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Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from small inland waters are disproportionately large. Climate warming is expected to enhance their emissions and favour dominance of algae and free-floating plants at the expense of submerged plants. The different impacts these functional plant types have on their environment may have far-reaching consequences for freshwater GHG emissions. Here, we show that dominance of different functional plant types strongly controls the effect of experimental warming on GHG fluxes, mainly by modulating methane ebullition, an often-dominant GHG emission pathway. Specifically, we demonstrate that the response to experimental warming was strongest for free-floating and lowest for submerged plant-dominated systems. Importantly, our results suggest that anticipated shifts in plant type may increase total GHG emissions from shallow waters. This, together with the stronger warming-induced emission response, represents a so far overlooked positive climate feedback. Management strategies aimed at favouring submerged plant dominance may substantially mitigate GHG emissions.

For many, 2020 was a year of abrupt professional and personal change. For the aquatic sciences community, many were adapting to virtual formats for conducting and sharing science, while simultaneously learning to live in a socially distanced world. Understandably, the aquatic sciences community postponed or canceled most in‐person scientific meetings. Still, many scientific communities either transitioned annual meetings to a virtual format or inaugurated new virtual meetings. Fortunately, increased use of video conferencing platforms, networking and communication applications, and a general comfort with conducting science virtually helped bring the in‐person meeting experience to scientists worldwide. Yet, the transition to conducting science virtually revealed new barriers to participation whereas others were lowered. The combined lessons learned from organizing a meeting constitute a necessary knowledge base that will prove useful, as virtual conferences are likely to continue in some form. To concentrate and synthesize these experiences, we showcase how six scientific societies and communities planned, organized, and conducted virtual meetings in 2020. With this consolidated information in hand, we look forward to a future, where scientific meetings embrace a virtual component, so to as help make science more inclusive and global.

To determine the drivers of phytoplankton biomass, we collected standardized morphometric, physical, and biological data in 230 lakes across the Mediterranean, Continental, and Boreal climatic zones of the European continent. Multilinear regression models tested on this snapshot of mostly eutrophic lakes (median total phosphorus [TP] = 0.06 and total nitrogen [TN] = 0.7 mg L), and its subsets (2 depth types and 3 climatic zones), show that light climate and stratification strength were the most significant explanatory variables for chlorophyll a (Chl a) variance. TN was a significant predictor for phytoplankton biomass for shallow and continental lakes, while TP never appeared as an explanatory variable, suggesting that under high TP, light, which partially controls stratification strength, becomes limiting for phytoplankton development. Mediterranean lakes were the warmest yet most weakly stratified and had significantly less Chl a than Boreal lakes, where the temperature anomaly from the long-term average, during a summer heatwave was the highest (+4°C) and showed a significant, exponential relationship with stratification strength. This European survey represents a summer snapshot of phytoplankton biomass and its drivers, and lends support that light and stratification metrics, which are both affected by climate change, are better predictors for phytoplankton biomass in nutrient-rich lakes than nutrient concentrations and surface temperature.

Viruses are important drivers in the cycling of carbon and nutrients in aquatic ecosystems. Since viruses are obligate parasites, their production completely depends on growth and metabolism of hosts and therefore can be affected by climate change. Here, we investigated if warming (+4°C) can change the outcome of viral infections in a natural freshwater virus community over a 5‐month period in a mesocosm experiment. We monitored dynamics of viruses and potential hosts. Results show that warming significantly advanced the early summer peak of the virus community by 24 d, but neither affected viral peak abundances nor time‐integrated number of viruses present. Our results demonstrate that warming advances the timing of viruses in a natural community. Although warming may not necessarily result in a stronger viral control of bacterial and phytoplankton communities, our results suggest it can alter host population dynamics through advanced timing of infections, and thus timing of carbon and nutrient recycling.

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short‐term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well‐developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short‐ and long‐term. We summarize the current understanding of storm‐induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.

Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includes in-situ lake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment.

Litter decomposition is a vital part of the global carbon cycle as it determines not only the amount of carbon to be sequestered, but also how fast carbon re-enters the cycle. Freshwater systems play an active role in the carbon cycle as it receives, and decomposes, terrestrial litter material alongside decomposing aquatic plant litter. Decomposition of organic matter in the aquatic environment is directly controlled by water temperature and nutrient availability, which are continuously affected by global change. We adapted the Tea Bag Index (TBI), a highly standardized methodology for determining soil decomposition, for lakes by incorporating a leaching factor. By placing Lipton pyramid tea bags in the aquatic environment for 3 hours, we quantified the period of intense leaching which usually takes place prior to litter (tea) decomposition. Standard TBI methodology was followed after this step to determine how fast decomposition takes place (decomposition rate, k1) and how much of the material cannot be broken down and is thus sequestered (stabilization factor, S). A Citizen Science project was organized to test the aquatic TBI in 40 European lakes located in four climate zones, ranging from oligotrophic to hypereutrophic systems. We expected that warmer and/or eutrophic lakes would have a higher decomposition rate and a more efficient microbial community resulting in less tea material to be sequestered. The overall high decomposition rates (k1) found confirm the active role lakes play in the global carbon cycle. Across climate regions the lakes in the warmer temperate zone displayed a higher decomposition rate (k1) compared to the colder lakes in the continental and polar zones. Across trophic states, decomposition rates were higher in eutrophic lakes compared to oligotrophic lakes. Additionally, the eutrophic lakes showed a higher stabilization (S), thus a less efficient microbial community, compared to the oligotrophic lakes, although the variation within this g

Under ongoing climate change and increasing anthropogenic activity, which continuously challenge ecosystem resilience, an in-depth understanding of ecological processes is urgently needed. Lakes, as providers of numerous ecosystem services, face multiple stressors that threaten their functioning. Harmful cyanobacterial blooms are a persistent problem resulting from nutrient pollution and climate-change induced stressors, like poor transparency, increased water temperature and enhanced stratification. Consistency in data collection and analysis methods is necessary to achieve fully comparable datasets and for statistical validity, avoiding issues linked to disparate data sources. The European Multi Lake Survey (EMLS) in summer 2015 was an initiative among scientists from 27 countries to collect and analyse lake physical, chemical and biological variables in a fully standardized manner. This database includes in-situ lake variables along with nutrient, pigment and cyanotoxin data of 369 lakes in Europe, which were centrally analysed in dedicated laboratories. Publishing the EMLS methods and dataset might inspire similar initiatives to study across large geographic areas that will contribute to better understanding lake responses in a changing environment.

The elemental composition of phytoplankton is highly variable compared to the relatively narrow stoichiometry of zooplankton grazers. Using a full factorial design, we tested the effects of alterations in algal elemental composition (i.e., food quality) combined with food quantity on the life history of a Daphnia galeata clone from Lake IJsselmeer. Lower food quality reduced survival, growth, and reproduction. Food quantity became important at high food quality only. The strong effect of food quality indicates the potential for a stoichiometric bottleneck in Lake IJsselmeer, resulting in less high quality food for higher trophic levels as a result of re-oligotrophication.

The current changes in our climate will likely have far reaching consequences for aquatic ecosystems. These changes in the climate, however, do not act alone and are often accompanied by additional stressors such as eutrophication. Both global warming and eutrophication have been shown to affect the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms. Little is known about the combined effects of rising temperatures and eutrophication on the stoichiometry of entire phytoplankton communities. We exposed a natural phytoplankton spring community to different warming and phosphorus loading scenarios using a full-factorial design. Our results demonstrate that rising temperatures promote the growth rate of an entire phytoplankton community. Furthermore, both rising temperatures and phosphorus loading stimulated the maximum biomass built up by the phytoplankton community. Rising temperatures led to higher carbon:nutrient stoichiometry of the phytoplankton community under phosphorus limited conditions. Such a shift towards higher carbon:nutrient ratios, in combination with a higher biomass build-up, suggests a temperature-driven increase in nutrient use efficiency of the phytoplankton community. Importantly, higher carbon:nutrient stoichiometry of phytoplankton is generally of poorer nutritional value for zooplankton. Thus, although warming may result in higher phytoplankton biomass, this may be accompanied by a stoichiometric mismatch between phytoplankton and their grazers, with possible consequences for the entire aquatic food web. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/13-1251.1, The current changes in our climate will likely have far reaching consequences for aquatic ecosystems. These changes in the climate, however, do not act alone and are often accompanied by additional stressors such as eutrophication. Both global warming and eutrophication have been shown to affect the timing and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms. Little is known about the combined effects of rising temperatures and eutrophication on the stoichiometry of entire phytoplankton communities. We exposed a natural phytoplankton spring community to different warming and phosphorus loading scenarios using a full-factorial design. Our results demonstrate that rising temperatures promote the growth rate of an entire phytoplankton community. Furthermore, both rising temperatures and phosphorus loading stimulated the maximum biomass built up by the phytoplankton community. Rising temperatures led to higher carbon:nutrient stoichiometry of the phytoplankton community under phosphorus limited conditions. Such a shift towards higher carbon:nutrient ratios, in combination with a higher biomass build-up, suggests a temperature-driven increase in nutrient use efficiency of the phytoplankton community. Importantly, higher carbon:nutrient stoichiometry of phytoplankton is generally of poorer nutritional value for zooplankton. Thus, although warming may result in higher phytoplankton biomass, this may be accompanied by a stoichiometric mismatch between phytoplankton and their grazers, with possible consequences for the entire aquatic food web. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/13-1251.1

The cost of parasitism often depends on environmental conditions and host identity. Therefore, variation in the biotic and abiotic environment can have repercussions on both, species-level host-parasite interaction patterns but also on host genotype-specific susceptibility to disease. We exposed seven genetically different but concurrent strains of the diatom Asterionella formosa to one genotype of its naturally co-occurring chytrid parasite Zygorhizidium planktonicum across five environmentally relevant temperatures. We found that the thermal tolerance range of the tested parasite genotype was narrower than that of its host, providing the host with a “cold” and “hot” thermal refuge of very low or no infection. Susceptibility to disease was host genotype-specific and varied with temperature level so that no genotype was most or least resistant across all temperatures. This suggests a role of thermal variation in the maintenance of diversity in disease related traits in this phytoplankton host. The duration and intensity of chytrid parasite pressure on host populations is likely to be affected by the projected changes in temperature patterns due to climate warming both through altering temperature dependent disease susceptibility of the host and, potentially, through en- or disabling thermal host refugia. This, in turn may affect the selective strength of the parasite on the genetic architecture of the host population., The cost of parasitism often depends on environmental conditions and host identity. Therefore, variation in the biotic and abiotic environment can have repercussions on both, species-level host-parasite interaction patterns but also on host genotype-specific susceptibility to disease. We exposed seven genetically different but concurrent strains of the diatom Asterionella formosa to one genotype of its naturally co-occurring chytrid parasite Zygorhizidium planktonicum across five environmentally relevant temperatures. We found that the thermal tolerance range of the tested parasite genotype was narrower than that of its host, providing the host with a “cold” and “hot” thermal refuge of very low or no infection. Susceptibility to disease was host genotype-specific and varied with temperature level so that no genotype was most or least resistant across all temperatures. This suggests a role of thermal variation in the maintenance of diversity in disease related traits in this phytoplankton host. The duration and intensity of chytrid parasite pressure on host populations is likely to be affected by the projected changes in temperature patterns due to climate warming both through altering temperature dependent disease susceptibility of the host and, potentially, through en- or disabling thermal host refugia. This, in turn may affect the selective strength of the parasite on the genetic architecture of the host population.

Marine and freshwater phytoplankton populations often show large clonal diversity, which is in disagreement with clonal selection of the most vigorous genotype(s). Temporal fluctuation in selection pressures in variable environments is a leading explanation for maintenance of such genetic diversity. To test the influence of temperature as a selection force in continually (seasonally) changing aquatic systems we carried out reaction norms experiments on co-occurring clonal genotypes of a ubiquitous diatom species, Asterionella formosa Hassall, across an environmentally relevant range of temperatures. We report within population genetic diversity and extensive diversity in genotype-specific reaction norms in growth rates and cell size traits. Our results showed genotype by environment interactions, indicating that no genotype could outgrow all others across all temperature environments. Subsequently, we constructed a model to simulate the relative proportion of each genotype in a hypothetical population based on genotype and temperature-specific population growth rates. This model was run with different seasonal temperature patterns. Our modeling exercise showed a succession of two to several genotypes becoming numerically dominant depending on the underlying temperature pattern. The results suggest that (temperature) context dependent fitness may contribute to the maintenance of genetic diversity in isolated populations of clonally reproducing microorganisms in temporally variable environments.

Effects of food quality and quantity on consumers are neither independent nor interchangeable. Although consumer growth and reproduction show strong variation in relation to both food quality and quantity, the effects of food quality or food quantity have usually been studied in isolation. In two experiments, we studied the growth and reproduction in three filter-feeding freshwater zooplankton species, i.e. Daphnia galeata x hyalina, D. pulicaria and D. magna, on their algal food (Scenedesmus obliquus), varying in carbon to phosphorus (C:P) ratios and quantities (concentrations). In the first experiment, we found a strong positive effect of the phosphorus content of food on growth of Daphnia, both in their early and late juvenile development. Variation in the relationship between the P-content of animals and their growth rate reflected interspecific differences in nutrient requirements. Although growth rates typically decreased as development neared maturation, this did not affect these species-specific couplings between growth rate and Daphnia P-content. In the second experiment, we examined the effects of food quality on Daphnia growth at different levels of food quantity. With the same decrease in P-content of food, species with higher estimated P-content at zero growth showed a larger increase in threshold food concentrations (i.e. food concentration sufficient to meet metabolic requirements but not growth). These results suggest that physiological processes such as maintenance and growth may in combination explain effects of food quality and quantity on consumers. Our study shows that differences in response to variation in food quality and quantity exist between species. As a consequence, species-specific effects of food quality on consumer growth will also determine how species deal with varying food levels, which has implications for resource-consumer interactions., Effects of food quality and quantity on consumers are neither independent nor interchangeable. Although consumer growth and reproduction show strong variation in relation to both food quality and quantity, the effects of food quality or food quantity have usually been studied in isolation. In two experiments, we studied the growth and reproduction in three filter-feeding freshwater zooplankton species, i.e. Daphnia galeata x hyalina, D. pulicaria and D. magna, on their algal food (Scenedesmus obliquus), varying in carbon to phosphorus (C:P) ratios and quantities (concentrations). In the first experiment, we found a strong positive effect of the phosphorus content of food on growth of Daphnia, both in their early and late juvenile development. Variation in the relationship between the P-content of animals and their growth rate reflected interspecific differences in nutrient requirements. Although growth rates typically decreased as development neared maturation, this did not affect these species-specific couplings between growth rate and Daphnia P-content. In the second experiment, we examined the effects of food quality on Daphnia growth at different levels of food quantity. With the same decrease in P-content of food, species with higher estimated P-content at zero growth showed a larger increase in threshold food concentrations (i.e. food concentration sufficient to meet metabolic requirements but not growth). These results suggest that physiological processes such as maintenance and growth may in combination explain effects of food quality and quantity on consumers. Our study shows that differences in response to variation in food quality and quantity exist between species. As a consequence, species-specific effects of food quality on consumer growth will also determine how species deal with varying food levels, which has implications for resource-consumer interactions.

The seasonal succession of plankton is an annually repeated process of community assembly during which all major external factors and internal interactions shaping communities can be studied. A quarter of a century ago, the state of this understanding was described by the verbal plankton ecology group (PEG) model. It emphasized the role of physical factors, grazing and nutrient limitation for phytoplankton, and the role of food limitation and fish predation for zooplankton. Although originally targeted at lake ecosystems, it became also adopted by marine plankton ecologists. Since then, a suite of ecological interactions previously underestimated in importance have become research foci: overwintering of key organisms, the microbial food web, parasitism, and food quality as a limiting factor and an extended role of higher order predators. A review of the impact of these novel interactions on plankton seasonal succession reveals limited effects on gross seasonal biomass patterns, but strong effects on species replacements., The seasonal succession of plankton is an annually repeated process of community assembly during which all major external factors and internal interactions shaping communities can be studied. A quarter of a century ago, the state of this understanding was described by the verbal plankton ecology group (PEG) model. It emphasized the role of physical factors, grazing and nutrient limitation for phytoplankton, and the role of food limitation and fish predation for zooplankton. Although originally targeted at lake ecosystems, it became also adopted by marine plankton ecologists. Since then, a suite of ecological interactions previously underestimated in importance have become research foci: overwintering of key organisms, the microbial food web, parasitism, and food quality as a limiting factor and an extended role of higher order predators. A review of the impact of these novel interactions on plankton seasonal succession reveals limited effects on gross seasonal biomass patterns, but strong effects on species replacements.

A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others (‘reinventing the wheel’). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available (‘having tunnel vision’). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its ‘leading principle’, there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single ‘right’ approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view, A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others (‘reinventing the wheel’). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available (‘having tunnel vision’). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its ‘leading principle’, there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single ‘right’ approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view

To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems., To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere–land surface–lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue., Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere–land surface–lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

The aquatic macrophyte Stratiotes aloides Linnaeus, which has recently received attention in studies on allelopathy, has been shown to suppress phytoplankton growth. In the Netherlands, S. aloides often co-occurs with floating filamentous algae. However, filamentous algae are generally absent in close proximity to S. aloides, resulting in gaps in filamentous algae mats. We analyzed whether those gaps may be caused by allelopathic substances excreted by S. aloides or by nutrient depletion. We studied in a field survey the colonization of natural S. aloides by filamentous algae and determined in situ nutrient concentrations in natural S. aloides stands. To analyze the relative importance of allelopathy and nutrient competition in the interaction between S. aloides and filamentous algae, we carried out field experiments. Introduction of artificial (non-allelopathic) plants in natural S. aloides stands enabled us to compare the colonization by filamentous algae of both Stratiotes sp. and artificial plants. The filamentous algae were absent in close vicinity to S. aloides. Significantly lower concentrations of ortho-phosphate and potassium were observed close to S. aloides as compared with the filamentous algae. In the field experiments the artificial plants were rapidly colonized by filamentous algae, mainly Cladophera Kützing and Spirogyra Link, while all natural plants remained free of such algae. Additionally, most nutrient concentrations did not significantly differ in the proximity of artificial or natural stands of S. aloides. The concentrations of the major growth-limiting nutrients, phosphate and nitrate, were significantly higher and nonlimiting in natural Stratiotes stands. Our main conclusion is that, although allelopathic interactions between S. aloides and filamentous algae do occur under natural conditions, nutrient competition between the two can also be an important factor., The aquatic macrophyte Stratiotes aloides Linnaeus, which has recently received attention in studies on allelopathy, has been shown to suppress phytoplankton growth. In the Netherlands, S. aloides often co-occurs with floating filamentous algae. However, filamentous algae are generally absent in close proximity to S. aloides, resulting in gaps in filamentous algae mats. We analyzed whether those gaps may be caused by allelopathic substances excreted by S. aloides or by nutrient depletion. We studied in a field survey the colonization of natural S. aloides by filamentous algae and determined in situ nutrient concentrations in natural S. aloides stands. To analyze the relative importance of allelopathy and nutrient competition in the interaction between S. aloides and filamentous algae, we carried out field experiments. Introduction of artificial (non-allelopathic) plants in natural S. aloides stands enabled us to compare the colonization by filamentous algae of both Stratiotes sp. and artificial plants. The filamentous algae were absent in close vicinity to S. aloides. Significantly lower concentrations of ortho-phosphate and potassium were observed close to S. aloides as compared with the filamentous algae. In the field experiments the artificial plants were rapidly colonized by filamentous algae, mainly Cladophera Kützing and Spirogyra Link, while all natural plants remained free of such algae. Additionally, most nutrient concentrations did not significantly differ in the proximity of artificial or natural stands of S. aloides. The concentrations of the major growth-limiting nutrients, phosphate and nitrate, were significantly higher and nonlimiting in natural Stratiotes stands. Our main conclusion is that, although allelopathic interactions between S. aloides and filamentous algae do occur under natural conditions, nutrient competition between the two can also be an important factor.

Shallow lakes typically can be in one of two contrasting states: a clear state with submerged macrophytes or a turbid state dominated by phytoplankton. Eutrophication may cause a switch from the clear to the turbid state, if the phosphorus loading exceeds a critical value. Recovery of the clear state is difficult as the critical loading for the switch back during oligotrophication is often lower. A system of interacting ecological processes makes both states stabilize themselves causing the observed hysteresis. The ecosystem of shallow lakes is analysed with PCLake, a dynamic model of nutrient cycling and biota – including phytoplankton, macrophytes and a simplified food web. The model was used to calculate the switchpoints in terms of critical phosphorus loading levels for a number of lake types. It turned out that the predicted critical phosphorus loadings differ per lake type, e.g. they decrease with lake area, mean depth and retention time, increase with relative marsh area and fishing intensity, and differ per sediment type. The findings were grossly comparable with empirical evidence. These outcomes were also used to build a metamodel. The results may be useful for lake management, by comparing the critical loadings for a given lake with the actual loading. If the actual loading clearly exceeds the upper switchpoint, nutrient reduction measures are recommended. If the loading approaches the upper switchpoint, or is in the intermediate range, a manager could try to increase the critical loading values of the lake, e.g. by hydromorphological measures. If the loading is well between the two switchpoints, an alternative is to force a switch by direct food web management., Shallow lakes typically can be in one of two contrasting states: a clear state with submerged macrophytes or a turbid state dominated by phytoplankton. Eutrophication may cause a switch from the clear to the turbid state, if the phosphorus loading exceeds a critical value. Recovery of the clear state is difficult as the critical loading for the switch back during oligotrophication is often lower. A system of interacting ecological processes makes both states stabilize themselves causing the observed hysteresis. The ecosystem of shallow lakes is analysed with PCLake, a dynamic model of nutrient cycling and biota – including phytoplankton, macrophytes and a simplified food web. The model was used to calculate the switchpoints in terms of critical phosphorus loading levels for a number of lake types. It turned out that the predicted critical phosphorus loadings differ per lake type, e.g. they decrease with lake area, mean depth and retention time, increase with relative marsh area and fishing intensity, and differ per sediment type. The findings were grossly comparable with empirical evidence. These outcomes were also used to build a metamodel. The results may be useful for lake management, by comparing the critical loadings for a given lake with the actual loading. If the actual loading clearly exceeds the upper switchpoint, nutrient reduction measures are recommended. If the loading approaches the upper switchpoint, or is in the intermediate range, a manager could try to increase the critical loading values of the lake, e.g. by hydromorphological measures. If the loading is well between the two switchpoints, an alternative is to force a switch by direct food web management.

Mismatches between predator and prey due to climate change have now been documented for a number of systems. Ultimately, a mismatch may have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem functioning as decoupling of trophic relationships results in trophic cascades. Here, we examine the potential for climate change induced mismatches between zooplankton and algae during spring succession, with a focus on Daphnia and its algal food. Whereas the development of an overwintering population of daphnids may parallel shifts in phytoplankton phenology due to climate warming, changes in the photoperiod–temperature interaction may cause the emerging population of daphnids to hatch too late and mismatch their phytoplankton prey. A decoupling of the trophic relationship between the keystone herbivore Daphnia and its algal prey can result in the absence of a spring clear water phase. We extended an existing minimal model of seasonal dynamics of Daphnia and algae and varied the way the Daphnia population is started in spring, i.e., from free swimming individuals or from hatching resting eggs. Our model results show that temperature affects the timing of peak abundance in Daphnia and algae, and subsequently the timing of the clear water phase. When a population is started from a small inoculum of hatching resting eggs, extreme climate warming (+6°C) results in a decoupling of trophic relationships and the clear water phase fails to occur. In the other scenarios, the trophic relationships between Daphnia and its algal food source remain intact. Analysis of 36 temperate lakes showed that shallow lakes have a higher potential for climate induced match–mismatches, as the probability of active overwintering daphnids decreases with lake depth. Future research should point out whether lake depth is a direct causal factor in determining the presence of active overwintering daphnids or merely indicative for underlying causal factors such as fish predation and macrophyte cover., Mismatches between predator and prey due to climate change have now been documented for a number of systems. Ultimately, a mismatch may have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem functioning as decoupling of trophic relationships results in trophic cascades. Here, we examine the potential for climate change induced mismatches between zooplankton and algae during spring succession, with a focus on Daphnia and its algal food. Whereas the development of an overwintering population of daphnids may parallel shifts in phytoplankton phenology due to climate warming, changes in the photoperiod–temperature interaction may cause the emerging population of daphnids to hatch too late and mismatch their phytoplankton prey. A decoupling of the trophic relationship between the keystone herbivore Daphnia and its algal prey can result in the absence of a spring clear water phase. We extended an existing minimal model of seasonal dynamics of Daphnia and algae and varied the way the Daphnia population is started in spring, i.e., from free swimming individuals or from hatching resting eggs. Our model results show that temperature affects the timing of peak abundance in Daphnia and algae, and subsequently the timing of the clear water phase. When a population is started from a small inoculum of hatching resting eggs, extreme climate warming (+6°C) results in a decoupling of trophic relationships and the clear water phase fails to occur. In the other scenarios, the trophic relationships between Daphnia and its algal food source remain intact. Analysis of 36 temperate lakes showed that shallow lakes have a higher potential for climate induced match–mismatches, as the probability of active overwintering daphnids decreases with lake depth. Future research should point out whether lake depth is a direct causal factor in determining the presence of active overwintering daphnids or merely indicative for underlying causal factors such as fish predation and macrophyte cover.

Global average surface temperatures are expected to rise by about 1.4–5.8°C from the present until the year 2100. This temperature increase will affect all ecosystems on earth. For shallow lakes—which can be either in a clear water or a turbid state—this climate change will expectedly negatively affect water transparency though the prediction is far from conclusive and experimental investigations elucidating the potential climatic effects on shallow lakes are still rare. The aim of this study was to further shape and sharpens hypotheses on the impact of climate change on shallow lakes by applying an existing and well-calibrated ecosystem model, PCLake. We focused on asymptotic model behaviour for a range of temperature and loading scenarios in a factorial design. We conclude that climate change will likely lead to decreased critical nutrient loadings. Combined with an expected increase in the external nutrient loading, this will increase the probability of a shift from a clear to a turbid state. As the model predicts a higher summer chlorophyll-a concentration, a stronger dominance of cyanobacteria during summer and a reduced zooplankton abundance due to climate change, the turbid state itself is likely to become even more severe., Global average surface temperatures are expected to rise by about 1.4–5.8°C from the present until the year 2100. This temperature increase will affect all ecosystems on earth. For shallow lakes—which can be either in a clear water or a turbid state—this climate change will expectedly negatively affect water transparency though the prediction is far from conclusive and experimental investigations elucidating the potential climatic effects on shallow lakes are still rare. The aim of this study was to further shape and sharpens hypotheses on the impact of climate change on shallow lakes by applying an existing and well-calibrated ecosystem model, PCLake. We focused on asymptotic model behaviour for a range of temperature and loading scenarios in a factorial design. We conclude that climate change will likely lead to decreased critical nutrient loadings. Combined with an expected increase in the external nutrient loading, this will increase the probability of a shift from a clear to a turbid state. As the model predicts a higher summer chlorophyll-a concentration, a stronger dominance of cyanobacteria during summer and a reduced zooplankton abundance due to climate change, the turbid state itself is likely to become even more severe.

Climate change is likely to have far-reaching effects on biotic interactions in aquatic ecosystems. We investigated the effect of different spring warming scenarios on the succession of three algal groups (cyanobacteria, diatoms and green algae) in 10-l microcosms. We fitted these microcosm data to a simple mechanistic model to estimate the effect of different climate warming scenarios on the population dynamics of these algal functional groups. Experimental and model results indicate that the different algal functional groups respond differently to climate warming under phosphorus-limited conditions. Whereas the successional sequence, from diatoms to green algae to cyanobacteria, was not affected by the different climate warming scenarios, cyanobacteria showed a stronger response to the different climate warming scenarios than diatoms or green algae. Both the growth rates and peak abundances of cyanobacteria were significantly higher in the average and warm spring scenarios than in the cold spring scenario. Our findings illustrate that integration of models and microcosm experiments are a useful approach in predicting the impacts of rising temperatures on the dynamics of phytoplankton communities., Climate change is likely to have far-reaching effects on biotic interactions in aquatic ecosystems. We investigated the effect of different spring warming scenarios on the succession of three algal groups (cyanobacteria, diatoms and green algae) in 10-l microcosms. We fitted these microcosm data to a simple mechanistic model to estimate the effect of different climate warming scenarios on the population dynamics of these algal functional groups. Experimental and model results indicate that the different algal functional groups respond differently to climate warming under phosphorus-limited conditions. Whereas the successional sequence, from diatoms to green algae to cyanobacteria, was not affected by the different climate warming scenarios, cyanobacteria showed a stronger response to the different climate warming scenarios than diatoms or green algae. Both the growth rates and peak abundances of cyanobacteria were significantly higher in the average and warm spring scenarios than in the cold spring scenario. Our findings illustrate that integration of models and microcosm experiments are a useful approach in predicting the impacts of rising temperatures on the dynamics of phytoplankton communities.