Search

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) severely threatens the public health worldwide, but the transmission mechanism and the effectiveness of mitigation measures remain uncertain. Here we assess the role of airborne transmission in spreading the disease and the effectiveness of face covering in preventing inter-human transmission for the top-fifteen infected U.S. states during March 1 and May 18, 2020. For all fifteen states, the curve of total confirmed infections exhibits an initial sub-exponential growth and a subsequent linear growth after implementing social distancing/stay-at-home orders. The linearity extends one to two months for the six states without mandated face covering and to the onset of mandated face covering for the other nine states with this measure, reflecting a dynamic equilibrium between first-order transmission kinetics and intervention. For the states with mandated face covering, significant deviation from this linearity and curve flattening occur after the onset of this measure for seven states, with exceptions for two states. Most states exhibit persistent upward trends in the daily new infections after social distancing/stay-at-home orders, while reversed downward or slowing trends occur for eight states after implementing mandated face covering. The inadequacy of social distancing and stay-at-home measures alone in preventing inter-human transmission is reflected by the continuous linear growth in the total infection curve after implementing these measures, which is mainly driven by airborne transmission. We estimate that the number of the total infections prevented by face covering reaches ~252,000 on May 18 in seven states, which is equivalent to ~17% of the total infections in the nation. We conclude that airborne transmission and face covering play the dominant role in spreading the disease and flattening the total infection curve, respectively. Our findings provide policymakers and the public with compelling evidence that universal face covering, in conjunction with social distancing and hand hygiene, represents the maximal protection against inter-human transmission and the combination of these intervention measures with rapid and extensive testing as well as contact tracing is crucial in containing the COVID-19 pandemic.

Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) represents a major constituent of tropospheric fine particulate matter, with profound implications for human health and climate. However, the chemical mechanisms leading to SOA formation remain uncertain, and atmospheric models consistently underpredict the global SOA budget. Small α-dicarbonyls, such as methylglyoxal, are ubiquitous in the atmosphere because of their significant production from photooxidation of aromatic hydrocarbons from traffic and industrial sources as well as from biogenic isoprene. Current experimental and theoretical results on the roles of methylglyoxal in SOA formation are conflicting. Using quantum chemical calculations, we show cationic oligomerization of methylglyoxal in aqueous media. Initial protonation and hydration of methylglyoxal lead to formation of diols/tetrol, and subsequent protonation and dehydration of diols/tetrol yield carbenium ions, which represent the key intermediates for formation and propagation of oligomerization. On the other hand, our results reveal that the previously proposed oligomerization via hydration for methylglyoxal is kinetically and thermodynamically implausible. The carbenium ion-mediated mechanism occurs barrierlessly on weakly acidic aerosols and cloud/fog droplets and likely provides a key pathway for SOA formation from biogenic and anthropogenic emissions.

Although regional haze adversely affects human health and possibly counteracts global warming from increasing levels of greenhouse gases, the formation and radiative forcing of regional haze on climate remain uncertain. By combining field measurements, laboratory experiments, and model simulations, we show a remarkable role of black carbon (BC) particles in driving the formation and trend of regional haze. Our analysis of long-term measurements in China indicates declined frequency of heavy haze events along with significantly reduced SO2, but negligibly alleviated haze severity. Also, no improving trend exists for moderate haze events. Our complementary laboratory experiments demonstrate that SO2 oxidation is efficiently catalyzed on BC particles in the presence of NO2 and NH3, even at low SO2 and intermediate relative humidity levels. Inclusion of the BC reaction accounts for about 90-100% and 30-50% of the sulfate production during moderate and heavy haze events, respectively. Calculations using a radiative transfer model and accounting for the sulfate formation on BC yield an invariant radiative forcing of nearly zero W m-2 on the top of the atmosphere throughout haze development, indicating small net climatic cooling/warming but large surface cooling, atmospheric heating, and air stagnation. This BC catalytic chemistry facilitates haze development and explains the observed trends of regional haze in China. Our results imply that reduction of SO2 alone is insufficient in mitigating haze occurrence and highlight the necessity of accurate representation of the BC chemical and radiative properties in predicting the formation and assessing the impacts of regional haze.

High levels of ultrafine particles (UFPs; diameter of less than 50 nm) are frequently produced from new particle formation under urban conditions, with profound implications on human health, weather, and climate. However, the fundamental mechanisms of new particle formation remain elusive, and few experimental studies have realistically replicated the relevant atmospheric conditions. Previous experimental studies simulated oxidation of one compound or a mixture of a few compounds, and extrapolation of the laboratory results to chemically complex air was uncertain. Here, we show striking formation of UFPs in urban air from combining ambient and chamber measurements. By capturing the ambient conditions (i.e., temperature, relative humidity, sunlight, and the types and abundances of chemical species), we elucidate the roles of existing particles, photochemistry, and synergy of multipollutants in new particle formation. Aerosol nucleation in urban air is limited by existing particles but negligibly by nitrogen oxides. Photooxidation of vehicular exhaust yields abundant precursors, and organics, rather than sulfuric acid or base species, dominate formation of UFPs under urban conditions. Recognition of this source of UFPs is essential to assessing their impacts and developing mitigation policies. Our results imply that reduction of primary particles or removal of existing particles without simultaneously limiting organics from automobile emissions is ineffective and can even exacerbate this problem.

Early life exposure to fine particulate matter (PM) in air is associated with infant respiratory disease and childhood asthma, but limited epidemiological data exist concerning the impacts of ultrafine particles (UFPs) on the etiology of childhood respiratory disease. Specifically, the role of UFPs in amplifying Th2- and/or Th17-driven inflammation (asthma promotion) or suppressing effector T cells (increased susceptibility to respiratory infection) remains unclear. Using a mouse model of in utero UFP exposure, we determined early immunological responses to house dust mite (HDM) allergen in offspring challenged from 0 to 4 wk of age. Two mice strains were exposed throughout gestation: C57BL/6 (sensitive to oxidative stress) and BALB/C (sensitive to allergen exposure). Offspring exposed to UFPs in utero exhibited reduced inflammatory response to HDM. Compared with filtered air (FA)-exposed/HDM-challenged mice, UFP-exposed offspring had lower white blood cell counts in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and less pronounced peribronchiolar inflammation in both strains, albeit more apparent in C57BL/6 mice. In the C57BL/6 strain, offspring exposed in utero to FA and challenged with HDM exhibited a robust response in inflammatory cytokines IL-13 and Il-17. In contrast, this response was lost in offspring exposed in utero to UFPs. Circulating IL-10 was significantly up-regulated in C57BL/6 offspring exposed to UFPs, suggesting increased regulatory T cell expression and suppressed Th2/Th17 response. Our results reveal that in utero UFP exposure at a level close to the WHO recommended PM guideline suppresses an early immune response to HDM allergen, likely predisposing neonates to respiratory infection and altering long-term pulmonary health.

The extant research provides inconsistent results regarding the effect of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on firm productivity. There is no research on the effect of OFDI in belt and road (B&R) countries on Chinese firm productivity. In this paper, the impact of B&R OFDI on Chinese firm productivity and its influencing mechanisms are investigated. The main findings of this research are as follows. First, B&R OFDI positively influences productivity by alleviating firms' financial constraints. Second, the presence of market‐driven and production‐driven subsidiaries in B&R countries exerts a favorable moderating impact on firm productivity. Finally, the productive influence of B&R OFDI is more pronounced for firms in eastern China and for those in the energy and transportation sectors, and it is particularly significant for nonstate‐owned enterprises. These findings have practical implications for governments engaged in the design of effective policies for the promotion of B&R OFDIs and for firms developing robust OFDI strategies along the Belt and Road to improve their levels of productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New particle formation (NPF) is one of the important sources of aerosol and an important reason for the rapid increase of PM2.5 mass concentration in polluted areas. It has been shown that citric acid, present in atmosphere, is a potential precursor of new particles and may play a role in the nucleation process of new particles. However, the exact mechanism by which citric acid contributes to nucleation remain unclear. The thermodynamically stable geometry of SA · AM · W n · CA m , SA · DMA · W n · CA m , and SA · AM · DMA · W n · CA m (n = 0–4, m=0–1) clusters were optimized and the Gibbs free energy and hydration distribution were calculated at the M06-2X/6-311+G(2d, p) level in this study. The results demonstrate that three carboxyl groups (-COOH) and one hydroxyl group (-OH) of citric acid can act as both hydrogen donors and acceptors through hydrogen bonding interactions with sulfuric acid-base-water clusters. This interaction lowers the nucleation barriers (△G﹤ 0), indicating an energetically favorable reaction. At three relative humidities (RH), anhydrous and monohydrate forms dominate in SA · AM · Wn · CA clusters, as well as SA · AM · DMA · Wn · CA (n = 0–4) clusters; while anhydrous form dominates in SA · DMA · Wn · CA (n = 0–4) clusters. These findings suggest that citric acid reduces the hydrophilicity of these clusters. In conclusion, the involvement of citric acid in atmospheric processes is conductive to cluster formation, thereby facilitating the multicomponent nucleation of sulfuric acid-base-water clusters. Overall, our study highlights how citric acid participates in and enhances new particle formation processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Fish Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Saharan dust exerts profound impacts on the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Such impacts on various stages of the TCs have yet to be explored. In this study, we utilize the Cloud‐Resolving weather research and forecasting model (WRF) to investigate the relative importance of the microphysical and radiative effects of dust on two hurricanes (Earl and Danielle) at different life stages under similar dynamical conditions in 2010. Both TCs were embedded in a dusty environment throughout their lifetime. A new dust ice nucleation scheme was implemented into the aerosol‐aware Texas A&M University two‐moment microphysical scheme in WRF. Moreover, the dust radiative effect was included in the Goddard Shortwave Scheme of WRF. Our sensitivity experiments show that the radiative effect of dust (DRAD) amplified the mid‐level ridge in the Central Atlantic Ocean through temperature perturbation, changing the tracks of Danielle and Earl. Further analyses reveal an early shift of Danielle's maximum intensity for 12 hours but a significantly suppressed Earl in DRAD. In addition, the microphysical effect of dust had little impact on the large‐scale dynamical fields and storm tracks. The inclusion of dust as ice nucleation particles results in more variations in the intensity of Danielle and Earl than in other scenarios. This is owing to the higher maximum diabatic heating rate in the rainband region that perturbs the size of the TC. This study shows the dominant dust radiative effects on both intensity and track of the storm. In addition, there is evidence that dust suppresses the early stage TC but provides favorable conditions for matured TC. Both findings have profound implications for hurricane forecast and address the importance of accounting for detailed cloud microphysics and aerosol‐TC interactions in the operational forecasting models. Plain Language Summary: This modeling study assesses how dust from the Saharan Desert affects tropical cyclones (TCs). Dust modifies the radiative transfer by reflecting and absorbing sunlight (the radiative effect) and hence the environmental temperature profile. In addition, dust also changes cloud processes (the dust microphysical effect) that perturbs the cloud distribution. A cloud‐resolving model was used to assess the dust impacts on two TCs at different development stages, that is, Danielle and Earl (2010). We found that the radiative effect of dust plays an important role in the intensity and path of both TCs. Specifically, the radiative effects of dust weakened the early stage TC Earl, resulted in an early shift of maximum intensity of the matured TC Danielle, and perturbed the path of both TCs. The dust microphysics effect, on the other hand, had little impact on the TC environment and its path but induced larger variations in the intensity of both TCs. This study reveals that dust exhibits distinct effects depending on the stage of the TC development, showing that dust suppresses the early stage TC but provides favorable conditions for the matured TC. Key Points: A dust‐related ice nucleating scheme and radiation parameterizations were implemented in the aerosol‐aware weather research and forecasting modelThe radiative effect of dust plays a larger role in the large‐scale environment and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) than the microphysical effectThe dust effect suppresses the early stage TC but provides favorable conditions for matured TC [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause catastrophic damage to coastal regions after landfall. Recent studies have linked the devastation associated with TCs to climate change, which induces favorable conditions, such as increasing sea-surface temperature, to supercharge storms. Meanwhile, environmental factors, such as atmospheric aerosols, also impact the development and intensity of TCs, but their effects remain poorly understood, particularly coupled with ocean dynamics. Here, we quantitatively assess the aerosol microphysical effects and aerosol-modified ocean feedbacks during Hurricane Katrina using a cloud-resolving atmosphere–ocean coupled model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in conjunction with the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). Our model simulations reveal that an enhanced storm destructive power, as reflected by larger integrated kinetic energy, heavier precipitation, and higher sea-level rise, is linked to the combined effects of aerosols and ocean feedbacks. These effects further result in an expansion of the storm circulation with a reduced intensity because of a decreasing moist static energy supply and enhancing vorticity Rossby wave outward propagation. Both accumulated precipitation and storm surge are enhanced during the mature stage of the TC with elevated aerosol concentrations, implying exacerbated flood damage over the polluted coastal region. The ocean feedback following the aerosol microphysical effects tends to mitigate the vertical mixing cooling in the ocean mixing layer and offsets the aerosol-induced storm weakening by enhancing cloud and precipitation near the eyewall region. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the effects of aerosol microphysics and ocean-coupling feedbacks to improve the forecast of TC destructiveness, particularly near the heavily polluted coastal regions along the Gulf of Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]