Search

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ekonomisinde enflasyonun belirleyicilerini ekonometrik olarak araştırmaktır. 2006-2021 dönemini analiz eden çalışmada döviz kuru, faiz oranı, reel para arzı, bütçe açığı ve cari açığın enflasyon oranı üzerindeki etkisi Adımsal (Stepwise) regresyon, Vektör Otoregresyon (VAR) ve Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) model olmak üzere üç farklı zaman serisi tekniği altında tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, döviz kuru hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde enflasyon oranı üzerinde doğru yönlü etki yaratmaktadır. Reel para arzındaki değişim her iki dönemde de enflasyonu ters yönlü etkilemektedir. Faiz oranı enflasyonu doğru yönlü etkilemektedir. Ancak bu etki marjinal olarak düşüktür. Bütçe açığı kısa dönemde enflasyonu etkilemekle birlikte uzun dönemde enflasyon üzerinde belirleyici değildir. Çalışmada cari açığın enflasyon üzerinde belirleyici olduğuna dair güçlü bulgular elde edilmemiştir. 2006-2021 döneminde ele alınan değişkenler itibariyle Türkiye ekonomisinde uzun dönemde enflasyon üzerinde istatistiksel olarak en etkili faktör döviz kurundaki değişimlerdir.

The aim of this study is to econometrically investigate the determinants of inflation in the Turkish economy. In the study that analyses the period of 2006-2021, the effect of exchange rate, interest rate, real money supply, budget deficit and current account deficit on the inflation rate was estimated under three different time series techniques: Stepwise regression model, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. According to the findings, the exchange rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate in both the short and long-run. The change in real money supply affects negatively inflation in both periods. Interest rate has a positive effect on the inflation rate. However, this effect is marginally low. Although the budget deficit affects inflation in the short-run, it is not a determinant on inflation in the long-run. In the study, strong findings that the current account deficit is determinant on inflation were not obtained. In terms of the variables discussed in the period of 2006-2021, the most statistically effective factor on inflation in the long run in the Turkish economy is the changes in the exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye için enflasyonun 2008 sonrası belirleyicilerini araştırmaktır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi saptamak için 2008:1-2019:12 dönemini kapsayan aylık veriler zaman serisi analizi ile test edilmektedir. Johansen eşbütünleşme analizine göre, serilerin uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik olduğu görülmektedir. Granger nedensellik test sonuçları incelendiğine, TÜFE ile hampetrol ve doğalgaz fiyatları, reel efektif döviz kuru ve yurtiçi kredi hacmi arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, TÜFE’den para arzı ve politika faiz oranına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi mevcutken, ÜFE ile bankalarca mevduatlara verilen faiz oranından TÜFE’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı ortaya çıkmaktadır. Ayrıca VAR analizi temelinde gerçekleştirilen etki-tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırması sonuçları değerlendirilmektedir.

This article offers an empirical analysis of determinants of inflation in 28 European economies that belonged to the transition group of countries in the end of the last century. We rely on dynamic panel methodology and find that economic and structural variables, including economic openness, unemployment, real wages, institutional effects, as well as external factors, such as prices of food and oil, determine the short-run inflationary dynamics in these countries. The obtained results also indicate that inflation rate is autoregressive in the observed period (2005-2015), confirming that contemporaneous inflation rate is determined by the entire history of these determinants. Our further investigation reveals long-term effects of the majority of these variables on price dynamics. Interestingly, distinction between the current EU and transition countries in the model does not lead to different conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Dilemas Contemporáneos: Educación, Política y Valores is the property of Dilemas Contemporaneos: Educacion, Politica y Valores and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Inflation was a serious problem in the Turkish economy between 1980-2000. The inflation targeting program implemented after the 2001 economic crisis was relatively successful. Because annual inflation rates exceeded 60% in the early 2000s. It has first entered a gradual decline with the introduction of the inflation targeting program, then it decreased to single-digit rates from the second quarter of 2004. However, the increase in prices towards the end of 2018 brought this issue back to the agenda once again. In this context, the aim of the study is to empirically analyze the local and global determinants of inflation in the inflation targeting period in Turkey economy. In the study, the variables that investigated the effects on inflation are the gross domestic product, exchange rate, global commodity prices and global food prices. The bound test and ARDL were preferred as empirical analysis methods. The analysis includes the periods 2003-2018 and quarterly data is used. The results of the analysis indicate that exchange rate, global commodity prices and gross domestic product have a positive effect on inflation in the long run. However, global food prices positively affect inflation only in the short term. Consequently, the results obtained from the analysis point that the impact of global factors on inflation is very important in 2003-2018 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Research Journal of Politics, Economics & Management / Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Research Journal of Politics, Economics & Management and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The last decades have shown a tendency towards higher central bank transparency. This leads to the question of how central bank transparency is entangled with price stability and inflation volatility. A plethora of studies analysed the relationship from a theoretical point of view and came to contradictory results. Thus, the article aims to analyse this question empirically and to better understand the mechanism behind it. Firstly, the results show that transparency reduces inflation expectations and inflation even if we control for other determinants. However, transparency alone is not sufficient to produce stable prices. Secondly, the paper proves that the effect on inflation mainly comes from reduced inflation expectations. Thirdly, we show that central bank transparency seems to diminish inflation uncertainty. This confirms the economic importance of central bank transparency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to prices, whereas the second argues that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, the literature review suggeststhat there is at least some consensus in that researcher’s conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that relationship may alter with economic cycles. This paper empirically examines theprice-wage causal relationship in EU-27, by using the OLS and VECM analysis, and it also provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the shortrun.Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of estimatedVECM. The evidence resulting from model robustness checks indicates that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and wages, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence in the case of EU-27.

The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to price, whereas the second argue that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, there is at least some consensus that researchers conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that the relationship may vary through economic cycles. This paper empirically examines the pricewage causal relationship in EMU, by using OLS and VECM analysis, and also it provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the short-run. Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of the estimated VECM and finally model robustness checks indicate that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and variables, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence for the case of EMU.

The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to prices, whereas the second argues that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, there is at least some consensus that researcher's conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that the relationship may vary through economic cycles. This paper empirically examines the price-wage causal relationship in Germany, by using OLS and VECM analysis, and it also provides robust evidence in support of a long-run unilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, running from wages to prices. In contrast, the evidence suggests that there is no statistically significant short-run relationship between prices and wages. Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of the estimated VECM. The evidence resulting from model robustness checks indicates that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and wages, this paper at least provides solid evidence for the case of Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the determination of inflation in the framework of an open economy forward-looking as well as conventional backward-looking Phillips curve for eight Asian countries - Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand, China Mainland and India. Using quarterly data from the 1990s to 2005 and applying the instrumental variables estimation technique, we find that the output gap is significant in explaining the inflation rate in almost all the countries. Furthermore, at least one measure of international competitiveness has a statistically significant influence on inflation in all the countries. The differences in the developed and developing world are highlighted by the significance of agriculture related supply shocks in determining inflation in the case of developing countries. For all countries, the forward-looking Phillips curve provides a better fit compared to the backward-looking variant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]