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Laboratory experiments are one of the important means used to investigate travel choice behavior under strategic uncertainty. Many experiment-based studies have shown that the Nash equilibrium can predict aggregated route choices, while the fluctuations, whose mechanisms are still unclear, continue to exist until the end. To understand the fluctuations, this paper proposes a route-dependent attraction-based stochastic process model, which shares exactly the same behavioral foundation introduced in Part I of the study (Qi et al., 2023), i.e., route-dependent inertia and route-dependent preference. The model predictions are carefully compared with the experimental observations obtained from the congestible parallel-route laboratory experiments containing 312 subjects and eight decision-making scenarios (Qi et al., 2023). The results show that the proposed stochastic process model can precisely reproduce the random oscillations both in terms of flow switching and route flow evolution. Subsequently, an approximated model is developed to enhance the efficiency in evaluating the equilibrium distribution, providing a practical tool to evaluate the impacts of transportation policies in both long- and short-term runs. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to model and explain experimental phenomena by introducing stochastic process theories, as well as a successful example of applying experimental economics methodology to improve our understanding of human travel choice behavior.

Measuring the interaction between cities is an important research topic in many disciplines, such as sociology, geography, economics, and transportation science. The traditional and most widely used spatial interaction model is the gravity model, but it requires the parameters to be artificially set. In this paper, we propose a parameter-free interactive city choice (ICC) model that measures intercity interaction from the perspective of individual choice behavior. The ICC model assumes that the probability of an individual choosing to interact with a city is proportional to the number of opportunities in the destination city and inversely proportional to the number of intervening opportunities between the origin city and the destination city, calculated using the travel time in the transportation network. The intercity interaction intensity can be obtained by calculating the product of this probability and the origin city’s population. We apply the ICC model to measure the interaction intensity among 339 cities in China and analyze the impact of changes in the Chinese land transportation network from 2005 to 2018 on the intercity and city interaction intensity. The results show that our model provides an alternative method for measuring the intercity interaction.

An input vector composed of various features plays an important role in short-term traffic forecasting. However, there is limited research on the optimal feature selection of an input vector for a certain forecasting task. To fill the gap, this paper proposes a cohesion-based heuristic feature selection method by analyzing the nature of the forecasting methods. This method is able to determine which features should be contained in an input vector to make a forecasting algorithm perform better. The proposed method is demonstrated in two experiments based on the empirical traffic flow data. The results show that the method is able to improve the performances of the short-term traffic forecasting algorithms. It is then suggested to consider the proposed method as a preprocessing procedure in practical forecasting applications.

This paper proposes a new traffic assignment model, named an N-path logit-based stochastic user equilibrium (NPSUE), which considers not only road users' perceptual errors in path choices, but also users' heterogeneity that allows the numbers of the limited path sets for each user to be different. The property of the N-path user equilibrium (NPUE) proposed in Dung-Ying Lin (2014) is first reanalyzed, and then the optimization program for the NPSUE models as well as the property of the optimal solution are explicitly discussed. For each type of users, the NPSUE assignment results are consistent with the logit-assignment results in their limited path set. Both the NPUE and NPSUE models are tested in three road networks: an simple grid network, Nguyen and Dupuis' network and Sioux Falls network. The numerical results show that (1) the NPUE can be equivalent to the UE under certain conditions, although the users don't have full information on the available paths; (2) the proposed NPSUE may provide an ideal equilibrium state for both system managers and road users; (3) the provision of appropriate path guidance information is beneficial to both system managers and road users; otherwise, the provision of excessive information may decrease the performance of the road network, and (4) under the NPSUE conditions, the provision of excessive information may decrease users' satisfaction.

Taxi is an indispensable mode in the urban public transportation. Although many studies have explored the travel patterns of taxi trips, few have combined taxi and subway to reveal their intermodal relationship. To bridge the gap, this study utilized taxi’s trajectory data to investigate its relationship with subway. Considering the multifaceted relationship between taxi and subway in operation, taxi trips are categorized into three types, namely, subway-competing, subway-extending, and subway-complementing taxi trips. The characteristics of each type of taxi trips reflect the specialties and their interactions with subway. The origin/destination distributions of taxi and subway trips are compared and analyzed. Furthermore, the supply and demand of taxi within the buffer zone of each subway station are analyzed to reflect the difficulty of hailing taxis. The negative binomial regression models are used to explore the relationship between taxi trips and subway ridership. The results show that there is a significantly positive correlation between taxi trips and subway ridership.

This paper suggests a probability-dominant user equilibrium (PdUE) model to describe the selfish routing equilibrium in a stochastic traffic network. At PdUE, travel demands are only assigned to the most dominant routes in the same origin-destination pair. A probability-dominant rerouting dynamic model is proposed to explain the behavioral mechanism of PdUE. To facilitate applications, the logit formula of PdUE is developed, of which a well-designed route set is not indispensable and the equivalent varitional inequality formation is simple. Two routing strategies, i.e., the probability-dominant strategy (PDS) and the dominant probability strategy (DPS), are discussed through a hypothetical experiment. It is found that, whether out of insurance or striving for perfection, PDS is a better choice than DPS. For more general cases, the conducted numerical tests lead to the same conclusion. These imply that PdUE (rather than the conventional stochastic user equilibrium) is a desirable selfish routing equilibrium for a stochastic network, given that the probability distributions of travel time are available to travelers.

This paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based method that learns traffic as images and predicts large-scale, network-wide traffic speed with a high accuracy. Spatiotemporal traffic dynamics are converted to images describing the time and space relations of traffic flow via a two-dimensional time-space matrix. A CNN is applied to the image following two consecutive steps: abstract traffic feature extraction and network-wide traffic speed prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by taking two real-world transportation networks, the second ring road and north-east transportation network in Beijing, as examples, and comparing the method with four prevailing algorithms, namely, ordinary least squares, k-nearest neighbors, artificial neural network, and random forest, and three deep learning architectures, namely, stacked autoencoder, recurrent neural network, and long-short-term memory network. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms by an average accuracy improvement of 42.91% within an acceptable execution time. The CNN can train the model in a reasonable time and, thus, is suitable for large-scale transportation networks.