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Social Protection Programs for Africa’s Drylands explores the role of social protection in promoting the well-being and prosperity of people living in dryland regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, with a specific focus on the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Based on a review of recent experience, it argues that social protection policies and programs have an important role in promoting the resilience of the people residing in these areas. Social protection programs, when well designed and carefully implemented at scale, can reduce vulnerability to droughts and other shocks and promote coping capacity. If present trends continue, by 2030 dryland regions of East and West Africa will be home to an estimated 429 million people, up to 24 percent of whom will be living in chronic poverty. Many others will depend on livelihood strategies that are sensitive to the shocks that will hit the region with increasing frequency and severity, making them vulnerable to falling into transient poverty. Social protection programs will be needed in the drylands to provide support to those unable to meet their basic needs. Some of these people will require long-term support, while others will require periodic short-term support because of income losses due to shocks (for example, crop failure following a drought) or as a result of lifecycle changes (for example, loss of a breadwinner). Safety net programs can increase resilience in the short term by improving coping capacity of vulnerable households. Rapidly scalable safety nets that provide cash, food, or other resources to shock-affected households can allow them to recover from unexpected shocks. Scaling up an existing safety net program can be far less expensive than relying on appeals for humanitarian assistance to meet urgent needs. Social protection programs can increase resilience over the longer term by reducing sensitivity to shocks of vulnerable households especially if combined with other development programs. Providing predictable support to chronically poor households and enabling them to invest in productive assets and access basic social services can effectively reduce these households’ sensitivity to future shocks, help them participate in the growth process, and take advantage of the investments made in agricultural and pastoralist activities proposed in the drylands.

This paper assesses the ex-post performance of two popular targeting mechanisms, Proxy Means Testing (PMT) and Community-Based Targeting (CBT), in a pilot cash transfer program in Cameroon. CBT is found to perform poorly in terms of selecting households with low per capita consumption when compared to PMT. CBT appears to select households with low physical and human capital, regardless of actual consumption level and shows more variability in the selection decision than PMT. The results suggest caution is needed in employing CBT methods to select households with low per capita consumption in an environment with high poverty rates and limited administrative capacity.

Cash transfers have proliferated in the past decade as key policy instruments to tackle vulnerability and inequality. Payment mechanisms (PMs), the backbone of cash transfers, are the channels through which cash travels from the funding source to the hands of beneficiaries. In theory, the harmonization ofpayment flows in PMs with other program processes is critical to delivering the right benefit to the right people at the right time while minimizing costs. In reality, however, PMs tend to remain disconnected, rendering payments inefficient and plagued by error, fraud and corruption. In recent years, program operators, financial institutions, and technology innovators have developed strategies for streamlining payment flows. These innovations, if properly integrated into program management through a Management Information System (MIS) and supported by rigorous outreach, can not only promote efficiency and transparency but also ensure effectiveness. This paper provides a framework for integrating PMs within program management. It walks the reader through seven basic steps to process payments. It does so by articulating the flow of beneficiary information and funds from the point of beneficiary enrollment to payment reconciliation and grievance redress. It also looks at the framework through the lenses of different cash transfer interventions and the cases of Kenya, Rwanda, and Mexico. The paper concludes that to execute successful PMs it is key to: (i) integrate payments within an MIS; (ii) adopt a cost-effective mix of traditional and technology instruments suitable to the country's context in the short and long run; (iii) decentralize the control and accountability of service provision across government levels; (iv) understand the capacity and incentives of stakeholders; (v) provide manuals, training and information to key players; and (vi) enforce payment parameters and penalize their violation.

This study analyzes the impact of farm size on productivity for rice producers in Bangladesh with a particular focus on a threshold effect of farm size. Using rich survey data for 960 rice farm households spread over 64 villages collected in 2008, total factor productivity measures for both Aman and Boro seasons are estimated using Data Envelopment Analysis. The estimates of productivity scores are further regressed on farm specific variables using Hansen’s (1996, 1999) threshold estimation procedures. The estimation results of a linear threshold technical efficiency equation confirm that 1) there are two thresholds that pertain the 960 Boro farm households into three possible categories and one threshold for the 465 Aman farm households, 2) farm size and productivity are positively related, with the exception of farms that hold more than 1 ha for the Boro season, and 3) factors that affect the rice productivity vary across farm size categories. Among the small farms (below 0.33~0.35 ha), the larger their farm size, the higher their productivity. Land fragmentation has an adverse effect on improving productivity, except for the large farms (above 1 ha). Policy adjustments related to land reform, aiming at small farms, would have the potential to increase rice production, as well as to fulfill their needs to sustain livelihood in Bangladesh., Replaced with revised version of poster 07/21/10.

Zambia is a county characterized by a high incidence of poverty and exposure to several types of shocks like HIV/AIDS, macroeconomic instability and periodic droughts. In this paper the authors conduct an in depth analysis of the incidence and impact of those shocks on poverty. The analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, carried out using the data on the occurrence of the death of an adult in the previous 12 months and the existence of foster children, shows the existence of a generaldecrease in consumption with the exception of non poor rural families. The deterioration of the economic situation and the related high level of unemployment resulted in a lower level of economic wellbeing. Finally, the analysis of the impact of the drought shows that while a significant percentage (17 percent) of the poorest households in rural areas would experience significant losses in maize production (covering 8 percent of all the households), they are concentrated in a few communities in Southern, Central and Western provinces. In order to identify those households that might suffer more from the negative impact of the shocks and/or have a low level of human capital the authors defined"vulnerable households", those that are likely to be poor and exposed to shocks, and"chronically poor households", those that are likely to be poor and have low levels of human capital outcomes. According to this definition, about 20 percent of the households are vulnerable whilst almost 40 percent are chronically poor and 10 percent are at the same time both vulnerable and chronically poor and therefore at most risk. Private coping mechanisms and private transfers are very common, but they do not seem to be effective in helping households to deal with the adverse impact of shocks. On the other hand, household participation in food for work programs increase after the death of a household member. Therefore there is a need for long term household human capital investments, programs to alleviate the burden of HIV/AIDS, and targeted programs for the alleviating weather related shocks like the drought.

Rural households in developing countries are buffeted by environmental, social, health and economic shocks. This paper provides an empirical vignette of the frequency and spatial distribution of such shocks in Madagascar. The association between shocks, community and household assets, and levels of economic well-being (as measured by per-capita expenditures) is then explored, along with the implications for reducing levels of chronic poverty.

At their peak, the 1998 floods covered two-thirds of Bangladesh, causing severe damage to the major rice crop and threatening the food security of tens of millions of households. Ultimately, well-functioning private markets, suitable government policies, and public and NGO interventions combined with effective private coping strategies to prevent a major post-disaster crisis. In this paper, we highlight the contribution of government policy interventions, including an earlier trade liberalization, to stabilization of rice markets during and after the floods. Then, we examine the impacts of the floods on flood-exposed households using a panel data set covering 750 households in three rounds over a 13-month period, focusing on impacts of the flood on household assets, consumption, and nutritional outcomes. The study finds that private sector borrowing, a major household coping strategy, played a key role in helping households maintain consumption, but that long-term debts increased. Finally, based on an econometric analysis of household food consumption, we present empirical estimates of the contribution of rice market stabilization to household food security.

"Flooding is a normal part of the ecology of Bangladesh. The 1998 flood was especially serious because of its depth and duration. At its peak, the flood covered two-thirds of the country, causing severe damage to the rice crop and threatening the food security of millions of households. Total rice production losses exceeded 2 million tons—about 10 percent of annual consumption. In sharp contrast to earlier flood disasters, particularly that of 1974, no major food crisis occurred. Instead, large-scale, private-sector imports, made possible by trade liberalization in the early 1990s, stabilized rice markets. Government food transfers to poor households also limited the impact of the flood on household access to food. This paper sheds light on the contribution of price stabilization to household food security following a major natural shock through estimates of the impact of rice prices and other factors on calorie consumption in 1998 and 1999. More broadly, the paper examines the components of the public and private response that prevented a major food crisis." from Abstract"

This paper examines the impact of wheat transfers and cash incomes on wheat consumption and wheat markets. Using propensity score- matching techniques, the total marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for wheat is, on average, 0.33, ranging from essentially zero for Food For Work (a program with large transfers) to 0.51 for Food For Education. Econometric estimates indicate that the MPC for small wheat transfers to poor households is approximately 0.25, while the MPC for wheat out of cash income is near zero. This increase in demand for wheat reduces the potential price effect of three major targeted programs involving small rations (Food For Education, Vulnerable Group Development, and Vulnerable Group Feeding) by about one-third.

The Government of Bangladesh launched the innovative Food for Education (FFE) program in 1993. The FFE program provides a free monthly ration of rice or wheat to poor families if their children attend primary school. The goals of this program are to increase primary school enrollment, promote attendance, reduce dropout rates, and enhance the quality of education. This paper presents the findings of a recent International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) evaluation of the FFE program that demonstrates the extent to which these goals were met. This evaluation uses primary data collected from multiple surveys covering schools, households, communities, and foodgrain dealers. The authors first examine the performance of the FFE program, showing that it has largely fulfilled its objectives of increasing school enrollment, promoting school attendance, and preventing dropouts. The enrollment increase was greater for girls than for boys. The quality of education, however, remains a problem. Next, they analyze the targeting effectiveness of the program, its impact on food security, and its efficiency in distributing rations. In general, the FFE program targets low-income households. However, there is considerable scope for improving targeting, as a sizable number of poor households remain excluded from the program even while many nonpoor households are included. Furthermore, the evaluation results indicate that the functioning of the current private-dealer-based foodgrain distribution system of the FFE program is not satisfactory.

This paper examines the impact of wheat transfers and cash incomes on wheat consumption and wheat markets. Using propensity score- matching techniques, the total marginal propensity to consume (MPC) for wheat is, on average, 0.33, ranging from essentially zero for Food For Work (a program with large transfers) to 0.51 for Food For Education. Econometric estimates indicate that the MPC for small wheat transfers to poor households is approximately 0.25, while the MPC for wheat out of cash income is near zero. This increase in demand for wheat reduces the potential price effect of three major targeted programs involving small rations (Food For Education, Vulnerable Group Development, and Vulnerable Group Feeding) by about one-third.

In 1998,“the flood of the century” covered more than two-thirds of Bangladesh, causing crop losses of 2.04 million tons of rice, an amount equal to 10.45 percent of target production in 1998/99. This flood threatened the health and lives of millions through food shortages caused by crop failure, loss of purchasing power, and the spread of water-borne disease. Yet very few flood-related deaths occurred, and reportedly none was due to food shortages. This report, based on data from a survey of 757 rural households in seven flood-affected regions (thanas) conducted in November and December 1998 and on analysis of secondary data on food grain markets, describes how Government of Bangladesh policy, well-functioning private markets, household coping strategies, and donor and NGO interventions combined to avert a major food crisis. To further enhance its food security, Bangladesh needs continued investments in agricultural research, extension, roads, electricity and other rural infrastructure, policies promoting efficient markets, and programs to provide targeted transfers and credit to poor households.

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between commodity prices and wages in the rural labor markets of a developing country (i.e., Bangladesh). Given its basis on a theoretical justification for hysteresis, this empirical study provides a more complete method for investigating labor market hysteresis than previous research.