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BACKGROUND: There are conflicting data on whether nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with susceptibility to pancreatic cancer. Using Mendelian randomization (MR), we investigated the relationship between genetic predisposition to NAFLD and risk for pancreatic cancer. METHODS: Data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) within the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan; cases n = 5,090, controls n = 8,733) and the Pancreatic Cancer Case Control Consortium (PanC4; cases n = 4,163, controls n = 3,792) were analyzed. We used data on 68 genetic variants with four different MR methods [inverse variance weighting (IVW), MR-Egger, simple median, and penalized weighted median] separately to predict genetic heritability of NAFLD. We then assessed the relationship between each of the four MR methods and pancreatic cancer risk, using logistic regression to calculate ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusting for PC risk factors, including obesity and diabetes. RESULTS: No association was found between genetically predicted NAFLD and pancreatic cancer risk in the PanScan or PanC4 samples [e.g., PanScan, IVW OR, 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.88-1.22; MR-Egger OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.65-1.21; PanC4, IVW OR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.90-1.27; MR-Egger OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.67-1.28]. None of the four MR methods indicated an association between genetically predicted NAFLD and pancreatic cancer risk in either sample. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic predisposition to NAFLD is not associated with pancreatic cancer risk. IMPACT: Given the close relationship between NAFLD and metabolic conditions, it is plausible that any association between NAFLD and pancreatic cancer might reflect host metabolic perturbations (e.g., obesity, diabetes, or metabolic syndrome) and does not necessarily reflect a causal relationship between NAFLD and pancreatic cancer.

Abstract Background Sub-cohort sampling designs such as a case-cohort study play a key role in studying biomarker-disease associations due to their cost effectiveness. Time-to-event outcome is often the focus in cohort studies, and the research goal is to assess the association between the event risk and risk factors. In this paper, we propose a novel goodness-of-fit two-phase sampling design for time-to-event outcomes when some covariates (e.g., biomarkers) can only be measured on a subgroup of study subjects. Methods Assuming that an external model, which can be the well-established risk models such as the Gail model for breast cancer, Gleason score for prostate cancer, and Framingham risk models for heart diseases, or built from preliminary data, is available to relate the outcome and complete covariates, we propose to oversample subjects with worse goodness-of-fit (GOF) based on an external survival model and time-to-event. With the cases and controls sampled using the GOF two-phase design, the inverse sampling probability weighting method is used to estimate the log hazard ratio of both incomplete and complete covariates. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the efficiency gain of our proposed GOF two-phase sampling designs over case-cohort study designs. Results Through extensive simulations based on a dataset from the New York University Women’s Health Study, we showed that the proposed GOF two-phase sampling designs were unbiased and generally had higher efficiency compared to the standard case-cohort study designs. Conclusion In cohort studies with rare outcomes, an important design question is how to select informative subjects to reduce sampling costs while maintaining statistical efficiency. Our proposed goodness-of-fit two-phase design provides efficient alternatives to standard case-cohort designs for assessing the association between time-to-event outcome and risk factors. This method is conveniently implemented in standard software.

Obesity is known to be associated with primary liver cancer (PLC), but the separate effects of excess abdominal and gluteofemoral size are unclear. Thus, we examined the association between waist and hip circumference with risk of PLC overall and by histologic type-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). The Liver Cancer Pooling Project is a consortium of prospective cohort studies that include data from 1,167,244 individuals (PLC n = 2,208, HCC n = 1,154, ICC n = 335). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using proportional hazards regression. Waist circumference, per 5 cm increase, was associated with an 11% increased PLC risk (HR = 1.11, 95%CI: 1.09-1.14), including when adjusted for hip circumference (HR = 1.12, 95%CI: 1.08-1.17) and also when restricted to individuals in a normal body mass index (BMI) range (18.5 to

BackgroundIntrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) arises from cholangiocytes in the intrahepatic bile duct and is the second most common type of liver cancer. Cholangiocytes express both oestrogen receptor-α and -β, and oestrogens positively modulate cholangiocyte proliferation. Studies in women and men have reported higher circulating oestradiol is associated with increased ICC risk, further supporting a hormonal aetiology. However, no observational studies have examined the associations between exogenous hormone use and reproductive factors, as proxies of endogenous hormone levels, and risk of ICC.MethodsWe harmonised data from 1,107,498 women who enroled in 12 North American-based cohort studies (in the Liver Cancer Pooling Project, LCPP) and the UK Biobank between 1980-1998 and 2006-2010, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to generate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence internals (CI). Then, meta-analytic techniques were used to combine the estimates from the LCPP (n = 180 cases) and the UK Biobank (n = 57 cases).ResultsHysterectomy was associated with a doubling of ICC risk (HR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.27-3.09), compared to women aged 50-54 at natural menopause. Long-term oral contraceptive use (9+ years) was associated with a 62% increased ICC risk (HR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.03-2.55). There was no association between ICC risk and other exogenous hormone use or reproductive factors.ConclusionsThis study suggests that hysterectomy and long-term oral contraceptive use may be associated with an increased ICC risk.

Background & Aims: Incidence rates of liver cancer in most populations are two to three times higher among men than women. The higher rates among men have led to the suggestion that androgens are related to increased risk whereas oestrogens are related to decreased risk. This hypothesis was investigated in the present study via a nested case-control analysis of pre-diagnostic sex steroid hormone levels among men in five US cohorts. Methods: Concentrations of sex steroid hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin were quantitated using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry and a competitive electrochemiluminescence immunoassay, respectively. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for associations between hormones and liver cancer among 275 men who subsequently developed liver cancer and 768 comparison men. Results: Higher concentrations of total testosterone (OR per one-unit increase in log2 = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.38–2.29), dihydrotestosterone (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.21–2.57), oestrone (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.08-2.79), total oestradiol (OR = 1.58, 95% CI=1.22–20.05), and sex hormone-binding globulin (OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.27–2.11) were associated with increased risk. Higher concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), however, were associated with a 53% decreased risk (OR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.33–0.68). Conclusions: Higher concentrations of both androgens (testosterone, dihydrotestosterone) and their aromatised oestrogenic metabolites (oestrone, oestradiol) were observed among men who subsequently developed liver cancer compared with men who did not. As DHEA is an adrenal precursor of both androgens and oestrogens, these results may suggest that a lower capacity to convert DHEA to androgens, and their subsequent conversion to oestrogens, confers a lower risk of liver cancer, whereas a greater capacity to convert DHEA confers a greater risk. Impact and implications: This study does not fully support the current hormone hypothesis as both androgen and oestrogen levels were associated with increased risk of liver cancer among men. The study also found that higher DHEA levels were associated with lower risk, thus suggesting the hypothesis that greater capacity to convert DHEA could be associated with increased liver cancer risk among men.

Abstract Autoantibodies are present in healthy individuals and altered in chronic diseases. We used repeated samples collected from participants in the NYU Women’s Health Study to assess autoantibody reproducibility and repertoire stability over a one-year period using the HuProt array. We included two samples collected one year apart from each of 46 healthy women (92 samples). We also included eight blinded replicate samples to assess laboratory reproducibility. A total of 21,211 IgG and IgM autoantibodies were interrogated. Of those, 86% of IgG (n = 18,303) and 34% of IgM (n = 7,242) autoantibodies showed adequate lab reproducibility (coefficient of variation [CV] 0.8). Temporal reproducibility was lower after using quantile normalization suggesting that batch variability was not an important source of error, and that normalization removed some informative biological information. To our knowledge this study is the largest in terms of sample size and autoantibody numbers to assess autoantibody reproducibility in healthy women. The results suggest that for many autoantibodies a single measurement may be used to rank individuals in studies of autoantibodies as etiologic markers of disease.

Abstract Imbalances of blood biomarkers are associated with disease, and biomarkers may also vary non-pathologically across population groups. We described variation in concentrations of biomarkers of one-carbon metabolism, vitamin status, inflammation including tryptophan metabolism, and endothelial and renal function among cancer-free older adults. We analyzed 5167 cancer-free controls aged 40–80 years from 20 cohorts in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). Centralized biochemical analyses of 40 biomarkers in plasma or serum were performed. We fit multivariable linear mixed effects models to quantify variation in standardized biomarker log-concentrations across four factors: age, sex, smoking status, and body mass index (BMI). Differences in most biomarkers across most factors were small, with 93% (186/200) of analyses showing an estimated difference lower than 0.25 standard-deviations, although most were statistically significant due to large sample size. The largest difference was for creatinine by sex, which was − 0.91 standard-deviations lower in women than men (95%CI − 0.98; − 0.84). The largest difference by age was for total cysteine (0.40 standard-deviation increase per 10-year increase, 95%CI 0.36; 0.43), and by BMI was for C-reactive protein (0.38 standard-deviation increase per 5-kg/m2 increase, 95%CI 0.34; 0.41). For 31 of 40 markers, the mean difference between current and never smokers was larger than between former and never smokers. A statistically significant (p

Evidence from a small number of studies suggests that longer telomere length measured in peripheral leukocytes is associated with an increased risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). However, these studies may be biased by reverse causation, confounded by unmeasured environmental exposures and might miss time points for which prospective telomere measurement would best reveal a relationship between telomere length and NHL risk. We performed an analysis of genetically inferred telomere length and NHL risk in a study of 10 102 NHL cases of the four most common B-cell histologic types and 9562 controls using a genetic risk score (GRS) comprising nine telomere length-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms. This approach uses existing genotype data and estimates telomere length by weighing the number of telomere length-associated variant alleles an individual carries with the published change in kb of telomere length. The analysis of the telomere length GRS resulted in an association between longer telomere length and increased NHL risk [four B-cell histologic types combined; odds ratio (OR) = 1.49, 95% CI 1.22-1.82,P-value = 8.5 × 10(-5)]. Subtype-specific analyses indicated that chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL) was the principal NHL subtype contributing to this association (OR = 2.60, 95% CI 1.93-3.51,P-value = 4.0 × 10(-10)). Significant interactions were observed across strata of sex for CLL/SLL and marginal zone lymphoma subtypes as well as age for the follicular lymphoma subtype. Our results indicate that a genetic background that favors longer telomere length may increase NHL risk, particularly risk of CLL/SLL, and are consistent with earlier studies relating longer telomere length with increased NHL risk.

Background/Objectives Folates found in natural foods are thought to protect against cancer. However, folic acid (FA), a synthetic form of folate used in supplements and fortified foods, may increase breast cancer risk if present in unmetabolized form (UMFA) in the circulation. This study examined the associations of serum UMFA and 5-methyltetrahydrofolate (5-mTHF), the predominant form of circulating folate, with breast cancer risk. Subjects/Methods We conducted a nested case-control study in a prospective cohort. In total, 553 cases of invasive breast cancer, diagnosed before mandatory FA fortification of grain in the US in 1998, were individually-matched to 1059 controls. Serum UMFA and 5-mTHF were measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry in stored serum samples, and 5-mTHF was corrected for storage degradation. Results Serum UMFA was not associated with breast cancer risk: the percentage of women with detectable levels of UMFA was similar in cases and controls (18% and 20%, respectively; p = 0.46). Two tag-SNPs in the promoter region of the FA-metabolizing gene were also not associated with risk. There was a marginally significant inverse association of 5-mTHF.sub.corrected with breast cancer risk (odds ratio for the highest vs. lowest quintile = 0.69, 95% CI = 0.49 to 0.97; p.sub.trend = 0.08). Conclusions Circulating UMFA was not associated with breast cancer risk. These results apply to countries without mandatory FA food fortification. Studies are needed in countries with mandatory fortification, where levels of UMFA are much higher than in our study., Author(s): Karen L. Koenig [sup.1], Stephanie Scarmo [sup.1], Yelena Afanasyeva [sup.1], Tess V. Clendenen [sup.1], Per Magne Ueland [sup.2], Anne Zeleniuch-Jacquotte [sup.1] [sup.3] Author Affiliations: (1) Departments of Population Health [...]

Marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) is the third most common subtype of B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Here we perform a two-stage GWAS of 1,281 MZL cases and 7,127 controls of European ancestry and identify two independent loci near BTNL2 (rs9461741, P=3.95 × 10(-15)) and HLA-B (rs2922994, P=2.43 × 10(-9)) in the HLA region significantly associated with MZL risk. This is the first evidence that genetic variation in the major histocompatibility complex influences MZL susceptibility.

Diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common lymphoma subtype and is clinically aggressive. To identify genetic susceptibility loci for DLBCL, we conducted a meta-analysis of 3 new genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and 1 previous scan, totaling 3,857 cases and 7,666 controls of European ancestry, with additional genotyping of 9 promising SNPs in 1,359 cases and 4,557 controls. In our multi-stage analysis, five independent SNPs in four loci achieved genome-wide significance marked by rs116446171 at 6p25.3 (EXOC2; P = 2.33 × 10(-21)), rs2523607 at 6p21.33 (HLA-B; P = 2.40 × 10(-10)), rs79480871 at 2p23.3 (NCOA1; P = 4.23 × 10(-8)) and two independent SNPs, rs13255292 and rs4733601, at 8q24.21 (PVT1; P = 9.98 × 10(-13) and 3.63 × 10(-11), respectively). These data provide substantial new evidence for genetic susceptibility to this B cell malignancy and point to pathways involved in immune recognition and immune function in the pathogenesis of DLBCL.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of follicular lymphoma (FL) have previously identified human leukocyte antigen (HLA) gene variants. To identify additional FL susceptibility loci, we conducted a large-scale two-stage GWAS in 4,523 case subjects and 13,344 control subjects of European ancestry. Five non-HLA loci were associated with FL risk: 11q23.3 (rs4938573, p = 5.79 × 10(-20)) near CXCR5; 11q24.3 (rs4937362, p = 6.76 × 10(-11)) near ETS1; 3q28 (rs6444305, p = 1.10 × 10(-10)) in LPP; 18q21.33 (rs17749561, p = 8.28 × 10(-10)) near BCL2; and 8q24.21 (rs13254990, p = 1.06 × 10(-8)) near PVT1. In an analysis of the HLA region, we identified four linked HLA-DRβ1 multiallelic amino acids at positions 11, 13, 28, and 30 that were associated with FL risk (pomnibus = 4.20 × 10(-67) to 2.67 × 10(-70)). Additional independent signals included rs17203612 in HLA class II (odds ratio [OR(per-allele)] = 1.44; p = 4.59 × 10(-16)) and rs3130437 in HLA class I (OR(per-allele) = 1.23; p = 8.23 × 10(-9)). Our findings further expand the number of loci associated with FL and provide evidence that multiple common variants outside the HLA region make a significant contribution to FL risk.

BackgroundThe prevalence of class III obesity (body mass index [BMI]≥40 kg/m2) has increased dramatically in several countries and currently affects 6% of adults in the US, with uncertain impact on the risks of illness and death. Using data from a large pooled study, we evaluated the risk of death, overall and due to a wide range of causes, and years of life expectancy lost associated with class III obesity.Methods and findingsIn a pooled analysis of 20 prospective studies from the United States, Sweden, and Australia, we estimated sex- and age-adjusted total and cause-specific mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 persons per year) and multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for adults, aged 19-83 y at baseline, classified as obese class III (BMI 40.0-59.9 kg/m2) compared with those classified as normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m2). Participants reporting ever smoking cigarettes or a history of chronic disease (heart disease, cancer, stroke, or emphysema) on baseline questionnaires were excluded. Among 9,564 class III obesity participants, mortality rates were 856.0 in men and 663.0 in women during the study period (1976-2009). Among 304,011 normal-weight participants, rates were 346.7 and 280.5 in men and women, respectively. Deaths from heart disease contributed largely to the excess rates in the class III obesity group (rate differences = 238.9 and 132.8 in men and women, respectively), followed by deaths from cancer (rate differences = 36.7 and 62.3 in men and women, respectively) and diabetes (rate differences = 51.2 and 29.2 in men and women, respectively). Within the class III obesity range, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for total deaths and deaths due to heart disease, cancer, diabetes, nephritis/nephrotic syndrome/nephrosis, chronic lower respiratory disease, and influenza/pneumonia increased with increasing BMI. Compared with normal-weight BMI, a BMI of 40-44.9, 45-49.9, 50-54.9, and 55-59.9 kg/m2 was associated with an estimated 6.5 (95% CI: 5.7-7.3), 8.9 (95% CI: 7.4-10.4), 9.8 (95% CI: 7.4-12.2), and 13.7 (95% CI: 10.5-16.9) y of life lost. A limitation was that BMI was mainly ascertained by self-report.ConclusionsClass III obesity is associated with substantially elevated rates of total mortality, with most of the excess deaths due to heart disease, cancer, and diabetes, and major reductions in life expectancy compared with normal weight. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Background and objectiveSurvival of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma is limited and few prognostic factors are known. We conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify germline variants associated with survival in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.MethodsWe analysed overall survival in relation to single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) among 1005 patients from two large GWAS datasets, PanScan I and ChinaPC. Cox proportional hazards regression was used in an additive genetic model with adjustment for age, sex, clinical stage and the top four principal components of population stratification. The first stage included 642 cases of European ancestry (PanScan), from which the top SNPs (p≤10(-5)) were advanced to a joint analysis with 363 additional patients from China (ChinaPC).ResultsIn the first stage of cases of European descent, the top-ranked loci were at chromosomes 11p15.4, 18p11.21 and 1p36.13, tagged by rs12362504 (p=1.63×10(-7)), rs981621 (p=1.65×10(-7)) and rs16861827 (p=3.75×10(-7)), respectively. 131 SNPs with p≤10(-5) were advanced to a joint analysis with cases from the ChinaPC study. In the joint analysis, the top-ranked SNP was rs10500715 (minor allele frequency, 0.37; p=1.72×10(-7)) on chromosome 11p15.4, which is intronic to the SET binding factor 2 (SBF2) gene. The HR (95% CI) for death was 0.74 (0.66 to 0.84) in PanScan I, 0.79 (0.65 to 0.97) in ChinaPC and 0.76 (0.68 to 0.84) in the joint analysis.ConclusionsGermline genetic variation in the SBF2 locus was associated with overall survival in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma of European and Asian ancestry. This association should be investigated in additional large patient cohorts.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence is limited on the role of mid‐life Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet in late‐life subjective cognitive complaints (SCCs). METHODS: We included 5116 women (mean age in 1985–1991: 46 years) from the New York University Women's Health Study. SCCs were assessed from 2018 to 2020 (mean age: 79 years) by a 6‐item questionnaire. RESULTS: Compared to women in the bottom quartile of the DASH scores, the odds ratio (OR) for having two or more SCCs was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.70–0.99) for women in the top quartile of DASH scores at baseline (P for trend = 0.019). The association was similar with multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting to account for potential selection bias. The inverse association was stronger in women without a history of cancer (P for interaction = 0.003). DISCUSSION: Greater adherence to the DASH diet in mid‐life was associated with lower prevalence of late‐life SCCs in women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Models that accurately predict risk of breast cancer are needed to help younger women make decisions about when to begin screening. Premenopausal concentrations of circulating anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), a biomarker of ovarian reserve, and testosterone have been positively associated with breast cancer risk in prospective studies. We assessed whether adding AMH and/or testosterone to the Gail model improves its prediction performance for women aged 35–50. Methods In a nested case-control study including ten prospective cohorts (1762 invasive cases/1890 matched controls) with pre-diagnostic serum/plasma samples, we estimated relative risks (RR) for the biomarkers and Gail risk factors using conditional logistic regression and random-effects meta-analysis. Absolute risk models were developed using these RR estimates, attributable risk fractions calculated using the distributions of the risk factors in the cases from the consortium, and population-based incidence and mortality rates. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the discriminatory accuracy of the models with and without biomarkers. Results The AUC for invasive breast cancer including only the Gail risk factor variables was 55.3 (95% CI 53.4, 57.1). The AUC increased moderately with the addition of AMH (AUC 57.6, 95% CI 55.7, 59.5), testosterone (AUC 56.2, 95% CI 54.4, 58.1), or both (AUC 58.1, 95% CI 56.2, 59.9). The largest AUC improvement (4.0) was among women without a family history of breast cancer. Conclusions AMH and testosterone moderately increase the discriminatory accuracy of the Gail model among women aged 35–50. We observed the largest AUC increase for women without a family history of breast cancer, the group that would benefit most from improved risk prediction because early screening is already recommended for women with a family history.

Abstract Background Full-term pregnancy (FTP) at an early age confers long-term protection against breast cancer. Previously, we reported that a FTP imprints a specific gene expression profile in the breast of postmenopausal women. Herein, we evaluated gene expression changes induced by parity in the breast of premenopausal women. Methods Gene expression profiling of normal breast tissue from 30 nulliparous (NP) and 79 parous (P) premenopausal volunteers was performed using Affymetrix microarrays. In addition to a discovery/validation analysis, we conducted an analysis of gene expression differences in P vs. NP women as a function of time since last FTP. Finally, a laser capture microdissection substudy was performed to compare the gene expression profile in the whole breast biopsy with that in the epithelial and stromal tissues. Results Discovery/validation analysis identified 43 differentially expressed genes in P vs. NP breast. Analysis of expression as a function of time since FTP revealed 286 differentially expressed genes (238 up- and 48 downregulated) comparing all P vs. all NP, and/or P women whose last FTP was less than 5 years before biopsy vs. all NP women. The upregulated genes showed three expression patterns: (1) transient: genes upregulated after FTP but whose expression levels returned to NP levels. These genes were mainly related to immune response, specifically activation of T cells. (2) Long-term changing: genes upregulated following FTP, whose expression levels decreased with increasing time since FTP but did not return to NP levels. These were related to immune response and development. (3) Long-term constant: genes that remained upregulated in parous compared to nulliparous breast, independently of time since FTP. These were mainly involved in development/cell differentiation processes, and also chromatin remodeling. Lastly, we found that the gene expression in whole tissue was a weighted average of the expression in epithelial and stromal tissues. Conclusions Genes transiently activated by FTP may have a role in protecting the mammary gland against neoplastically transformed cells through activation of T cells. Furthermore, chromatin remodeling and cell differentiation, represented by the genes that are maintained upregulated long after the FTP, may be responsible for the lasting preventive effect against breast cancer.

Abstract Background Few published breast cancer (BC) risk prediction models consider the heterogeneity of predictor variables between estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) and negative (ER-) tumors. Using data from two large cohorts, we examined whether modeling this heterogeneity could improve prediction. Methods We built two models, for ER+ (ModelER+) and ER- tumors (ModelER-), respectively, in 281,330 women (51% postmenopausal at recruitment) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (the agreement between predicted and observed tumor risks) were assessed both internally and externally in 82,319 postmenopausal women from the Women’s Health Initiative study. We performed decision curve analysis to compare ModelER+ and the Gail model (ModelGail) regarding their applicability in risk assessment for chemoprevention. Results Parity, number of full-term pregnancies, age at first full-term pregnancy and body height were only associated with ER+ tumors. Menopausal status, age at menarche and at menopause, hormone replacement therapy, postmenopausal body mass index, and alcohol intake were homogeneously associated with ER+ and ER- tumors. Internal validation yielded a C-statistic of 0.64 for ModelER+ and 0.59 for ModelER-. External validation reduced the C-statistic of ModelER+ (0.59) and ModelGail (0.57). In external evaluation of calibration, ModelER+ outperformed the ModelGail: the former led to a 9% overestimation of the risk of ER+ tumors, while the latter yielded a 22% underestimation of the overall BC risk. Compared with the treat-all strategy, ModelER+ produced equal or higher net benefits irrespective of the benefit-to-harm ratio of chemoprevention, while ModelGail did not produce higher net benefits unless the benefit-to-harm ratio was below 50. The clinical applicability, i.e. the area defined by the net benefit curve and the treat-all and treat-none strategies, was 12.7 × 10− 6 for ModelER+ and 3.0 × 10− 6 for ModelGail. Conclusions Modeling heterogeneous epidemiological risk factors might yield little improvement in BC risk prediction. Nevertheless, a model specifically predictive of ER+ tumor risk could be more applicable than an omnibus model in risk assessment for chemoprevention.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have previously identified 13 loci associated with risk of chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL). To identify additional CLL susceptibility loci, we conducted the largest meta-analysis for CLL thus far, including four GWAS with a total of 3,100 individuals with CLL (cases) and 7,667 controls. In the meta-analysis, we identified ten independent associated SNPs in nine new loci at 10q23.31 (ACTA2 or FAS (ACTA2/FAS), P=1.22×10(-14)), 18q21.33 (BCL2, P=7.76×10(-11)), 11p15.5 (C11orf21, P=2.15×10(-10)), 4q25 (LEF1, P=4.24×10(-10)), 2q33.1 (CASP10 or CASP8 (CASP10/CASP8), P=2.50×10(-9)), 9p21.3 (CDKN2B-AS1, P=1.27×10(-8)), 18q21.32 (PMAIP1, P=2.51×10(-8)), 15q15.1 (BMF, P=2.71×10(-10)) and 2p22.2 (QPCT, P=1.68×10(-8)), as well as an independent signal at an established locus (2q13, ACOXL, P=2.08×10(-18)). We also found evidence for two additional promising loci below genome-wide significance at 8q22.3 (ODF1, P=5.40×10(-8)) and 5p15.33 (TERT, P=1.92×10(-7)). Although further studies are required, the proximity of several of these loci to genes involved in apoptosis suggests a plausible underlying biological mechanism.

PurposeThe evidence of a relation between folate intake and one-carbon metabolism (OCM) with pancreatic cancer (PanCa) is inconsistent. In this study, the association between genes and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) related to OCM and PanCa was assessed.MethodsUsing biochemical knowledge of the OCM pathway, we identified thirty-seven genes and 834 SNPs to examine in association with PanCa. Our study included 1,408 cases and 1,463 controls nested within twelve cohorts (PanScan). The ten SNPs and five genes with lowest p values (

PurposeDiabetes is a suspected risk factor for pancreatic cancer, but questions remain about whether it is a risk factor or a result of the disease. This study prospectively examined the association between diabetes and the risk of pancreatic adenocarcinoma in pooled data from the NCI pancreatic cancer cohort consortium (PanScan).MethodsThe pooled data included 1,621 pancreatic adenocarcinoma cases and 1,719 matched controls from twelve cohorts using a nested case-control study design. Subjects who were diagnosed with diabetes near the time (

Gliomas account for approximately 80 % of all primary malignant brain tumors and, despite improvements in clinical care over the last 20 years, remain among the most lethal tumors, underscoring the need for gaining new insights that could translate into clinical advances. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified seven new susceptibility regions. We conducted a new independent GWAS of glioma using 1,856 cases and 4,955 controls (from 14 cohort studies, 3 case-control studies, and 1 population-based case-only study) and found evidence of strong replication for three of the seven previously reported associations at 20q13.33 (RTEL), 5p15.33 (TERT), and 9p21.3 (CDKN2BAS), and consistent association signals for the remaining four at 7p11.2 (EGFR both loci), 8q24.21 (CCDC26) and 11q23.3 (PHLDB1). The direction and magnitude of the signal were consistent for samples from cohort and case-control studies, but the strength of the association was more pronounced for loci rs6010620 (20q,13.33; RTEL) and rs2736100 (5p15.33, TERT) in cohort studies despite the smaller number of cases in this group, likely due to relatively more higher grade tumors being captured in the cohort studies. We further examined the 85 most promising single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers identified in our study in three replication sets (5,015 cases and 11,601 controls), but no new markers reached genome-wide significance. Our findings suggest that larger studies focusing on novel approaches as well as specific tumor subtypes or subgroups will be required to identify additional common susceptibility loci for glioma risk.

Four loci have been associated with pancreatic cancer through genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Pathway-based analysis of GWAS data is a complementary approach to identify groups of genes or biological pathways enriched with disease-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) whose individual effect sizes may be too small to be detected by standard single-locus methods. We used the adaptive rank truncated product method in a pathway-based analysis of GWAS data from 3851 pancreatic cancer cases and 3934 control participants pooled from 12 cohort studies and 8 case-control studies (PanScan). We compiled 23 biological pathways hypothesized to be relevant to pancreatic cancer and observed a nominal association between pancreatic cancer and five pathways (P < 0.05), i.e. pancreatic development, Helicobacter pylori lacto/neolacto, hedgehog, Th1/Th2 immune response and apoptosis (P = 2.0 × 10(-6), 1.6 × 10(-5), 0.0019, 0.019 and 0.023, respectively). After excluding previously identified genes from the original GWAS in three pathways (NR5A2, ABO and SHH), the pancreatic development pathway remained significant (P = 8.3 × 10(-5)), whereas the others did not. The most significant genes (P < 0.01) in the five pathways were NR5A2, HNF1A, HNF4G and PDX1 for pancreatic development; ABO for H.pylori lacto/neolacto; SHH for hedgehog; TGFBR2 and CCL18 for Th1/Th2 immune response and MAPK8 and BCL2L11 for apoptosis. Our results provide a link between inherited variation in genes important for pancreatic development and cancer and show that pathway-based approaches to analysis of GWAS data can yield important insights into the collective role of genetic risk variants in cancer.

BackgroundSubjects with non-O ABO blood group alleles have increased risk of pancreatic cancer. Glycosyltransferase activity is greater for the A(1) versus A(2) variant, whereas O01 and O02 variants are nonfunctioning. We hypothesized: 1) A(1) allele would confer greater risk than A(2) allele, 2) protective effect of the O allele would be equivalent for O01 and O02 variants, 3) secretor phenotype would modify the association with risk.MethodsWe determined ABO variants and secretor phenotype from single nucleotide polymorphisms in ABO and FUT2 genes in 1,533 cases and 1,582 controls from 12 prospective cohort studies. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) for pancreatic cancer were calculated using logistic regression.ResultsAn increased risk was observed in participants with A(1) but not A(2) alleles. Compared with subjects with genotype O/O, genotypes A(2)/O, A(2)/A(1), A(1)/O, and A(1)/A(1) had ORs of 0.96 (95% CI, 0.72-1.26), 1.46 (95% CI, 0.98-2.17), 1.48 (95% CI, 1.23-1.78), and 1.71 (95% CI, 1.18-2.47). Risk was similar for O01 and O02 variant O alleles. Compared with O01/O01, the ORs for each additional allele of O02, A(1), and A(2) were 1.00 (95% CI, 0.87-1.14), 1.38 (95% CI, 1.20-1.58), and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.77-1.20); P, O01 versus O02 = 0.94, A(1) versus A(2) = 0.004. Secretor phenotype was not an effect modifier (P-interaction = 0.63).ConclusionsAmong participants in a large prospective cohort consortium, ABO allele subtypes corresponding to increased glycosyltransferase activity were associated with increased pancreatic cancer risk.ImpactThese data support the hypothesis that ABO glycosyltransferase activity influences pancreatic cancer risk rather than actions of other nearby genes on chromosome 9q34.

A family history of pancreatic cancer has consistently been associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer. However, uncertainty remains about the strength of this association. Results from previous studies suggest a family history of select cancers (i.e., ovarian, breast and colorectal) could also be associated, although not as strongly, with increased risk of pancreatic cancer. We examined the association between a family history of 5 types of cancer (pancreas, prostate, ovarian, breast and colorectal) and risk of pancreatic cancer using data from a collaborative nested case-control study conducted by the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium. Cases and controls were from cohort studies from the United States, Europe and China, and a case-control study from the Mayo Clinic. Analyses of family history of pancreatic cancer included 1,183 cases and 1,205 controls. A family history of pancreatic cancer in a parent, sibling or child was associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer [multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) = 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.19-2.61]. A family history of prostate cancer was also associated with increased risk (OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.12-1.89). There were no statistically significant associations with a family history of ovarian cancer (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.52-1.31), breast cancer (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 0.97-1.51) or colorectal cancer (OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.93-1.47). Our results confirm a moderate sized association between a family history of pancreatic cancer and risk of pancreatic cancer and also provide evidence for an association with a family history of prostate cancer worth further study.

The literature has consistently reported no association between low to moderate alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer; however, a few studies have shown that high levels of intake may increase risk. Most single studies have limited power to detect associations even in the highest alcohol intake categories or to examine associations by alcohol type. We analyzed these associations using 1,530 pancreatic cancer cases and 1,530 controls from the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan) nested case-control study. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. We observed no significant overall association between total alcohol (ethanol) intake and pancreatic cancer risk (OR = 1.38, 95% CI = 0.86-2.23, for 60 or more g/day vs. >0 to

BackgroundObesity has been proposed as a risk factor for pancreatic cancer.MethodsPooled data were analyzed from the National Cancer Institute Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan) to study the association between prediagnostic anthropometric measures and risk of pancreatic cancer. PanScan applied a nested case-control study design and included 2170 cases and 2209 control subjects. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression for cohort-specific quartiles of body mass index (BMI [calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared]), weight, height, waist circumference, and waist to hip ratio as well as conventional BMI categories (underweight, or = 35.0). Models were adjusted for potential confounders.ResultsIn all of the participants, a positive association between increasing BMI and risk of pancreatic cancer was observed (adjusted OR for the highest vs lowest BMI quartile, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.12-1.58; P(trend) < .001). In men, the adjusted OR for pancreatic cancer for the highest vs lowest quartile of BMI was 1.33 (95% CI, 1.04-1.69; P(trend) < .03), and in women it was 1.34 (95% CI, 1.05-1.70; P(trend) = .01). Increased waist to hip ratio was associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer in women (adjusted OR for the highest vs lowest quartile, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.31-2.69; P(trend) = .003) but less so in men.ConclusionsThese findings provide strong support for a positive association between BMI and pancreatic cancer risk. In addition, centralized fat distribution may increase pancreatic cancer risk, especially in women.

We conducted a genome-wide association study of pancreatic cancer in 3,851 affected individuals (cases) and 3,934 unaffected controls drawn from 12 prospective cohort studies and 8 case-control studies. Based on a logistic regression model for genotype trend effect that was adjusted for study, age, sex, self-described ancestry and five principal components, we identified eight SNPs that map to three loci on chromosomes 13q22.1, 1q32.1 and 5p15.33. Two correlated SNPs, rs9543325 (P = 3.27 x 10(-11), per-allele odds ratio (OR) 1.26, 95% CI 1.18-1.35) and rs9564966 (P = 5.86 x 10(-8), per-allele OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.13-1.30), map to a nongenic region on chromosome 13q22.1. Five SNPs on 1q32.1 map to NR5A2, and the strongest signal was at rs3790844 (P = 2.45 x 10(-10), per-allele OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.71-0.84). A single SNP, rs401681 (P = 3.66 x 10(-7), per-allele OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.11-1.27), maps to the CLPTM1L-TERT locus on 5p15.33, which is associated with multiple cancers. Our study has identified common susceptibility loci for pancreatic cancer that warrant follow-up studies.

Genetic variants associated with susceptibility to pancreatic cancer have been identified using genome wide association studies (GWAS). Here, the authors combine data from over 9000 patients and perform a meta-analysis to identify five novel loci linked to pancreatic cancer.

A recent genome-wide association study (PanScan) identified significant associations at the ABO gene locus with risk of pancreatic cancer, but the influence of specific ABO genotypes remains unknown. We determined ABO genotypes (OO, AO, AA, AB, BO, and BB) in 1,534 cases and 1,583 controls from 12 prospective cohorts in PanScan, grouping participants by genotype-derived serologic blood type (O, A, AB, and B). Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for pancreatic cancer by ABO alleles were calculated using logistic regression. Compared with blood type O, the ORs for pancreatic cancer in subjects with types A, AB, and B were 1.38 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.18-1.62], 1.47 (95% CI, 1.07-2.02), and 1.53 (95% CI, 1.21-1.92), respectively. The incidence rates for blood types O, A, AB, and B were 28.9, 39.9, 41.8, and 44.5 cases per 100,000 subjects per year. An increase in risk was noted with the addition of each non-O allele. Compared with OO genotype, subjects with AO and AA genotype had ORs of 1.33 (95% CI, 1.13-1.58) and 1.61 (95% CI, 1.22-2.18), whereas subjects with BO and BB genotypes had ORs of 1.45 (95% CI, 1.14-1.85) and 2.42 (1.28-4.57). The population attributable fraction for non-O blood type was 19.5%. In a joint model with smoking, current smokers with non-O blood type had an adjusted OR of 2.68 (95% CI, 2.03-3.54) compared with nonsmokers of blood type O. We concluded that ABO genotypes were significantly associated with pancreatic cancer risk.