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The aim of this research was to explore at what age professional tennis players at different ranking levels (top 10, 11-20, 21–50, 51–100, 101–200, 201–300) started playing tennis and had achieved their career ranking milestones, and to explore the viability of using age and ranking to predict a player’s future success. 373 top 300 ranked professional tennis players from 2010 to 2018, including 193 females (M = 32.3, SD = 3.5) and 180 males (M = 34.0, SD = 3.1) were examined. Descriptive methods and univariate analyses were used to compare player developmental trajectories by player peak ranking levels. Discriminant analyses were applied to explore to what extent age and early ranking milestones can be used to predict a player’s future peak rankings. Results revealed that there were no significant differences regarding the age at which players started playing tennis by players’ career peak ranking levels. Results showed that 75% of the top 300 players started playing tennis between the ages of 3 to 7 years, whilst 21% started between 7 to 10 years, and 4% started later between 10 to 13 years. Results further showed that professional rankings between 14 and 18 years were not reliable in predicting a player’s future ranking. Closer analyses revealed that age and early rankings have a relatively high value in “predicting” the ranking of higher-ranked (e.g., top 10) and lower-ranked (e.g., top 201–300) players, but not middle-ranked players (i.e. top 11–200), with nearly 60% of them not correctly classified and the top 51–100 ranked players having the lowest predictability.

Learning from the career trajectories of the most successful elite players is central to informing effective strategies and long-term career planning to maximise player development and performance. This article examined the junior competition results and the performing age at major career milestones of top-level professional tennis players, utilising this information to forecast a player’s career peak ranking. Thirty years of longitudinal data which included 82 top 10 professional players between 2007 and 2017, were analysed. Gender and generational differences were compared. The results revealed that good performances at the highest junior level of competition was shown to be a critical precursor to eventual top-level professional success. It was revealed, however, that top 10 professional tennis players spent nearly 10 years from starting age to reaching an international junior level and another 10 years on average to achieve career peak ranking. Additionally, age at major career milestones was shown to be moderately correlated with a player’s career peak ranking, with 61% of the top one players correctly “predicted” to be top one players. The practical implications arising from these findings, specific to informing the career planning, prediction of professional success, monitoring and assessment of emerging tennis players, is discussed.

Little is known about the extent to which junior success can be used to predict senior success. Some studies have demonstrated a minor relationship between athletes’ junior success and senior success. However, these studies mainly focus on successes that athletes achieved at junior competitions. Successes that players achieved at international senior competitions but at a junior age have been relatively ignored. This study aims to explore the role that junior performances (age

Introduction Most countries attempt to develop systematic structures to identify sport talents and to promote the international success in certain sports. Despite the uncertainty of the relationship between junior and senior performances, national sport organizations still tend to use junior performance as a predictor for later success. The aim of this study is to explore to what extent junior success is a reliable criterion to predict senior success. Methods In this study we analyze athletes’ performances in three combat sports: wrestling (n=3452), taekwondo (n=2789), boxing (n=2568). Data contain the results from junior (World and European championships) and senior competitions (European and World championships, Olympic Games) from 2006 to 2016. First, descriptive analysis was conducted to provide the percentage of junior participants who finally won medals in senior competitions. Second, discriminant analysis and artificial neural network were conducted to predict the possibility of winning senior medals based on junior performances. Results Descriptive analysis revealed that 3.7% (boxing), 22.26% (taekwondo), and 21.8% (wrestling) of all the junior participants that had won senior medals. Moreover, the discriminant analysis showed that only 5% in boxing, 4% in taekwondo, and 27.4% in wrestling could be predicted to win senior medals based on their junior performances. However, artificial neural network (i.e. multilayer perception) showed that 0-5% in boxing, 0 - 24% in taekwondo, 39.6 - 48.1% in wrestling could be predicted to win senior medals based on junior performance. Conclusion Predicting senior medals only by using junior results is difficult. The discriminant analysis provides an accurate prediction for 90% of the athletes. It shows that it is easier to predict the number of athletes that will not win a medal than those who will win a medal. Secondly, there are differences among the three combat sports, in which wrestling shows greater chance to win senior medals if they won junior medals.

Most countries attempt to develop systematic structures to identify gifted talented athletes and to promote their development in certain sports. However, forecasting years in advance for the next generation of sport experts is challenging. The aim of this study is to facilitate talent identification and development program by identify a critical age at which athletes should start to perform in international competitions, and to what extent it is reliable to use junior success as a criterion to predict senior success. Methods The preliminary research consists of a European analysis of four sports: judo, tennis, gymnastics and athletics. This case study uses a top down approach to collect data in answering the question: how did senior elite athletes performed during youth tournaments? The sport specific principles were chosen in consultation with representatives of the Flemish Sport Federations. We focused first on correlations between performances on youth tournaments and professional level. Second, we shed light on how elite athletes performed in the selected youth tournaments (top down approach). Results The conducted correlations were all significant but ranged from very weak-to-weak correlations. As a result, junior athletes with better performances at the selected youth tournaments appear to have a slightly greater chance to be successful at the elite athlete level. Secondly, we conclude that there is an uncertainty about the relationship of performances on youth tournaments and success of elite athletes. The result also reveals that a third of all world-class athletes for athletics, judo as well as gymnastics did not perform or participate in the selected youth tournaments. Discussion These results indicate the general good to put into perspective the relative importance of performances at young ages. Moreover, a mixture of physical and mental skills into appropriate action is common for all sports and each sport is marked by a singularity of required sport-specific elements for successful performance (Baker& Horton, 2004). The ages at which transitions occur as well as the duration of the stages are sport-specific (Wylleman, Alfermann, & Lavallee, 2004). Therefore, it should be indicated that the youth performance sports index is only one out of many parameters evaluating the development of young athletes.