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The authors emphasize the need to take into account the uncertainty, contingency and chances objectively inherent in the oil and gas industry when estimating oil and gas reserves and resources. It is noted that the current system in Russia for calculating and state accounting for reserves at least does not fully take them into account, nor does it meet the needs of business and financial structures, since the principles laid down in it do not correspond to generally accepted international standards.The authors come to the conclusion that the only reasonable choice for the institution of independent estimation (audit) of hydrocarbon reserves, which is beginning to form in Russia, is the use of the SPE-PRMS classification widely used in the world.

According to libertarianism about free will, at least some of the choices we make are free and undetermined. Many libertarians also accept the thesis that, before we make an undetermined choice, there is a nontrivial objective probability that we will make that choice. In the literature on free will, the ascription of objective probabilities is sometimes justified via an "Argument from Motivation," which adverts to the fact that typically, in situations of choice, we are more motivated to choose some options over others. In this paper, I will examine this argument and I will argue that it is unsound, as one of its premises is at odds with a widely accepted principle governing the evolution of objective probabilities over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

POLLS CAN PROVIDE AN ANTICIPATION OF ELECTION RESULTS, PROVIDING POLITICAL PARTIES AND CANDIDATES USEFUL INFORMATION FOR THEIR CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES. THESE RESULTS MAY INFLUENCE DECISIONS REGARDING THE ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES AND THE FOCUS ON CERTAIN ASPECTS OF THE POLICY PLATFORM. SURVEY RESULTS CAN INFLUENCE PUBLIC OPINION BY CREATING OR REINFORCING PERCEPTIONS OF WINNERS OR LOSERS. THEY CAN AFFECT THE DECISION OF VOTERS, CAUSING THEM TO CHANGE OR CONSOLIDATE THEIR CHOICES DEPENDING ON THE RESULTS PRESENTED. THE SURVEY PRESENTED IN THIS ARTICLE PROVIDES INFORMATION ON THE POPULARITY OF THE CANDIDATES, THE PREFERENCES OF THE ELECTORATE, AND CHANGES IN OPINION THROUGHOUT THE CAMPAIGN. THIS DESCRIBED SURVEY IS MAINLY INTENDED TO ESTIMATE WHAT THE POPULATION'S PREFERENCES ARE REGARDING THE PROFILE OF THE FUTURE PRESIDENT, WHAT ARE THE QUALITIES NECESSARY FOR THIS AND WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS REGARDING THE TYPE OF PRESIDENT (INDEPENDENT OR REPRESENTATIVE OF A PARTY OR PARTY GROUPS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to find the factors responsible for winning in the men’s and women’s beach volleyball championship. Materials and methods. The study sample consisted of a total of 212 matches for men and 214 matches for women of the 2017 & 2019 FIVB Men and Women Beach Volleyball World Championships held at Vienna & Hamburg from 28 July to 6 Aug 2017 and 28 June to 7 July 2019. The matches were played by 192 teams (both men and women combined) consisting of 384 numbers (both men and women combined) of players from different nations. The data were analyzed using Binary Logistic Regression (Forward: LR Method) with the result of the game as the dependent variable and predictor variables as covariates. β, standard error β, Wald’s χ2, odds ratio with 95% confidence interval were calculated. Model evaluation was conducted using the likelihood ratio test, Cox & Snell (R2), and Nagelkerke (R2) tests. The goodness of fit test for the models was conducted using the Hosmer & Lemeshow test. Results. The analysis revealed seven factors related to winning in men’s and women’s competition. While in league rounds, six factors in men’s and seven factors in women’s competition were related to winning. Besides, in knockout rounds, four factors in men’s and six factors in women’s competition were related to winning. Conclusion. The study shows that there is a significant association of important factors with respect to winning a match in an elite beach volleyball championship. The coaches and players can take note of the important factors responsible for winning in the elite beach volleyball championship, with different factors playing an important role in men’s and women’s competition during league and knockout rounds as well.

The first recorded COVID-19 case emerged in China and, within a few months, it has spread to 210 countries globally, thrusting people into danger, uncertainty, fear, and of course physical and social isolation. The impacts of this pandemic are significant for every aspect of our lives. Crises include risk and chances at the same time. As Shakespeare said, “There is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so“. This paper focuses on threats and opportunities of the pandemic crisis for humans and planet Earth. Crisis is defined as an unplanned and unwanted process of limited duration and impact, which endangers primary goals, and produces ambivalent outcome. Crisis management encompasses three phases: avoiding the crisis, identifying its symptoms when they occur and finding ways out of the crisis. There are several research questions related to that. First, could the COVID-19 crisis be avoided? Or at least could its onset be recognized early? Second, how can the pandemic crisis be measured in terms of its intensity and depth? Third, which ways lead us out of the crisis? And fourth, which lessons have to be learned? Exploring the novel literature and research findings provides new insights into the pandemic crisis and the crisis management process, which is the aim of the paper. With its results and major conclusions this paper provides a holistic perspective to the pandemic crisis and crisis management.

Celem artykułu jest analiza treści i metod akademickiego kursu przygotowanego dla studentów kierunków katechetycznych, zatytułowanego „Teologia stworzenia i etyka ekologiczna”. Teoretyczną inspiracją kursu jest przede wszystkim encyklika Laudato si’ Papieża Franciszka, która daje głębszą podstawę dla etyki ekologicznej niż etyka świecka, również pokrótce przypomniana w artykule. Wywód prowadzi do wniosku, że nowe inicjatywy katechezy ekologicznej są potrzebne dla kształtowania chrześcijańskiego, a zarazem zgodnego ze stanem współczesnej wiedzy naukowej, stosunku do środowiska naturalnego, zaś przedstawiony kurs może pomóc w przygotowaniu przyszłych katechetów do realizacji tego zadania.

We study the representation of attitudes to risk in Jeffrey's (The logic of decision, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1965) decision-theoretic framework suggested by Stefánsson and Bradley (Philos Sci 82(4):602–625, 2015; Br J Philos Sci 70(1):77–102, 2017) and Bradley (Econ Philos 32(2):231–248, 2016; Decisions theory with a human face, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2017). We show that on this representation, the value of any prospect may be expressed as a sum of two components, the prospect's instrumental value (the value the prospect has only in virtue of the outcomes it might lead to) and the prospect's intrinsic value (the value the prospect has only in virtue of the way it assigns different probabilities to the different outcomes). Both components have an expectational form. We also make a distinction between a prospect's overall intrinsic value and a prospect's conditional intrinsic value given each one of its possible outcomes and argue that this distinction has great explanatory power. We explore the relation between these two types of intrinsic values and show that they are determined at the level of preferences. Finally, we explore the relation between the intrinsic values of different prospects and point to a strong restriction on this relation that is implicit in Jeffrey's axioms. We suggest a natural interpretation to this restriction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Corona virus (COVID-19) crisis forced many countries to follow strict protocols ordering schools to close. With schools under lockdown, homeschooling has become the only form of schooling available. Reports have indicated that parents and students have struggled with the challenges of homeschooling. Against this background, this study explored primary school students and parents' educational chances and challenges during homeschooling in two countries: Mexico and Germany. Comparing these two countries can shed light into potential differences of how inclusive approaches have been incorporated in homeschooling. Following a qualitative approach, thirteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with parents and school students. Results from a qualitative content analysis revealed that parents across both countries face challenges to organise homeschooling and motivate their children. However, they spent more time with their children. Primary school students in Germany and Mexico are challenged considerably by the loss of social contact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lewis's Principal Principle is widely recognized as a rationality constraint that our credences should satisfy throughout our epistemic life. In practice, however, our credences often fail to satisfy this principle because of our various epistemic limitations. Facing such violations, we should correct our credences in accordance with this principle. In this paper, I will formulate a way of correcting our credences, which will be called the Adams Correcting Rules and then show that such a rule yields non-commutativity between conditionalizing and correcting. With the help of the notion of 'accuracy', then, I attempt to provide a vindication of the Adams Correcting Rule and show how we can respond to the non-commutativity in question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Polish Journal of Management Studies is the property of Czestochowa University of Technology, Faculty of Management and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Scientific Papers of Silesian University of Technology. Organization & Management / Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Slaskiej. Seria Organizacji i Zarzadzanie is the property of Silesian Technical University, Organisation & Management Faculty and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Summary: The association between adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) and hip fracture incidence is not yet established. In a diverse population of elderly, increased adherence to MD was associated with lower hip fracture incidence. Except preventing major chronic diseases, adhering to MD might have additional benefits in lowering hip fracture risk.Introduction: Hip fractures constitute a major public health problem among older adults. Latest evidence links adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) with reduced hip fracture risk, but still more research is needed to elucidate this relationship. The potential association of adherence to MD with hip fracture incidence was explored among older adults.Methods: A total of 140,775 adults (116,176 women, 24,599 men) 60 years and older, from five cohorts from Europe and the USA, were followed-up for 1,896,219 person-years experiencing 5454 hip fractures. Diet was assessed at baseline by validated, cohort-specific, food-frequency questionnaires, and hip fractures were ascertained through patient registers or telephone interviews/questionnaires. Adherence to MD was evaluated by a scoring system on a 10-point scale modified to be applied also to non-Mediterranean populations. In order to evaluate the association between MD and hip fracture incidence, cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR), adjusted for potential confounders, were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression and pooled estimates were subsequently derived implementing random-effects meta-analysis.Results: A two-point increase in the score was associated with a significant 4% decrease in hip fracture risk (pooled adjusted HR 0.96; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.92-0.99, pheterogeneity = 0.446). In categorical analyses, hip fracture risk was lower among men and women with moderate (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87-0.99) and high (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.87-1.01) adherence to the score compared with those with low adherence.Conclusions: In this large sample of older adults from Europe and the USA, increased adherence to MD was associated with lower hip fracture incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disagreement on the 'probability status' of chances casts doubt on Girotto and Gonzalez's (2001) conclusion that the human mind can make sound Bayesian inferences involving single-event probabilities. The main objection raised has been that chances are de facto natural frequencies disguised as probabilities. In the present study, we empirically demonstrated that numbers of chances are perceived as being distinct from natural frequencies and that they have a facilitatory effect on Bayesian inference tasks that is completely independent from their (minor) frequentist readings. Overall, therefore, our results strongly disconfirm the hypothesis that natural frequencies are a privileged cognitive representational format for Bayesian inferences and suggest that a significant portion of laypeople adequately handle genuine single-event probability problems once these are rendered computationally more accessible by using numbers of chances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Zhu and Gigerenzer (2006) showed that an appreciable number of Chinese children aged between 9 and 12years old made correct quantitative Bayesian inferences requiring the integration of priors and likelihoods as long as they were presented with numerical information phrased in terms of natural frequencies. In this study, we sought to replicate this finding and extend the investigation of children's Bayesian reasoning to a different numerical format (chances) and other probability questions (distributive and relative). In Experiment 1, a sample of Italian children was presented with the natural frequency version of five Bayesian inference problems employed by Zhu and Gigerenzer (2006), but only a tiny minority of them were able to produce correct responses. In Experiment 2, we found that the children's accuracy, as well as the coherence between their probability judgments, depended on the type of question but not on the format (natural frequency vs. chance) in which information was presented. We conclude that children's competence in drawing quantitative Bayesian inferences is lower than suggested by Zhu and Gigerenzer (2006) and, similarly to what happens with adults, it relies more on a problem representation that fosters an extensional evaluation of possibilities than on a specific numerical format. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To evaluate, among the elderly, the association of self-rated health (SRH) with mortality, and to identify determinants of self-rating health as "at-least-good".Study Design: Individual data on SRH and important covariates were obtained for 424,791 European and United States residents, ≥60 years at recruitment (1982-2008), in eight prospective studies in the Consortium on Health and Ageing: Network of Cohorts in Europe and the United States (CHANCES). In each study, adjusted mortality ratios (hazard ratios, HRs) in relation to SRH were calculated and subsequently combined with random-effect meta-analyses.Main Outcome Measures: All-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality.Results: Within the median 12.5 years of follow-up, 93,014 (22%) deaths occurred. SRH "fair" or "poor" vs. "at-least-good" was associated with increased mortality: HRs 1.46 (95% CI 1·23-1.74) and 2.31 (1.79-2.99), respectively. These associations were evident: for cardiovascular and, to a lesser extent, cancer mortality, and within-study, within-subgroup analyses. Accounting for lifestyle, sociodemographic, somatometric factors and, subsequently, for medical history explained only a modest amount of the unadjusted associations. Factors favourably associated with SRH were: sex (males), age (younger-old), education (high), marital status (married/cohabiting), physical activity (active), body mass index (non-obese), alcohol consumption (low to moderate) and previous morbidity (absence).Conclusion: SRH provides a quick and simple tool for assessing health and identifying groups of elders at risk of early mortality that may be useful also in clinical settings. Modifying determinants of favourably rating health, e.g. by increasing physical activity and/or by eliminating obesity, may be important for older adults to "feel healthy" and "be healthy". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ergotherapie & Rehabilitation is the property of Schulz-Kirchner Verlag Gmbh and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Aim: To examine the association between a healthy diet, assessed by the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI), and cognitive decline in older adults. Methods: Data from 21,837 participants aged ≥ 55 years from 3 cohorts (Survey in Europe on Nutrition and the Elderly, a Concerted Action [SENECA], Rotterdam Study [RS], Nurses' Health Study [NHS]) were analyzed. HDI scores were based on intakes of saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, mono- and disaccharides, protein, cholesterol, fruits and vegetables, and fiber. The Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status in NHS and Mini-Mental State Examination in RS and SENECA were used to assess cognitive function from multiple repeated measures. Using multivariable-adjusted, mixed linear regression, mean differences in annual rates of cognitive decline by HDI quintiles were estimated. Results: Multivariable-adjusted differences in rates in the highest versus the lowest HDI quintile were 0.01 (95% CI -0.01, 0.02) in NHS, 0.00 (95% CI -0.02, 0.01) in RS, and 0.00 (95% CI -0.05, 0.05) in SENECA with a pooled estimate of 0.00 (95% CI -0.01, 0.01), I² = 0%. Conclusions: A higher HDI score was not related to reduced rates of cognitive decline in European and American older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hip fractures are associated with diminished quality of life and survival especially amongst the elderly.Objective: All-cause mortality after hip fracture was investigated to assess its magnitude.Methods: A total of 122 808 participants from eight cohorts in Europe and the USA were followed up for a mean of 12.6 years, accumulating 4273 incident hip fractures and 27 999 deaths. Incident hip fractures were assessed through telephone interviews/questionnaires or national inpatient/fracture registries, and causes of death were verified with death certificates. Cox proportional hazards models and the time-dependent variable methodology were used to assess the association between hip fracture and mortality and its magnitude at different time intervals after the injury in each cohort. We obtained the effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis.Results: Hip fracture was positively associated with increased all-cause mortality; the hazard ratio (HR) in the fully adjusted model was 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.76-2.57, after adjusting for potential confounders. This association was stronger amongst men [HR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.72-3.31] than amongst women [HR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.54-2.39], although this difference was not significant. Mortality was higher during the first year after the hip fracture [HR: 2.78, 95% CI: 2.12-3.64], but it remained elevated without major fluctuations after longer time since hip fracture [HR (95% CI): 1.89 (1.50-2.37) after 1-4 years; 2.15 (1.81-2.55) after 4-8 years; 1.79 (1.57-2.05) after 8 or more years].Conclusion: In this large population-based sample of older persons across eight cohorts, hip fracture was associated with excess short- and long-term all-cause mortality in both sexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have shown that cancer risk related to overweight and obesity is mediated by time and might be better approximated by using life years lived with excess weight. In this study we aimed to assess the impact of overweight duration and intensity in older adults on the risk of developing different forms of cancer. Study participants from seven European and one US cohort study with two or more weight assessments during follow-up were included (n = 329,576). Trajectories of body mass index (BMI) across ages were estimated using a quadratic growth model; overweight duration (BMI ≥ 25) and cumulative weighted overweight years were calculated. In multivariate Cox models and random effects analyses, a longer duration of overweight was significantly associated with the incidence of obesity-related cancer [overall hazard ratio (HR) per 10-year increment: 1.36; 95 % CI 1.12-1.60], but also increased the risk of postmenopausal breast and colorectal cancer. Additionally accounting for the degree of overweight further increased the risk of obesity-related cancer. Risks associated with a longer overweight duration were higher in men than in women and were attenuated by smoking. For postmenopausal breast cancer, increased risks were confined to women who never used hormone therapy. Overall, 8.4 % of all obesity-related cancers could be attributed to overweight at any age. These findings provide further insights into the role of overweight duration in the etiology of cancer and indicate that weight control is relevant at all ages. This knowledge is vital for the development of effective and targeted cancer prevention strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Proceedings of the Faculty of Economics in East Sarajevo / Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Istočnom Sarajevu is the property of University of East Sarajevo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

What value should we put on our chances of obtaining a good? This paper argues that, contrary to the widely accepted theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern, the value of a chance of some good G may be a non-linear function of the value of G. In particular, chances may have diminishing marginal utility, a property that is termed chance uncertainty aversion. The hypothesis that agents are averse to uncertainy about chances explains a pattern of preferences often observed in the Ellsberg paradox. While these preferences have typically been taken to refute Bayesian decision theory, it is shown that chance risk aversion is perfectly compatible with it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Research Papers of the Wroclaw University of Economics / Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wroclawiu is the property of Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wroclawiu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Seldom have studies taken account of changes in lifestyle habits in the elderly, or investigated their impact on disease-free life expectancy (LE) and LE with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Using data on subjects aged 50+ years from three European cohorts (RCPH, ESTHER and Tromsø), we used multi-state Markov models to calculate the independent and joint effects of smoking, physical activity, obesity and alcohol consumption on LE with and without CVD. Men and women aged 50 years who have a favourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, non-smoker and participates in vigorous physical activity) lived between 7.4 (in Tromsø men) and 15.7 (in ESTHER women) years longer than those with an unfavourable lifestyle (overweight but not obese, light/moderate drinker, smoker and does not participate in physical activity). The greater part of the extra life years was in terms of 'disease-free' years, though a healthy lifestyle was also associated with extra years lived after a CVD event. There are sizeable benefits to LE without CVD and also for survival after CVD onset when people favour a lifestyle characterized by salutary behaviours. Remaining a non-smoker yielded the greatest extra years in overall LE, when compared to the effects of routinely taking physical activity, being overweight but not obese, and drinking in moderation. The majority of the overall LE benefit is in disease free years. Therefore, it is important for policy makers and the public to know that prevention through maintaining a favourable lifestyle is 'never too late'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most promising accounts of ontic probability include the Spielraum conception of probabilities, which can be traced back to J. von Kries and H. Poincaré, and the best system account by D. Lewis. This paper aims at comparing both accounts and at combining them to obtain the best of both worlds. The extensions of both Spielraum and best system probabilities do not coincide because the former only apply to systems with a special dynamics. Conversely, Spielraum probabilities may not be part of the best system, e.g. if a broad class of random devices is not often used. Spielraum probabilities have the potential to provide illuminating explanations of frequencies with which outcomes of trials on gambling devices arise. They ultimately fail to account for such frequencies though because they are compatible with frequencies that grossly differ from the values of the respective probabilities. I thus follow recent proposals by M. Strevens and M. Abrams and strengthen the definition of Spielraum probabilities by adding a further condition that restricts some actual frequencies. The resulting account remains limited in scope, but stands objections raised against it in the recent literature: it is neither circular nor based upon arbitrary choices of a measure or of physical variables. Nor does it lack any explanatory power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The associations of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations with total and site-specific cancer incidence have been examined in several epidemiological studies with overall inconclusive findings. Very little is known about the association of vitamin D with cancer incidence in older populations. We assessed the association of pre-diagnostic serum 25(OH)D levels with incidence of all cancers combined and incidence of lung, colorectal, breast, prostate and lymphoid malignancies among older adults. Pre-diagnostic 25(OH)D concentrations and cancer incidence were available in total for 15,486 older adults (mean age 63, range 50-84 years) participating in two cohort studies: ESTHER (Germany) and TROMSØ (Norway); and a subset of previously published nested-case control data from a another cohort study: EPIC-Elderly (Greece, Denmark, Netherlands, Spain and Sweden) from the CHANCES consortium on health and aging. Cox proportional hazards or logistic regression were used to derive multivariable adjusted hazard and odds ratios, respectively, and their 95 % confidence intervals across 25(OH)D categories. Meta-analyses with random effects models were used to pool study-specific risk estimates. Overall, lower 25(OH)D concentrations were not significantly associated with increased incidence of most of the cancers assessed. However, there was some evidence of increased breast cancer and decreased lymphoma risk with higher 25(OH)D concentrations. Our meta-analyses with individual participant data from three large European population-based cohort studies provide at best limited support for the hypothesis that vitamin D may have a major role in cancer development and prevention among European older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to historical developments, Evangelical church music in Transylvania has changed significantly in recent decades. Major events that had an impact on this development are the establishment of the communist regime in Romania and the mass exodus of German-speaking Evangelical congregation members from most Transylvanian towns and villages. This poses a challenge for the Evangelical Church, who has to conserve and maintain largely unused and empty churches, as well as their assets, such as organs, sheet music, and other musical paraphernalia. However, the changed situation also has its benefits, since it requires an opening of the small Evangelical Church toward others. Music is particularly useful medium for this opening towards the non-Evangelical world, as it is not language-bound. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

People appear to be Bayesian when statistical information is presented in terms of natural frequencies and non-Bayesian when presented in terms of single-event probabilities, unless the probabilities resemble natural frequencies, for example, as chances. The isomorphic format of chances, however, does not always facilitate performance to the extent that the format of natural frequencies does. Prior research has not addressed the underlying mechanism that accounts for this gap despite its theoretical significance. The mechanism explaining this external format gap could lie in the interpretation of the problem as a set-problem, which cues relevant problem model and arithmetic operations ( the problem interpretation hypothesis) and/or in the interpretation of the format as frequencies, which may be easier to process ( the format interpretation hypothesis). In two parallel experiments, we found support for the problem interpretation hypothesis only: set representations mediated solely the isomorphic format gap (Experiment 1: part A) and accounted for the transfer effect to natural frequencies (Experiment 1: part B); priming set representations improved performance with chances (Experiment 2). We discuss how the supported explanation corroborates the nested-sets rather than the ecological rationality account of statistical reasoning and how it helps explain individual differences in Bayesian reasoning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) represents a leading cause of mortality worldwide, especially in the elderly. Lowering the number of CVD deaths requires preventive strategies targeted on the elderly. Objective: The objective was to generate evidence on the association between WHO dietary recommendations and mortality from CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke in the elderly aged $60 y. Design: We analyzed data from 10 prospective cohort studies from Europe and the United States comprising a total sample of 281,874 men and women free from chronic diseases at baseline. Components of the Healthy Diet Indicator (HDI) included saturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, mono- and disaccharides, protein, cholesterol, dietary fiber, and fruit and vegetables. Cohort-specific HRs adjusted for sex, education, smoking, physical activity, and energy and alcohol intakes were pooled by using a random-effects model. Results: During 3,322,768 person-years of follow-up, 12,492 people died of CVD. An increase of 10 HDI points (complete adherence to an additional WHO guideline) was, on average, not associated with CVD mortality (HR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.86, 1.03), CAD mortality (HR: 0.99; 95% CI: 0.85, 1.14), or stroke mortality (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88, 1.03). However, after stratification of the data by geographic region, adherence to the HDI was associated with reduced CVD mortality in the southern European cohorts (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.96; I2 = 0%) and in the US cohort (HR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.87; I2 = not applicable). Conclusion: Overall, greater adherence to the WHO dietary guidelines was not significantly associated with CVD mortality, but the results varied across regions. Clear inverse associations were observed in elderly populations in southern Europe and the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single 'baseline' measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (≥25-<30 kg/m) or moderately obese (≥30-<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (≥18.5-<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58-0.82) and 0.78 (0.63-0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79-0.94) and 0.80 (0.72-0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76-1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62-1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Research Papers of the Wroclaw University of Economics / Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wroclawiu is the property of Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wroclawiu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper discusses the analysis approach when using event trees and fault trees in a quantitative risk assessment context. The basic question raised is when to introduce probability models and frequentist probabilities (chances) instead of using direct probability assignments for the events of the trees. We argue that such models should only be used if the key quantities of interest of the risk assessment are frequentist probabilities and when systematic information updating is important for meeting the aim of the analysis. An example of an event tree related to the analysis of an LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) plant illustrates the analysis and discussion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]