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BACKGROUND: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. METHODS: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. FINDINGS: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]). INTERPRETATION: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimates distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. FINDINGS: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). INTERPRETATION: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Objectives: This study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet low in fiber among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Methods: We extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect). Results: From 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates attributable to low dietary fiber intake decreased by 2.37% per year, while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) fell by 2.48% annually. Decreases were observed across all sociodemographic index regions, with fastest declines in high and high-middle SDI areas. CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to low fiber increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85–89 years, and were higher in men than women. Regarding period effects, mortality and DALY rates declined since 2000, reaching nadirs in 2015–2019. For birth cohort patterns, risks attributable to low fiber intake peaked among early 1900s births and subsequently fell, with more pronounced reductions over time in women. Conclusions: Low dietary fiber intake is a leading contributor to the global cardiovascular disease burden, accounting for substantial mortality and disability specifically among older adults over recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of air pollution on health outcomes in Middle Eastern countries, a region facing severe environmental challenges. As such, these are important in an effort to add up to policy-level as well as interventional changes that can be put in practice in the area of public health. Numeration analysis and association with health parameters was carried out by using Analytical tools such as, AIR Data, ARIMA,ANN, SVM and Exponential smoothing. Amongst the models, Support Vector Machine came again on top, with high accuracy yielding Mean Absolute Percentage Error of approximately 1%. Mortality of Air pollution in Qat from the case of Mortality of Air Pollution in Qatar is 959 while Auto regressive Integrated Moving average is 11.096, Exponential Smoothing 9.892 and Artificial Neural Networks are the source of inspiration for the development of this paper 4.61. The above perceptions indicate that there is need to adapt modeling strategies depending on the context and establish that it is possible to implement ML models in public health planning basket. This paper publishes the methodological frameworks for the purpose of modeling and analysis of the EHDs and serves as policy prescription for the policy makers to intending to reduce the effects of air borne pollution on health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Materials and Methods Results Conclusions Elevated body mass index (BMI) presents a significant public health challenge in the United States, contributing to considerable morbidity, mortality and economic burden. This study investigates the health burden of overweight and obesity in the United States from 1990 to 2021, leveraging the Global Burden of Disease data set to analyse trends, disparities and potential determinants of high BMI‐related health outcomes.Our study focused on the United States, analysing trends in disability‐adjusted life years (DALY) and deaths attributable to high BMI, defined as a BMI of 25 kg/m2 or higher for adults. Statistical analyses included estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in age‐standardized DALY rates and age‐standardized death rates. Pearson correlation was performed between EAPCs and the socio‐demographic index (SDI), with significance set at p < 0.05.From 1990 to 2021, age‐standardized DALY rates attributable to high BMI increased by 24.9%, whereas the age‐standardized death rates increased by 5.2%. Age disparities showed DALYs peaking at 60–64 years for males and 65–69 years for females, with deaths peaking at 65–69 years for males and 90–94 years for females. A strong negative correlation was found between the EAPC in age‐standardized DALY and death rates and the SDI.Overweight and obesity significantly impact public health in the United States, especially among older adults and lower socio‐demographic regions. Comprehensive public health strategies integrating behavioural, technological and environmental interventions are crucial. Future research should focus on longitudinal studies, personalized interventions and policy‐driven approaches to address the multifaceted influences on high BMI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Initiatives aiming to assess the impact of rare diseases on population health might be hampered due to the complexity of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) estimation. This study aimed to give insight into the epidemiological data sources and methodological approaches used in studies that estimated DALYs for chronic non-communicable rare diseases (CNCRD), and compare its results. Methods: A literature strategy was developed for peer-review search in Embase and Medline, and also performed on grey literature databases and population health and/or rare disease-focused websites. We included studies that determined the burden of CNCRD listed on the Orphanet's and/or the Genetic and Rare Diseases information center (GARD) websites. We excluded communicable and occupational diseases, rare cancers, and cost-effectiveness/benefit studies. Two researchers independently screened the identified records and extracted data from the final included studies. We used the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) statement to assess the quality of reporting of the included studies. The data synthesis depicted the studies' characteristics, their distribution by geographic coverage and the group of disease(s) they focused on, the methods and data input sources used and estimated DALY per case. Results: In total, 533 titles were screened, and 18 studies were included. These studies covered 19 different CNCRDs, of which most fell in the disease category "Diseases of the nervous system". Diverse methodological approaches and data input sources were observed among burden of CNCRD studies. A wide range of DALY per case was observed across the different studies and diseases included. Conclusions: A low number of burden of CNCRD studies was observed and most estimates resulted from multi-country studies, underlining the importance of international cooperation to further CNCRD research. This study revealed a lack of epidemiological data and harmonization of methods which hampers comparisons across burden of CNCRD studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Backgrounds: The study aimed to estimate bladder cancer burden and its attributable risk factors in China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea and Mongolia from 1990 to 2019, to discuss the potential causes of the disparities. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated by Joinpoint analysis, and the independent age, period and cohort effects were estimated by age-period-cohort analysis. Results: In 2019, the highest incidence (7.70 per 100,000) and prevalence (51.09 per 100,000) rates of bladder cancer were in Japan, while the highest mortality (2.31 per 100,000) and DALY rates (41.88 per 100,000) were in South Korea and China, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates increased in China, Japan and South Korea (AAPC > 0) and decreased in Mongolia (AAPC < 0), while mortality and DALY rates decreased in all five countries (AAPC < 0). Age effects showed increasing trends for incidence, mortality and DALY rates, while the prevalence rates increased first and then decreased in older groups. The cohort effects showed downward trends from 1914–1918 to 2004–2008. Smoking was the greatest contributor and males had the higher burden than females. Conclusion: Bladder cancer was still a major public health problem in East Asia. Male and older population suffered from higher risk, and smoking played an important role. It is recommended that more efficient preventions and interventions should be operated among high-risk populations, thereby reduce bladder cancer burden in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study examines global trends in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, focusing on regional disparities in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across various levels of socio-demographic index (SDI). It also investigates variations in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across different age groups, and projects specific trends for the next 25 years. Methods: Comprehensive data on AIDS from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories was obtained from a GBD study. This included information on AIDS incidence, mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Projections for AIDS incidence and mortality over the next 25 years were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence of HIV cases increased from 1,989,282 to 2,057,710, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 37.59 to 25.24 with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -2.38. The ASIR exhibited an upward trend in high SDI and high-middle SDI regions, a stable trend in middle SDI regions, and a downward trend in low-middle SDI and low SDI regions. In regions with higher SDI, the ASIR was higher in males than in females, while the opposite was observed in lower SDI regions. Throughout 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate remained stable, with EAPCs of 0.24 and 0.08 respectively. Countries with the highest HIV burden affecting women and children under five years of age are primarily situated in lower SDI regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections indicate a significant continued decline in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of AIDS over the next 25 years, for both overall and by gender. Conclusions: The global ASIR decreased from 1990 to 2019. Higher incidence and death rates were observed in the lower SDI region, indicating a greater susceptibility to AIDS among women and < 15 years old. This underscores the urgent need for increased resources to combat AIDS in this region, with focused attention on protecting women and < 15 years old as priority groups. The AIDS epidemic remained severe in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections for the next 25 years indicate a substantial and ongoing decline in both age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Out of the 21 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) listed by the World Health Organization, 15 affect the People's Republic of China. Despite significant achievements in controlling NTDs, comprehensive assessments of the disease burden based on actual case data and detailed information on spatial and temporal dynamics are still lacking. This study aims to assess the disease burden and spatial–temporal distribution of NTDs in China from 2005 to 2020, to provide a reference for the formulation of national health agendas in line with the global health agenda, and guide resource allocation. Methods: The number of cases and deaths of major NTDs in China from 2005 to 2020 were downloaded from the China Public Health Science Data Center (https://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share/index.jsp) of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and relevant literatures. Simplified formulas for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) helped estimate the years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and total DALYs. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of the average NTDs burden data for the years 2005 to 2020 was evaluated using Moran's I statistic. Results: China's overall NTDs burden decreased significantly, from 245,444.53 DALYs in 2005 to 18,984.34 DALYs in 2020, marking a reduction of 92.27%. In 2005, the DALYs caused by schistosomiasis and rabies represent a substantial proportion of the total disease burden, accounting for 65.37% and 34.43% respectively. In 2015, Hunan and Sichuan provinces had the highest diversity of NTDs, with 9 and 8 number of different NTDs reported respectively. And the highest disease burden was observed in Sichuan (242,683.46 DALYs), Xizang Zizhiqu (178,318.99 DALYs) and Guangdong (154,228.31 DALYs). The "high-high" clustering areas of NTDs were mainly in China's central and southern regions, as identified by spatial autocorrelation analysis. Conclusions: China has made unremitting efforts in the prevention and control of NTDs, and the disease burden of major NTDs in China has decreased significantly. Using the One Health concept to guide disease prevention and control in the field to effectively save medical resources and achieve precise intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, cancer is the second leading cause of death, with a growing burden also observed in Kazakhstan. This study evaluates the burden of common cancers in Almaty, Kazakhstan's major city, from 2017 to 2021, utilizing data from the Information System of the Ministry of Health. In Kazakhstan, most common cancers among men include lung, stomach, and prostate cancer, while breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers are predominant among women. Employing measures like disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), we found that selected cancer types accounted for a total DALY burden of 25,016.60 in 2021, with mortality contributing more than disability (95.2% vs. 4.7%) with the ratio of non-fatal to fatal outcomes being 1.4 times higher in women than in men. The share of non-fatal burden (YLD) proportion within DALYs increased for almost all selected cancer types, except stomach and cervical cancer over the observed period in Almaty. Despite the overall increase in cancer burden observed during the time period, a downward trend in specific cancers suggests the efficacy of implemented cancer control strategies. Comparison with global trends highlights the significance of targeted interventions. This analysis underscores the need for continuous comprehensive cancer control strategies in Almaty and Kazakhstan, including vaccination against human papillomavirus, stomach cancer screening programs, and increased cancer awareness initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Objective Methods Results Conclusion Adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) pose significant risks to paediatric patients. However, the mortality trends associated with AEMT in this population have been unclear.We aimed to clarify the trends in the incidence, disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates of AEMT for children in the US from 2000 to 2019.Data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. We estimated age‐standardized incidence, DALYs and mortality rates of paediatric AEMT per 100,000 children in the US using a Bayesian meta‐regression model. We also analysed incidence, DALYs and mortality in different age groups, and employed Joinpoint regression models to assess the age‐ and sex‐specific trends.The number of deaths due to AEMT in children, the number of cases, and DALYs were 105.1, 551,076 and 145,555 in 2019, decreased by 37.5%, 6% and 28% from those in 2000, respectively. Age‐standardized mortality rates decreased across all age groups, while the incidence increased across all age groups with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 2.2% in those children <1 year and 4.5% in 5–9 years of age. The increases in DALYs over time was higher in children aged 1–4 years (AAPC: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.62) and 5–9 years (AAPC: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.50), with the 1–4 year age group being the highest.The study reveals declining AEMT mortality but rising incidence and DALYs, emphasizing a disproportionate burden in <1, 1–4 and 5–9 years. To develop effective mitigation strategies, future research is warranted to identify the causes of increased AEMT in children, especially young males. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Leukemia is the tenth most common cause of cancer death worldwide and one of the most important causes of disability. To understand the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of leukemia at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of leukemia prevention and treatment strategies. Methods: Based on open data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), R software was used to calculate estimated annual percentage changes to estimate trends in the age‐standardized incidence (ASIR) and the age‐standardized disability‐adjusted life years (DALY) rate due to leukemia and its major subtypes from 1990 to 2019. Results: In 2019, globally, the number of incidences and DALYs of leukemia were 643.6 × 103 (587.0 × 103, 699.7 × 103) and 11,657.5 × 103 (10529.1 × 103, 12700.7 × 103), respectively. The ASIR (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = −0.37, 95%UI −0.46 to −0.28) and the age‐standardized DALY rate (EAPC = −1.72, 95%UI −1.80 to −1.65) of leukemia showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of leukemia risk was a "U"‐shaped distribution of relative risk (RR) with increasing age from 1990 to 2019, globally. The time effect was an increase in incidence rate with increasing years but a decrease in DALY rate with increasing years. The cohort effects of both incidence and DALY rates tended to increase and then decrease with the development of the birth cohort. In 1990 and 2019, smoking, high body‐mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and occupational exposure to formaldehyde were risk factors for DALY in leukemia, especially in areas with high SDI. Conclusions: From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of leukemia showed a decreasing trend, but it is worth noting that its overall severity is still very high. The disease burden of leukemia varies greatly from region to region, and exclusive strategies for the prevention and treatment of leukemia should be developed according to the economic and cultural development of each region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Unsafe sex is recognized as an important risk factor for cervical cancer (CC). Understanding the global disease burden of CC attributable to unsafe sex can assist policymakers in allocating healthcare resources. Methods: Data were obtained from the 2019 global burden of disease database (GBD). We examined global, regional, and national levels of CC mortality, disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs), and age‐standardized rates (ASRs) caused by unsafe sex. ASRs were evaluated using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). Results: Attributable to unsafe sex, there were 280,479 CC‐related deaths in 2019 and 8,955,013 CC‐related DALYs. In the period 1990–2019, the global ASRs of CC due to unsafe sex decreased around the world; for age‐standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age‐standardized DALY rate (ASDR), the EAPCs were −0.93 and −0.95. The highest ASMRs and ASDRs were found in central sub‐Saharan Africa and the lowest in Australasia. Conclusion: In the past few decades, the ASMR and ASDR of CC caused by unsafe sexual practices have decreased over time, with significant variations observed among different countries and regions. Increased focus is needed on spreading awareness about sexual health and promoting CC prevention and screening, particularly in low‐ and middle‐income nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Our study aims to provide an updated estimate of age‐ and sex‐specific deaths and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with high body mass index (BMI) from 1990 to 2019 at the global, regional and national levels, and to forecast the global burden of disease attributed to high BMI from 2020 to 2035. Methods: We used the data for the number of deaths, DALYs, age‐standardized rate (per 100 000 population), percentage change and population attributable fraction from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to examine the disease burden attributable to high BMI. We further applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the disease burden for the period 2020‐2035. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the deaths and DALYs attributable to high BMI increased by 148% and 155.86% for men, and by 111.67% and 121.78% for women, respectively. In 2019, high BMI directly accounted for 8.52% [95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 0.05, 0.12] of all‐cause deaths and 5.89% (95% UI 0.04, 0.08) of global DALYs. The highest death rates were observed in men aged 65‐69 and women aged 75‐79. The highest DALY rates were observed in the age group of 60‐64 for both sexes. In 2019, the highest age‐standardized deaths and DALY rates were observed in the Central Asia region [163.15 (95% UI 107.72, 223.58) per 100 000 people] and the Oceania region [4643.33 (95% UI 2835.66, 6902.6) per 100 000 people], respectively. Fiji [319.08 (95% UI 213.77, 444.96) per 100 000 people] and Kiribati [10 000.58 (95% UI 6266.55, 14159.2) per 100 000 people] had the highest age‐standardized deaths and DALY rates, respectively. In 2019, the highest age‐standardized rates of high BMI‐related deaths and DALYs were observed in the middle‐high socio‐demographic index quintile and in the middle socio‐demographic index quintile. The age‐standardized deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI are projected to increase in both sexes from 2020 to 2035. The death rates are projected to rise from 62.79 to 64.31 per 100 000 people, while the DALY rates are projected to rise from 1946 to 2099.54 per 100 000 people. Conclusions: High BMIs significantly contribute to the global disease burden. The projected rise in deaths and DALY rates attributable to high BMI by 2035 highlights the critical need to address the impact of obesity on public health. Our study provides policymakers with up‐to‐date and comprehensive information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objective: Breast cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among women worldwide. This study aimed to assess the global burden of breast cancer and identify attributable risk factors across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors associated with breast cancer. We obtained and analyzed the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2021. We assessed geographical variations and the impact of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using regression analysis and stratification by SDI quintiles. Additionally, we estimated the risk factors attributable to breast cancer deaths and DALYs using the comparative risk assessment framework of the GBD study. Results: Globally, breast cancer incident cases increased from 875,657 in 1990 to 2,121,564 in 2021. The ASIR rose from 16.42 to 26.88 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.54–1.60). High SDI regions showed the highest ASIR (66.89 per 100,000 in 2021), while Low SDI regions had the lowest (6.99 per 100,000 in 2021). The global ASDR decreased from 10.42 to 8.54 per 100,000, and the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased from 313.36 to 261.5 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2021. However, these improvements were not uniform across SDI regions. Risk factors included high body-mass index, alcohol use, tobacco, and high fasting plasma glucose, with variations across SDI regions. Conclusion: The global burden of breast cancer has increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, with disparities observed across SDI regions. While high SDI areas show improvements in mortality and DALYs, lower SDI regions face increasing burdens. Targeted interventions addressing modifiable risk factors and improving healthcare access in less developed regions are crucial for reducing the global impact of breast cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Migraine, a widespread neurological condition, substantially affects the quality of life, particularly for adolescents and young adults. While its impact is significant, there remains a paucity of comprehensive global research on the burden of migraine in younger demographics. Our study sought to elucidate the global prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with migraine in the 15–39 age group from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Methods: Our comprehensive study analyzed migraine data from the GBD 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs across 204 countries and territories over a 32-year span. We stratified the information by age, sex, year, geographical region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). To evaluate temporal trends in these metrics, we employed the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, the worldwide prevalence of migraine among 15–39 year-olds increased substantially. By 2021, an estimated 593.8 million cases were reported, representing a 39.52% rise from 425.6 million cases in 1990. Global trends showed increases in age-standardized prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALY rate for migraine during this period. The EAPC were positive for all three metrics: 0.09 for ASPR, 0.03 for ASIR, and 0.09 for DALY rate. Regions with medium SDI reported the highest absolute numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs in 2021. However, high SDI regions demonstrated the most elevated rates overall. Across the globe, migraine prevalence peaked in the 35–39 age group. Notably, female rates consistently exceeded male rates across all age categories. Conclusion: The global impact of migraine on youths and young adults has grown considerably from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. This escalating burden necessitates targeted interventions and public health initiatives, especially in areas and populations disproportionately affected by migraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a condition in which the heart is starved of oxygen. Knowing the dietary risk factors implementing appropriate nutritional interventions in this regard seems essential. Therefore, the present study was carried out to determine the epidemiological features of IHD affected by dietary risks. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In this study, we collected information on death, years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of IHD affected by dietary risks in one hundred thousand people with 95% confidence based on the direct Age Standard Rate (ASR). We applied these data based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In 2019, the number of IHD deaths, YLDs, and DALYs attributable to dietary risks was 62.43 million (95% UI [50.97–73.63] per 100,000 population), 36.88 (95% UI [23.87–53.32] per 100,000 population), and 1271.32 (95% UI [1061.29–1473.75] per 100,000 population), respectively. We found that the lowest DALYs of IHD affected by dietary risks by ASR are for high SDI countries. Most dietary risk factors related to IHD in countries with high and high middle SDI were related to a diet high in red and processed meat, sodium, and low in legumes, but in countries with low and low middle SDI, it was related to a diet low in fiber, fruit, nuts and seeds, PUFA, seafood W3 fatty acids, vegetables and whole grain. Considering that the dietary risk factors related to IHD are different based on SDI, it is necessary to consider nutritional interventions according to SDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the global burden of esophageal cancer (EC) and determine the temporal trends and factors influencing changes in the global burden. Methods: The latest incidence and mortality data for EC worldwide were obtained from GLOBALCAN 2022. The mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates for EC from 1990--2019 were sourced from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases. Trends in EC mortality and DALYs attributable to 11 risk factors or clusters of risk were analyzed using the joinpoint regression model. The trends in age-related EC burden were assessed using a decomposition approach. Results: An estimated 511,054 new cases of EC were diagnosed in 2022 with 445,391 deaths worldwide. Approximately 75% of cases and deaths occurred in Asia. Nearly 50% of global EC deaths and DALYs were attributed to tobacco use in men in 2019, while 20% were attributed to high body mass index (BMI) in women. From 1990--2019, EC deaths and DALYs attributable to almost all risk factors had declining trends, while EC deaths and DALYs attributed to high BMI in men had upward trends. The age-related EC burden exhibited an upward trend driven by population growth and aging, which contributed to 307.4 thousand deaths and 7.2 million DALYs due to EC. Conclusions: The EC burden remains substantial worldwide. Effective tobacco and obesity control measures are critical for addressing the risk-attributable burden of EC. Population growth and aging pose challenges for EC prevention and control efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cannabis is the fourth psychoactive substance to be legalized which are of far-reaching significance to the world. We analyzed data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to estimate the incidence and prevalence of cannabis use disorder (CUD) and calculated the disease burden of CUD in 204 countries and territories and 21 regions over the past three decades. We reported disease burden due to CUD in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized rate (ASR), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and analyzed associations between the burden of CUD and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles. Globally, the number of incidence cases of CUD was estimated to be increasing by 32.3% from 1990 to 2019 and males are nearly double higher than that of female. DALYs increase 38.6% from 1990. Young people aged 20–24 years old with cannabis use disorder have the highest DALYs in 2019, followed by those younger than 20 years old. India, Canada, USA, Qatar, Kenya, and high SDI quintile areas showed a high burden of disease. Nearly 200 million individuals are cannabis users worldwide, and CUD is a notable condition of GBD. The global cultivation of cannabis, rooted in different cultures, diversified access to cannabis, legalization in controversy, the promotion of medical cannabis, and many other factors promote the global cannabis industry is constantly updated and upgraded. It deserves more discussion in the future in terms of pathophysiological mechanisms, socioeconomics, law, and policy improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Fungal skin diseases are common skin diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Objectives: This study aimed to analyse the spatiotemporal trends in the burden of fungal skin diseases at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021. Methods: Based on the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, we described the incident cases, prevalent cases, number of disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age‐standardised rates (ASRs) for fungal skin diseases in 1990 and 2021 by sex, age, socio‐demographic index (SDI), 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We used Joinpoint regression analysis to assess the temporal trends in burden of fungal skin diseases during 1990 to 2021. Spearman's rank test was used to analyse the relationship between disease burden and potential factors. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs for fungal skin diseases worldwide increased by 67.93%, 67.73%, and 66.77%, respectively. Globally, the age‐standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age‐standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), and age‐standardised DALYs rate (ASDR) for fungal skin diseases in 2021 were 21668.40 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 19601.19–23729.17), 7789.55 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 7059.28–8583.54), and 43.39 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 17.79–89.10), respectively. Between 1990 and 2021, the ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR for fungal skin diseases have modestly increased, with AAPC of 11.71% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.03%–12.39%), 19.24% (95% CI: 18.12%–20.36%), and 20.25% (95% CI: 19.33%–21.18%), respectively. Males experienced a higher burden of fungal skin diseases than females. The incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs for fungal skin diseases were highest at the age of 5–9, while the ASRs were highest among the elderly. At national level, the highest ASRs were observed in Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Mali. Overall, SDI was negatively correlated with the ASRs, whereas Global Land‐Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI) was remarkably positively correlated with the burden of fungal skin diseases. Conclusions: Between 1990 and 2021, the global burden of fungal skin diseases has increased, causing a high disease burden worldwide, particularly in underdeveloped regions and among vulnerable population such as children and the elderly. With global warming and aging of the population, the burden of fungal skin diseases may continue to increase in the future. Targeted and specific measures should be taken to address these disparities and the ongoing burden of fungal skin diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) brings heavy clinical and economic burdens to patients worldwide. High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) was proven to be an important modifiable risk factor. However, the global burden distribution of HFPG-attributable MASLD has not been fully studied. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological distribution and trends of the burden of HFPG-attributable MASLD worldwide. The data source was the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study. Descriptive statistics were mainly conducted using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths of HFPG-attributable MASLD from 1990 to 2021, as well as their age-standardized rates (ASRs) and population-attributable fractions. Subgroup analyses were conducted by region, age group, and sex. We found that 213.48 thousand DALYs and 10.02 thousand deaths in MASLD were attributable to HFPG worldwide in 2021, with an increase of 2.96 and 3.32 times compared with 1990, respectively. Over the past 32 years, age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs) have fluctuated upward, reaching 2.45 per 100,000 people in 2021, with an increase of 81.21%. The ASDRs continued to rise in low, low-middle, and high social demographic index (SDI) regions, fluctuated upward at high levels in middle SDI regions, and were relatively low in high-middle SDI regions. People aged 50–69 accounted for the largest proportion of DALYs, while people over 70 had the largest increase of 3.73 times. Men had higher ASDRs, and the sex difference has been gradually expanding over the past 32 years, peaking at the age of 45–49. In conclusion, the burden of HFPG-attributable MASLD has continued to increase globally, with differences in geographical area, age, and sex distribution. HFPG, as a modifiable risk factor, should be given more importance. The implementation of targeted health intervention strategies is recommended for each country based on trends in the burden of HFPG-attributable MASLD.

Abstract Objectives This study aimed to quantify the global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden attributable to diet low in fiber among adults aged 60 years and older using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Methods We extracted data on CVD mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and risk-factor exposures from the GBD 2019 study for people aged 60 and older. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the overall annual percentage change in mortality and DALY rate (net drift, % per year), mortality and DALY rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), longitudinal age-specific rate corrected for period bias (age effect), and mortality and Daly rate for each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year). And period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect). Results From 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates attributable to low dietary fiber intake decreased by 2.37% per year, while disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) fell by 2.48% annually. Decreases were observed across all sociodemographic index regions, with fastest declines in high and high-middle SDI areas. CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to low fiber increased exponentially with age, peaking at 85–89 years, and were higher in men than women. Regarding period effects, mortality and DALY rates declined since 2000, reaching nadirs in 2015–2019. For birth cohort patterns, risks attributable to low fiber intake peaked among early 1900s births and subsequently fell, with more pronounced reductions over time in women. Conclusions Low dietary fiber intake is a leading contributor to the global cardiovascular disease burden, accounting for substantial mortality and disability specifically among older adults over recent decades.

Abstract Background Initiatives aiming to assess the impact of rare diseases on population health might be hampered due to the complexity of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) estimation. This study aimed to give insight into the epidemiological data sources and methodological approaches used in studies that estimated DALYs for chronic non-communicable rare diseases (CNCRD), and compare its results. Methods A literature strategy was developed for peer-review search in Embase and Medline, and also performed on grey literature databases and population health and/or rare disease-focused websites. We included studies that determined the burden of CNCRD listed on the Orphanet’s and/or the Genetic and Rare Diseases information center (GARD) websites. We excluded communicable and occupational diseases, rare cancers, and cost-effectiveness/benefit studies. Two researchers independently screened the identified records and extracted data from the final included studies. We used the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) statement to assess the quality of reporting of the included studies. The data synthesis depicted the studies’ characteristics, their distribution by geographic coverage and the group of disease(s) they focused on, the methods and data input sources used and estimated DALY per case. Results In total, 533 titles were screened, and 18 studies were included. These studies covered 19 different CNCRDs, of which most fell in the disease category “Diseases of the nervous system”. Diverse methodological approaches and data input sources were observed among burden of CNCRD studies. A wide range of DALY per case was observed across the different studies and diseases included. Conclusions A low number of burden of CNCRD studies was observed and most estimates resulted from multi-country studies, underlining the importance of international cooperation to further CNCRD research. This study revealed a lack of epidemiological data and harmonization of methods which hampers comparisons across burden of CNCRD studies.

Abstract Globally, cancer is the second leading cause of death, with a growing burden also observed in Kazakhstan. This study evaluates the burden of common cancers in Almaty, Kazakhstan's major city, from 2017 to 2021, utilizing data from the Information System of the Ministry of Health. In Kazakhstan, most common cancers among men include lung, stomach, and prostate cancer, while breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers are predominant among women. Employing measures like disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), we found that selected cancer types accounted for a total DALY burden of 25,016.60 in 2021, with mortality contributing more than disability (95.2% vs. 4.7%) with the ratio of non-fatal to fatal outcomes being 1.4 times higher in women than in men. The share of non-fatal burden (YLD) proportion within DALYs increased for almost all selected cancer types, except stomach and cervical cancer over the observed period in Almaty. Despite the overall increase in cancer burden observed during the time period, a downward trend in specific cancers suggests the efficacy of implemented cancer control strategies. Comparison with global trends highlights the significance of targeted interventions. This analysis underscores the need for continuous comprehensive cancer control strategies in Almaty and Kazakhstan, including vaccination against human papillomavirus, stomach cancer screening programs, and increased cancer awareness initiatives.

Abstract Backgrounds The study aimed to estimate bladder cancer burden and its attributable risk factors in China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea and Mongolia from 1990 to 2019, to discuss the potential causes of the disparities. Methods Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were calculated by Joinpoint analysis, and the independent age, period and cohort effects were estimated by age-period-cohort analysis. Results In 2019, the highest incidence (7.70 per 100,000) and prevalence (51.09 per 100,000) rates of bladder cancer were in Japan, while the highest mortality (2.31 per 100,000) and DALY rates (41.88 per 100,000) were in South Korea and China, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates increased in China, Japan and South Korea (AAPC > 0) and decreased in Mongolia (AAPC

Abstract Background This study examines global trends in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, focusing on regional disparities in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across various levels of socio-demographic index (SDI). It also investigates variations in AIDS incidence, mortality, and DALYs across different age groups, and projects specific trends for the next 25 years. Methods Comprehensive data on AIDS from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories was obtained from a GBD study. This included information on AIDS incidence, mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Projections for AIDS incidence and mortality over the next 25 years were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence of HIV cases increased from 1,989,282 to 2,057,710, while the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) decreased from 37.59 to 25.24 with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -2.38. The ASIR exhibited an upward trend in high SDI and high-middle SDI regions, a stable trend in middle SDI regions, and a downward trend in low-middle SDI and low SDI regions. In regions with higher SDI, the ASIR was higher in males than in females, while the opposite was observed in lower SDI regions. Throughout 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate remained stable, with EAPCs of 0.24 and 0.08 respectively. Countries with the highest HIV burden affecting women and children under five years of age are primarily situated in lower SDI regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Projections indicate a significant continued decline in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of AIDS over the next 25 years, for both overall and by gender. Conclusions The global ASIR decreased from 1990 to 2019. Higher incidence and death rates were observed in the lower SDI region, indicating a greater susceptibility to AIDS among women and

Abstract Background Out of the 21 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) listed by the World Health Organization, 15 affect the People’s Republic of China. Despite significant achievements in controlling NTDs, comprehensive assessments of the disease burden based on actual case data and detailed information on spatial and temporal dynamics are still lacking. This study aims to assess the disease burden and spatial–temporal distribution of NTDs in China from 2005 to 2020, to provide a reference for the formulation of national health agendas in line with the global health agenda, and guide resource allocation. Methods The number of cases and deaths of major NTDs in China from 2005 to 2020 were downloaded from the China Public Health Science Data Center ( https://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share/index.jsp ) of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and relevant literatures. Simplified formulas for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) helped estimate the years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and total DALYs. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of the average NTDs burden data for the years 2005 to 2020 was evaluated using Moran's I statistic. Results China's overall NTDs burden decreased significantly, from 245,444.53 DALYs in 2005 to 18,984.34 DALYs in 2020, marking a reduction of 92.27%. In 2005, the DALYs caused by schistosomiasis and rabies represent a substantial proportion of the total disease burden, accounting for 65.37% and 34.43% respectively. In 2015, Hunan and Sichuan provinces had the highest diversity of NTDs, with 9 and 8 number of different NTDs reported respectively. And the highest disease burden was observed in Sichuan (242,683.46 DALYs), Xizang Zizhiqu (178,318.99 DALYs) and Guangdong (154,228.31 DALYs). The “high-high” clustering areas of NTDs were mainly in China's central and southern regions, as identified by spatial autocorrelation analysis. Conclusions China has made unremitting efforts in the prevention and control of NTDs, and the disease burden of major NTDs in China has decreased significantly. Using the One Health concept to guide disease prevention and control in the field to effectively save medical resources and achieve precise intervention. Graphical abstract

Objective: To analyze the impact of global population aging on cancer epidemiology, with a focus on the incidence and mortality rates among individuals aged 60 years and above. Methods: We utilized open-source data, retrieving population age estimates from the United Nations Population Division website. The GLOBOCAN 2020 database provided estimates for cancer cases and deaths in 2020 and 2040, while the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database supplied estimates of new cancer cases worldwide from 2000 to 2019. Inclusion criteria considered individuals aged 60 years and over, focusing on the top five deadliest cancers. The cohort-component method was employed for population prediction, with age-specific incidence and mortality rates estimated for 2020 used to forecast the cancer burden. Results: In 2021, the global population aged over 60 years accounted for 13.7%, with Europe/North America and Australia/New Zealand having the highest proportions. The older population is predicted to reach 19.2% by 2040. In 2020, of the 19.3 million new cancer cases worldwide, 64% occurred in individuals aged 60 and above, contributing to 71.3% of cancer-related deaths. The five most common cancer sites were the lung, colorectum, prostate, breast, and stomach. Cancer incidence and deaths are projected to rise significantly among older individuals, reaching 20.7 million new cases and 12.7 million deaths by 2040. Older age, tobacco use, dietary factors, alcohol consumption, and high body mass index (BMI) were identified as major risk factors for various cancers in this demographic. Conclusions: This study reveals a significant rise in cancer incidence and mortality among the elderly due to global population aging. The urgency for targeted interventions in cancer prevention, screening, and treatment for older individuals is emphasized. Despite acknowledged limitations, these findings contribute valuable insights to inform strategies for managing cancer in the elderly amidst evolving demographic trends.

Abstract Background and objective Breast cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among women worldwide. This study aimed to assess the global burden of breast cancer and identify attributable risk factors across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors associated with breast cancer. We obtained and analyzed the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate from 1990 to 2021. We assessed geographical variations and the impact of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using regression analysis and stratification by SDI quintiles. Additionally, we estimated the risk factors attributable to breast cancer deaths and DALYs using the comparative risk assessment framework of the GBD study. Results Globally, breast cancer incident cases increased from 875,657 in 1990 to 2,121,564 in 2021. The ASIR rose from 16.42 to 26.88 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.54–1.60). High SDI regions showed the highest ASIR (66.89 per 100,000 in 2021), while Low SDI regions had the lowest (6.99 per 100,000 in 2021). The global ASDR decreased from 10.42 to 8.54 per 100,000, and the age-standardized DALYs rate decreased from 313.36 to 261.5 per 100,000 between 1990 and 2021. However, these improvements were not uniform across SDI regions. Risk factors included high body-mass index, alcohol use, tobacco, and high fasting plasma glucose, with variations across SDI regions. Conclusion The global burden of breast cancer has increased significantly from 1990 to 2021, with disparities observed across SDI regions. While high SDI areas show improvements in mortality and DALYs, lower SDI regions face increasing burdens. Targeted interventions addressing modifiable risk factors and improving healthcare access in less developed regions are crucial for reducing the global impact of breast cancer.

Abstract Background Migraine, a widespread neurological condition, substantially affects the quality of life, particularly for adolescents and young adults. While its impact is significant, there remains a paucity of comprehensive global research on the burden of migraine in younger demographics. Our study sought to elucidate the global prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with migraine in the 15–39 age group from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. Methods Our comprehensive study analyzed migraine data from the GBD 2021 report, examining the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs across 204 countries and territories over a 32-year span. We stratified the information by age, sex, year, geographical region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). To evaluate temporal trends in these metrics, we employed the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculation. Results Between 1990 and 2021, the worldwide prevalence of migraine among 15–39 year-olds increased substantially. By 2021, an estimated 593.8 million cases were reported, representing a 39.52% rise from 425.6 million cases in 1990. Global trends showed increases in age-standardized prevalence rate, incidence rate, and DALY rate for migraine during this period. The EAPC were positive for all three metrics: 0.09 for ASPR, 0.03 for ASIR, and 0.09 for DALY rate. Regions with medium SDI reported the highest absolute numbers of prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs in 2021. However, high SDI regions demonstrated the most elevated rates overall. Across the globe, migraine prevalence peaked in the 35–39 age group. Notably, female rates consistently exceeded male rates across all age categories. Conclusion The global impact of migraine on youths and young adults has grown considerably from 1990 to 2021, revealing notable variations across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and sexes. This escalating burden necessitates targeted interventions and public health initiatives, especially in areas and populations disproportionately affected by migraine.

Abstract Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a condition in which the heart is starved of oxygen. Knowing the dietary risk factors implementing appropriate nutritional interventions in this regard seems essential. Therefore, the present study was carried out to determine the epidemiological features of IHD affected by dietary risks. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In this study, we collected information on death, years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of IHD affected by dietary risks in one hundred thousand people with 95% confidence based on the direct Age Standard Rate (ASR). We applied these data based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In 2019, the number of IHD deaths, YLDs, and DALYs attributable to dietary risks was 62.43 million (95% UI [50.97–73.63] per 100,000 population), 36.88 (95% UI [23.87–53.32] per 100,000 population), and 1271.32 (95% UI [1061.29–1473.75] per 100,000 population), respectively. We found that the lowest DALYs of IHD affected by dietary risks by ASR are for high SDI countries. Most dietary risk factors related to IHD in countries with high and high middle SDI were related to a diet high in red and processed meat, sodium, and low in legumes, but in countries with low and low middle SDI, it was related to a diet low in fiber, fruit, nuts and seeds, PUFA, seafood W3 fatty acids, vegetables and whole grain. Considering that the dietary risk factors related to IHD are different based on SDI, it is necessary to consider nutritional interventions according to SDI.

Abstract Background In recent years, the escalating concern for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has been recognized as a pressing global health issue. This concern is acutely manifested in low- and middle-income countries, where there is an escalating prevalence among adolescents and young adults. The burgeoning of these conditions threatens to impair patients' occupational capabilities and overall life quality. Despite the considerable global impact of NTDs, comprehensive studies focusing on their impact in younger populations remain scarce. Our study aims to describe the global prevalence of neglected tropical diseases among people aged 15 to 39 years over the 30-year period from 1990 to 2019, and to project the disease burden of the disease up to 2040. Methods Annual data on incident cases, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for NTDs were procured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). These data were stratified by global and regional distribution, country, social development index (SDI), age, and sex. We computed age-standardized rates (ASRs) and the numbers of incident cases, mortalities, and DALYs from 1990 to 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in the ASRs was calculated to evaluate evolving trends. Results In 2019, it was estimated that there were approximately 552 million NTD cases globally (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 519.9 million to 586.3 million), a 29% decrease since 1990. South Asia reported the highest NTD prevalence, with an estimated 171.7 million cases (95% UI: 150.4 million to 198.6 million). Among the five SDI categories, the prevalence of NTDs was highest in the moderate and low SDI regions in 1990 (approximately 270.5 million cases) and 2019 (approximately 176.5 million cases). Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the most significant decline in NTD cases over the past three decades. Overall, there was a significant inverse correlation between the disease burden of NTDs and SDI. Conclusion NTDs imposed over half a billion incident cases and 10.8 million DALYs lost globally in 2019—exerting an immense toll rivaling major infectious and non-communicable diseases. Encouraging declines in prevalence and disability burdens over the past three decades spotlight the potential to accelerate progress through evidence-based allocation of resources. Such strategic integration could substantially enhance public awareness about risk factors and available treatment options.

OBJECTIVE: Recent meta-analyses demonstrate that small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplements (SQ-LNS) for young children significantly reduce child mortality, stunting, wasting, anaemia and adverse developmental outcomes. Cost considerations should inform policy decisions. We developed a modelling framework to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of SQ-LNS and applied the framework in the context of rural Uganda. DESIGN: We adapted costs from a costing study of micronutrient powder (MNP) in Uganda, and based effectiveness estimates on recent meta-analyses and Uganda-specific estimates of baseline mortality and the prevalence of stunting, wasting, anaemia and developmental disability. SETTING: Rural Uganda. PARTICIPANTS: Not applicable. RESULTS: Providing SQ-LNS daily to all children in rural Uganda (> 1 million) for 12 months (from 6 to 18 months of age) via the existing Village Health Team system would cost ∼$52 per child (2020 US dollars) or ∼$58·7 million annually. SQ-LNS could avert an average of > 242 000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually as a result of preventing 3689 deaths, > 160 000 cases of moderate or severe anaemia and ∼6000 cases of developmental disability. The estimated cost per DALY averted is $242. CONCLUSIONS: In this context, SQ-LNS may be more cost-effective than other options such as MNP or the provision of complementary food, although the total cost for a programme including all age-eligible children would be high. Strategies to reduce costs, such as targeting to the most vulnerable populations and the elimination of taxes on SQ-LNS, may enhance financial feasibility.

BACKGROUND: Anaemia is a major health problem worldwide. Global estimates of anaemia burden are crucial for developing appropriate interventions to meet current international targets for disease mitigation. We describe the prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends of anaemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories. METHODS: We estimated population-level distributions of haemoglobin concentration by age and sex for each location from 1990 to 2021. We then calculated anaemia burden by severity and associated years lived with disability (YLDs). With data on prevalence of the causes of anaemia and associated cause-specific shifts in haemoglobin concentrations, we modelled the proportion of anaemia attributed to 37 underlying causes for all locations, years, and demographics in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. FINDINGS: In 2021, the global prevalence of anaemia across all ages was 24·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9-24·7), corresponding to 1·92 billion (1·89-1·95) prevalent cases, compared with a prevalence of 28·2% (27·8-28·5) and 1·50 billion (1·48-1·52) prevalent cases in 1990. Large variations were observed in anaemia burden by age, sex, and geography, with children younger than 5 years, women, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia being particularly affected. Anaemia caused 52·0 million (35·1-75·1) YLDs in 2021, and the YLD rate due to anaemia declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index. The most common causes of anaemia YLDs in 2021 were dietary iron deficiency (cause-specific anaemia YLD rate per 100 000 population: 422·4 [95% UI 286·1-612·9]), haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias (89·0 [58·2-123·7]), and other neglected tropical diseases (36·3 [24·4-52·8]), collectively accounting for 84·7% (84·1-85·2) of anaemia YLDs. INTERPRETATION: Anaemia remains a substantial global health challenge, with persistent disparities according to age, sex, and geography. Estimates of cause-specific anaemia burden can be used to design locally relevant health interventions aimed at improving anaemia management and prevention. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Abstract Background Cervical cancer is ranked as the second most common cancer in India. This study aims to assess the cervical cancer burden at the national and subnational level in India, projecting it for the year 2025 in terms of years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Methods Twenty-eight population based cancer registries within the National Cancer Registry Programme network contributed cancer incidence and mortality data for this analysis. The DisMod-II tool, WHO lifetables, disability weights, mortality to incidence ratio, sample registration system, and census data were used to estimate the burden of cervical cancer. The projection estimates for 2025 were performed using a negative binomial regression model. Results In 2016, the cervical cancer burden in India was 223.8 DALYs per 100,000 women. The highest age-standardised DALYs were found in the northeast region (290.1 DALYs per 100,000 women) and the lowest in the eastern region (156.1 DALYs per 100,000 women). The states of Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Nagaland had a higher cervical cancer burden with DALYs exceeding 300 per 100,000 women. The projected cervical cancer burden for India in 2025 was estimated to be 1.5 million DALYs. Conclusions The study has found a significant cervical cancer burden across the regions of India, providing a baseline for monitoring impact of actions. Enhancing awareness of cervical cancer, advocating for the significance of screening, and promoting HPV vaccination among adolescents, families, and communities through informative communication campaigns are essential steps in managing and ultimately eliminating cervical cancer in India.

Abstract Background The growing prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in younger populations, particularly those of working age (15–64 years), has become a public health concern. Being diagnosed at a younger age implies a greater likelihood of accruing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) later in life due to potential progression to conditions such as cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. This study aims to analyze NAFLD prevalence trends over three decades globally, regionally, and nationally, with a focus on age, period, and birth cohort associations. Methods Global, regional, and country time trends in the prevalence of NAFLD among working-age people from 1990 to 2019: Age-period-cohort analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 estimates and 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of NAFLD prevalence in the working age population was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the prevalence within each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period bias (age effect), and period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect). Results The global age-standardized prevalence (ASPR) of NAFLD increased significantly from 1990 (14,477.6 per 100 000) to 2019 (19,837.6 per 100 000). In the Western Pacific, there were 42,903.8 NAFLD cases in 2019, 54.15% higher than in 1990. The ASPR also increased significantly in the region over the past three decades. At the national level, Palau had the highest ASPR while Brunei Darussalam had the lowest. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that in the Western Pacific, unlike globally, the risk of NAFLD declined after age 60–64 years. Relative to 1980–1989, incidence and DALY risks decreased but prevalence increased in subsequent birth cohorts. Future predictions indicate an upward trend in NAFLD burden, especially among women and medium (SDI) regions like China. Conclusion Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease imparts an immense health burden that continues to grow globally and in the Asia Pacific region. Our work highlights working age adults as an at-risk group and calls attention to socioeconomic gradients within Western Pacific countries. Upward future projections demonstrate that NAFLD prevention is an urgent priority.

Abstract Background Drug use disorders (DUDs) have emerged as one of the most significant public health crises, exerting a substantial influence on both community health and socio-economic progress. The United States (US) also suffers a heavy burden, it is necessary to figure out the situation from multiple perspectives and take effective measures to deal with it. Therefore, using the data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2021, we evaluated this topic. Methods Annual data on DUDs-related burden were collected from the GBD study 2021. We calculated the indicator of estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to evaluate the changing trend of burden. The Bayesian model for age-period-cohort was introduced to forecast the burden. Results In 2021, the number and age-standardized rate of prevalence were particularly prominent, with 12,146.95 thousand and 3821.43 per 100,000, respectively. Higher burden was also observed in males, 15–45 years old populations, and opioid use disorders subtype. From 1990 to 2021, the DUDs-related burden increased in the US and all states, especially in West Virginia; and the national death-related burden with the highest increase (EAPC = 7.96). Other significant inverse associations were seen between EAPC, age-standardized rates, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Moreover, in the next 14 years, the projected DUDs burden remains exigent. Conclusions The burden of DUDs in the US is heavy and has been enlarging. This study proposes that greater attention should be paid to the strategies in males, the younger population, opioid use disorders, and low-SDI states implemented by decision-makers to achieve goals such as reducing burden.

Abstract Background Depressive disorders have been identified as a significant contributor to non-fatal health loss in China. Among the various subtypes of depressive disorders, dysthymia is gaining attention due to its similarity in clinical severity and disability to major depressive disorders (MDD). However, national epidemiological data on the burden of disease and risk factors of MDD and dysthymia in China are scarce. Methods This study aimed to evaluate and compare the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by MDD and dysthymia in China between 1990 and 2019. The temporal trends of the depressive disorder burden were evaluated using the average annual percentage change. The comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of DALYs attributed to risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to project the burden of depressive disorders. Results From 1990 to 2019, the overall age-standardized estimates of dysthymia in China remained stable, while MDD showed a decreasing trend. Since 2006, the raw prevalence of dysthymia exceeded that of MDD for the first time, and increased alternately with MDD in recent years. Moreover, while the prevalence and burden of MDD decreased in younger age groups, it increased in the aged population. In contrast, the prevalence and burden of dysthymia remained stable across different ages. In females, 11.34% of the DALYs attributable to depressive disorders in 2019 in China were caused by intimate partner violence, which has increasingly become prominent among older women. From 2020 to 2030, the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of dysthymia in China are projected to remain stable, while MDD is expected to continue declining. Conclusions To reduce the burden of depressive disorders in China, more attention and targeted strategies are needed for dysthymia. It’s also urgent to control potential risk factors like intimate partner violence and develop intervention strategies for older women. These efforts are crucial for improving mental health outcomes in China.

Background Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) has a high incidence and a heavy disease burden in recent years, but there is a lack of data to understand the burden of GERD in China. This study describes and analyzes the disease burden of GERD in order to better understand the prevalence of GERD in China. Objective To analyze the disease burden and prevalence trend of GERD in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a reference for the prevention and treatment of GERD in China. Methods Crude and standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of GERD in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2019 (GBD 2019) ; the rate of change was calculated, and Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of GERD, and the annual percentage change (APC) was calculated. Results In 2019, the crude rate and standardized rate of GERD incidence in China were 2 299.80 per 100 000 and 1 841.66 per 100 000, respectively. Compared with 1 761.59 per 100 000 and 1 849.31 per 100 000 in 1990, the crude rate increased by 30.55%, and the standardized rate decreased by 0.41%. In 2019, the crude rate and standardized rate of GERD prevalence in China were 5 739.55 per 100 000 and 4 509.32 per 100 000, respectively. Compared with 4 252.72 per 100 000 and 4 532.19 per 100 000 in 1990, the crude rate increased by 34.96%, and the standardized rate decreased by 0.51%. In 2019, the crude rate and standardized rate of GERD DALY rate in China were 44.37 per 100 000 and 34.94 per 100 000, respectively. Compared with 33.10 per 100 000 and 35.04 per 100 000 in 1990, the crude rate increased by 34.05%, and the standardized rate decreased by 0.29%. The standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates were lower than crude rates after 1996. The standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of Chinese women were higher than those of men from 1990 to 2019. The results of Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the standardized incidence of GERD in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 1994 (APC=-1.0%), a downward trend from 2005 to 2010 (APC=-1.4%), and an upward trend from 2014 to 2017 (APC=3.2%). The standardized prevalence of GERD in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 1994 (APC=-1.2%), a downward trend from 2005 to 2009 (APC=-1.7%), and an upward trend from 2014 to 2017 (APC=3.7%). The standardized DALY rates of GERD in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 1994 (APC=-1.1%), a downward trend from 2005 to 2009 (APC=-1.7%), and an upward trend from 2014 to 2017 (APC=3.6%). In 2019, the standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates of GERD in China continued to increase with age, peaking at the age of 70 to 84 years. The number of new cases and cases of GERD in 2019 were respectively about 32.711 3 million and 81.636 5 million, and the populations were mainly concentrated in the age group of 45 to 59 years and 30 to 34 years. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of GERD in China showed an upward trend in terms of crude rate and a slight decline in terms of standardized rate, indicating that aging had a great impact on the incidence, prevalence and DALY rate of GERD in China. In addition, it is important to pay attention to the middle-aged and young population, who account for a larger proportion of the population already suffering from GERD and may be closely related to overweight or obesity, alcohol consumption and dietary habits, etc.

Abstract Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increases the risk of liver cancer among people living with hepatitis B virus (HBV). Our study aimed to estimate the global burden and trends of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV from 1990 to 2019. Methods We calculated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among the burden of HBV-related liver cancer. We applied the PAFs to the burden of HBV-related liver cancer derived from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database to obtain the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV–T2DM comorbidity. The prevalence, disability-adjusted life year (DALY), and deaths of liver cancer attributable to the comorbidity were assessed at the global, regional, and country levels and then stratified by the sociodemographic index (SDI), sex, and age group. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Results In 2019, the global age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to HBV–T2DM comorbidity were 9.9 (8.4–11.5) and 182.4 (154.9–212.7) per 10,000,000 individuals, respectively. High-income Asia Pacific and East Asia had the highest age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of liver cancer attributable to HBV–T2DM comorbidity, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates increased in 16 out of 21 GBD regions. High-income North America had the largest annual increases in both age-standardized prevalence rates (EAPC = 6.07; 95% UI, 5.59 to 6.56) and DALY rates (EAPC = 4.77; 95% UI, 4.35 to 5.20), followed by Australasia and Central Asia. Across all SDI regions, the high SDI region exhibited the most rapid increase in age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, men had consistently higher disease burdens than women across all age groups. The patterns of mortality burden and trends are similar to those of DALYs. Conclusions The burden of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV has exhibited an increasing trend across most regions over the last three decades. Tailored prevention strategies targeting T2DM should be implemented among individuals living with HBV.

Abstract Background Pneumoconiosis, a chronic disease stemming from prolonged inhalation of dust particles, stands as a significant global burden of occupational diseases. This study aims to investigate the survival outcomes of pneumoconiosis patients in Huangshi city, China, while also evaluating the disease burden on afflicted patients. Methods Data for this study were sourced from the Huangshi Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Survival analyses of pneumoconiosis patients were conducted employing life tables and the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox proportional hazards models were deployed to identify factors influencing pneumoconiosis patients’ survival duration. Competing risks models were employed to confirm the validity of the model outcomes. Additionally, in the disease burden assessment, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were computed for various demographic groups and time frames. Results A total of 5,641 pneumoconiosis cases, diagnosed in Huangshi City, Hubei Province between 1958 and 2021, were incorporated into the cohort analysis. The probability of mortality and the risk ratio increased with advancing age. Notably, the median survival time of stage III pneumoconiosis patients was significantly shorter compared with those in stages I and II. The Cox proportional hazards model and competing risks analyses underscored several significant factors influencing survival time, including dust exposure duration (HR = 1.197, 95% CI: 1.104–1.298), age at first diagnosis (HR = 3.149, 95% CI: 2.961–3.349), presence of silicosis (HR = 1.378, 95% CI: 1.254–1.515), and stage II-III pneumoconiosis (HR = 1.456, 95% CI: 1.148–1.848). Cumulatively, DALYs amounted to 7,974.35 person-years, with an average of 1.41 person-years. The period between 2000 and 2019 witnessed the highest disease burden. Conclusion Our findings highlight the urgent need for improved prevention, earlier detection, and more effective management strategies for the occupational pneumoconiosis population. This study not only underscores the persistent issue of pneumoconiosis in industrial environments but also serves as a crucial call to action for policymakers and healthcare providers.

Background Asthma is one of the most common chronic respiratory diseases. Understanding its prevalence, trend and risk factors is of great significance to take targeted preventive and control measures. Objective To analyze the prevalence, burden and trend of asthma in China from 1990 to 2019, and analyze the rank of asthma risk factors, so as to provide a basis for effective prevention and control of asthma in China. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Database 2019 (GBD 2019), disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and prevalence rates were used to analyse trends in the burden of disease by gender and age in China from 1990 to 2019. Changes in asthma risk factors were analyzed by population attributable faction (PAF) of standardized DALY rate and mortality rate. Results In 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate, YLL rate and YLD rate for asthma in China was 102.81/ 100 000, 24.50/100 000 and 78.31/100 000, respectively, and the standardized prevalence rate was 1 974.16 /100 000, which was higher in all males than females, and higher in the 1-9 and ≥65 years old groups than the other groups. 1990-2019, the crude YLL rate was gradually decreasing in the ≥40 years old group, with DALY crude rates, YLD crude rates and prevalence all crossing over in the

Background Gallbladder cancer is featured by difficult early detection, poor treatment effectiveness and high mortality. An in-depth epidemiology research of gallbladder cancer can provide valuable data for the formulation of prevention and treatment strategies for gallbladder cancer. Objective To analyze the trend of disease burden of gallbladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019, and to estimate its onset age, period, cohort effects and future trends. Methods Data of disease burden of gallbladder cancer, including the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability adjusted life year (DALYs) rate and corresponding standardized rates in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Research (GBD 2019) database from March to June 2023. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated using Joinpoint to analyze the trend of disease burden of gallbladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC) model was created to predict the incidence of gallbladder cancer in China from 2020 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate of gallbladder cancer in China significantly rose from 1.58/100 000 in 1990 to 2.01/100 000 in 2019, with the AAPC of 0.82% (95%CI=0.65%-1.00%, P

Background: Cervical cancer is ranked as the second most common cancer in India. This study aims to assess the cervical cancer burden at the national and subnational level in India, projecting it for the year 2025 in terms of years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Methods: Twenty-eight population based cancer registries within the National Cancer Registry Programme network contributed cancer incidence and mortality data for this analysis. The DisMod-II tool, WHO lifetables, disability weights, mortality to incidence ratio, sample registration system, and census data were used to estimate the burden of cervical cancer. The projection estimates for 2025 were performed using a negative binomial regression model. Results: In 2016, the cervical cancer burden in India was 223.8 DALYs per 100,000 women. The highest age-standardised DALYs were found in the northeast region (290.1 DALYs per 100,000 women) and the lowest in the eastern region (156.1 DALYs per 100,000 women). The states of Mizoram, Arunachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Nagaland had a higher cervical cancer burden with DALYs exceeding 300 per 100,000 women. The projected cervical cancer burden for India in 2025 was estimated to be 1.5 million DALYs. Conclusions: The study has found a significant cervical cancer burden across the regions of India, providing a baseline for monitoring impact of actions. Enhancing awareness of cervical cancer, advocating for the significance of screening, and promoting HPV vaccination among adolescents, families, and communities through informative communication campaigns are essential steps in managing and ultimately eliminating cervical cancer in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The growing prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in younger populations, particularly those of working age (15–64 years), has become a public health concern. Being diagnosed at a younger age implies a greater likelihood of accruing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) later in life due to potential progression to conditions such as cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. This study aims to analyze NAFLD prevalence trends over three decades globally, regionally, and nationally, with a focus on age, period, and birth cohort associations. Methods: Global, regional, and country time trends in the prevalence of NAFLD among working-age people from 1990 to 2019: Age-period-cohort analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 estimates and 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of NAFLD prevalence in the working age population was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the prevalence within each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period bias (age effect), and period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect). Results: The global age-standardized prevalence (ASPR) of NAFLD increased significantly from 1990 (14,477.6 per 100 000) to 2019 (19,837.6 per 100 000). In the Western Pacific, there were 42,903.8 NAFLD cases in 2019, 54.15% higher than in 1990. The ASPR also increased significantly in the region over the past three decades. At the national level, Palau had the highest ASPR while Brunei Darussalam had the lowest. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that in the Western Pacific, unlike globally, the risk of NAFLD declined after age 60–64 years. Relative to 1980–1989, incidence and DALY risks decreased but prevalence increased in subsequent birth cohorts. Future predictions indicate an upward trend in NAFLD burden, especially among women and medium (SDI) regions like China. Conclusion: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease imparts an immense health burden that continues to grow globally and in the Asia Pacific region. Our work highlights working age adults as an at-risk group and calls attention to socioeconomic gradients within Western Pacific countries. Upward future projections demonstrate that NAFLD prevention is an urgent priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Bone and joint infections, complicated by the burgeoning challenge of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), pose significant public health threats by amplifying the disease burden globally. We leveraged results from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to explore the impact of AMR attributed to bone and joint infections in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), elucidating the contemporary status and temporal trends. Methods: Utilizing GBD 2019 data, we summarized the burden of bone and joint infections attributed to AMR across 195 countries and territories in the 30 years from 1990 to 2019. We review the epidemiology of AMR in terms of age-standardized rates, the estimated DALYs, comprising years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs), as well as associations between DALYs and socio-demographic indices. Results: The GBD revealed that DALYs attributed to bone and joint infections associated with AMR have risen discernibly between 1990 and 2019 globally. Significant geographical disparities and a positive correlation with socio-demographic indicators were observed. Staphylococcus aureus infections, Group A Streptococcus, Group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Enterobacter-related bone and joint infections were associated with the highest DALYs because of a high proportion of antimicrobial resistance. Countries with limited access to healthcare, suboptimal sanitary conditions, and inconsistent antibiotic stewardship were markedly impacted. Conclusions: The GBD underscores the escalating burden of bone and joint infections exacerbated by AMR, necessitating urgent, multi-faceted interventions. Strategies to mitigate the progression and impact of AMR should emphasize prudent antimicrobial usage and robust infection prevention and control measures, coupled with advancements in diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Extreme ambient temperatures have been linked to increased risks of stroke morbidity and mortality. However, global estimates of the burden of stroke due to extreme low temperatures are not well-defined. Aims: This study aimed to determine the global burden of stroke due to extreme low temperatures and its spatiotemporal trend from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we obtained global, regional, and national data on deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized rate of DALYs (ASDR) of stroke attributed to extreme low temperatures, further stratified by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Results: Globally, in 2019, an estimated 474,000 stroke deaths with the corresponding ASMR (6.2 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4.6–7.9)) and ASDR (103.9 (95% UI: 77.0–134.5)) per 100,000 population, were attributable to extreme low temperatures. The most significant burden was observed in Central Asia, followed by Eastern Europe and East Asia. From 1990 to 2019, the global burden of stroke and its subtypes (ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage) attributable to extreme low temperatures exhibited a decrease in both ASMR and ASDR. Significant decreases in stroke burden occurred in the high-SDI regions, high-income Asia Pacific, and subarachnoid hemorrhage cases. Moreover, the ASMR and ASDR increased with age and were higher in males than females. Conclusion: The global stroke burden due to extreme low temperatures remains high despite a decreasing trend over the past three decades. The stroke burden due to extreme low temperatures was more notable for Central Asia, older people, and the male sex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To assess the disease burden of diabetic nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict its incidence from 2020 to 2024, providing a scientific basis for prevention and control strategies. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2019) database, we described the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of type 1 and type 2 diabetic nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2019. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, constructed using R software, was used to predict the standardized incidence of diabetic nephropathy in China from 2020 to 2024. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence of type 1 diabetic nephropathy in China increased (annual percentage change [APC] = 0.04%, P < 0.001), while the standardized mortality rate (APC=-0.021%, P < 0.001) and DALYs rate (APC=-0.013%, P < 0.001) decreased. Type 2 diabetic nephropathy showed an overall increase in disease burden (standardized incidence APC=0.014%, standardized mortality APC=0.001%, DALYs rate APC=0.027%, all P < 0.001). There was a significant gender disparity, with a higher disease burden in males than females. Type 1 diabetic nephropathy predominantly affected individuals under 5 years old, and the age distribution of standardized mortality and DALYs rate showed the characteristics of “high in the middle and low in both sides”. Type 2 diabetic nephropathy incidence peaked in those aged 70 to 84 years, and the age distribution of mortality and DALYs rate showed an inverted pyramid shape and increased with age. Predictions indicated a decline in type 1 diabetic nephropathy and an increase in type 2 diabetic nephropathy incidence from 2020 to 2024. Conclusion The burden of diabetic nephropathy remains substantial in China, and the disease burden of type 2 diabetic nephropathy is significantly higher than that of type 1 diabetic nephropathy. This underscores the need for enhanced health management strategies, focusing on high-risk groups such as men and the elderly. The predicted rise in type 2 diabetic nephropathy emphasizes the urgency for comprehensive interventions to address diabetes-related burdens effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims To devise effective preventive measures, a profound understanding of the evolving patterns and trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) burdens is pivotal. Our study was designed to quantify the burden and delineate the risk factors associated with AF and AFL across 204 countries and territories spanning 1990–2021. Methods and results Data pertaining to AF and AFL were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The burden of AF/AFL was evaluated using metrics such as incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), deaths, and their corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs), stratified by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and human development index (HDI). The estimated annual percentage change was employed to quantify changes in ASRs. Population attributable fractions were calculated to determine the proportional contributions of major risk factors to age-standardized AF/AFL deaths. This analysis encompassed the period from 1990 to 2021. Globally, in 2021, there were 4.48 million incident cases [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.61–5.70], 8.36 million DALYs (95% UI: 6.97–10.13) and 0.34 million deaths (95% UI: 0.29–0.37) attributed to AF/AFL. The AF/AFL burden in 2021, as well as its trends from 1990 to 2021, displayed substantial variations based on gender, SDI quintiles, and geographical regions. High systolic blood pressure emerged as the leading contributor to age-standardized AF/AFL incidence, prevalence, death, and DALY rate globally among all potential risk factors, followed closely by high body mass index. Conclusion Our study underscores the enduring significance of AF/AFL as a prominent public health concern worldwide, marked by profound regional and national variations. Despite the substantial potential for prevention and management of AF/AFL, there is a pressing imperative to adopt more cost-effective strategies and interventions to target modifiable risk factors, particularly in areas where the burden of AF/AFL is high or escalating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Drug use disorders (DUDs) have emerged as one of the most significant public health crises, exerting a substantial influence on both community health and socio-economic progress. The United States (US) also suffers a heavy burden, it is necessary to figure out the situation from multiple perspectives and take effective measures to deal with it. Therefore, using the data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2021, we evaluated this topic. Methods: Annual data on DUDs-related burden were collected from the GBD study 2021. We calculated the indicator of estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to evaluate the changing trend of burden. The Bayesian model for age-period-cohort was introduced to forecast the burden. Results: In 2021, the number and age-standardized rate of prevalence were particularly prominent, with 12,146.95 thousand and 3821.43 per 100,000, respectively. Higher burden was also observed in males, 15–45 years old populations, and opioid use disorders subtype. From 1990 to 2021, the DUDs-related burden increased in the US and all states, especially in West Virginia; and the national death-related burden with the highest increase (EAPC = 7.96). Other significant inverse associations were seen between EAPC, age-standardized rates, and socio-demographic index (SDI). Moreover, in the next 14 years, the projected DUDs burden remains exigent. Conclusions: The burden of DUDs in the US is heavy and has been enlarging. This study proposes that greater attention should be paid to the strategies in males, the younger population, opioid use disorders, and low-SDI states implemented by decision-makers to achieve goals such as reducing burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]