Search

This paper studies intertemporal asset pricing in network economies when distress shocks can propagate through the network, similarly to epidemic outbreaks. Two classes of equilibria exist. In the first, idiosyncratic shocks are diversifiable and do not affect valuations; the consumption capital asset pricing model applies. In the second, idiosyncratic shocks generate nondiversifiable long-run cascades of shocks (financial pandemics) that introduce a new risk premium component unexplained by traditional systematic factors. We derive closed solutions for asset prices as a function of the network properties and discuss their properties. After a structural break (1984), we find evidence of a network risk premium that is statistically and economically significant. This paper was accepted by Agostino Capponi, finance. Funding: This work was supported by Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Università e della Ricerca [Grant PRIN-2017TA7TYC] and Baffi CAREFIN. C. Tebaldi is a fellow of Baffi CAREFIN and Innocenzo Gasaprini Institute for Economic Research Centers. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4687. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study a simple model based upon the Lucas framework where heterogeneous agents behave rationally in a fully intertemporal setting but do not know other investors' personal preferences, wealth or investment portfolios. As a consequence, agents initially do not know the equilibrium asset pricing function and must make guesses, which they update via adaptive learning with constant gain. We demonstrate that even in this simple environment the economy can, depending on parameters, exhibit either stable convergence to equilibrium, or chaotic dynamical behavior of asset prices and trading volume without converging to the rational expectations equilibrium of the Lucas model. This contradicts the assertion that the Lucas model is stable in the face of modest deviations from the strong assumptions required to compute the equilibrium. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 19: 38-55, 2014 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I study the equilibrium implications when some investors in the economy overweight a subset of stocks within their portfolio. I find that the excess returns for the overweighted stocks are lower, all else being equal. This has strong testable implications for stock returns. In the special case of logarithmic preferences, the riskfree rate increases and the market price of risk for the overweighted stock decreases, which create extra incentive for unconstrained agents to exit the stock market and hold bonds, hence clearing the market. The changes of stocks' volatilities are ambiguous. Finally, I provide an accurate quantification for agents' welfare. I also discuss the implications of my model in the context of defined contribution pension plans where workers hold large shares of their employer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the effect of investor-specific differential dividend taxation on the dynamics of equilibrium security prices and allocations. In order to deal with the inherent Pareto inefficiency of such an equilibrium as well as the preclusion of tax arbitrage, we construct a continuous-time equilibrium via a representative investor with state-dependent utility. Investors differ in their pricing of risk, inducing investor-specific consumption-based CAPMs, with differential taxation appearing as an additional factor. The interest rate, stock price, and consumption dynamics are also impacted. Under logarithmic preferences, risk is transferred from the higher-taxed to the lower-taxed investor, and the interest rate decreases to counteract extra precautionary savings against this suboptimally shared risk. Numerical analysis reveals further tax rate, time-to-horizon, and dividend risk effects on equilibrium quantities. For most wealth allocations, the stock return volatility is increased above the no-tax benchmark. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This short paper resolves an apparent contradiction between Feldman's (1989) and Riedel's (2000) equilibrium models of the term structure of interest rates under incomplete information. Feldman (1989) showed that in an incomplete information version of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985), where the stochastic productivity factors are unobservable, equilibrium term structures are "interior" and bounded. Interestingly, Riedel (2000) showed that an incomplete information version of Lucas (1978), with an unobservable constant growth rate, induces a "corner" unbounded equilibrium term structure: it decreases to negative infinity. This paper defines constant and stochastic asymptotic moments, clarifies the apparent conflict between Feldman's and Riedel's equilibria, and discusses implications. Because productivity and growth rates are not directly observable in the real world, the question we answer is of particular relevance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]