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Across the Western United States, human development into the wildland urban interface (WUI) is contributing to increasing wildfire damage. Given that natural disasters often cause greater harm within socio-economically vulnerable groups, research is needed to explore the potential for disproportionate impacts associated with wildfire. Using Zillow Transaction and Assessment Database (ZTRAX), hereafter Zillow, real estate data, we explored whether lower-priced structures were more likely to be damaged during the most destructive, recent wildfires in Southern California. Within fire perimeters occurring from 2000-2019, we matched property price data to burned and unburned structures. To be included in the final dataset, fire perimeters had to surround at least 25 burned and 25 unburned structures and have been sold at most seven years before the fire; five fires fit these criteria. We found evidence to support our hypothesis that lower-priced properties were more likely to be damaged, however, the likelihood of damage and the influence of property value significantly varied across individual fire perimeters. When considering fires individually, properties within two 2003 fires-the Cedar and Grand Prix-Old Fires-had statistically significantly decreasing burn damage with increasing property value. Occurring in 2007 and later, the other three fires (Witch-Poomacha, Thomas, and Woolsey) showed no significant relationship between price and damage. Consistent with other studies, topographic position, slope, elevation, and vegetation were also significantly associated with the likelihood of a structure being damaged during the wildfire. Driving time to the nearest fire station and previously identified fire hazard were also significant. Our results suggest that further studies on the extent and reason for disproportionate impacts of wildfire are needed. In the meantime, decision makers should consider allocating wildfire risk mitigation resources-such as fire-fighting and wildfire structural preparedness resources-to more socioeconomically vulnerable neighborhoods.

A major limitation of the most widely used current animal models of alcohol dependence is that they use forced exposure to ethanol including ethanol-containing liquid diet and chronic intermittent ethanol (CIE) vapor to produce clinically relevant blood alcohol levels (BAL) and addiction-like behaviors. We recently developed a novel animal model of voluntary induction of alcohol dependence using ethanol vapor self-administration (EVSA). However, it is unknown whether EVSA leads to an escalation of alcohol drinking per se, and whether such escalation is associated with neuroadaptations in brain regions related to stress, reward, and habit. To address these issues, we compared the levels of alcohol drinking during withdrawal between rats passively exposed to alcohol (CIE) or voluntarily exposed to EVSA and measured the number of Fos+ neurons during acute withdrawal (16 h) in key brain regions important for stress, reward, and habit-related processes. CIE and EVSA rats exhibited similar BAL and similar escalation of alcohol drinking and motivation for alcohol during withdrawal. Acute withdrawal from EVSA and CIE recruited a similar number of Fos+ neurons in the Central Amygdala (CeA), however, acute withdrawal from EVSA recruited a higher number of Fos+ neurons in every other brain region analyzed compared to acute withdrawal from CIE. In summary, while the behavioral measures of alcohol dependence between the voluntary (EVSA) and passive (CIE) model were similar, the recruitment of neuronal ensembles during acute withdrawal was very different. The EVSA model may be particularly useful to unveil the neuronal networks and pharmacology responsible for the voluntary induction and maintenance of alcohol dependence and may improve translational studies by providing preclinical researchers with an animal model that highlights the volitional aspects of alcohol use disorder.

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the "firehose" of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

Abstract Despite the popularity of fiber photometry (FP), its integration with operant behavior paradigms is progressing slowly. This can be attributed to the complex protocols in operant behavior – resulting in a combination of diverse non-predictable behavioral responses and scheduled events, thereby complicating data analysis. To overcome this, we developed Pyfiber, an open-source python library which facilitates the merge of FP with operant behavior by relating changes in fluorescent signals within a neuronal population to behavioral responses and events. Pyfiber helps to 1. Extract events and responses that occur in operant behavior, 2. Extract and process the FP signals, 3. Select events of interest and align them to the corresponding FP signals, 4. Apply appropriate signal normalization and analysis according to the type of events, 5. Run analysis on multiple individuals and sessions, 6. Collect results in an easily readable format. Pyfiber is suitable for use with many different fluorescent sensors and operant behavior protocols. It was developed using Doric lenses FP systems and Imetronic behavioral systems, but it possesses the capability to process data from alternative systems. This work sets a solid foundation for analyzing the relationship between different dimensions of complex behavioral paradigms with fluorescent signals from brain regions of interest.

The rat oxycodone and cocaine biobanks contain samples that vary by genotypes (by using genetically diverse genotyped HS rats), phenotypes (by measuring addiction-like behaviors in an advanced SA model), timepoints (samples are collected longitudinally before, during, and after SA, and terminally at three different timepoints in the addiction cycle: intoxication, withdrawal, and abstinence or without exposure to drugs through age-matched naive rats), samples collected (organs, cells, biofluids, feces), preservation (paraformaldehyde-fixed, snap-frozen, or cryopreserved) and application (proteomics, transcriptomics, microbiomics, metabolomics, epigenetics, anatomy, circuitry analysis, biomarker discovery, etc.Substance use disorders (SUDs) are pervasive in our society and have substantial personal and socioeconomical costs. A critical hurdle in identifying biomarkers and novel targets for medication development is the lack of resources for obtaining biological samples with a detailed behavioral characterization of SUD. Moreover, it is nearly impossible to find longitudinal samples. As part of two ongoing large-scale behavioral genetic studies in heterogeneous stock (HS) rats, we have created two preclinical biobanks using well-validated long access (LgA) models of intravenous cocaine and oxycodone self-administration (SA) and comprehensive characterization of addiction-related behaviors. The genetic diversity in HS rats mimics diversity in the human population and includes individuals that are vulnerable or resilient to compulsive-like responding for cocaine or oxycodone. Longitudinal samples are collected throughout the experiment, before exposure to the drug, during intoxication, acute withdrawal, and protracted abstinence, and include naive, age-matched controls. Samples include, but are not limited to, blood plasma, feces and urine, whole brains, brain slices and punches, kidney, liver, spleen, ovary, testis, and adrenal glands. Three preservation methods (fixed in formaldehyde, snap-frozen, or cryopreserved) are used to facilitate diverse downstream applications such as proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, epigenomics, microbiomics, neuroanatomy, biomarker discovery, and other cellular and molecular approaches. To date, >20,000 samples have been collected from over 1000 unique animals and made available free of charge to non-profit institutions through https://www.cocainebiobank.org/ and https://www.oxycodonebiobank.org/.

RationaleOver the last decade, oxycodone has become one of the most widely abused drugs in the USA. Oxycodone use disorder (OUD) is a serious health problem that has prompted a need to develop animal models of OUD that have both face and predictive validity. Oxycodone use in humans is more prevalent in women and leads to pronounced hyperalgesia and irritability during withdrawal. However, unclear is whether current animal models of oxycodone self-administration recapitulate these characteristics in humans.ObjectivesWe assessed the face validity of a model of extended-access oxycodone self-administration in rats by examining the escalation of oxycodone intake and behavioral symptoms of withdrawal, including irritability-like behavior and mechanical nociception, in male and female Wistar rats.ResultsBoth male and female rats escalated their oxycodone intake over fourteen 12-h self-administration sessions. After escalation, female rats administered more drug than male rats. No differences in plasma oxycodone levels were identified, but males had a significantly higher level of oxycodone in the brain at 30 min. Extended access to oxycodone significantly decreased aggressive-like behavior and increased defensive-like behaviors when tested immediately after a 12-h self-administration session, followed by a rebound increase in aggressive-like behavior 12 h into withdrawal. Tests of mechanical nociception thresholds during withdrawal indicated pronounced hyperalgesia. No sex differences in irritability-like behavior or pain sensitivity were observed.ConclusionsThe present study demonstrated the face validity of the extended access model of oxycodone self-administration by identifying sex differences in the escalation of oxycodone intake and pronounced changes in pain and affective states.

Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions.

Climate and land use patterns are expected to change dramatically in the coming century, raising concern about their effects on wildfire patterns and subsequent impacts to human communities. The relative influence of climate versus land use on fires and their impacts, however, remains unclear, particularly given the substantial geographical variability in fire-prone places like California. We developed a modeling framework to compare the importance of climatic and human variables for explaining fire patterns and structure loss for three diverse California landscapes, then projected future large fire and structure loss probability under two different climate (hot-dry or warm-wet) and two different land use (rural or urban residential growth) scenarios. The relative importance of climate and housing pattern varied across regions and according to fire size or whether the model was for large fires or structure loss. The differing strengths of these relationships, in addition to differences in the nature and magnitude of projected climate or land use change, dictated the extent to which large fires or structure loss were projected to change in the future. Despite this variability, housing and human infrastructure were consistently more responsible for explaining fire ignitions and structure loss probability, whereas climate, topography, and fuel variables were more important for explaining large fire patterns. For all study areas, most structure loss occurred in areas with low housing density (from 0.08 to 2.01 units/ha), and expansion of rural residential land use increased structure loss probability in the future. Regardless of future climate scenario, large fire probability was only projected to increase in the northern and interior parts of the state, whereas climate change had no projected impact on fire probability in southern California. Given the variation in fire-climate relationships and land use effects, policy and management decision-making should be customized for specific geographical regions.

The "Rainbow Journalism" (RJ) course was a way to proactively channel the devastating effects 45 had on the CSUSB community. This article focuses on the decolonial tactics of RJ, which are simultaneously founded in the "transfronteriza" experiences of the author and Xicanx, Africana, Feminist, Queer resistance approaches. Both have root in post-colonial Indigenous and Africana methods of resistance found in Latinx "modos" of survival/preservation. Current decolonial pedagogies proposed by people of color are explained using washed-out mid-twentieth-century pedagogical terms (i.e., situated learning, participatory action research, community service learning) that oversimplify the precursory resistance pedagogy, while erasing our "historia."

Because of the importance of the Central Valley of California, USA, to shorebirds along the Pacific Flyway, conservation investments have been made in the area's agricultural fields and managed wetlands. Increasingly, landowner incentive programs are being used to deliver shorebird habitat, presenting opportunities to answer remaining questions about which implementation strategies and field management practices are most effective at attracting birds. To provide management guidance for these investments, we collected and analyzed 5 years of data (2014–2018) on shorebird abundance in flooded rice fields enrolled in a dynamic habitat incentive program. The program incentivized flooding in fallow and post‐harvest rice fields in seasons when habitat is relatively sparse, specifically the early fall and late spring. Across nearly 9,000 field observations over 5 years, we explored the relationship between abundance and density (birds/ha) of shorebirds and vegetation cover, soil clay, landscape‐level flooding, and local flood timing, duration, and depth. We observed more shorebirds in fields that were approximately 50% flooded, had water depths of 5–10 cm, and had minimal rice straw or stubble cover, with strong or very strong evidence for each of these relationships. We found that the timing of habitat provisioning was important, with moderate evidence that earlier fall flooding and strong evidence that the duration of fall flooding was associated with higher shorebird density. We observed lower shorebird densities in locations with ample flooded rice habitat in surrounding areas, potentially because shorebirds spread out across the landscape. We found very strong evidence that flooding consistency, either at a site that was continually flooded over many months or a site that had been flooded in previous years, was associated with higher shorebird density. Soil clay content was associated with decreased observed shorebird density, potentially through its influence on the ability of shorebirds to forage for invertebrate prey. These results suggest best practices for shorebird habitat creation in agricultural landscapes, providing important information for conservation and population recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In arid and Mediterranean regions, landscape‐scale wetland conservation requires understanding how wildlife responds to dynamic freshwater availability and conservation actions to enhance wetland habitat. Taking advantage of Landsat satellite data and structured and community science bird survey data, we built species distribution models to describe how three duck species, the Northern Pintail (Anas acuta), Green‐winged Teal (Anas crecca), and Northern Shoveler (Anas clypeata), respond to freshwater supply and food resources on different flooded land cover types in the Central Valley of California. Specifically, our models compared duck habitat suitability between the wettest and driest conditions in each month from September through April. Using abundance‐weighted boosted regression trees, we created three sets of species occurrence models based on different covariates: (1) near real‐time (hereafter “real‐time”) covariates in which duck observations were matched to the water availability within the 16‐day window of a Landsat observation, (2) a combination of real‐time covariates and waterfowl food resource covariates describing annual corn and rice biomass and managed wetland moist soil seed yield estimates derived from Landsat data, and (3) long‐term average covariates—the most common approach to species distribution modeling—in which long‐term average surface water availability was used. We modeled the monthly occurrence of three duck species as a function of surface water availability, land cover type, road density, temperature, and bird data source. We found that dry conditions result in reduced habitat suitability, with the biggest reductions in November through January and in agricultural fields; in contrast, suitability of flooded wetland habitat was relatively robust to surface water availability. When models of habitat suitability based on long‐term average climate conditions were compared to models based on real‐time conditions, the highest long‐term suitability values occurred in areas where suitability was high regardless of whether it was a wet or a dry year. While all models performed well, the inclusion of crop and wetland plant yield covariates resulted in slightly higher model performance. Overall, species distribution models created using data on the environmental conditions present at the time of bird observations can aid conservation efforts under extreme conditions over large spatial scales.

GPR139 is an orphan G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) that is expressed mainly in the brain, with the highest expression in the medial habenula. The modulation of GPR139 receptor function has been hypothesized to be beneficial in the treatment of some mental disorders, but behavioral studies have not yet provided causal evidence of the role of GPR139 in brain dysfunction. Because of the high expression of GPR139 in the habenula, a critical brain region in addiction, we hypothesized that GPR139 may play role in alcohol dependence. Thus, we tested the effect of GPR139 receptor activation using the selective, brain-penetrant receptor agonist JNJ-63533054 on addiction-like behaviors in alcohol-dependent male rats. Systemic administration of JNJ-63533054 (30 mg/kg but not 10 mg/kg, p.o.) reversed the escalation of alcohol self-administration in alcohol-dependent rats, without affecting water or saccharin intake in dependent rats or alcohol intake in nondependent rats. Moreover, systemic JNJ-63533054 administration decreased withdrawal-induced hyperalgesia, without affecting somatic signs of alcohol withdrawal. Further analysis demonstrated that JNJ-63533054 was effective only in a subgroup of dependent rats that exhibited compulsive-like alcohol drinking. Finally, site-specific microinjection of JNJ-63533054 in the habenula but not interpeduncular nucleus (IPN) reduced both alcohol self-administration and withdrawal-induced hyperalgesia in dependent rats. These results provide robust preclinical evidence that GPR139 receptor activation reverses key addiction-like behaviors in dependent animals, suggest that GPR139 may be a novel target for the treatment of alcohol use disorder, and demonstrate that GPR139 is functionally relevant in regulating mammalian behavior.

Previous studies showed that the glyoxalase 1 (Glo1) gene modulates anxiety-like behavior, seizure susceptibility, depression-like behavior, and alcohol drinking in the drinking-in-the-dark paradigm in nondependent mice. Administration of the small-molecule GLO1 inhibitor S-bromobenzylglutathione cyclopentyl diester (pBBG) decreased alcohol drinking in nondependent mice, suggesting a possible therapeutic strategy. However, the preclinical therapeutic efficacy of pBBG in animal models of alcohol dependence remains to be demonstrated. We tested the effect of pBBG (7.5 and 25 mg/kg) on operant alcohol self-administration in alcohol-dependent and nondependent rats. Wistar rats were trained to self-administer 10% alcohol (v/v) and made dependent by chronic intermittent passive exposure to alcohol vapor for 5 weeks. Pretreatment with pBBG dose-dependently reduced alcohol self-administration in both nondependent and dependent animals, without affecting water self-administration. pBBG treatment was more effective in dependent rats than in nondependent rats. These data extend previous findings that implicated Glo1 in alcohol drinking in nondependent mice by showing even more profound effects in alcohol-dependent rats. These results suggest that the pharmacological inhibition of GLO1 is a relevant therapeutic target for the treatment of alcohol use disorders.

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low-elevation provenance had more than three-fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high-elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low- and high-elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long-term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low-elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species' range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.

Accurately predicting upslope shifts in subalpine tree ranges with warming requires understanding how future forest populations will be affected by climate change, as these are the seed sources for new tree line and alpine populations. Early life history stages are particularly sensitive to climate and are also influenced by genetic variation among populations. We tested the climate sensitivity of germination and initial development for two widely distributed subalpine conifers, using controlled-environment growth chambers with one temperature regime from subalpine forest in the Colorado Rocky Mountains and one 5 °C warmer, and two soil moisture levels. We tracked germination rate and timing, rate of seedling development, and seedling morphology for two seed provenances separated by ~300 m elevation. Warming advanced germination timing and initial seedling development by a total of ~2 weeks, advances comparable to mean differences between provenances. Advances were similar for both provenances and species; however, warming reduced the overall germination rate, as did low soil moisture, only for Picea engelmannii. A three-year field warming and watering experiment planted with the same species and provenances yielded responses qualitatively consistent with the lab trials. Together these experiments indicate that in a warmer, drier climate, P. engelmannii germination, and thus regeneration, could decline, which could lead to declining subalpine forest populations, while Pinus flexilis forest populations could remain robust as a seed source for upslope range shifts.

Although most conservation efforts address the direct, local causes of biodiversity loss, effective long-term conservation will require complementary efforts to reduce the upstream economic pressures, such as demands for food and forest products, which ultimately drive these downstream losses. Here, we present a wildlife footprint analysis that links global losses of wild birds to consumer purchases across 57 economic sectors in 129 regions. The United States, India, China, and Brazil have the largest regional wildlife footprints, while per-person footprints are highest in Mongolia, Australia, Botswana, and the United Arab Emirates. A US$100 purchase of bovine meat or rice products occupies approximately 0.1 km2 of wild bird ranges, displacing 1-2 individual birds, for 1 year. Globally significant importer regions, including Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and France, have large footprints that drive wildlife losses elsewhere in the world and represent important targets for consumption-focused conservation attention.

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate‐sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long‐term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate‐sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high‐elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming‐driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low‐elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high‐elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high‐elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climateâsensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from longâterm forest surveys, we explored whether the climateâsensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, highâelevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warmingâdriven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the lowâelevation, âwarm edgeâ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the highâelevation, âcool edgeâ. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations â especially in the presence of increased moisture â and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in highâelevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.

A species' response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species' ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species--Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors--climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency--emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations.

Abstract Background There is a potential for direct model manufacturing of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) using 3D printing technique for generating flexible semi-transparent prototypes. A patient-specific AAA model was manufactured using fused deposition modelling (FDM) 3D printing technology. A flexible, semi-transparent thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU), called Cheetah Water (produced by Ninjatek, USA), was used as the flexible, transparent material for model manufacture with a hydrophilic support structure 3D printed with polyvinyl alcohol (PVA). Printing parameters were investigated to evaluate their effect on 3D–printing precision and transparency of the final model. ISO standard tear resistance tests were carried out on Ninjatek Cheetah specimens for a comparison of tear strength with silicone rubbers. Results It was found that an increase in printing speed decreased printing accuracy, whilst using an infill percentage of 100% and printing nozzle temperature of 255 °C produced the most transparent results. The model had fair transparency, allowing external inspection of model inserts such as stent grafts, and good flexibility with an overall discrepancy between CAD and physical model average wall thicknesses of 0.05 mm (2.5% thicker than the CAD model). The tear resistance test found Ninjatek Cheetah TPU to have an average tear resistance of 83 kN/m, higher than any of the silicone rubbers used in previous AAA model manufacture. The model had lower cost (4.50 GBP per model), shorter manufacturing time (25 h 3 min) and an acceptable level of accuracy (2.61% error) compared to other methods. Conclusions It was concluded that the model would be of use in endovascular aneurysm repair planning and education, particularly for practicing placement of hooked or barbed stents, due to the model’s balance of flexibility, transparency, robustness and cost-effectiveness.

A theory of spatial structure in ecological communities is presented and tested. At the core of the theory is a simple allocation rule for the assembly of species in space. The theory leads, with no adjustable parameters, to nonrandorn statistical predictions for the spatial distribution of species at multiple spatial scales. The distributions are such that the abundance of a species at the largest measured scale uniquely determines the spatial-abundance distribution of the individuals of that species at smaller spatial scales. The shape of the species-area relationship, the endemics-area relationship, a scale-dependent community-level spatial-abundance distribution, the species-abundance distribution at small spatial scales, an index of intraspecific aggregation, the range-area relationship, and the dependence of species turnover on interpatch distance and on patch size are also uniquely predicted as a function solely of the list of abundances of the species at the largest spatial scale. We show that the spatial structure of three spatially explicit vegetation census data sets (i.e., a 64-m(2) serpentine grassland plot, a 50-ha moist. tropical forest plot, and a 9.68-ha dry tropical forest plot) are generally consistent with the predictions of the theory, despite the very simple statistical assumption upon which the theory is based, and the absence of adjustable parameters. However, deviations between predicted and observed distributions do arise for the species with the highest abundances; the pattern of those deviations indicates that the theory, which currently contains no explicit description of interaction mechanisms among individuals within species, could be improved with the incorporation of intraspecific density dependence.