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ABSTRACT The research's main objectives are to verify systemic differences between OECD countries in terms of their early responses to the COVID‐19 economic challenge and to compare newly established taxonomy with old patterns determined by classifications that can be found in the literature. Research is based on a few methods of cluster analysis—hierarchical clustering and the k‐means method are supplemented with insights derived from the application of c‐means fuzzy clustering. It also applies Rand and Jaccard indices to compare a new taxonomy with existing classifications of welfare states and capitalistic systems. Objective comparison of the new taxonomy with those existing in the literature with the application of statistical methods is the most significant contribution of the article. Results suggest that it is possible to distinguish various strategies for dealing with the COVID‐19 economic consequences in the early period of the pandemic, but demarcation lines between particular clusters significantly differ from the findings of previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government–business relations have been central to general discussions on policymaking in democratic states. This study analyzes government–business relations in policymaking during economic booms and crises in New Order Indonesia (March 1966–May 1998). The analysis is based on pluralist, state autonomy, and capacity theories, and critical discourse analysis is applied to textual sources to reveal the historical dimensions of policymaking during the economic booms and downturns under the New Order Indonesia. The findings show that policymaking during these periods was characterized by complex, dialectical, and dynamic relations between the government and businesses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the phenomenon of 'sellers' inflation', that is to say, the increases in consumer prices as a result of firms' decision to increase their selling prices as much as possible in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. This analysis focuses also on central banks' responses to such inflationary pressures, which monetary authorities have been trying to limit with several increases in their policy rates of interest. The paper explains the major shortcomings of this monetary policy strategy and its negative consequences for a number of economic agents. The last section puts forward an alternative economic policy stance, proposing in particular a series of 'green' monetary policy interventions to address these inflationary pressures in the general interest for the common good. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do hard economic times affect countries' foreign policy and, specifically, their international commitments? Although a large body of literature assumes that economic crises lead to the prioritization of domestic politics at the expense of international cooperation, these claims are rarely subjected to systematic empirical tests. This study examines one important aspect of these relationships: the consequences of economic crises for the survival of international organizations (IOs), a question that attracted only scant scholarly attention to date. Theoretically, we argue that even though economic crises can weaken member states' commitment to IOs, they also underscore their ability to tackle the root causes of such crises and mitigate their most pernicious effects. As such, economic crises are actually conducive to IO longevity. We expect this effect to be especially pronounced for currency crises, IOs with an economic mandate, and regional IOs, given their particular relevance for international cooperation during hard economic times. These conjectures are tested with a comprehensive sample of IOs and data on currency, banking and sovereign debt crises from 1970 to 2014. Using event history models and controlling for several alternative explanations of IO survival, we find ample empirical support for the theoretical expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To analyze the behavior of the dividend distribution of publicly traded Brazilian companies according to the effects of the business cycles, comparing the stages of recovery, expansion, recession, and contraction (Schumpeter, 1935) with the stages of expansion and recession according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Originality/value: According to Schumpeter (1935), classifying the stages of the business cycle presents greater details to the NBER method because the four stages show different characteristics that are not observed when only the two stages of the NBER model are used. Design/methodology/approach: Information was collected from 243 publicly traded companies listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange between 1997 and 2021 to achieve the research objective. Data were obtained from the Refinitiv database, using panel data regression models with random effects to analyze two hypotheses defined in this study. The hypotheses state that the behavior of the relationship between the payment of dividends and the stages of the NBER’s bearish (high) business cycles is different from the recession and contraction stages (recovery and expansion), according to Schumpeter. Findings: The results indicated the non-rejection of the hypotheses, reinforcing the importance of the analysis of the four stages of the business cycles and complementary form by investors, analysts, managers, and other users when analyzing the payment of dividends by publicly held companies at the different levels of economic activity in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scope and reach of fiscal policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic contrasted with the fiscal policy implemented in the immediate aftermath of the 2007 global financial crisis. However, the advent of high inflation that followed effectively nipped the prospects of a more radical shift in the fiscal policy paradigm in the bud, with monetary policy taking the lead. This article analyses the causes of the subsequent lack of a step change in the approach to fiscal policymaking through a comparative study of fiscal policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK and the USA. Based on qualitative interdisciplinary analysis, the article shows how the ideological foundations of fiscal policy are formed and their consequences for policy implementation in times of crises and recovery. The article discusses what changes in the approach to fiscal policy are needed to secure a more equitable, long-term economic prosperity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract East Africa struggles with a profound challenge in ensuring food security amidst the convergence of climate change, economic crises, and conflicts. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the interconnected and compounding effects of these three factors on the region’s food security landscape. It investigates the complex ways in which shifting climatic patterns disrupt agricultural systems, exacerbating food scarcity and amplifying vulnerabilities among marginalized communities. The study also examines the intertwined impact of economic downturns, which diminish access to resources, disrupt supply chains, and deepen food insecurity. Furthermore, the paper scrutinizes the ramifications of persistent conflicts, which not only displace populations but also destabilize agricultural production, aggravating food shortages. To achieve the objective of this, review the authors have collected the relevant documents through search engines of Web of Science, Google, Google Scholar, Scopus, and Science Direct databases. This review found that climate change, economic instability, and conflict are the primary challenges to food security in East Africa. Climate change exacerbates extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and pest infestations, reducing agricultural productivity and economic growth. Economic instability stems from a lack of industrialization, dependence on foreign aid, and significant investment gaps, resulting in persistent poverty and underdevelopment. Additionally, conflict and instability disrupt agricultural activities, displace populations, and restrict access to essential resources, further aggravating food insecurity. The study emphasizes the necessity for coordinated efforts among governments, international organizations, and local communities to navigate these intersecting crises and establish sustainable pathways toward enhanced food security in the region.

The research relevance is determined by the need to study and solve problems related to investment support of industries in modern conditions to ensure sustainable and efficient functioning of the country’s economy and strengthen its competitiveness in the international market. The study aims to analyse modern strategies of investment support of industries to identify their effectiveness and develop recommendations for optimizing this process in the context of current economic conditions. The study employed analytical, statistical and comparative methods. The study addresses the importance of investments for industrial development and their impact on the country’s economy and its competitiveness in the international arena. The study emphasized that investments contribute to the expansion of production and the introduction of new technologies, which increases productivity and product quality. The main recommendations of the article relate to improving the investment environment, by simplifying administrative and legal procedures and fighting corruption, developing infrastructure, protecting investors’ rights and stimulating innovation. The influence of economic, social, political and environmental factors on the investment climate in industry was addressed. The study noted that technological competition, environmental requirements and political instability are key challenges that affect investment support for industry. The investment situation in Ukraine was examined on the example of Metinvest and Kernel. Both companies are successfully attracting investment to develop their infrastructure capabilities and improve services. The article concludes that it is necessary to create favourable conditions for investment and accelerate industrial development in Ukraine by improving the investment climate, stimulating innovation and attracting foreign investment. The practical significance of the study lies in the development and implementation of strategies and measures aimed at improving the investment climate and ensuring the sustainable development of industries, which will contribute to the growth of the country’s economy and increase its competitiveness

The analytical review of studies of the anti-crisis role of fiscal federalism during economic, ecological, epidemic challenges and territorial conflicts in 1950–2024 reveals four paradoxes. The first of them indicates the scientific validity of the positive anti-crisis effect of fiscal decentralization. But when crises arise in practice, decentralization turns out to be unclaimed, and preference is given to centralization. The second paradox is related to the nonlinear positive effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth, natural resources consumption, and carbon emissions. For example, the nonlinear positive effect of decentralization is achieved when the institutional context is improved. The third paradox is the relatively weak methodological elaboration of fiscal federalism during pandemic challenges, although it had the greatest practical relevance compared to more in-depth econometric studies of economic and environmental challenges. The fourth paradox is that fiscal federalism can both resolve the territorial conflict and create the preconditions for its resumption in the future. The peacemaking conditions of fiscal federalism are transparency and stability of inter-budget transfers, as well as insured access of the conflict region to its natural resources.

In mid-April 2020, the global financial markets plunged into financial crisis from the unprecedented worldwide lockdowns for an extended period.

In this research, within the specified years, corn in Türkiye by years; It is aimed to determine the existence of a causality between the production amount, cultivation area, yield, export amount, import amount and economic crises added as dummy variables. For this purpose, corn production, corn cultivation area, corn yield, corn export amount and corn import amount in the statistical tables between 1995 and 2020 published by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO; 2021). In addition, the crisis years were added to the data set as a dummy variable to see the crisis effect. In the research, Augmented Dickey Fuller method is the test that checks whether the series is stationary. After deciding that the series is non-stationary with the ADF test, the most appropriate lag length was determined with the VAR (Variance Autoregressive Model) model, and the analysis was carried out with the help of the VAR Granger Causality method. According to the estimation results, corn in the statistical tables between 1995-2020; In the data set, in which the crisis years were added as a dummy variable to see the effects of the crisis in terms of production, cultivation area, yield, export amount and import amount; First difference is stationary, Akaike Information Criterion is the smallest, 2nd lag length is the most suitable lag length, and corn; corn; It has been determined by the analysis that production amount, import amount and economic crises are a one-way cause of exports, and corn cultivation area is a one-way cause of economic crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing studies that explore the relationship between business cycles and health remain debated. This study investigates the effects of economic fluctuation on obesity in the United States. Using the county-level unemployment rates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), we find that people are less likely to be obese during economic downturns. Particularly, a one percentage points increase in unemployment rates would lead to the chances of being obese reduced by 0.45% points. We further explore the underlying mechanisms of how business fluctuations affect obesity. We find that people tend to do more exercise and spend less on food expenditure during the economic downturns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study critically examines the impact of international sanctions on bureaucratic quality in 74 developing countries from 1990 to 2020, highlighting how global governance mechanisms influence domestic institutional capacities. By focusing on the interaction between sanctions and economic crises, the research provides fresh empirical evidence on how external political pressures can inadvertently hinder development trajectories in the Global South. Utilizing a fixed-effect regression methodology with robust controls and addressing endogeneity concerns, the findings reveal that international sanctions—especially multilateral ones from the EU and UN—significantly deteriorate bureaucratic quality, particularly during economic crises. This deterioration undermines state capacity, exacerbates inequalities, and challenges the effectiveness and fairness of sanctions as tools of global governance. The study contributes to debates on global development by demonstrating how sanctions can reinforce global power asymmetries and produce divergent development outcomes. It urges a re-evaluation of sanctions within international policy, advocating for more equitable and context-sensitive approaches that prioritize the institutional integrity and development needs of vulnerable nations. The research underscores the importance of aligning global governance mechanisms with ethical principles and development goals, promoting dialogue and collaboration over punitive measures to achieve a more inclusive and sustainable global development paradigm.

Copyright of OPUS Journal of Society Research is the property of OPUS - International Journal of Society Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Optimum. Economic Studies is the property of University of Bialystok and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

For more than thirty years, Bulgarian society has experienced continuous processes related to uncertainty in economic, social, spiritual and even existential spheres. One of the attempts to overcome the risks of social exclusion and marginalisation can be considered the creation of small enterprises, many of which are family businesses. In these, family relations are intertwined with professional roles and a specific notion of work-kinship relations emerges for the needs of entrepreneurial practice. The article presents an anthropological study of the social impact of economic uncertainty on owners of Bulgarian family enterprises in various economic areas. The main research questions relate to how to define crisis and uncertainty in family entrepreneurship, the subjective level of perception and evaluation of instability, and the main factors for enhancing uncertainty. Based on ethnographic research of three family businesses, I define the socio-cultural strategies for dealing with the consequences of uncertainty, exploring them in the course of their development, and outline some issues related to business and family planning. My main thesis is that the search for means to control economic uncertainty leads to various approaches aimed at increasing social security in the field of family entrepreneurship. Fear of threats and risks in the public sphere which cannot or can barely be controlled by small entrepreneurs is compensated for by investing attention and care in the private sphere and the professional field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Journal of Babylon Center for Humanities Studies is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The essence of balanced economic development lies in ensuring sustainable growth that harmonizes environmental, social, and economic objectives. This article delves into the foundational principles that underpin balanced economic development, emphasizing the integration of sustainability into economic planning and policy-making. Through a comprehensive analysis of recent studies and methodologies, it identifies gaps in current approaches and suggests a framework for achieving economic balance. Additionally, it examines the impact of economic crises and the direct relationship between crisis phenomena and balanced economic development. The significance of this research lies in its potential to inform policy directions that foster an equitable, sustainable, and prosperous future for all stakeholders, while also addressing the resilience of economic systems in the face of crises. The proposed framework not only aims to mitigate the adverse effects of economic downturns but also to leverage these challenges as opportunities for fostering sustainable and balanced growth.

In the last decade the world has experienced a number of global crises which triggered economic downturns. Impacts from the global financial crisis, the global COVID pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine trigger instability in financial markets. This paper explores similarities and differences between these crises based on inflation and its energy-related components. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is used to analyze both EU-level trends, as well as data for Romania. The findings indicate idiosyncratic shifts in the relationships between variables. The changes are often specific to individual shocks and the policy context. How policy makers respond to these shocks will also impact the fiscal space, the borrowing costs of countries, and the cost of servicing debt, which risks a return to the type of austerity policies that slowed down the post-financial crisis recovery. There is a need for more detailed research and investigations in policy responses designed to respond to ongoing events.

An analysis of the similarity of countries’ economic developments can provide an important premise for both the assessment of current international economic relations and the long-term prediction of their economic development potential.

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The aim of this paper is to apply the concept of marginal vertical income convergence to analyze the influence of the two last economic downturns (2007 and 2020) on the sustainability of the equalization of income levels within the European Union. The methodology used enables us to avoid some restrictions of the classical analysis of income convergence. Income convergence models were estimated using data from the period 1993–2022, excluding the impact of outliers. The results confirm that we can observe the progressive process of the absolute income convergence for EU members, but there are significant differences between countries' contributions to the process. These differences are caused by different paths of economic growth, and different mean resilience to economic crises, as well as different patterns of income inequalities. Their proper recognition allows us to develop efficient policies aimed at social cohesion, reducing income inequalities (the 10th Sustainable Development Goal), and sustainable economic development. Additionally, the estimated models indicated a definite different impact of the last two economic shocks on the European process of income convergence. The first shock significantly slowed down the income convergence process, while the second one was practically neutral in this context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the best efforts of specialists and researchers, economic crises continue to occur, as is evident from mass media, specialized journals, and empirical data. Their impact on economic systems is complex, and the precise relationship between such events and economic conditions is not obvious. A new branch of economics is intended to provide a better understanding of this topic. The present work explores the potential of a new tool that the management of industrial enterprises may use to monitor the conditions associated with crises. The results shed light on the requisites for support of management decision making in an unstable environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Al Bashaer Economic Journal is the property of Al Bashaer Economic Journal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The occurrence of large-scale crises is a great challenge for people. In such cases, many levels of public life are affected and recovery takes time and considerable resources. Therefore, approaches and tools for predicting and preventing crises, as well as models and methods for crisis management and crisis overcoming, are necessary. In this review, we present approaches, models, and methods that support decision-making in relation to the prevention and resolution of large-scale crises. We divide crises into three types: natural disasters, pandemics, and economic crises. For each type of crisis situation, the types of applied tasks that are solved and the corresponding models and methods that are used to support decision-makers in overcoming the crises are discussed. Conclusions are drawn on the state of the art in this area and some directions for future work are outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of relationship banking and collateral on the probability of firm loan default in Kosovo. Using a sample of 2,320 loan-level data from an individual bank credit register, findings indicate that stronger firm-bank relationships reduce the probability of default, and tighter credit policies regarding higher collateral requirements and interest rates have the opposite effect. Re-specifying the model to control for the banking sector concentration Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI) and the Net Interest Margin (NIM), the firm-bank relationship is no longer statistically significant. Results show that the crisis negatively impacts credit risk, while HHI positively affects the probability of loan default. This evidence suggests that banking relationship matters only in competitive markets. To test the potential interaction effect between relationship banking and collateral, Fairlie's (1999) decomposition technique is deployed. Our results imply that high concentration levels in the banking sector render firm-bank relationships relatively less important. This is of utmost importance for SMEs, banks, and policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Arab Journal for Archives, Documentation & Information (AJADI) is the property of Temimi Foundation for Scientific Research & Information and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the last decade the world has experienced a number of global crises which triggered economic downturns. Impacts from the global financial crisis, the global COVID pandemic, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine trigger instability in financial markets. This paper explores similarities and differences between these crises based on inflation and its energy-related components. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is used to analyze both EU-level trends, as well as data for Romania. The findings indicate idiosyncratic shifts in the relationships between variables. The changes are often specific to individual shocks and the policy context. How policy makers respond to these shocks will also impact the fiscal space, the borrowing costs of countries, and the cost of servicing debt, which risks a return to the type of austerity policies that slowed down the post-financial crisis recovery. There is a need for more detailed research and investigations in policy responses designed to respond to ongoing events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is devoted to the formation of an economy in which there is a relative surplus of money. Excess money is seen as a consequence of the policy of quantitative easing, which was carried out by the central banks of developed countries. Peculiarities of growth in the ratio of money supply and gross domestic product for individual countries have been studied. It is shown that financing the reconstruction of Ukraine corresponds to the own economic interests of the donor countries, as it will help to correct certain systemic imbalances of monetary circulation in their economies. This imbalance is embodied in a relative surplus of money. This surplus is of a different nature than that implied by the quantity theory of money. From the point of view of behavioral economics, money is a tool for motivating the subject to action (or, when necessary, inaction). Stimulation of activity, in particular, entrepreneurial activity, due to the opportunity to get more money is a characteristic feature of the capitalist economy. Considering that the value of money is important not in itself, but in relation to what it is used for, we can imagine that the creeping inflation of even the most seemingly basic and solid world currencies (the US dollar, the British pound, the euro) is evidence of a certain loss of vision of what money is needed for and, accordingly, how much money is needed in the economy. The dynamics of the ratio of the money supply to the manufactured product can serve as an indicator of the existence of a problem in the monetary supply of the functioning of the world economy. A gradual increase in the ratio of money supply to GDP is observed in all countries. The rate of growth of this indicator in developed countries is generally close to the world average. In poor countries characterized by low rates of economic growth, the ratio of money supply to GDP remains quite low. Moreover, in our opinion, the leading role here is played not so much by low per capita income as by low rates of economic growth. According to the group of countries with an average level of per capita income (and especially, with “above average” incomes), the ratio is significantly higher than the world average level. The growth of the ratio of money supply to GDP is especially noticeable in the countries of the Far East, which took as an example the strategy that led to the Japanese “ economic miracle.” This strategy involves the acceleration of economic growth at the expense of the preemptive development of export-oriented industries. Periods of accelerated economic development precisely reveal the motivational role of money. Entrepreneursinnovators should receive more money. the state, or rather, its monetary regulator, the central bank, facilitates the conditions providing loans to help innovators dare and take a decisive step into something new. Entrepreneurs have separated the desire to earn money from the desire to spend to meet real needs. Due to the saturation of the economy with money, the state has already reached a high level of monetization, which indicates accumulated monetary wealth. The owners of this monetary wealth need new directions of investment, because after the ideological and motivational potential of Internetization was exhausted, the banking and financial infrastructure began to fail. A series of crises (2001, 2008-2009, 2020) was the result of a mismatch between the large accumulated monetary wealth and the lack of ideas for its profitable investment. Reconstruction of Ukraine can become such a profitable investment idea.

In the last three years, the whole world has been struck by several crises. These extraordinary circumstances made many governments intervene much more in the economy, including tax law amendments. Many countries, including the Czech Republic, decreased several taxes or even abolished some as a kind of subsidy. This has resulted in a sharp rise in the public debt. The paper’s main aim and also the hypothesis to be confirmed or disproved is to answer the question of whether it would not be better to leave tax systems untouched in times of economic and other crises. To meet the contribution objectives, the IMRaD structure of the article is being used. The research part indicates amendments to the tax acts in the recent three years, justified on the grounds of the economic crises caused by the COVID-19 pandemic or consequences connected with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the discussion, the relationships between the new legal norms and the legal behavior of taxpayers are predicted, and the effects of legal regulation on the economic behavior of taxpayers are explained. Legal amendments also affect public budgets’ revenues. In conclusion, the strengths and weaknesses of de lege lata regulation in the study area are identified, and amendments de lege ferenda are suggested.

Purpose: The research represents witticism and humorous pictures, showcasing Pakistan’s economic issues on social media. The study highlights two important points of view, i.e., how these memes make an impression on people’s thinking about Pakistan and raise awareness in the young generation to pay attention to the developed economic condition of the country. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Fairclough model is used by the researchers to study social media’s impact on economic discussions. 30 memes have been collected from Facebook, Twitter, and other social media platforms through random sampling to see how these memes have changed the perspective and mindset of people, especially the young generation, who care about Pakistan’s economic problems. Findings: The results of this research highlight the hidden meanings in these memes and discuss their role in Pakistan’s economic condition. It is also evident from the results that some memes are used to create fun for the audience, but many of them are used to criticise government policies. Creating memes related to economic crises raised the issue of economy-building, highlighting the significance of the economy for purposes other than academic research and addressing societal issues. Implications/Originality/Value: The government should invest in infrastructure to facilitate market access and boost economic growth. Income disparities may be minimised by fostering economic growth, which increases people's access to jobs and economic possibilities. Finally, Pakistan should encourage social cohesiveness.

Crisis management is the ability of the organization to realize the current and potential risks and threats and work to avoid them or reduce their negative effects to rebalance the system in the shortest possible time and start its activity again and draw lessons learned to prevent the recurrence of the crisis or improve ways to deal with it in the future and take advantage of the opportunities it offers. Crisis and disaster management is a critical component of any organization's emergency preparedness plans. Effective management of these events can save lives, reduce property damage and help communities and businesses recover faster. By following the steps described above, organizations can develop a comprehensive plan that ensures their readiness for any crisis or disaster that may occur, and this is achieved through the training sustainability of institutional cadres in their various specialties and understanding the mechanisms of emergency action for each working group related to the crisis and disaster management program with the involvement of security forces and the media in trainings and updating plans because of their importance in response and empowerment plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of External Economic Bulletin / Külgazdaság is the property of KOPINT Konjunktura Kutatasi Alapitvany and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Identifying macroeconomic events that are responsible for dramatic changes of economy is of particular relevance to understanding the overall economic dynamics. We introduce an open-source available efficient Python implementation of a Bayesian multi-trend change point analysis, which solves significant memory and computing time limitations to extract crisis information from a correlation metric. Therefore, we focus on the recently investigated S&P500 mean market correlation in a period of roughly 20 years that includes the dot-com bubble, the global financial crisis, and the Euro crisis. The analysis is performed two-fold: first, in retrospect on the whole dataset and second, in an online adaptive manner in pre-crisis segments. The online sensitivity horizon is roughly determined to be 80 up to 100 trading days after a crisis onset. A detailed comparison to global economic events supports the interpretation of the mean market correlation as an informative macroeconomic measure by a rather good agreement of change point distributions and major crisis events. Furthermore, the results hint at the importance of the U.S. housing bubble as a trigger of the global financial crisis, provide new evidence for the general reasoning of locally (meta)stable economic states, and could work as a comparative impact rating of specific economic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we deal with a network analysis of interconnected cabinets in Greece for an extended time period. In parallel, we present a small review of the economic crises that have occurred in Greece over this period. More particularly, we used historical sources to locate all different Greek governments and all economic crises starting from the 1821 Greek revolution to the present days. We also formed a two-mode (also known as affiliation) network of ministers and cabinets and subsequently created a network of interconnected cabinets. We used dedicated software to visualize this network and used Social Network Analytical procedures in order to calculate its properties. Finally, in an attempt to investigate possible relations between network metrics and economic crises, we note and discuss an interesting observation between a specific metrics and such major economic events. In our paper, we firstly introduce the context and present our research questions. We then present the relevant literature, mainly discussing the extent to which Social Network Analysis has been used to investigate patterns of behaviors in politics. We then proceed to presenting and applying our methodology on network creation, visualization and metrics computations. The following section discusses the longitudinal evolution of our network and the relation between its clustering coefficient and the emergence of economic crises. We then finalize our paper with some conclusions.

The purpose of the research: Most importantly، addressing this issue is useful in enabling economic policymakers to determine the success or failure of policy initiatives adopted by banks. The theoretical framework was the impact of the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy on the effectiveness of the Iraqi private banking sector and the decline in competition in the developmental environment of the economy as a whole، and this made the contribution of the banking sector marginalized in the overall economic activities، and this leads to its impact on economic and financial crises and the inability to develop a clear vision of stable investment portfolios. The findings of the study were that the Iraqi banking sector was greatly affected by the economic crises due to the existence of a correlation between the exchange rate indicators of the study sample banks (which are all of the market value، gross domestic product، international oil prices and economic crises) with the crises that Iraq witnessed during the study period 2010-2020، and here The Iraqi economy is affected by the economic crises along with the performance of the investment portfolios of the Iraqi banks. The study aimed to measure the indicators of the closing price of the Iraqi bank sector during the period (2010-2020). Research practical and social implications come from studying all efficient banks or other financial intermediaries is how to motivate banks to introduce modern and advanced systems within their business systems، by financing businessmen who are seen as having the best opportunities to successfully develop new products and implement innovative production processes، Originality/value of this study comes from identifying that banks become more and better than the past, Here, this is reflected in the soundness of the financial system and then the soundness of the economic system in general، and ultimately leads to an increase in economic growth rates.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the mental health of the population. Many studies reported high levels of psychological distress and rising rates of suicidal ideation (SI). Data on a range of psychometric scales from 1790 respondents were collected in Slovenia through an online survey between July 2020 and January 2021. As a worrying percentage (9.7%) of respondents reported having SI within the last month, the goal of this study was to estimate the presence of SI, as indicated by the Suicidal Ideation Attributes Scale (SIDAS). The estimation was based on the change of habits, demographic features, strategies for coping with stress, and satisfaction with three most important aspects of life (relationships, finances, and housing). This could both help recognize the telltale factors indicative of SI and potentially identify people at risk. The factors were specifically selected to be discreet about suicide, likely sacrificing some accuracy in return. We tried four machine learning algorithms: binary logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, and support vector machines. Logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost models achieved comparable performance with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.83 on previously unseen data. We found an association between various subscales of Brief-COPE and SI; Self-Blame was especially indicative of the presence of SI, followed by increase in Substance Use, low Positive Reframing, Behavioral Disengagement, dissatisfaction with relationships and lower age. The results showed that the presence of SI can be estimated with reasonable specificity and sensitivity based on the proposed indicators. This suggests that the indicators we examined have a potential to be developed into a quick screening tool that would assess suicidality indirectly, without unnecessary exposure to direct questions on suicidality. As with any screening tool, subjects identified as being at risk, should be further clinically examined. • SI can be predicted with machine learning based on change of habits, coping with stress and satisfaction with life. • Machine learning models achieved performance of 0.83 AUROC on previously unseen data. • The indicators we examined might have a potential to be developed into a quick screening tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]