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The use of equity principles to review the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) is critical to facilitating more ambitious climate actions. However, disagreement over the equity principles persists. We instead treat emission reduction as a solely economic behavior motivated by avoiding future economic damage from climate change. Assuming no international cooperation, we provide a solely economic mitigation pathway to review national climate pledges until 2100. Using the value in 2030 to review the NDCs, we find that the NDCs of China, the USA, and the EU are 1.5, 1.4, and 0.9 respective GtCO2eq lower than their solely economic emission levels, whereas India commits 3.8 GtCO2eq more than its solely economic emission level. We also propose an equal-effort cooperation scenario toward 2°C where each country reduces emissions by 28% of their solely economic levels in 2030. Through exploration of the economic trade-offs, our results suggest that more ambitious NDCs are urgently needed.

Discussing the function of green credit policy (GCP), which has dual attributes of being both a “environmental regulation” and a “financial instrument”; is crucial for the process of industrial green transformation. However, there is limited theoretical and empirical evidence on the impact of GCP on green transformation of industry. This research fills this gap by exploring the comprehensive impacts and mechanisms of GCP on the energy intensity (EI) of industrial enterprises in China. Theoretically, the environmental and financial impacts of GCP are introduced into a unified analytical framework on the basis of the heterogeneous enterprise model. Empirically, diverse empirical methods, such as difference-in-differences (DID), difference-in-differences-in-differences (DDD), and mediating effect models, are adopted to examine whether GCP can promote green innovation or accelerate financial constraint. The overall result shows that: (1) GCP has significantly decreased the EI of industrial enterprises. The impact of incentives was far greater than that of constraints. (2) In the incentive effect, energy substitution and innovation offsets exerted a primary influence on reducing the EI of industrial enterprises. (3) The constraint effect was primarily caused by rising financing and pollution abatement costs. This study offers a playbook for policymakers in China and other emerging economies to design effective policies for promoting industrial green transformation and sustainable production.

China has produced roughly half of the world’s steel in recent years, but the country’s iron and steel industry is a major source of air pollutants, especially particulate matter, SO2 and NOx emissions. To reduce such emissions, China imposed new emission standards in 2015 and promoted ultralow emission standards in 2019. Here we use measurements from China’s continuous emissions monitoring systems (covering 69–91% of national iron and steel production) to develop hourly, facility-level emissions estimates for China’s iron and steel industry. In turn, we use this data to evaluate the emission reductions related to China’s increasingly stringent policies. We find steady declines in emission concentrations at iron- and steelmaking plants since the 2015 standards were implemented. From 2014 to 2018, particulate matter and SO2 emissions fell by 47% and 42%, respectively, and NOx increased by 3%, even as the production increased by 14%. Moreover, we estimate that if all facilities achieve the ultralow emission standards, particulate matter, SO2 and NOx emissions will drop by a further 50%, 37% and 58%, respectively. Our results thus reveal the substantial benefits of the Chinese government’s interventions to curb emissions from iron and steel production and emphasize the promise of ongoing ultralow emission renovations. The Chinese government’s interventions to curb emissions from iron and steel production have not been evaluated. This study develops hourly, facility-level emissions estimates to assess the effects of strengthened emissions standards on pollution from China’s iron and steel industry.

With a decrease in tariffs around the world, antidumping duties, as an important part of temporary trade barriers, have increased dramatically to take their place. China and the United States (US) are the two heaviest targets and users of antidumping investigations respectively. In this paper, using Chinese annual transaction-level export data from 2000 to 2017, we study the trade destruction effect and the trade deflection effect of all antidumping investigations initiated by the US against China. We find strong evidence of both destruction and deflection effects. American antidumping actions reduce China's exports to the US, while increasing exports to non-US countries. Critically, the trade destruction and deflection effects are long-lived, and industry indicators (including industry employment, industry concentration and capital intensity) play significant roles in deflecting trade. In general, the impact of antidumping actions could be greater than what the direct effect alone might suggest.

Summary Background The health impacts of ambient air pollution impose large costs on society. Although all people are exposed to air pollution, the older population (ie, those aged ≥60 years) tends to be disproportionally affected. As a result, there is growing concern about the health impacts of air pollution as many countries undergo rapid population ageing. We investigated the spatial and temporal variation in the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient air pollution and its interaction with population ageing from 2000 to 2016 at global and regional levels. Methods In this global analysis, we developed an age-adjusted measure of the value of a statistical life-year (VSLY) to estimate the economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution using Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 data and country-level socioeconomic information. First, we estimated the global age-specific and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) attributable to PM2·5 pollution using the global exposure mortality model and global estimates of exposure at 0·1° × 0·1° (about 11 km × 11 km at the equator) resolution. Second, for each year between 2000 and 2016, we translated the YLLs within each age group into a health-related cost using a country-specific, age-adjusted measure of VSLY. Third, we decomposed the major driving factors that contributed to the temporal change in health costs related to PM2·5. Finally, we did a sensitivity test to analyse the variability of the estimated health costs to four alternative valuation measures. We identified the uncertainty intervals (UIs) from 1000 draws of the parameters and concentration–response functions by age, cause, country, and year. All economic values are reported in 2011 purchasing power parity-adjusted US dollars. All simulations were done with R, version 3.6.0. Findings Globally, in 2016, PM2·5 was estimated to have caused 8·42 million (95% UI 6·50–10·52) attributable deaths, which was associated with 163·68 million (116·03–219·44) YLLs. In 2016, the global economic cost of deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution for the older population was US$2·40 trillion (1·89–2·93) accounting for 59% (59–60) of the cost for the total population ($4·09 trillion [3·19–5·05]). The economic cost per capita for the older population was $2739 (2160–3345) in 2016, which was 10 times that of the younger population (ie, those aged Interpretation The economic cost of ambient PM2·5 borne by the older population almost doubled between 2000 and 2016, driven primarily by GDP growth, population ageing, and population growth. Compared with younger people, air pollution leads to disproportionately higher health costs among older people, even after accounting for their relatively shorter life expectancy and increased disability. As the world's population is ageing, the disproportionate health cost attributable to ambient PM2·5 pollution potentially widens the health inequities for older people. Countries with severe air pollution and rapid ageing rates need to take immediate actions to improve air quality. In addition, strategies aimed at enhancing health-care services, especially targeting the older population, could be beneficial for reducing the health costs of ambient air pollution. Funding National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation, and Qiushi Foundation.

The CEAC database that supports the findings of Plant-level real-time monitoring data reveals substantial abatement potential of air pollution and CO2 in China's cement sector

Supplemental data for ultralow emissions standards and carbon neutrality target enables >30% decline of air pollutants and CO2 in China’s cement plants

Supplemental data for ultralow emissions standards and carbon neutrality target enables >30% decline of air pollutants and CO2 in China’s cement plants

A resilient transport network, which is significant for urban sustainability and security, is characterized by its ability to recover from disruptions subject to natural and man-made disasters. Bike sharing could act as a viable alternative in the case of public transit disruptions given its flexibility and various social, environmental, and economic benefits. This study aims to estimate quantitatively the potential of bike sharing to promote transport resilience, by using autoregressive negative binomial time series model to investigate the effects of public transit closures on bike sharing demand in Washington, D.C. area during 2015–2017. We find that (1) bike sharing can act as a supplementary mode to enhance urban transport resilience in the case of complete transit closure; (2) the proximity of bike sharing docks to metro stations has a powerful effect on propensity to use a bike sharing program; and (3) extreme weather is one of major barriers to bicycling. Planners can enhance resilience of urban transport networks by fully considering the capacity and usage of bike sharing docks, as well as the coherence of metro stations and bike sharing docks, in distributing and rebalancing activities.

Executive summary. The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global energy and cost-of-living crises. As these crises unfold, climate change escalates unabated. Its worsening impacts are increasingly affecting the foundations of human health and wellbeing, exacerbating the vulnerability of the world's populations to concurrent health threats...

Analyzing the impact of climate change on China’s hydropower system can make great contribution to understanding the feedback mechanism of the climate change on energy system. In this work, an econometric model for regional hydropower generation is constructed to explore the impact of climate factors on hydropower generation in different regions of China by using the monthly panel data of 28 provinces in China. Further, we also make a prediction for the changes of hydropower generation in China caused by the changes of climatic factors under the three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) proposed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fifth assessment report. The results show that: (1) At the national level, the influences of climatic factors on hydropower generation are significant, the elasticity coefficients of rainfall, heating degree day (HDD), cooling degree day (CDD) and sunshine duration are 0.081, −0.016, 0.089 and −0.043 respectively. (2) The impacts of climatic factors on the hydropower generation in the northern and southern regions of China are different. The effect of rainfall on the hydropower generation is significant in the southern regions, but not in the northern region. The CDD has a significant effect on both the northern and southern regions, and the latter is greater (0.136%). The impact of HDD on the northern area is significant, while its influence on the southern area is not significant. The influence of sunshine duration is not significant in any region in China. (3) Compared with the year of 2011, the total changes of hydropower output caused by climate factors by 2100 under the RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios are 153.29 billion kWh, 67.49 billion kWh and 22.10 billion kWh, respectively. The results imply that the hydropower is sensitive and vulnerable to climate fluctuation, leading to many uncertainties for its development in the future. Finally, some policy implications are proposed for the planning of hydropower in China.

In order to combat environmental pollution, China enacted the Environmental Protection Tax Law in early 2018. Yet the impacts of the environmental tax on individual regions with different socioeconomic statuses, which are crucial for social justice and public acceptance, remain unclear. Based on a Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) Table and a nationally regulated tax payment calculation method, this study analyzes the distributional impacts of the environmental tax due to each province’s consumption from both inter-provincial and rural-urban aspects. The national tax revenue based on the current levy mechanism is estimated to be only one seventh of the economic loss from premature mortality caused by ambient particulate matter (PM2.5). The taxation may slightly alleviate urban-rural inequality but may not be helpful with reducing inter-provincial inequality. We further analyze two alternative levy mechanisms. If each province imposes taxes to products it consumes (rather than produces, as in the current mechanism), with the tax rate linearly dependent on its per capita consumption expenditure, this would moderately increase the national tax revenue and effectively reduce inter-provincial inequality. To better compensate for the economic cost of air pollution and reduce regional inequality, it would be beneficial to increase the tax rate nationwide and implement a levy mechanism based on provincially differentiated levels of consumption and economic status.

In 2014, China introduced an ultra-low emissions (ULE) standards policy for renovating coal-fired power-generating units to limit SO2, NOx and particulate matter (PM) emissions to 35, 50 and 10 mg m−3, respectively. The ULE standard policy had ambitious levels (surpassing those of all other countries) and implementation timeline. We estimate emission reductions associated with the ULE policy by constructing a nationwide, unit-level, hourly-frequency emissions dataset using data from a continuous emissions monitoring systems network covering 96–98% of Chinese thermal power capacity during 2014–2017. We find that between 2014 and 2017 China’s annual power emissions of SO2, NOx and PM dropped by 65%, 60% and 72%, respectively. Our estimated emissions using actual monitoring data are 18–92% below other recent estimates. We detail the technologies used to meet the ULE standards and the determinants of compliance, underscoring the importance of ex post evaluation and providing insights for other countries wishing to reduce their power emissions. In 2014 China proposed an ultra-low emissions policy for coal-fired power plants to reduce emissions. Using comprehensive nationwide stack emissions monitoring data, Tang et al. show reductions in excess of 60% for SO2, NOx and particulate matter emissions since 2014, even as power generation overall increased.

China's high‐speed economic development and reliance on overconsumption of natural resources have led to serious environmental pollution. Environmental taxation is seen as an effective economic tool to help mitigate air pollution. In order to assess the effects of different scenarios of environmental taxation policies, we propose a frontier‐based environmentally extended input–output optimization model with explicit emission abatement sectors to reflect the inputs and benefits of abatement. Frontier analysis ensures policy scenarios are assessed under the same technical efficiency benchmark, while input–output analysis depicts the wide range of economic transactions among sectors of an economy. Four scenarios are considered in this study, which are increasing specific tax rates of SO2, NOx, and soot and dust separately and increasing all three tax rates simultaneously. Our estimation results show that: raising tax rates of SO2, NOx, and soot and dust simultaneously would have the highest emission reduction effects, with the SO2 tax rate making the greatest contribution to emission reduction. Raising the soot and dust tax rate is the most environmentally friendly strategy due to its highest abatement to welfare through avoided health costs. The combination of frontier analysis and input–output analysis provides policy makers a comprehensive and sectoral approach to assess costs and benefits of environmental taxation.

Summary Fine-particulate-matter pollution (PM2.5) is linked to millions of deaths annually. Consumption in one region can cause production and PM2.5 emissions in another, but the socioeconomic drivers of transboundary PM2.5 emissions are not fully understood. Here, we quantify the driving factors of primary-particle and oxidized-precursor emissions from 2004 to 2011 at global and regional scales. The results indicate that the growth rate of global PM2.5 emissions slowed from 2004 to 2011, mainly due to improvements in energy intensities and production efficiency. Improvements in the emission intensity of coal represent the main factor offsetting SO2 and NOx emissions, whereas emission controls implemented for industrial processes have largely contributed to reducing primary PM2.5 emissions. The net emissions embodied in East Asia's exports to developed countries declined, while that to developing countries increased rapidly. The analysis creates opportunities to involve both producers and consumers in co-mitigation of various pollutants.

The importance of good performance in the logistics industry contributing towards a low-carbon economy is widely recognised. However, there are few studies on carbon emissions performance for the logistics industry, especially at the city level. Therefore, this study attempts to analyse the carbon emissions performance of the logistics industry at the city level by examining sixteen cities within Yunnan Province. In particular, the Data envelopment analysis (DEA) model and Malmquist index from both the static and dynamic perspective were explored. To further capture the driving factors of the carbon emissions performance in logistics, the Tobit model was applied to perform regression analysis. The results indicate that (1) with regards to static performance, two northwest cities, Nujiang and Diqing, have reached the technological frontier; (2) regarding dynamic performance, although six cities have improved, the average dynamic logistics carbon emissions performance of all the cities decreases by approximately 5.9% from 2011 to 2015; (3) in terms of driving factors, the economic development factor is found to be positively and significantly related to static carbon emissions performance, whereas others indicate negative and significant relationships.

In the PM2.5 control of Jing-jin-ji region, the emission reduction target is the decrease of concentration which is different from greenhouse gases control. We constructed a game model of PM2.5 (all particulate matter that has an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm) that is based on the transmission and retention of PM2.5 and that accounts for the direct costs, economic development effects and health benefits of the control of PM2.5. In addition, we conceived a new method to allocate the benefits of cooperative efforts based on changes in welfare. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China was studied as an example for this model. The results show that cooperation is an effective strategy for PM2.5 control in this region in 2015. The aggregate indirect cost was 30.87% lower in the cooperative case than the non-cooperative case. Cooperation increases the health benefits and economic effects by 2.3 billion Yuan. The most negative effects of economic development come from manufacturing and industry, and the health benefits of free rider are small based on transmission matrix. Compared with Hebei which owes the lowest cost, Beijing and Tianjin are more suitable to undertake more PM2.5 control tasks in the cooperation because of their special transmission matrix and regional center location. Our research reveals the importance of transmission matrix in the control of air pollutants, the characteristics of PM2.5 control and give policy implications based on our empirical study and game model.

One of the aspects of climate change is temperature rise. Temperature rise or fluctuations affect human economic activities and electricity consumption. This paper estimates the changes in electricity consumption due to temperature fluctuation at the county scale in rural China. By using the statistics of counties from 2006 to 2015 in a fixed-effect panel model, the results indicate that a one-degree temperature increase in summer days may lead to 0.015% more electricity consumption per capita, and this correlation may be weaker as income increases. Moreover, a one-degree temperature decrease in winter days may lead to 0.002% more electricity consumption. The northern region may consume 0.021% more electricity than the southern region when facing the same temperature drop. Overall, the effect of temperature on electricity consumption is modest, particularly for a drop in temperature, but the usage of other types of energy may increase to adapt to the cold.

Urbanization, industrialization and their associated water shortage pressures have brought great challenges to agricultural development and water security. Understanding the virtual water flow involved in the grain trade is critical to ensuring water security and agricultural production. However, there are few studies on the comprehensive benefits provided by virtual water flow in the grain trade. This paper proposes a linear optimization model to fill this gap. The model is used to estimate the virtual water flow via interregional grain trade within China in 2015 and corresponding benefits to resources, the economy, and the environment from both outflow and inflow comparative perspectives. Three results characterize the virtual water flow pattern of interprovincial grain trade in China in 2015: (1) In terms of resource benefit, 31. billion cubic meters of water resources were saved, accounting for approximately 39.7% of the total virtual water flow. (2) A positive economic benefit was realized, with an increase of 6.4 trillion yuan in industrial value added. (3) Certain regions with a high crop green water occupation index account for a considerable proportion of the green water of the local agricultural ecosystem. Simultaneously, massive output of virtual water would aggravate the destruction of terrestrial ecosystems. Finally, the results suggest that promoting the marketization of water resources, improving water productivity, exploring regional compensation mechanisms and improving green water conservation capacity should be considered for water security policies.