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Introduction: In recent years, conflicts surrounding the use, distribution, and governance of surface water and groundwater in Germany have gained prominence in the media, on the political agenda, and in research. Increasing effects of climate change, such as heatwaves and drought but also extreme rain events and flooding, are considered to become more prominent and pressing in the future by different societal actors. However, it remains highly uncertain if and what type of conflicts related to water quantity Germany might actually face in the future (and how they will be framed). This paper addresses one dimension of this uncertainty—namely the future context uncertainty of possible resource and water governance conflicts. Our research contributes to an improved understanding of the uncertainty concerning future climatic, natural, land use related, political, economic, and other societal contexts that could impact water conflicts. Method: We ask: What are possible coherent context scenarios for Germany in the year 2050, and how are they expected to influence future water conflicts? In an expert-based process, we apply a qualitative and systematic method of systems analysis, cross-impact balances (CIB). With CIB, we build internally consistent scenarios of possible futures and map the future scenario space. Results and discussion: Diversity mapping with a new CIB web application of the ScenarioWizard reveals that the scenario space is rather large and diverse. The identified scenario space of n = 355 internally consistent scenarios spans four most diverse scenarios "Polycrisis," "Economy and agriculture in crisis," "Growth through adaptation to climate change," and "Sustainable transformation." Depending on the development of future contexts, the risk for future water resource and governance conflicts may unfold in various ways. We conclude that our scenario analysis provides a useful base for research and practice to address the context uncertainty of water conflicts in Germany. Our results can be used for risk assessment, to define societal framework assumptions for societal-hydrological modeling, and to develop robust and adaptive strategies and policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Conflicts tend to be complex and, in many cases, multi-faceted. However, by adapting an approach by Vuković, this study illustrates a method for structuring such conflicts, which can facilitate insights that are more profound by dividing them into relevant dimensions of the problem. Given that some conflicts are ongoing and new ones may emerge in certain cases, this study also assesses the potential of using the adapted methodology as a structured basis for constructing scenario analyses. In this study, two cases from Germany on the topic of water are analysed. The first case explores a pair of conflicts that arose within a short period involving a chemical company called Currenta. These conflicts are about a controversial wastewater discharge and an attempt to obtain more water rights, despite the possible future water stress. The second case concerns the Nordheide region, which is favoured for its groundwater reservoir. In recent decades, there has been a growing dispute between the water company and the residents of Nordheide about the possible harmful effects of further water extraction. Both cases illustrate the evolving nature of water conflicts, indicating that they can extend beyond a dispute over distribution. In addition to this key finding, the cases demonstrate the diverging concerns of the actors, as well as the significance of decision-makers involved in these conflicts. A nuanced assessment of water conflicts prior to further action, such as conflict resolution, is therefore encouraged by this study.

Conflicts tend to be complex and, in many cases, multi-faceted. However, by adapting an approach by Vuković, this study illustrates a method for structuring such conflicts, which can facilitate insights that are more profound by dividing them into relevant dimensions of the problem. Given that some conflicts are ongoing and new ones may emerge in certain cases, this study also assesses the potential of using the adapted methodology as a structured basis for constructing scenario analyses. In this study, two cases from Germany on the topic of water are analysed. The first case explores a pair of conflicts that arose within a short period involving a chemical company called Currenta. These conflicts are about a controversial wastewater discharge and an attempt to obtain more water rights, despite the possible future water stress. The second case concerns the Nordheide region, which is favoured for its groundwater reservoir. In recent decades, there has been a growing dispute between the water company and the residents of Nordheide about the possible harmful effects of further water extraction. Both cases illustrate the evolving nature of water conflicts, indicating that they can extend beyond a dispute over distribution. In addition to this key finding, the cases demonstrate the diverging concerns of the actors, as well as the significance of decision-makers involved in these conflicts. A nuanced assessment of water conflicts prior to further action, such as conflict resolution, is therefore encouraged by this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IntroductionIn recent years, conflicts surrounding the use, distribution, and governance of surface water and groundwater in Germany have gained prominence in the media, on the political agenda, and in research. Increasing effects of climate change, such as heatwaves and drought but also extreme rain events and flooding, are considered to become more prominent and pressing in the future by different societal actors. However, it remains highly uncertain if and what type of conflicts related to water quantity Germany might actually face in the future (and how they will be framed). This paper addresses one dimension of this uncertainty—namely the future context uncertainty of possible resource and water governance conflicts. Our research contributes to an improved understanding of the uncertainty concerning future climatic, natural, land use related, political, economic, and other societal contexts that could impact water conflicts.MethodWe ask: What are possible coherent context scenarios for Germany in the year 2050, and how are they expected to influence future water conflicts? In an expert-based process, we apply a qualitative and systematic method of systems analysis, cross-impact balances (CIB). With CIB, we build internally consistent scenarios of possible futures and map the future scenario space.Results and discussionDiversity mapping with a new CIB web application of the ScenarioWizard reveals that the scenario space is rather large and diverse. The identified scenario space of n = 355 internally consistent scenarios spans four most diverse scenarios “Polycrisis,” “Economy and agriculture in crisis,” “Growth through adaptation to climate change,” and “Sustainable transformation.” Depending on the development of future contexts, the risk for future water resource and governance conflicts may unfold in various ways. We conclude that our scenario analysis provides a useful base for research and practice to address the context uncertainty of water conflicts in Germany. Our results can be used for risk assessment, to define societal framework assumptions for societal-hydrological modeling, and to develop robust and adaptive strategies and policies.

Energy infrastructure is the foundation of any modern society, yet decisions on where and how to site this infrastructure can be contentious. This article argues that energy infrastructure siting is illustrative of policy scenarios involving instigators of a proposed policy and defenders of the status quo. Through analyzing natural gas pipelines, electricity transmission lines, solar power plants, and wind power plants, and leveraging a unique dataset of over 1000 newspaper articles on 16 selected cases, we extract discourse over the project life cycle across infrastructure types and conflict intensities. This article delineates policy scenarios involving two primary sets of actors—the proposal instigator (e.g., an energy corporation) and the defender of the status quo (e.g., a community). When higher levels of conflict exist, defenders represent more actors than instigators, as defenders have the advantage of mobilizing and recruiting around the status quo. The frames used by defenders are also more diverse than those used by instigators. Additionally, the balance of discourse is associated with the characteristics of the proposal and conflict intensity, as well as who wins or loses. Related Articles: Ash, John. 2010. "New Nuclear Energy, Risk, and Justice: Regulatory Strategies for an Era of Limited Trust." Politics & Policy 38(2): 255–84. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2010.00237.x Khodr, Hiba, and Isabella Ruble. 2013. "Energy Policies and Domestic Politics in the MENA Region in the Aftermath of the Arab Upheavals: The Cases of Lebanon, Libya, and KSA." Politics & Policy 41(5): 656–89. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12033 Kilinç‐Pala, Pinar Buket. 2021. "Approaches in Energy Exclusive Security: Theories of Energy Security and the Dominance of Realism." Politics & Policy 49(3): 771–94. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12411 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conflict between India and Pakistan is a major source of crisis which must be resolved if peace and development are to prevail in this region. One approach for identifying the costs of conflict and the strategies for minimizing them is the conflict resolution curve model formulated through regret analysis (based on costs). The application of this model in the present context suggests alternative strategies, one being that India should encourage more formal bilateral trade. However, this solution is not feasible given the repeated terrorist attacks on India from Pakistani soil and the suspension of trade ties between the two nations. Another alternative is for India to strengthen its preparedness diplomatically, and this is happening through the Financial Action Task Force and other channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community planners, decision-makers and authorities frequently encounter conflicts revolving around natural resource management as well as around urban planning. Since the 1970s, the dynamics of conflict resolution have evolved from conventional expert-based rational solutions towards collaborative ones. Against this background, our research investigates one contentious groundwater project in the Tampere Region in Finland. Conflict assessment clarified the divergent interests of the multiple parties. Drawing on negotiation theory, this study illustrates how polarised positions and competitive framing, as well as the influence of historical baggage, may form an insurmountable barrier to successful negotiation. While the acknowledgement of various interests should form the heart of the integrative negotiation process, excessive energy is used for argumentation to protect predefined goals with as minor concessions as possible. Addressing the collaborative approach, we suggest multiple ways towards creating mutual gains and cooperation in future water supply projects.

The paper presents a public participation GIS (PPGIS) approach designed to support landscape decision-making by spatially identifying and describing conflict. This method is based on participatory mapping and qualitative interpretation of positive landscape values (stemming from cultural ecosystem services), negative landscape values (derived from landscape factors that negatively influence social perception), and improvement preferences. It is developed and tested using data collected from 53 interviews with local community members from a highly urbanised stream corridor in the Metropolitan Region of Barcelona (Spain). Intensity score maps of positive/negative landscape values are combined according to their significant spatial co-existence. Conflict index maps are computed for each co-existing pair of positive/negative values, delimiting the areas with the highest index values. Qualitative analysis of the improvement preferences identified within these areas contributed to an understanding of the reasons behind these conflicts. Finally, a weighted linear combination of the positive/negative landscape value intensity maps is applied to identify the areas with the highest level of conflict. Therefore, this approach not only produces a spatial delimitation and prioritization of landscape conflict based on context specific landscape values, but it also characterizes the underlying drivers of conflict on the basis of the qualitative understanding of improvement preferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aviation contributes to anthropogenic climate change through carbon dioxide (CO 2) and non-CO 2 emissions. Due to dependency on atmospheric conditions, the non-CO 2 climate impacts can be mitigated using aircraft trajectory optimization. However, adopting independently optimized trajectories may not be operationally feasible for the air traffic management system due to the associated impacts on the safety, demand, and complexity of air traffic. This study aims to explore the effects of employing climate-optimized trajectories on air traffic complexity in terms of the number of conflicts and propose a strategic resolution based on speed change to resolve the conflicts that arise. A scenario with 1005 flights is considered as the case study. The results indicate that the adoption of climate-optimal trajectories increases operational cost and the number of conflicts. Employing the proposed resolution algorithm, it is shown that the conflicts can be resolved by accepting slight increases in climate impact and cost. • The climate impact of non-CO2 emissions can be mitigated by trajectory optimization. • Adopting trajectories with less climate impact increases air traffic complexity. • A strategic resolution is proposed based on speed change to resolve the conflicts. • Employing climate-friendly trajectories reduces the potential to resolve conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community planners, decision-makers and authorities frequently encounter conflicts revolving around natural resource management as well as around urban planning. Since the 1970s, the dynamics of conflict resolution have evolved from conventional expert-based rational solutions towards collaborative ones. Against this background, our research investigates one contentious groundwater project in the Tampere Region in Finland. Conflict assessment clarified the divergent interests of the multiple parties. Drawing on negotiation theory, this study illustrates how polarised positions and competitive framing, as well as the influence of historical baggage, may form an insurmountable barrier to successful negotiation. While the acknowledgement of various interests should form the heart of the integrative negotiation process, excessive energy is used for argumentation to protect predefined goals with as minor concessions as possible. Addressing the collaborative approach, we suggest multiple ways towards creating mutual gains and cooperation in future water supply projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources management is often characterized by conflicts in many arid and semi-arid regions, where agriculture is the main user of groundwater (GW). Conflicts could arise among different decision-makers and stakeholders. Moreover, different policies can interact each other hampering or facilitating their implementation and effectiveness. This contribution describes a new implementation of GeSAP, an integrated modelling tool for enabling local GW management by combining the need for GW protection with socio-economic and behavioural determinants of GW use. GeSAP is based on the involvement of multiple stakeholders and the use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to simulate and explore their attitude relative to GW exploitation and their responses to the introduction of new protection and agricultural policies. In this work, GeSAP was implemented in the area of the Capitanata Irrigation Users Organization, located in the Apulia region (southern Italy). It was used to simulate the reactions of the main stakeholders involved in GW protection policy implementation and to assess the policy's effectiveness in terms of actual reduction of GW exploitation. Furthermore, the interactions between the GW protection policy and the coming reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was investigated. The results of the application proved the capability of the GeSAP tool to assess the actual effectiveness of GW protection policy by investigating how far this policy could be considered acceptable by farmers. In addition, this study demonstrates how the effectiveness of the GW protection policy could be affected by the interaction with the CAP reform. The latter could strongly impact the balance between water demand and availability with the effect of nullifying the positive synergy between CAP and GW protection policy. Although water management issues are not explicitly mentioned among the main scopes of the CAP, this work clearly demonstrates the impact that such policy could have on farmers’ decisions on water use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As energy demand grows rapidly worldwide, power line infrastructure will continue to be a major development planning challenge. This study considers the environmental conflict that has arisen over a transnational transmission line project between Canada and the United States. A qualitative conflict assessment is presented to define the parameters for consensus that could prevent protracted litigation between stakeholders. Proactively designing a process to encourage consensus building during the early development phase remains the most critical determinant of compromise. In this article, we argue that in this case a consensus-building effort could be feasible if certain design requirements were met, including gaining the participation of key stakeholders, paying attention to trust, and focusing on the issues specific to this transmission line rather than to a larger energy discussion. The research shows that despite potential pitfalls, reaching more widely accepted and ecologically sensitive solutions to environmental conflicts through participatory and collaborative approaches is possible and worth the effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cambodia forms part of the Indo-Burma hotspot. Its extent of biodiversity, however, is subject to considerable uncertainty, as there has been little systematic collection of flora and fauna. During the Khmer Rouge regime institutions were banned, academics were prosecuted and written documentation systematically destroyed. Compared with neighbouring countries Cambodia has a low population density and relatively large natural areas that are still intact. However, deforestation is expanding rapidly and a significant but un-estimated area of forest has been degraded by development of agro-industries, encroachment, illegal logging, over-harvesting and forest fire as well as the use of chemicals during war. The purpose of the paper is to: (i) apply reserve selection methods to design more robust conservation networks when knowledge of species occurrence is incomplete and habitat is threatened, and (ii) evaluate the usefulness of systematic conservation planning in a developing country where data are limited and institutions for implementation are weak. This study investigates the performance of four non-probabilistic strategies: (i) a so-called ‘rule of thumb’, (ii) hotspot, (iii) minimum cost representation, and (iv) maximum coverage; and one probabilistic design strategy, i.e. maximum expected coverage. The maximum expected coverage approach is between 15% and 24% more efficient than the non-probabilistic strategies. Finally, the relevance of such tools to real-world conservation planning in Cambodia is investigated. By incorporating experts in the generation of data, running the models and setting up premises, they acknowledge that it is possible to contribute to more systematic conservation planning in developing countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Understanding stakeholders’ perceptions and motivations is of significant importance in relation to conservation and protected area projects. The importance of stakeholder analysis is widely recognized as a necessary means for gaining insight into the complex systemic interactions between natural processes, management policies, and local people depending on the resource. Today, community and group-based participatory inquiry approaches are widely used for this purpose. Recently, participatory approaches have been critiqued for not considering power relations and conflict internal to the community. In this article, we suggest that the five-step Rapid Stakeholder and Conflict Assessment (RSCA) methodology addresses this critique. The objective of the methodology is to provide a facilitator with a comprehensive foundation on which to plan and conduct subsequent participatory project development. The RSCA integrates elements of soft systems and critical systems thinking. Qualitative research interviews and cognitive mapping of stakeholders’ mental models are used for collection of empirical material and analysis. The RSCA methodology is demonstrated in a case study concerning buffer zone management in the coastal wetlands of southern Vietnam. The case study shows that the RSCA methodology can provide an efficient way of obtaining a holistic and critical understanding of a complex resource management situation, thus potentially enhancing project performance in an instrumental as well as an ethical sense. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]