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This paper assesses the learning potential of dedicated wood production systems to boost yields and reduce production costs. In particular, the paper analyses past trends and provides a future outlook of developments in dedicated wood production for three cases: eucalyptus production in Brazil, poplar production in Italy and willow production in Sweden. A main objective of this paper is to evaluate the extent to which experience curves can be devised for conventional woody plantation systems, and whether these can also be applied to short rotation cropping (SRC) production systems. For current average SRC production systems, Italian poplar shows the highest cost at 5.5 h GJ1 followed by Swedish willow at 4.4 h GJ1 and Brazilian eucalyptus is produced to the lowest costs at 2.8 h GJ1 . It was assessed to what extent production costs can be reduced per step in the production cycle and how this affects the minimum cost levels that can ultimately be achieved. Ultimate cost reduction could lead to delivered costs of 2.2 h GJ1 for poplar, 1.9 h GJ1 for willow and 1.9 h GJ1 for eucalyptus on better quality lands. Based on historic cost data and production trends, experience curves were applied providing progress ratios for poplar in Italy and eucalyptus in Brazil. Brazilian eucalyptus production follows a steeper slope (63–73%) than poplar in Italy (71–78%). The extent to, and rate at, which cost reductions can occur within the next 20 years were evaluated by combining current costs, minimum cost levels and progress ratios with ranges in European and global biomass demand projections. This shows that, at the assumed growth rates for biomass production in Europe and for global production, minimum cost levels can be reached within the next two decades for all cases.

Fossil resources dominate the global energy system today which cannot be sustained indefinitely. Bioenergy use can meet a large share of future energy supply sustainably. For example, it can substitute fossil fuels including petroleum, and when sustainably produced, bioenergy avoids greenhouse gas emissions. However, with the recent increase of modern bioenergy use several drawbacks have become apparent that may lead to negative ecological impacts. Europe plays an important role in the further sustainable development of bioenergy due to its ambitious renewable energy policies and its state-of-the-art agricultural sector. The main objective of this thesis is to evaluate development pathways for bioenergy in Europe by assessing preconditions for its development, an economic outlook for such development and an assessment of its environmental implications. The technical European biomass potential has a substantial potential to contribute to Europe’s energy consumption. Energy crop production on European croplands and grasslands supplemented with agricultural and forestry residues offers an ultimate technical potential of 27.7 EJ y-1. These findings were based on the assumption that agricultural land needs for future domestic food production decrease as productivities per hectare increase. Central and Eastern Europe pose the more attractive region with relatively high potentials and low costs. In European agriculture, it is possible to combine large-scale biomass production with food production sustained at current levels, without direct or indirect land-use changes and while accomplishing significant net cumulative greenhouse gas emission reductions when both bioenergy and agricultural production are considered. To accomplish this situation two preconditions need to be met: a gradual intensification of food production and implementation of structural improvements to agricultural management. Based on the current economic performance and future prospects for feedstocks and conversion technologies for biofuel production, simulations indicate that advanced second generation biofuels may surpass first generation biofuels somewhere in the next two decades. To establish a sizeable second generation biofuels industry a sufficiently large resource base of lignocelluloses feedstocks is required. To expand beyond residues and wastes, short rotation crops form a particular interesting feedstock category, that is optimized for fast growth and high yields. Based on observed cost reductions in recent decades for the cultivation of poplar in Italy and eucalyptus in Brazil ranges in progress ratios were found of respectively 63–73% and 71–78%. Similar ratio’s may apply to willow production in Europe. To expand biomass production responsibly in Europe policy makers and the agricultural sector face the challenge to stimulate efficient bioenergy applications and rationalize agriculture sustainably, e.g. by deployment of sustainability criteria. Integration of bioenergy production in the existing agriculture can realize strong synergy between a sustainable energy supply and the environment. This pleas for an integral European vision on sustainable energy and agriculture.

This paper discusses if, how fast and to what maximum yield improvements can be realized in Europe in the coming decades and what the opportunities and relations are to biomass production. The starting point for the analysis is the historic context of developments in European agriculture over the past five decades. Historic developments in European crop and animal protein productivity between 1961 and 2007 show an average mean annual growth rate of 1.6%. In relative terms developments are slower on average in the Netherlands and France at 1.0% y −1 than in Poland and Ukraine (USSR) at 2.2% y −1 . In absolute figures, however, growth has been considerable in WEC and modest in the CEEC. Yield trends further show that significant yield changes can be realized over a short period of time. Positive growth rates of 3–5% y −1 were reached in several countries and for several crops in several decades. In Eastern European countries during their transition in the 1990s, negative growth rates as low as −7% y −1 occurred. Outcomes suggest that productivity levels can be actively steered rather than being just the result of autonomous developments. Current yield gaps differ greatly between Western Europe (France −1 . High yielding lignocellulosic crops could double this potential. It is concluded that the potential to free-up agricultural lands for the production of bioenergy crops in Europe is considerable. The degree to and the pace at which yields develop will determine how much of the potential is opened up. Agricultural policy and technological development are key to open up the potential.

The current hot debate on biofuels calls for a balanced and realistic long-term strategy for biofuels. The REFUEL project provides several ingredients for such a strategy. Analyses in this project indicate that domestically produced biofuels can cover a significant share of EU fuel demand in the coming decades, with the EU-12 new member states and Ukraine as most promising regions. This potential can be realised with residual streams and on existing agricultural land, without conversion of e.g. nature reserves. Second generation biofuels are essential for the long-term success of biofuels due to their superior performance in many ways. But generally, the key challenge for the near future would be how to enhance the development of biofuels in a responsible way, i.e. stimulating the production chains with the best performance, and preventing negative impacts e.g., by paying careful attention to possible system impacts of biofuel production such as indirect land use changes and rising food prices. Finally, 2nd generation biofuels require specific policy: the precursor role of 1st generation is overrated, both in technical terms as well as in their role as market precursors. When it comes to synergies, 2nd generation biofuels might benefit more from other developments in the energy sector, such as initiatives in co-firing of biomass for (heat and) power, than from 1st generation biofuels, also because of the public resistance that the latter induce.

A key aspect in modeling the (future) competition between biofuels is the way in which production cost developments are computed. The objective of this study was threefold: (i) to construct a (endogenous) relation between cost development and cumulative production (ii) to implement technological learning based on both engineering study insights and an experience curve approach, and (iii) to investigate the impact of different technological learning assumptions on the market diffusion patterns of different biofuels. The analysis was executed with the European biofuel model BioTrans, which computes the least cost biofuel route. The model meets an increasing demand, reaching a 25% share of biofuels of the overall European transport fuel demand by 2030. Results show that 1st generation biodiesel is the most cost competitive fuel, dominating the early market. With increasing demand, modestly productive oilseed crops become more expensive rapidly, providing opportunities for advanced biofuels to enter the market. While biodiesel supply typically remains steady until 2030, almost all additional yearly demands are delivered by advanced biofuels, supplying up to 60% of the market by 2030. Sensitivity analysis shows that (i) overall increasing investment costs favour biodiesel production, (ii) separate gasoline and diesel subtargets may diversify feedstock production and technology implementation, thus limiting the risk of failure and preventing lock-in and (iii) the moment of an advanced technology's commercial market introduction determines, to a large degree, its future chances for increasing market share.

The objective of this study is to assess the European (EU27+ and Ukraine) cost and supply potential for biomass resources. Three methodological steps can be distinguished (partly based on studies explained elsewhere in this volume) (i) an evaluation of the available ‘surplus’ land, (ii) a modeled productivity and (iii) an economic assessment for 13 typical bioenergy crops. Results indicate that the total available land for bioenergy crop production – following a ‘food first’ paradigm – could amount to 900 000 km2 by 2030. Three scenarios were constructed that take into account different development directions and rates of change, mainly for the agricultural productivity of food production. Feedstock supply of dedicated bioenergy crop estimates varies between 1.7 and 12.8 EJ y−1. In addition, agricultural residues and forestry residues can potentially add to this 3.1–3.9 EJ y−1 and 1.4–5.4 EJ y−1 respectively. First generation feedstock supply is available at production costs of 5–15 € GJ−1 compared to 1.5–4.5 € GJ−1 for second generation feedstocks. Costs for agricultural residues are 1–7 € GJ−1 and forestry residues 2–4 € GJ−1. Large variation exists in biomass production potential and costs between European regions, 280 (NUTS2) regions specified. Regions that stand out with respect to high potential and low costs are large parts of Poland, the Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine. In Western Europe, France, Spain and Italy are moderately attractive following the low cost high potential criterion.

Europe's agricultural land (including Ukraine) comprise of 164 million hectares of cultivated land and 76 million hectares of permanent pasture. A “food first” paradigm was applied in the estimations of land potentially available for the production of biofuel feedstocks, without putting at risk food supply or nature conservation. Three land conversion scenarios were formulated: (i) A base scenario, that reflects developments under current policy settings and respects current trends in nature conservation and organic farming practices, by assuming moderate overall yield increases; (ii) an environment oriented scenario with higher emphasis on sustainable farming practices and maintenance of biodiversity; and (iii) an energy oriented scenario considering more substantial land use conversions including the use of pasture land. By 2030 some 44–53 million hectares of cultivated land could be used for bioenergy feedstock production. The energy oriented scenario includes an extra 19 million hectares pasture land for feedstocks for second-generation biofuel production chains. Available land is foremost to be found in Eastern Europe, where substantial cultivated areas can be freed up through sustainable gains in yield in the food and feed sector. Agricultural residues of food and feed crops may provide an additional source for biofuel production. When assuming that up to 50% of crop residues can be used without risks for agricultural sustainability, we estimate that up to 246 Mt agricultural residues could be available for biofuel production, comparable to feedstock plantations of some 15–20 million hectares

This year we celebrate the 20th anniversary of the department of Science, Technology and Society (STS) of Universiteit Utrecht. However, our roots go back to the seventies when each university in the Netherlands decided to establish Science & Society groups which should play a role in (1) preparing students for later jobs and activities in society, (2) enhancing awareness about the social responsibility of scientists, and (3) creating insight in the connection and relations between different sciences.

The international biomass trade in the Netherlands has been growing strongly over the last few years, but information on the corresponding volumes, origins and prices is barely available. The objectives of this paper are to quantify imported and exported biomass volumes and origins, and identify drivers and barriers behind the trade flows. Data collection was based on existing statistics and information obtained from biomass traders and end-users. Net import of biomass for energy purposes has been increasing from 2.5 PJ in 2003 to above 20 PJ in 2005–2006, consisting mainly of vegetable oils, agricultural residues and wood and wood-derived fuels, used to almost 100% in Dutch coal- and gas-fired power plants. Biomass exports (mainly of waste wood and construction wood) were high in 2004 (an estimated 13.2 PJ) but have probably strongly declined by the end of 2006, while (re)-export of wood pellets has been increasing in recent years, estimated at 5–7 PJ in 2005–2006. The main driver for biomass imports were the Dutch MEP feed-in tariff for electricity from biomass, while difficulties to obtain permits to co-fire (contaminated) waste wood were a main driver for the export of biomass. Rapidly changing feed-in tariff levels and support systems were seen as one of the largest barriers for the development of a stable biomass trade. Other major issues include concerns regarding the sustainability of biomass production, competition with biomass applications for food and fodder and import restrictions. Major additional imports of liquid transportation fuels are expected until 2010, which could possibly increase the import of biomass to over 50 PJ.

Hydrogen onboard storage technologies form an important factor in the overall performance of hydrogen fuelled transportation, both energetically and economically. Particularly, advanced storage options such as metal hydrides and carbon nanotubes are often hinted favourable to conventional, liquid and pressurized, storage options. This study assesses the technical and economic performance of four onboard storage technologies in a well-to-wheel assessment. It does so for centralized and onsite hydrogen production scenarios with gaseous pipeline and liquid truck distributed hydrogen. Energetically, centralized production and liquefaction outperforms onsite production and liquefaction by 20% on the average primary energy input, despite the need of pipeline or over the road distribution. The gaseous handling on the filling station performs better with an average driving energy use of 0.11 MJp/km compared to 0.15 MJp/km for liquid handling. The advanced onboard storage technologies perform better by 22% than the conventional storage technologies on primary energy input in the chain. The average driving cost for gaseous and liquid onboard storage are 53% above the gasoline reference cost of 21euroct/km and the advanced onboard storage technologies as much as 98%, almost double the reference cost. The car expenditure for a fuel cell driven car compared to an internal combustion engine driven car is for a large part responsible for this difference. Advanced onboard storage technologies thus perform better than conventional onboard storage technologies energetically albeit to higher cost.

Irrigation farmers in the lower reaches of the Vaal and Riet Rivers are experiencing substantial yield reductions in certain crops and more profitable crops have been withdrawn from production, hypothesised, as a result of generally poor but especially fluctuating water quality. In this paper secondary data is used in a linear programming model to test this hypothesis by calculating the potential loss in farm level optimal returns. The model is static with a time frame of two production seasons. Linear crop-water quality production functions (Ayers & Westcot, 1983; adapted from Maas & Hoffmann, 1977) are used to calculate net returns for the eight most common crops grown. Results show optimal enterprise composition under various water quality situations. Leaching is justified financially and there is a strong motivation for a change in the current water pricing system. SALMOD (Salinity and Leaching Model for Optimal irrigation Development) is the Excel Solver model used to derive the preliminary results, but is currently being developed further in GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System). Useful results have already been obtained on which this paper is based. The ultimate aim for SALMOD is a mathematical model using dynamic optimisation, simulation and risk modelling techniques to aid in whole farm and system level management decisions to ensure sustainable irrigation agriculture under stochastic river water quality conditions.

Macroeconomic policy should be guided by a long-term strategy based on the needs of the country. This is an essential message of the term ‘sustainable development’. It is, therefore, inevitable that the country’s natural and environmental resources should be considered when shaping such a policy. Current macroeconomic policies in South Africa have tended to ignore, rather than incorporate, these issues. This paper provides a framework for integrating environmental values into macroeconomic policy-making in South Africa. This is done by focusing on 1) the different theories on the linkage between the economy and the environment, 2) conceptualising the input of environmental values in the macroeconomic policy arena and 3) making recommendations for incorporating environmental factors into South African macroeconomic policy.