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In the international oil trade network (iOTN), trade shocks triggered by extreme events may spread over the entire network along the trade links of the central economies and even lead to the collapse of the whole system. In this study, we focus on the concept of "too central to fail" and use traditional centrality indicators as strategic indicators for simulating attacks on economic nodes, and simulates various situations in which the structure and function of the global oil trade network are lost when the economies suffer extreme trade shocks. The simulation results show that the global oil trade system has become more vulnerable in recent years. The regional aggregation of oil trade is an essential source of iOTN's vulnerability. Maintaining global oil trade stability and security requires a focus on economies with greater influence within the network module of the iOTN. International organizations such as OPEC and OECD established more trade links around the world, but their influence on the iOTN is declining. We improve the framework of oil security and trade risk assessment based on the topological index of iOTN, and provide a reference for finding methods to maintain network robustness and trade stability.

The possibility of reconciliation between seemingly mutually exclusive properties in one system can not only lead to theoretical breakthroughs but also potential novel applications. The research on the coexistence of two purportedly contra-indicated properties, ferroelectricity/polarity and conductivity, proposed by Anderson and Blount over 50 years ago was recently revitalized by the discovery of the first unambiguous polar metal LiOsO3 and further fueled by the demonstration of the first switchable ferroelectric metal WTe2. In this review, we first discuss the reasons why the coexistence of ferroelectricity/polarity and conductivity have been deemed incompatible, followed by a review on the history of ferroelectric/polar metals. Secondly, we review the important milestones along with the corresponding mechanisms for the ferroelectric/polar metallic phases in these materials. Thirdly, we summarize the design approaches for ferroelectric/polar metals. Finally, we discuss the future prospects and potential applications of ferroelectric/polar metals., Comment: Progress Review, 38 pages, 9 figures

Integrating multiple properties in a single system is crucial for the continuous developments in electronic devices. However, some physical properties are mutually exclusive in nature. Here, we report the coexistence of two seemingly mutually exclusive properties-polarity and two-dimensional conductivity-in ferroelectric Ba$_{0.2}$Sr$_{0.8}$TiO$_3$ thin films at the LaAlO$_3$/Ba$_{0.2}$Sr$_{0.8}$TiO$_3$ interface at room temperature. The polarity of a ~3.2 nm Ba$_{0.2}$Sr$_{0.8}$TiO$_3$ thin film is preserved with a two-dimensional mobile carrier density of ~0.05 electron per unit cell. We show that the electronic reconstruction resulting from the competition between the built-in electric field of LaAlO$_3$ and the polarization of Ba$_{0.2}$Sr$_{0.8}$TiO$_3$ is responsible for this unusual two-dimensional conducting polar phase. The general concept of exploiting mutually exclusive properties at oxide interfaces via electronic reconstruction may be applicable to other strongly-correlated oxide interfaces, thus opening windows to new functional nanoscale materials for applications in novel nanoelectronics., Comment: Main text: 25 pages, 4 figures Supplementary note: 19 pages, 11 figures

The novel coronavirus disease, named COVID-19, emerged in China in December 2019, and has rapidly spread around the world. It is clearly urgent to fight COVID-19 at global scale. The development of methods for identifying drug uses based on phenotypic data can improve the efficiency of drug development. However, there are still many difficulties in identifying drug applications based on cell picture data. This work reported one state-of-the-art machine learning method to identify drug uses based on the cell image features of 1024 drugs generated in the LINCS program. Because the multi-dimensional features of the image are affected by non-experimental factors, the characteristics of similar drugs vary greatly, and the current sample number is not enough to use deep learning and other methods are used for learning optimization. As a consequence, this study is based on the supervised ITML algorithm to convert the characteristics of drugs. The results show that the characteristics of ITML conversion are more conducive to the recognition of drug functions. The analysis of feature conversion shows that different features play important roles in identifying different drug functions. For the current COVID-19, Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine achieve antiviral effects by inhibiting endocytosis, etc., and were classified to the same community. And Clomiphene in the same community inibited the entry of Ebola Virus, indicated a similar MoAs that could be reflected by cell image., Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures. Cognitive Neurodynamics (2021)

Electrolyte gating is a powerful means for tuning the carrier density and exploring the resultant modulation of novel properties on solid surfaces. However, the mechanism, especially its effect on the oxygen migration and electrostatic charging at the oxide heterostructures, is still unclear. Here we explore the electrolyte gating on oxygen-deficient interfaces between SrTiO3 (STO) crystals and LaAlO3 (LAO) overlayer through the measurements of electrical transport, X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) and photoluminescence (PL) spectra. We found that oxygen vacancies (Ovac) were filled selectively and irreversibly after gating due to oxygen electromigration at the amorphous LAO/STO interface, resulting in a reconstruction of its interfacial band structure. Because of the filling of Ovac, the amorphous interface also showed an enhanced electron mobility and quantum oscillation of the conductance. Further, the filling effect could be controlled by the degree of the crystallinity of the LAO overlayer by varying the growth temperatures. Our results reveal the different effects induced by electrolyte gating, providing further clues to understand the mechanism of electrolyte gating on buried interfaces and also opening a new avenue for constructing high-mobility oxide interfaces., Comment: 5 figures; Supplementary materials included at the end of the main text

We investigate the probability distribution of order imbalance calculated from the order flow data of 43 Chinese stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Two definitions of order imbalance are considered based on the order number and the order size. We find that the order imbalance distributions of individual stocks have power-law tails. However, the tail index fluctuates remarkably from stock to stock. We also investigate the distributions of aggregated order imbalance of all stocks at different timescales $\Delta{t}$. We find no clear trend in the tail index with respect $\Delta{t}$. All the analyses suggest that the distributions of order imbalance are asymmetric.

This paper investigates the time-varying risk-premium relation of the Chinese stock markets within the framework of cross-sectional momentum and contrarian effects by adopting the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the French-Fama three factor model. The evolving arbitrage opportunities are also studied by quantifying the performance of time-varying cross-sectional momentum and contrarian effects in the Chinese stock markets. The relation between the contrarian profitability and market condition factors that could characterize the investment context is also investigated. The results reveal that the risk-premium relation varies over time, and the arbitrage opportunities based on the contrarian portfolios wax and wane over time. The performance of contrarian portfolios are highly dependent on several market conditions. The periods with upward trend of market state, higher market volatility and liquidity, lower macroeconomics uncertainty are related to higher contrarian profitability. These findings are consistent with the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis and have practical implications for market participants.

The quasi two-dimensional electron gas (q-2DEG) at oxide interfaces provides a platform for investigating quantum phenomena in strongly correlated electronic systems. Here, we study the transport properties at the high-mobility (La$_{0.3}$Sr$_{0.7}$)(Al$_{0.65}$Ta$_{0.35}$)O$_{0.3}$/SrTiO$_{0.3}$ (LSAT/STO) interface. Before oxygen annealing, the as-grown interface exhibits a high electron density and electron occupancy of two subbands: higher-mobility electrons ($\mu_1\approx{10^4}$ cm$^2$V$^{-1}$s$^{-1}$ at 2 K) occupy the lower-energy $3d_{xy}$ subband, while lower-mobility electrons ($\mu_1\approx{10^3}$ cm$^{2}$V$^{-1}$s$^{-1}$ at 2 K) propagate in the higher-energy $3d_{xz/yz}$-dominated subband. After removing oxygen vacancies by annealing in oxygen, only a single type of 3dxy electrons remain at the annealed interface, showing tunable Shubnikov-de Haas (SdH) oscillations below 9 T at 2 K and an effective mass of $0.7m_e$. By contrast, no oscillation is observed at the as-grown interface even when electron mobility is increased to $50,000$ cm$^{2}$V$^{-1}$s$^{-1}$ by gating voltage. Our results reveal the important roles of both carrier mobility and subband occupancy in tuning the quantum transport at oxide interfaces., Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures

The observation of magnetic interaction at the interface between nonmagnetic oxides has attracted much attention in recent years. In this report, we show that the Kondo-like scattering at the SrTiO3-based conducting interface is enhanced by increasing the lattice mismatch and growth oxygen pressure PO2. For the 26-unit-cell LaAlO3/SrTiO3 (LAO/STO) interface with lattice mismatch being 3.0%, the Kondo-like scattering is observed when PO2 is beyond 1 mTorr. By contrast, when the lattice mismatch is reduced to 1.0% at the (La0.3Sr0.7)(Al0.65Ta0.35)O3/SrTiO3 (LSAT/STO) interface, the metallic state is always preserved up to PO2 of 100 mTorr. The data from Hall measurement and X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy reveal that the larger amount of localized Ti3+ ions are formed at the LAO/STO interface compared to LSAT/STO. Those localized Ti3+ ions with unpaired electrons can be spin-polarized to scatter mobile electrons, responsible for the Kondo-like scattering observed at the LAO/STO interface., Comment: 25 pages, 5 figure

Since the discovery of two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) at the oxide interface of LaAlO3/SrTiO3, improving carrier mobility has become an important issue for device applications. In this paper, by using an alternate polar perovskite insulator (La0.3Sr0.7)(Al0.65Ta0.35)O3 (LSAT) for reducing lattice mismatch from 3.0% to 1.0%, the low-temperature carrier mobility has been increased 30 fold to 35,000 cm2V-1s-1. Moreover, two critical thicknesses for the LSAT/SrTiO3 (001) interface are found: one at 5 unit cell for appearance of the 2DEG, the other at 12 unit cell for a peak in the carrier mobility. By contrast, the conducting (110) and (111) LSAT/STO interfaces only show a single critical thickness of 8 unit cells. This can be explained in terms of polar fluctuation arising from LSAT chemical composition. In addition to lattice mismatch and crystal symmetry at the interface, polar fluctuation arising from composition has been identified as an important variable to be tailored at the oxide interfaces to optimise the 2DEG transport., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures

In order to model volatile real-world network behavior, we analyze phase-flipping dynamical scale-free network in which nodes and links fail and recover. We investigate how stochasticity in a parameter governing the recovery process affects phase-flipping dynamics, and find the probability that no more than q% of nodes and links fail. We derive higher moments of the fractions of active nodes and active links, $f_n(t)$ and $f_{\ell}(t)$, and define two estimators to quantify the level of risk in a network. We find hysteresis in the correlations of $f_n(t)$ due to failures at the node level, and derive conditional probabilities for phase-flipping in networks. We apply our model to economic and traffic networks., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures

We study trade-based manipulation of stock prices from the perspective of complex trading networks constructed by using detailed information of trades. A stock trading network consists of nodes and directed links, where every trader is a node and a link is formed from one trader to the other if the former sells shares to the latter. Specifically, three abnormal network motifs are investigated, which are found to be formed by a few traders, implying potential intention of price manipulation. We further investigate the dynamics of volatility, trading volume, average trade size and turnover around the transactions associated with the abnormal motifs for large, medium and small trades. It is found that these variables peak at the abnormal events and exhibit a power-law accumulation in the pre-event time period and a power-law relaxation in the post-event period. We also find that the cumulative excess returns are significantly positive after buyer-initiated suspicious trades and exhibit a mild price reversal after seller-initiated suspicious trades. These findings can be better understood in favor of price manipulation. Our work shed new lights into the detection of price manipulation resorting to the abnormal motifs of complex trading networks., Comment: 14 Latex pages including 5 figures and 2 tables, Submitted to QFL

We study the cross-correlation matrix $C_{ij}$ of inventory variations of the most active individual and institutional investors in an emerging market to understand the dynamics of inventory variations. We find that the distribution of cross-correlation coefficient $C_{ij}$ has a power-law form in the bulk followed by exponential tails and there are more positive coefficients than negative ones. In addition, it is more possible that two individuals or two institutions have stronger inventory variation correlation than one individual and one institution. We find that the largest and the second largest eigenvalues ($\lambda_1$ and $\lambda_2$) of the correlation matrix cannot be explained by the random matrix theory and the projection of inventory variations on the first eigenvector $u(\lambda_1)$ are linearly correlated with stock returns, where individual investors play a dominating role. The investors are classified into three categories based on the cross-correlation coefficients $C_{VR}$ between inventory variations and stock returns. Half individuals are reversing investors who exhibit evident buy and sell herding behaviors, while 6% individuals are trending investors. For institutions, only 10% and 8% investors are trending and reversing investors. A strong Granger causality is unveiled from stock returns to inventory variations, which means that a large proportion of individuals hold the reversing trading strategy and a small part of individuals hold the trending strategy. Comparing with the case of Spanish market, Chinese investors exhibit common and market-specific behaviors. Our empirical findings have scientific significance in the understanding of investors' trading behaviors and in the construction of agent-based models for stock markets., Comment: 10 REVTEX pages including 7 figures

Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval)., Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure

We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel the information hidden in the oil supply-demand data reported by two leading agencies, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). We suggest that the found increasing discrepancy between the EIA and IEA figures provides a measure of the estimation errors. Rather than a clear transition to a supply restricted regime, we interpret the discrepancy between the IEA and EIA as a signature of uncertainty, and there is no better fuel than uncertainty to promote speculation!, Comment: 4 pages; 4 figures, discussion of the oil supply-demand view point and uncertainties

The inverse structure functions of exit distances have been introduced as a novel diagnostic of turbulence which emphasizes the more laminar regions [1-4]. Using Taylor's frozen field hypothesis, we investigate the statistical properties of the exit distances of empirical 3D fully developed turbulence. We find that the probability density functions of exit distances at different velocity thresholds can be approximated by stretched exponentials with exponents varying with the velocity thresholds below a critical threshold. We show that the inverse structure functions exhibit clear extended self-similarity (ESS). The ESS exponents \xi(p,2) for small p (p<3.5) are well captured by the prediction of \xi(p,2)= p/2 obtained by assuming a universal distribution of the exit distances, while the observed deviations for large p's characterize the dependence of these distributions on the velocity thresholds. By applying a box-counting multifractal analysis of the natural measure constructed on the time series of exit distances, we demonstrate the existence of a genuine multifractality, endowed in addition with negative dimensions. Performing the same analysis of reshuffled time series with otherwise identical statistical properties for which multifractality is absent, we show that multifractality can be traced back to non-trivial dependence in the time series of exit times, suggesting a non-trivial organization of weakly-turbulent regions., Comment: 16 RevTex pages including 7 eps figures

Fractals and multifractals and their associated scaling laws provide a quantification of the complexity of a variety of scale invariant complex systems. Here, we focus on lattice multifractals which exhibit complex exponents associated with observable log-periodicity. We perform detailed numerical analyses of lattice multifractals and explain the origin of three different scaling regions found in the moments. A novel numerical approach is proposed to extract the log-frequencies. In the non-lattice case, there is no visible log-periodicity, {\em{i.e.}}, no preferred scaling ratio since the set of complex exponents spread irregularly within the complex plane. A non-lattice multifractal can be approximated by a sequence of lattice multifractals so that the sets of complex exponents of the lattice sequence converge to the set of complex exponents of the non-lattice one. An algorithm for the construction of the lattice sequence is proposed explicitly., Comment: 31 Elsart pages including 12 eps figures

We introduce a novel non-parametric methodology to test for the dynamical time evolution of the lag-lead structure between two arbitrary time series. The method consists in constructing a distance matrix based on the matching of all sample data pairs between the two time series. Then, the lag-lead structure is searched as the optimal path in the distance matrix landscape that minimizes the total mismatch between the two time series, and that obeys a one-to-one causal matching condition. To make the solution robust to the presence of large noise that may lead to spurious structures in the distance matrix landscape, we then generalize this optimal search by introducing a fuzzy search by sampling over all possible paths, each path being weighted according to a multinomial logit or equivalently Boltzmann factor proportional to the exponential of the global mismatch of this path. We present the efficient transfer matrix method that solves the problem and test it on simple synthetic examples to demonstrate its properties and usefulness compared with the standard running-time cross-correlation method. We then apply our `Optimal Thermal Causal Path'' method to the question of the causality between ......, Comment: 37 Elsevier pages including 13 eps figures

Our analysis of financial data, in terms of super-exponential growth, suggests that the seed of the 2002/03 crisis of the Dutch supermarket giant AHOLD was planted in 1996. It became quite visible in 1999 when the post-bubble destabilization regime was well-developed and acted as the precursor of an inevitable collapse fueled by raising expectations of investors to maintain strong herding pressures. We have adapted Weidlich's theory of opinion formation to describe the formation of buy or sell decisions among investors, based on a competition between the mechanisms of herding and of personal opinion opposing the herd. Among four typical patterns of stock price evolution, we have identified a ``critical zone'' in the model characterized by a strong sensitivity of the price trajectory on the herding and personal inclination parameters. The critical zone describes the maturation of a systemic instability forewarning of an inevitable crash. Classification and recognition of the spontaneous emergence of patterns of stock market evolution based on Weidlich's theory of complex systems, and in particular our discovery of the post-bubble destabilization regime which acts as a precursor to a subsequent crash or antibubble, not only presents the possibility of developing early warning signals but also suggests to top management ways of dealing with the coming crisis., Comment: 37 pages including 13 figures

The ``social brain hypothesis'' for the evolution of large brains in primates has led to evidence for the coevolution of neocortical size and social group sizes. Extrapolation of these findings to modern humans indicated that the equivalent group size for our species should be approximately 150 (essentially the number of people known personally as individuals). Here, we combine data on human grouping in a comprehensive and systematic study. Using fractal analysis, we identify with high statistical confidence a discrete hierarchy of group sizes with a preferred scaling ratio close to 3: rather than a single or a continuous spectrum of group sizes, humans spontaneously form groups of preferred sizes organized in a geometrical series approximating 3, 9, 27,... Such discrete scale invariance (DSI) could be related to that identified in signatures of herding behavior in financial markets and might reflect a hierarchical processing of social nearness by human brains., Comment: 14 Latex pages including 5 figures

Using the descriptive method of log-periodic power laws (LPPL) based on a theory of behavioral herding, we use a battery of parametric and non-parametric tests to demonstrate the existence of an antibubble in the yields with maturities larger than 1 year since October 2000. The concept of ``antibubble'' describes the existence of a specific LPPL pattern that is thought to reflect collective herding effects. From the dependence of the parameters of the LPPL formula as a function of yield maturities and using lagged cross-correlation calculations between the S&P 500 and bond yields, we find strong evidence for the following causality: Stock Market $\to$ Fed Reserve (Federal funds rate) $\to$ short-term yields $\to$ long-term yields (as well as a direct and instantaneous influence of the stock market on the long-term yields). Our interpretation is that the FRB is ``causally slaved'' to the stock market (at least for the studied period), because the later is (taken as) a proxy for the present and future health of the economy., Comment: 26 Elsevier Latex pages including 11 eps figures (color online)

We document a well-developed log-periodic power-law antibubble in China's stock market, which started in August 2001. We argue that the current stock market antibubble is sustained by a contemporary active unsustainable real-estate bubble in China. The characteristic parameters of the antibubble have exhibited remarkable stability over one year (Oct. 2002-Oct. 2003). Many tests, including predictability over different horizons and time periods, confirm the high significance of the antibubble detection. We predict that the Chinese stock market will stop its negative trend around the end of 2003 and start going up, appreciating by at least 25% in the following 6 months. Notwithstanding the immature nature of the Chinese equity market and the strong influence of government policy, we have found maybe even stronger imprints of herding than in other mature markets. This is maybe due indeed to the immaturity of the Chinese market which seems to attract short-term investors more interested in fast gains than in long-term investments, thus promoting speculative herding., Comment: 29 Elsevier Latex pages including 12 eps figures

Since August 2000, the stock market in the USA as well as most other western markets have depreciated almost in synchrony according to complex patterns of drops and local rebounds. In \cite{SZ02QF}, we have proposed to describe this phenomenon using the concept of a log-periodic power law (LPPL) antibubble, characterizing behavioral herding between investors leading to a competition between positive and negative feedbacks in the pricing process. A monthly prediction for the future evolution of the US S&P 500 index has been issued, monitored and updated in \cite{urlprediction}, which is still running. Here, we test the possible existence of a regime switching in the US S&P 500 antibubble. First, we find some evidence that the antibubble has exhibited a transition in log-periodicity described by a so-called second-order log-periodicity. Second, >..., Comment: 17 Elsevier Latex (elsart.sty) text pages + 3 tables + 17 eps figures

Previous analyses of a large ensemble of stock markets have demonstrated that a log-periodic power law (LPPL) behavior of the prices constitutes a qualifying signature of speculative bubbles that often land with a crash. We detect such a LPPL signature in the foreign capital inflow during the bubble on the US markets culminating in March 2000. We detect a weak synchronization and lag with the NASDAQ 100 LPPL pattern. We propose to rationalize these observations by the existence of positive feedback loops between market-appreciation / increased-spending / increased-deficit-of-balance-of-payment / larger-foreign-surplus / increased-foreign-capital-inflows and so on. Our analysis suggests that foreign capital inflow have been following rather than causing the bubble. We then combine a macroeconomic analysis of feedback processes occurring between the economy and the stock market with a technical analysis of more than two hundred years of the DJIA to investigate possible scenarios for the future, three years after the end of the bubble and deep into a bearish regime. We also detect a LPPL accelerating bubble on the EURO against the US dollar and the Japanese Yen. In sum, our analyses is in line with our previous work on the LPPL ``anti-bubble'' representing the bearish market that started in 2000., Comment: 41 Latex pages including 14 eps figures

In a recent comment (Johansen A 2003 An alternative view, Quant. Finance 3: C6-C7, cond-mat/0302141), Anders Johansen has criticized our methodology and has questioned several of our results published in [Sornette D and Zhou W-X 2002 The US 2000-2002 market descent: how much longer and deeper? Quant. Finance 2: 468-81, cond-mat/0209065] and in our two consequent preprints [cond-mat/0212010, physics/0301023]. In the present reply, we clarify the issues on (i) the analogy between rupture and crash, (ii) the Landau expansion, ``double cosine'' and Weierstrass-type solutions, (iii) the symmetry between bubbles and anti-bubbles and universality, (iv) the condition of criticality, (v) the meaning of ``bullish anti-bubbles'', (vi) the absolute value of t_c-t, (vii) the fractal log-periodic power law patterns, (viii) the similarity between the Nikkei index in 1990-2000 and the S&P500 in 2000-2002 and (ix) the present status of our prediction., Comment: 6 Latex pages, a shorter version will appear soon in Quantitative Finance

We present a systematic algorithm testing for the existence of collective self-organization in the behavior of agents in social systems, with a concrete empirical implementation on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJIA) over the 20th century and on Hong Kong Hang Seng composite index (HSI) since 1969. The algorithm combines ideas from critical phenomena, the impact of agents' expectation, multi-scale analysis and the mathematical method of pattern recognition of sparse data. Trained on the three major crashes in DJIA of the century, our algorithm exhibits a remarkable ability for generalization and detects in advance 8 other significant drops or changes of regimes. An application to HSI gives promising results as well. The results are robust with respect to the variations of the recognition algorithm. We quantify the prediction procedure with error diagrams., Comment: 28 Latex pages including 8 eps figures

In the aftermath of the burst of the ``new economy'' bubble in 2000, the Federal Reserve aggressively reduced short-term rates yields in less than two years from 6.5% to 1.25% in an attempt to coax forth a stronger recovery of the US economy. But, there is growing apprehension that this is creating a new bubble in real estate, as strong housing demand is fuelled by historically low mortgage rates. Are we going from Charybdis to Scylla? This question is all the more excruciating at a time when many other indicators suggest a significant deflationary risk. Using economic data, Federal Reserve Chairman A. Greenspan and Governor D.L. Kohn dismissed recently this possibility. Using the theory of critical phenomena resulting from positive feedbacks in markets, we confirm this view point for the US but find that mayhem may be in store for the UK: we unearth the unmistakable signatures (log-periodicity and power law super-exponential acceleration) of a strong unsustainable bubble there, which could burst before the end of the year 2003., Comment: Latex, 22 pages including 8 eps figures; A revised version accepted for publication in Physica A

We propose a straightforward extension of our previously proposed log-periodic power law model of the ``anti-bubble'' regime of the USA market since the summer of 2000, in terms of the renormalization group framework to model critical points. Using a previous work by Gluzman and Sornette (2002) on the classification of the class of Weierstrass-like functions, we show that the five crashes that occurred since August 2000 can be accurately modelled by this approach, in a fully consistent way with no additional parameters. Our theory suggests an overall consistent organization of the investors forming a collective network which interact to form the pessimistic bearish ``anti-bubble'' regime with intermittent acceleration of the positive feedbacks of pessimistic sentiment leading to these crashes. We develop retrospective predictions, that confirm the existence of significant arbitrage opportunities for a trader using our model. Finally, we offer a prediction for the unknown future of the US S&P500 index extending over 2003 and 2004, that refines the previous prediction of Sornette and Zhou (2002)., Comment: Latex document, 11 eps figures and 1 table

We present a novel analysis extending the recent work of Mizuno et al. [2002] on the hyperinflations of Germany (1920/1/1-1923/11/1), Hungary (1945/4/30-1946/7/15), Brazil (1969-1994), Israel (1969-1985), Nicaragua (1969-1991), Peru (1969-1990) and Bolivia (1969-1985). On the basis of a generalization of Cagan's model of inflation based on the mechanism of ``inflationary expectation'' or positive feedbacks between realized growth rate and people's expected growth rate, we find that hyperinflations can be characterized by a power law singularity culminating at a critical time $t_c$. Mizuno et al.'s double-exponential function can be seen as a discrete time-step approximation of our more general nonlinear ODE formulation of the price dynamics which exhibits a finite-time singular behavior. This extension of Cagan's model, which makes natural the appearance of a critical time $t_c$, has the advantage of providing a well-defined end of the clearly unsustainable hyperinflation regime. We find an excellent and reliable agreement between theory and data for Germany, Hungary, Peru and Bolivia. For Brazil, Israel and Nicaragua, the super-exponential growth seems to be already contaminated significantly by the existence of a cross-over to a stationary regime., Comment: Latex 21 pages including 2 tables and 7 eps figures

Following our previous investigation of the USA Standard and Poor index anti-bubble that started in August 2000, we analyze thirty eight world stock market indices and identify 21 anti-bubble. An ``anti-bubble'' is defined as a self-fulfilling decreasing price created by positive price-to-price feedbacks feeding overall pessimism and negative market sentiment further strengthened by inter-personal interactions. We mathematically characterize anti-bubbles by a power law decrease of the price (or of the logarithm of the price) as a function of time and by decelerating/expanding log-periodic oscillations. The majority of European and Western stock market indices as well as other stock indices exhibit practically the same log-periodic power law anti-bubble structure as found for the USA S&P500 index. These anti-bubbles are found to start approximately at the same time, August 2000, in all these markets. This shows a remarkable degree of synchronization worldwide. The descent of the worldwide stock markets since 2000 is thus an international event, suggesting the strengthening of globalization., Comment: Latex file, 17 pages + 8 tables + 39 eps figures

A remarkable similarity in the behavior of the US S&P500 index from 1996 to August 2002 and of the Japanese Nikkei index from 1985 to 1992 (11 years shift) is presented, with particular emphasis on the structure of the bearish phases. Extending a previous analysis of Johansen and Sornette [1999, 2000] on the Nikkei index ``anti-bubble'' based on a theory of cooperative herding and imitation working both in bullish as well as in bearish regimes, we demonstrate the existence of a clear signature of herding in the decay of the S&P500 index since August 2000 with high statistical significance, in the form of strong log-periodic components. We offer a detailed analysis of what could be the future evolution of the S&P500 index over the next two years, according to three versions of the theory: we expect an overall continuation of the bearish phase, punctuated by local rallies; we predict an overall increasing market until the end of the year 2002 or at the beginning of 2003 (first quarter); we predict a strong following descent (with maybe one or two severe up and downs in the middle) which stops during the first semester of 2004. After this strong minimum, the market is expected to recover. Beyond, our prediction horizon is made fuzzy by the possible effect of additional nonlinear collective effects and of a real departure from the anti-bubble regime. The similarities between the two stock market indices may reflect deeper similarities between the fundamentals of two economies which both went through over-valuation with strong speculative phases preceding the transition to bearish phases characterized by a surprising number of bad surprises (bad loans for Japan and accounting frauds for the US) sapping investors' confidence., Comment: 15 pages + 3 tables + 13 figures

We extend the analysis of [Zhou and Sornette, Physica D 165, 94-125, 2002] showing statistically significant log-periodic corrections to scaling in the moments of the energy dissipation rate in experiments at high Reynolds number ($\approx 2500$) of three-dimensional fully developed turbulence. First, we develop a simple variant of the canonical averaging method using a rephasing scheme between different samples based on pairwise correlations that confirms Zhou and Sornette's previous results. The second analysis uses a simpler local spectral approach and then performs averages over many local spectra. This yields stronger evidence of the existence of underlying log-periodic undulations, with the detection of more than 20 harmonics of a fundamental logarithmic frequency $f = 1.434 \pm 0.007$ corresponding to the preferred scaling ratio $\gamma = 2.008 \pm 0.006$., Comment: 9 RevTex4 papes including 8 eps figures