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The expected increase in rates of sea level rise during the 21st century and beyond may cause barrier islands to drown. Barrier drowning occurs due to a sediment imbalance induced by sea level rise, causing inlets to open and expand. It is still unclear how fast barrier islands can drown. To gain insight into the morphodynamics of barrier systems subject to sea level rise, we here present results obtained with a novel barrier island exploratory model, BarrieR Inlet Environment-Drowning, that considers inlet expansion beyond equilibrium size. We quantify how much of a barrier island chain is drowned by calculating the fraction of its length that is below mean sea level due to sea level rise. Results show that barrier drowning is mostly sensitive to the wave height and the rate of sea level rise. In the model, it takes 100s of years for barrier islands to start drowning in response to high rates of sea level rise (more than 5 mm/yr, for a typical coastal environment). This lag in barrier response is caused by a gradual decrease in the sand volume of the barrier. Higher rates of sea level rise cause earlier and more severe barrier drowning. Modeled barrier systems that face higher waves undergo more frequent inlet closures that lower the rate of drowning, but they also have a deeper shoreface that increases the rate of drowning. In model simulations, the latter process dominates over the former when sea level rise rates exceed 5 mm/yr. Model results fairly agree with available field data.

Determining the statistical properties of salt intrusion in estuaries on sub-tidal time scales is a substantial challenge in environmental modeling. To study these properties, we here extend an idealized deterministic salt intrusion model to a stochastic one by including a stochastic model of the river discharge. In the river discharge model, two types of stochastic forcing are used: one independent (additive noise) and one dependent (multiplicative noise) on the river discharge state. Each type of forcing results in a non-Gaussian response in the salt intrusion length, which we consider here as the distance of the 2 psu isohaline contour to the estuary mouth. The salt intrusion model including both types of stochastic forcing in the river discharge provides a satisfactory explanation of the multi-year statistics of observed salt intrusion lengths in the San Francisco Bay estuary, in particular for the skewness of its probability density function.

Freshwater pulses (during which river discharge is much higher than average) occur in many estuaries and strongly impact estuarine functioning. To gain insight into the estuarine salinity response to freshwater pulses, an idealized model is presented. With respect to earlier models on the spatiotemporal behavior of salinity in estuaries, it includes additional processes that provide a more detailed vertical structure of salinity. Simulation of an observed salinity response to a freshwater pulse in the Guadalquivir Estuary (Spain) shows that this is important to adequately simulate the salinity structure. The model is used to determine the dependency of the estuarine salinity response to freshwater pulses for different background discharge, tides, and different intensities and durations of the pulses. Results indicate that the change in salt intrusion length due to a freshwater pulse is proportional to the ratio between peak and background river discharge and depends linearly on the duration of the pulse if there is no equilibration during the pulse. The adjustment time, which is the time it takes for the estuary to reach equilibrium after an increase in river discharge, scales with the ratio of the change in salt intrusion length and the peak river discharge. The recovery time, that is, the time it takes for the estuary to reach equilibrium after a decrease in river discharge, does not depend on the amount of decrease in salt intrusion length caused by the pulse. The strength of the tides is of minor importance to the salt dynamics during and after the pulse.

Net water transport (NWT) in estuaries is important for, for example, salt intrusion and sediment dynamics. While NWT is only determined by river runoff in single channels, in estuarine networks, it results from a complex interplay between tides and residual flows. This study aims to disentangle the various contributions of these physical drivers to NWT in estuarine networks and investigate the sensitivities of NWT to variable forcing conditions, interventions, and sea level rise (SLR). To this end, a processes-based perturbative network model is developed, which accounts for the vertical flow structure to resolve density-driven flow driven by a vertically uniform along-channel salinity gradient. Other identified drivers are river discharge and three tidal rectification processes: Stokes transport and its return flow, momentum advection, and velocity-depth asymmetry. The model is applied to the Yangtze Estuary. NWT due to tidal rectifications and density-driven flow can be comparable to river discharge. Specifically in the North Branch, the direction of NWT may differ from the direction of river discharge. Varying river discharge mainly affects NWT as tide-river interaction is weak and density-driven flow is shown to be insensitive to salt intrusion. Conversely, variations in tidal amplitude strongly affect NWT related to tidal rectification and density-driven flow. The deepening (narrowing) of one channel (Deep Waterway Project), affected the NWT mostly through the density-driven flow (advection). Furthermore, NWT distribution in the Yangtze is insensitive to SLR up to 2 m because the effects of SLR on transport due to different drivers compensate each other.

Net water transport (NWT) in estuaries is important for, for example, salt intrusion and sediment dynamics. While NWT is only determined by river runoff in single channels, in estuarine networks, it results from a complex interplay between tides and residual flows. This study aims to disentangle the various contributions of these physical drivers to NWT in estuarine networks and investigate the sensitivities of NWT to variable forcing conditions, interventions, and sea level rise (SLR). To this end, a processes-based perturbative network model is developed, which accounts for the vertical flow structure to resolve density-driven flow driven by a vertically uniform along-channel salinity gradient. Other identified drivers are river discharge and three tidal rectification processes: Stokes transport and its return flow, momentum advection, and velocity-depth asymmetry. The model is applied to the Yangtze Estuary. NWT due to tidal rectifications and density-driven flow can be comparable to river discharge. Specifically in the North Branch, the direction of NWT may differ from the direction of river discharge. Varying river discharge mainly affects NWT as tide-river interaction is weak and density-driven flow is shown to be insensitive to salt intrusion. Conversely, variations in tidal amplitude strongly affect NWT related to tidal rectification and density-driven flow. The deepening (narrowing) of one channel (Deep Waterway Project), affected the NWT mostly through the density-driven flow (advection). Furthermore, NWT distribution in the Yangtze is insensitive to SLR up to 2 m because the effects of SLR on transport due to different drivers compensate each other., Mathematical Physics

An estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) results from various subtidal sediment transport mechanisms related to, e.g., river, tides, and density gradients, which have been extensively analysed in single-channel estuaries. However, ETMs have also been found in estuaries composed of multiple interconnected tidal channels, where the water and suspended fine sediments are exchanged at the junctions with possible occurrence of sediment overspill. The overall aim of this study is to understand the processes that determine the ETM dynamics in such channel networks. Specifically, focusing on the ETMs formation due to sediment transport by river flow and density-driven flow, the dependence of ETM locations in an idealised three-channel network on fluvial sediment input and the local deepening and narrowing of a seaward channel is investigated. It is found that the ETM dynamics in channels of a network is coupled, and hence, changes in one channel affect the ETM pattern in all channels. Sensitivity results show that, keeping river discharge fixed, a larger fluvial sediment input leads to the upstream shift of ETMs and an increase in the overall sediment concentration. Both deepening or narrowing of a seaward channel may influence the ETMs in the entire network. Furthermore, the effect of either deepening or narrowing of a seaward channel on the ETM locations in the network depends on the system geometry and the dominant hydrodynamic conditions. Therefore, the response of the ETM location to local geometric changes is explained by analysing the dominant sediment transport mechanisms. In addition to the convergence of sediment transport mechanisms in single-estuarine channels, ETM dynamics in networks is found to be strongly affected by net exchange of sediment between the branches of a network. We find that considering the sensitivity of net sediment transport to geometric changes is needed to understand the changing ETM dynamics observed in a real estuarine network., Mathematical Physics

Estuaries are often characterised by a complex network of branching channels, in which the water motion is primarily driven by tides and fresh water discharge. For both scientific reasons and management purposes, it is important to gain more fundamental knowledge about the hydrodynamics in such networks, as well as their implications for turbidity and ecological functioning. A generic 2DV estuarine network model is developed to study tides and river water transport and to understand the dependence of their along-channel and vertical structure on forcings, geometry characteristics and sea level changes. The model is subsequently applied to the Yangtze Estuary to investigate tides and the distribution of river water over channels during dry and wet season, spring tide, as well as prior to and after the formation of Hengsha Passage and the construction of the Deep Waterway Project and sea level rise. Increasing river discharge enhances the friction for tides by increasing both internal and bottom stresses. Changes in tidal forcing are correlated with the friction for both tide and river. A shortcut channel reduces the water level difference in adjacent channels, as well as tidal amplitudes difference. Sea level rise results in larger friction parameters and faster propagation of tides. The distribution of river water transport is hardly affected by above mentioned changes. Model results and current vertical structure are consistent with observations., Mathematical Physics

Sand ridges, with length scales of several km, are prominent features of the seafloor landscape of many sandy continental shelves. Knowledge about the extent to which these ridges influence the large-scale (i.e., decadal and kilometer scales) morphodynamic evolution of the adjacent shoreline and vice versa (shelf-shoreline morphodynamic coupling) is limited. The present work aims at quantifying this coupling by using a coupled nonlinear shelf-shoreline model forced by tides and different wave conditions. Model results show that the presence of sand ridges on the shelf creates longshore non-uniform wave patterns, which act as a forcing template for the morphodynamic development of the shoreline. The shelf-shoreline coupling primarily works one way, meaning that the morphodynamic evolution of the shelf affects the evolution of the shoreline. When wave propagation is predominantly aligned with the long axis of the shelf ridges, the forced shoreline undulations are so prominent, that they affect the shelf morphology (significant two-way coupling). Moreover, for those waves, the longshore spacing of the ridges is strongly imprinted on the shoreline morphology. Weaker shoreline undulations develop for waves that propagate more across the ridges and the weakest for time-varying wave conditions with large variability in their angles of propagation. Model results compare fairly well with observations. Physical mechanisms underlying the different morphodynamic responses of the coupled shelf-shoreline system to different wave conditions are also given., Postprint (author's final draft)