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The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an economic crisis in advanced economies greater than the 2008 economic crisis, as the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts indicate. Entrepreneurship activity is an important factor to be considered to reduce this negative. The objective of this paper is to analyze the factors that favor entrepreneurship in the COVID-19 pandemic situation and explore the relationship between entrepreneurship and sustainable development. Monetary, fiscal, competitiveness, and business expectations are factors to consider. To achieve this objective, we reviewed the specialized literature and proposed an economic model to verify the relationships between the relevant variables. The estimation of this model uses the Partial Least Squares (PLS) method. This study looks at select OECD countries where data on entrepreneurial activity are available and there are calculations by the OECD for the economic projections for 2020.

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the pandemic and then fell about half-way back to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021. Second, and in contrast, the 1-month VIX, a Twitter-based Economic Uncertainty Index, and macro forecaster disagreement all rose sharply in reaction to the pandemic but retrenched almost completely by mid-2021. Third, Categorical Policy Uncertainty Indexes highlight the changing sources of uncertainty—from healthcare and fiscal policy uncertainty in spring 2020 to elevated uncertainty around monetary policy and national security as of May 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but shifted rapidly to the upside from fall 2020 onwards. Perceived upside uncertainty remains highly elevated as of early 2022. Fifth, our survey evidence suggests that elevated uncertainty is exerting only mild restraint on capital investment plans for 2022 and 2023, perhaps because perceived risks are so skewed to the upside.

The recent shift to remote work raised the amenity value of employment. As compensation adjusts to share the amenity-value gains with employers, wage-growth pressures moderate. We find empirical support for this mechanism in the wage-setting behavior of U.S. employers, and we develop novel survey data to quantify its force. Our data imply a cumulative wage-growth moderation of 2.0 percentage points over two years. This moderation offsets more than half the real-wage catchup effect that Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near- term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains associated with the recent rise of remote work also lower labor's share of national income by 1.1 percentage points. In addition, the "unexpected compression" of wages since early 2020 (Autor and Dube, 2022) is partly explained by the same amenity-value effect, which operates differentially across the earnings distribution.

We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty in the U.S. economy. First, equity market traders and executives of nonfinancial firms share similar assessments about uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average) firm-level subjective uncertainty at one-year forecast horizons. Second, looking within the distribution of beliefs in the SBU reveals that firm-level expectations shifted towards upside risk in the latter part of 2020. In this sense, decision makers in nonfinancial businesses share some of the optimism that seems manifest in equity markets. Third, and despite the positive shift in tail risks, overall uncertainty continues to substantially dampen capital spending plans, pointing to a source of weak growth in demand and in potential gross domestic product.

Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. We compute these rates by aggregating over monthly firm-level observations that look back 12 months and ahead 12 months. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative employment growth trends in favor of industries with a high capacity of employees to work from home and against those with a low capacity.

We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms reports significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruption, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the end of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively affected by the pandemic. Second, firms (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their one-year-ahead inflation expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms' one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the dramatic decline in firms' near-term inflation expectations, their longer-run inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored.

The article was devoted to the research of possibilities to use Business Outlook Survey results, which are carried out by National Bank of Ukraine, for the short-term forecasting of economic development, in particular, the Gross Domestic Product of Ukraine. The different methods of building of the leading index of economic development, their advantages, and their restrictions are examined. The choice of the best index, which provides for the higher accuracy of forecasting the GDP, is carried out with the use of econometric models.

In this article, we analyze the effects of the introduction of the German minimum wage using difference-in-differences estimations applied to the IAB Establishment Panel. The treatment effects on the treated establishments show a slight reduction in the employers' expected development of business volume. When we analyze the effects of the minimum wage on the net sales of intermediates and wages costs, we observe a reduction, which is fully explained by the increase in wage costs induced by the minimum wage. The results do not point to effects on establishment-level productivity or capital investments. Looking at investments in human capital, we do not observe any effects on apprenticeship offers or the placement of apprentices. If anything, the results point at a slight reduction in the provision of further training.

Niedrige Erzeugerpreise für Getreide, Milch und Fleisch, zunehmende Regulierung und die anhaltend kontroverse Diskussion um die Produktionsweise der Landwirtschaft sorgten für ein unsicheres wirtschaftliches Umfeld im Jahr 2015. Die Landwirte weniger zufrieden mit der Geschäftslage und skeptisch über die weitere Geschäftsentwicklung. Auch die Investitionsbereitschaft war rückläufig. Der Fokus der Betriebsentwicklung liegt bei der Optimierung der laufenden Produktion um die Produktionskosten zu senken. Auch die Digitalisierung der Produktion weckt das Interesse der Landwirte, jedoch hat nur ein kleiner Teil ein ausgearbeitetes Konzept für die systematische Digitalisierung der Produktion., Low prices for grain, milk and meat, increasing regulations for farmers and the ongoing discussion about production systems in agriculture lead to unsecure business conditions for farmers in 2015. Farmers were less satisfied with their business situation and also less confident with the business expectations. Also the willingness to invest declined during the year 2015. Focus for farm development is optimizing production to reach lower costs of production. Also digitization is in focus of farmers, but only a minority establish a concept for data use., Jahrbuch Agrartechnik, vol. 27. 2015Jahrbuch Agrartechnik 2015, vol. 27.2015, p. 7

Der DLG TrendmonitorEurope erfasst das aktuelle Geschäftslage, die Erwartungen an die Geschäftsentwicklung der kommenden 12 Monaten sowie die Betriebsentwicklungsstrategien landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmer. Darüber hinaus stehen Präferenzen für technologische Innovationen im Fokus der Befragung. Die Investitionsdynamik blieb mit Ausnahme Frankreichs trotz des in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2014 schwieriger werdenden Marktumfeldes hoch. Das Zinsniveau stärkte die hohe Inves-titionsbereitschaft der Landwirte in Deutschland, Polen und Großbritannien. Steigende Pachten, steigende Produktionsstandards und der schwieriger werdende Zugang zu Facharbeitskräften führen zu strukturell steigenden Produktionskosten, denen die Landwirte mit der Optimierung der Produktion begegnen. Die Landwirte fokussieren mit Ihren Investitionen auf die Verbesserung der Tiergerechtheit der Haltungssysteme sowie auf die verbesserte Auswertung von Produktionsdaten und deren Nutzung in Produktionssteuerung und -planung., The DLG-TrendmonitorEurope records the actuel business climate, the expectations for business development in the upcoming 12 month and the strategies for farm development. Furthermore, the preferences for technical innovations are in the focus of the survey. In Germany, the UK and Poland the investment dynamic is still high. Interest rates for investments are still attractive and strengthen the willingness to invest. Increasing land rents and production standards rising production costs and the farmers want to optimize the production with their investments. Farmers are interested in innovations in animal husbandry to improve the keeping conditions. Farmers are also interested in innovations in data management as a key to improve production planning and to reach higher production efficiency., Jahrbuch Agrartechnik, vol. 26. 2014Jahrbuch Agrartechnik 2014, vol. 26.2014, p. 7

Con la formulación de la teoría de las expectativas racionales, el análisis de las predicciones de los agentes económicos ha cobrado un papel muy importante en el desarrollo de la mayoría de teorías económicas. En este trabajo se estiman algunos tests de ''No Causalidad'' de Granger, Sims y Toda, y de Yamamoto, para determinar si las expectativas empresariales causan la coyuntura industrial en Colombia. Para ello, se utilizan datos de encuestas de opinión procedentes de gremios privados y del DANE. Los resultados son concluyentes: las expectativas parecen incidir en el comportamiento futuro de variables como ventas, producción y empleo industrial. De manera recurrente, los resultados sugieren que, en la formación de expectativas, toman parte esas mismas variables, las expectativas anteriores y el comportamiento de la demanda, variable exógena a la empresa, medida en los niveles de pedidos y de inventarios. Since the appearance of rational expectations theory, the analysis of the predictions of economic agents has become a very important issue in recent economic theories. In this paper Granger, Sims and Toda and Yamamoto ''Non-Causality'' tests are estimated in order to determine if firm's expectations cause industrial conjuncture in Colombia. Private surveys and official data are used. Results are conclusive: expectations affect the future values of industrial variables such as production, employment and sells. Furthermore, these variables, along with past expectations and demand (measured through inventories and orders) are essential when firm expectations are created. Grâce à la théorie des anticipations rationnelles, l'analyse concernant les prévisions des agents économiques a joué un rôle très important dans le développement d'une large partie de la théorie économique. A ce sujet, cet article présente un emsemble de test de '' non causalité '' du type Granger, Sims et Toda, ainsi que celui de Yamamoto, dont l'objectif est de déterminer si les anticipations des entrepreneurs sont à l'origine de la conjoncture industrielle en Colombie. À cet effet, on utilise des données issues d'un sondage d'opinion auprès des groupes industrielles privés, ainsi que les donnés disponible dans le Département National de Statistique de Colombie (DANE). Nos résultats montrent que les anticipations ont une incidence dans le comportement futur de certaines variables telles que les ventes, la production et l'emploi industriel. Les résultats montrent également que les anticipations obéissent à ces mêmes variables, à l'état des anticipations dans la période précédente ainsi qu'au comportement de la demanda, celle-ci considérée comme une variable exogène à l'entreprise et mesurée par les différents niveaux des commandes et des stocks.

This paper develops a formal theoretical model within which it investigates mathematically the policy implications of adverse business expectations involving deficit financing. It is found that hostility towards deficit financing will always diminish the effectiveness of fiscal policy and render the ultimate impact of fiscal policy indeterminate. Potentially, a fiscal policy aimed at expansion may lead to a perverse final effect: a decline in economic activity. The model constructed allows deficit financing to influence the money supply.