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Previous foundation models for retinal images were pre-trained with limited disease categories and knowledge base. Here we introduce RetiZero, a vision-language foundation model that leverages knowledge from over 400 fundus diseases. To RetiZero's pre-training, we compiled 341,896 fundus images paired with text descriptions, sourced from public datasets, ophthalmic literature, and online resources, encompassing a diverse range of diseases across multiple ethnicities and countries. RetiZero exhibits superior performance in several downstream tasks, including zero-shot disease recognition, image-to-image retrieval, and internal- and cross-domain disease identification. In zero-shot scenarios, RetiZero achieves Top5 accuracy scores of 0.8430 for 15 fundus diseases and 0.7561 for 52 fundus diseases. For image retrieval, it achieves Top5 scores of 0.9500 and 0.8860 for the same disease sets, respectively. Clinical evaluations show that RetiZero's Top3 zero-shot performance surpasses the average of 19 ophthalmologists from Singapore, China and the United States. Furthermore, RetiZero significantly enhances clinicians' accuracy in diagnosing fundus disease. These findings underscore the value of integrating the RetiZero foundation model into clinical settings, where a variety of fundus diseases are encountered.

Multimodal fusion is crucial in joint decision-making systems for rendering holistic judgments. Since multimodal data changes in open environments, dynamic fusion has emerged and achieved remarkable progress in numerous applications. However, most existing dynamic multimodal fusion methods lack theoretical guarantees and easily fall into suboptimal problems, yielding unreliability and instability. To address this issue, we propose a Predictive Dynamic Fusion (PDF) framework for multimodal learning. We proceed to reveal the multimodal fusion from a generalization perspective and theoretically derive the predictable Collaborative Belief (Co-Belief) with Mono- and Holo-Confidence, which provably reduces the upper bound of generalization error. Accordingly, we further propose a relative calibration strategy to calibrate the predicted Co-Belief for potential uncertainty. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks confirm our superiority. Our code is available at https://github.com/Yinan-Xia/PDF., Comment: Accepted by ICML 2024

Multi-modal ophthalmic image classification plays a key role in diagnosing eye diseases, as it integrates information from different sources to complement their respective performances. However, recent improvements have mainly focused on accuracy, often neglecting the importance of confidence and robustness in predictions for diverse modalities. In this study, we propose a novel multi-modality evidential fusion pipeline for eye disease screening. It provides a measure of confidence for each modality and elegantly integrates the multi-modality information using a multi-distribution fusion perspective. Specifically, our method first utilizes normal inverse gamma prior distributions over pre-trained models to learn both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for uni-modality. Then, the normal inverse gamma distribution is analyzed as the Student's t distribution. Furthermore, within a confidence-aware fusion framework, we propose a mixture of Student's t distributions to effectively integrate different modalities, imparting the model with heavy-tailed properties and enhancing its robustness and reliability. More importantly, the confidence-aware multi-modality ranking regularization term induces the model to more reasonably rank the noisy single-modal and fused-modal confidence, leading to improved reliability and accuracy. Experimental results on both public and internal datasets demonstrate that our model excels in robustness, particularly in challenging scenarios involving Gaussian noise and modality missing conditions. Moreover, our model exhibits strong generalization capabilities to out-of-distribution data, underscoring its potential as a promising solution for multimodal eye disease screening., Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, 9 tables

Multimodal fusion focuses on integrating information from multiple modalities with the goal of more accurate prediction, which has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios, including autonomous driving and medical diagnosis. However, the reliability of multimodal fusion remains largely unexplored especially under low-quality data settings. This paper surveys the common challenges and recent advances of multimodal fusion in the wild and presents them in a comprehensive taxonomy. From a data-centric view, we identify four main challenges that are faced by multimodal fusion on low-quality data, namely (1) noisy multimodal data that are contaminated with heterogeneous noises, (2) incomplete multimodal data that some modalities are missing, (3) imbalanced multimodal data that the qualities or properties of different modalities are significantly different and (4) quality-varying multimodal data that the quality of each modality dynamically changes with respect to different samples. This new taxonomy will enable researchers to understand the state of the field and identify several potential directions. We also provide discussion for the open problems in this field together with interesting future research directions., Comment: Feel free to comment on our manuscript: qingyangzhang@tju.edu.cn

Vision-language foundation models have exhibited remarkable success across a multitude of downstream tasks due to their scalability on extensive image-text paired data. However, these models also display significant limitations when applied to downstream tasks, such as fine-grained image classification, as a result of ``decision shortcuts'' that hinder their generalization capabilities. In this work, we find that the CLIP model possesses a rich set of features, encompassing both \textit{desired invariant causal features} and \textit{undesired decision shortcuts}. Moreover, the underperformance of CLIP on downstream tasks originates from its inability to effectively utilize pre-trained features in accordance with specific task requirements. To address this challenge, we propose a simple yet effective method, Spurious Feature Eraser (SEraser), to alleviate the decision shortcuts by erasing the spurious features. Specifically, we introduce a test-time prompt tuning paradigm that optimizes a learnable prompt, thereby compelling the model to exploit invariant features while disregarding decision shortcuts during the inference phase. The proposed method effectively alleviates excessive dependence on potentially misleading spurious information. We conduct comparative analysis of the proposed method against various approaches which validates the significant superiority.

Miscalibration in deep learning refers to there is a discrepancy between the predicted confidence and performance. This problem usually arises due to the overfitting problem, which is characterized by learning everything presented in the training set, resulting in overconfident predictions during testing. Existing methods typically address overfitting and mitigate the miscalibration by adding a maximum-entropy regularizer to the objective function. The objective can be understood as seeking a model that fits the ground-truth labels by increasing the confidence while also maximizing the entropy of predicted probabilities by decreasing the confidence. However, previous methods lack clear guidance on confidence adjustment, leading to conflicting objectives (increasing but also decreasing confidence). Therefore, we introduce a method called Dynamic Regularization (DReg), which aims to learn what should be learned during training thereby circumventing the confidence adjusting trade-off. At a high level, DReg aims to obtain a more reliable model capable of acknowledging what it knows and does not know. Specifically, DReg effectively fits the labels for in-distribution samples (samples that should be learned) while applying regularization dynamically to samples beyond model capabilities (e.g., outliers), thereby obtaining a robust calibrated model especially on the samples beyond model capabilities. Both theoretical and empirical analyses sufficiently demonstrate the superiority of DReg compared with previous methods.

Recent advancements in large vision-language models (LVLMs) have demonstrated impressive capability in visual information understanding with human language. Despite these advances, LVLMs still face challenges with multimodal hallucination, such as generating text descriptions of objects that are not present in the visual information. However, the underlying fundamental reasons of multimodal hallucinations remain poorly explored. In this paper, we propose a new perspective, suggesting that the inherent biases in LVLMs might be a key factor in hallucinations. Specifically, we systematically identify a semantic shift bias related to paragraph breaks (\n\n), where the content before and after '\n\n' in the training data frequently exhibit significant semantic changes. This pattern leads the model to infer that the contents following '\n\n' should be obviously different from the preceding contents with less hallucinatory descriptions, thereby increasing the probability of hallucinatory descriptions subsequent to the '\n\n'. We have validated this hypothesis on multiple publicly available LVLMs. Besides, we find that deliberately inserting '\n\n' at the generated description can induce more hallucinations. A simple method is proposed to effectively mitigate the hallucination of LVLMs by skipping the output of '\n'.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods often exploit auxiliary outliers to train model identifying OOD samples, especially discovering challenging outliers from auxiliary outliers dataset to improve OOD detection. However, they may still face limitations in effectively distinguishing between the most challenging OOD samples that are much like in-distribution (ID) data, i.e., \idlike samples. To this end, we propose a novel OOD detection framework that discovers \idlike outliers using CLIP \cite{DBLP:conf/icml/RadfordKHRGASAM21} from the vicinity space of the ID samples, thus helping to identify these most challenging OOD samples. Then a prompt learning framework is proposed that utilizes the identified \idlike outliers to further leverage the capabilities of CLIP for OOD detection. Benefiting from the powerful CLIP, we only need a small number of ID samples to learn the prompts of the model without exposing other auxiliary outlier datasets. By focusing on the most challenging \idlike OOD samples and elegantly exploiting the capabilities of CLIP, our method achieves superior few-shot learning performance on various real-world image datasets (e.g., in 4-shot OOD detection on the ImageNet-1k dataset, our method reduces the average FPR95 by 12.16\% and improves the average AUROC by 2.76\%, compared to state-of-the-art methods). Code is available at https://github.com/ycfate/ID-like.

Nowadays, billions of people engage in communication and express their opinions on the internet daily. Unfortunately, not all of these expressions are friendly or compliant, making content moderation an indispensable task. A common approach is to use a discriminative model to classify the content, but this method often requires strict data engineering, otherwise it will face unacceptable overfitting. With the successful development of Large Language Models (LLMs) in recent years, LLM-based methods have become a feasible solution for handling tasks in various domains. Thanks to the knowledge of the foundation models, we can develop more robust privately deployed models with limited data via fine-tuning these foundation models. Moreover, as a generative model, it can provide detailed analysis of the review process, enhancing interpretability. In this paper, we introduce how to fine-tune a LLM model that can be privately deployed for content moderation. Specifically, we discuss the differences between discriminative and generative models using content moderation as an example. Additionally, we reveal that incorporating reasoning processes during the fine-tuning of LLMs can effectively alleviate overfitting, even if the model is not allowed to directly output reasoning processes during deployment. We present a complete process, from data collection and construction to model training and overfitting elimination, for fine-tuning LLMs in vertical domain deployments. We report the entire research process and the key findings in this paper, hoping to provide valuable experience for researchers who are fine-tuning privately deployed models in their domain-specific research.

Mixup is a well-established data augmentation technique, which can extend the training distribution and regularize the neural networks by creating ''mixed'' samples based on the label-equivariance assumption, i.e., a proportional mixup of the input data results in the corresponding labels being mixed in the same proportion. However, previous mixup variants may fail to exploit the label-independent information in mixed samples during training, which usually contains richer semantic information. To further release the power of mixup, we first improve the previous label-equivariance assumption by the semantic-equivariance assumption, which states that the proportional mixup of the input data should lead to the corresponding representation being mixed in the same proportion. Then a generic mixup regularization at the representation level is proposed, which can further regularize the model with the semantic information in mixed samples. At a high level, the proposed semantic equivariant mixup (sem) encourages the structure of the input data to be preserved in the representation space, i.e., the change of input will result in the obtained representation information changing in the same way. Different from previous mixup variants, which tend to over-focus on the label-related information, the proposed method aims to preserve richer semantic information in the input with semantic-equivariance assumption, thereby improving the robustness of the model against distribution shifts. We conduct extensive empirical studies and qualitative analyzes to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method. The code of the manuscript is in the supplement., Comment: Under review

The inherent challenge of multimodal fusion is to precisely capture the cross-modal correlation and flexibly conduct cross-modal interaction. To fully release the value of each modality and mitigate the influence of low-quality multimodal data, dynamic multimodal fusion emerges as a promising learning paradigm. Despite its widespread use, theoretical justifications in this field are still notably lacking. Can we design a provably robust multimodal fusion method? This paper provides theoretical understandings to answer this question under a most popular multimodal fusion framework from the generalization perspective. We proceed to reveal that several uncertainty estimation solutions are naturally available to achieve robust multimodal fusion. Then a novel multimodal fusion framework termed Quality-aware Multimodal Fusion (QMF) is proposed, which can improve the performance in terms of classification accuracy and model robustness. Extensive experimental results on multiple benchmarks can support our findings., Comment: Accepted by ICML 2023

Cutting out an object and estimating its opacity mask, known as image matting, is a key task in image and video editing. Due to the highly ill-posed issue, additional inputs, typically user-defined trimaps or scribbles, are usually needed to reduce the uncertainty. Although effective, it is either time consuming or only suitable for experienced users who know where to place the strokes. In this work, we propose a decomposed-uncertainty-guided matting (dugMatting) algorithm, which explores the explicitly decomposed uncertainties to efficiently and effectively improve the results. Basing on the characteristic of these uncertainties, the epistemic uncertainty is reduced in the process of guiding interaction (which introduces prior knowledge), while the aleatoric uncertainty is reduced in modeling data distribution (which introduces statistics for both data and possible noise). The proposed matting framework relieves the requirement for users to determine the interaction areas by using simple and efficient labeling. Extensively quantitative and qualitative results validate that the proposed method significantly improves the original matting algorithms in terms of both efficiency and efficacy.

Multimodal machine learning has achieved remarkable progress in a wide range of scenarios. However, the reliability of multimodal learning remains largely unexplored. In this paper, through extensive empirical studies, we identify current multimodal classification methods suffer from unreliable predictive confidence that tend to rely on partial modalities when estimating confidence. Specifically, we find that the confidence estimated by current models could even increase when some modalities are corrupted. To address the issue, we introduce an intuitive principle for multimodal learning, i.e., the confidence should not increase when one modality is removed. Accordingly, we propose a novel regularization technique, i.e., Calibrating Multimodal Learning (CML) regularization, to calibrate the predictive confidence of previous methods. This technique could be flexibly equipped by existing models and improve the performance in terms of confidence calibration, classification accuracy, and model robustness.

Robust multi-view learning with incomplete information has received significant attention due to issues such as incomplete correspondences and incomplete instances that commonly affect real-world multi-view applications. Existing approaches heavily rely on paired samples to realign or impute defective ones, but such preconditions cannot always be satisfied in practice due to the complexity of data collection and transmission. To address this problem, we present a novel framework called SeMantic Invariance LEarning (SMILE) for multi-view clustering with incomplete information that does not require any paired samples. To be specific, we discover the existence of invariant semantic distribution across different views, which enables SMILE to alleviate the cross-view discrepancy to learn consensus semantics without requiring any paired samples. The resulting consensus semantics remain unaffected by cross-view distribution shifts, making them useful for realigning/imputing defective instances and forming clusters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of SMILE through extensive comparison experiments with 13 state-of-the-art baselines on five benchmarks. Our approach improves the clustering accuracy of NoisyMNIST from 19.3\%/23.2\% to 82.7\%/69.0\% when the correspondences/instances are fully incomplete. The code could be accessed from https://pengxi.me.

Classifying incomplete multi-view data is inevitable since arbitrary view missing widely exists in real-world applications. Although great progress has been achieved, existing incomplete multi-view methods are still difficult to obtain a trustworthy prediction due to the relatively high uncertainty nature of missing views. First, the missing view is of high uncertainty, and thus it is not reasonable to provide a single deterministic imputation. Second, the quality of the imputed data itself is of high uncertainty. To explore and exploit the uncertainty, we propose an Uncertainty-induced Incomplete Multi-View Data Classification (UIMC) model to classify the incomplete multi-view data under a stable and reliable framework. We construct a distribution and sample multiple times to characterize the uncertainty of missing views, and adaptively utilize them according to the sampling quality. Accordingly, the proposed method realizes more perceivable imputation and controllable fusion. Specifically, we model each missing data with a distribution conditioning on the available views and thus introducing uncertainty. Then an evidence-based fusion strategy is employed to guarantee the trustworthy integration of the imputed views. Extensive experiments are conducted on multiple benchmark data sets and our method establishes a state-of-the-art performance in terms of both performance and trustworthiness., Comment: CVPR

Subpopulation shift exists widely in many real-world applications, which refers to the training and test distributions that contain the same subpopulation groups but with different subpopulation proportions. Ignoring subpopulation shifts may lead to significant performance degradation and fairness concerns. Importance reweighting is a classical and effective way to handle the subpopulation shift. However, recent studies have recognized that most of these approaches fail to improve the performance especially when applied to over-parameterized neural networks which are capable of fitting any training samples. In this work, we propose a simple yet practical framework, called reweighted mixup (RMIX), to mitigate the overfitting issue in over-parameterized models by conducting importance weighting on the ''mixed'' samples. Benefiting from leveraging reweighting in mixup, RMIX allows the model to explore the vicinal space of minority samples more, thereby obtaining more robust model against subpopulation shift. When the subpopulation memberships are unknown, the training-trajectories-based uncertainty estimation is equipped in the proposed RMIX to flexibly characterize the subpopulation distribution. We also provide insightful theoretical analysis to verify that RMIX achieves better generalization bounds over prior works. Further, we conduct extensive empirical studies across a wide range of tasks to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method., Comment: Journal version of arXiv:2209.08928

Failure to recognize samples from the classes unseen during training is a major limitation of artificial intelligence in the real-world implementation for recognition and classification of retinal anomalies. We established an uncertainty-inspired open-set (UIOS) model, which was trained with fundus images of 9 retinal conditions. Besides assessing the probability of each category, UIOS also calculated an uncertainty score to express its confidence. Our UIOS model with thresholding strategy achieved an F1 score of 99.55%, 97.01% and 91.91% for the internal testing set, external target categories (TC)-JSIEC dataset and TC-unseen testing set, respectively, compared to the F1 score of 92.20%, 80.69% and 64.74% by the standard AI model. Furthermore, UIOS correctly predicted high uncertainty scores, which would prompt the need for a manual check in the datasets of non-target categories retinal diseases, low-quality fundus images, and non-fundus images. UIOS provides a robust method for real-world screening of retinal anomalies.

Large language models have demonstrated surprising ability to perform in-context learning, i.e., these models can be directly applied to solve numerous downstream tasks by conditioning on a prompt constructed by a few input-output examples. However, prior research has shown that in-context learning can suffer from high instability due to variations in training examples, example order, and prompt formats. Therefore, the construction of an appropriate prompt is essential for improving the performance of in-context learning. In this paper, we revisit this problem from the view of predictive bias. Specifically, we introduce a metric to evaluate the predictive bias of a fixed prompt against labels or a given attributes. Then we empirically show that prompts with higher bias always lead to unsatisfactory predictive quality. Based on this observation, we propose a novel search strategy based on the greedy search to identify the near-optimal prompt for improving the performance of in-context learning. We perform comprehensive experiments with state-of-the-art mainstream models such as GPT-3 on various downstream tasks. Our results indicate that our method can enhance the model's in-context learning performance in an effective and interpretable manner.

The imbalance problem is widespread in the field of machine learning, which also exists in multimodal learning areas caused by the intrinsic discrepancy between modalities of samples. Recent works have attempted to solve the modality imbalance problem from algorithm perspective, however, they do not fully analyze the influence of modality bias in datasets. Concretely, existing multimodal datasets are usually collected under specific tasks, where one modality tends to perform better than other ones in most conditions. In this work, to comprehensively explore the influence of modality bias, we first split existing datasets into different subsets by estimating sample-wise modality discrepancy. We surprisingly find that: the multimodal models with existing imbalance algorithms consistently perform worse than the unimodal one on specific subsets, in accordance with the modality bias. To further explore the influence of modality bias and analyze the effectiveness of existing imbalance algorithms, we build a balanced audiovisual dataset, with uniformly distributed modality discrepancy over the whole dataset. We then conduct extensive experiments to re-evaluate existing imbalance algorithms and draw some interesting findings: existing algorithms only provide a compromise between modalities and suffer from the large modality discrepancy of samples. We hope that these findings could facilitate future research on the modality imbalance problem., Comment: website:https://gewu-lab.github.io/Balanced-Audiovisual-Dataset/

In this paper, we study a novel and widely existing problem in graph matching (GM), namely, Bi-level Noisy Correspondence (BNC), which refers to node-level noisy correspondence (NNC) and edge-level noisy correspondence (ENC). In brief, on the one hand, due to the poor recognizability and viewpoint differences between images, it is inevitable to inaccurately annotate some keypoints with offset and confusion, leading to the mismatch between two associated nodes, i.e., NNC. On the other hand, the noisy node-to-node correspondence will further contaminate the edge-to-edge correspondence, thus leading to ENC. For the BNC challenge, we propose a novel method termed Contrastive Matching with Momentum Distillation. Specifically, the proposed method is with a robust quadratic contrastive loss which enjoys the following merits: i) better exploring the node-to-node and edge-to-edge correlations through a GM customized quadratic contrastive learning paradigm; ii) adaptively penalizing the noisy assignments based on the confidence estimated by the momentum teacher. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets show the robustness of our model compared with 12 competitive baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/XLearning-SCU/2023-ICCV-COMMON., Comment: Accepted by ICCV 2023

Subpopulation shift widely exists in many real-world machine learning applications, referring to the training and test distributions containing the same subpopulation groups but varying in subpopulation frequencies. Importance reweighting is a normal way to handle the subpopulation shift issue by imposing constant or adaptive sampling weights on each sample in the training dataset. However, some recent studies have recognized that most of these approaches fail to improve the performance over empirical risk minimization especially when applied to over-parameterized neural networks. In this work, we propose a simple yet practical framework, called uncertainty-aware mixup (UMIX), to mitigate the overfitting issue in over-parameterized models by reweighting the ''mixed'' samples according to the sample uncertainty. The training-trajectories-based uncertainty estimation is equipped in the proposed UMIX for each sample to flexibly characterize the subpopulation distribution. We also provide insightful theoretical analysis to verify that UMIX achieves better generalization bounds over prior works. Further, we conduct extensive empirical studies across a wide range of tasks to validate the effectiveness of our method both qualitatively and quantitatively. Code is available at https://github.com/TencentAILabHealthcare/UMIX., Comment: NeurIPS 2022

Existing multi-view classification algorithms focus on promoting accuracy by exploiting different views, typically integrating them into common representations for follow-up tasks. Although effective, it is also crucial to ensure the reliability of both the multi-view integration and the final decision, especially for noisy, corrupted and out-of-distribution data. Dynamically assessing the trustworthiness of each view for different samples could provide reliable integration. This can be achieved through uncertainty estimation. With this in mind, we propose a novel multi-view classification algorithm, termed trusted multi-view classification (TMC), providing a new paradigm for multi-view learning by dynamically integrating different views at an evidence level. The proposed TMC can promote classification reliability by considering evidence from each view. Specifically, we introduce the variational Dirichlet to characterize the distribution of the class probabilities, parameterized with evidence from different views and integrated with the Dempster-Shafer theory. The unified learning framework induces accurate uncertainty and accordingly endows the model with both reliability and robustness against possible noise or corruption. Both theoretical and experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed model in accuracy, robustness and trustworthiness., Comment: Journal version of arXiv:2102.02051. Accepted by IEEE TPAMI

Learning from different data views by exploring the underlying complementary information among them can endow the representation with stronger expressive ability. However, high-dimensional features tend to contain noise, and furthermore, the quality of data usually varies for different samples (even for different views), i.e., one view may be informative for one sample but not the case for another. Therefore, it is quite challenging to integrate multi-view noisy data under unsupervised setting. Traditional multi-view methods either simply treat each view with equal importance or tune the weights of different views to fixed values, which are insufficient to capture the dynamic noise in multi-view data. In this work, we devise a novel unsupervised multi-view learning approach, termed as Dynamic Uncertainty-Aware Networks (DUA-Nets). Guided by the uncertainty of data estimated from the generation perspective, intrinsic information from multiple views is integrated to obtain noise-free representations. Under the help of uncertainty, DUA-Nets weigh each view of individual sample according to data quality so that the high-quality samples (or views) can be fully exploited while the effects from the noisy samples (or views) will be alleviated. Our model achieves superior performance in extensive experiments and shows the robustness to noisy data., Comment: AAAI 2021 published paper

Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and accordingly unpromising performance especially on tail classes. Recently, the ensembling based methods achieve the state-of-the-art performance and show great potential. However, there are two limitations for current methods. First, their predictions are not trustworthy for failure-sensitive applications. This is especially harmful for the tail classes where the wrong predictions is basically frequent. Second, they assign unified numbers of experts to all samples, which is redundant for easy samples with excessive computational cost. To address these issues, we propose a Trustworthy Long-tailed Classification (TLC) method to jointly conduct classification and uncertainty estimation to identify hard samples in a multi-expert framework. Our TLC obtains the evidence-based uncertainty (EvU) and evidence for each expert, and then combines these uncertainties and evidences under the Dempster-Shafer Evidence Theory (DST). Moreover, we propose a dynamic expert engagement to reduce the number of engaged experts for easy samples and achieve efficiency while maintaining promising performances. Finally, we conduct comprehensive experiments on the tasks of classification, tail detection, OOD detection and failure prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed TLC outperforms existing methods and is trustworthy with reliable uncertainty., Comment: IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition 2022

Multimodal regression is a fundamental task, which integrates the information from different sources to improve the performance of follow-up applications. However, existing methods mainly focus on improving the performance and often ignore the confidence of prediction for diverse situations. In this study, we are devoted to trustworthy multimodal regression which is critical in cost-sensitive domains. To this end, we introduce a novel Mixture of Normal-Inverse Gamma distributions (MoNIG) algorithm, which efficiently estimates uncertainty in principle for adaptive integration of different modalities and produces a trustworthy regression result. Our model can be dynamically aware of uncertainty for each modality, and also robust for corrupted modalities. Furthermore, the proposed MoNIG ensures explicitly representation of (modality-specific/global) epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, respectively. Experimental results on both synthetic and different real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness and trustworthiness of our method on various multimodal regression tasks (e.g., temperature prediction for superconductivity, relative location prediction for CT slices, and multimodal sentiment analysis)., Comment: Accepted to NeurIPS 2021

Uncertainty estimation is critical for cost-sensitive deep-learning applications (i.e. disease diagnosis). It is very challenging partly due to the inaccessibility of uncertainty groundtruth in most datasets. Previous works proposed to estimate the uncertainty from softmax calibration, Monte Carlo sampling, subjective logic and so on. However, these existing methods tend to be over-confident about their predictions with unreasonably low overall uncertainty, which originates from the imbalance between positive (correct classifications) and negative (incorrect classifications) samples. For this issue, we firstly propose the distributional imbalance to model the imbalance in uncertainty estimation as two kinds of distribution biases, and secondly propose Balanced True Class Probability (BTCP) framework, which learns an uncertainty estimator with a novel Distributional Focal Loss (DFL) objective. Finally, we evaluate the BTCP in terms of failure prediction and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection on multiple datasets. The experimental results show that BTCP outperforms other uncertainty estimation methods especially in identifying incorrect classifications.