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27. A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF GOUT PATIENTS IN A GRADE A TERTIARY HOSPITAL IN QINGDAO, CHINA

Author

GUO Jianguo, SUN Mengzhu, ZHOU Xiaobin

Subjects
gout, forecasting, models, statistical, time factors, health education, prevention and control, ambulatory care, Medicine
Abstract

Objective To investigate the rules of gout patients attending the hospital by analyzing their time series data, and to provide a reference for the prevention and treatment of gout in medical and health departments. Methods Time series data were collected from the gout patients who attended a grade A tertiary hospital in Qingdao from 2013 to 2018, and a descriptive analysis was performed for the data including the time of patients attending the hospital, age, and sex. An Autoregressive Integra-ted Moving Average (ARIMA) model was established based on the time series data of gout patients in 2013—2018, and the data of gout patients from January to October, 2019, were used for the extrapolation validation of this model. The X-11 method was used to analyze seasonal factors, long-term trends, and random fluctuations. Results Among the gout patients attending the hospital in 2013—2018, male patients accounted for 94.68% and female patients accounted for 5.32%; in terms of age composition, the patients aged 30-39 years, 40-49 years, 50-59 years, and >60 years accounted for 21.50%, 21.67%, 19.74%, and 23.32%, respectively. The ARIMA model established based on time series data of the gout patients in 2013—2018 was ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12, with an AIC value of 674.89 and an SBC value of 679.05, and the extrapolation verification of the predictive effect of this model showed an MAE value of 86.28 and an MAPE value of 7.64%. The X-11 method for seasonal stability (F=27.81,P0.05) showed that the time series of gout patients had stable seasonality and was not affected by time. The number of patients attending the hospital in July and August each year was higher than the mean value, and that in February was lower than the mean value; the number of patients was stable in the other months. Conclusion The ARIMA model is effective with stable prediction results, and combined with the seasonal factors and long-term trend extracted by the X-11 method, it can better explain the rules of gout patients attending the hospital and thus provide a reference for health authorities and medical institutions to formulate the prevention and control policies for gout, conduct health education, and allocate human resources.

Published
2023
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34. Enhanced energy storage properties of silver niobate antiferroelectric ceramics with A-site Eu3+ substitution and their structural origin.

Author

Shi, Peng, Liu, Jin, Song, Yuechan, Wu, Wenwen, Liu, Lina, Zhou, Xiaobin, Chen, Xiaoming, Lou, Xiaojie, and Liu, Peng

Subjects
ENERGY storage, LEAD-free ceramics, DIELECTRIC materials, POWER resources, POWER density, FERROELECTRIC ceramics, CERAMICS
Abstract

AgNbO3 (AN)-based lead-free antiferroelectric ceramics are widely studied for their use as dielectric capacitor materials. In this study, Eu3+-doped AN ceramics were prepared and the results show that Eu3+ diffused into the AN lattice. The ceramics were formed by M1 and M2 phases coexisting at room temperature, as distinct from the M1 (M: monoclinic) phase of pure AN. Electrical properties and structural characterization showed that the antiferroelectric stability of the ceramics increases with the increase in Eu3+ levels. At room temperature, Ag0.94Eu0.02NbO3 ceramic exhibited a good energy storage density of 5.3 J/cm3 and a high efficiency of 71.9%. When the temperature rises from room temperature to 140 °C, the efficiency of the sample decreases from 80.4% to 67.1% and Wr decreases from 2.1 to 2.0 J/cm3, which indicates that the sample has good temperature stability. The time constant (t0.9) of this sample was less than 60 ns and the power density (PD) was 51.3 MW/cm3, indicating excellent charge–discharge capabilities. This novel ceramic is expected to be used as a new dielectric capacitor material for pulsed power supplies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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