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The oceanographic conditions of the Southern California Bight (SCB) dictate the distribution and abundance of prey resources and therefore the presence of mobile predators, such as goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris). Goose-beaked whales are deep-diving odontocetes that spend a majority of their time foraging at depth. Due to their cryptic behavior, little is known about how they respond to seasonal and interannual changes in their environment. This study utilizes passive acoustic data recorded from two sites within the SCB to explore the oceanographic conditions that goose-beaked whales appear to favor. Utilizing optimum multiparameter analysis, modeled temperature and salinity data are used to identify and quantify these source waters: Pacific Subarctic Upper Water (PSUW), Pacific Equatorial Water (PEW), and Eastern North Pacific Central Water (ENPCW). The interannual and seasonal variability in goose-beaked whale presence was related to the variability in El Niño Southern Oscillation events and the fraction and vertical distribution of the three source waters. Goose-beaked whale acoustic presence was highest during the winter and spring and decreased during the late summer and early fall. These seasonal increases occurred at times of increased fractions of PEW in the California Undercurrent and decreased fractions of ENPCW in surface waters. Interannual increases in goose-beaked whale presence occurred during El Niño events. These results establish a baseline understanding of the oceanographic characteristics that correlate with goose-beaked whale presence in the SCB. Furthering our knowledge of this elusive species is key to understanding how anthropogenic activities impact goose-beaked whales.

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) in the western–central equatorial Pacific are critical in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. Understanding how they may change with global warming has important implications for future projections of El Niño. In this study, we investigate how the enhanced eastern equatorial Pacific warming pattern, emerging in future climate projections, can influence WWB characteristics in an atmospheric general circulation model, CAM6. Changes in three main factors affecting WWBs—El Niño-conditions mean westerly wind stress anomalies, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and tropical cyclones (TCs)—are analyzed. We find that during El Niño onset (December–April), the WWB wind stress intensity remains largely unchanged but WWBs shift westward by about 20° of longitude. In contrast, during El Niño development (May–November), the WWB intensity increases by 41% or 79% in two warming scenarios considered [shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP5-8.5) and SSP2-4.5, respectively], which is mainly caused by a higher frequency of TC occurrence in the central tropical Pacific within 15°N/S. Further, we find that westerly wind speed anomalies associated with El Niño and the MJO also increase during El Niño development. However, as trade winds weaken in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the mean strength of the resulting westerly wind stress anomalies does not change much, and no significant eastward shift of WWBs is observed. Thus, our atmospheric model simulations suggest a strong TC-driven increase in WWB wind stress anomalies during El Niño development and hence a more important role of TCs in WWB generation, which in a coupled system could lead to stronger ENSO events, enhanced TC–ENSO coupling, and even greater intensification of WWBs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Global or regional impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have predominantly been investigated through the Niño3.4 index, representing the sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the central Tropical Pacific. In this study, we comparatively evaluated the usefulness of Niño1+2, a relatively less utilised index that represents SST variability in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. In our analyses, we focused on ENSO impacts on Euro‐Mediterranean (EM) climate variability during boreal winter, using data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The correlation analysis involving Niño1+2 depicts more distinct temperature and precipitation patterns over the EM region. Amongst the SST‐based Niño indices, it has the highest correlation with the East Atlantic index (0.47, statistically significant at > 99% confidence level), a prominent regional teleconnection associated primarily with the strength of the East Atlantic ridge, which produces dipole‐type climate patterns between East Atlantic/Western Europe and Central/Eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, its lagged correlations with the following spring (0.39), summer (0.31), and autumn (0.36) are all statistically significant at ≥ 99% confidence levels. The composite analysis shows that different Niño regions have distinct effects on atmospheric circulation and climate in the EM region. The Niño1+2 index is particularly helpful in identifying the years when warm SST anomalies of El Niño extend to the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, which results in a reversal of temperatures across the EM region. Thus, this study suggests that Niño1+2 is a useful index for studying climate variability and predictability in the EM region, especially when used in conjunction with other Niño indices, as it captures some ENSO features that they may not encompass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a compilation of widely available climate analysis products, we show evidence for a significant variation in the spatial pattern of the large-scale vertical zonal atmospheric circulation patterns across the equatorial Indo-Australasian domain of the Eastern Hemisphere during the major 2023–24 El Niño event. The region of large-scale subsidence and its associated teleconnection patterns that are usually centered across Indonesia (the "Maritime Continent") were displaced to the west over the equatorial Indian Ocean. In the record of El Niño events with readily available online dynamical tropospheric fields (one source from 1947 and the other from 1979), this has only been seen two other times, during the strong 1997–98 El Niño and the weaker 1977–78 event. These three events may well be consistent with internal variability, but at present, the reason for such occurrences has not been established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability influences renewable electricity supply and demand and hence system reliability. Using the hidden states of the sea surface temperature of tropical Pacific Ocean that reflect El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics that is objectively identified by a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model, we provide a first example of the potential predictability of monthly wind and solar energy and heating and cooling energy demand for 1 to 6 months ahead for Texas, United States, a region that has a high penetration of renewable electricity and is susceptible to disruption by climate-driven supply-demand imbalances. We find a statistically significant potential for oversupply or undersupply of energy and anomalous heating/cooling demand depending on the ENSO state and the calendar month. Implications for financial securitization and the potential application of forecasts are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the impact of multiyear La Niña events on social wasps in Northeastern Amazonia, particularly in French Guiana. The excessive rainfall during La Niña years led to a significant decline in social wasp populations, with the most common species, Polybia bistriata, serving as a biological indicator of global change. The study highlights the correlation between heavy rainfall, La Niña events, and the decline of social wasps, emphasizing the potential critical situation for tropical social wasps in the face of increasing extreme weather events due to global warming. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the influence of Wagnerian themes on various composers and their works, focusing on the interactions between librettists and composers in creating operas. It explores how different composers, such as Henze and Adams, responded to Wagner's legacy, either embracing or rejecting it. The text delves into the complexities of post-Wagnerian opera, highlighting the diverse approaches taken by composers to engage with or move beyond Wagner's musical traditions. The article also touches on the cultural and historical contexts that shaped these composers' perspectives on Wagner and his impact on the evolution of opera. [Extracted from the article]

This research introduces a novel index for the South Atlantic High Pressure (SAHP) system to enhance understanding of regional climate variability and change. Subtropical highs significantly influence regional climates, yet comprehensive indices to measure their behaviours are lacking. Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2023, the proposed index estimates a weighted centroid of the area surrounding the maximum sea level pressure within a 3 hPa range. This method ensures robustness and flexibility in contiguous area estimation specific to subtropical high events. Results showed the index effectively reflects the position and intensity of the SAHP. The study reveals that latitudinal variability of the SAHP has a strong unimodal structure, whereas longitudinal variability exhibits a bimodal structure. Seasonal patterns of the index show noticeable changes, with winter (JJA) and spring (SON) months having relatively high index values compared to summer (DJF) and autumn (MAM) months, underscoring the intra‐annual variability of the SAHP index. During ENSO events, the mean centroid position of the SAHP shifts significantly, moving westwards and polewards during El Niño and showing greater stability during La Niña. The index, with minimal computation requirements and flexibility, can be applied across diverse datasets, aiding in the assessment of future subtropical high changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents new data derived from pollen, starch and radiocarbon samples that were collected from six Aboriginal earth (oven) mounds and middens on the Calperum and Pike floodplains, Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), South Australia (SA). Analyses of these samples were undertaken in order to enhance our understanding about the Holocene lifeways of Aboriginal people living in this region. The results from these analyses, combined with published data about the mounds' contents, relevant ethno-historical information and climate data, allow us to infer that Aboriginal people adopted, in this region, an innovative food production system about 3800 years ago. Further, we argue that the timing of the change suggests this was in response to adverse El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related weather patterns and consequently fluctuations in both terrestrial and aquatic food resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study mainly investigated the dynamic synoptic eddy (SE) feedback to interdecadal change in the impact of the winter Siberian high (SH) on subsequent ENSO development. It was found that a significant negative SH-ENSO correlation dominated since the mid-1980s (denoted as P2), which was extremely weak before the 1980s (denoted as P1). By applying a transformed vorticity budget analysis, focus was paid on the North Pacific where the air-sea responses linking the SH and ENSO development were closely associated with SE feedback. When the SH was anomalously enhanced, the Aleutian Low (AL) responded over the North Pacific. The dynamic SE feedback during P2 positively contributed to maintain the AL until early summer, induced the generation and intensification of an anomalous subtropical anticyclone, and thereby formed the negative North Pacific Oscillation phase. These air-sea responses favored the occurrence of Bjerknes feedback established around summer and finally grew into a La Niña event. During P1, the AL could hardly persist due to the rapid decay of dynamic SE feedback in spring, making the subsequent air-sea responses penniless. The distinct dynamic SE feedback was primarily because the intensity of spring SE activity was significantly weaker during P2 than during P1. By utilizing SE structure decomposition, it was found that the SE structure is more prone to being changed during P2, resulting in the generation of SE vorticity fluxes with a larger magnitude through multiplying basic SE velocity by anomalous SE vorticity and obtaining the SE forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies emerge as a key-driver in the biennial transitions of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and by extension of the whole ENSO-Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) system. In this context, we utilized a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and historical simulations to investigate whether the ENSO-ISM teleconnections as well as its biennial signature undergoes significant modulations in the future warming climate as mediated through the NTA SSTs. Our results reveal a pronounced increase in NTA variability under greenhouse warming, associated with an enhanced two-way teleconnection between NTA and ENSO, while the increase of ENSO variability is more modest. There is an exaggerated signature for the previous ENSO SSTs impacting boreal spring NTA SSTs, compared to a modest enhancement in NTA forcing on the following ENSO state. However, intriguingly, this later signature of NTA damping the ENSO variability seems to strengthen steadily from the historical simulation to the SSP5-8.5, implying an enhanced NTA forcing and biennial rhythm in future projections. In consonance with this emerging NTA signal, there is a significant increase in the variability of ISM rainfall by 21st century, together with a modest strengthening of the ENSO-ISM relationships in the future warming scenarios. We also noted consistent future strengthening of a biennial signature in the ENSO-ISM teleconnection. It is further inferred that the Pacific equatorial zonal SST gradient in conjunction with the NTA relative warming act as important sources for the future intensification of this biennial signal in ENSO variability and for the inter-model spread in the projections. In contrast to this, the future intensification in ISM rainfall variability and its biennial signature are not uniquely driven by these factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is crucial for understanding and predicting changes of monsoon rainfall, as water resources strongly affect the living of billions of populations in South Asia. Although many mechanisms have been proposed to understand variations of SASM-ENSO relationship in previous studies, the impact of internal variability and primary control factor are under debate. Here, the potential contribution of internal variability to SASM-ENSO relationship is analyzed by using large-ensemble historical simulations in which members only differ for initial conditions, from two coupled climate models FGOALS-g3 and CESM2. While both ensembles show reasonable skills in monsoon climatology and basic ENSO characteristics, there is considerable spread of SASM-ENSO correlation coefficient across ensemble members: −0.57 to -0.01 (−0.66 to −0.25, range between 5 and 95%) in FGOALS and −0.74 to −0.36 (−0.83 to −0.51) in CESM2 for precipitation (circulation). We find that ENSO intensity is the primary factor significantly influencing the diversity of the SASM-ENSO relationship by modulating the Walker circulation, which is associated with the spread in mean state of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature zonal gradient. The ENSO intensity can explain about 8% and 20% of the spread in the SASM-ENSO relationship in the FGOALS and CESM2 large ensembles, respectively. Taking the mean of 110 and 100 members as a referenced truth, approximately 75 and 60 members are necessary to accurately estimate the SASM-ENSO relationship for FGOALS and CESM2, respectively, affirming the importance of sufficiently large ensemble sizes to reasonably address the interannual SASM-ENSO relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a new measure that relates tropical cyclone (TC)-induced sea surface cooling with the strength of TCs, interannual variations in potential impacts of the upper ocean stratification on TC-induced sea surface cooling associated with the evolution of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated in the northwestern Pacific using an ocean reanalysis product, with a special focus on haline effects. It is found that the haline stratification could suppress the sea surface cooling by as much as 20% to the south of 20°N in the peak typhoon season (July-October), and this contribution is different between their developing years (September-October) and decaying years (July-August). More specifically, the haline effects may vary up to 25% (40%) during the decaying years of El Niño (La Niña). Due to anomalous haline effects, the region to the west of 160°E is susceptible to the sea surface cooling during the developing and decaying years of El Niño, while the cooling could be suppressed in this region during the decaying years of La Niña. Although the effects of haline stratification have been found less important than those of thermal stratification, potential impacts of the upper ocean salinity on TC-induced sea surface cooling associated with the ENSO have been quantitatively estimated for the first time. Since the main focus of this paper is to present the new measure and discuss potential impacts of the upper ocean salinity stratification, further verifications need to be conducted once more observational data is accumulated or through numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study focuses on El Niño impacts on springtime extreme precipitation in Southeastern China (SEC) by comparing observations with data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) historical runs. Observational and simulated results suggest that synoptic-scale temperature advection patterns over East Asia (EA) are closely associated with extreme precipitation in SEC, encompassing the Pearl River Basin (PRB), Yangtze River Basin (YRB), and Huaihe River Basin (HRB). Based on this, we introduce a temperature advection index (TAI) tailored to capture the cold-warm temperature advection dipole, which shows a significant positive correlation with SEC precipitation. Both observations and CMIP6 indicate that TAI-related circulations, characterized by upper-level synoptic-scale waves and a north–south oriented temperature gradient over EA, are conducive to extreme precipitation in northern PRB (NPRB)–YRB–HRB. However, the TAI-related synoptic-scale activities have a lesser impact on extreme precipitation in southern PRB (SPRB), as these disturbances mainly affect the mid-latitude weather. Further investigation reveals that during boreal spring following El Niño, 85% of extreme events in YRB–HRB are associated with positive TAI values, compared to 76% under climatological conditions. However, such a change in the association with TAI is not evident in CMIP6 simulations. From observations, atmospheric baroclinicity along the East Asian westerly jet is enhanced during El Niño, which promotes the development of TAI-related synoptic-scale disturbances. In contrast, CMIP6 models struggle to reproduce these observed baroclinicity signals during El Niño. This challenge arises from the background westerly jet bias and mean-state cold tongue bias in tropical Pacific temperature in models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The north and central coast of Chile is influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections. However, it also experiences episodic oceanic warmings off central Chile (30°S) lasting a few months that are not necessarily associated with ENSO. These episodes, called "Chile Niño" events, besides their ecological and socio-economical impacts, have also the potential to influence tropical Pacific variability. Here, we investigate how realistically the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP, Phases 5 and 6) simulate Chile Niño/Niña (CN) events, and quantify their changes under anthropogenic forcing. Despite limitations of the global models in simulating realistically coastal upwelling dynamics, we show that they simulate reasonably well the observed spatial pattern, amplitude and seasonal evolution of CN events. They however fail to properly represent the positive skewness from observations. The analysis of a sub-group of models (36) that simulate ENSO realistically reveals that CN events increase in amplitude and variance in the future climate with no changes in their frequency of occurence. This is interpreted as resulting from compensating effects amongst changes in remote drivers and local feedbacks. In particular, ENSO variance increases while that of the South Pacific Oscillation decreases. Conversely, we found that while the Wind-Evaporation-SST feedback tends to increase and the coupling between mixed-layer depth and SST weakens, favoring the development of CN events, the thermocline and wind-SST feedbacks decrease. However, only the change in the thermocline feedback is correlated to changes in CN variance amongst the models, suggesting a dominant role of local oceanic stratification changes in constraining the sensitivity of CN to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Dispersal and connectivity play important roles in shaping the population structure of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, across the western coast of South America. Its high potential dispersal capacity suggests the existence of metapopulations, where discrete habitat patches or groups of patches form subpopulations that interact at some level. However, the dispersal patterns of giant kelp in this region have not been quantified. This study assesses the dispersal and settlement of Macrocystis pyrifera in the southeast Pacific, specifically focusing on the impact of environmental variables and ocean currents within the Humboldt Current System. Location: Southeast Pacific (coast of Chile and Peru). Time Period: 1997–2008. Major Taxa Studied: Macrocystis pyrifera (giant kelp). Methods: Using a combination of hydrodynamic and individual‐based models, we analysed kelp fragment movements over 12 years, with a particular emphasis on the effects of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal changes. Results: Our results highlight a key settlement area in the southern Chilean region. We found that shorter travel distances of kelp fragments increased the likelihood of reaching a suitable habitat, underscoring the importance of local environmental conditions. We delineated intricate northward dispersal paths for kelp fragments, which appear to be governed by the interplay of wind and ocean current dynamics. Seasonal variations, notably in autumn and winter, favour the likelihood of reaching a settlement area due to favourable winds. Furthermore, ENSO events appear to influence dispersal distances, with fragments travelling the longest distances during El Niño phases. Main Conclusion: These findings are essential for informing kelp conservation strategies in the context of climate change, emphasizing the necessity of considering local and seasonal environmental factors alongside ENSO impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past studies have shown a significant observed poleward trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), especially in the northwest Pacific basin. Given the brevity of the historical record, it remains difficult to separate the forced trend from internal variability of the climate system. A recently developed tropical cyclone downscaling model is used to downscale the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), preindustrial control simulation. It is found that the observed trend in the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific is very unlikely to be caused by internal variability. The same downscaling model is then used to downscale CESM2 simulations under historical forcing. The resulting trend distribution shows a significant poleward migration of tropical cyclone LMI even after regressing out both natural variability and the part of the forced warming pattern that projects onto natural variability. The results indicate that the observed poleward migration of the latitude at which tropical cyclones reach their LMI in the northwest Pacific basin is likely to be, at least in part, forced. However, the magnitude of the projected poleward trend in climate models can be significantly modulated by the simulated spatial pattern of ocean warming. This highlights how discrepancies between models and observations, with regard to projected changes to the equatorial zonal sea surface temperature gradient under anthropogenic forcing, can lead to large uncertainties in projected changes to the LMI latitude of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement: Observations in the northwest Pacific basin show that the latitude at which tropical cyclones are at their most intense has been trending northward in the recent half century. These changes are important since tropical cyclones could bring hazardous weather to coastal areas that are poorly equipped to handle them. Here, we show that natural variations in Earth's climate are very unlikely to explain the observed poleward trend in the latitude that tropical cyclone reach their maximum intensity. We find that it is much more likely that the observed trend is forced by human-related emissions, though the spatial pattern of warming in response to greenhouse emissions can have significant impacts on the magnitude of the trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequent occurrence of El Niño events, in the context of climate change, brings heavy precipitation and extreme heat, severely disrupting agricultural production. Previous efforts have focused on monitoring crop planting areas and evaluating affected crops during disasters. Nevertheless, a comprehensive analysis, including crop planting area mapping, crop damage assessment, and mitigation effectiveness throughout the entire course of a disaster, has been seldom addressed. In this study, we built a comprehensive framework to rapidly investigate the areas of early rice, the extent of flooding impacts, and the post-flood mitigations of early rice during the El Niño flooding event in a typical rice production region – Jiangxi Province in 2023. Early rice planting areas were first mapped by integrating 15-day time series gap-filled Sentinel-1/2 datasets using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, based on a random forest classifier built with the 55 optimized training features. Then the flood-affected early rice map was produced by integrating the early rice planting areas and the Sentinel-1 images-based flood map. Finally, the post-flood newly planted rice fields were identified using the random forest algorithm and classification features from the Sentinel-1/2 images composited during four phenology phases of newly planted rice. The results showed the early rice planting area map, the flooding map, and the newly planted early rice map have overall accuracies of over 90 %. The early rice planting areas reached 120 × 104 ha, and an area of 3.60 × 104 ha (3 %) was flooded due to the heavy rain, and 3.43 × 104 ha flooded areas were newly planted, eventually mitigating the flooding impacts on the production of early rice. This study showcases the potential of all the available Sentinel-1/2 data, cloud computing, and well-established mapping algorithms for tracking rice areas, flooding impacts, and mitigations (i.e., after-flooding replanting) during extreme climate events. The established framework is expected to serve as an early warning system for agricultural adaptation to extreme climate events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice core oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from low-latitude regions preserve high-resolution climate records in the past, yet the interpretation of these ice core δ18O records is still facing difficulty due to the uncertainty of ice core dating. Here we present a new established δ18O time series from Qiangtang (QT) No. 1 ice core retrieved from the central Tibetan Plateau. Due to the vague seasonal signals in the QT ice core, we investigated the spectral properties of δ18O record with depth and discussed the implications of significant spectral power peaks in the QT ice core. We employed a variational mode decomposition (VMD) analysis for the upper part of the QT ice core to decompose the δ18O depth series in order to separate the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode, a signal strongly preserved in the QT ice core δ18O record. With this approach, we established a time series of 335 years (1677–2011 CE) for the upper 50 m of the QT ice core. Subsequently, we examined the frequency of the new established δ18O time series and detected strong signals of the bidecadal and multidecadal modes of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO consists of two modes with periods of approximately 25–35 years and 50–70 years, and we found that the 50–70 years periodicity has persisted since 1700 CE, succeeded by dominance of the 25–75 years periodicity after 1900 CE. Additionally, we analyzed the δ18O series of the QT ice core during the past century and determined that the increasing frequency of El Niño events is an important factor contributing to the increase in recent ice core δ18O. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the relationship between large-scale climatic drivers and streamflow of the Chalakudy River Basin, Kerala, was analysed using methods such as bivariate wavelet coherence (BWC), multiple wavelet coherence (MWC), and partial wavelet coherence (PWC) analysis. The four prominent global climate indices chosen are the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), along with other local climate drivers. The BWC analysis showed that streamflow and rainfall had a very strong in-phase relationship, whereas the maximum temperature and average temperature showed an anti-phase relationship. In the case of global climate drivers, ENSO has a significant impact on the streamflow of the Chalakudy River Basin. The average wavelet coherence (AWC), which quantifies the teleconnections, confirms the observation with a high coherency of 0.75 between streamflow and rainfall and 0.51 for streamflow and ENSO. Streamflow prediction models were developed using random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques by considering the influence of significant global and local climatic drivers. It was observed that the RF model performed slightly better than the ANN model, with R = 0.875, NSE = 0.766, RMSE = 23.468, and RSR = 0.524. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is often accompanied by multiple extreme hazards—thus, its accurate prediction is crucial to the prevention of such crises. Recently, machine learning algorithms have exhibited excellent ENSO prediction performance. However, most models are committed to directly capture the relationship between the Nino3.4 index (an important indicator of ENSO phenomenon monitoring) and historical ocean data, which reduces the interpretability of the algorithms. In this study, we propose a new method for ENSO prediction with better interpretability. In particular, we design a spatiotemporal data generative model (SADG model) based on the separated attention mechanism and apply it to ENSO prediction, completing the generation of sea surface temperature anomaly data for the next 20 months and achieving proficient prediction of the Nino3.4 index with a prediction period of one and a half years. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model exhibits high algorithm efficiency without any prediction preference, and outperforms all baseline models in ENSO prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study employed the Japanese Ocean flux data sets with use of remote sensing observations version 2 (JOFURO2) to examine global-scale seasonal variations and trends in Latent heat flux (LHF) over a 19-year period. Furthermore, additional analysis has been conducted to determine the response of LHF to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. To assess variability, trends, and strength of relationships with ENSO, statistical score analysis was employed using seasonal means, standard deviations, linear trends, and linear correlations, respectively. In this study, the seasons were classified as December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM), June-July-August (JJA), and September-October-November (SON). The result of the study revealed that the highest LHF values tracked the annual movement of the sun. In the Northern Hemisphere, the highest spatial trends occurred during DJF, while JJA exhibited the peak values in the Southern Hemisphere. This spatial pattern aligns with the seasonal means of LHF, where the highest and lowest standard deviations and trends coincide with the corresponding regions of high and low LHF. This finding suggests that the standard deviation patterns support the observed variability in seasonal LHF means. The strongest spatial correlations between LHF and ENSO were observed over the Indian Ocean during the SON season. In contrast, the correlations between LHF and ENSO in the Atlantic Ocean exhibited spatial heterogeneity, with a significant correlation only during the DJF season. In general, the seasonal spatio-temporal patterns suggest a dynamic link between LHF and ENSO, potentially linked to large-scale monsoon system changes, the specific locations and distributions of positive/negative trends and standard deviations in LHF reveal a spatial response that appears independent of the ENSO phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal wetlands surrounding urban environments provide many important ecosystem services including protection from coastal erosion, soil carbon sequestration and habitat for marine and terrestrial fauna. Their persistence with sea-level rise depends upon their capacity to increase their soil surface elevation at a rate comparable to the rate of sea-level rise. Both sediment and organic matter from plant growth contribute to gains in soil surface elevation, but the importance of these components varies among sites and with variation in climate over long time scales, for which monitoring is seldom available. Here, we analysed variation in surface elevation, surface accretion and mangrove tree growth over 15 years in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, a period that spans variation in the El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) cycle, which strongly influences rainfall and sea level in the region. Piecewise structural equation models were used to assess the effects of biotic (tree growth, plant cover and bioturbation by invertebrates) and environmental factors on annual surface elevation increments throughout this period. Our model for mangroves identified that surface accretion and tree growth were both positively influenced by rainfall, but surface elevation was not, and thus, higher levels of compaction of the soil profile in high rainfall/high sea level years were inferred. In contrast, our saltmarsh model found that rainfall positively influenced surface accretion and elevation gains. Declines in surface elevation in the mangroves were influenced by the species composition of the mangrove, with higher levels of elevation loss occurring in mangrove forests dominated by Avicennia marina compared to those with a higher proportion of Rhizophora stylosa. Decadal-scale variation in ENSO affected mangrove tree growth, but surface elevation trends were more strongly influenced by variation in environmental conditions than by tree growth, although effects of biotic factors (mangrove species composition and bioturbation) on surface elevation trends were observed. Further research into tipping points with extreme ENSO events (either La Niña with high rainfall and high sea level or El Niño with low rainfall and low sea levels) will help clarify the future of mangrove and saltmarsh distribution within Moreton Bay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractSevere thunderstorms cause substantial economic and human losses in the United States. Simultaneous high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are favorable to severe weather, and both they and the composite variable PROD=CAPE×SRH can be used as indicators of severe thunderstorm activity. Their extremal spatial dependence exhibits temporal non-stationarity due to seasonality and large-scale atmospheric signals such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to investigate this, we introduce a space-time model based on a max-stable, Brown–Resnick, field whose range depends on ENSO and on time through a tensor product spline. We also propose a max-stability test based on empirical likelihood and the bootstrap. The marginal and dependence parameters must be estimated separately owing to the complexity of the model, and we develop a bootstrap-based model selection criterion that accounts for the marginal uncertainty when choosing the dependence model. In the case study, the out-sample performance of our model is good. We find that extremes of PROD, CAPE and SRH are generally more localized in summer and, in some regions, less localized during El Niño and La Niña events, and give meteorological interpretations of these phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) induces more severe climate impacts than a single pIOD because of multi‐year accumulation of precipitation anomalies. Using CMIP6 outputs and reanalysis data, we show that the observed increasing trend of consecutive pIOD frequency will continue in future. The simulated frequency of consecutive pIOD increases by 131.3% over 1950–2100. More than 65% pIOD will manifest as consecutive pIOD events in the second half of this century. The increase in consecutive pIOD is dominated by the rise in mixed consecutive pIOD that contains both ENSO‐pIOD and independent pIOD. Mixed consecutive pIOD that start with ENSO‐pIOD increases fastest among all types of consecutive pIOD events. The increase is contributed by three factors: higher ENSO‐pIOD frequency, weaker biennial component of ENSO forcing, and more active pIOD triggers that are independent from ENSO. Climate extremes associated with consecutive pIOD are therefore expected to occur more frequently under global warming. Plain Language Summary: A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) could induce droughts and floods in the eastern and western Indian Ocean countries, respectively. In consecutive pIOD events, the multi‐year accumulation of precipitation anomalies leads to more severe and prolonged climate anomalies than that in a single pIOD event. Observations show that consecutive pIOD events have become more frequent under global warming. They occurred only twice in the last 50 years of last century and have already occurred three times in the first 20 years of this century. Model outputs suggest that the observed increasing trend of consecutive pIOD frequency will continue in future. The overall frequency of consecutive pIOD will increase by 131.3% over 1950–2100. More than 65% of pIOD will manifest as consecutive pIOD events in the second half of this century. Mixed consecutive pIOD that start with ENSO‐pIOD increases fastest among all types of consecutive pIOD events. The increase in consecutive pIOD is contributed by higher ENSO‐pIOD frequency, weaker biennial component of ENSO forcing, and more active IOD triggers other than ENSO. Climate extremes associated with consecutive pIOD events are likely to occur more often in the Indian Ocean surrounding countries due to more frequent consecutive pIOD events. Key Points: The observed increasing trend of consecutive pIOD frequency will continue in futureMixed consecutive pIOD that start with ENSO‐pIOD increases fastest among all types of consecutive pIOD eventsAn increase in consecutive pIOD is caused by a higher frequency of pIOD, a weaker biennial component of ENSO, and more active IOD triggers [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have caused devasting ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. Understanding the connection of regional events to large‐scale climatic drivers is key for enhancing predictability and mitigating MHW impacts. Despite the reported connection between MHWs globally and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), establishing statistically significant links between different types of ENSO events and MHWs remains challenging due to the limited duration of observational data. Here, we use 10,000 years of simulations from a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) to address this issue. Our findings reveal distinct connections between MHWs and ENSO, with diverging influences from different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events. In addition, under long‐lasting El Niño conditions, the likelihood of MHWs increases by up to 12‐fold in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This study highlights the global connections between ENSO diversity and variations in MHW events. Plain Language Summary: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of prolonged, extremely warm ocean temperatures that have caused widespread ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. The predictability of these events can be improved if we can find connections between regional events and larger climatic drivers, such as El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the positive phase of ENSO, El Niño, and its negative phase, La Niña, have been linked to MHWs in various parts of the world. However, not all El Niño and La Niña events are the same, leading to uncertainty in the relationship between ENSO and MHWs. Due to the limited duration of the observational record, a major issue arises with the lack of examples of different types of El Niño and La Niña events in observations. To overcome this challenge, we utilized 10,000 years of simulated data from a near‐global linear inverse model to generate many more samples of possible global ocean temperature configurations. We find strong differences between regional MHWs and different types of El Niño and La Niña events. In some regions, the probability of MHWs is 12 times more likely under long‐lasting El Niño events. Key Points: Robust links between global marine heatwaves and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity are established using 10,000 years of samples from a linear inverse modelMarine heatwave (MHW) intensity and frequency in the Northeast Pacific increase significantly during Central Pacific El Niño eventsMHW intensity and frequency are significantly enhanced in Western Australia during Central Pacific La Niña events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of Arctic sea ice loss on summertime weather in the Northern Hemisphere have garnered considerable attention. Despite the extensive focus on this relationship, the influence of tropical systems on Arctic regions has been relatively underexplored, with only a limited number of existing studies concentrating exclusively on either dynamic or thermodynamic effects. This study aims to address this gap by examining a barotropic anomalous circulation over the Arctic region associated with Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall. The observed anomalous circulation exhibits a distinct zonally dipole pattern, characterized by anomalous high pressure over Northern Canada and Asia, coupled with anomalous low pressure located east of Greenland. Verification through model experiments demonstrates that the diabatic heating of ISM rainfall contribute to the formation of the observed ISM-related circulation. The modulation of surface clear sky downwelling longwave radiation ( DLR clear sky ) by the circulation anomalies over the Arctic modified surface thermal conditions, thereby influencing subsequent variations in sea ice thickness and concentration. Under anomalous high pressure, DLR clear sky increases, leading to a decline in sea ice thickness, and vice versa. Additionally, from a dynamic standpoint, low-level wind-driven sea ice drift helps shape the spatial distribution and extent of sea ice cover. Besides, the impacts of ISM on Arctic sea ice are largely independent of contemporary ENSO. These findings present fresh perspectives on the role of extrapolar phenomena, such as the ISM, in driving variability in Arctic sea ice during the summer months. This enhanced comprehension holds promise for enhancing predictions of changes in summertime Arctic sea ice extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reconstruction often serves as a major proxy of high-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) variability beyond the instrumental era. However, coral reconstructions are sparse and are usually studied for interannual variability, with few studies on the monthly features. In this study, we reconstruct the monthly SST spatial field by applying the paleoclimate data assimilation method to the coral records of the latest CoralHydro2k data set for the instrument period of 1880–2000. A comparison with observed SST variability shows that our assimilated tropical SST variability performs reasonably well for the seasonal cycle and monthly ENSO characteristics, notably the phase-locking and onset timing, and more realistic spatial fields relative to the model simulations. This study suggests the feasibility of applying paleoclimate data assimilation to reconstruct the monthly SST in the historical period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several recent high intensity ENSO events have caused strong negative impacts on the adult phases of foundational species in coral reef ecosystems, but comparatively little is known about how climatic variables related to recent ENSOs are impacting the supply of larvae to benthic populations. In marine fishes and invertebrates, reproductive adults and planktonic larvae are generally more sensitive to environmental variability than older, non-reproductive adults. Further, the transport of larvae in ocean currents may also be strongly ENSO dependent. The interactions between the dynamics of larval survivorship and larval transport could lead to population bottlenecks as stronger ENSO events become more common. We tested the predictions of this hypothesis around the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) by constructing a correlation matrix of physical and biological time series variables that spanned 11 years (2007–2017) and multiple ENSO events. Our correlation matrix included four types of variables: i. published ENSO indices, ii. satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll variables, iii. abundance and diversity of larval fishes sampled during the late winter spawning season off Oahu, and iv. abundance and diversity of coral reef fish recruits sampled on the western shore of the Big Island of Hawaii. We found that the abundance and diversity of larval fishes was negatively correlated with the Multivariate El Niño Index (MEI), and that larval variables were positively correlated with measures of fall recruitment (September & November), but not correlated with spring-summer recruitment (May & July). In the MHI, SST variables were not correlated with the MEI, but two successive El Niño events of 2014–15 and 2015–2016 were characterized by SST maxima approaching 30°C. Two large pulses of benthic recruitment occurred in the 2009 and 2014 recruitment seasons, with > 8000 recruits observed by divers over the summer and fall months. Both events were characterized by either neutral or negative MEI indices measured during the preceding winter months. These patterns suggest that La Niña and the neutral phases of the ENSO cycle are generally favorable for adult reproduction and larval development in the spring and summer, while El Niño phases may limit recruitment in the late summer and fall. We hypothesize that episodic recruitment during non-El Niño phases is related to favorable survivorship and transport dynamics that are associated with the formation of pairs of anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies on the leeward sides (western shores) of the Main Hawaiian Islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT In recent decades, the growth, physiology and distribution of many elasmobranch species have been altered as a result of environmental changes that affect prey abundance, availability and composition. Consequently, variations in nutrient input during climate events could manifest in the growth of their hard tissues. This study focuses on assessing the impact of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) on the growth of Shorttail Yellownose skate (Zearaja brevicaudata) in Patagonia, Argentina. To achieve this, vertebrae from 115 Z. brevicaudata specimens were analysed, and growth rings were dated and measured. By using cubic splines with varying flexibility, we constructed three standard chronologies. Generalized additive models (GAMs), the chronology with the best the R‐bar (r¯$$ \overline{r} $$) and expressed population signal (EPS) were employed and values obtained from them linked to annual time series data of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and SAM, considering lags in the biological response. Surprisingly, no significant association was found with the MEI time series. However, a noteworthy positive association emerged between the chronology and the SAM time series lagged by 1 year, suggesting that SAM‐related climatic conditions could delay their transfer into the Patagonian marine ecosystem, subsequently impacting the growth of this ectothermic predator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Meteorological droughts in Malaysia have significantly impacted critical sectors such as agriculture, water resources, health, the environment, tourism and various socio‐economic sectors, affecting the population's livelihood and well‐being. This study analyses drought characteristics over a 39‐year period, from 1982 to 2021, using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from 5‐km resolution Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). The droughts were assessed on 3‐, 6‐, 9‐ and 12‐month timescales to investigate spatio‐temporal variations in characteristics such as frequency, duration, peak, severity and intensity. The study also provides an in‐depth analysis of large‐scale drought modulation, particularly associated with the El Niño phenomenon and its teleconnection in the Maritime Continent. Depending on the location and timescale, the number of meteorological drought occurrences varied from 10 to 22 for the 3‐month timescale and 4 to 14 for the 12‐month timescale. Generally, as the timescale of a drought increases, the peak intensity decreases, while the duration and severity increase. Additionally, drought intensity decreases over longer timescales. These characteristics show significant spatial variations. Results indicate that meteorological droughts in Malaysia were almost entirely modulated by the El Niño phenomenon through its induced teleconnection over the Maritime Continent. Drought characteristics exhibit a strong seasonality linked to changes in the Walker circulation and the strengthening and weakening of anticyclonic circulations associated with Rossby waves induced by heating in the Pacific Ocean. Very strong El Niño events had the most significant influence on the droughts. The positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) strengthened the effects of El Niño but it itself had no significant influence on the droughts. In most regions, there were no significant trends in the characteristics of meteorological droughts. However, in northeast Peninsular Malaysia and some scattered areas along the west coast of the peninsula, significant trends are observed in peak, duration and severity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This work studies the simultaneous and sequential occurrence of hot and dry months in the summer season in Argentina, north of 40°S, based on three different databases: meteorological stations, a gridded observational dataset and a reanalysis product. The influence of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the occurrence of these compound events is specially analysed using a logistic regression model. Monthly maximum temperature and precipitation data are used for the period 1979–2022 in four sub‐regions of Argentina: Northwestern Argentina (NOA), Northeastern Argentina (NEA), Cuyo (central‐western Argentina) and the Pampas (central‐eastern Argentina). Simultaneous hot and dry months and hot months preceded by dry months are the most frequent compound events. The highest frequencies are found in the centre part of the study region and NEA for simultaneous compound events, and in NOA and the Pampas region for sequential ones. In general terms, all datasets show a good representation of the spatio‐temporal variability of hot and dry months. The insights of the influence of ENSO on compound events revealed that La Niña enhances the occurrences of hot and dry months throughout the study region, with the exception of NOA, where El Niño conditions promote the occurrence of these events. Based on logistic regression models, we successfully quantify the relationship between ENSO and hot and dry months and demonstrate that ENSO plays a significant role as a driver of compound hot and dry events in the central region, Cuyo, NEA and a portion of the Pampas. This research contributes to the understanding of compound events in Argentina and how they are influenced by major drivers of climate variability providing useful information for the development of a predictive system for such events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

2023 was the warmest year on record with a global mean temperature of 1.45 ± 0.12 degC above pre‐industrial levels, surpassing the previous record (from 2016) by 0.17 degC. The onset of El Niño in early July was accompanied by record‐breaking land and sea‐surface temperatures, with June to September all exceeding previous monthly temperature records, and July and August being the hottest months on record. Sea‐surface temperatures have attained record highs for all months since March 2023 and Antarctic sea ice reached record lows throughout the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Impacts of El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the quasi‐biweekly oscillation over the western North Pacific (WNP‐QBWO) in boreal winter are investigated in the study. The WNP‐QBWO in boreal winter primarily propagates westward from the tropical western Pacific to WNP. During the La Niña winter, the QBWO over the WNP has stronger intensity and propagates westward at a faster speed, while it is weaker and propagates more slowly during the El Niño winter. The possible mechanisms may involve the ENSO‐related background moisture and zonal wind vertical shear changes that can significantly modulate the WNP‐QBWO's behaviours in boreal winter. A 2.5‐layer atmospheric model is applied in the study and confirms the results. It is further revealed that the moisture change is dominant in modulating the WNP‐QBWO's intensity, while both the moisture and vertical shear changes may together contribute to the zonally propagating speed of the WNP‐QBWO in boreal winter. These results can deepen our understanding of dynamic processes associated with the WNP‐QBWO in boreal winter and are conducive to the predictability study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall interception loss (Ei) is a difficult to study and poorly understood flux compared to transpiration and soil evaporation. The influence of climate and vegetation on Ei is not well known at continental‐to‐global and annual‐to‐decadal scales. Here, we use a long‐term multi‐product approach to examine the global trends in Ei, and further utilize a recently developed and validated dataset to isolate the relative contributions of precipitation, vegetation and evaporative demand. At decadal timescales, increasing Ei is largely driven by global vegetation greening through an increase in the intercepting surface and storage capacity, while its inter‐annual variations are mainly controlled by changes in precipitation, largely related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Increasing evaporative demand, driven by atmospheric warming, also positively contributes to the global rise in Ei. This study provides new perspectives for further understanding the impacts of climate change on the terrestrial hydrological cycle. Plain Language Summary: Rainfall interception loss is the volume of rain that gets caught by plants before reaching the ground and evaporated back into the atmosphere. It is among the least understood components of the global water cycle. In our research, we used satellite data over a long time (from 1981 to 2020) and a recently developed global model to study how rainfall interception has changed in time and space. We discovered that globally, more rain is being caught by vegetation over the years. This increase happens because our planet is greening, increasing the surface over which rain can be intercepted. On the other hand, changes in how much it rains dominate the year‐to‐year differences in interception loss. At the same time, as the atmosphere gets warmer, water can evaporate faster from vegetation, which adds to the growing trend in interception loss. These results match with the expectation of an intensified water cycle over the continents. Key Points: Rainfall interception loss exhibits increasing trends globallyIts multi‐decadal trends are driven by vegetation greening and warming, whereas interannual variations are controlled by precipitationENSO regulates rainfall interception loss largely through its influence on precipitation dynamics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unlike prior researches focusing on interannual or interdecadal changes of the Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH), this paper emphasizes the interdecadal changes in the relationship between May‐June and July‐August NWPSH. The correlation coefficients between them are 0.66 (passing the 99.9% confidence level) and 0.12 during 1979–2002 and 2003–2023. Therefore, the May‐June NWPSH has a strong connection with July‐August East Asian precipitation during 1979–2002, but not during 2003–2023. The interdecadal variations in the relationship of NWPSH are due to interdecadal changes of ENSO. During 1979–2002, the eastern‐type ENSO in prior winter, having longer durations, can influence May‐June and July‐August NWPSH and the North Indian Ocean. However, the central‐type ENSO in prior winter only persists it's influence until May‐June, and changes into a Pacific Dipole pattern in July‐August during 2003–2023. Despite the North Indian Ocean continually warms during 2003–2023, the tropical Pacific Dipole offsets its impacts on the NWPSH. Plain Language Summary: The Northwest Pacific Subtropical High (NWPSH) has always been valued by meteorologists due to its important role in the East Asian climate. This paper found that the relationship between the NWPSH in May‐June and July‐August has weakened significantly since 2002. The eastern‐type ENSO, characterized by longer durations, can influence the NWPSH and the North Indian Ocean in May‐June and July‐August before 2002. However, from 2003 to 2023, the influence of the central‐type ENSO only persists until May‐June, transitioning to a Pacific Dipole pattern in July‐August. Therefore, both May‐June and July‐August NWPSH are affected by the North Indian Ocean before 2002. However, the NWPSH in May‐June is affected by the North Indian Ocean and prior winter ENSO after 2002, while the July‐August NWPSH is impacted by the tropical Pacific Dipole. And the tropical Pacific Dipole also offsets the influence of the North Indian Ocean on the NWPSH. This leads to a weakening of the relationship between the NWPSH in May‐June and July‐August. Key Points: The relationship between the Northwest Pacific subtropical high (NWPSH) in May‐June and July‐August has significantly weakened after 2002The reason for weakening relationship of NWPSH is that the persistent eastern ENSO has become a short‐period central ENSO after 2002Central ENSO will become Pacific Dipole mode in summer, which will weaken the influence of North Indian Ocean on NWPSH [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations revealed notable discrepancies in the 2023/24 El Niño compared to earlier events, despite registering moderate Niño3.4 index magnitudes. Essential indicators such as the westerly wind burst, thermocline zonal tilting, and eastward propagation of oceanic Kelvin waves were conspicuously weak, indicating a weak air‐sea coupled in contrast to past occurrences, the 2023/24 El Niño coincided with unusually high North Atlantic Tripole and extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The elevated North Atlantic Tripole SST triggered a strong negative Pacific meridional mode and easterly anomalies in the equatorial western‐central Pacific. At the same time, the extratropical North Pacific SST induced a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation‐like pattern. These anomalies potentially dampened SST‐wind coupling during the developmental stages of El Niño. The negative Pacific meridional mode distinguished the 2023/24 El Niño from previous events and substantially altered its local and remote influences. Plain Language Summary: The 2023/24 El Niño, while achieving a magnitude comparable to previous events, exhibited notably weaker westerly wind bursts, thermocline zonal tilting, and oceanic Kelvin wave eastward propagation typically associated with El Niño occurrences. This study delves into these distinctions and examines the underlying reasons for this deviation. In contrast to preceding events, the 2023/24 El Niño coincided with unusually high North Atlantic Tripole and Extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). These elevated SSTs were partially influenced by the preceding triple‐dip La Niña in 2020–2022. Our analysis suggests that these heightened SSTs significantly contributed to the observed disparities in 2023/24 El Niño. Key Points: The Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) in 2023/24 indicated a moderate El Niño. However, the westerly anomaly in the western Pacific was not evidentThe weak westerly in response to the Niño3.4 SST indicated a weak air‐sea coupling for the 2023/24 El NiñoThe North Atlantic Tripole and extratropical North Pacific extreme SSTs play a crucial role in modulating 2023/24 El Niño [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present new climate field reconstructions (CFR) of tropical Pacific ENSO sea surface temperatures (HadISST) for the boreal winter season using a circum‐Pacific tree‐ring network from known El Niño rainfall impact regions. We use two different CFR methods: Point‐by‐Point Regression (PPR) and reduced‐space Orthogonal Spatial Regression (OSR). Both methods produce reconstructions with high validation skill, but OSR is preferred because it has less spatial noise and is more efficient. Only the leading EOF of the SST field (EOF1) can be skillfully reconstructed by either method; EOF2 does not validate. The success of EOF1 reflects its importance for ENSO rainfall impacts over land; the failure with EOF2 is from the lack of these impacts. EOF1 allows for the reconstruction of many ENSO indices, including the ENSO Longitudinal Index (ELI). We also find evidence in our reconstructions for a recent increase in ENSO activity. Plain Language Summary: Earth's climate is strongly affected by how warm the tropical Pacific Ocean "El Niño" region is. This is especially true for the delivery of rainfall over many parts of the globe. Tree growth can thus be strongly affected by El Niño impacts on rainfall. We use this relationship to reconstruct tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño over most of the past millennium from a network of annual tree‐ring chronologies located in regions known to be impacted by El Niño rainfall. Only the leading mode of variability in Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño can be reconstructed well, but it reflects most of the long‐term variability of El Niño exceptionally well. The reconstruction extends back to 1500 with exceptional skill and back to 1100 with acceptable skill. We can thus compare recent El Niño variability, perhaps affected by global warming, with what happened over the previous centuries unaffected by human activity. We find evidence for an increase in El Niño activity, and for an overall warming in recent decades. Key Points: Tree‐ring series from ENSO rainfall impact regions reconstruct tropical Pacific SSTs with high degrees of skill back to 1500 CE and 1100 CETwo very different reconstruction methods produce similar results and each can only reconstruct the leading EOF mode of SST variabilityReconstructions extending back 1100 CE indicate a recent increase in El Niño variability, and overall SST warming in the equatorial Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global temperatures were exceptionally high in 2023/24. Every month from June 2023 to June 2024 set a new record, and September shattered the previous record by 0.5 $0.5$°C. The 2023 annual average approached 1.5 $1.5$°C above pre‐industrial levels. This results from both long‐term warming and internal variability, with the occurrence of an El Niño episode. However the amplitude of the 2023/24 anomalies was remarkable and surprised the scientific community. Here we analyze the rarity of 2023/24 global temperatures from a climate perspective. We show that a 'normal' year 2023 would have roughly equaled the previous annual record, and that the most extreme events of 2023/24 rank among the most extreme since 1940. Our analysis suggests that the 2023/24 event can be reconciled with the long‐term trend and an intense, but not implausible, peak of internal variability. Plain Language Summary: 2023 was the warmest year on record at global scale, and early 2024 has continued to break records. This remarkable episode has received a great deal of attention from the general public and the scientific community. It is well established that it is linked to the long‐term global warming and the occurrence of an El Niño episode, but some temperature anomalies appeared so high, shattering previous records, that several scientists suggested that global warming may have been underestimated, which would have serious implications for future projections. Here we take a step back from the 2023/24 event, precisely quantify its rarity and compare it with other hot years. Using climate monitoring and extreme event attribution methods, we first show that at the current rate of warming, a 'normal' year 2023 would have equaled the 'old' record of 2016, even without any help of El Niño. We also find that the most extreme events of 2023/24 are among the most extreme of the entire record, but remain comparable with some past events. Our analysis thus suggests that the 2023/24 event is extreme but not incompatible with current estimates of global warming. Key Points: At the current rate of global warming, a normal year 2023 would have equaled the record of 2016, without any help of El NinoThe most extreme anomalies of 2023/24 rank among the most extreme of the entire record since 1940The 2023/24 heat can be reconciled with current estimates of global warming and an extreme but not implausible peak of internal variability [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual ocean–atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific, greatly influencing the global climate system. Seasonal phase locking, which means that ENSO events usually peak in boreal winter, is a distinctive feature of ENSO. In model future projections, the ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) amplitude in winter shows no significant change with a large intermodel spread. However, whether and how ENSO phase locking will respond to global warming are not fully understood. In this study, using Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) projections, we found that the seasonality of ENSO events, especially its peak phase, has advanced under global warming. This phenomenon corresponds to the seasonal difference in the changes in the ENSO SST amplitude with an enhanced (weakened) amplitude from boreal summer to autumn (winter). Mixed layer ocean heat budget analysis revealed that the advanced ENSO seasonality is due to intensified positive meridional advective and thermocline feedback during the ENSO developing phase and intensified negative thermal damping during the ENSO peak phase. Furthermore, the seasonal variation in the mean El Niño–like SST warming in the tropical Pacific favors a weakened zonal advective feedback in boreal autumn–winter and earlier decay of ENSO. The advance of the ENSO peak phase is also found in most CMIP5/6 models that simulate the seasonal phase locking of ENSO well in the present climate. Thus, even though the amplitude response in the winter shows no model consensus, ENSO also significantly changes during different stages under global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although autotrophic picophytoplankton (APP) is a sensitive component of phytoplankton responding to climate variability, little has been investigated in relatively undisturbed marine systems. This study aimed to assess the monthly dynamics of APP abundances from March 2009 to December 2010 and their association with regional climate variability at the Alfonso Basin station (Gulf of California). APP, the most abundant autotrophic component in the 0–100-m layer, and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) showed interannual variations associated with climate variability. APP abundance was positively correlated with temperature, salinity, and Chl-a, and significant negative correlations were established between nitrites + nitrates and phosphates. From July 2009 to April 2010, APP-integrated abundance explains at least 48% of the net primary productivity variation, suggesting a positive response to a prolonged influence of surface tropical water mass. According to the depth-integrated (0–100 m) abundance, APP variation was associated with the temporal evolution of Central Pacific El Niño 2009–2010 and multiannual warming that explains the positive trends in satellite sea surface temperature and stratification, and lower nutrient concentrations and N:P ratios values in the upper pycnocline layer at Alfonso Basin. These results highlight the importance of maintaining regional marine observatories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we aim to reconstruct southern India's intrinsic environmental changes over the past 1500 years from 3330 to 1830 cal BP by investigating the sedimentation and weathering dynamics in Lake Shantisagara, one of Karnataka's largest lakes. Four distinct climatic phases were delineated based on sedimentological, geochemical, and End Member Modelling Analysis (EMMA) results. Phase 1 (3330-3100 cal BP) is a short-term low rainfall zone characterized by a calm hydrodynamic environment and weak chemical weathering. Phase 2 (3100-2800 cal BP) is a climatically unstable phase, fluctuating between low and high rainfall conditions. Phase 3 (2800-2200 cal BP) is characterized by a stable, low rainfall climate with weak fluvial activity and chemical weathering. It is followed by a highly unstable phase marked by frequent extreme climatic events (Phase 4; 2200-1830 cal BP). Our study reveals a highly unstable hydrodynamic condition that culminated in potentially catastrophic high rainfall events that triggered intense and frequent floods in southern India around ∼2208, 2054, 1958, and 1891 cal BP. Comparative studies of regional records show that the regional climate pattern is similar. There is a strong effect of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) off the Malabar coast, location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the monsoon system in southern India. This suggests that there is a global teleconnection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 38‐year aerosol optical thickness (AOT) satellite product from the Advanced Very High‐Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is used to investigate the aerosol variabilities in the North Indian Ocean (NIO). A dipolar mode with a notable meridional contrast between the equatorial and northern NIO is revealed by the second mode of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis with a sharp rise over the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) since 2002. Our results show that the aerosol dipolar variation is primarily modulated by an El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 1983–2001 (ID1) and by a warm phase of Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO) during 2002–2020 (ID2), leading to a dry‐and‐warming condition spanning the coasts of East Africa, the Arabian Peninsula (AP), and South Asia (SA) that favors increasing aerosol emission and a longer life cycle in the upstream regions. A warm phase of the AMO tends to excite an anomalous cyclone in western Siberia and reinforces anticyclonic circulation in the Tibetan Plateau. Correlation analyses between the second EOF mode time series and other parameters in ID1 and ID2 show that an interannual dry‐and‐warming condition over the AP–SA is associated with a noticeable north‐south contrast of convection between the equatorial NIO and AP–SA in ID1. But in ID2, a zonal contrast of anomalous convective activities between the AP–SA and the BoB‐South China Sea is dominant, partially due to the warming AMO, which aids the development of anticyclonic cells over the TP and the strengthened subtropical westerly jet streams. Plain Language Summary: Using satellite aerosol observations during 1983–2020 and a multivariate statistical technique for temporal‐spatial analysis, we explored the aerosol long‐term and year‐by‐year variations in the North Indian Ocean (NIO). Our results show a significant rise in springtime aerosol over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal since the early 2000s, which is attributed to intensification of a dry‐and‐warming condition in the coasts of East Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia. A relatively low aerosol concentration before the early 2000s is mainly modulated by the anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in both the West and East Pacific associated with an El Niño or La Niña event, but an increasing aerosol concentration after the early 2000s is linked to warmer SST associated with a phenomenon called Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation (AMO). A warm phase of the AMO may aid the development of the remote teleconnection pattern in the midlatitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and thus reinforce the anomalies of atmospheric circulation in the subtropical regions. Key Points: A notable springtime aerosol rise over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal (ASBoB) since the early 2000s is revealed by using satellite dataThe El Niño events may cause a relatively low aerosol loading over the ASBoB during 1983–2001A warm‐phase Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation may favor a notable high aerosol loading over the ASBoB during 2002–2020 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electromagnetic waves in the Schumann resonance (SR) frequency range (<100 Hz) radiated by natural "lightning antennas" excite the Earth‐ionosphere cavity confined between the Earth's surface and the lower ionosphere. The peak frequencies of SR are known to vary with source‐observer distance (SOD), while the daily frequency range (DFR: fmax − fmin) is also indicative of the average size of thunderstorm regions. This paper provides observational evidence for these relationships based on SR frequency observations of the vertical electric (EZ) field component at Nagycenk (NCK), Hungary in Central Europe from the period 1994–2015. Variations of the peak frequencies are considered on the annual, seasonal and diurnal time scales as well as during a specific event when squall‐line formation of lightning activity in South America moves toward NCK. DFR is studied in relation to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Increasing area of lightning activity in mid‐high Northern hemisphere latitudes has been identified by DFR variations during the transition from warm to cold episodes of the ENSO in 1998 and 2010. The extension of the lightning area is considered as a consequence of energy released in the tropics and exported to higher latitudes with some months of delay from the end of the El Niño episodes. The frequency variations are interpreted via model calculations and supported with satellite‐based optical lightning observations (Optical Transient Detector, Geostationary Lightning Mapper). The described variations of SR peak frequencies and DFR yield information on the global/regional lightning dynamics and on this basis they have important application to climate issues as well. Plain Language Summary: Schumann resonances (SR) are global electromagnetic resonances maintained by global lightning activity in the cavity resonator formed by the Earth's surface and the lower ionosphere. This paper provides observational evidence for the relationships between the variations of SR peak frequencies of the first three resonance modes and the global/regional lightning dynamics on different time scales based on SR observations of the vertical electric (EZ) field component. As lightning is one of the essential climate variables that provides valuable information on the state of the atmosphere, the lightning source‐observer distance and lightning area‐dependent frequency variations demonstrated in this paper have important applications to climate issues as well. Key Points: Schumann resonance (SR) frequency variations of the EZ field component at nodal distances can be used to study global lightning dynamics at different time scalesThe movement of individual squall‐line formations in South America can cause detectable variations in SR peak frequency at NCK, HungaryExtratropical extension of global lightning activity is revealed during the transition from warm to cold phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are key agents in distributing extratropical precipitation and transporting moisture poleward. Climate models forced by historical anthropogenic forcing suggest an increase in AR activity in the extratropics over the past four decades. However, reanalyses indicate a ~6° to 10° poleward shift of ARs during boreal winter in both hemispheres, featuring a rise along 50°N and 50°S and a decrease along 30°N and 30°S. Our analysis demonstrates that low-frequency sea surface temperature variability in the tropical eastern Pacific exhibits a cooling tendency since 2000 that plays a key role in driving this global AR shift, mostly over extratropical oceans, through a tropical-driven eddy-mean flow feedback. This mechanism also operates on interannual timescales, controlled by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and is less pronounced over the Southern Ocean due to weaker eddy activity during austral summer. These highlight the sensitivity of ARs to large-scale circulation changes driven by both internal variability and external forcing in current and upcoming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El Niño typically induces cooling in the Southwest Pacific Ocean during austral summers, usually leading to decreased marine heatwave frequency and severity. However, the 2016 extreme El Niño unexpectedly coincided with the longest and most extensive marine heatwave ever recorded in the region. This heatwave, spanning over 1.7 million square kilometers, persisting for 24 days with a peak intensity of 1.5°C, resulted in massive coral bleaching and fish mortality. This exceptional warming resulted from anomalously strong shortwave radiation and reduced heat loss via latent heat fluxes, owing to low wind speed and increased air humidity. These anomalies are attributed to a rare combined event "Madden-Julian Oscillation and extreme El Niño." Following 10 February, the rapid dissipation of this marine heatwave results from the most intense cyclone ever recorded in the South Pacific. The hazardous ecological impacts of this extreme event highlight the needs for improving our understanding of marine heatwave-driving mechanisms that may result in better seasonal predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1997/1998 El Niño event caused mass coral bleaching and mortality in many tropical and subtropical regions, including corals on Green Island, Taiwan, in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. This study analyzed coral carbon isotope ratios (δ13C), oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O), and Sr/Ca ratios for 29 years, including the 1997/1998 El Niño period, to examine how high water temperature events are recorded in coral geochemical indicators. Sr/Ca ratios in coral skeletons from Green Island show the lowest peak, means the highest temperature during the 1997/1998 El Niño period. However, we couldn't observe high-temperature events on δ18O. Furthermore, a negative δ13C shift was observed after El Niño events. The regime shift of δ13C might have been caused by temporal bleaching and/or a decrease in symbiotic algae due to high water temperature stress under the continuous decrease in δ13C in DIC due to the Suess effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the construction of autobiographical discourse in Ramón Gómez de la Serna's book "Automoribundia." It delves into themes of death, identity, and the ethical responsibility of the narrator. The author emphasizes the importance of truth and authenticity in the autobiographical genre, while acknowledging the fluid nature of identity. The article also discusses Gómez de la Serna's writing style, influences, and his exploration of solitude and rejection of wealth and ambition. Additionally, it touches on his relationship with objects, women, and his political affiliations. [Extracted from the article]

We demonstrate a 1-year lagged extratropical response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in observational analyses and climate models. The response maps onto the Arctic Oscillation and is strongest in the North Atlantic, where it resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unexpectedly, these 1-year lagged teleconnections are at least as strong as the better-known simultaneous winter connections. However, the 1-year lagged response is opposite in sign to the simultaneous response such that 1 year later, El Niño is followed by a positive NAO, whereas La Niña is followed by a negative NAO. The lagged response may also interfere with simultaneous ENSO teleconnections. We show here that these effects are unlikely to be caused by residual aliasing of ENSO cycles; rather, slowly migrating atmospheric angular momentum anomalies explain both the sign and the timing of the extratropical response. Our results have implications for understanding ENSO teleconnections, explaining observed extratropical climate variability and interpreting seasonal to inter annual climate predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]