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The maximum directed >14cm sardine catch recommended to be caught west of Cape Agulhas during 2017 was initially set at 21 400t (DAFF 2016) based on the method set out in de Moor and Butterworth (2016). The mid-year revision in the South African sardine and anchovy TACs and TABs for 2017 is to be based on OMP-14, as OMP-17 is still under development. The maximum directed >14cm sardine catch recommended to be caught west of Cape Agulhas thus requires some revision to take account of further work on the underlying sardine Operating Model and information resulting from the 2017 recruit survey.

Butterworth (2016) outlined a draft process for setting the initial directed >14cm sardine TAC for 2017. This document expands on the detail of that draft process, with some changes/updates. Further, it provides initial projections from November 2015 to November 2017, assuming that the May 2016 survey estimate of recruitment was observed without error. Ideally the SWG-PEL will select a low probability for November 2017 projected 2+ biomass being below the inflection point of the hockey-stick stock recruitment curve at the meeting on 7th December, based on the initial results presented below. In addition, the SWG-PEL may need to select a percentage increase above the recommended west coast catch limit that could be used to recommend an initial directed >14cm sardine TAC. This latter step seems to need consideration because formal spatial restrictions will not at this stage be included on the permits with the initial TAC allocation. Thus, as a worst case scenario, the majority of this initial TAC may be caught on the west coast. The remaining steps in this process are proposed to be undertaken after the November 2016 hydroacoustic survey estimate of abundance becomes available.

The two mixing stock hypotheses for South African sardine presented in de Moor and Butterworth (2016) and de Moor (2016) assumed a Hockey-Stick stock-recruit relationship, with the stock-recruit parameters estimated to differ by “effective spawning stock”. In addition, recruitment to the west stock during the “peak” 2000-2004 years was estimated to vary about a different median level. In this document the two-mixing stock hypothesis is re-run without any assumed stock-recruit relationship.

The simulation projection framework to be used to test Candidate Management Procedures for OMP-17 is yet to be developed (cf de Moor and Butterworth (2013a) for the framework used when developing OMP-14). However, given experience gained during the testing of OMP-14, some initial assessment results (de Moor and Butterworth 2016a,b) and discussions in the SPSWG, we can begin to consider some alternative key assumptions to be used in the simulation projection framework to be used for developing OMP-17.

The assessment of the South African sardine resource has been revised and updated using data available up to November 2015. Two primary hypotheses regarding the sardine stock structure have been agreed for investigation. The first considers sardine distributed off the west and south coasts of South Africa to form a single homogeneous “stock” (or “population”). The second considers the sardine to consist of a western stock and southern stock with some mixing between the two. While there is growing evidence supporting the existence of sub-population structure amongst sardine distributed off the west and south coasts of South Africa (e.g. Coetzee et al. 2008, van der Lingen et al. 2009, 2015, van der Lingen 2011, Weston et al. 2015), the single stock hypothesis continues to be modelled as it allows for easy comparison to past assessments and, in particular, to past risk statistics and previous Operational Management Procedures. It also reflects a limiting case of the mixing model as the extent of mixing becomes very large. This document presents results at the joint posterior mode for the single stock hypothesis only.

The Operating Model (OM) for the South African sardine resource has been updated from that used to develop OMP-14 given four more years of data. The model has been altered from previous assessments to now model infection of sardine by a “tetracotyle”-type metacercarian parasite, and includes data on this parasite prevalence-by-length in the likelihood. A Hockey-Stick stock recruitment relationship is used for this OM, with a different median recruitment and higher variability estimated for the west stock during “peak years”. Time-invariant natural mortality is assumed to be 1.0 year-1 for juveniles and 0.8 year-1 for adults as before. The total resource abundance is estimated to be 688 thousand tons in November 2015, with the west stock consisting of 142 thousand tons and the south stock consisting of 546 thousand tons. These biomasses are well below the long term average of 1 039 and 492 thousand tons for the total resource and west stock respectively, and near the long term average of 547 thousand tons for the south stock. The west stock has experienced below average recruitment in 11 out of the 12 most recent years.

This study investigated the predictors of participation in a school-based, anti-tobacco activism program. Subjects in this study consisted of 7th grade students participating in the intervention component of Project S.H.O.U.T., a tobacco use prevention program in San Diego County, California. In the activism component, a newsletter containing an activism contest was distributed to each student. Small prizes were awarded to contest winners at each school. "Activism" included letter and petition writing, anti-tobacco poster contests, merchant education, peer surveys and magazine subscription cards. A total of 170 students participated in the activities, with 81.1 percent participating two or more times. Of those who participated, 59 percent were female and 60 percent were White, non-Hispanic. Two sets of logistic analyses were conducted. Variables such as SES, gender, ethnicity, friends' tobacco use and parental tobacco use were used to predict participation in activism activities. The choice of variables was intended to provide information regarding activism participation in reference to known tobacco risk factors. Results of the first analysis indicated that students with a higher SES, and in an urban vs. rural location were more likely to participate in the activism activities. The second analysis used the same set of characteristics to predict "ever-use" of tobacco. Results of this analysis indicated that male gender, low grades, White, non-Hispanic ethnicity, friends' and parents' tobacco use were positively associated with tobacco experimentation.

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Certain cancers are more common among African Americans (AA). Fruit and vegetables (FV) reduce cancer risk, but Americans, and African Americans in particular, do not meet the "5 A Day" goal. Scouting organizations, particularly urban Boy Scout groups that target inner-city youth, provide promising channels for nutritional behavioral change programs.Focus groups were conducted with urban Boy Scouts and their parents to identify factors influencing FV consumption and evaluate potential intervention activities. Twenty-four-hour dietary recalls were collected from 85 area Boy Scouts. A national data set was used to obtain values for FV consumption by African American and European American (boys age 0-16).Vegetable preferences were low and a negative peer influence for vegetables was reported. The group has limited food-preparation skills, but both parents and scouts reported that FV were available in their homes. Use of goal setting and use of problem-solving techniques were limited. The local scouts' mean FV intake was 3.2 servings per day. Ethnic differences in FV consumption were identified in the national data.Based on these results and previous interventions in schools, an overall structure for the intervention was developed to include eight weekly troop sessions and two camping sessions, parent newsletters, seven weekly home badge assignments, and ten comic books.