Search

Most of the forensic evidence evaluations given activity level propositions are centered around an item which is assumed to be linked to an alleged activity. However, the relation between an item of interest and an activity may be contested. This study presents a template Bayesian network (BN) for the evaluation of transfer evidence given activity level propositions considering a dispute about the relation of an item to one or more activities. The template BN includes a set of association propositions that enables the combined evaluation of evidence concerning alleged activities of the suspect and evidence concerning the use of an alleged item in those activities. Since the two types of evidence are often from different forensic disciplines, the BN is especially useful in interdisciplinary casework. Throughout the paper, we use a fictive case example that captures the essence of cases for which the template model can be used. The template BN provides a flexible starting point that can be adapted to specific case situations and supports structured probabilistic reasoning by a forensic scientist.

Human salmonellosis cases are often caused by Salmonella serovars Enteritidis and Typhimurium and associated with the consumption of eggs and egg products. Many countries therefore implemented general surveillance programmes on pullet and layer farms. The identification of risk factors for Salmonella infection may be used to improve the performance of these surveillance programmes. The aims of this study were therefore to determine 1) whether local farm density is a risk factor for the infection of pullet and layer farms by Salmonella Enteritidis and Typhimurium and 2) whether the sampling effort of surveillance programmes can be reduced by accounting for this risk factor, while still providing sufficient control of these serovars. We assessed the importance of local farm density as a risk factor by fitting transmission kernels to Israeli surveillance data during the period from June 2017 to April 2019. The analysis shows that the risk of infection by serovars Enteritidis and Typhimurium significantly increased if infected farms were present within a radius of approximately 4 km and 0.3 km, respectively. We subsequently optimized a surveillance programme that subdivided layer farms into low and high risk groups based on the local farm density with and allowed the sampling frequency to vary between these groups. In this design, the pullet farms were always sampled one week prior to pullet distribution. Our analysis shows that the risk-based surveillance programme is able to keep the between-farm R0 of serovars Enteritidis and Typhimurium below 1 for all pullet and layer farms, while reducing the sampling effort by 32% compared to the currently implemented surveillance programme in Israel. The results of our study therefore indicate that local farm density is an important risk factor for infection of pullet and layer farms by Salmonella Enteritidis and Typhimurium and can be used to improve the performance of surveillance programmes.

Abstract The recent bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) epidemic in Western Europe struck hard. Controlling the infection was difficult and a good and safe vaccine was not available until the spring of 2008. Little was known regarding BTV transmission in Western Europe or the efficacy of control measures. Quantitative details on transmission are essential to assess the potential and efficacy of such measures. To quantify virus transmission between herds, a temporal and a spatio-temporal analysis were applied to data on reported infected herds in 2006. We calculated the basic reproduction number between herds (Rh: expected number of new infections, generated by one initial infected herd in a susceptible environment). It was found to be of the same order of magnitude as that of an infection with Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in The Netherlands, e.g. around 4. We concluded that an average day temperature of at least 15°C is required for BTV-8 transmission between herds in Western Europe. A few degrees increase in temperature is found to lead to a major increase in BTV-8 transmission. We also found that the applied disease control (spatial zones based on 20 km radius restricting animal transport to outside regions) led to a spatial transmission pattern of BTV-8, with 85% of transmission restricted to a 20 km range. This 20 km equals the scale of the protection zones. We concluded that free animal movement led to substantial faster spread of the BTV-8 epidemic over space as compared to a situation with animal movement restrictions.

Adhesive tape is a common piece of evidence that can contain a myriad of traces. Due to its adhesive properties, adhesive tape can potentially collect traces unrelated to the crime or relocate crime-relevant traces. This secondary transfer of traces can have crucial implications for the evaluation at the activity level. Therefore, this study investigated the secondary transfer of DNA between layers of adhesive tape and tape and other case- and laboratory-relevant substrates. A drop of diluted blood was deposited on different primary substrates (i.e. duct tape, metal, plastic, textile, nitrile gloves). Subsequently, the primary substrate was brought into contact with a secondary substrate, and DNA was collected from both surfaces to measure transfer rates. The highest transfer rates were detected between the adhesive side of the tape and plastic, whereas the lowest transfer rates were detected between the adhesive side and textile. It was shown that the adhesive readily collects DNA from plastic and nitrile gloves commonly used in the laboratory, which highlights the importance of working with DNA-free materials. Therefore, this study demonstrated the need for caution when interpreting traces on adhesive tapes, always taking possible situations of secondary transfer into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study examines the theoretical and empirical relationships between LM&SS, human resource management (HRM), climate for LM&SS and outcomes (employee well-being and performance) in hospitals. As part of this research, the authors examine the interplay between "hard" and "soft" practices for LM&SS and "soft" HR practices. Design/methodology/approach: A cross-sectional, multisite survey study covering all internal service units at all eight Dutch university hospitals was conducted (42 units, N = 218 supervisors, N = 1,668 employees), and multivariate multilevel regression analyses were performed. Findings: A systems approach involving "soft" LM&SS practices that are specifically HR-related has a positive effect (β is 0.46) on a climate for LM&SS. A climate for LM&SS is not related to perceived performance or employee health. It is, however, positively related to employee happiness and trusting relationships (both βs are 0.33). We did not find that a climate for LM&SS had a mediating effect. Research limitations/implications: This study shows that a balanced approach involving both "hard" and "soft" factors is crucial to achieving the desired breadth and depth of LM&SS adoption at the macro, meso, and micro levels. The authors found that a climate for LM&SS positively affects employee well-being in hospitals. Practical implications: In their attempt to create mutual gains for both their organization and their employees, hospitals that adopt LM&SS should foster a climate for LM&SS by embracing a balanced approach consisting of both "hard" and "soft" practices, thereby internalizing LM&SS at the macro, meso, and micro levels. Originality/value: This is one of the first studies to examine in-depth the impact of "hard" and "soft" LM&SS on both employee well-being (subdivided into different components) and performance in healthcare, as well as the role of "soft" HRM in this relationship. Linking LM&SS, HRM and outcomes to a climate for LM&SS is relatively a new approach and has led to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underpinning the internalization of LM&SS in healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 2007 and 2010 a Q fever epidemic in Dutch dairy goat farms caused a large Q fever outbreak in human residents in the southern part of the Netherlands. Here we characterize the transmission of Coxiella burnetii, the aetiological agent of Q fever, between infected and susceptible dairy goat farms by estimating a spatial transmission kernel. In addition, we characterize the zoonotic transmission of C. burnetii by estimating the spatial kernel for transmission from infected farms to neighbouring residents. Whereas the range of between-farm transmission is comparable to the scale of the Netherlands, likely due to long-range between-farm contacts such as animal transport, the transmission risk from farms to humans is more localized, although still extending to 10 km and beyond. Within a range of about 10 km, the transmission risk from an infected goat farm to a single resident is of the same order of magnitude as the farm-to-farm transmission risk per animal in a receiving farm. We illustrate how, based on the estimated kernels, spatial patterns of transmission risks between farms and from farms to residents can be calculated and visualized by means of risk maps, offering further insight relevant to policy making in a one-health context.