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土砂災害予測に関する研究集会, 防災科学技術研究所和達記念ホール, 平成 29 年 12 月 7 ～ 8 日, 防災科学技術研究所

For these last decades, few subjects of the geology of the engineer have drawn the attention of the scientific community as much as those dealing of the natural hazards and more particularly with large-scale gravitational instabilities known as DSGSD (Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation) and DSL (Deep Seated Landslide). Based on few cases study on a natural scale (dating and recent monitoring), short term temporal dynamics remains one of their least studied aspects today. We made the choice of the Cristallère massif as an example. It is located in Upper Aspe Valley of the Pyrenees (Béarn region). The Cristallère DSL was recently identified and analyzed through two dating methods.On the basis of this work, our first approach consists in assessing short term temporal dynamics of these slopes movements on various scales and with various methods of satellites positioning (GPS and GLONASS constellations): multistation positioning RGP (Permanent Geodetic Network in France), statics geodetic with pivot and fast static with pivot. We insist in this work, given the original results obtained, on the interest of the differential GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) with a pivot which must be geographically close to the observations to be carried out in order to ensure sufficient accuracy (cm).Observations and exploitation of drone digital elevation models of the site from aerial surveys at different scales obtained with a “flying wing” are the second approach to this research work. They complete the mapping of the site and demonstrate the existence of a DSGSD based on a high resolution and high precision geomorphometric characterization (cm); they make it possible to refine the delimitation of the Cristallère DSL and its most active area (Pène du Thès) and the Peilhou DSL.In addition to these two complementary approaches, a geological and geophysical survey (structural geology measurements, electrical resistivity tomographies and electromagnetic profiles Very Low Frequency surveys) and an analysis of the available data on the structures present in the unstable slope, such as the large diameter underground water pipe for the hydroelectric plant of Baralet and the former railway tunnel of Peilhou. The combined use of these three approaches confirms that the deep movements of the Cristallère massif are still active with proven seismic forcing: awareness of the potential role taken by the DSGSD is then fundamental. Thus, all the existing structures in the massif or the projects on this site (new constructions or rehabilitation of old structures) have to consider the existence of a slow and gradual change of the entire massif (DSGSD). Moreover, the methodology developed in this work is intended to be general. It also makes possible to monitor and follow, in the short and medium term, all types of ground movement, in particular landslides or rockslides, deep or superficial, slow or fast.; Depuis ces dernières décennies, peu de sujets de la géologie de l’ingénieur ont attiré autant l’attention de la communauté scientifique que ceux traitant des risques naturels et plus particulièrement des instabilités gravitaires de grandes ampleurs reconnues sous les termes de DSGSD (Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation) et de DSL (Deep Seated Landslide). Basée sur un nombre limité de cas d’étude à l’échelle naturelle (couplage datation et surveillance récente), la dynamique temporelle à court terme reste l’un de leurs aspects les moins étudiés aujourd’hui. Nous avons choisi l’exemple du massif de la Cristallère, situé en haute Vallée d’Aspe dans les Pyrénées béarnaises, où le DSL de la Cristallère a été récemment identifié et analysé à partir de deux méthodes de datation.Dans la continuité de ce travail, notre première approche consiste à évaluer la dynamique temporelle à court terme des mouvements de ce versant à différentes échelles et à partir de différentes méthodes de positionnement par satellites (constellations GPS et GLONASS) : positionnement multistations RGP (Réseau Géodésique Permanent), statique géodésique avec pivot et statique rapide avec pivot. Nous insistons dans ce travail, compte tenu des résultats originaux obtenus, sur l’intérêt du différentiel GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) avec un pivot qui se doit d’être proche géographiquement des observations à mener afin d’assurer une précision suffisante (de l’ordre du cm).Les observations et l'exploitation des modèles numériques de terrain issues des relevés aériens à différentes échelles obtenus avec un drone du type « aile volante » constituent la deuxième approche de ce travail de recherche. Elles viennent compléter la cartographie du site et démontrer l’existence d’un DSGSD à partir d’une caractérisation géomorphométrique haute résolution et haute précision (de l’ordre du cm également) ; elles permettent d’affiner la délimitation du DSL de la Cristallère et de sa zone la plus active (Pène du Thès) et du DSL du Peilhou.À ces deux approches complémentaires (combinaison de données tridimensionnelles ponctuelles et surfaciques), s’ajoutent préalablement un relevé de terrain géologique etgéophysique (mesures structurales, tomographies de résistivités électriques et profils électromagnétiques Very Low Frequency) ainsi qu’une analyse des archives disponibles sur les ouvrages présents dans le versant instable, tels que la galerie drainante de la centrale hydroélectrique du Baralet et l’ancien tunnel ferroviaire du Peilhou.L’utilisation combinée de ces trois approches confirme que les mouvements profonds du massif de la Cristallère sont encore actifs avec un forçage sismique avéré : la prise de conscience du rôle que peut jouer le DSGSD est tout aussi fondamentale. Ainsi tous les ouvrages existants dans le massif, ou les projets d’aménagement ou de réhabilitation sur ce site doivent considérer l’existence d’une déstructuration, lente et progressive de l’ensemble du massif (DSGSD). Par ailleurs, la méthodologie développée dans ce travail se veut générale et peut être utilisée pour surveiller et suivre, à court et moyen terme, tous types de mouvement de terrain, et en particulier les glissements de terrain ou rocheux, profonds ou superficiels, lents ou rapides.

In the present work, the case of the Cármenes del Mar resort (Granada, Spain) is shown. It can be considered one of the most extreme examples on the Mediterranean coast of severe pathologies associated with urban development on coastal landslides. The resort, with 416 dwellings, was partially built on a deep-seated landslide which affects a soft formation composed of dark graphite schists. In November 2015, the City Council officially declared a state of emergency in the resort and 24 dwellings have already been evacuated. We have used two remote sensing techniques to monitor the landslide with the aim of identifying and measuring a wide range of displacements rates (from mm/year to m/year): (1) PSInSAR, exploiting 25 ENVISAT SAR images acquired from May 2003 to December 2009, and (2) photogrammetry, considering the output from two Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) flights made in June 2015 and January 2016 and the outdated photos from a conventional flight in 2008. The relationship between the geology of the site, data from PS deformation measurements, building displacements, rainfall and damage observed and their temporal occurrence allows a better understanding of the landslide kinematics and both the spatial and temporal evolution of the instability. Results indicate building displacements of up to 1.92 m in 8 years, a clear lithological control in the spatial distribution of damage and a close relationship between the most damaging events and water recharge episodes (rainy events and leaks from swimming pools and the water supply network). This work emphasises the need to incorporate geohazards into urban planning, including policies to predict, prepare for and prevent this type of phenomenon. © 2016, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

This study focuses on evaluating the potential of ALOS/PALSAR time-series data to analyze the activation of deep-seated landslides in the foothill zone of the high mountain Alai range in the southern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan). Most previous field-based landslide investigations have revealed that many landslides have indicators for ongoing slow movements in the form of migrating and newly developing cracks. L-band ALOS/PALSAR data for the period between 2007 and 2010 are available for the 484 km2 area in this study. We analyzed these data using the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) time-series technique to assess the surface deformation related to the activation of landslides. We observed up to ±17 mm/year of LOS velocity deformation rates, which were projected along the local steepest slope and resulted in velocity rates of up to −63 mm/year. The obtained rates indicate very slow movement of the deep-seated landslides during the observation time. We also compared these movements with precipitation and earthquake records. The results suggest that the deformation peaks correlate with rainfall in the 3 preceding months and with an earthquake event. Overall, the results of this study indicated the great potential of L-band InSAR time series analysis for efficient spatiotemporal identification and monitoring of slope activations in this region of high landslide activity in Southern Kyrgyzstan.

Pore water pressure build-up by recharge of underground hydrosystems is one of the main triggering factors ofdeep-seated landslides. Consequently, the characterization of landslide deformation mechanisms requires athorough knowledge of the hydrogeological processes triggering the destabilization. Anisotropic andheterogeneous media combined with landslide deformation render classical hydrogeological investigationsunsuitable. Hydro-mechanical processes which lead to slope failure of deep-seated landslides are complex andare influenced by the evolution of the landslide deformation through time. This thesis aims at improving theunderstanding of the relationships between precipitation and displacement velocity based on the study of theSéchilienne deep-seated landslide. A time-related monitoring of natural and artificial tracers allows to define aconceptual groundwater flow model despite a limited number of hydrogeological points of interest. Fluid porepressures are rarely measured on landslide sites and, instead the groundwater recharge is generally used as themost relevant parameter. A parsimonious, yet robust, guideline workflow to calculate time series of groundwaterrecharge is developed. Based on the conceptual groundwater flow model and the recharge calculation, a waveletanalysis coupled to a numerical model integrating time-dependent parameters allows to characterize therelationship between precipitation and displacement velocity and to simulate the creep deformation resulting ofindirect hydro-mechanical coupling (multi-year trend of displacement velocities). The characterization of thehydrogeological processes controlling the destabilization allowed to define a statistical rainfall threshold basedon an innovative multi-dimensional approach.; L’eau, par l’intermédiaire de la pression de fluides, est un phénomène déclencheur majeur de la déstabilisation des mouvements de terrain profonds. En conséquence, la caractérisation des mécanismes de déformation nécessite une bonne compréhension des processus hydrogéologiques contrôlant la déstabilisation. Les milieux fissurés et de surcroit les milieux instables présentent de fortes hétérogénéités, ce qui rend les études hydrogéologiques classiques peu adaptées. De plus, les mouvements de terrain profonds présentent des relations hydromécaniques complexes avec des évolutions significatives dépendantes du temps (déformation de type fluage). Cette thèse s’attache à caractériser les relations précipitations-déplacement du mouvement de terrain profond de Séchilienne. Un suivi saisonnier de traceurs naturels et artificiels a permis de définir un schéma conceptuel d’écoulement de l’eau souterraine sur l’ensemble du massif malgré un nombre limité de points d’intérêt hydrogéologiques. Les données de pression de fluides étant rarement mesurées, les paramètres indirects, tels que la recharge, sont souvent les seules données hydrogéologiques qui permettent de caractériser la relation précipitations-déstabilisation. Une méthode d’estimation de la recharge basée sur un calcul de bilan du sol a été développée afin d’estimer la recharge avec précision. En se basant sur le schéma conceptuel d’écoulement et le calcul de la recharge, une analyse en ondelettes couplée à un modèle numérique a permis de caractériser la relation précipitations-vitesse de déplacement. Cette modélisation tient compte de paramètres dépendant du temps et permet de simuler une déformation de type fluage (tendance pluriannuelle des vitesses de déplacement), conséquence des couplages hydro- mécaniques indirects. La caractérisation des processus hydrogéologiques contrôlant la déstabilisation a permis de définir un seuil statistique d’activation de la déstabilisation, basé sur une approche multi-dimensionnelle innovante.

The Trafoi rockslide is very similar to the Val Pola landslide before it evolved in a catastrophic rock avalanche in 1987. The Trafoi rockslide was recognized and mapped on the basis of geomorphic evidences such as double crests and detachment niches/scarps as well as geologic proxies such as gravitational offset of distinctive bedrock levels and trenching and fracturing of rock masses. In order to assess the activity status of the landslide, not discernible from field evidences only, periodic GPS monitoring on 11 benchmarks was started in 2007 and continued until 2010 with static-rapid measurements repeated three to four times per year. Results have shown that portions of the rockslide move at some cm/year rate. This highlights the potential for a possible evolution of the mass movement and the necessity of hazard scenarios mapping and run-out modelling. In order to define volume of possible detachments scenarios, digital aerial photo-interpretation were used together with High Resolution DEM and information collected from geomechanical field survey. The Trafoi rockslide is among the test sites of the ongoing European project “Monitor II”, that is proposing the usage of hot spots in the process domain as a practical mean to describe hazard scenarios. Following such approach, simplified hazard and risk scenarios were schematized on the basis of the data collected with monitoring and analysis of ongoing and potential slope instability processes.