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Documenting the seasonal temperature cycle constitutes an essential step toward mitigating risks associated with extreme weather events in a future warmer world. The mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago, featured global temperatures approximately 3°C above preindustrial levels. It represents an ideal period for directed paleoclimate reconstructions equivalent to model projections for 2100 under moderate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. Here, seasonal clumped isotope analyses of fossil mollusk shells from the North Sea are presented to test Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project 2 outcomes. Joint data and model evidence reveals enhanced summer warming (+4.3° ± 1.0°C) compared to winter (+2.5° ± 1.5°C) during the mPWP, equivalent to SSP2-4.5 outcomes for future climate. We show that Arctic amplification of global warming weakens mid-latitude summer circulation while intensifying seasonal contrast in temperature and precipitation, leading to an increased risk of summer heat waves and other extreme weather events in Europe’s future.

Bivalves record seasonal environmental changes in their shells, making them excellent climate archives. However, not every bivalve can be used for this end. The shells have to grow fast enough so that micrometre- to millimetre-sampling can resolve sub-annual changes. Here, we investigate whether the bivalve Angulus benedeni benedeni is suitable as a climate archive. For this, we use ca. 3-million-year-old specimens from the Piacenzian collected from a temporary outcrop in the Port of Antwerp area (Belgium). The subspecies is common in Pliocene North Sea basin deposits, but its lineage dates back to the late Oligocene and has therefore great potential as a high-resolution archive. A detailed assessment of the preservation of the shell material by micro-X-ray fluorescence, X-ray diffraction, and electron backscatter diffraction reveals that it is pristine and not affected by diagenetic processes. Oxygen isotope analysis and microscopy indicate that the species had a longevity of up to a decade or more and, importantly, that it grew fast and large enough so that seasonally resolved records across multiple years were obtainable from it. Clumped isotope analysis revealed a mean annual temperature of 13.5±3.8°C. The subspecies likely experienced slower growth during winter and thus may not have recorded temperatures year-round. This reconstructed mean annual temperature is 3.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial North Sea and in line with proxy and modelling data for this stratigraphic interval, further solidifying A. benedeni benedeni's use as a climate recorder. Our exploratory study thus reveals that Angulus benedeni benedeni fossils are indeed excellent climate archives, holding the potential to provide insight into the seasonality of several major climate events of the past ∼25 million years in northwestern Europe.

Introduction: Growth experiments present a powerful tool for determining the effect of environmental parameters on growth and carbonate composition in biogenic calcifiers. For successful proxy calibration and biomineralization studies, it is vital to identify volumes of carbonate precipitated by these organisms at precise intervals during the experiment. Here, we investigate the use of strontium labelling in mollusc growth experiments. Methods: Three bivalve species (Cerastoderma edule, Mytilus edulis and Ostrea edulis) were grown under monitored field conditions. The bivalves were regularly exposed to seawater with elevated concentrations of dissolved strontium chloride (SrCl2). In addition, the size of their shells was determined at various stages during the experiment using calliper measurements and digital photography. Trace element profiles were measured in cross sections through the shells of these molluscs using laser ablation ICPMS and XRF techniques. Results: Our results show that doses of dissolved strontium equivalent to 7-8 times the background marine value (~0.6 mmol/L) are sufficient to cause reproducible peaks in shell-incorporated strontium in C. edule and M. edulis shells. No negative effects were observed on shell calcification rates. Lower doses (3-5 times background values) resulted in less clearly identifiable peaks, especially in M. edulis. Strontium spiking labels in shells of O. edulis are more difficult to detect, likely due to their irregular growth. Discussion: Strontium spiking is a useful technique for creating time marks in cultured shells and a reproducible way to monitor shell size during the growing season while limiting physical disturbance of the animals. However, accurate reconstructions of growth rates at high temporal resolution require frequent spiking with high doses of strontium.

Estimates of global mean near-surface air temperature (global SAT) for the Cenozoic era rely largely on paleo-proxy data of deep-sea temperature (DST), with the assumption that changes in global SAT covary with changes in the global mean deep-sea temperature (global DST) and global mean sea-surface temperature (global SST). We tested the validity of this assumption by analyzing the relationship between global SST, SAT, and DST using 25 different model simulations from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project simulating the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) with varying CO2 levels. Similar to the modern situation, we find limited spatial variability in DST, indicating that local DST estimates can be regarded as a first order representative of global DST. In line with previously assumed relationships, linear regression analysis indicates that both global DST and SAT respond stronger to changes in atmospheric CO2 than global SST by a similar factor. Consequently, this model-based analysis validates the assumption that changes in global DST can be used to estimate changes in global SAT during the early Cenozoic. Paleo-proxy estimates of global DST, SST, and SAT during EECO show the best fit with model simulations with a 1,680 ppm atmospheric CO2 level. This matches paleo-proxies of EECO atmospheric CO2, indicating a good fit between models and proxy-data.

The chemical composition of mollusk shells is a useful tool in (paleo)climatology since it captures inter- and intra-annual variability in environmental conditions. Trace element and stable isotope analysis with improved sampling resolution now allows in situ determination of the composition of mollusk shell volumes precipitated at daily to sub-daily time intervals. Here, we discuss hourly resolved Mg / Ca, Mn / Ca, Sr / Ca, and Ba / Ca profiles measured by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma - mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) through shells of the photosymbiotic giant clams (Tridacna maxima, T. squamosa, and T. squamosina) and the non-photosymbiotic scallop Pecten maximus. Precise sclerochronological age models and spectral analysis allowed us to extract daily and tidal rhythms in the trace element composition of these shells. We find weak but statistically significant expressions of these periods and conclude that this cyclicity explains less than 10 % of the sub-annual variance in trace element profiles. Tidal and diurnal rhythms explain variability of, at most, 0.2 mmol mol-1 (similar to 10 % of mean value) in Mg / Ca and Sr / Ca, while ultradian Mn / Ca and Ba / Ca cyclicity has a median amplitude of less than 2 mu mol mol(-1) mol mol(-1) (similar to 40 % and 80 % of the mean of Mn / Ca and Ba / Ca, respectively). Daily periodicity in Sr / Ca and Ba / Ca is stronger in Tridacna than in Pecten, with Pecten showing stronger tidal periodicity. One T. squamosa specimen which grew under a sunshade exhibits among the strongest diurnal cyclicity. Daily cycles in the trace element composition of giant clams are therefore unlikely to be driven by variations in direct insolation but rather reflect an inherent biological rhythmic process affecting element incorporation. Finally, the large amount of short-term trace element variability unexplained by tidal and daily rhythms highlights the dominance of aperiodic processes in mollusk physiology and/or environmental condition