1. Enhanced Tidal Sensitivity of Seismicity Before the 2019 Magnitude 7.1 Ridgecrest, California Earthquake.
- Author
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Beaucé, Eric, Poli, Piero, Waldhauser, Felix, Holtzman, Benjamin, and Scholz, Christopher
- Subjects
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EARTHQUAKES , *EARTHQUAKE aftershocks , *EARTHQUAKE magnitude , *EARTH tides , *PALEOSEISMOLOGY , *SEISMIC response , *STRAINS & stresses (Mechanics) , *ATMOSPHERIC pressure - Abstract
Earth's crust is continuously subjected to oscillatory stress perturbations due to the solid Earth and ocean tides. The seismic response to such stress modulations carries information on earthquake physics and crustal properties. Experimental and observational studies suggested but could not demonstrate that the strength of tidal modulation of seismicity increases before large earthquakes. We tested this hypothesis by (a) developing a new, comprehensive 10‐year long earthquake catalog preceding the 6 July 2019 magnitude 7.1 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake, and (b) applied our novel method for extracting a statistical signal of tidal modulation. Our results show enhanced tidal sensitivity of seismicity along the fault starting about 1.5 years before the mainshock, corroborating the hypothesis. This observation suggests that small magnitude earthquakes may be used to gain insight into subtle changes in fault conditions, bringing new promise for studying the earthquake preparation process. Plain Language Summary: The solid Earth experiences tides, like the ocean, it deforms under the gravitational attraction of the Sun and Moon. This deformation induces an oscillatory stress change in the crust with small peak‐to‐peak amplitudes of the order of 1 kPa (about 1% of the atmospheric pressure). Tidal stresses weakly influence the rate of earthquake occurrence and the characteristics of this modulation carry information on earthquake physics and crustal properties. On the basis of experimental and field observation studies, it has been proposed that the modulation of seismicity by the tides increases before a large earthquake. We tested this hypothesis by analyzing 10 years of seismicity before the M7.1 2019 Ridgecrest, CA earthquake. We first built a new, comprehensive earthquake catalog with our automated method and used our novel method to extract the signal of tidal modulation throughout the study period. We found that seismicity became strongly modulated by the tides about 2 years before the mainshock, thus corroborating the hypothesis. Key Points: Seismicity in the Ridgecrest area is modulated by the solid Earth tidesPeak seismicity occurs when tidal Coulomb stress or stress rate favors ruptureStrength of tidal triggering is gradually increasing in the rupture area about 2 years before the Mw 7.1 2019 mainshock [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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