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Abstract Buses are among the most accessible and frequently used means of transport. Due to its importance, road safety analysis is frequently conducted to reduce accidents. This paper studied the relationship between weather conditions and the causes of accidents to improve road safety, focusing on long-distance services between Madrid and Bilbao (Spain). We employed Latent Class Clustering (LCC) and Hierarchical Ordered Logit models to identify these factors’ relationships. Additionally, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was adopted to provide temporal insights into accident occurrences. The main results show a downward trend in accidents since 2019, with manoeuvres being the most frequent cause. LCC reveals that “manoeuvres and car invading lanes in the opposite direction” in “clear and cloudy weather” has the highest probability of occurrence (63%). The hierarchical-ordered logit model indicates that rainy weather significantly affects all accident causes. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis reveals a vertical initial decline in survival probability within the first ten days, emphasizing a high initial accident risk. The integrated approach used in this work provides a thorough understanding of accident hazards, which is its main contribution. By integrating LCC, Hierarchical Ordered Logit models and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis; we could offer a comprehensive and nuanced interpretation of the connection between weather and bus accidents. The findings highlight the need for rapid and sustained safety interventions, enhancing robustness and providing actionable insights for improving bus safety.

The renewal of the vehicle fleet with environmentally friendly buses that constitute urban public transport within an urban territory, or a proportion of the transport within the territory of cities and municipalities as part of suburban public passenger transport, can make a significant contribution to reducing greenhouse gas and environmental pollutant emissions from transport. As part of the research, we dealt with the research question as to whether the application of the Act on the Promotion of Clean Vehicles (EU (European Union) Directive 2019/1161) will significantly increase the share of environmentally friendly buses by 2032 in the Slovak Republic (SR). The paradox of the application of the new legislation in the Slovak Republic is that, in public transport, the renewal of the vehicle fleet has significantly reduced, and will further reduce, the negative impacts of vehicle operation, but nothing will change significantly in suburban bus transport while a substantial part of the lines start and end at bus stations in city centres and a number of lines are for short distances, which can be operated by electric buses. Thus, the percentage of environmentally friendly automobiles in the Slovak Republic in urban bus transport will increase significantly. In suburban bus transport, we propose to change the legislation of the Slovak Republic in order to partially start increasing the share of environmentally friendly vehicles. Another follow-up research question was whether gross domestic product (GDP) per capita influences the increased share of environmentally friendly buses in the European countries studied. Based on the correlation measure, there is a significant connection between GDP per capita and the proportion of eco-friendly buses in certain nations. In areas with higher GDP, or in more advanced regions, there is a larger percentage of environmentally sustainable buses. The largest share of environmentally friendly buses is in the Nordic countries of Europe, at 13.44%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The connectivity of the urban public transport network and the convenience of transfers between modes of transit are important factors that affect whether passengers choose public transport. Identifying the key nodes that affect network connectivity, direct access, transfers, and clarifying the main factors that restrict the network efficiency play important roles in improving the efficiency of the public transport network and establishing a "green city". On this premise, this paper constructs two single-layer networks and a composite network that can reflect the transfer relationship between 'bus–bus', 'metro–metro', and 'metro–bus' based on the method of Space-P. The composite network realizes the integration study of homogeneous and heterogeneous stops, lines, and transfer relationships in the public transport network. At the same time, five kinds of centrality indexes are applied to the transport transfer network, and the significance of these indexes in the network is explained. Through the comprehensive analysis of these five types of indexes, the key nodes affecting the network connectivity, direct access and transfer efficiency, can be identified more accurately. Taking the public transport network of Xi'an as an example, the structural characteristics of the networks, including scale-free and small-world characteristics, were empirically analyzed. The main stops that play important roles in networks were identified based on the integrated centrality, degrees, and weight degrees. The research results showed the following: (1) Xi'an's metro network, bus network, and metro–bus composite network all have scale-free and small-world characteristics. (2) The influence of the key stops of the metro network is concentrated, while the influence of the key stops of the bus network is scattered. (3) The public transport network in the first ring road area of Xi'an has the highest degree of direct access, and the core areas of the south, west, and north of Xi'an also have high direct access. However, the direct access in the area east of Xi'an is slightly lower. (4) Xi'an's bus transport network covers a large area, showing the characteristics of a dual-core "central + southern" network. (5) The metro–bus composite network demonstrates a closer connection between stops and a more balanced network. (6) Finally, the degree of direct access to stops in the bus transport network and metro transport network shows the characteristics of "the single core is dominant, and the circle diffusion weakens step by step". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Customer awareness and customer satisfaction are generally important attributes for the success and competitiveness of any business. In some sectors, they are studied very intensively; in others, they are neglected. In the field of transport services, it is important that the attitudes of customers are sufficiently monitored because public passenger transport has a lot of individual competition. Only satisfied customers can prefer public transportation over their own. In this context, this contribution analyses customer requirements and their satisfaction with bus public transport in the Slovak Republic. The opinions of customers are supplemented in this article with those of strategic managers. We ascertained customer requirements through questionnaire surveys. Using theoretical knowledge, we established hypotheses, which were subsequently verified using the selected statistical methods. Based on the findings, we proposed the concept of the target perspective of the BSC system for bus transport companies in the Slovak Republic in an effort to increase their competitiveness. Our procedure was also based on knowledge that is the output of various research studies in this area. Their results show that marketing strategies are considered the most important part of strategic management. Today, it is common in many industries that all business entities offer the same product at the same price under approximately the same technological conditions and with the assistance of equally well-equipped personnel. Therefore, a correctly set marketing strategy can also be the key to business success in transport services. The methods used in this paper were analysis, synthesis, questionnaire surveys, and the selected managerial and statistical methods. Our goal was to propose a concept of the customer perspective of the BSC system based on the analysis of customer requirements. We are convinced that the results of our survey can contribute to increasing the competitiveness of not only bus carriers in Slovakia, but also in other EU countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Community participation and the formation of social networks are crucial for a qualitative life. To this end, transportation plays an essential role. Many autistic people rely on public transportation for their mobility needs. However, research shows that it is not always easy for them to use it. The issues they face when using public bus transport have not yet been thoroughly studied. The current case study in Flanders aimed to give autistic people the opportunity to express the issues they face while using public bus transportation. A qualitative hermeneutic phenomenological study was carried out. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 17 autistic individuals. The interviews were analyzed based on the interpretative phenomenological analysis method. Three main themes emerged: creating predictability, limiting stimuli, and open and accessible communication. In addition, various coping strategies were described, such as the use of noise-canceling headphones. The results of this study may lead to a more autism-friendly public transportation environment. Transportation plays an essential role in daily life, allowing people to participate in the community and form social relationships. Many autistic people rely on public transportation to meet their mobility needs. However, research shows that it is not always easy for them to use it. The exact issues autistic individuals face when traveling with public transportation and how public transportation can be made more autism-friendly have yet to be researched. The current study allowed autistic individuals to express themselves regarding issues they face while traveling by public bus transportation, to raise awareness for making public transportation more autism-friendly. We interviewed 17 autistic individuals about their experiences riding the bus. Three main themes emerged from the results: creating predictability, limiting stimuli, and open and accessible communication. If transport companies take initiatives related to these themes, autistic people traveling by bus can have a more pleasant experience. Participants also described coping strategies for stressful or uncomfortable situations while using public bus transportation, such as using noise-cancelling headphones or digital applications for real-time route tracking, etc. These findings may lead to a more autism-friendly public transportation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic and the anti-pandemic measures taken have significantly affected the activities of the society and the associated need for mobility, as well as the transport behaviour of inhabitants. The goal of this research is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the change in the demand of residents for suburban bus transport (SBT) services in the regions of Slovakia. Due to the impact of the pandemic of COVID-19, there was a decrease in the number of passengers transported by SBT as well as a decrease in the supply of bus services offered in all the regions under study. The decrease in the number of passengers in the pandemic year was caused not only by COVID-19 and the anti-pandemic measures, but also by the reduction in the supply of SBT. The research confirmed the relation between the reduction in the offer of SBT and the decrease in passenger demand.

Customer awareness and customer satisfaction are generally important attributes for the success and competitiveness of any business. In some sectors, they are studied very intensively; in others, they are neglected. In the field of transport services, it is important that the attitudes of customers are sufficiently monitored because public passenger transport has a lot of individual competition. Only satisfied customers can prefer public transportation over their own. In this context, this contribution analyses customer requirements and their satisfaction with bus public transport in the Slovak Republic. The opinions of customers are supplemented in this article with those of strategic managers. We ascertained customer requirements through questionnaire surveys. Using theoretical knowledge, we established hypotheses, which were subsequently verified using the selected statistical methods. Based on the findings, we proposed the concept of the target perspective of the BSC system for bus transport companies in the Slovak Republic in an effort to increase their competitiveness. Our procedure was also based on knowledge that is the output of various research studies in this area. Their results show that marketing strategies are considered the most important part of strategic management. Today, it is common in many industries that all business entities offer the same product at the same price under approximately the same technological conditions and with the assistance of equally well-equipped personnel. Therefore, a correctly set marketing strategy can also be the key to business success in transport services. The methods used in this paper were analysis, synthesis, questionnaire surveys, and the selected managerial and statistical methods. Our goal was to propose a concept of the customer perspective of the BSC system based on the analysis of customer requirements. We are convinced that the results of our survey can contribute to increasing the competitiveness of not only bus carriers in Slovakia, but also in other EU countries.

The aim of this paper is to find the most important aspects of introducing zero-emission and low-carbon solutions in urban bus transport, as well as their availability. Beyond the economic aspects related to energy sources and consumption, the paper focuses on their impact on people and the environment. There is also an attempt to estimate the scale of the impact of changes in the structure of the energy sources of buses in urban transport compared with all the means of transport operating in a given area, as well as a justification for these changes. We also conducted a survey of bus passengers to check their awareness of the changes taking place and their attitude towards them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The transport sector needs to become sustainable and public transport has an important role to play. Green public procurement has proven to have great potential to influence the transition to a sustainable public transport sector. Sweden is a good example of a country that uses public procurement in the public transport sector to a large extent and has at the same time come far in the transition to renewable fuel. The aim of this study is to examine what role public transport authorities (PTAs) can have in supporting more environmentally sustainable public transport through public procurement. This was done by a content analysis regarding the expressions of environmental requirements historically, over a ten-year period, in tender documents in Sweden, followed by a workshop where the implications of the findings and future tender processes were discussed with relevant actors. The results showed that all the environmental requirements have become stricter during the studied period, but indicate a tendency for higher use of environmental requirements in tendering of larger areas as well as in tendering of public transport within cities. Specifically, for requirements for fuel, the same tenders also use specific requirements to a higher extent. However, the subsequent workshop discussions indicated that the use of specific requirements is one reason for disagreement among involved actors. Overall, this study of the Swedish public transport case showed that PTAs have a large potential to support more environmentally sustainable solutions using environmental requirements in public procurement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buses account for almost 60% of the total public transport services in Europe, and most of the vehicles are diesel fuelled. Regional transport administrators, under pressure by governments to introduce zero-emission buses, require analytical tools for identifying optimal solutions. In literature, few models combine location analysis, least cost planning, and emission assessment, taking into account multiple technologies which might achieve emission reduction goals. In this paper, an existing optimal location model for electric urban transport is adapted to match the needs of regional transport. The model, which aims to evaluate well-to-wheel carbon emissions as well as airborne emissions of NOx and PM10, is applied to a real case study of a regional bus transport service in North Eastern Italy. The optimization has identified electric buses with relatively small (60 kWh) batteries as the best compromise for reducing carbon equivalent emissions; however, under current economic conditions in Italy, the life cycle cost of such vehicles is still much higher than those of Euro VI diesel buses. In this context, our model helps in identifying ways to minimize infrastructure costs and to efficiently allocate expensive resources such as electric buses to the routes where the maximum environmental benefit can be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the distributional effects of the deregulation and privatization of essential services in Britain since the 1980s, based on a cross-sector study of water, energy and local bus transport. Our approach locates end users within the structures and processes, and prevailing narratives that underpin both production and consumption. This framework highlights the ways that the provisioning of these vital services is contested, contradictory and underpinned by power relations. We show that, at one end, investors in these sectors have made generous returns on their investments but their methods of profit maximization are often not in the public interest. Meanwhile these profits are financed by end users' payments of bills and fares. Many lower-income households face challenges in terms of affording, and even accessing, these essential services. Regulation has failed to provide adequate social protection. We argue that adverse social outcomes emerge from systemic factors embedded in these modes of provision. A narrative of politically-neutral, technocratic solutions belies the underlying contested nature of privatized monopolistic shared essential services. Moreover, a policy preoccupation with markets and competition obscures the inequality embedded in the underlying structures and processes and undermines more collective and equitable forms of provisioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to find the most important aspects of introducing zero-emission and low-carbon solutions in urban bus transport, as well as their availability. Beyond the economic aspects related to energy sources and consumption, the paper focuses on their impact on people and the environment. There is also an attempt to estimate the scale of the impact of changes in the structure of the energy sources of buses in urban transport compared with all the means of transport operating in a given area, as well as a justification for these changes. We also conducted a survey of bus passengers to check their awareness of the changes taking place and their attitude towards them.

This paper focuses on introducing new, environmentally friendly types of drivetrains in the field of bus transport. Main goal is to present approximate costs of purchase and cost of operating (especially fuels or electricity) and connected them with real emissions of carbon dioxide for each different technology of drivetrain, including Well-to-Tank and Tank-to-Wheel emissions. The authors are using the Weighted Sum Approach method to determine currently the most suitable drivetrain for urban busses.

Relationships between the activities of bus carriers and rail passenger traffic (and the railway offer) are examined in this article. The study was carried out in peripheral areas located at the Polish and Czech borderlands in Lower Silesia province. High quality rail transport generally increases the demand for transport services. Therefore, the proper development of transport offer plays a key role in the functioning of public transport systems, the backbone of which is rail transport. The study also shows that under conditions of transport market deregulation, bus carriers have developed a competitive network which is not complementary to rail transport. As a consequence, the deregulation of the transport market has increased the risk of transport exclusion.

In this paper, geomatics techniques were used to collect, build, and analyze a geo-database of the bus transport network. Spatial identification of bus routes and bus stops using GPS was performed using GIS to link and analyze the necessary metadata with the available spatial data. The criteria used to assess bus service coverage were as follows: the spatial coverage in terms of the walking distance to the transport service, the adequacy of the transport network length, and extent of supply availability of the bus transport system. The results revealed that the population “living in 47% of the city’s urban area” could arrive at a transport service within a period of less than 5 minutes (in other words, a walking distance of less than 400 m), which is the typical time to arrival. Furthermore, the study concluded that the current length of the transport network is sufficient to provide typical spatial coverage for the city's entire urban area if redistributed.

This paper is aimed to compare two regulations concerned with the issue of determining the amount of a provable loss or, newly, a compensation, i.e. Government Decree No. 493/2004 Sb., regulating the provable loss in the public line transport and specifying the method of the exercise of the professional government supervision in the road transport over funding the traffic services, and Regulation No. 296/2010 Sb. on the procedures for establishing the financial model and setting the maximum amount of the compensation. Both regulations suggest the different methodology for determining the amount of compensation in a transport company for the accounting period. The goal is to analyse which methodology encourages the explanatory power of individual items of economically substantiated costs and revenues and whether it has a consistent influence on the final value of compensation. The question is raised of whether we can achieve the same or at least a similar amount of compensation if both methodologies of the provable loss or compensation calculation are applied in the municipal bus transport.

The pressure to the environment protection within the concept of sustainable development and many national initiatives is constantly rising. This is also reflected in the field of transport. Currently, the issue of electro mobility is often discussed. Acquisition of eco-friendly cars or electric buses has the potential for improving the environment and greenhouse gas production situation. However, the acquisition cost and the operating costs of the electric vehicles generate a certain cost structure that is different compared to the diesel vehicles. The amount of state aid as well as possibility of such aid for purchasing electric bus still remains uncertain. The aim of this paper is to highlight the possibility of using life cycle cost analysis to quantify the support for the acquisition of electric buses against diesel buses with respect to the different structure of costs and the time value of money. This difference was set at the level Difference set to 22%, which is a required level for the co-financing from the government, self-governance or EU structural funds. In monetary terms, that means the amount of 132 000 € for an electric bus.

Improvement in directness of bus services, i.e., without intermediate transfers, can be a key leverage to incentivize the use of bus transport across cities worldwide. Thus, there is a clear need to design the bus route network for an increase in direct bus services and consequently enhance bus transport attractiveness. Accordingly, this work develops two mathematical formulations to optimize route network redesign without a major overhaul of the existing network. The results of the formulations are easy to implement and also computationally tractable. The first formulation determines alternative feasible paths for all given routes. The second determines the set of paths that maximizes direct passenger-kilometers (PKM) travelled over the given road network specified by a set of Origin-Destination pairs. The approach is applied to an area in Delhi, India using CPLEX and MATLAB for computations and analyses. Results reveal that for the redesigned network, the improvement in direct PKM travel is more than 35%. Additionally, there is more than 8% travel time saving as compared to the existing network due to better bus stop coverage. Lastly, the formulations have the capability to either incorporate or leave out metro (or other public transport) services available in the city. Further, the models also give the ability to policy makers to set resource constraints according to the availability of resources. • Tractable mathematical models to maximize directness. • The models work within the existing framework of routes. • The models give the ability to policy makers to set resource constraints. • The models have the capability to incorporate other modes of PT. • The models demonstrated to yield substantial improvement in directness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the transport field, two characteristics–inter-temporal dependency and fuzziness–need to be considered when assessing transport performance. First, input and output levels are inter-temporal dependent due to heavy capital investment and because quasi-fixed input can influence output levels over multiple periods. Second, conventional Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models are, in nature, formulated with quantitative variables. However, qualitative measurements that are characterized with "vagueness" or "fuzziness" are as important as quantitative variables for multi-period transport performance assessment. To rectify these problems, the present study extends previous research by proposing a Dynamic Fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis (DFDEA) method for assessing the comparative efficiency where inter-temporal dependence exists in operating production processes with some "fuzzy" variables. An case study was conducted to evaluate the performance of city bus transport companies in Taipei, Taiwan. Results showed the superiority of the proposed DFDEA model by comparing the results with static models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research was to analyze urban travel services and Krasnodar Idem regional resort agglomeration (RA). Research method was a survey one and statistical data were collected through interview and field research. Findings showed that the field of transport services merges many components (sub-systems) and determines their interactions and capabilities. Research findings also indicated that Passenger Motor Transport Services (PTS) in RA region has the required potential and sources for development of a competitive and rational process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pressure to the environment protection within the concept of sustainable development and many national initiatives is constantly rising. This is also reflected in the field of transport. Currently, the issue of electro mobility is often discussed. Acquisition of eco-friendly cars or electric buses has the potential for improving the environment and greenhouse gas production situation. However, the acquisition cost and the operating costs of the electric vehicles generate a certain cost structure that is different compared to the diesel vehicles. The amount of state aid as well as possibility of such aid for purchasing electric bus still remains uncertain. The aim of this paper is to highlight the possibility of using life cycle cost analysis to quantify the support for the acquisition of electric buses against diesel buses with respect to the different structure of costs and the time value of money. This difference was set at the level Difference set to 22%, which is a required level for the co-financing from the government, self-governance or EU structural funds. In monetary terms, that means the amount of 132 000 € for an electric bus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The survey, which consisted of counting, polling and recording, has provided data on the existing volume of passenger flows in public bus stations/terminals within the Primorsko-goranska (Littoral-Mountainous) County (hereinafter: the PG County), the density rate of passengers on bus lines that operate on County connections and on bus lines connecting the PG County with other counties in Croatia. In addition to the quantitative parameters, the qualitative data were analyzed that had been obtained by polling passengers at the Rijeka bus terminal, whereupon detailed opinions of direct users of the service were elaborated with the aim of obtaining a picture of the current situation of the public bus transport in the PG County. The data collected were used in evaluating the quality of the passenger transport service provided and in determining measures to be taken in order to bring both the actual quality of transport and the satisfaction of passengers to a higher level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A suitable model that enables the analysis of dynamic relationships between transport systems is important for managers to make real-time reaction strategies. This study proposes an autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach that can point a way to interpret the long- and short-term relationships between intercity transport systems. To test the applicability of the approach with regard to evaluating the dynamic competitive relationships between intercity transport systems, an empirical study sample is adopted in evaluating competition between high-speed rail (HSR) and intercity bus services. The results indicate that HSR has a long-run impact on intercity bus transport and the intercity bus transport market is positively affected by its previous operations and negatively influenced by the previous performance of HSR. However, in the short-run, the current period performance of HSR positively affects the intercity bus transport market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The punctuality of local public bus transportation contributes to the service quality and has impact on mode choice. Appropriate planning and control measures as well as adequate passenger information require efficient analysis and prediction methods. Advanced fleet tracking systems provide enough data for these research purposes. The main factors that cause schedule deviation has been identified through the analysis of the data. As important time elements of the journey time are dwell times at stops, the research focused on it; however, the elaborated database structure is adequate also for analysis of the other time elements, which coincides with our further research intentions too. Innovative methods based on the historical data have been elaborated for the prediction of dwell times. The essence of the method: multi-variate analysis of the dwell times by exploration of the significant influencing factors, and then prediction of times based on the factors describing the certain situations. Soundness of the methods has been verified with examples, and the results well approximated the real values. First published online: 24 May 2016

The punctuality of local public bus transportation contributes to the service quality and has impact on mode choice. Appropriate planning and control measures as well as adequate passenger information require efficient analysis and prediction methods. Advanced fleet tracking systems provide enough data for these research purposes. The main factors that cause schedule deviation has been identified through the analysis of the data. As important time elements of the journey time are dwell times at stops, the research focused on it; however, the elaborated database structure is adequate also for analysis of the other time elements, which coincides with our further research intentions too. Innovative methods based on the historical data have been elaborated for the prediction of dwell times. The essence of the method: multi-variate analysis of the dwell times by exploration of the significant influencing factors, and then prediction of times based on the factors describing the certain situations. Soundness of the methods has been verified with examples, and the results well approximated the real values. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This research evaluated the effectiveness of tendered bus public transportation (PT) in improving the attractiveness of that service in order to promote sustainable mobility. This was accomplished by characterizing the gap between the quality of service (QOS) supplied by contract regimes and that which is demanded by passengers. Analysis of a customer satisfaction survey aimed at bus users provided insight into their ranking of 14 QOS parameters while 13 active service contracts were analyzed for their impact on QOS. In-depth interviews with relevant experts completed the complex narrative that is Israel’s policy of privatization in PT. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses helped identify those QOS parameters most in demand by passengers and impacted by contracts. The results show that the gap is minimal, high demand parameters receive increased priority in contracts. In addition this research documented an evolution in the method contracts employed to provide QOS. Late model contracts define an increasingly higher minimum QOS; but also strongly limit the operator’s ability to make service changes. This is a trend which should improve QOS in Israel but reduce the incentive for operator enacted QOS initiatives. Despite its obvious success to date, it might be time to change again the contract regime for the provision of competitive bus services in Israel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to deepen the understanding of what are the underlying reasons for the increasing cost of public transport in general and bus services in particular in a Swedish context. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with managers at the bus operators as well as the authority organizations. This paper contributes by identifying nine categories that can be the dominating factors behind the increasing costs of public bus services in Sweden. The identified categories of cost drivers are; of traffic appearance (peak times), greening of buses, age requirements, the contract period, the accessibility customization, special requirements on buses, collective agreements (working time regulation), tendering and contracting process, and finally, counterproductive political governance. It can be concluded that many of the cost drivers originate from the circumstances of the process of public procurement, such as different demands for different regions in Sweden as well as the trade-off between the bus operators' wishes for higher flexibility in the contracts and the traffic authorities' fear of more risks and thereby higher bids in the end. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public transport, especially the bus transport, can reduce the private car usage and fuel consumption, and alleviate traffic congestion. However, when traveling in buses, the travelers not only care about the waiting time, but also care about the crowdedness in the bus itself. Excessively overcrowded bus may drive away the anxious travelers and make them reluctant to take buses. So accurate, real-time and reliable passenger demand prediction becomes necessary, which can help determine the bus headway and help reduce the waiting time of passengers. Based on a large database from a real bus system, this paper aims to present a passenger demand prediction system for mobile users. The system includes a server-side bus information data stream processing and mining program and a client-side mobile application for Android smartphones. The server program continuously monitors for each bus stop the number of passengers waiting at the bus stop, the number of passengers that will pass the bus stop, as well as the traffic conditions in the area around the stop. It delivers real time bus and traffic information to mobile users via restful web services. The client-side location-based mobile application consumes these services to help mobile users make informed transportation choices. For example the availability of buses might be a deterrent when they are too crowded. However, there are three major challenges for predicting the passenger demands on bus services: inhomogeneous, seasonal bursty periods and periodicities. To overcome the challenges, we propose three predictive models and further take a data stream ensemble framework to predict the number of passengers. We develop a prototype system with different types of Android based mobile phones and comprehensively experiment over a 22-week period. The evaluation results suggest that the proposed system achieves outstanding prediction accuracy among 86,411 passenger demands on bus services, more than 78% of them are accurately forecasted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]