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We present an advance towards accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over 2/3 of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by 5 in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60 degree longitudinal width, constant speed and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for 1 correct prediction, 2 to 3 false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 +/- 16.6 hours difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point., Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in the AGU journal "Space Weather" on 2017 July 1

We present an analysis of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 March 7, which was imaged by both STEREO spacecraft and observed in situ by MESSENGER, Venus Express, Wind and Mars Express. Based on detected arrivals at four different positions in interplanetary space, it was possible to strongly constrain the kinematics and the shape of the ejection. Using the white-light heliospheric imagery from STEREO-A and B, we derived two different kinematical profiles for the CME by applying the novel constrained self-similar expansion method. In addition, we used a drag-based model to investigate the influence of the ambient solar wind on the CME's propagation. We found that two preceding CMEs heading in different directions disturbed the overall shape of the CME and influenced its propagation behavior. While the Venus-directed segment underwent a gradual deceleration (from ~2700 km/s at 15 R_sun to ~1500 km/s at 154 R_sun), the Earth-directed part showed an abrupt retardation below 35 R_sun (from ~1700 to ~900 km/s). After that, it was propagating with a quasi-constant speed in the wake of a preceding event. Our results highlight the importance of studies concerning the unequal evolution of CMEs. Forecasting can only be improved if conditions in the solar wind are properly taken into account and if attention is also paid to large events preceding the one being studied.

We present multi-point in situ observations of a complex sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which may serve as a benchmark event for numerical and empirical space weather prediction models. On 2010 August 1, instruments on various space missions (Solar Dynamics Observatory/ Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar-TErrestrial-RElations-Observatory) monitored several CMEs originating within tens of degrees from solar disk center. We compare their imprints on four widely separated locations, spanning 120 degree in heliospheric longitude, with radial distances from the Sun ranging from MESSENGER (0.38 AU) to Venus Express (VEX, at 0.72 AU) to Wind, ACE and ARTEMIS near Earth, and STEREO-B close to 1 AU. Calculating shock and flux rope parameters at each location points to a non-spherical shape of the shock, and shows the global configuration of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which have interacted, but do not seem to have merged. VEX and STEREO-B observed similar magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), in contrast to structures at Wind. The geomagnetic storm was intense, reaching two minima in the Dst index (~ -100 nT), caused by the sheath region behind the shock and one of two observed MFRs. MESSENGER received a glancing blow of the ICMEs, and the events missed STEREO-A entirely. The observations demonstrate how sympathetic solar eruptions may immerse at least 1/3 of the heliosphere in the ecliptic with their distinct plasma and magnetic field signatures. We also emphasize the difficulties in linking the local views derived from single-spacecraft observations to a consistent global picture, pointing to possible alterations from the classical picture of ICMEs., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ

The propagation properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are crucial to predict its geomagnetic effect. A newly developed three dimensional (3D) mask fitting reconstruction method using coronagraph images from three viewpoints has been described and applied to the CME ejected on August 7, 2010. The CME's 3D localisation, real shape and morphological evolution are presented. Due to its interaction with the ambient solar wind, the morphology of this CME changed significantly in the early phase of evolution. Two hours after its initiation, it was expanding almost self-similarly. CME's 3D localisation is quite helpful to link remote sensing observations to in situ measurements. The investigated CME was propagating to Venus with its flank just touching STEREO B. Its corresponding ICME in the interplanetary space shows a possible signature of a magnetic cloud with a preceding shock in VEX observations, while from STEREO B only a shock is observed. We have calculated three principle axes for the reconstructed 3D CME cloud. The orientation of the major axis is in general consistent with the orientation of a filament (polarity inversion line) observed by SDO/AIA and SDO/HMI. The flux rope axis derived by the MVA analysis from VEX indicates a radial-directed axis orientation. It might be that locally only the leg of the flux rope passed through VEX. The height and speed profiles from the Sun to Venus are obtained. We find that the CME speed possibly had been adjusted to the speed of the ambient solar wind flow after leaving COR2 field of view and before arriving Venus. A southward deflection of the CME from the source region is found from the trajectory of the CME geometric center. We attribute it to the influence of the coronal hole where the fast solar wind emanated from., Comment: ApJ, accepted

Measurements conducted with the ASPERA-4 instrument and the magnetometer of the Venus Express spacecraft show that the dynamic pressure of planetary O+ ion fluxes measured in the Venus wake can be significantly larger than the local magnetic pressure and, as a result, those ions are not being driven by magnetic forces but by the kinetic energy of the solar wind. Beams of planetary O+ ions with those properties have been detected in several orbits of the Venus Express through the wake as the spacecraft traverses by the noon-midnight plane along its near polar trajectory. The momentum flux of the O+ ions leads to superalfvenic flow conditions. It is suggested that such O+ ion beams are produced in the vicinity of the magnetic polar regions of the Venus ionosphere where the solar wind erodes the local plasma leading to plasma channels that extend downstream from those regions., Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures

A goal of the NASA STEREO mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we discuss the arrival time calculation of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) in the ecliptic plane using data from STEREO/SECCHI at large elongations from the Sun in combination with different geometric assumptions about the ICME front shape (Fixed-\Phi (FP): a point and harmonic Mean (HM): a circle). These forecasting techniques use single-spacecraft imaging data and are based on the assumptions of constant velocity and direction. We show that for the slow (350 km/s) ICME on 2009 February 13-18, observed at quadrature by the two STEREO spacecraft, the results for the arrival time given by the HM approximation are more accurate by 12 hours than those for FP in comparison to in situ observations of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters by STEREO/IMPACT/PLASTIC, and by 6 hours for the arrival time at Venus Express (MAG). We propose that the improvement is directly related to the ICME front shape being more accurately described by HM for an ICME with a low inclination of its symmetry axis to the ecliptic. In this case the ICME has to be tracked to > 30{\deg} elongation to get arrival time errors < 5 hours. A newly derived formula for calculating arrival times with the HM method is also useful for a triangulation technique assuming the same geometry., Comment: ApJ, accepted

Recent research has shown that distinct physical regions in the Venusian induced magnetosphere are recognizable from the variations of strength of the magnetic field and its wave/fluctuation activity. In this paper the statistical properties of magnetic fluctuations are investigated in the Venusian magnetosheath and wake regions. The main goal is to identify the characteristic scaling features of fluctuations along Venus Express (VEX) trajectory and to understand the specific circumstances of the occurrence of different types of scalings. For the latter task we also use the results of measurements from the previous missions to Venus. Our main result is that the changing character of physical interactions between the solar wind and the planetary obstacle is leading to different types of spectral scaling in the near-Venusian space. Noisy fluctuations are observed in the magnetosheath, wavy structures near the terminator and in the nightside near-planet wake. Multi-scale turbulence is observed at the magnetosheath boundary layer and near the quasi-parallel bow shock. Magnetosheath boundary layer turbulence is associated with an average magnetic field which is nearly aligned with the Sun-Venus line. Noisy magnetic fluctuations are well described with the Gaussian statistics. Both magnetosheath boundary layer and near shock turbulence statistics exhibit non-Gaussian features and intermittency over small spatio-temporal scales. The occurrence of turbulence near magnetosheath boundaries can be responsible for the local heating of plasma observed by previous missions.

Recent research has shown that distinct physical regions in the Venusian induced magnetosphere are recognizable from the variations of strength and of wave/fluctuation activity of the magnetic field. In this paper the statistical properties of magnetic fluctuations are investigated in the Venusian magnetosheath, terminator, and wake regions. The latter two regions were not visited by previous missions. We found 1/f fluctuations in the magnetosheath, large-scale structures near the terminator and more developed turbulence further downstream in the wake. Location independent short-tailed non-Gaussian statistics was observed., Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures

The objective of the paper is to asses the specific spectral scaling properties of magnetic reconnection associated fluctuations/turbulence at the Earthward and tailward outflow regions observed simultaneously by the Cluster and Double Star (TC-2) spacecraft on September 26, 2005. Systematic comparisons of spectral characteristics, including variance anisotropy and scale-dependent spectral anisotropy features in wave vector space were possible due to the well-documented reconnection events, occurring between the positions of Cluster (X = -14--16 $R_e$) and TC-2 (X = -6.6 $R_e$). Another factor of key importance is that the magnetometers on the spacecraft are similar. The comparisons provide further evidence for asymmetry of physical processes in Earthward/tailward reconnection outflow regions. Variance anisotropy and spectral anisotropy angles estimated from the multi-scale magnetic fluctuations in the tailward outflow region show features which are characteristic for magnetohydrodynamic cascading turbulence in the presence of a local mean magnetic field. The multi-scale magnetic fluctuations in the Earthward outflow region are exhibiting more power, lack of variance and scale dependent anisotropies, but also having larger anisotropy angles. In this region the magnetic field is more dipolar, the main processes driving turbulence are flow breaking/mixing, perhaps combined with turbulence ageing and non-cascade related multi-scale energy sources., Comment: 30 pages, 6 figures

Small-scale magnetic turbulence observed by the Cluster spacecraft in the plasma sheet is investigated by means of a wavelet estimator suitable for detecting distinct scaling characteristics even in noisy measurements. The spectral estimators used for this purpose are affected by a frequency dependent bias. The variances of the wavelet coefficients, however, match the power-law shaped spectra, which makes the wavelet estimator essentially unbiased. These scaling characteristics of the magnetic field data appear to be essentially non-steady and intermittent. The scaling properties of bursty bulk flow (BBF) and non-BBF associated magnetic fluctuations are analysed with the aim of understanding processes of energy transfer between scales. Small-scale ($\sim 0.08-0.3$ s) magnetic fluctuations having the same scaling index $\alpha \sim 2.6$ as the large-scale ($\sim 0.7-5$ s) magnetic fluctuations occur during BBF-associated periods. During non-BBF associated periods the energy transfer to small scales is absent, and the large-scale scaling index $\alpha \sim 1.7$ is closer to Kraichnan or Iroshnikov-Kraichnan scalings. The anisotropy characteristics of magnetic fluctuations show both scale-dependent and scale-independent behavior. The former can be partly explained in terms of the Goldreich-Sridhar model of MHD turbulence, which leads to the picture of Alfv\'{e}nic turbulence parallel and of eddy turbulence perpendicular to the mean magnetic field direction. Nonetheless, other physical mechanisms, such as transverse magnetic structures, velocity shears, or boundary effects can contribute to the anisotropy characteristics of plasma sheet turbulence. The scale-independent features are related to anisotropy characteristics which occur during a period of magnetic reconnection and fast tailward flow., Comment: 32 pages, 12 figures

This paper demonstrates that intermittent magnetic field fluctuations in the plasma sheet exhibit transitory, localized, and multi-scale features. We propose a multifractal based algorithm, which quantifies intermittence on the basis of the statistical distribution of the 'strength of burstiness', estimated within a sliding window. Interesting multi-scale phenomena observed by the Cluster spacecraft include large scale motion of the current sheet and bursty bulk flow associated turbulence, interpreted as a cross-scale coupling (CSC) process., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures

Recent studies provide evidence for the multi-scale nature of magnetic turbulence in the plasma sheet. Wavelet methods represent modern time series analysis techniques suitable for the description of statistical characteristics of multi-scale turbulence. Cluster FGM (fluxgate magnetometer) magnetic field high-resolution (~67 Hz) measurements are studied during an interval in which the spacecraft are in the plasma sheet. As Cluster passes through different plasma regions, physical processes exhibit non-steady properties on magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) and small, possibly kinetic scales. As a consequence, the implementation of wavelet-based techniques becomes complicated due to the statistically transitory properties of magnetic fluctuations and finite size effects. Using a supervised multi-scale technique which allows existence test of moments, the robustness of higher-order statistics is investigated. On this basis the properties of magnetic turbulence are investigated for changing thickness of the plasma sheet., Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures