak market efficiency. Therefore, strengthening the implementation of government policy on market information, especially in producing areas, will be useful in improving plantain market efficiency.

This study aims to examine the impact of income tax and VAT progressivity on Mexico's tax collection. In Mexico, tax collection has persistently remained at notably low levels, attributed in part to the perceived inequity within the tax system. Initially, we compute the progressivity of income tax and VAT to ascertain the average percentage increase in these taxes relative to a 100% rise in income. Results indicate income tax's progressive nature, contrasting with VAT's regressive pattern. Subsequently, employing a time-series model, we analyze the influence of income tax and VAT progressivity on tax collection. Our findings reveal a positive correlation between fiscal progressiveness and tax collection levels over both short and long terms. These findings offer practical implications, suggesting that leveraging the insights from this research could fortify tax policies, thereby enhancing tax revenues and contributing to improved income distribution. The analysis underscores the importance of considering the level of progressivity in income tax and VAT rates for enhancing tax collection in Mexico. By leveraging progressive taxation policies, policymakers can potentially boost tax revenues while promoting a more equitable distribution of income. Furthermore, an increase in tax collection can potentially support public programs and services benefiting society as a whole, thus enhancing overall welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The war that engulfed Syria in March 2011 is considered to be the most destructive event in its modern history. In addition to the massive human losses and millions displaced, physical capital stock and trade losses are comprehensive; by 2019, the United Nations estimated conflict-related damage to physical capital at US$442.2 billion (infrastructure destruction estimated at US$120 billion); and trade witnessed a collapse of about 100% in just a decade. The study focuses on the impact of the conflict on capital and trade and their specificity in a "multipolar" world to a small but "node" country like Syria. Using the error correction model, findings supported the view that (1) underdevelopment is linked to persistent and widespread international and regional intervention and economic sanctions; (2) political and geopolitical factors are highly associated with the state's capacity to raise investment and trade volume. Further, the study pointed out the importance of both public capital and trade in growth in the pre-conflict phase, but not the private capital. Recovery and reconstruction are possible only with relative peace drawn by political settlement between the dominant and contending parties in the geopolitical context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: This study investigates the impact of the global economic crisis of 2008 on organic food consumption in the Czech Republic. The structure of this study includes general consumption attitudes and consumption of individual organic food items (organic milk). The goal of this study is to quantify the influence of selected income macroeconomic indicators on organic food consumption (in general and individually). This study is focused on analyzing how this impact changed after 2008 in both prospectives. Methods: Methodologically, the error correction methodology (ECM) has been applied. However, it has been modified to incorporate breakpoint analysis to model the impact of the global economic crisis on organic food consumption. Thus, the total consumption of organic food and consumption of organic milk has been investigated. Results: Econometric verification of the estimated model proved that there was a statistically significant positive dependence of both indicators of organic food consumption on all the investigated indicators of income before 2008. Nonetheless, it was also proved that this dependence disappeared after the global economic recession in 2008. This retrospective analysis provides a valuable view of the mechanisms of organic food consumption changes caused by economic crises. Discussion: Prospective repetition of the research with the data from the current crisis could enrich the theory of organic food consumption. On the one hand, the results of hypotheses testing could be verified, and thus, the mechanisms of consumer reactions to the crisis could be identified, and the model of reaction to the next crisis cycle could be developed so as not to harm radically this sector. On the other hand, the results of hypothesis testing could be denied, and thus, the evolution in organic food perception and consumption could be stated. In this case, the need to revise the so-far formulated theoretical approaches would be proved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is examined the validity of the Phillips curve hypothesis using the Johansen cointegration and artificial intelligence methods for the period of 2010-2022 in Türkiye and it is also compared the forecasting performance of these methods using coefficient of determination values and error values. Results of the study an 1% increase in unemployment in the long run leads to a 0.854% decrease in consumer prices. This result supports the Phillips Curve hypothesis for the long run. On the other hand, the error correction model shows that Phillips curve hypothesis is not valid in the short run. Besides, R2 and other error metrics namely mean absolute error, root mean square error and the mean absolute percentage error values verify the better forecasting performance of the artificial neural network model than Johansen cointegration. In this context, the findings that can be obtained as a result of artificial intelligence modeling in the management of inflation and unemployment are considered to be important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches / İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article is a continuation and extension of a previous study which, to the best of the author's knowledge, was the first scientific attempt to identify determinants of the yield rate in the Warsaw office market. The paper is based on the Gordon growth model. In this approach, the yield rate of buildings offering office space to let is a function of the risk-free interest rate, the risk premium and a constant rate of growth of generated cash flows. In the article, five different elements of the risk premium were identified (term structure, alternative investments', market (country) specific, monetary and local office market capacity risk premium). The Error Correction Model was formulated based on quarterly time series data from 2007Q1 to 2021Q2. Most investors in the office market in Poland are financial institutions representing foreign capital. Therefore, the innovation of the paper and its main goal was to define which factors play key roles in determining yield rates in the Warsaw office space market -- national or regional/international. However, the selected group of Polish determinants were indicated as having prevailing an impact on the yield rate in the Warsaw office market than the corresponding determinants from the European Monetary Union and the USA. Based on the model, the lead-lag, as well as asymmetric relations, were depicted. Moreover, the use of dummy variables checks, the Chow test and the Markov switching model indicated the presence of structural breaks and the existence of the two regimes in the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Technology Economics is the property of Chinese Society of Technology Economics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Scientific Journal of Agricultural Sciences (SJAS) is the property of Beni Suef University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the changing world, oil continues to be important in energy production. Using monthly data from 1965 to 2022, the permanency of oil consumption fluctuations was investigated. Fourier-based Granger causality tests were used to examine cause-and-effect relationships between variables. Long-term relationships were estimated using Fourier-based Engle Granger cointegration tests. Unlike previous research, this study considers the long and short-term effects of countries that consume the most and least oil, as well as on a global scale, from different perspectives, examining oil price fluctuations together, and estimating these analyzes using the Fourier approach. Oil consumption fluctuations appear temporary in New Zealand and Luxembourg but permanent in all other countries. Oil consumption and prices share a causal relationship in the US, Japan, New Zealand, and Luxembourg, but no relationship elsewhere. A long-term relationship exists between oil consumption and prices in the US, India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, and Estonia. In other countries, no long-term relationship is found between these two variables. Error correction model estimation shows only the equation for Japan can be interpreted based on statistical significance. A one-unit deviation between oil consumption and prices can reach equilibrium in 20 months.

Along with the rapid growth of technology, payment instruments are also changing. Electronic money is slowly but surely replacing the role of paper money and coins. The emergence of electronic money can provide convenience for consumers, it can lead to an increase in the demand for goods and services that ultimately leads to demand-pull inflation.The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of electronic money transactions (both in natural and in value terms) on inflation growth. By using the Chow Breakpoint Test, Difference-in-Differences and Propensity Score Matching shows that the inflation trend has tended to decline since the Bank of Indonesia launched its national non-cash campaign.By using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method was revealed that an increase in the volume of electronic money transactions in the long-term may affect a decrease in inflation, but not in the short-term. The rate of interest of the Bank of Indonesia, the growth of lending and GDP led to the decline in inflation.It was concluded that the Bank of Indonesia could expand the use of electronic money to manipulate inflation levels in the long-term. The policy that can be implemented by Bank Indonesia is to distribute electronic money infrastructure services more evenly and increase the socialization of the use of electronic money, especially in remote areas.

Tourism demand modelling is one of the most studied areas in tourism economics, particularly focused on time series and econometric research. In this study, directly interpretable one-equation techniques are utilised, i.e. the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) and the derived error correction model (ECM). To complement the sharing of information and habits in tourism, we apply regressors derived from wages, general prices, and dummies. For the Czech and Austrian data, short- as well as long-run sets of outputs act differently, regarding the specific situation. Such information can straightforwardly be applied to the effective planning of various activities covering the public and private sectors. The results are completed by the standard cointegration testing procedure and residual analysis.

The article examines the relationships between the key components of the levels of socioeconomic development of Ukraine and the Republic of Azerbaijan. The aim of the study is to build a model of intercountry regression of per capita economic growth of both Ukraine and the Republic of Azerbaijan and to perform a comparative cross-country analysis of the key component of inclusive growth of the two countries under the strong influence of financial and socioeconomic crisis processes and the ongoing war. The study is aimed at an empirical study of the joint movement of both indicators, the identification of cause-and-effect relationships and cointegration dependence, the determination of a long-term integration relationship, allowing to take the necessary steps and measures for the positive mutual impact of trade and economic relations between the two countries on the national socioeconomic development. As the level of economic development, GDP per capita was used, taking into account purchasing power parity (PPP). The analysis of the dynamic relationship of indicators is carried out on the basis of data from January 1990 to December 2022. The study uses econometric methodology, including the extended Dickey–Fuller test for the presence of a single root, the Granger test for causality, the Engle–Johansen tests for cointegration, the vector model of error correction, and standard diagnostic tests. Tests for stationarity, causality, and cointegration were performed at the 10% significance level in the entire sample. The cointegration of the integrated 1st order of non-stationary initial series is revealed, where the preferred variant is the one with a trend, in which the marginal rate of restoration of equilibrium between GDP per capita at PPP of the two countries in the current year after the shock of the independent variable in the previous year is noted. The result, showing that GDP per capita at the PPP of Ukraine is in a slight positive dependence on GDP per capita at the PPP of Azerbaijan, is obtained. The empirical model explains 95% of the variation in the initial levels, and the equation of the vector error correction system 51% explains the differences. Recommendations are provided to ensure a long-term equilibrium of the joint movement of GDP at the PPP of both countries and to reduce the imbalance.

Introduction: The declining trend of non-renewable resources and the damage caused to the climate in this century has caused many concerns in terms of economic growth and progress. Strengthening economic growth is achieved in parallel with the increasing consumption of energy, and high energy consumption causes the release and increase in the concentration of all kinds of pollutants that are harmful to the environment, for this reason, the topics of economic growth and how to create a balance between growth and environmental quality are very important. One of the important tools to investigate this question is to pay attention to the environmental curve of Kuznets. This review is also important in the micro sector and the same macroeconomic results cannot be used for other sub-sectors. For this reason, in this study, this curve has been investigated and extracted for each of the economic sub-sectors.Materials and Methods: The present study aims to measure the effects of economic growth on the environment. The research variables include the country's GDP per capita as an indicator of economic growth and CO2 emission per capita as an indicator to show the level of environmental degradation. The data of the study has been collected at the level of three main sectors for the economy of Iran in the period of 2010-2016. This research will first create an econometric relationship (Co-Integration) between the mentioned variables in each of the three sections and then present the applied form of EKC.Results: The results of the study confirm the long-run Co-integration relationship between the research variables in the agricultural and industrial sectors, but the dependent form of the Kuznets curve is not confirmed in these sectors. The results show that there is no long-run Co-integration association in the service sector. Also, the error correction coefficients in each of the agricultural and industrial sectors state that 6 and 1 percent of each period's error is corrected in moving to the long-run Steady equilibrium, respectively.Discussion: Based on the findings of the research and relying on the logic of the Kuznets curve based on the positive correlation between economic growth variables (income) and pollutant emissions (energy consumption) at low income levels and negative correlation at high income levels, in each of the agricultural and industrial sectors, Economic growth is accompanied by the production of more pollutants and more destruction of the environment, and according to the results of the estimated elasticity’s, this trend in the agricultural sector has more acceleration than in the industrial sector. Therefore, surely, the plan of the Iranian governments should be in line with moving in the direction of development by observing the indicators of sustainable development and compatible with nature. In this regard, the results of the present study on the use and exploitation of clean technologies and new production technologies. It emphasizes recycling, renewable energy consumption, green transportation, green chemistry, gray water, etc.

This paper uses cointegration test and vector error correction model to study the impact of preschool education investment in Chongqing on GDP from two aspects: long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamics. The results show that although the two series are non-stationary from 1997 to 2019, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship, as well as a twoway causal relationship, between them. The long-term elasticity of Chongqing’s preschool education investment to the city’s GDP is 0.515, and the short-term elasticity is −0.035. The impulse response function explains the dynamic impact of a shock on Chongqing’s preschool education investment, as well as on the long-term and short-term relationship between the two.

With the popularization of big data technology, intelligent translation technology gradually rises and is applied in daily life, and this paper explores its utility in English writing. English writing can benefit from the auxiliary utility of Big Data intelligent translation The grammatical error correction model for intelligent English translation is constructed based on statistical classification and deep classification to optimize the English translation system. Through the performance testing of the intelligent translation system, the performance of the algorithm model of this paper is improved by 3.03, 2.64, and 8.55 compared with CYK, CYK-PU, and the shift-and-return algorithm, based on which the intelligent translation system is applied to English writing for the evaluation and analysis of the effect, and the reliability coefficients of the three scales are greater than 0.9 through the reliability and validity test and correlation analysis. Finally, a practical analysis of the auxiliary utility of intelligent translation in English writing is conducted. Finally, the auxiliary utility of intelligent translation in English writing is practically analyzed, and in the final achievement test, its various ability test scores and comprehensive achievement scores are all greater than 0.9. An intelligent translation system can help cultivate and improve English writing ability, which enhances the realistic reference significance of intelligent translation to aid English writing.

To realize the coordinated development of urbanization and ecological environment is a research hotspot in recent years. There is a very complicated relationship between them. Understanding their relationship is key to realize their coordinated development. In this paper, the long-term dynamic balance behavior between urbanization and ecological environment was studied by means of long-term equilibrium model and error correction model (ECM) based on the data of Shandong Province. In order to comprehensively reflect urbanization and ecological environment, this paper employed comprehensive evaluation model to construct comprehensive index of urbanization and ecological environment respectively, and used coupling coordination degree (CDE) and relative development degree model (RDE) to study the dynamic changes of the two. The results showed that: (1) The relationship between urbanization and ecological environment in Shandong Province is becoming more and more harmonious, and the coupling coordination type between them has gradually developed from extremely uncoupling (EUC) type to highly coupling (HC) type; (2) In the long run, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization and ecological environment in Shandong Province, and this equilibrium can be achieved through short-term dynamic adjustment. Therefore, a correct understanding of the short-term and long-term development laws between them can provide the corresponding theoretical basis for policy makers, and shorten the time for urbanization and ecological environment to reach an equilibrium state.

Abstract Empirical evidence is lacking on the nexus between coffee commodity output and commodity price volatility of developing countries especially during pandemic era. The most visible impact from an economic perspective is the change of price expectation on people's basic needs which are in line with the decline of economic growth in Indonesia. This has significant implications, particularly considering the important role of coffee in supporting the country's economy. The aim of this study is to examine the factors that influence the performance of coffee exports in Indonesia. The novelty of this study lay on the used national dataset within the range of 20 years (2000-2020) and including the pandemic effect on coffee sector performance. We examines the relationship between variables and coffee exports in Indonesia using unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and an Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that coffee exports, total area, coffee production, coffee price, gross national income, and coffee imports have significant influences on coffee exports. The variables of total area and coffee production impact coffee exports negatively in the long term, while coffee price, gross national income, and coffee imports have mixed effects. In the short term, total area and coffee production significantly affect coffee exports, while coffee prices and gross national income show no significant impact. Coffee imports have a significant negative influence on coffee exports in the short term. These findings contribute to understanding the dynamics of the coffee industry in Indonesia.

AbstractThis study aims to analyze the short and long-term transmission of rice prices at the farmer and consumer levels in West Java Province. This study uses monthly data on rice prices at the producer (farmer) and consumer levels from 2014–2020 in West Java Province, Indonesia. Meanwhile, the method used in this study is Error Correction Model regression. The results show the existence of market integration and asymmetry in the vertical transmission of rice prices between farmers and consumers, both in the short and long term. The causes of asymmetric price transmission are the presence of uncompetitive behavior or abuse of market power among intermediary traders, especially in concentrated markets, as well as adjustment costs and menu costs. Therefore, the government needs to monitor rice prices regularly to ensure consumer affordability and profitability for farmers. In addition, the government must also have accurate information to identify irregularities or abuse of market power. Furthermore, the government needs to create policies encouraging the involvement of regionally-owned enterprises, the central government, and the private sector in the rice trading sector.

AbstractFinancial stability is one of the main factors for a country’s economic sustainability nowadays. Financial instability has adverse effects on the economy which can lead to the financial crisis. This research tries to answer how monetary policy related to Indonesian financial stability in the short and long term, how specific the relations between its parts such as money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate to indonesian financial stability, and which one of these parts that have ways more effective to influence Indonesian financial stability. This research data use time series quarterly as quantitative data in Indonesia. By employing econometric models of error correction on quarter data that consist of the stationary stochastic process, long-run model and cointegration approach and error correction model, this model can indicate how quickly the effect of the money supply, interest rate or exchange rate is fully accepted by the financial stability in the short term. The finding of this study showed that the increase in interest rate began to be able to improve indonesian financial stability responsively in four times the period, namely an increase of one percent in interest rate could increase 0.4161 percent of financial stability in Indonesia.

AbstractThis study examines the relationship between agricultural GDP growth and government spending on input subsidies, agricultural research, price support programs and infrastructure development in Zambia, Malawi and South Africa. The study compiled government expenditures to different agricultural areas from the year 2000 to 2014 using a variety of data sources such as government budgets, public expenditure reviews, and working papers. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was used for unit root testing and the variables were found to be non-stationary at their levels but stationary after differencing. After testing for co-integration among the variables, the error correction model (VECM) was then employed using the Stata software to assess the impact of government spending components on agricultural GDP growth. The study found agricultural research expenditure to be more growth-enhancing only in Zambia and South Africa. A positive relationship was obtained between agricultural growth and infrastructure expenditure in Zambia and Malawi while spending on infrastructure in South Africa had a lower growth impact. Even though spending on input subsidies in Malawi positively influenced agricultural GDP, contradicting results were observed in Zambia and South Africa. The study recommends the governments in the three countries shift their spending priorities and disburse more funds to more growth-enhancing areas. This study differs from previous studies in that it disaggregates total government expenditure into four crucial components that dominate budgetary expenditures in Sub-Saharan countries and examines as well as compares their impact on agricultural growth.

AbstractMaintaining human capital at an optimal level is among the important mechanisms for ensuring steady economic growth. This study aims to examine the impact of human capital on Ethiopia’s economic growth. The study used the ARDL model applying annual data for the period 1980 to 2020. The ARDL-bound test was used to evaluate the presence of con-integration between human capital and independent variables. The study also applied the augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests to check the stationarity of the variables. The test result presented that almost all variables become stationary after the first difference. Accordingly, the result from the bound test indicated the existence of a long-run relationship between the dependent variable and independent variables entered into the model. The estimated error correction model with a − 0.9528 coefficient also confirmed the existence of co-integration with a high speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium. In the long-run real GDP, education expenditure, health expenditure, labor force, gross capital formation, total government expenditure, official development assistance, secondary school enrolment, consumer price index, drought, and policy change have astable long-run connection. The finding indicates an increasing ratio of health expenditure and secondary school enrollment should be designed, among others, to contain improved human capital in Ethiopia.

Bean futures are an essential part of the futures market, and changes in the trading environment will influence their cross-boundary relationship. This paper examines the linkage relationship between soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures in China and the United States under the influence of trade frictions based on the Error Correction model, which considers the long-term co-integration relationship and short-term price fluctuations. The findings indicate that before 2018, China and the United States had a two-way impact on soybean and soybean meal futures prices. While after 2018, China's soybean futures prices are unilaterally affected by the US market. Sino-US trade friction has increased the independence of China's soybean oil and soybean meal futures prices but left China's soybean futures prices in a passive position. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an important indicator that can reflect a country's macroeconomic situation and future trend, experts and scholars have long focused on analyses and predictions of gross domestic product (GDP). Combining principal component analysis (PCA), the mixed-frequency data sampling (MIDAS) model and the error correction model (ECM), this investigation constructs the principal-component-based ECM-MIDAS and co-integration MIDAS (CoMIDAS) models, respectively. After that, this investigation uses the monthly consumption, investment and trade data to build a mixed-frequency model to predict quarterly GDP. The empirical results can be summarized as follows: First, the predictive effectiveness of the mixed-frequency model is better than that of the same-frequency model. Second, the three variables have a strong correlation, and applying the principal component idea when modelling the same and mixed frequencies can lead to more favourable predictive effectiveness. Third, adding an error correction term to the principal-component-based mixed-frequency model has a significant coefficient and a higher predictive accuracy. Based on the above, it can be concluded that combining the MIDAS model with error correction and a principal component is effective; thus, this combination may be applied to support real-time and accurate macroeconomic prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the paper was to analyse the role of public agricultural spending as a panacea for agricultural subsector production in Cameroon. The data were taken from World Bank development database and processed using growth model, and error correction model. Despite the agricultural sector's significant contributions to the country's economy throughout the years, the country has made little headway in reducing it. Recent interest in the relationship between government spending and economic output has not focused on the central question of whether government spending, particularly agricultural spending increases agricultural subsector output or otherwise. With instantaneous and compound growth rates of 6.7 percent and 6.93 percent, 3.03 percent and 3.08 percent, 13.66 percent and 14.64 percent, respectively, the results demonstrated stagnation in agricultural and livestock subsector production and labor. In contrast, public agriculture spending increased at a faster rate, with instantaneous and compound growth rates of 6.09 percent and 6.27 percent, respectively. In the short run, agricultural land, labor, and public agricultural spending all have a substantial impact on animal productivity. Cutting public agricultural spending by 25% is the most cost-effective way to maintain crop and livestock production in the short term. Incentives such as tax reductions and infrastructure development should be established to attract more private investors, knowledge transfer, and significant capital inflows to ensure the agricultural sub-long-term sector's viability. In the short term, privatization of the government's agricultural development projects will be critical for efficient use of public resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The machined surface in the industrial cutting environment is often covered by some interference factors, such as chips or coolant residuals, which make the existing methods have large detection errors. Therefore, the interference factors in the cutting environment seriously affect the sustainability detection and evaluation of the processed surface quality. This paper discusses the relationship between interference factors and roughness to study the sustainability detection of roughness. Firstly, a multidimensional feature parameter matrix with strong correlation with surface roughness is extracted and constructed based on the gray level co-occurrence matrix. On this basis, the adverse effects of interference factors (chips) on image feature parameters are quantitatively analyzed. According to the relationship between chip area and error change rate of feature parameters, an error correction model is constructed to optimize the feature parameters that change due to interference factors. The error correction model greatly reduces the negative influence of chip interference. This is the core of this paper. Further, the BP neural network model and support vector machine (SVM) model are used to predict the surface roughness with the optimized multi-dimensional feature parameters matrix as input, respectively. The above process realizes the sustainable detection of machined surface roughness. At the same time, in order to facilitate industrial applications, this paper uses LabVIEW software and MATLAB software to package the above research into a software system. Finally, the practicability and effectiveness of the sustainable detection research are verified by practical application in the industrial scene. This study promotes the sustainable development between product safety and environmental impact in the industrial manufacturing process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For curbing the global climate crisis, China has set an ambitious target of peak carbon emissions by 2030. Beijing, the capital of China, has implemented a carbon reduction policy since 2012. Using the reduced and generalized forms of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), we deduce that both the cubic EKC and the genetic algorithm-based EKC have an N-shape. The first turning point of the three-order EKC occurs around 2011, demonstrating the effectiveness of the carbon reduction policy. However, the time series model predicts that Beijing will reach the second turning point around 2026, when the gross domestic product (GDP) is about CNY 5000 billion and carbon emissions will begin to increase again. Interpretable machine learning is proposed to explore the socio-economic drivers in carbon emissions, indicating that total energy consumption and GDP contribute the most. Therefore, we should accelerate the upgrading of energy consumption and adjust the industrial structure, thus facilitating Beijing to its peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The inverse finite element method (iFEM) is a novel method for reconstructing the full-field displacement of structures by discrete measurement strain. In practical engineering applications, the accuracy of iFEM is reduced due to the positional offset of strain sensors during installation and errors in structural installation. Therefore, a coarse and fine two-stage calibration (CFTSC) method is proposed to enhance the accuracy of the reconstruction of structures. Firstly, the coarse calibration is based on a single-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm (SOPSO) to optimize the displacement–strain transformation matrix related to the sensor position. Secondly, as selecting different training data can affect the training effect of self-constructed fuzzy networks (SCFN), this paper proposes to screen the appropriate training data based on residual analysis. Finally, the experiments of the wing-integrated antenna structure verify the efficiency of the method on the reconstruction accuracy of the structural body displacement field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the relationships between the key components of the levels of socioeconomic development of Ukraine and the Republic of Azerbaijan. The aim of the study is to build a model of intercountry regression of per capita economic growth of both Ukraine and the Republic of Azerbaijan and to perform a comparative cross-country analysis of the key component of inclusive growth of the two countries under the strong influence of financial and socioeconomic crisis processes and the ongoing war. The study is aimed at an empirical study of the joint movement of both indicators, the identification of cause-and-effect relationships and cointegration dependence, the determination of a long-term integration relationship, allowing to take the necessary steps and measures for the positive mutual impact of trade and economic relations between the two countries on the national socioeconomic development. As the level of economic development, GDP per capita was used, taking into account purchasing power parity (PPP). The analysis of the dynamic relationship of indicators is carried out on the basis of data from January 1990 to December 2022. The study uses econometric methodology, including the extended Dickey–Fuller test for the presence of a single root, the Granger test for causality, the Engle–Johansen tests for cointegration, the vector model of error correction, and standard diagnostic tests. Tests for stationarity, causality, and cointegration were performed at the 10% significance level in the entire sample. The cointegration of the integrated 1st order of non-stationary initial series is revealed, where the preferred variant is the one with a trend, in which the marginal rate of restoration of equilibrium between GDP per capita at PPP of the two countries in the current year after the shock of the independent variable in the previous year is noted. The result, showing that GDP per capita at the PPP of Ukraine is in a slight positive dependence on GDP per capita at the PPP of Azerbaijan, is obtained. The empirical model explains 95% of the variation in the initial levels, and the equation of the vector error correction system 51% explains the differences. Recommendations are provided to ensure a long-term equilibrium of the joint movement of GDP at the PPP of both countries and to reduce the imbalance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze price transmission dynamics in the under‐investigated feed supply chain, applying a special case of the Threshold Vector Error Correction model where the cointegrating relationship is interrupted. Weekly Italian dairy feed and corn prices are used, finding evidence of asymmetric price transmission when the feed industry's margins are squeezed and highly volatile. The proposed Interrupted Threshold Cointegration model represents a valid complement to existing threshold and regime‐switching techniques, allowing for the application of an agile nonstructural error correction model when standard cointegration tests fail to detect any long‐run relationship between price series. [EconLit Citations: Q11, Q13, C24]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]