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BackgroundIncreased success in the treatment of hematological cancers contributed to the increase of 5-year survival for most adolescent and young adults (AYAs) with these tumours. However, as 5-year survival increased, it became clear that AYA long-term survivors were at increased risk for severe late effects. Moreover, limited information on long-term cancer impact is available for AYAs, since most studies focused on children and adolescents. We aimed to assess various long-term outcomes on AYA survivors of hematological cancers.MethodsWe selected patients diagnosed with a first primary hematological cancer between 1997 and 2006, in the Italian nationwide population-based cohort of AYA cancer survivors (i.e. alive at least 5 years after cancer diagnosis). Long-term outcomes of interest were: second malignant neoplasms (SMNs), hospitalizations and overall mortality. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), standardized hospitalization rate ratios (SHRs) and standardized mortality rate ratios (SMRs). To study morbidity patterns over time, we modeled observed incidence rates by fitting flexible parametric models for nonlinear patterns and we used linear regression for linear patterns.ResultsThe study cohort included 5,042 AYA hematological cancer survivors of which 1,237 and 3,805 had a leukaemia and lymphoma diagnosis, respectively. AYA survivors were at substantially increased risk for SMN (SIR=2.1; 95%CI=1.7; 2.6), hospitalisation (SHR=1.5; 95%CI=1.5; 1.6), and mortality (SMR=1.4; 95%CI=1.2; 1.6) with differences between leukaemia and lymphoma survivors. The highest excess risks of hospitalisations were for infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, and diseases of blood and blood-forming organs. The morbidity pattern differs over time by morbidity type.ConclusionsOur results support the need for strict follow-up plans for survivors, and call for further study to better personalised follow-up plans for AYA cancer survivors.

The Campi Flegrei caldera is a complex and resurgent structure, and its active portion has been the site of an intense volcanism with eruptions concentrated in temporal clusters, called epochs. The caldera is home to about 350,000 people. In the past decades, many scientific studies were aimed at both defining fundamental parameters of a future eruption, and hazard zoning of the territory. The approach to the volcanic hazard assessment of the Campi Flegrei caldera has progressively changed through time from a “deterministic” interpretation of the available information to a quantitative probabilistic elaboration of the main sources of uncertainty. In particular, on the long-term, Astroni-Agnano-Solfatara is recognised to be the most probable area in which a vent will likely open, while the Averno-Monte Nuovo is the second most probable one. Significant uncertainty affects these results, and a non-negligible vent opening probability spreads over the whole caldera. The inter-event times of volcanic eruptions span from a few years to thousands of years. Within the epochs of activity, the mean recurrence time is tens of years, and intra-epoch temporal groups are evident. The probability that the next eruption will be of < 0.1 km3 volume of magma DRE is ~95%. Larger size eruptions tend to be localised in the central-eastern sector of the caldera. Expected hazards from renewal of explosive volcanism result from pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents. Pyroclastic fallout deposits in excess of 300 kg/m2 can affect most of the caldera and the city of Naples with more than 10% probability. The entire caldera has the potential to be affected by pyroclastic density currents invasion with mean probability above 30% in its central-eastern portion, and above 50% in the Agnano area. Invasion probabilities of ~5–10% have been estimated for the urbanised areas along the eastern slopes of the Posillipo Hill. In summary, probabilistic hazard assessment is particularly important in Campi Flegrei caldera, due to the uncertain location for potential vents and the large variability of eruption styles and sizes that cannot be, at the present time, effectively constrained by monitoring signals.

Incidence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is increasing over the last years, while patients prognosis remains grim. Recently germline BRCA1 and 2 pathogenic variants (gBRCA1-2) have emerged as risk factors for PDAC development, as well as new predictors of response to specific therapeutic interventions. However, data on gBRCA1-2 incidence in PDAC are currently sparse and limited to selected categories of patients, as for positive cancer history cases, for patients affected only by early or late stages of disease and mainly from the North-American population, thus generating incomplete information about the gBRCA1/2 epidemiology. In Western Countries gBRCA1-2 incidence ranges between 4.5% and 8% in unselected PDAC patients, raising up to 26% in cohorts with positive family cancer history. To date a limited number of studies from Asian countries are available, reporting a 10% as highest incidence of gBRCA1-2 in familiar PDAC, claiming at least in part a role of ethnicity in the gBRCA1-2 incidence and in other genes potentially implicated in the therapeutic decisions. Drawing a better defined map for the incidence of gBRCA1-2 and other germline pathogenic variants of DNA Damage Response genes (gDDR) might help assessing the therapeutic strategies for mutated patients according to the geographic areas. These informations may enhance the chance to predict efficacy and toxicity of selected chemotherapy regimens, fostering the development and implementation of the pharmaco-ethnicity knowledge in the routine-clinical practice, and increasing the awareness of the potential incorrect generalization of trials results outside of the geographic area where they are conducted.

Sorafenib is the first multikinase inhibitor demonstrating a survival benefit for patients suffering from advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, 1 issue remains open: what is the factor able to predict which patients will be long survivors?In the present study, we harnessed the potential of conditional survival, aiming at estimating the probability that a patient receiving sorafenib survives for more than 3 years.The present multicentric study was conducted on a cohort of 438 HCC patients. The primary end point was conditional overall survival. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to calculate conditional overall survival probabilities at 3 years.The 3-year conditional survival of patients without disease progression highlights that NLR and ECOG are the factors that most accurately predict the probability of long survival. The 3-year conditional survival of patients with disease progression showed a medium effect size for HCV status, alpha-fetoprotein and NLR at all time-points. Macro-vascular portal vein invasion, extra hepatic disease, and BCLC we have a large effect size at 6 months and a medium effect size at 12 and 24 months.Our findings support the use of baseline NLR for the identification of patients with a higher probability of long-survival. NLR should be used as a stratification factor in the forthcoming clinical trials on the drugs for the advanced HCC now in pipeline.

ObjectiveThe impact of a screening programme on colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in its target population depends on several variables, including coverage with invitations, participation rate, positivity rate of the screening test, compliance with an invitation to second-level assessment and endoscopists’ sensitivity. We propose a synthetic indicator that may account for all the variables influencing the potential impact of a screening programme on CRC incidence.DesignWe defined the ‘rate of advanced adenoma on the target population’ (AA-TAP) as the rate of patients who received a diagnosis of advanced adenoma within a screening programme, divided by the programme target population. We computed the AA-TAP for the CRC Italian screening programmes (biennial faecal immunochemical test, target population 50–69 year olds) using the data of the Italian National Survey from 2003 to 2016, overall and by region, and assessed the association between AA-TAP and CRC incidence fitting a linear regression between the trend of regional CRC incidence rates in 50–74 year old subjects and the cumulative AA-TAP.ResultsIn 2016, the AA-TAP at a national level was 105×100 000, whereas significant differences were observed between the northern and central regions (respectively 126 and 149×100 000) and the South and Islands (36×100 000). The cumulative AA-TAP from 2004 to 2012 was significantly correlated with the difference between CRC incidence rates in 2013–2014 and those in 2003–2004 (p=0.009).ConclusionThe AA-TAP summarises into a single indicator the potential impact of a screening programme in reducing CRC incidence rates.

An Online First version of this article was made available online at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11523-020-00757-3 on 12 October 2020. Errors were subsequently identified in the article, and the following corrections should be noted.

Objective The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) declines among subjects aged 50 years and above. An opposite trend appears among younger adults. In Europe, data on CRC incidence among younger adults are lacking. We therefore aimed to analyse European trends in CRC incidence and mortality in subjects younger than 50 years. Design Data on age-related CRC incidence and mortality between 1990 and 2016 were retrieved from national and regional cancer registries. Trends were analysed by Joinpoint regression and expressed as annual percent change. Results We retrieved data on 143.7 million people aged 20–49 years from 20 European countries. Of them, 187 918 (0.13%) were diagnosed with CRC. On average, CRC incidence increased with 7.9% per year among subjects aged 20–29 years from 2004 to 2016. The increase in the age group of 30–39 years was 4.9% per year from 2005 to 2016, the increase in the age group of 40–49 years was 1.6% per year from 2004 to 2016. This increase started earliest in subjects aged 20–29 years, and 10–20 years later in those aged 30–39 and 40–49 years. This is consistent with an age-cohort phenomenon. Although in most European countries the CRC incidence had risen, some heterogeneity was found between countries. CRC mortality did not significantly change among the youngest adults, but decreased with 1.1%per year between 1990 and 2016 and 2.4% per year between 1990 and 2009 among those aged 30–39 years and 40–49 years, respectively. Conclusion CRC incidence rises among young adults in Europe. The cause for this trend needs to be elucidated. Clinicians should be aware of this trend. If the trend continues, screening guidelines may need to be reconsidered.

Influenza is a relevant public health problem, also due to the risk of complications. The most effective measure to prevent influenza is vaccination; therefore, at present, there is consensus among European countries, regarding the need for routine seasonal influenza vaccination of elderly and individuals at increased risk of severe influenza. At the same time, influenza surveillance is necessary to understand the viruses circulating and effectiveness of vaccination strategies. The present study reports the results of two seasons influenza surveillance (2017/2018 and 2018/2019) conduced in an University Hospital in Rome among hospitalized patients aged ≥65 years.A prospective cohort study.The study consisted of systematic daily screening of all admissions among patients aged ≥65 years meeting a syndromic SARI case definition during two consecutive influenza seasons: 2017/2018 and 2018/2019. Characteristics of patients and their risk factors were collected by a standardized questionnaire and nose-pharyngeal swabs were performed to each patient. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE), rates of vaccinated subjects and case fatality rate were also evaluated.Influenza was laboratory confirmed in 11 (9.9%) of the 111 and 11 (9.6%) of the 115 enrolled patients in seasons 2017/18 and 2018/19, respectively. Adjusted IVE against all influenza type, calculated for each season, was 88.5% (95% CI: 38.9 to 97.8) and 61.7% (95% CI: -59.9 to 90.9) for 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 seasons, respectively. Our analysis shows a Case Fatality Rate of 2.7% and 4.3% for the 2017/18 and 2018/19 seasons, respectively.The surveillance of SARI conduced in one hospital in Rome confirmed that influenza is an important cause of hospital admissions. Routine monitoring of infectious diseases and related aetiology associated with SARI, also at the local-level, is useful for targeting the right preventive measures.