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ObjectivesTo dissect clinical and biological heterogeneity in clinical states of bipolar disorder (BD), and investigate if neuropsychological symptomatology, comorbidity, vital signs, and blood laboratory indicators are predictors of distinct BD states.MethodsA retrospective BD cohort was established with data extracted from a Chinese hospital’s electronic medical records (EMR) between 2009 and 2018. Subjects were inpatients with a main discharge diagnosis of BD and were assessed for clinical state at hospitalization. We categorized all subjects into manic state, depressive state, and mixed state. Four machine learning classifiers were utilized to classify the subjects. A Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm was applied to the classifiers to aid in quantifying and visualizing the contributions of each feature that drive patient-specific classifications.ResultsA sample of 3,085 records was included (38.54% as manic, 56.69% as depressive, and 4.77% as mixed state). Mixed state showed more severe suicidal ideation and psychomotor abnormalities, while depressive state showed more common anxiety, sleep, and somatic-related symptoms and more comorbid conditions. Higher levels of body temperature, pulse, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures were present during manic episodes. Xgboost achieved the best AUC of 88.54% in manic/depressive states classification; Logistic regression and Random forest achieved the best AUCs of 75.5 and 75% in manic/mixed states and depressive/mixed states classifications, respectively. Myocardial enzymes and the non-enzymatic antioxidant uric acid and bilirubin contributed significantly to distinguish BD clinical states.ConclusionThe observed novel biological associations with BD clinical states confirm that biological heterogeneity contributes to clinical heterogeneity of BD.

Abstract Background Quantifying changes in the levels of biological and cognitive markers prior to the clinical presentation of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) will provide a template for understanding the underlying aetiology of the clinical syndrome and, concomitantly, for improving early diagnosis, clinical trial recruitment and treatment assessment. This study aims to characterise continuous changes of such markers and determine their rate of change and temporal order throughout the AD continuum. Methods The methodology is founded on the development of stochastic models to estimate the expected time to reach different clinical disease states, for different risk groups, and synchronise short-term individual biomarker data onto a disease progression timeline. Twenty-seven markers are considered, including a range of cognitive scores, cerebrospinal (CSF) and plasma fluid proteins, and brain structural and molecular imaging measures. Data from 2014 participants in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database is utilised. Results The model suggests that detectable memory dysfunction could occur up to three decades prior to the onset of dementia due to AD (ADem). This is closely followed by changes in amyloid-β CSF levels and the first cognitive decline, as assessed by sensitive measures. Hippocampal atrophy could be observed as early as the initial amyloid-β accumulation. Brain hypometabolism starts later, about 14 years before onset, along with changes in the levels of total and phosphorylated tau proteins. Loss of functional abilities occurs rapidly around ADem onset. Neurofilament light is the only protein with notable early changes in plasma levels. The rate of change varies, with CSF, memory, amyloid PET and brain structural measures exhibiting the highest rate before the onset of ADem, followed by a decline. The probability of progressing to a more severe clinical state increases almost exponentially with age. In accordance with previous studies, the presence of apolipoprotein E4 alleles and amyloid-β accumulation can be associated with an increased risk of developing the disease, but their influence depends on age and clinical state. Conclusions Despite the limited longitudinal data at the individual level and the high variability observed in such data, the study elucidates the link between the long asynchronous pathophysiological processes and the preclinical and clinical stages of AD.

Background: Quantifying changes in the levels of biological and cognitive markers prior to the clinical presentation of Alzheimer's disease (AD) will provide a template for understanding the underlying aetiology of the clinical syndrome and, concomitantly, for improving early diagnosis, clinical trial recruitment and treatment assessment. This study aims to characterise continuous changes of such markers and determine their rate of change and temporal order throughout the AD continuum. Methods: The methodology is founded on the development of stochastic models to estimate the expected time to reach different clinical disease states, for different risk groups, and synchronise short-term individual biomarker data onto a disease progression timeline. Twenty-seven markers are considered, including a range of cognitive scores, cerebrospinal (CSF) and plasma fluid proteins, and brain structural and molecular imaging measures. Data from 2014 participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database is utilised. Results: The model suggests that detectable memory dysfunction could occur up to three decades prior to the onset of dementia due to AD (ADem). This is closely followed by changes in amyloid-β CSF levels and the first cognitive decline, as assessed by sensitive measures. Hippocampal atrophy could be observed as early as the initial amyloid-β accumulation. Brain hypometabolism starts later, about 14 years before onset, along with changes in the levels of total and phosphorylated tau proteins. Loss of functional abilities occurs rapidly around ADem onset. Neurofilament light is the only protein with notable early changes in plasma levels. The rate of change varies, with CSF, memory, amyloid PET and brain structural measures exhibiting the highest rate before the onset of ADem, followed by a decline. The probability of progressing to a more severe clinical state increases almost exponentially with age. In accordance with previous studies, the presence of apolipoprotein E4 alleles and amyloid-β accumulation can be associated with an increased risk of developing the disease, but their influence depends on age and clinical state. Conclusions: Despite the limited longitudinal data at the individual level and the high variability observed in such data, the study elucidates the link between the long asynchronous pathophysiological processes and the preclinical and clinical stages of AD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To dissect clinical and biological heterogeneity in clinical states of bipolar disorder (BD), and investigate if neuropsychological symptomatology, comorbidity, vital signs, and blood laboratory indicators are predictors of distinct BD states., Methods: A retrospective BD cohort was established with data extracted from a Chinese hospital's electronic medical records (EMR) between 2009 and 2018. Subjects were inpatients with a main discharge diagnosis of BD and were assessed for clinical state at hospitalization. We categorized all subjects into manic state, depressive state, and mixed state. Four machine learning classifiers were utilized to classify the subjects. A Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm was applied to the classifiers to aid in quantifying and visualizing the contributions of each feature that drive patient-specific classifications., Results: A sample of 3,085 records was included (38.54% as manic, 56.69% as depressive, and 4.77% as mixed state). Mixed state showed more severe suicidal ideation and psychomotor abnormalities, while depressive state showed more common anxiety, sleep, and somatic-related symptoms and more comorbid conditions. Higher levels of body temperature, pulse, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures were present during manic episodes. Xgboost achieved the best AUC of 88.54% in manic/depressive states classification; Logistic regression and Random forest achieved the best AUCs of 75.5 and 75% in manic/mixed states and depressive/mixed states classifications, respectively. Myocardial enzymes and the non-enzymatic antioxidant uric acid and bilirubin contributed significantly to distinguish BD clinical states., Conclusion: The observed novel biological associations with BD clinical states confirm that biological heterogeneity contributes to clinical heterogeneity of BD., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 Zhu, Kou, Hu, Yuan, Yuan, Luo and Zhang.)

Despite the progressive nature of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, it is observed that many individuals that are diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in one clinical assessment, may return back to normal cognition (CN) in a subsequent assessment. Less frequently, such 'back-transitions' are also observed in people that had already been diagnosed with later stages of dementia. In this study, an analysis was performed on two longitudinal cohort datasets provided by 1) the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and 2) the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Centre (NACC). The focus is on the observed improvement of individuals' clinical condition recorded in these datasets to explore potential associations with different factors. It is shown that, in both datasets, transitions from MCI to CN are significantly associated with younger age, better cognitive function, and the absence of ApoE ɛ4 alleles. Better cognitive function and in some cases the absence of ApoE ɛ4 alleles are also significantly associated with transitions from types of dementia to less severe clinical states. The effect of gender and education is not clear-cut in these datasets, although highly educated people who reach MCI tend to be more likely to show an improvement in their clinical state. The potential effect of other factors such as changes in symptoms of depression is also discussed. Although improved clinical outcomes can be associated with many factors, better diagnostic tools are required to provide insight into whether such improvements are a result of misdiagnosis, and if they are not, whether they are linked to improvements in the underlying neuropathological condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The clinical course of cirrhosis has been typically described by a compensated and a decompensated state based on the absence or, respectively, the presence of any of bleeding, ascites, encephalopathy or jaundice. More recently, it has been recognized that increasing portal hypertension and several major clinical events are followed by a marked worsening in prognosis, and disease states have been proposed accordingly in a multistate model. The development of multistate models implies the assessment of the probabilities of more than one possible outcome from each disease state. This requires the use of competing risks analysis which investigates the risk of several competing outcomes. In such a situation, the Kaplan--Meier risk estimates and the Cox regression may be not appropriate. Clinical states of cirrhosis presently considered as suitable for a comprehensive multistate model include: in compensated cirrhosis, early (mild) portal hypertension with hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) > 5 and < 10 mmHg, clinically significant portal hypertension (HVPG ≥ 10 mmHg) without gastroesophageal varices (GEV), and GEV; in decompensated cirrhosis, a first variceal bleeding without other decompensating events, any first non-bleeding decompensation and any second decompensating event; and in a late decompensation state, refractory ascites, sepsis, renal failure, recurrent encephalopathy, profound jaundice, acute on chronic liver failure, all predicting a very short survival. In this review, we illustrate how competing risks analysis and multistate models may be applied to cirrhosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]