Search

[Display omitted] • U-Pb tuff ages internationally calibrate and correlate Bowen Basin sequences/biozones. • Deep-time climate-change and mass extinction related to arc super-volcanism. • Changhsingian arc volcanism contributed to demise of P4 glaciation and LPME. Eight new high-precision 206Pb/238U CA-IDTIMS ages from the Bowen Basin are integrated with previous CA-IDTIMS ages to further the calibration of Lopingian sequences that record a period of climatic change, extensive volcanism and mass extinction. Numerous tuffs occur within the late Permian as the basin develops and shifts towards increasingly terrestrial sedimentation and coal measures which record a series of super-eruptions spanning c. 2.5 million years between ∼254 and 252 Ma. One, the Yarrabee Tuff, represents a basin-wide event that has been used as a correlative surface, previously dated at a number of locations as 252.88 ± 0.07 Ma. These correspond to the Eastern Australia magmatic arc flare-up peaking at c. 253 Ma. A new CA-IDTIMS age is reported from the (upper) Black Alley Shale, at 257.8 ± 1.2 Ma (upper Black Alley). The Wuchiapingian-Changhsingian Boundary is in the lower Black Alley Shale. The Black Alley Shale/Peawaddy boundary is marked by the Micrhystridium evansii Acritarch Acme Zone and "Mantuan Productus Beds" here dated to c. 254.5 Ma (latest Wuchiapingian). This level and age may also mark the termination of the P4 glaciation of the Late Paleozoic Ice Age. Our Fort Cooper Coal age of 256.0 ± 1.4 Ma is consistent with ages from the Peawaddy and Tinowan formations. The Platypus Tuff, dated 256.58 ± 0.73 Ma, is another basin-wide marker of mid-Wuchiapingian age and represents a major super-volcanic event. The top of the Ingelara Formation is dated by our age of 257.33 ± 0.52 Ma. The Protohaploxypinus microcorpus and Playfordiaspora crenulata palynozones are of late Changhsingian age. The Permian-Triassic Boundary is placed in the lower Rewan Group and within the lower Lunatisporites pellucidus Zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the midlatitudes of the planet, we are facing the imminent disappearance of one of our best high-resolution (pre)historic climate and anthropogenic pollution archives, namely the loss of glacial ice, through accelerated global warming. To capture these records and interpret these vanishing archives, it is imperative that we extract ice-cores from midlatitude regions where glaciers still survive and analyse them within frameworks of inter-disciplinary research. In this paper, we focus on Georgia, part of the Greater Caucasus. Results of ice-core analyses from the region have never, to date, been integrated with its other abundant palaeo-environmental, archaeological and historical sources. We review the results of international projects on palaeo-environmental/geoarchaeological sediment archives, the archaeology of metal economies and preliminary ice-core data in Georgia. Collectively, we show that the different strands need to be integrated to fully explore relationships between climate/landscape change and human societal transformations. We then introduce an inclusive interdisciplinary framework for ongoing research on these themes, with an ultimate future goal of using data from the past to inform societal resilience strategies in the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance and vulnerability of municipalities in the eastern Amazon led to the evaluation of the distribution of seasonal precipitation and extreme events over protected and deforested sites along the Carajás Railroad (EFC) based on three datasets: Brazilian Daily Weather Gridded Data (BR-DWGD), European Reanalysis (ERA5-Land), and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS). The main purpose is the understanding of the relationship between local land use change and the occurrence of extreme climate events. Results suggested that large-scale deforestation has a regional impact occasionally outweighing local effect. Significant trends reveal a general pattern of drought that has been more intense in the north of the study area, regardless of land cover, whether preserved or deforested. Moreover, the dry season is getting drier, but the wet season is not getting wetter over the entire area, as Carajás National Forest and Curionópolis (southern sector) deliver positive and accentuated trends in the rainy season. Extreme events are becoming more frequent. The number of consecutive dry days has increased in the north revealing an extension of dry periods, whereas, the maximum one-day precipitation has soared in the south indicating the intensification of rainfall. CHIRPS provides stronger correlations with the standard dataset (BR-DWGD), as both furnish primary data based on rain gauges observations. It also outperforms ERA5-Land in annual and seasonal analyses, which does not invalidate the latter as a great alternative to use in data-poor locations. Ultimately, further research and technology implementation were recommended to improve reforestation efforts given the reported results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Young people both are and will be greatly affected by climate change, an insight which can trigger a range of stressful emotions concerning the future. How young people cope with climate change as a stressor can be of importance for both moral responsibility and climate-change engagement. People often use a combination of coping strategies; however, the focus thus far has merely been on isolated coping strategies. Using a person-centered approach, the aim of this study was to examine: (1) patterns of climate-change coping among late adolescents and (2) if late adolescents characterized by unique patterns of coping differ regarding emotions concerning the future (worry, pessimism, optimism), moral responsibility, and climate-change engagement (outcome expectancy and climate-friendly food choices). A questionnaire study was conducted with 474 Swedish senior high-school students (16–22 years old, mean age: 17.91). A cluster analysis revealed three unique patterns of coping: The solution-oriented group (43%, high on problem- and meaning-focused coping), the avoidant group (33%, high on de-emphasizing and meaning-focused coping), and the uninvolved group (24%, low on all coping strategies). The solution-oriented group differed from the other two groups in reporting more climate-change worry, moral responsibility, outcome expectancy, and climate-friendly food choices. The uninvolved group reported more climate-change worry, moral responsibility, and climate-friendly food choices than the avoidant group, and the least optimism. The avoidant group was the least pessimistic. Our results reveal the importance of exploring patterns of climate-change coping to understand young people’s engagement concerning this global threat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study assesses the potential macro-economic effects of climate change affecting operations in three maritime chokepoints, i.e., the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Turkish Straits. The analysis focuses on agricultural commodities. It couples a “logistics” model of maritime trade flows with a Computable General Equilibrium model considering three modelling alternatives: (1) increase of “iceberg trade costs”, (2) shadow import tariffs, and (3) shadow export tariffs. Methodologically, we found a comforting qualitative agreement across methodologies in predicting the direction of changes in the main economic variables under scrutiny. However, negative GDP performances are more frequent and larger using the first method that also tends to predict lower import contractions than the other two methods. The impact assessment, examining storylines of climate-change-induced events delaying chokepoints operations, highlights that climate change impacts on chokepoints’ operations can convey detectable effects on production and prices of agricultural commodities associated with negative GDP impacts worldwide. In addition, although trade re-composition generates winners and losers, total losses tend to prevail. The combined GDP losses of the three chokepoints can reach $34 billion (2014 prices) in 2030. It shows that weather events in remote locations, such as the Panama Canal, can have cascading effects on the EU, with potential losses of USD 2 billion $ in GDP. North Africa, Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable. They suffer from a drop in imports of agricultural commodities and GDP losses in all the three cases. This impact assessment emphasizes another mechanism at play that could increase the asymmetry and the adverse distributional impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Flooding is a severe climate-related threat to rural livelihoods and poverty levels in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), particularly affecting vulnerable smallholder farmers. This systematic review aims to provide future research directions on the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to flooding, poverty, and coping strategies in LMICs. Specifically, the study evaluates methodologies used to assess vulnerability to flooding, its links to poverty, and identifies coping strategies employed by smallholder farmers to mitigate the impacts of flood-induced vulnerability on their livelihoods and well-being. Following the PRISMA procedure, 19 relevant studies were identified across five database searches. The findings revealed the wide use of vulnerability indices that incorporate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to assess varying risks across localities and social groups, with strong links found between vulnerability and multidimensional poverty. Floods worsen income poverty, food insecurity, and socioeconomic inefficiency, hindering Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1 and 2 progress. Common coping strategies include livelihood diversification, social capital networks, migration, loans, asset liquidation, and disaster aid, which help mitigate shocks but need strengthening to contribute to SDGs 13 and 15 targets. Key evidence gaps are individual-level/farmer vulnerability, quantitative modelling of flood-poverty linkages, assessing the impact of coping strategies on poverty, and understanding Indigenous practices. Strengthening the adaptation-development linkage through comprehensive interventions and research collaborations is crucial for enhancing farmer resilience. This review provides valuable insights for researchers and stakeholders to advance conceptual understanding and inform policies aimed at reducing the climatic and socioeconomic vulnerabilities of farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the potential macro-economic effects of climate change affecting operations in three maritime chokepoints, i.e., the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Turkish Straits. The analysis focuses on agricultural commodities. It couples a "logistics" model of maritime trade flows with a Computable General Equilibrium model considering three modelling alternatives: (1) increase of "iceberg trade costs", (2) shadow import tariffs, and (3) shadow export tariffs. Methodologically, we found a comforting qualitative agreement across methodologies in predicting the direction of changes in the main economic variables under scrutiny. However, negative GDP performances are more frequent and larger using the first method that also tends to predict lower import contractions than the other two methods. The impact assessment, examining storylines of climate-change-induced events delaying chokepoints operations, highlights that climate change impacts on chokepoints' operations can convey detectable effects on production and prices of agricultural commodities associated with negative GDP impacts worldwide. In addition, although trade re-composition generates winners and losers, total losses tend to prevail. The combined GDP losses of the three chokepoints can reach $34 billion (2014 prices) in 2030. It shows that weather events in remote locations, such as the Panama Canal, can have cascading effects on the EU, with potential losses of USD 2 billion $ in GDP. North Africa, Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable. They suffer from a drop in imports of agricultural commodities and GDP losses in all the three cases. This impact assessment emphasizes another mechanism at play that could increase the asymmetry and the adverse distributional impacts of climate change on agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant diseases pose a severe threat to the food security of the global human population. One such disease is Fusarium wilt, which affects many plant species and causes up to 100% yield losses. Fusarium pathogen has high variability in its genetic constitution; therefore, it has evolved into different physiological races to infect different plant species spread across the different geographical regions of the world. The pathogen mainly affects plant roots, leading to colonizing and blocking vascular bundle cells, specifically xylem vessels. This blocking results in chlorosis, vascular discoloration, leaf wilting, shortening of plant, and, in severe cases, premature plant death. Due to the soil-borne nature of the wilt pathogen, neither agronomic nor plant protection measures effectively reduce the incidence of the disease. Therefore, the most cost-effective management strategy for Fusarium wilt is developing varieties resistant to a particular race of the fungus wilt prevalent in a given region. This strategy requires understanding the pathogen, its disease cycle, and epidemiology with climate-changing scenarios. Hence, in the review, we will discuss the pathogenic aspect and genetics of the Fusarium wilt, including molecular interventions for developing climate-smart wilt tolerant/resistant varieties of crops. Overall, this review will add to our knowledge for advancing the breeding of resistance against the wilt pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ambient temperature has a crucial effect on livestock production performance, behaviors and welfare. In ostrich, previous research primarily focused on survival and reproductive performance during the climatic shifts. This study was carried out to investigate the effect of seasonal variation on behavioral differences of male and female ostrich (Struthio camelus) breeders, reared in farm environment. The individual behaviors related to digestion, locomotor activities, resting, comfort and thermoregulation, reproduction, and aggressive behaviors were recorded. The higher sitting and sleeping behavior were observed in summer season (P=0.01 and P=0.001, respectively). The thermoregulation behaviors were observed only in summer season (P=0.0001). The higher foraging, alertness and spot pecking behaviors were observed in females (P=0.01, P=0.05, and P=0.05, respectively). The boom behavior was only observed in males (P=0.05). The higher walking behavior was observed in the afternoon and morning (P=0.05). The higher sleeping, dust bathing, grooming and thermoregulation behaviors were observed at noon (P=0.001, P=0.001, P=0.0001 and P=0.0001, respectively). There was a significant interaction between season and sex for displace behavior, a sign of aggressive behavior (P=0.006). There was a significant interaction between season and time of day for drinking and defecation related to digestive behaviors (P=0.05 and P=0.05, respectively); sleeping described as a resting behavior (P=0.0001); dust bathing and grooming which is related to comfort behaviors (P=0.0001 and P=0.0001); thermoregulation (P=0.0001); copulation described as a reproductive behavior (P=0.003); displace and escape behaviors mostly a sign of aggressive behavior (P=0.05 and P=0.05). Ostriches are diurnal animals with a nomadic lifestyle and have higher activity during the early and late times of the day. Identification of the seasonal, sexual and time of day differences on behavior types of ostriches, provides important information for ostrich management and their welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pastures represent about half of the global agricultural area and productivity losses from weeds are significant. The complex interactions between them and other pasture plants, livestock and the environment imply a need for innovative research that transforms pasture management. To this end, a horizon scan was conducted to identify relevant issues, questions, opportunities, and drivers. The drivers were ranked using three criteria: (1) is this a horizon (is the driver likely to become important in 10–20 years?); (2) will the research require stretchy science (is it currently not well addressed by the science community?); (3) is the research transformative (will successful scientific research in this area lead to significant changes to weed management in pastures?). We identified 11 major issues and 46 subordinate ones. The three highest ranked major issues were: (1) anticipated reductions in access to herbicides; (2) rethinking weed management under an ecosystem services paradigm; (3) responding to shifts in best practice and the regulations that are altering farm system planning to reduce farming's environmental impacts. We conclude that fundamental interdisciplinary research is needed that addresses biosecurity and weed management issues, while reducing the environmental footprint of farming and maintaining productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rice is a vital staple food, especially in Asia, but it is highly susceptible to drought, leading to significant yield losses. To ensure food sustainability, drought-tolerant rice varieties are essential. Conventional breeding methods improve drought tolerance by focusing on biometric traits like root depth, avoidance, escape, and tolerance. This involves screening and crossing droughttolerant varieties with high-yielding ones, followed by selection and evaluation. Techniques such as pedigree selection, recurrent selection, and backcrossing introduce desirable genes to enhance drought tolerance. Induced mutation through radiation exposure is also used. The molecular basis of drought tolerance involves identifying and manipulating genes responsible for rice's response to water stress. Techniques like QTL analysis, transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics identify genes and QTLs associated with drought tolerance. Important genes involved in drought response include DREB, LEA, and ROS scavenging genes. Identifying QTLs enables the development of molecular markers for efficient screening of drought-tolerant rice genotypes. In conclusion, conventional breeding and molecular approaches are employed to develop drought-tolerant rice varieties. Conventional breeding improves biometric traits, while molecular techniques identify and manipulate specific genes associated with drought tolerance. This combination holds promise for high-yielding and drought-tolerant rice cultivars, contributing to global food security. However, further research is needed to understand the complex genetic mechanisms underlying drought tolerance in rice and enhance breeding precision and efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to explore how vulnerable communities, scientists, and artists can collaborate to construct digital community memories to excavate opinion spaces related to socio-natural events, creating a shared and inclusive ground for mutual understanding and collective action. The proposed approach combines web archeology and digital artivism to construct community memories that can be used for social activation in relation to climate change. The research draws on participatory and community-based research techniques, citizen-science approaches, and digital methods to collect dispersed community-memory fragments and create an expressive space for the diverse perspectives and needs of the affected populations. It emphasises the importance of inclusivity and non-polarizing approaches for reconstructing and interpreting narrative streams that propagate in the physical and virtual world, and for representing, through digital art, extreme events and their societal impact. To illustrate the proposed approach, the AquaGranda project is here presented as a case study of community memory related to an extreme event: the high tides that occurred in Venice in November 2019.

The islands of the Caribbean are particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change due to their low-lying coastal areas and location within the Atlantic basin's hurricane belt. The UK Overseas Territory of Anguilla is one such island. The predicted increase in the severity of hurricanes and sea-level rise is highly likely to increase the flood risk of already vulnerable island communities. In this study, flood risk and erosion models are used to prioritise opportunity areas for nature-based restoration and to identify those that would have the greatest impact on coastal and in-land flood risk reduction. Two study sites in Anguilla were selected to highlight this ecologically-based modelling approach; Cove Bay and Pond, a degraded sand dune system and brackish pond, and the East End Pond, an Important Bird and Biodiversity Area that floods following heavy rainfall events. At the coastal site, the restoration of mangroves, sand dunes and coral reefs have the potential to provide flood risk reduction up to 500 m inland and protect homes, infrastructure and tourism developments. For the in-land East End Pond, areas of high erosion risk were predominately identified as bare or disturbed land within 1 km of the pond's basin. Habitat restoration of these areas was identified as having the greatest impact on reducing flood risk. The creation of flood risk, opportunity and impact models are invaluable tools that can be used to inform, advocate and justify the implementation of nature-based solutions to a range of stakeholders from policy-makers to local communties.

Climate changes manifest itself through increased temperature, a more variable rainfall and more extreme events. As a matter of fact, smallholder farmers who produce climate-sensitive crop-livestock species are among the most affected to it due to reliance on rainfall, inadequate use of irrigation, and weak adaptive capacity. Accordingly, there are little evidences that reveals climate change is causing multi-dimensional poverty among mixed crop-livestock smallholders. Thus, this study was aimed at analyzing climate change-induced multidimensional poverty and its factors which contribute to it. Thus, data from households on socio-economic and environmental issues and thirty years rainfall and temperature data were collected. At the meantime, multi-dimensional poverty index, probit model, parametric test were applied to analyze data along with descriptive statistics. Accordingly, eleven variables showed statistically significant differences between poor and non-poor. Furthermore, the temperature in the study area was increased but rainfall trend decreased overtime. Since the livelihood of smallholder farmers is extremely dependent on rain-fed agriculture, the change in these climatic parameters negatively affected their livelihood. On the other hand, using a multidimensional-based measure of poverty; the estimates show that 82% of the sample households were multi-dimensionally poor. The incidence of poverty was highest in Abala Gefeta village (89%) followed by Bossa Wanche (80%) and Abala Shoya (84%). The result of probit regression estimation procedure revealed that variables such as access to climate information, productive safety net program and off/non-farm income at (1%), credit amount gained at (5%), sex, utilizing improved agricultural technologies and livestock holding at (10%) affects climate change-induced poverty negatively and significantly. Therefore, it is concluded that climate change-induced poverty of crop-livestock smallholders would be reduced through improving agricultural technology utilization by the farmers and providing timely climatic information and putting early warning system in place.

This research delves into the multifaceted repercussions of climate change on ecosystems and communities, employing a comprehensive assessment of empirical statistics and scholarly literature. Through meticulous analysis, it reveals that biodiversity loss, changes in hydrological patterns, and shifts in species distribution are resulting in huge ecological transformations. Considerably, the study finds that global warming has led to a amazing 8,532-unit reduction in deciduous forests and a remarkable 12,052-unit increase in shrublands from 1985 to 2019. Moreover, the increament in open water bodies by means of 1,151 units underscores the dynamic nature of environmental shifts. Those modifications have profound implications for human health and well-being, with the capacity to disrupt livelihoods and socio-economic systems.

Climate change is expected to raise river discharge and sea level in the future, and these near-term changes could alter the river flow regime and sedimentation pattern of future floods. Present hazard assessment studies have limitations in considering such morpho-dynamic responses in evaluating flood hazards or risks. Here, we present a multi-model-based approach to quantify such potential hazard parameters influenced by climate change for the most vulnerable communities living on river bars and islands of the Brahmaputra–Jamuna River. River flood-flow and flood wave propagation characteristics are predicted to be affected by changing temporal distribution patterns of precipitation as a result of enhanced global warming. Increased incidences of large multi-peak floods or uncommon floods resulting in long-duration floods driven by sea-level rise may happen as a result of this. To assess it, we have set up a hydromorphic model, Delft3D, for the Brahmaputra–Jamuna River forced by upstream flow, generated from a hydrological model SWAT, over the Brahmaputra basin. The simulations cover moderate, wettest, and driest conditions of the RCP8.5 scenario, and the results reflect the flooding consequences of the near-future, mid-century, and end-century. Floods in the Brahmaputra–Jamuna River are becoming more severe, frequent, and long-lasting, as a result of climate change, and are expected to last until the end of November rather than the current September timeline. While assessing the hazard, we found that the pattern and timing of the flood are as equally important as the peak of the flood, as the river continuously adjusts its cross-sectional area with the flow. The study also demonstrates that, depending on their location/position, climate-induced hazards can affect sand bars/islands disproportionally. The high flood depth, duration, and sedimentation have a significant impact on the sand bars downstream of the river, making them more vulnerable.

Abstract Background Climate change has significant implications for health, yet healthcare provision itself contributes significant greenhouse gas emission. Medical students need to be prepared to address impacts of the changing environment and fulfil a key role in climate mitigation. Here we evaluate the effectiveness of an online module on climate-change and sustainability in clinical practice designed to achieve learning objectives adapted from previously established sustainable healthcare priority learning outcomes. Methods A multi-media, online module was developed, and 3rd and 4th year medical students at Brighton and Sussex Medical School were invited to enrol. Students completed pre- and post-module questionnaires consisting of Likert scale and white space answer questions. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of responses was performed. Results Forty students enrolled and 33 students completed the module (83% completion rate). There was a significant increase in reported understanding of key concepts related to climate change and sustainability in clinical practice (p

It has been generally established that the global food system needs to be transformed urgently, in order to meet the growing demand for food, feed and fodder. Agroforestry is a type of farming system that combines trees/shrubs with crops with the objective of enjoying a mutual benefit that enhances productivity, profitability and biodiversity, which at the moment is unpopular in Nigeria. Therefore the objective of this paper is to provide relevant information on the role of agroforestry in transforming the Nigerian food system. Some of the agroforestry technologies which can be used to achieve its mutual benefit include taungya system, home garden, alley cropping, improved fallow, woodlots, live fences, fodder banks, orchards or tree gardens, windbreaks, shelterbelts, trees on pasture and apiculture with trees. Planting trees as a component of crop farming is a smart way to achieve multiple purposes with a single enterprise. Planting multipurpose trees in a world affected by climate change can decelerate the negative impact of anthropogenic cause of climate change, while providing food for humanity. Hence, the paper also review the roles of agroforestry in the global fight against climate change, while also ensuring food security through food system transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been generally established that the global food system needs to be transformed urgently, in order to meet the growing demand for food, feed and fodder. Agroforestry is a type of farming system that combines trees/shrubs with crops with the objective of enjoying a mutual benefit that enhances productivity, profitability and biodiversity, which at the moment is unpopular in Nigeria. Therefore the objective of this paper is to provide relevant information on the role of agroforestry in transforming the Nigerian food system. Some of the agroforestry technologies which can be used to achieve its mutual benefit include taungya system, home garden, alley cropping, improved fallow, woodlots, live fences, fodder banks, orchards or tree gardens, windbreaks, shelterbelts, trees on pasture and apiculture with trees. Planting trees as a component of crop farming is a smart way to achieve multiple purposes with a single enterprise. Planting multipurpose trees in a world affected by climate change can decelerate the negative impact of anthropogenic cause of climate change, while providing food for humanity. Hence, the paper also review the roles of agroforestry in the global fight against climate change, while also ensuring food security through food system transformation.

This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow characteristics of five tropical catchments located in Costa Rica. An ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs), namely HadGEM2-ES, CanESM2, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR dynamically downscaled by two Regional Climate Models (RCMs), specifically HadRM3P and RCA4, was selected to provide an overview of the impacts of different climate change scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 using the 1961–1990 baseline period. The GR2M hydrological model was used to reproduce the historical monthly surface runoff patterns of each catchment. Following calibration and validation of the GRM2 model, the projected impact of climate change on streamflow was simulated for a near-future (2011–2040), mid-future (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) for each catchment using the bias-corrected GCM-RCM multimodel ensemble-mean (MEM). Results anticipate wetter conditions for all catchments in the near-future and mid-future periods under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, whereas dryer conditions are expected for the far-future period under RCP 8.5. Projected temperature trends indicate consistently warmer conditions with increasing radiative forcing and future periods. Streamflow changes across all catchments however are dominated by variations in projected precipitation. Wetter conditions for the near-future and mid-future horizons under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5 would result in higher runoff volumes, particularly during the late wet season (LWS). Conversely, dryer conditions for the far-future period under RCP8.5 would result in considerably lower runoff volumes during the early wet season (EWS) and the Mid-Summer Drought (MSD). In consequence, projected seasonal changes on streamflow across all catchments may result in more frequent flooding, droughts, and water supply shortage compared to historical hydrological regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the interacting role of climate and habitat in shaping wildlife population dynamics can help to reveal synergistic pathways that drive population resilience or decline across variable and changing environments. Moose (Alces alces) is a pan-boreal herbivore experiencing population declines across large portions of North America; however, the species has shown variable response to climate across its distribution. We investigated moose demographic response to climate and evaluated the interacting role of habitat across 36 years and along a biogeographic gradient in Ontario, Canada that has experienced decadal changes to climate and habitat quality. Moose density exhibited a nonlinear trend that initially increased and then decreased over the study timeframe and was negatively affected by regional and local patterns of winter severity and later frost onset. Recruitment exhibited a monotonic decline and was positively affected by spring heat and deciduous forest cover, while also exhibiting density-dependent effects. The negative response of moose density to winter severity was reduced in Wildlife Management Units (WMUs) with higher proportions of dense canopy cover, supporting expectations that this habitat type improves moose winter mobility and predator avoidance. The negative effect of later frost onset was greater in WMUs with more regenerating forest, and both variables are associated with higher exposure to parasites and predators. Further, density-dependent effects on recruitment were suppressed by warmer springs that support vegetation productivity and in WMUs with higher proportions of dense canopy cover that can provide concealment from predators. Our study illustrates the important role habitat conditions can have to mitigate, or exacerbate, climate-change effects for a wide-spread herbivore occupying variable environments by potentially altering pathways relevant to energetic balance, predation, and parasite transmission. In this system, moose occupying sparse or regenerating forests are more susceptible to adverse climatic effects and should be managed accordingly.

Climate and land cover changes are the two most important stressors causing the decline of amphibians’ populations worldwide. Within the Mediterranean area, one of the global biodiversity hotspots, the endemic Italian yellow-bellied toad (Bombina pachypus) suffered the same fate, as the decreases and local extinctions proved over time. Since the need to preserve this Apennine endemic species is evident, we take advantage of a novel approach combining climate-based ecological niche models and post-modelling GIS techniques (i.e., the weighted overlay framework) to produce finer species distribution models for B. pachypus. In doing so, we coupled climate variables with topographic-, hydrologic-, and habitat-related predictors, sharpening the potential species’ distribution at its whole range scale. Our findings show a latitudinal subdivision in predicted suitability: Central Apennines populations are expected to suffer more than the Northern ones, with considerable potential future losses of genetic diversity. On the contrary, Southern Apennines’ suitability is predicted to remain stable over time, preserving the vast diversity. When assessing the coverage that protected areas offer to the locations of suitable habitats for B. pachypus, the protected sites of the Central Apennines result in slightly less suitable conservation areas than those in the Northern and Southern Apennines. The overall protected areas coverage is currently low (∼20%) and predicted in the future to narrow towards medium suitability values, except in Southern Apennines, where an increase is inferred. In light of our spatially-explicit results, we suggest that a national-scale conservation strategy should consider different management options according to the sub-territories that our analyses highlighted. Our coupled “weighted modelling – spatialised genetic inference” approach permits us to support different conservation policies at all spatial scales, capitalising on relatively few input data. Also, in-depth spatial analyses should be performed to support effective protection strategies and management for the conservation stakeholders.

Background: Climate change has significant implications for health, yet healthcare provision itself contributes significant greenhouse gas emission. Medical students need to be prepared to address impacts of the changing environment and fulfil a key role in climate mitigation. Here we evaluate the effectiveness of an online module on climate-change and sustainability in clinical practice designed to achieve learning objectives adapted from previously established sustainable healthcare priority learning outcomes. Methods: A multi-media, online module was developed, and 3rd and 4th year medical students at Brighton and Sussex Medical School were invited to enrol. Students completed pre- and post-module questionnaires consisting of Likert scale and white space answer questions. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of responses was performed. Results: Forty students enrolled and 33 students completed the module (83% completion rate). There was a significant increase in reported understanding of key concepts related to climate change and sustainability in clinical practice (p < 0.001), with proportion of students indicating good or excellent understanding increasing from between 2 – 21% students to between 91 – 97% students. The majority (97%) of students completed the module within 90 min. All students reported the module was relevant to their training. Thematic analysis of white space responses found students commonly reported they wanted access to more resources related to health and healthcare sustainability, as well as further guidance on how to make practical steps towards reducing the environmental impact within a clinical setting. Conclusion: This is the first study to evaluate learner outcomes of an online module in the field of sustainable health and healthcare. Our results suggest that completion of the module was associated with significant improvement in self-assessed knowledge of key concepts in climate health and sustainability. We hope this approach is followed elsewhere to prepare healthcare staff for impacts of climate change and to support improving the environmental sustainability of healthcare delivery. Trial registration: Study registered with Brighton and Sussex Medical School Research Governance and Ethics Committee (BSMS RGEC). Reference: ER/BSMS3576/8, Date: 4/3/2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Erosion of landscapes underlaid by permafrost can transform sediment and nutrient fluxes, surface and subsurface hydrology, soil properties, and rates of permafrost thaw, thus changing ecosystems and carbon emissions in high latitude regions with potential implications for global climate. However, future rates of erosion and sediment transport are difficult to predict as they depend on complex interactions between climatic and environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, permafrost, vegetation, wildfires, and hydrology. Thus, despite the potential influence of erosion on the future of the Arctic and global systems, the relations between erosion‐rate and these parameters, as well as their relative importance, remain largely unquantified. Here we quantify these relations based on a sedimentary record from Burial Lake, Alaska, one of the richest datasets of Arctic lake deposits. We apply a set of bi‐ and multi‐variate techniques to explore the association between the flux of terrigenous sediments into the lake (a proxy for erosion‐rate) and a variety of biogeochemical sedimentary proxies for paleoclimatic and environmental conditions over the past 25 cal ka BP. Our results show that erosion‐rate is most strongly associated with temperature and vegetation proxies, and that erosion‐rate decreases with increased temperature, pollen‐counts, and abundance of pollen from shrubs and trees. Other proxies, such as those associated with fire frequency, aeolian dust supply, mass wasting and hydrologic conditions, play a secondary role. The marginal effects of the sedimentary‐proxies on erosion‐rate are often threshold dependent, highlighting the potential for strong non‐linear changes in erosion in response to future changes in Arctic conditions. Plain Language Summary: Erosion of landscapes underlaid by permafrost can transform arctic environments by changing topography, hydrology and rates of permafrost thaw. These changes can influence the entire arctic ecosystem as well as green house gas emissions from permafrost soils that can affect global climate. However, future rates of erosion are difficult to predict as they depend on complex interactions between climatic and environmental parameters such as temperature, permafrost, vegetation, wildfires, and hydrology. This complexity hinders assessments of the relations between erosion‐rate and these parameters, and hence these relations as well as the relative importance of these different parameters remain largely unquantified. We used a lake sediment record as an archive for erosion from an upland Arctic watershed over the last 25,000 years. Results show that erosion‐rate is most strongly associated with temperature and vegetation‐related conditions, and that erosion‐rate decreases with increase in temperature, pollen counts, and pollen‐based proxy for the abundance of trees and shrubs increase. The effects of environmental conditions on erosion‐rate often change abruptly across some threshold values, highlighting the potential for strong changes in erosion in response to future changes in Arctic conditions. Key Points: Erosion‐rate is more strongly associated with temperature and vegetation than with wildfires, mass wasting and hydrologic conditionsErosion‐rate meaningfully decreases with increased temperature, vegetation abundance, and relative abundance of trees and shrubsThe association between erosion‐rate to changes in climatic and environmental conditions is often threshold dependent [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In corals, pH regulation of the extracellular calcifying medium (ECM) by the calcifying cell layer is a crucial step in the calcification process and is potentially important to influencing how corals respond to ocean acidification. Here, we analyzed the growing edge of the reef coral Stylophora pistillata to make the first characterization of the proton gradient across the coral calcifying epithelium. At seawater pH 8 we found that while the calcifying epithelium elevates pH in the ECM on its apical side above that of seawater, pH on its basal side in the mesoglea is markedly lower, highlighting that the calcifying cells are exposed to a microenvironment distinct from the external environment. Coral symbiont photosynthesis elevates pH in the mesoglea, but experimental ocean acidification and decreased seawater inorganic carbon concentration lead to large declines in mesoglea pH relative to the ECM, which is maintained relatively stable. Together, our results indicate that the coral calcifying epithelium is functionally polarized and that environmental variation impacts pHECM regulation through its effects on the basal side of the calcifying cells.

Climate variability and change pose significant threats to aquatic biodiversity, particularly in areas with low and variable streamflow. Quantifying the magnitude of risk from these threats is made more difficult by the variable responses of individual species to hydrologic stress. Patterns of population decline and recovery in response to drought cycles will depend on both the resistance traits (e.g., tolerance to harsh environmental conditions) and resilience traits (e.g., fecundity, age at maturity), both of which vary considerably among species. Collectively these traits can give rise to varied, and lagged patterns of decline and recovery in response to hydrologic variability, which ultimately can affect population viability in drought prone environments and in response to a changing climate. Such population cycles are typically modelled based on demographic rates (mortality and recruitment) under different climate conditions. However, such models are relatively data intensive, limiting their widespread development. A less precise but more tractable approach is to adopt state-and-transition approaches based on semi-quantitative population states (or population size estimates), and modelled transitions between states under different hydrologic conditions. Here we demonstrate the application of such models to a suite of diverse taxa, based on an expert elicitation of expected state-changes across those different taxa under a range of different flow conditions. The model results broadly conform with population changes observed in response to a major drought in the case-study system, mimicking the observed lags in recovery of species with different life-histories. Stochastic simulations of population cycles under scenarios of more protracted drought provide a semi-quantitative measure of the potential risk to different species under each scenario, as well as highlighting the large uncertainties that can arise when taking into account stochastic (rather than deterministic) state-transitions.

Optimal reproductive performance occurs when birds time reproduction to coincide with peak food availability. Deviation from optimal timing, or mismatch, can affect productivity, though birds may mediate some mismatch effects by altering their incubation behavior. We studied the consequences of nesting timing (i.e., clutch initiation relative to an index of spring start) on productivity across the breeding range of American kestrels (Falco sparverius) in the United States and southern Canada, and associations between nesting timing, incubation behavior, and hatching asynchrony. We used observations from long-term nest box monitoring, remote trail cameras, and community-scientist-based programs to obtain data on clutch initiation, productivity, incubation, and hatching synchrony. Kestrels that initiated clutches after the extended spring index (SI-x, start of spring estimate) had higher rates of nest failure and fewer nestlings than earlier nesters, and effects of nesting timing on productivity were strongest in the Northeast. In contrast, kestrels in the Southwest experienced a more gradual decline in productivity across the season. Spatial effects may be the result of regional differences in growing seasons and temporal nesting windows (duration of nesting season). Specifically, resource availability in the Northeast was highly peaked during the breeding season, potentially resulting in shorter nesting windows. Conversely, resource curves were more prolonged in the Southwest, and growing seasons are becoming longer with climate change, potentially resulting in longer nesting windows. We found an inverse relationship between nesting timing and the onset of male incubation. Males from breeding pairs that initiated clutches after SI-x began incubation sooner than males from breeding pairs that initiated clutches before SI-x. Early-onset of male incubation was positively associated with hatching asynchrony, creating increased age variation in developing young. In sum, nesting phenology relative to the SI-x has consequences for American kestrels’ productivity, and these consequences vary across space. The early onset of incubation may act as a potential adaptive behavior to advance the average hatch date and spread out energetic demands. Given the effects of nesting timing on productivity, kestrels are likely to be sensitive to climate-driven advances in growing seasons and vulnerable to phenological mismatch, particularly in the Northeast.

In the face of the rapidly dwindling carbon budgets, negative emission technologies are widely suggested as required to stabilize the Earth’s climate. However, finding cost-effective, socially acceptable, and politically achievable means to enable such technologies remains a challenge. We propose solutions based on negative emission technologies to facilitate wealth creation for the stakeholders while helping to mitigate climate change. This paper comes up with suggestions and guidelines on significantly increasing carbon sequestration in coffee farms. A coffee and jackfruit agroforestry-based case study is presented along with an array of technical interventions, having a special focus on bioenergy and biochar, potentially leading to “negative emissions at negative cost.” The strategies for integrating food production with soil and water management, fuel production, adoption of renewable energy systems and timber management are outlined. The emphasis is on combining biological and engineering sciences to devise a practically viable niche that is easy to adopt, adapt and scale up for the communities and regions to achieve net negative emissions. The concerns expressed in the recent literature on the implementation of emission reduction and negative emission technologies are briefly presented. The novel opportunities to alleviate these concerns arising from our proposed interventions are then pointed out. Our analysis indicates that 1 ha coffee jackfruit-based agroforestry can additionally sequester around 10 tonnes of CO2-eq and lead to an income enhancement of up to 3,000–4,000 Euros in comparison to unshaded coffee. Finally, the global outlook for an easily adoptable nature-based approach is presented, suggesting an opportunity to implement revenue-generating negative emission technologies on a gigatonne scale. We anticipate that our approach presented in the paper results in increased attention to the development of practically viable science and technology-based interventions in order to support the speeding up of climate change mitigation efforts.

Abstract Erosion of landscapes underlaid by permafrost can transform sediment and nutrient fluxes, surface and subsurface hydrology, soil properties, and rates of permafrost thaw, thus changing ecosystems and carbon emissions in high latitude regions with potential implications for global climate. However, future rates of erosion and sediment transport are difficult to predict as they depend on complex interactions between climatic and environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, permafrost, vegetation, wildfires, and hydrology. Thus, despite the potential influence of erosion on the future of the Arctic and global systems, the relations between erosion‐rate and these parameters, as well as their relative importance, remain largely unquantified. Here we quantify these relations based on a sedimentary record from Burial Lake, Alaska, one of the richest datasets of Arctic lake deposits. We apply a set of bi‐ and multi‐variate techniques to explore the association between the flux of terrigenous sediments into the lake (a proxy for erosion‐rate) and a variety of biogeochemical sedimentary proxies for paleoclimatic and environmental conditions over the past 25 cal ka BP. Our results show that erosion‐rate is most strongly associated with temperature and vegetation proxies, and that erosion‐rate decreases with increased temperature, pollen‐counts, and abundance of pollen from shrubs and trees. Other proxies, such as those associated with fire frequency, aeolian dust supply, mass wasting and hydrologic conditions, play a secondary role. The marginal effects of the sedimentary‐proxies on erosion‐rate are often threshold dependent, highlighting the potential for strong non‐linear changes in erosion in response to future changes in Arctic conditions.

Human-induced changes in climatic behavior and variations in future river flows has been at the fore-front of recent academic and political discourse. Future climate projections are a vital tool in tackling climate change and supporting future adaptation, however until recently models have been viewed individually with a lack of uncertainty quantification. A multi-model ensemble (MME) with a wide range of general circulation models, regional climate models and emissions scenarios, EURO-CORDEX provides climate projections as well as flow series projections across the European domain from 1950 to 2100. This paper explores the validity of the 68 chain MME flow projections by investigating its ability to match observed flow records in the UK over the period 1975–2004. The work explores magnitude through quantile matching and seasonality matching by time-series decomposition of trends. Two statistical tests [Mann-Whitney, and Mean Average Arctangent Percentage Error (MAAPE)] were used to compare EURO-CORDEX flow projections to observed river flows recorded by the National River Flow Archive (NRFA) across 1,436 UK river catchments. Results indicate a high degree of similarity justifying the application of this dataset for assessing future hydrological changes across a regional scale. Discretizing the flow projections into regional and hydrometric areas highlights the variability in performance between neighboring domains and the strong influence local features may have on climate model performance. The validation of EURO-CORDEX flow projection data regionally enables a wide range of applications including the exploration of future changes in local and national river flows.

In addition to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, actively removing CO2 from the atmosphere is widely considered necessary to keep global warming well below 2°C. Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) describes a suite of such CO2 removal processes that all involve enhancing the buffering capacity of seawater. In theory, OAE both stores carbon and offsets ocean acidification. In practice, the response of the marine biogeochemical system to OAE must be demonstrably negligible, or at least manageable, before it can be deployed at scale. We tested the OAE response of two natural seawater mixed layer microbial communities in the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre, one at the Western gyre boundary, and one in the middle of the gyre. We conducted 4-day microcosm incubation experiments at sea, spiked with three increasing amounts of alkaline sodium salts and a 13C-bicarbonate tracer at constant pCO2. We then measured a suite of dissolved and particulate parameters to constrain the chemical and biological response to these additions. Microbial communities demonstrated occasionally measurable, but mostly negligible, responses to alkalinity enhancement. Neither site showed a significant increase in biologically produced CaCO3, even at extreme alkalinity loadings of +2,000 μmol kg−1. At the gyre boundary, alkalinity enhancement did not significantly impact net primary production rates. In contrast, net primary production in the central gyre decreased by ~30% in response to alkalinity enhancement. The central gyre incubations demonstrated a shift toward smaller particle size classes, suggesting that OAE may impact community composition and/or aggregation/disaggregation processes. In terms of chemical effects, we identify equilibration of seawater pCO2, inorganic CaCO3 precipitation, and immediate effects during mixing of alkaline solutions with seawater, as important considerations for developing experimental OAE methodologies, and for practical OAE deployment. These initial results underscore the importance of performing more studies of OAE in diverse marine environments, and the need to investigate the coupling between OAE, inorganic processes, and microbial community composition.

The Himalaya plays a vital role in regulating the freshwater availability for nearly a billion people living in the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra River basins. Due to climate change and constantly evolving human-hydrosphere interactions, including land use/cover changes, groundwater extraction, reservoir or dam construction, water availability has undergone significant change, and is expected to change further in the future. Therefore, understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of the hydrological cycle over the Himalaya and its river basins has been one of the most critical exercises toward ensuring regional water security. However, due to the lack of extensive in-situ measurements, complex hydro-climatic environment, and limited collaborative efforts, large gaps in our understanding exist. Moreover, there are several significant issues with available studies, such as lack of consistent hydro-meteorological datasets, very few attempts at integrating different data types, limited spatiotemporal sampling of hydro-meteorological measurements, lack of open access to in-situ datasets, poorly accounted anthropogenic climate feedbacks, and limited understanding of the hydro-meteorological drivers over the region. These factors result in large uncertainties in our estimates of current and future water availability over the Himalaya, which constraints the development of sustainable water management strategies for its river catchments hampering our preparedness for the current and future changes in hydro-climate. To address these issues, a partnership development workshop entitled “Water sEcurity assessment in rIvers oriGinating from Himalaya (WEIGH),” was conducted between the 07th and 11th September 2020. Based on the intense discussions and deliberations among the participants, the most important and urgent research questions were identified. This white paper synthesizes the current understanding, highlights, and the most significant research gaps and research priorities for studying water availability in the Himalaya.

Southern Africa has been identified as one of the hotspot areas of climate extremes increasing, at the same time many communities in the region are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is vulnerable to these rainfall and temperature extremes. The aim of this study is to understand changes in extreme indices during the agricultural season under climate change and how that affect the modeling of maize suitability in Southern Africa. We analyze the changes in rainfall and its extreme indices (consecutive dry days, heavy rain events and prolonged rainfall events), and temperature and its extreme indices (hot night temperatures, hot day temperatures and frequency of very hot days) from the past (1986–2014) to the future (2036–2064) and integrate these into a maize suitability model. Temperature extremes are projected to increase in both duration and intensity, particularly in the eastern parts of the region. Also, consecutive dry days are projected to increase over larger areas during the agricultural season, while rainfall will be less in sums, heavier in intensity and less prolonged in duration. Including extreme climate indices in maize suitability modeling improves the efficiency of the maize suitability model and shows more severe changes in maize suitability over Southern Africa than using season-long climatic variables. We conclude that changes in climate extremes will increase and complicate the livelihood-climate nexus in Southern Africa in the future, and therefore, a set of comprehensive adaptation options for the agricultural sector are needed. These include the use of heat, drought and high-intensity rainfall tolerant maize varieties, irrigation and/or soil water conservation techniques, and in some cases switching from maize to other crops.

Food production for human consumption is a leading cause of environmental damage in the world and yet over two billion people suffer from malnutrition. Several studies have presented evidence that changes in dietary patterns across the world can lead to win-win outcomes for environmental and social sustainability and can complement ongoing technological and policy efforts to improve the efficiency of agricultural production. However, the existing evidence have been compiled in “silos” by a large range of researchers across several disciplines using different indicators. The aim of this quantitative review is to bring together the existing knowledge on heterogeneity of current dietary patterns across the world and how a transition toward healthy diets in different countries can aid in progress toward multiple global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We first summarize the nutritional quality, economic cost, and environmental footprint of current diets of over 150 countries using multiple indicators. Next, we review which shifts in dietary patterns across different world regions can help toward achievement of SDG2 (Zero hunger), SDG3 (Good health and wellbeing), SDG 6 (Clean water and sanitation), SDG13 (Climate action), SDG14 (Life below water), and SDG15 (Life on land). Finally, we briefly discuss how to enable the shift toward sustainable dietary patterns and identify the research and data gaps that need to be filled through future efforts. Our analysis reveals that dietary change is necessary in all countries as each one has unique priorities and action items. For regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, increased intake of nutrient dense foods is needed to address deficiency of essential nutrients like folate, potassium, and vitamin A. For North America and Europe, shifting toward more plant-based diets would be healthier and simultaneously reduce the per capita environmental footprints. The results can be useful for policymakers in designing country-specific strategies for adoption of sustainable dietary behaviors and for food industry to ensure the supply of sustainable food items customized with regions' need.

Assessing biodiversity loss and species extinction is necessary to warn society and raise awareness of the impacts of ongoing climate change. Prioritizing protected areas is the pragmatic and applicable management measure under the pressure of ongoing climate change and limited resources to conserve species at risk of extinction. We developed a novel conservation index (CI) to prioritize areas and populations of an endangered mountain tree species that need protection in the face of ongoing climate change, as conservation of all populations may not be realistic. This CI integrates (1) mountain topography to identify potential refugial areas with suitable microclimates, (2) genetic diversity to assess the adaptive capacity of local populations, and (3) hypothetical climate change in the species' range. We applied this CI to Atlas cedar, an endemic and threatened species whose populations are scattered throughout the Moroccan mountains. This index provided a scale for 33 populations studied and suggests that genetically diverse populations located in rugged areas where future local climate may overlap with their current climatic niche should receive a higher conservation priority. This index may also be applicable to other mountain species with scattered populations and is likely to be more accurate if more precise climate data are used at the microrefugia scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological invasions are considered among the largest threats to native biodiversity. The Mediterranean Sea, connecting the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic oceans, is characterized as a global marine invasion hotspot, due to a multitude of human pathways and vectors such as shipping, aquaculture, tourism, and the opening of the Suez Canal, which have led to the introduction of nearly 700 alien species into the Mediterranean Sea. Among the species introduced, the lionfish Pterois miles could be considered the fastest spreading invasive fish species of the last decade (2012–2022) and has been recorded in all countries of the eastern Mediterranean Sea, reaching as far north as Croatia. Here, we present a Bayesian additive regression tree modelling framework for an updated species distribution modelling invasion map under current and future climate conditions. All climate uncertainty sources have been used, as these are available from the Bio-Oracle, the unique marine predictors database. Important outputs of the current approach are the model's inadequacy to accurately predict the most recent expansion of species in the Adriatic Sea, and the uncertainty estimation, that are high in areas with confirmed occurrence of individuals, in simulations that can help the decision makers and policy officers understand model limitations and take more informed actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Assessing biodiversity loss and species extinction is necessary to warn society and raise awareness of the impacts of ongoing climate change. Prioritizing protected areas is the pragmatic and applicable management measure under the pressure of ongoing climate change and limited resources to conserve species at risk of extinction. We developed a novel conservation index (CI) to prioritize areas and populations of an endangered mountain tree species that need protection in the face of ongoing climate change, as conservation of all populations may not be realistic. This CI integrates (1) mountain topography to identify potential refugial areas with suitable microclimates, (2) genetic diversity to assess the adaptive capacity of local populations, and (3) hypothetical climate change in the species' range. We applied this CI to Atlas cedar, an endemic and threatened species whose populations are scattered throughout the Moroccan mountains. This index provided a scale for 33 populations studied and suggests that genetically diverse populations located in rugged areas where future local climate may overlap with their current climatic niche should receive a higher conservation priority. This index may also be applicable to other mountain species with scattered populations and is likely to be more accurate if more precise climate data are used at the microrefugia scale.

Aquaculture industry represents a continuously growing sector playing a fundamental role in pursuing United Nation's goals. Increasing sea-surface temperatures, the growth of encrusting species and current cage cleaning practices proved to affect the productivity of commercial species. Here, through a Dynamic Energy Budget application under two different IPCC scenarios, we investigate the long-term effects of Pennaria disticha fragments' on Mytilus galloprovincialis ' functional traits as a result of cage cleaning practices. While Climate-Change did not exert a marked effect on mussels' Life-History traits, the simulated effect of cage cleanings highlighted a positive effect on total weight, fecundity and time to commercial size. West-Mediterranean emerged as the most affected sector, with Malta, Montenegro, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey between the top-affected countries. These outcomes confirm the reliability of a DEB-approach in projecting at different spatial and temporal scale eco-physiological results, avoiding the limitation of short-term studies and the difficulties of long-term ones. [Display omitted] • Our approach predicts long-term effects overcoming short-term study limitations. • The FT-DEB model projects at wider spatial/temporal scales eco-physiological results. • Our model identifies positive patterns under considered climate change scenarios. • Regional trends highlight Lebanon, Malta and Montenegro as the most influenced. • Informative predictions can guide aquaculture, aiding species and site planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying rates of climate change in mountain regions is of considerable interest, not least because mountains are viewed as climate “hotspots” where change can anticipate or amplify what is occurring elsewhere. Accelerating mountain climate change has extensive environmental impacts, including depletion of snow/ice reserves, critical for the world's water supply. Whilst the concept of elevation‐dependent warming (EDW), whereby warming rates are stratified by elevation, is widely accepted, no consistent EDW profile at the global scale has been identified. Past assessments have also neglected elevation‐dependent changes in precipitation. In this comprehensive analysis, both in situ station temperature and precipitation data from mountain regions, and global gridded data sets (observations, reanalyses, and model hindcasts) are employed to examine the elevation dependency of temperature and precipitation changes since 1900. In situ observations in paired studies (using adjacent stations) show a tendency toward enhanced warming at higher elevations. However, when all mountain/lowland studies are pooled into two groups, no systematic difference in high versus low elevation group warming rates is found. Precipitation changes based on station data are inconsistent with no systematic contrast between mountain and lowland precipitation trends. Gridded data sets (CRU, GISTEMP, GPCC, ERA5, and CMIP5) show increased warming rates at higher elevations in some regions, but on a global scale there is no universal amplification of warming in mountains. Increases in mountain precipitation are weaker than for low elevations worldwide, meaning reduced elevation‐dependency of precipitation, especially in midlatitudes. Agreement on elevation‐dependent changes between gridded data sets is weak for temperature but stronger for precipitation.Plain Language Summary: Mountains cover a large part of the Earth's surface and harbor distinct ecosystems, hold most of snow and ice outside the polar regions, and provide water for billions of people. This research looks at recent climate changes in mountains and compares them with simultaneous changes in lowland regions using weather station data, large global data sets, and climate models. We examine changes since 1900, but also concentrate on the last 40 years since this is when many changes have started to accelerate. Nearly all regions of the globe are getting warmer. When we make local comparisons, mountain sites are usually warming faster than lower areas nearby. However, when we average data from all global mountains and compare them with those from all lowland areas, there is no significant difference. Rainfall/snowfall on the other hand is decreasing in some areas, and increasing in others. In nearly all cases the strongest increase is occurring in the lowland areas, with increases in the mountains being more subdued (if at all). One consequence of our findings is that stores of mountain snow and ice may decline even faster than previously assumed due to the combination of enhanced mountain warming and reduced elevation dependency of rainfall/snowfall.Key Points: Using station and gridded data sets, we compare global precipitation and temperature trends by elevationLocal comparisons of paired stations and regional comparisons using gridded data often show faster mountain than lowland warmingPrecipitation differences between mountains and adjacent lowlands are reducing, often driven by stronger precipitation increase in lowlands [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the maximum capability to reduce CO 2 by substituting private car travel for e-bike. We use spatial microsimulation (population-synthesis) to simulate the adult population within every small area in England, taking account of area type and geodemographic circumstances of the population. By estimating for individuals the distance they are capable of travelling by e-bike and the extent to which they are capable of replacing private car travel, we find the upper limit on the capability to reduce CO 2 by substituting car travel for e-bike use is 24.4 MTCO 2 p.a. (per annum) in England. CO 2 saving capability per person and per small area are highest (over 750 kg CO 2 per person p.a.) for residents of rural areas and the rural urban fringe. e-bikes offer major conurbations more modest CO 2 saving capability per person. We identify areas which are vulnerable to car related economic stress and also have high capability to replace car km with e-bikes, which if supported appropriately could contribute to equitable carbon reduction. Though capable of a very significant contribution to transport carbon reduction, other changes in technology and reduction in demand would also be necessary to reach zero emissions. Our results are directly relevant to policy actors internationally who require evidence on place-based decarbonisation capability, particularly where car dependence is high. The results highlight how context is important in any attempt to design policy for equitable carbon reduction both to influence discussion on what is possible, as well as practical identification of areas for targeted intervention. Digital indicators covering all zones in a country's geography such as this are also useful because of the rapid digitalisation of policy making. We provide code so that others can produce similar analyses in other countries (https://github.com/DrIanPhilips/e-bikeCarbonReductionCapability). • e-bikes have the capability to reduce car CO 2 emissions by 24.4 million tonnes p.a. in England). • e-bike carbon reduction capability is greatest in rural areas. • 3400 census zones have high capability to replace car travel with e-bikes and economic vulnerability to car dependence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the interacting role of climate and habitat in shaping wildlife population dynamics can help to reveal synergistic pathways that drive population resilience or decline across variable and changing environments. Moose (Alces alces) is a pan-boreal herbivore experiencing population declines across large portions of North America; however, the species has shown variable response to climate across its distribution. We investigated moose demographic response to climate and evaluated the interacting role of habitat across 36 years and along a biogeographic gradient in Ontario, Canada that has experienced decadal changes to climate and habitat quality. Moose density exhibited a nonlinear trend that initially increased and then decreased over the study timeframe and was negatively affected by regional and local patterns of winter severity and later frost onset. Recruitment exhibited a monotonic decline and was positively affected by spring heat and deciduous forest cover, while also exhibiting density-dependent effects. The negative response of moose density to winter severity was reduced in Wildlife Management Units (WMUs) with higher proportions of dense canopy cover, supporting expectations that this habitat type improves moose winter mobility and predator avoidance. The negative effect of later frost onset was greater in WMUs with more regenerating forest, and both variables are associated with higher exposure to parasites and predators. Further, density-dependent effects on recruitment were suppressed by warmer springs that support vegetation productivity and in WMUs with higher proportions of dense canopy cover that can provide concealment from predators. Our study illustrates the important role habitat conditions can have to mitigate, or exacerbate, climate-change effects for a wide-spread herbivore occupying variable environments by potentially altering pathways relevant to energetic balance, predation, and parasite transmission. In this system, moose occupying sparse or regenerating forests are more susceptible to adverse climatic effects and should be managed accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]