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Whether species are capable of adapting to rapid shifts in climate raises considerable interest. Analyses based on niche models often assume niche conservatism and equilibrium with climate, implying that species will persist only in regions where future climatic conditions match their current conditions and that they will colonize these regions promptly. However, species may adapt to changing climate and persist where future climates differ from their current optimum. Here, we provide a first macroecological generalization to the approach of evolutionary rescue, by comparing the expected shift in mean temperature within the geographic range of 7193 species of amphibians worldwide, under alternative warming scenarios. Expected evolutionary change is expressed in units of standard deviations of mean temperature, per generation (Haldanes) and compared with theoretical models defining the maximum sustainable evolutionary rates (MSER) for each species. For the pessimistic emission scenario RCP8.5, shifts in mean temperature vary between near-zero and 6°C within the geographic ranges for most species, with a median equal to 3.75°C. The probability of evolutionary rescue in temperature peaks is higher than 0.05 for about 55% of the species and higher than 0.95 for only 12% of the species. Therefore, the predicted shift in mean temperature would be too extreme to deal with for almost half of the species. When evolutionary plasticity is incorporated, this scenario becomes more optimistic, with about 44% of the species being likely to shift their thermal peaks tracking future warming. These figures are not random in geographical space: evolutionary rescue would be unlikely in the tropics, especially in South America (Amazonia), parts of Africa, Indonesia, and in the Mediterranean region. Given the uncertainty in demographic and genetic parameters for species’ responses to climate change, we caution that it remains difficult to assess the realism of the macroecological generalization. In any case, it may be precautionary to assume that our results are not liberal, showing low probability of adaptation for most of the species and thus that the persistence of populations by evolutionary rescue may, in general, be unlikely in the long term.

By the end of this century, human-induced climate change and habitat loss may drastically reduce biodiversity, with expected effects on many amphibian lineages. One of these effects is the shift in the geographic distributions of species when tracking suitable climates. Here, we employ a macroecological approach to dynamically model geographic range shifts by coupling ecological niche models and eco-evolutionary mechanisms, aiming to assess the probability of evolutionary rescue (i.e., rapid adaptation) and dispersal under climate change. Evolutionary models estimated the probability of population persistence by adapting to changes in the temperature influenced by precipitation in the following decades, while compensating the fitness reduction and maintaining viable populations in the new climates. In addition, we evaluated emerging patterns of species richness and turnover at the assemblage level. Our approach was able to identify which amphibian populations among 7,193 species at the global scale could adapt to temperature changes or disperse into suitable regions in the future. Without evolutionary adaptation and dispersal, 47.7% of the species could go extinct until the year 2,100, whereas adding both processes will slightly decrease this extinction rate to 36.5%. Although adaptation to climate is possible for populations in about 25.7% of species, evolutionary rescue is the only possibility to avoid extinction in 4.2% of them. Dispersal will allow geographic range shifts for 49.7% of species, but only 6.5% may avoid extinction by reaching climatically suitable environments. This reconfiguration of species distributions and their persistence creates new assemblage-level patterns at the local scale. Temporal beta-diversity across the globe showed relatively low levels of species turnover, mainly due to the loss of species. Despite limitations with obtaining data, our approach provides more realistic assessments of species responses to ongoing climate changes. It shows that, although dispersal and evolutionary rescue may attenuate species losses, they are not enough to avoid a significant reduction of species’ geographic ranges in the future. Actions that guarantee a higher potential of adaptation (e.g., genetic diversity through larger population sizes) and increased connectivity for species dispersion to track suitable climates become essential, increasing the resilience of biodiversity to climate change.

The transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator's trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outcome of natural selection depends on the demographic processes of birth, death, and development. Here, we derive conditions for protected polymorphism in a population characterized by age- or stage-dependent demography with two sexes. We do so using a novel two-sex matrix population model including basic Mendelian genetics (one locus, two alleles, random mating). Selection may operate on survival, growth, or fertility, any or all of which may differ between the sexes. The model can therefore incorporate genes with arbitrary pleiotropic and sex-specific effects. Conditions for protected polymorphism are expressed in terms of the eigenvalues of the linearization of the model at the homozygote boundary equilibria. We show that in the absence of sexual dimorphism, polymorphism requires heterozygote superiority in the genotypic population growth rate. In the presence of sexual dimorphism, however, heterozygote superiority is not required; an inferior heterozygote may invade, reducing the population growth rate and even leading to extinction (so-called evolutionary suicide). Our model makes no assumptions about separation of time scales between ecological and evolutionary processes, and can thus be used to project sex × stage × genotype dynamics of eco-evolutionary processes. Empirical evidence that sexual dimorphism affects extinction risk is growing, yet sex differences are often ignored in evolutionary demography and in eco-evolutionary models. Our analysis highlights the importance of sexual dimorphism and suggests mechanisms by which an allele can be favored by selection, yet drive a population to extinction, as a result of the structure and interdependence of sex- and stage-specific processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes how partial selfing in a large source population influences its ability to colonize a new habitat via the introduction of a few founder individuals. Founders experience inbreeding depression due to partially recessive deleterious alleles as well as maladaptation to the new environment due to selection on a large number of additive loci. I first introduce a simplified version of the inbreeding history model to characterize mutation‐selection balance in a large, partially selfing source population under selection involving multiple nonidentical loci. I then use individual‐based simulations to study the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of founders establishing in the new habitat under a model of hard selection. The study explores how selfing rate shapes establishment probabilities of founders via effects on both inbreeding depression and adaptability to the new environment, and also distinguishes the effects of selfing on the initial fitness of founders from its effects on the long‐term adaptive response of the populations they found. A high rate of (but not complete) selfing is found to aid establishment over a wide range of parameters, even in the absence of mate limitation. The sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the nature of polygenic selection is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population‐level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the adaptive potential (based on genetic adaptations, phenotypic plasticity and behavioral adjustments for physiological responses) of local populations has been a less studied mechanism affecting species' responses to climatic change so far. Here, we discuss and apply an alternative macroecological framework to evaluate the potential role of evolutionary rescue under climate change based on ENMs. We begin by reviewing eco‐evolutionary models that evaluate the maximum sustainable evolutionary rate under a scenario of environmental change, showing how they can be used to understand the impact of temperature change on a Neotropical anuran species, the Schneider's toad Rhinella diptycha. Then we show how to evaluate spatial patterns of species' geographic range shift using such models, by estimating evolutionary rates at the trailing edge of species distribution estimated by ENMs and by recalculating the relative amount of total range loss under climate change. We show how different models can reduce the expected range loss predicted for the studied species by potential ecophysiological adaptations in some regions of the trailing edge predicted by ENMs. For general applications, we believe that parameters for large numbers of species and populations can be obtained from macroecological generalizations (e.g. allometric equations and ecogeographical rules), so our framework coupling ENMs with eco‐evolutionary models can be applied to achieve a more accurate picture of potential impacts from climate change and other threats to biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: Dispersal is a process of central importance for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations and communities, because of its diverse consequences for gene flow and demography. It is subject to evolutionary change, which begs the question, what is the genetic basis of this potentially complex trait? To address this question, we (i) review the empirical literature on the genetic basis of dispersal, (ii) explore how theoretical investigations of the evolution of dispersal have represented the genetics of dispersal, and (iii) discuss how the genetic basis of dispersal influences theoretical predictions of the evolution of dispersal and potential consequences. Dispersal has a detectable genetic basis in many organisms, from bacteria to plants and animals. Generally, there is evidence for significant genetic variation for dispersal or dispersal‐related phenotypes or evidence for the micro‐evolution of dispersal in natural populations. Dispersal is typically the outcome of several interacting traits, and this complexity is reflected in its genetic architecture: while some genes of moderate to large effect can influence certain aspects of dispersal, dispersal traits are typically polygenic. Correlations among dispersal traits as well as between dispersal traits and other traits under selection are common, and the genetic basis of dispersal can be highly environment‐dependent. By contrast, models have historically considered a highly simplified genetic architecture of dispersal. It is only recently that models have started to consider multiple loci influencing dispersal, as well as non‐additive effects such as dominance and epistasis, showing that the genetic basis of dispersal can influence evolutionary rates and outcomes, especially under non‐equilibrium conditions. For example, the number of loci controlling dispersal can influence projected rates of dispersal evolution during range shifts and corresponding demographic impacts. Incorporating more realism in the genetic architecture of dispersal is thus necessary to enable models to move beyond the purely theoretical towards making more useful predictions of evolutionary and ecological dynamics under current and future environmental conditions. To inform these advances, empirical studies need to answer outstanding questions concerning whether specific genes underlie dispersal variation, the genetic architecture of context‐dependent dispersal phenotypes and behaviours, and correlations among dispersal and other traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Laboratory model systems and mathematical models have shed considerable light on the fundamental properties and processes of evolutionary rescue. But it remains to determine the extent to which these model-based findings can help biologists predict when evolution will fail or succeed in rescuing natural populations that are facing novel conditions that threaten their persistence. In this article, we present a prospectus for transferring our basic understanding of evolutionary rescue to wild and other non-laboratory populations. Current experimental and theoretical results emphasize how the interplay between inheritance processes and absolute fitness in changed environments drive population dynamics and determine prospects of extinction. We discuss the challenge of inferring these elements of the evolutionary rescue process in field and natural settings. Addressing this challenge will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of population persistence that combines processes of evolutionary rescue with developmental and ecological mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We develop an eco-evolutionary model combining niche and neutral traits. • Stochasticity induces a coupling between neutral and niche traits. • There is a critical range of mutations rate where species emerge. • Species emerge as clusters in the niche-neutral space. The evolutionary and ecological processes behind the origin of species are among the most fundamental problems in biology. In fact, many theoretical hypothesis on different type of speciation have been proposed. In particular, models of sympatric speciation leading to the formation of new species without geographical isolation, are based on the niche hypothesis: the diversification of the population is induced by the competition for a limited set of available resources. Interestingly, neutral models of evolution have shown that stochastic forces are sufficient to generate coexistence of different species. In this work, we put forward this dichotomy within the context of species formation, studying how neutral and niche forces contribute to sympatric speciation in a model ecosystem. In particular, we study the evolution of a population of individuals with asexual reproduction whose inherited characters or phenotypes are specified by both niche-based and neutral traits. We analyze the stationary state of the dynamics, and study the distribution of individuals in the whole phenotypic space. We show, both numerically and analytically, that there is a non-trivial coupling between neutral and niche forces induced by stochastic effects in the evolution of the population allowing the formation of clusters, that is, species in the phenotypic space. Remarkably, our framework can be generalized also to sexual reproduction or other type of population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]