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IEEE International Conference on Big Data, We describe an approach using dynamic topic modeling to model influence and predict future trends in a scientific discipline. Our study focuses on climate change and uses assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the papers they cite. Since 1990, an IPCC report has been published every five years that includes four separate volumes, each of which has many chapters. Each report cites tens of thousands of research papers, which comprise a correlated dataset of temporally grounded documents. We use a custom dynamic topic modeling algorithm to generate topics for both datasets and apply crossdomain analytics to identify the correlations between the IPCC chapters and their cited documents. The approach reveals both the influence of the cited research on the reports and how previous research citations have evolved over time. For the IPCC use case, the report topic model used 410 documents and a vocabulary of 5911 terms while the citations topic model was based on 200K research papers and a vocabulary more than 25K terms. We show that our approach can predict the importance of its extracted topics on future IPCC assessments through the use of cross domain correlations, Jensen-Shannon divergences and cluster analytics.

Big Data Challenges, Research, and Technologies in the Earth and Planetary Sciences Workshop, IEEE Int. Conf. on Big Data, A common Big Data problem is the need to integrate large temporal data sets from various data sources into one comprehensive structure. Having the ability to correlate evolving facts between data sources can be especially useful in supporting a number of desired application functions such as inference and influence identification. As a real world application we use climate change publications based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which publishes climate change assessment reports every five years, with currently over 25 years of published content. Often these reports reference thousands of research papers. We use dynamic topic modeling as a basis for combining report and citation domains into one structure. We are able to correlate documents between the two domains to understand how the research has influenced the reports and how this influence has changed over time. In this use case, the topic report model used a total number of 410 documents and 5911 terms in the vocabulary while in the topic citations the vocabulary consisted of 25,154 terms and the number of documents was closer to 200,000 research papers.