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Previous studies have shown that underground natural gas storage (UGS) in California has served a critical role in meeting energy demands in California, and there is no immediate alternative. Therefore, it is important to ensure the safety of UGS infrastructure, especially considering that many of the UGS sites are using a combination of new and old wells, some of which were installed decades ago and re-purposed for UGS. The purpose of this project is to develop an integrated risk management and decision support system (IRMDSS) to manage risks associated with this heterogeneous subsurface infrastructure. The approach of the IRMDSS is to take advantage of the predictive capability of mechanistic models, with support from data acquired from advanced monitoring technologies, for evaluation and analysis of various incident scenarios or potential threats. In this project, we have demonstrated data collection by four advanced monitoring technologies. These include two downhole monitoring technologies, distributed temperature sensing (DTS), distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), and two surface monitoring technologies, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). DTS and DAS data are collected continuously, providing information related to individual wells. InSAR data are collected frequently (~every 24 days), and UAV data can be collected as frequently as is practical depending on need. Together, these subsurface and surface monitoring technologies provide near real-time information useful for risk management of UGS facilities.

At a geologic CO2 sequestration (GCS) site, geologic uncertainty usually leads to large uncertainty in the predictions of properties that influence metrics for leakage risk assessment, such as CO2 saturations and pressures in potentially leaky wellbores, CO2/brine leakage rates, and leakage consequences such as changes in drinking water quality in groundwater aquifers. The large uncertainty in these risk-related system properties and risk metrics can lead to over-conservative risk management decisions to ensure safe operations of GCS sites. The objective of this work is to develop a novel approach based on dynamic risk assessment to effectively reduce the uncertainty in the predicted risk-related system properties and risk metrics. We demonstrate our framework for dynamic risk assessment on two case studies: a 3D synthetic example and a synthetic field example based on the Rock Springs Uplift (RSU) storage site in Wyoming, USA. Results show that the U.S. National Risk Assessment Partnership's Open Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) coupled with a conformance evaluation can be used to effectively quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the predictions of risk-related system properties and risk metrics in GCS.

Growing interest in offshore geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) motivates risk assessment of large-scale subsea CO2 well blowouts or pipeline ruptures. For major leaks of CO2 from wells or pipelines, significant fluxes of CO2 may occur from the sea surface depending on water depth. In the context of risk assessment of human health and safety, we have used previously simulated coupled well-reservoir and water column model results as a source term for dense gas dispersion of CO2 above the sea surface. The models are linked together by one-way coupling, that is, output of one model is used as input to the next model. These first-of-their-kind coupled flow results are applicable to assessing the hazard of CO2 to people at and downwind of the sea surface location of emission. Hazard is quantified by plotting the downwind dispersion length (DDL), which we define in the study as the distances from the emission source to the point at which the emitted CO2 has been diluted to 5% and 1.5% in air by volume. Results suggest that large-scale blowouts in shallow water (10 m) may cause hazardous CO2 plumes extending on the order of several hundred meters downwind. Details of the modeling show DDL has a maximum for windspeed (at an elevation of 10 m) of approximately 5 m/s, with smaller DDL for both weaker and stronger winds. This is explained by the fact that wind favors transport but also causes dispersion; therefore there is a certain wind speed that maximizes DDL. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

It is crucial to ensure the safety and integrity of underground gas storage (UGS) infrastructure for energy reliability in California, and many other places around the world. To address the risk management need in UGS industry, we take advantage of recent advances in downhole fiber optic monitoring and coupled well-reservoir simulation to provide unprecedented understanding of gas flow in wells at UGS sites. We have combined advanced monitoring and simulation of UGS operations into a decision-support system called the Integrated Risk Management and Decision Support System (IRMDSS). The IRMDSS framework includes three components: (i) mechanistic models, (ii) continuous and frequent monitoring data, and (iii) a supervisory interface for performing analyses using the models and monitoring data. The goal of the IRMDSS is to equip UGS operators with real-time monitoring data and simulation tools that can alert them to potential failures, detect early leakage, and support mitigation decision-making to prevent otherwise larger failures. We demonstrate an application of the IRMDSS by analyzing the temperature and pressure response to a hypothetical leak. Through a review of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data collected at an operating UGS facility we show that DTS can uniquely and precisely identify the depth of the gas-water-contact in the well annulus, and that DTS can provide an early warning signal of upward gas flow as would occur in a well blowout scenario. When combined with modeling analysis, a rough leak rate can be roughly estimated to understand the severity of the leakage conditions and to support the mitigation decision needed.

Estimates of line-of-sight (LOS) displacements from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations serve as the basis of the long-term monitoring of an operating natural gas storage site at Honor Rancho in California. An inversion algorithm is used to estimate the portion of the signal that is attributable to deformation within the gas storage reservoir, located at a depth of around 3 km. Removing this contribution produces residuals that are used to characterize the background variation is surface deformation at the gas storage facility and to determine a threshold that can signify unusually large residuals. An application to almost 7 yr of InSAR data, from 2011 until 2018, indicates that there are intervals of heightened residuals as well as brief episodes of anomalously large misfits. An examination of the spatial distributions of the individual residual LOS displacements indicates larger displacements in an alluvial valley just south of the reservoir, with rapid spatial variations in sign, indicating a rather shallow origin. Furthermore, the two anomalous events also involve rapid spatial variations in the LOS displacement residuals directly above the storage facility. The results demonstrate that the technique of extracting residuals after removing the reservoir signal is a useful approach, even in the case of this deep reservoir, and is a promising method for long-term monitoring.

Large volumes of water are used for hydraulic fracturing of low permeability shale reservoirs tostimulate gas production, with most of the water remaining unrecovered and distributed in a poorly understoodmanner within stimulated regions. Because water partitioning into shale pores controls gas release,we measured the water saturation dependence on relative humidity (rh) and capillary pressure (Pc) for imbibition(adsorption) as well as drainage (desorption) on samples of Woodford Shale. Experiments and modelingof water vapor adsorption into shale laminae at rh50.31 demonstrated that long times are needed tocharacterize equilibrium in larger (5 mm thick) pieces of shales, and yielded effective diffusion coefficientsfrom 9 3 1029 to 3 3 1028 m2 s21, similar in magnitude to the literature values for typical low porosity andlow permeability rocks. Most of the experiments, conducted at 508C on crushed shale grains in order tofacilitate rapid equilibration, showed significant saturation hysteresis, and that very large Pc ( 1 MPa) arerequired to drain the shales. These results quantify the severity of the water blocking problem, and suggestthat gas production from unconventional reservoirs is largely associated with stimulated regions that havehad little or no exposure to injected water. Gravity drainage of water from fractures residing above horizontalwells reconciles gas production in the presence of largely unrecovered injected water, and is discussedin the broader context of unsaturated flow in fractures.

To reduce the geothermal exploration risk, a feasibility study is performed for a deep direct-use (DDU) system proposed at the West Virginia University (WVU) Morgantown campus. This study applies numerical simulations to investigate reservoir impedance and thermal production. Because of the great depth of the geothermal reservoir, few data are available to characterize reservoir features and properties. As a result, the study focuses on the following three aspects: 1. model choice for predicting reservoir impedance and thermal breakthrough: after investigating three potential models (one single permeability model and two dual permeability models) for flow through fractured rock, it is decided only the single permeability model is needed; 2. well placement (horizontal vs. vertical) options: horizontal well placement seems to be more robust to heterogeneity and the impedance is more acceptable; 3. Prediction uncertainty: the most influential parameters are identified using a First-Order-Second-Moment uncertainty propagation analysis, and the uncertain range of the model predictions is estimated by performing a Monte Carlo simulation. Heterogeneity has a large impact on the prediction, therefore, heterogeneity is included in the predictive model and uncertainty analysis. The numerical model results and uncertainty analysis will be used for further economic studies.

In this study, we numerically investigate the influence of hysteretic stress path behavior on the seal integrity during underground gas storage operations in a depleted reservoir. Our study area is the Honor Rancho Underground Storage Facility in Los Angeles County (California, USA), which was converted into an underground gas storage facility in 1975 after 20 years of oil and gas production. In our simulations, the geomechanical behavior of the sand reservoir is modeled using two models: (1) a linear elastic model (non-hysteretic stress path) that does not take into consideration irreversible deformation, and (2) a plastic cap mechanical model which considers changes in rock elastic properties due to irreversible deformations caused by plastic reservoir compaction (hysteretic stress path). It shows that the irreversible compaction of the geological layer over geologic time and during the reservoir depletion can have important consequences on stress tensor orientation and magnitude. Ignoring depletion-induced irreversible compaction can lead to an over-estimation of the calculation of the maximum working reservoir pressure. Moreover, this irreversible compaction may bring the nearby faults closer to reactivation. However, regardless of the two models applied, the geomechanical analysis shows that for the estimated stress conditions applied in this study, the Honor Rancho Underground Storage Facility is being safely operated at pressures much below what would be required to compromise the seal integrity.

Accurate understanding and predicting the flow paths of immiscible two-phase flow in rocky porous structures are of critical importance for the evaluation of oil or gas recovery and prediction of rock slides caused by gas-liquid flow. A 2D phase field model was established for compressible air-water two-phase flow in heterogenous porous structures. The dynamic characteristics of air-water two-phase interface and preferential paths in porous structures were simulated. The factors affecting the path selection of two-phase flow in porous structures were analyzed. Transparent physical models of complex porous structures were prepared using 3D printing technology. Tracer dye was used to visually observe the flow characteristics and path selection in air-water two-phase displacement experiments. The experimental observations agree with the numerical results used to validate the accuracy of phase field model. The effects of channel thickness on the air-water two-phase flow behavior and paths in porous structures were also analyzed. The results indicate that thick channels can induce secondary air flow paths due to the increase in flow resistance; consequently, the flow distribution is different from that in narrow channels. This study provides a new reference for quantitatively analyzing multi-phase flow and predicting the preferential paths of immiscible fluids in porous structures.

Injecting supercritical CO2 into the subsurface changes the temperature, pressure, and geochemistry of the storage reservoir. Understanding these perturbations within the reservoir may be used to monitor the CO2 plume during a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) project. Here we analyze results from 1-D, 2-D, and 3-D numerical modeling studies to investigate how the thermal signature of the CO2-water system evolves during CCS. These models show that the thermodynamic processes of the CO2-water system results in a characteristic thermal profile within a homogeneous storage reservoir during a CO2 injection. This thermal signature is characterized by warming front of up to 4 °C, which is caused by CO2 dissolution and migrates contemporaneously with free-phase CO2 migration. When reservoir properties are highly heterogeneous, this thermal front travels well ahead of free-phase CO2, thus implying that thermal monitoring may be an effective predictor of CO2 breakthrough.

Salt precipitation can be generated near the injection well when dry supercritical CO2 (scCO2) is injected into deep saline aquifers. Traditional laboratory experiments and numerical simulations focus on the generation of salt precipitation and its impact on core permeability. Recent laboratory experimental studies have shown that the heterogeneity of the core and water content on the surface of the particles plays an important role in the formation of salt precipitation. The goal of this study is to investigate the effects of brine back-flow, heterogeneity, and low water content on salt precipitation. Numerical simulations were performed using core-scale and site-scale models. Simulation results showed the following: 1. Back-flow plays an important role in the salt accumulation near the well – an homogeneous laboratory experiment used with a small core may not provide a full picture of the back-flow phenomenon. 2. The continuous dry-out process reduces the water content near the injection well to zero. As a result, the full range of saturation flow equations should be used to simulate the dry-out process accurately. 3. The heterogeneity of the matrix not only affects the distribution of salt precipitation but also increases the amount of salt precipitation near the well. Homogeneous simulation underestimates the amount of salt precipitation. 4. The reduction in porosity due to salt precipitation could extend the dry-out process in the low permeability zone, further expanding the salt precipitation area. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.