1. Modelling jaguar gene flow in fragmented landscapes offers insights into functional population connectivity
- Author
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Calderón, Ana Patricia, Landaverde-Gonzalez, P., Wultsch, C., Foster, R., Harmsen, B., Figueroa, O., Garcia-Anleu, R., Castañeda, F., Amato, G., Grimm, Volker, Kramer-Schadt, S., Zeller, K.A., Calderón, Ana Patricia, Landaverde-Gonzalez, P., Wultsch, C., Foster, R., Harmsen, B., Figueroa, O., Garcia-Anleu, R., Castañeda, F., Amato, G., Grimm, Volker, Kramer-Schadt, S., and Zeller, K.A.
- Abstract
Context Preserving functional connectivity is a conservation priority to secure the long-term viability of geographically dispersed subpopulations, such as the jaguar (Panthera onca) populations in Central America. However, managing connectivity in this region is limited due to the scarcity of local assessments of the connectivity between existing populations, some of which exhibit low levels of gene flow and genetic admixture. Objectives We selected the jaguar as a model species to understand how gene flow of large carnivores is shaped in a heavily human-impacted landscape in the Neotropics. We assessed the impact of landscape features and spatial scale on jaguar gene flow across northern Central America, predicted synoptic, landscape-wide functional connectivity across the region; and compared connectivity predictions based on models of gene flow, habitat suitability, and expert knowledge. Methods We employed genetic data based on 335 faecal samples collected from 72 individual jaguars. We parameterized gene flow resistance surfaces using linear mixed effects models and the maximum likelihood population-effects method. We evaluated nine landscape variables at six spatial scales, selecting the optimal scale and transformation for each variable according to univariate models and AIC. To predict jaguar gene flow, we developed multivariate models and implemented resistant kernels to forecast functional connectivity between jaguar populations across the study region under three dispersal distance scenarios. Furthermore, we compared the connectivity estimates based on gene flow against those based on habitat suitability and the corridors delineated by expert knowledge in the region. Results Low resistance to jaguar gene flow was associated with greater tree cover and vegetation, lower areas of built-up, and intermediate distances from water bodies. Notably, tree cover affected jaguar gene flow on a smaller scale compared to the rest of variables. Highe
- Published
- 2024