Search

Background: Duodenal papilla carcinoma(DPC) is prone to relapse even after radical pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) (including robotic, laparoscopic and open approach).This study aimed to develop web calculators to predict early recurrence(ER) (within two years after surgery) and long-term survival in patients with DPC after PD. Methods: Patients with DPC after radical PD were included. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors.Two web calculators were developed based on independent risk factors in the training cohort and then tested in the validation cohort. Results: Of the 251 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 180 and 71 patients were enrolled in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that tumor size [Odds Ratio (OR) 1.386; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1070-1.797; P= 0.014]; number of lymph node metastasis (OR 2.535; 95% CI 1.114-5.769; P= 0.027), perineural invasion (OR 3.078; 95% CI 1.147-8.257; P = 0.026), and tumor differentiation (OR 3.552; 95% CI 1.132-11.152; P = 0.030) were independent risk factors for ER. Nomogram based on the above four factors achieved good C-statistics of 0.759 and 0.729 in predicting ER in the training and the validation cohorts, respectively. Time-dependent ROC analysis (timeROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the nomogram provided superior diagnostic capacity and net benefit compared with single variable. Conclusions:This study developed and validated two web calculators that can predict ER and long-term survival in patients with DPC with high degree of stability and accuracy.

Background Hip fractures are common in elderly patients, and almost all the patients undergo surgery. This study aimed to develop a novel modified lymphocyte C-reactive protein (CRP) score (mLCS) to simply and conveniently predict 3-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing intertrochanteric fracture surgery. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on elderly patients who underwent intertrochanteric fracture surgery between January 2014 and December 2017. The mLCS was developed according to the value of CRP and lymphocyte counts. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for 3-year mortality after surgery. The performances of the lymphocyte CRP score (LCS) and mLCS to predict 3-year mortality were then compared using C-statistics, decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results A total of 291 patients were enrolled, of whom 52 (17.9%) died within 3 years after surgery. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, mLCS (hazard ratio (HR), 5.415; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.743–16.822; P = 0.003) was significantly associated with postoperative 3-year mortality. The C-statistics of LCS and mLCS for predicting 3-year mortality were 0.644 and 0.686, respectively. The NRI (mLCS vs. LCS, 0.018) and IDI (mLCS vs. LCS, 0.017) indicated that the mLCS performed better than the LCS. DCA also showed that mLCS had a higher clinical net benefit. Conclusions mLCS is a promising predictor that can simply and conveniently predict 3-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing intertrochanteric fracture surgery.