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Copyright of China Mining Magazine is the property of China Mining Magazine Co., Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, I demonstrate the adequacy of economic systems to the basic provisions of synergetics, which makes the latter eligible for macroeconomic analysis. In justifying this statement, a synergetic approach to the development of a model of economic cycles was considered. The novelty of this model was related to the probabilistic description of the investment function and the perception of the economic system as a material object with certain properties. According to the model, the income oscillations are induced by both exogenous (investment fluctuations) and endogenous (system elasticity) causes. The cycle's amplitudes correlate with the intensity of investment fluctuations as well as the efficiency of the economic system. The duration of the economic cycle is determined by the inclusive wealth of the system and its dynamic factor, which characterizes the ability of the system to withstand investment fluctuations and eliminates their consequences. Thus, the economic cycle is interpreted as the 'natural noise' accompanying the functioning of market economics.The proposed model creates a mathematical basis for the numerical analysis of empirical economic data. An example of possible econometric applications of the model was considered using the current cyclic contraction in US incomes.

In the last few years. the phenomenon of "shifting from the real to the virtual" of Chinese real enterprises has attracted great attention from all walks of life and has become a serious challenge in the current economic development process. Is the motivation of enterprises to " shifting from the real to the virtual" precautionary saving or speculating? Domestic and foreign scholars have not yet reached a consensus. Based on the quarterly data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2021. this paper empirically examines the impact of macroeconomic situation changes on the financial asset investment decisions of China's real listed companies from three macro dimensions: economic cycle fluctuations, monetary environment changes and capital market performance. Empirical studies have found that during the period of economic downturn, tight monetary environment and sluggish capital market, the proportion of total financial assets held by enterprises has declined, and the internal allocation of financial assets has also been affected, that is, the proportion of sound financial assets in total financial assets has increased, while the proportion of risky financial assets has declined. In terms of industry and region, this inhibition is more significant in the eastern region and private enterprises. Further analysis shows that compared with enterprises with weak financing constraints. the financial asset holdings of enterprises with strong financing constraints are more sensitive to macroeconomic changes, which indicates that the main motivation of the financialization of Chinese real enterprises is precautionary saving rather than speculating. This paper contributes to the existingliterature in the following three aspects. First. we take the three indicators of macroeconomic climate index, money supply and stock market return as the starting point to reconstruct the three dimensional perspective, this paper analyzes the bias of the internal allocation structure of corporate financial assets from the macro perspective, and examines the motivation of corporate financialization in China, which is helpful to clarify the macro and micro integration mechanism in the financialization problem, and further explain the driving mechanism of micro-enterprise financialization. Secondly, different from the existing literature that examines the precautionary saving motivation and speculating motivation of financialization in general, we not only study the impact of macroeconomic changes on the allocation behavior of financial assets of real enterprises in general, but also divide financial assets into two categories: stable financial assets and risky financial assets according to the characteristics of liquidity and risk, and analyzes the bias of the internal allocation structure of financial assets. This provides solid empirical evidence for understanding the allocation behavior of real enterprises to heterogeneous financial assets under the detailed classification, and enriches the literature in the field of corporate financialization motivation analysis. Thirdly, we consider the impact of financing constraints, property rights differences and regional differences on the relationship between macroeconomic changes and financial asset allocation behavior. which provides guidance for enterprises to rationally allocate financial assets under heterogeneous internal and external constraints. Our research, to a certain extent, reveals the inherent logic of the financialization behavior of Chinese enterprises and provides a new way of thinking for re-combing and understanding the phenomena of China's current economy "shifting from the real to the virtual", enterprise financialization and financial asset investment chaos. It has a strong practical significance for maintaining the stability of China's financial system and guiding the economy from virtual to real. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista CIENCIA UNEMI is the property of Universidad Estatal de Milagro (UNEMI) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In recent times, various crises have negatively affected the financial stability, job security, and health of countless individuals. According to research, different factors that operate at both the individual and contextual levels can play a prominent role in influencing people's self-employment during periods of economic downturn. This study investigates the changes in the likelihood of self-employment by gender and age across various contexts following sudden shocks. By analyzing the intersection of occupational choice and business cycle theories, this research offers insights into how crises affect people's ability to work for themselves. Using a sample of over 250,000 individuals from sixteen countries and applying a multilevel binary logistic regression analysis, the results confirm that women and older individuals are less inclined to be self-employed in general. However, unexpected economic recessions may lead to a slight increase in their likelihood of self-employment. Furthermore, when women and seniors live in a higher GDP per capita context, this context positively moderates the relationship between gender, age, and the propensity for entrepreneurship. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers seeking to promote resilient self-employment among vulnerable individuals for post-crisis recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relevance of the problems investigated in the article is determined by the fact that the world economy fragmentation worsens its dynamics, but its actual fragility became relevant after the global crisis of 2008–2009. In this regard, developing countries are increasingly characterized by extreme risks associated with the global markets’ instability – not only commodity markets, but also financial ones, where the innovative derivatives expansion has increased the speculators’ role, thereby making commodity markets more volatile. The overall situation is aggravated by debt problems in many countries. The purpose of the study is to investigate the nature and extent of the debt burden that has developed in the global economy in recent years and to assess the key challenges facing the monetary policies of countries around the world in order to counter the rising debt burden. The main results of the study include the assessment of the scale and nature of the debt burden in terms of its negative impact on global economic development, identification of the relationship between the business cycle passage and the debt accumulation in foreign countries, as well as the main directions of prospective monetary policy that will contribute to the debt burden reduction in the foreseeable future.

Background: Empirical evidence from European countries has shown that economic conditions in early life are associated with mortality risk. This study aims to assess the effects of economic conditions in early life, as well as their interaction with parental education, on the risk of adult mortality in the U.S. Methods: To capture exogenous variation of economic conditions early in life, we use the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) cyclical deviation during a respondent's birth year. Using the linked U.S. General Social Survey and National Death Index data (1979–2008), we employed parametric frailty survival models to examine the effects of economic conditions in early life on all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Results: We found that exposure to recession in the first year of life was associated with increased all-cause mortality only among women (hazard ratio = 1.54, 95% CI 1.03–2.31). This adverse effect was also found in women's mortality from cancers (hazard ratio = 2.24, 95% CI 1.18–4.28). We also found a significant interaction between economic conditions in infancy and paternal education on women's mortality risk—higher paternal education was protective against mortality under good economic conditions in infancy; however, higher paternal education was associated with greater mortality risk under poor economic conditions in infancy. We discuss how aspiration theory may explain these results. Conclusion: Our study concludes that worse macroeconomic conditions early in life heighten the risk of mortality among women, and paternal education moderates this relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a logistic oscillator model is presented to analyze the economic cycles of five selected economies: Mexico, Brazil, Canada, China and the United States. This selection was made taking as reference their level of economic development and their geographical position. The proposed model is an extension of the production Phillip's model (1959), which considers autonomous expenses dependent on time. It should be noted that the logistic oscillator combines the dynamics of a forced damped oscillator, whose restoring force incorporates Verhulst's logistic equation. The data used are the production levels of The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) at nominal prices of the mentioned nations. The results obtained show terms of no economic damping with explosive tendency. China shows greater nondamping with an explosive trend, as does Mexico. The countries with the greatest oscillatory behavior are Brazil and Canada. Additionally, those showing exponential dynamics are China and the USA. The fitting of the logistic oscillator to the data is significant given the level of the determination coefficient. Therefore, the results indicate that the model can be useful in formulating economic policy criteria, since it allows one to predict the evolution of the economic cycle in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Being intertwined with economic development, urbanization determines the present and future development path of regions and countries. The intimate relationship between urban expansion and economic development is of particular interest in the case of large regions with complex (and mostly non-linear) socio-demographic dynamics and a relevant primacy in the metropolitan system of a given country. Typical examples of advanced economies with settlement systems characterized by a high degree of city primacy are peripheral and disadvantaged European countries such as Portugal and Greece. For instance, the administrative region of Attica—centered on Athens, the Greek capital city—represents the largest metropolitan area of the country, hosting almost 3.8 million inhabitants in 2021 (36.2% of the Greek population). In this context, this study investigates the internal redistribution of the resident population in metropolitan Athens and the progressive development of satellite cities over a relatively longtime interval, testing the assumptions of the Spatial Cycle Theory (SCT) between 1951 and 2021 and predicting future development paths up to 2051. To investigate past, present, and future intra-regional population trends, we used data released from decadal (1951–2021) censuses and demographic forecasts for the years 2031, 2041, and 2051. Being in line with the SCT, the empirical results of our study document how demographic dynamics of individual centers influence largely—and independently—the long-term development of metropolitan regions, both with policy/planning regulation and in conditions of non-intervention (spontaneous urban growth). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines, from a comparative standpoint, the contribution of domestic tourism and international tourism to hotel sales revenue (HSR) and its three key revenue sources: room sales revenue (RSR), food and beverage sales revenue (FBR), and other sales income (OSR), using data from 2003 to 2020. The results indicate that domestic tourism has a greater impact on HSR than international tourism. In addition, we discovered that domestic tourism contributes more to OSR than RSR and FBR, but international tourism contributes more to FBR than OSR and RSR. Notably, panel threshold regression test results indicate that the effects of domestic tourist arrivals (DTA) on hotel sales (HSR, RSR and FBR) show different degrees of sensitivity to economic fluctuations. Domestic tourism's impact on hotel sales (HSR, RSR, FBR and OSR) is less sensitive to economic fluctuations than the impact of international tourism. The RSR's response to tourism is the least sensitive to economic cycles, whereas the FBR is the most sensitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Semestre Económico is the property of Sello Editorial de la Universidad de Medellin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

To delineate new directions of urban development in a context of demographic shrinkage in Southern Europe, the present study illustrates a comparative analysis of the demographic balance in metropolitan Athens, Greece (1956–2021). The analysis delineates short-term and long-term dynamics of the natural population balance, considering the impact of the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic, and assuming a contemporary increase in gross mortality rates and a marked fertility reduction associated with birth postponement. To address such objectives, we have compared the natural growth of population (the ratio of the total number of births to deaths) at ten year intervals (1956, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2009, 2019, 2020, 2021) in 115 municipalities of metropolitan Athens, controlling for the local context. The empirical results of descriptive statistics, spatial analysis, correlation statistics, non-parametric inference, and exploratory multivariate techniques outline the indirect impact of COVID-19 on population dynamics, being in some ways additive to the already observed effects of the Great Recession, reinforcing demographic shrinkage in specific local contexts. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Crisis likely accelerated the typical outcomes (population aging and low fertility) of the second demographic transition in Greece. These dynamics are associated with more volatile (and possibly reduced) immigration flows and with enhanced emigration, fueling urban shrinkage and a progressive economic decline of metropolitan regions, as our evidence suggests for Athens. Additional research should ascertain the aggregate, indirect role of pandemics in population dynamics as a proxy of urban and regional decline in European regions exposed to long-term aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this era of globalization, franchise expansion has become one of the main strategies for the growth of the retail industry. However, in a business context governed by Islamic principles, the concept of business ethics becomes increasingly relevant. This article explores the role of Islamic Business Ethics in the context of franchise expansion in the retail industry, with a focus on economic cycles and sharia business practices. Through a literature review, this article describes how Islamic business ethical values can direct franchise expansion steps, manage risks in fluctuating economic cycles, and implement sharia business practices that are in accordance with Islamic principles. This research discusses the implications of Islamic business ethics in strengthening the foundations of sustainability and long-term success for the retail industry which focuses on the principles of justice, social responsibility and economic balance. The research results show that the application of Islamic business ethics in franchise expansion in the retail industry can improve business performance, strengthen consumer trust, and promote business sustainability. This research highlights the importance of understanding and applying the principles of Islamic business ethics in the context of modern business, especially in the retail industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Transformations in Business & Economics is the property of Vilnius University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The creation of new firms is an important incentive for the economic growth of a country, since it generates employment, it encourages the competition, and promotes innovation. In this work, we investigate the survival of Spanish firms which were created since 2001 and closed down between 2004 and 2012. The information was gathered from Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC), a survey with a focus the technological innovation in Spanish firms. In particular, a Cox regression model with time-dependent covariates was used in order to identify and quantify the determinants of the risk of exit for the firm. The selection bias due to the interval sampling for the firms was corrected by using methods for doubly truncated lifetimes. Interestingly, it is seen how the correction for the selection bias changes both the size and the statistical significance of the effects provided by standard Cox regression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interaction between employment and the economic cycle allows us to observe the behavior of cooperatives in Spain and to discuss the achievement of SDG-8. This analysis aimed to determine the employment-generating potential of Spanish cooperatives. An inductive methodology was used through automation in three analyses. The results found that decent and resilient cooperative employment is concentrated in four regions: Catalonia, Galicia, Extremadura, and Murcia. Over the period (2005-2020), cooperatives generate or destroy less employment than all Spanish firms during financial crises. Conversely, during a health crisis, the total of companies generates or destroy less employment than cooperatives. The forecast is that all national regions, except Ceuta and Melilla, will generate more cooperative employment in the short term.

The specifics of Russian economic cycles, in particular, is that their course differs markedly in different regions, resulting in increased asymmetry in regional development. The paper studied of the influence of historical and sectoral factors, which determine the economic specialisation of the region, and the features of the sectoral structure of the regional economic in growth of the old industrial regions of Russia. Thus, the author concluded the nature of their dynamics mainly determines the sectoral factor and revealed a significant number of promising economic specialisations is a characteristic of the old industrial territories in virtue of the historical features of the industry growth in the Soviet period and the external position of economic activity. The outcome is that it is necessary to conduct a selective regional policy aimed at overcoming the limitations of the resource, organizational, and institutional nature of the development of old industrial regions.

ABSTRACTHistorically, Euro-Mediterranean European countries have presented high levels of intra- and interregional socio-economic inequalities and are regular recipients of financial support under European Union Cohesion Policy. This paper provides evidence of regional convergence in the size of lower- and upper-middle-income classes across regions of France, Greece, Italy and Spain for the period 2004–17. Our results also reveal that changes in class size in neighbouring regions are associated with changes in the same direction in the lower- and upper-middle classes of the region of interest. As regards growth of class size in neighbouring regions, the convergence process is offset in both middle-income groups, but only partially for the upper-middle class. Furthermore, the economic cycle affects the process of regional convergence in the size of the middle class, although the effects are non-homogeneous for both middle-class groups. While increases or decreases in gross domestic product (GDP) do not seem to be closely related to upper-middle-class size, relatively persistent decreases rather than increases in GDP over time tend to be more linked to lower-middle-class size. These findings point to significant differences in the convergence dynamics between lower- and upper-middle classes, with the former being more sensitive to both neighbouring regions and the business cycle.

The strengthening of the role of fiscal policy in Kazakhstan in recent years has updated studies of the impact of its instruments on the economy. In this regard, the assessment of the fiscal multiplier is an important research task that has practical significance for increasing the effect of fiscal policy. The purpose of this article is to estimate the fiscal multiplier in Kazakhstan. The quarterly data for the period from 2000 to 2022 from the official statistical sources of information were used. For the specified time period, the authors made two distinct estimates of the fiscal multiplier of Kazakhstan’s public expenditures: with and without considering economic cycles. The comparison of the simulation results allowed the authors to note the shortcomings of the fiscal multiplier estimation without considering economic cycles. In the cycle-ignoring model, the lag of government spending shock was overestimated. Moreover, the fiscal multiplier without cycles turned out to be significant at the 10% significance level and amounted to only 0.2. The fiscal multiplier in the model with cycles during the recession period turned out to be significant at the 1% significance level and amounted to 0.44, and during the expansion period,, it turned out to be insignificant for any lag. Based on these results, the authors conclude that the theoretical importance of fiscal measures in a recession is confirmed for Kazakhstan. However, during a period of economic growth above the potential level, an additional positive shock of government spending will not lead to positive effects on the economic growth.

Copyright of HMD: Praxis der Wirtschaftsinformatik is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article seeks to analyze to what extent the students of secondary school for youths and adults have been affected by phenomena that show a deterioration in their reproductive conditions during recent history. Although the specialized bibliography on the subject indicates that the students of the modality are crossed by issues such as unemployment, poverty and job precariousness, there are a series of limitations to know to what degree this is the case throughout the national territory and if there have been changes over time. Seeking to contribute to the issue, from a quantitative methodology an approximation to the situation of the population group from which the students come is made based on the Permanent Household Survey between the years 2003 and 2018. The main argument raised is that students have extremely degraded reproductive conditions that are linked to their belonging to the relative surplus population, although they have not remained unchanged, but have generally evolved in tune with the Argentine economic cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper was to assess the impact generated by the financial market shocks on the economic cycle in European countries. In addition to the studies from the literature, which focus more on the developed economies, this paper also considered the situation at the level of a group of emerging economies to highlight the potential differences. In this sense, it was analyzed how the shocks at the level of the banking sector, those at the level of the capital market, and those at the level of the real estate market influence the dynamics of the economic cycle. Both econometric models for the individual analyses of each state, such as the Bayesian vector autoregression model, and models at the level of groups of states, such as panel regressions, were used for the period 2007–2022. The results showed a strong connection between the dynamics of the financial system and that of the real economy. In addition, the impact of financial factors on the economic cycle tends to be much stronger and more significant in the case of developing countries, compared to developed ones. In this regard, it was recommended that fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated to generate the expected effect on the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, Euro-Mediterranean European countries have presented high levels of intra- and interregional socio-economic inequalities and are regular recipients of financial support under European Union Cohesion Policy. This paper provides evidence of regional convergence in the size of lower- and upper-middle-income classes across regions of France, Greece, Italy and Spain for the period 2004–17. Our results also reveal that changes in class size in neighbouring regions are associated with changes in the same direction in the lower- and upper-middle classes of the region of interest. As regards growth of class size in neighbouring regions, the convergence process is offset in both middle-income groups, but only partially for the upper-middle class. Furthermore, the economic cycle affects the process of regional convergence in the size of the middle class, although the effects are non-homogeneous for both middle-class groups. While increases or decreases in gross domestic product (GDP) do not seem to be closely related to upper-middle-class size, relatively persistent decreases rather than increases in GDP over time tend to be more linked to lower-middle-class size. These findings point to significant differences in the convergence dynamics between lower- and upper-middle classes, with the former being more sensitive to both neighbouring regions and the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Being intertwined with economic development, urbanization determines the present and future development path of regions and countries. The intimate relationship between urban expansion and economic development is of particular interest in the case of large regions with complex (and mostly non-linear) socio-demographic dynamics and a relevant primacy in the metropolitan system of a given country. Typical examples of advanced economies with settlement systems characterized by a high degree of city primacy are peripheral and disadvantaged European countries such as Portugal and Greece. For instance, the administrative region of Attica—centered on Athens, the Greek capital city—represents the largest metropolitan area of the country, hosting almost 3.8 million inhabitants in 2021 (36.2% of the Greek population). In this context, this study investigates the internal redistribution of the resident population in metropolitan Athens and the progressive development of satellite cities over a relatively longtime interval, testing the assumptions of the Spatial Cycle Theory (SCT) between 1951 and 2021 and predicting future development paths up to 2051. To investigate past, present, and future intra-regional population trends, we used data released from decadal (1951–2021) censuses and demographic forecasts for the years 2031, 2041, and 2051. Being in line with the SCT, the empirical results of our study document how demographic dynamics of individual centers influence largely—and independently—the long-term development of metropolitan regions, both with policy/planning regulation and in conditions of non-intervention (spontaneous urban growth).

AbstractThis paper aims to analyze changes in the transmission of monetary policy via bank lending when considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the financial crisis. Using bank-level data of 31 commercial banks in Vietnam from 2007 to 2021, we provide consistent evidence that the impact of monetary policy on bank lending tends to be more pronounced in the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides, we document that the bank’s loan supply is more sensitive to monetary policy adjustments during the global financial crisis. Thus, a general pattern can be detected, i.e. the monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel is stronger under unfavorable macro contexts in Vietnam. Accordingly, it can be suggested that adjustments in the monetary policy of the central bank have still been effective in periods of macro difficulty and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy in Vietnam is not necessary yet. Regression results when using the sample-splitting technique are consistent with those using interactive variables, providing evidence to confirm the robustness of the findings obtained in the study.

Fostering a new development dynamic is in nature about reshaping the relations between domestic and international economic cycles to achieve self-reliance and self-strengthening at higher levels. Economic cycle is the integration of various links such as production, distribution, exchange and consumption. This paper attempts to study the influence on economic cycle from income distribution based on the principles of political economy and therefore link common prosperity with the new development dynamic. It finds that labor income share is central to income distribution. On the supply side, income distribution affects choice of technology and production efficiency through changing wages; on the demand side, it influences size of demand and level of capacity utilization both directly and indirectly. Specifically, changing wages lead to changing size of reproduction and consumption by laborers in the direct way and cause changing profit margins and thus affect accumulation in the indirect way. The two channels produce effects simultaneously, yet in opposite directions, which justifies the categorization of economies into "profit-oriented" and "wage-oriented" ones according to the different influence of changing wages on the level of capacity utilization. In this theoretical logic, the paper comprehensively analyzes China's income distribution, wages, all labor productivity, organic composition of capital, profit margins, accumulation rates, level of capacity utilization and relations between domestic and international economic cycles, and finds that Chinese economy has turned from "profit-oriented" to "wage-oriented" since the turning point of 2010. It signals both necessity and feasibility of promoting common prosperity and fostering a new development dynamic. This paper also proposes some policy suggestions on promoting common prosperity from the perspectives of ownership, distribution, government-market relations and spatial structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subnational jurisdictions, compared to the apparatuses of countries and large institutions, have less resources and human capital available to carry out an updated conjunctural follow-up of the economy (nowcasting) and for generating economic predictions (forecasting). This paper presents the results of our research aimed at facilitating the economic decision making of regional public agents. On the one hand, we present an interactive app that, based on dynamic factor analysis, simplifies and automates the construction of economic synthetic indicators and, on the other hand, we evaluate how to measure the uncertainty associated with the synthetic indicator. Theoretical and empirical developments show the suitability of the methodology and the approach for measuring and predicting the underlying aggregate evolution of the economy and, given the complexity associated with the dynamic factor analysis methodology, for using bootstrap techniques to measure the error. We also show that, when we combine different economic series by dynamic factor analysis, approximately 1000 resamples is sufficient to properly calculate the confidence intervals of the synthetic index in the different time instants.

This paper analyzes the evolution of the Argentine gross domestic product between 1875-2010. It intends to analyze its trajectory over time according to the periods of greater or lesser economic integration that the country experienced. An explanation of the poor performance that occurs between 1970-2010 (second globalization) is presented and compared with the period 1885-1914 (first globalization). This paper presents a series of graphic arguments that will allow us to analyze the evolution of the Argentine gross product from 1885 to 2010. It is not intended to explain or investigate the specific causes or reasons for the prosperity or depression that Argentina experienced in each of its episodes. Instead, an attempt is made to present longterm stylized facts seeking to compare moments of opening versus those of a closed economy over which the country oscillated in order to analyze long-term growth and economic volatility.

The shipping industry is the foundation of the economy, and it is affected by fluctuations in the economic cycle. The mainstream of financial early warning research is quantitative modeling research. There are few systematic studies on financial early warning of shipping enterprises, and most of them still remain in the qualitative stage. This paper chooses Chinese listed shipping companies as its target, takes the economic cycle as an important reference, and then uses logistic regression, neural network, and random-forest methods to establish a model for financial warning. The random-forest model is employed to rank the importance of warning indicators. The results show that it is effective to consider macro-factors, such as the economic cycle, and the predictive accuracy of the random-forest method is higher than that of the financial warning models established by logistic regression and by the neural network. Financial alerts can help managers prepare for crises in advance. The purpose of this paper is to provide an early warning model for the sustainable development of shipping logistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the first half of 2022, China issued a package of policies to stabilize the economy, which proposed to expand credit supply and promote the steady decline of real loan interest rates. However, at the beginning of COVID-19, the policy of interest rate reduction in major economies such as the US and Britain failed to effectively stimulate economic recovery, even led to increased pressure on economic stagflation risk and the rising of asset prices, which should be taken as a warning by China. This paper uses data from Wind database, the Peoples's Bank of China and CIEnet statistics database. It constructs a mixed-frequency and markov-switching dynamic factor(MF-MS-DFM)model to measure the business cycle of China's economy, then examines the impact of interest rate cuts on macroeconomic and asset prices and the role of financial credit channel during different periods of economic cycle by constructing a counterfactual structural vector auto-regressive(CSVAR)model. The results show that during the economic expansion period, the interest rate reduction will accelerate the expansion of financial credit, and the financial credit channel can amplify the stimulating effect of the interest rate reduction on the macro-economy, but during the economic contraction period, the interest rate reduction will slow down the expansion of financial credit, and the financial credit channel will weaken the boosting effect of the interest rate reduction on the macroeconomy. During the period of economic expansion, the financial credit channel will magnify the devaluation effect of interest rate reduction on RMB, strengthen the role of interest rate reduction in pushing up house prices and stock prices, and mitigate the rise in bond prices caused by interest rate reduction. This paper proves that 1)the financial credit channel is an important factor in the effect of interest rate reduction on macroeconomic boost, and financial credit channel in the economic contraction period may cause the interest rate reduction to be unable to effectively stimulate the economic recovery; 2)during the economic expansion period, the housing price and the stock price rise after the interest rate reduction exist credit driven factor. Compared with the existing literature of the same kind, this paper makes the following three extensions: first, this paper takes into account the pro-cyclical nature of financial credit in the empirical research design. To accomplish this objective, it conducts a regional study on the sample data in the economic expansion period and the economic contraction period to make the research results more accurate and targeted. Secondly, in the view of data which are applicated, a single frequency of data is not used, but mixed frequency data is used to measure the economic cycle and construct macroeconomic indicators, retaining complete data information to make the measurement results of the economic cycle and the measurement of macroeconomic development level more reliable; Thirdly, in the view of model methodology, a counterfactual approach was used to strip away the impact of financial credit channel interference in the policy effect of interest rate cuts. By comparing the estimated results of benchmark models, the role of financial credit channel in the transmission mechanism of interest rate cuts can be accurately and intuitively demonstrated. The research in this article proves that financial credit channel is an important reason for the differences in the effects of interest rate reduction policies in different economic cycle stages. It provides references for the central bank to pay attention to the direction of interest rate policy formulation in different economic cycle stages, helps the central bank process interest rate policies more finely, and guides the central bank to enhance the macroeconomic boosting effect of interest rate reduction through financial credit management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Tiempo y Economía is the property of La Fundacion Universidad de Bogota Jorge Tadeo Lozano and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Subnational jurisdictions, compared to the apparatuses of countries and large institutions, have less resources and human capital available to carry out an updated conjunctural follow-up of the economy (nowcasting) and for generating economic predictions (forecasting). This paper presents the results of our research aimed at facilitating the economic decision making of regional public agents. On the one hand, we present an interactive app that, based on dynamic factor analysis, simplifies and automates the construction of economic synthetic indicators and, on the other hand, we evaluate how to measure the uncertainty associated with the synthetic indicator. Theoretical and empirical developments show the suitability of the methodology and the approach for measuring and predicting the underlying aggregate evolution of the economy and, given the complexity associated with the dynamic factor analysis methodology, for using bootstrap techniques to measure the error. We also show that, when we combine different economic series by dynamic factor analysis, approximately 1000 resamples is sufficient to properly calculate the confidence intervals of the synthetic index in the different time instants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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To delineate new directions of urban development in a context of demographic shrinkage in Southern Europe, the present study illustrates a comparative analysis of the demographic balance in metropolitan Athens, Greece (1956–2021). The analysis delineates short-term and long-term dynamics of the natural population balance, considering the impact of the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic, and assuming a contemporary increase in gross mortality rates and a marked fertility reduction associated with birth postponement. To address such objectives, we have compared the natural growth of population (the ratio of the total number of births to deaths) at ten year intervals (1956, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2009, 2019, 2020, 2021) in 115 municipalities of metropolitan Athens, controlling for the local context. The empirical results of descriptive statistics, spatial analysis, correlation statistics, non-parametric inference, and exploratory multivariate techniques outline the indirect impact of COVID-19 on population dynamics, being in some ways additive to the already observed effects of the Great Recession, reinforcing demographic shrinkage in specific local contexts. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Crisis likely accelerated the typical outcomes (population aging and low fertility) of the second demographic transition in Greece. These dynamics are associated with more volatile (and possibly reduced) immigration flows and with enhanced emigration, fueling urban shrinkage and a progressive economic decline of metropolitan regions, as our evidence suggests for Athens. Additional research should ascertain the aggregate, indirect role of pandemics in population dynamics as a proxy of urban and regional decline in European regions exposed to long-term aging.

Fiscal policy is one of the most crucial areas of government economic policy, and it has the potential to influence the economic growth of any nation. According to traditional Keynesian and Ricardian theories, fiscal policy should not be pro-cyclical, and counter-cyclical fiscal policy is the most effective alternative. Furthermore, the periodicity of fiscal policy is also heavily influenced by the quality of political institutions and democracies. Thus, this paper examines the relationship between fiscal policy and economic cycle in Vietnam, a developing economy with dramatic change since 2000. The results support the causal relationship between the set of fiscal policy factors, such as public debt, government tax revenues, and government expenditures, by analyzing quarterly data over a twenty-year period beginning in 2000 by using the Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). Therefore, the adaptation of fiscal policy to the phases of the economic cycle and the effective deployment of fiscal policy tools help the sustainability of public finances and stimulate economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article contributes to the literature analysing the role of public banks in crises. Taking the case of Spain, it analyses the behaviour of the public bank (ICO) between 1971 and 2015, specifically during two crises: the crisis of the 1970s, when Spain was an economically backward country coming out of a dictatorship; and that of 2008–13, by which time it had integrated into the international economy. Public credit underwent sweeping privatization in 1991, which translated into major downsizing. From then on, a gradual process of modernization began, mainly characterized by institutional changes in governance and access to resources. Our results indicate that public and private credit behave differently during recessions. Private credit always remains closely synchronized with the business cycle, but public credit less so. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is a heterodox Economic History on Political Economy, Macroeconomics and Applied Economics, based on the Austrian Economics theory of business cycles, applied to the case of the Spanish Economy during the boom-bust cycle (2002-2014). Attention is focused on the endemic problem of business cycles, such as successive and distorting periods of boom and bust that modern economies suffer, as with the Spanish economy. This work reviews the analysis of the Austrian School of Economics´ theory and its development, with attention to the empirical renewal line (into the school), which used econometric support, to help the communication with other economic schools. Consequently, there is a review of the main econometric literature on the Austrian cycle, followed with an illustration of the case of Spain in the Eurozone. In this way, it is possible to better understand the cycle of boom and bust by means of new currency emission and how to help econometric tools to illustrate economic principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing the effect of business cycle on rating transitions has been a subject of great interest these last 15 years, particularly due to the increasing pressure coming from regulators for stress testing. In this paper, we consider that the dynamics of rating migrations, in a pool of credit references, is governed by a common unobserved latent Markov chain. We explain how the current state of the hidden factor, can be efficiently inferred from observations of rating histories. We then adapt the classical Baum–Welch algorithm to our setting and show how to estimate the latent factor parameters. Once calibrated, we may reveal and detect economic changes affecting the dynamics of rating migration, in real time. The filtering formula is then used to predict future transition probabilities according to the economic cycle without using any external covariates. We propose two filtering frameworks: a discrete and a continuous version. We demonstrate and compare the efficiency of both approaches on fictive data and on a corporate credit rating database. The methods could also be applied to retail credit loans. Finally, under a point process filtering framework, we extend the standard discrete-time filtering formula to a more general setting, where the hidden process does not need to be a Markov chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]