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Knowledge-based evidence about potential and existing rainfed cropping is crucial for decision-making for sustainable land use and food security. Using multi-criteria spatial analysis techniques, this study assessed the current status of cropland availability and projected impacts on future crop production in Ethiopia. The study primarily defined the extent of the Rainfed Cropping Area (RCA) and assessed the performances of different cropping practices. After precisely mapping cultivated area, cropping intensification potentials were estimated. Subsequently, disregarding the existing cultivated area, completely unsuitable areas, and protected and intact forest areas, the potentially available arable land using suitability analysis techniques was determined. In addition, the performance of existing crop production systems was evaluated against the natural potential. The findings reveal that RCA covers ~60% of the country's landmass, of which cropping is practiced in only 33%. The coverage of Potentially Available Cropland (yet uncultivated) accounts for 16% of the country's RCA. This is dominantly located in sparsely populated western and southwestern parts of the country. This study confirms that Horizontal Cropping Intensification (HCI) in the RCA of Ethiopia reaches only 33%. On the other hand, Vertical Cropping Intensification (VCI) practices cover only 10%, while about 1/3 of the RCA is suitable for VCI strategies at various levels of suitability. The performance of existing VCI-oriented cropping (which covers only 10% of the RCA) is very poor. Challenges to the use of the available cropland and ways of addressing land shortage for needy farmers are highlighted to inform efforts to readdress landlessness and food insecurity in Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of grain production performance can provide reference information to explore multiple cropping options and further improve the resource use efficiency of farming methods. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of grain production performance and efficiency of major crop production systems (CPS) in the Ethiopia's Blue Nile Basin. The results show that only 39% of the basin is currently cultivated, although a significant cropland expansion (10%) was recorded between 1985 and 2020. The study identified 11 major CPS, mostly practiced in the basin. Of these, single cropping based on the main rainy season (Meher-Only) covers the largest area (26%), followed by Meher-Residual-Intermittent (12%) and Meher-Belg-Dependable (11%). Extended-Meher, Meher-Residual-Dependable, Meher-Residual-Intermittent, and Meher-Belg-Dependable are the four more powerful CPS with higher efficiency. Comparatively, CPS practiced in Wet-Woyna-Dega and Wet-Dega have better overall performance. Findings confirm that agricultural space management (land) and green-water (rainfall) utilization are the most influential factors, followed by land use planning and land use systems (CPS) invention. As landscape suitability for grain production governs future performance, in the low elevation and flood plains parts of the basin, the possibility of creating additional space into the food system is very high. In mountainous and high-altitude regions, the efficiency of grain production will decrease because incorporating additional arable land into the food system is trivial. In the last three decades, in BNB, only 10% of arable land (equivalent to 30 million quintals of food) has been added to the good system, which can support approximately 6 million people. Compared to the population growth of the basin (12 million 1985–2020), its contribution to the food system was less than 50%. This confirms that multiple cropping systems, such as Residual moisture-based CPS, have played a significant role in boosting the food system in the basin. Therefore, improving grain production performance/efficiency requires targeted investments, including the invention of more adaptable crop varieties, efficient cropping practices, and the introduction of advanced agricultural space and water management technologies. The results of the study will help identify important policy gaps and suggest possible options to enhance residual farming and other multiple cropping systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last two decades, smallholder farmers in north-western Ethiopia have expanded eucalyptus fields into large areas of croplands until they recently started to reverse that trend. This study assessed the extent, drivers, and impacts of cropland to eucalyptus plantation changes during the 2000–2023 period and the recent land use reversal eucalyptus to cropland. It also analyzed the effect of the shift on land productivity and food security by comparing maize yields obtained from eucalyptus-cleared fields with those from permanent croplands. The assessment was conducted in the north-western highlands of Ethiopia and employed remote sensing techniques, yield difference comparisons, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Landsat-and Sentinel 2A-based multi-temporal image analyses were used to identify and map the coverage of eucalyptus plantation since 2000. Maize yield per plot was collected from 125 systematically selected paired 2mX2m plots, and yield differences were compared. One of the paired plots represented eucalyptus-cereal field changes, while the second represented cropland-maize plots. The multi-temporal image analysis result showed that eucalyptus plantation coverage was increased from 1000 ha in 2000 to 249,260 ha in 2023. Approximately 98% of that expansion was made onto crop fields. Latter, a large portion of that area was reconverted to cropland, mainly maize field due to substantial falls of market demand for eucalyptus logs. The oscillating land use changes imply that smallholders' land use decisions are informed by intrinsic and extrinsic economic considerations, not by scientific-evidence-based landscape suitability and ecological analyses. Moreover, to check the effects of eucalyptus on subsequent productivity of croplands, we compared maize yield differences between cropland-maize and eucalyptus-maize field plots. The yield comparison result showed 35% average yield increment from eucalyptus-maize plots than yields from cropland-maize plots. This finding tends to defy the widely held perception that 'growing eucalyptus tree plants on farmlands negatively affects the subsequent productivity of those plots'. However, this finding was based on a 1-year cross-sectional data. Further cross-sectional studies are important to arrive at conclusive results on the impacts of eucalyptus trees on productivity of those plots when converted to croplands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Policies regulating common-pool resources (CPR), such as wetlands, should take into account community socio-economic realities and community perceptions. The study aims to examine whether policies regulating common-pool resources, such as wetlands, should take into account community socio-economic realities and community perceptions. Specifically, it characterized Ethiopian farm households in the Amhara Region and household-head perceptions of six factors related to sustainable wetland management. Surveys were given to 385 respondents from five administrative units or kebeles (kebele is the smallest administrative unit). Focus-group discussions followed. All respondents were Orthodox Christians, and men constituted 93% of household heads. Kebeles differed significantly for household-head age and education, but overall education level was low. Most households had three or four children. Overall, the mean farm area was 0.89 ha, but within kebeles, mean areas ranged from 1.35 to 0.80 ha. Kidest Hana was the most successful kebele for farm size and yield. Significant differences existed among kebele farms for percentages of harvested crops sold, suggesting some were less food-secure. Data suggested male household-head farms had twice the area of female-head farms, older household heads had more land than younger ones, heads with more education had more children, and married heads had more land than divorced or unmarried heads. None felt that people outside their kebele should access their natural resources. Overall, 85% thought land ownership was communal, and 15% thought it was private. A plurality (44%) did not know who oversaw land management. None knew of any organizations working on sustainable wetland management, but most (75%) wanted to attend meetings on the subject. No farm used mechanized agriculture. Most (87%) had not abandoned alternative crops to produce more rice. Therefore, as a conclusion, every effort needs to be taken to address this socio-ecological and development challenge that faces Fogera wetlands and larger national and international impacts to achieve balanced and sustainable development. Hence, our study highlights the need for better education, leadership, and policies regarding sustainable wetland management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]