1. Risk Factors and Predictive Model of Long-term Bedridden Risk of Falls in Super-aged Population Based on Competing Risk Model Analysis
- Author
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XU Yunjia, SHU Biyun, ZHENG Yongtao, CHEN Ting, LAI Fenhua, NI Mengjiao, LUO Xiulan, WU Hengjing
- Subjects
aged, 80 and over ,falls ,long-term bedridden ,risk factors ,nomograms ,cohort studies ,competing risk models ,Medicine - Abstract
Background With the aging trend intensifying in China, the number of super-aged population (≥80 years old) is also increasing. This demographic faces a notable decline in balance and reaction capabilities, resulting in an elevated risk of falls than that of other age groups of the elderly. Falls leading to long-term bedridden risk of falls often pose a serious disease burden to families and society. Exploring the potential risk factors for falls in the super-aged people may provide reference for the fall prevention in this population. Objective To identify long-term bedridden risk of falls in super-aged population and develop a risk predictive model. Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted to collect relevant information based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study questionnaire among the super-aged people who regularly participate in annual physical examination in five districts and counties of Shanghai and Hangzhou from March to November 2015, and to follow up and observe long-term bedridden caused by falls (endpoint events) and death (competing events), a competing risk model was constructed to analyze the influencing factors of long-term bedridden caused by falls. Independent risk factors identified by the competing risk model were used to construct a risk predictive model and nomogram of long-term bedridden risk of falls in super-aged population, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the accuracy of the model. Results A total of 986 super-aged individuals were included in this study, including 431 (43.7%) males and 555 (56.3%) females, with an average age of (89.8±5.2) years. After 8 years of follow-up, 96 people were lost to follow-up, with a loss rate of 9.7%; endpoint events occurred in 165 people with an incidence rate of 16.7%; 134 people had competing events, with an incidence rate of 13.6%. Competing risk model analysis showed an increase in muscle strength (HR=1.071, 95%CI=1.049-1.091), age>85 years (HR=1.954, 95%CI=1.255-3.042), rural household location (HR=1.946, 95%CI=1.385-2.731), poor sleep quality (HR=5.756, 95%CI=3.904-8.491), cataract (HR=1.832, 95%CI=1.201-2.794), diabetes (HR=1.549, 95%CI=1.121-2.143), cognitive impairment (HR=1.717, 95%CI=1.258-2.344) were independent risk factors for long-term bedridden caused by falls in elderly population under the influence of competing events, and the difference was statistically significant (P
- Published
- 2024
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