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La Strategia di Transizione Climatica (STC) “Bosco Clima. Contrastare l'effetto domino dei cambiamenti climatici” è stata redatta nell’ambito del progetto di Fondazione Cariplo “F2C - Fondazione Cariplo per il Clima” dai partner di progetto e con il supporto tecnico-scientifico di Eurac Research. La STC-Bosco Clima si sviluppa in una porzione del territorio di competenza della Comunità Montana Valli del Verbano e dell’Ente Parco Campo dei Fiori, in provincia di Varese. L’area di progetto comprende il bacino del fiume Boesio (Valcuvia), il bacino del Margorabbia (Valtravaglia) e il versante meridionale del monte Campo dei Fiori. L’area si caratterizza per due massicci montuosi prealpini divisi dalle due valli principali in cui predominano le superfici boscate e in cui i centri urbani, di piccola e media dimensione, risultano concentrati in massima parte nei fondivalle, alle quote inferiori. La STC-Bosco Clima è nata dalla volontà degli enti che operano sul territorio - Comunità Montana Valli del Verbano, Ente Parco regionale Campo dei Fiori, Università degli Studi dell’Insubria, Società Schiaparelli - Centro Geofisico Prealpino, CAST e LIPU – di capitalizzare le esperienze pregresse in ambito di gestione forestale, idraulica, naturalistica e di sfruttare l’ottima collaborazione per lavorare intorno ad un progetto comune e condiviso di mitigazione e adattamento del territorio (fiumi, versanti montuosi e habitat di interesse per la biodiversità) ai cambiamenti climatici (CC). I fenomeni con cui si manifestano con maggior evidenza gli effetti dei CC nell’area di progetto si possono circoscrivere all’aumento sia degli eventi estremi di pioggia, vento e grandine sia dei casi di dissesto idrogeologico. Tali fenomeni determinano di riflesso una incidenza negativa sull’ambiente naturale e sulla biodiversità locale. L’elevata presenza di sistemi verdi, soprattutto forestali, esclude il territorio di progetto dal problema delle ondate di calore che invece interessano pericolosamente le aree urbane. La STC-Bosco Clima ha la finalità di pensare al futuro del territorio interessato in chiave resiliente e pro-ambientale partendo dalla risorsa chiave, il bosco, come strumento di mitigazione e adattamento ai CC. Il bosco è un habitat diventato fragile e attaccabile sia a causa di comportamenti umani diretti, quali l’abbandono colturale, sia a causa degli effetti dei CC. La STC-Bosco Clima, quindi, ha come obiettivo principale la risoluzione di problematiche riconducibili ai CC e legate al bosco e ai servizi ecosistemici ad esso collegati (qualità dell’aria e dell’acqua, assetto idrogeologico, biodiversità forestale) e di adattare il territorio ai futuri problemi che il CC genererà, promuovendo la cittadinanza attiva e l’informazione, strumenti rilevanti di cambiamento sociale.

Shifting from effect-oriented toward cause-oriented and systemic approaches in sustainable climate change adaptation requires a solid understanding of the climate-related and societal causes behind climate risks. Thus, capturing, systemizing, and prioritizing factors contributing to climate risks are essential for developing cause-oriented climate risk and vulnerability assessments (CRVA). Impact chains (IC) are conceptual models used to capture hazard, vulnerability, and exposure factors that lead to a specific risk. IC modeling includes a participatory stakeholder phase and an operational quantification phase. Although ICs are widely implemented to systematically capture risk processes, they still show methodological gaps concerning, for example, the integration of dynamic feedback or balanced stakeholder involvement. Such gaps usually only become apparent in practical applications, and there is currently no systematic perspective on common challenges and methodological needs. Therefore, we reviewed 47 articles applying IC and similar CRVA methods that consider the cause–effect dynamics governing risk. We provide an overview of common challenges and opportunities as a roadmap for future improvements. We conclude that IC should move from a linear-like to an impact web–like representation of risk to integrate cause–effect dynamics. Qualitative approaches are based on significant stakeholder involvement to capture expert-, place-, and context-specific knowledge. The integration of IC into quantifiable, executable models is still highly underexplored because of a limited understanding of systems, data, evaluation options, and other uncertainties. Ultimately, using IC to capture the underlying complex processes behind risk supports effective, long-term, and sustainable climate change adaptation.

The overall aim of WP5.1 is to synthesize and consolidate findings and methods gained in the UNCHAIN project, i.e. in the previous WPs. It brings together the insights gained in the case studies to develop a consolidated validation method (with a focus on impact chains (IC) and science-user interface) and identify opportunities for changes in adaptation decision making in Europe and beyond. Furthermore, it reflects on the process of stakeholder engagement and knowledge co-production to bridge the gap between climate science, policy and practice, and how related strategies could be improved. Specifically, this deliverable sets the basis for the validation and synthesis process to be carried out in WP5, with the aim to develop the following deliverables: D5.2 - Improved and adapted impact chain method (Guidebook and reflection on insights and lessons learnt) [as journal article and public report] D5.3. - Recommendations for improved adaptation decision making and policy [as policy brief] Therefore, this deliverable serves internal purposes to guide the validation process. It has been developed at an early-stage of WP5 to allow its uptake already during the case study research activities and its possible continuous update and evolvement during the remaining months of UNCHAIN.

Purpose: This paper aims to present the “Vulnerability Sourcebook” methodology, a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning. The Vulnerability Sourcebook has been developed for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and has been applied in more than twenty countries worldwide. Design/methodology/approach: It is based on a participative development of so-called climate impact chains, which are an analytical concept to better understand, systemise and prioritise the climate factors as well as environmental and socio-economic factors that drive climate related threats, vulnerabilities and risks in a specific system. Impact chains serve as the backbone for an operational climate vulnerability assessment with indicators based on quantitative approaches (data, models) combined with expert assessments. In this paper, the authors present the concept and applications of the original Vulnerability Sourcebook, published in 2015, which was based on the IPCC AR4 concept of climate vulnerability. In Section 6 of this paper, the authors report how this concept has been adapted to the current IPCC AR5 concept of climate risks. Findings: The application of the Sourcebook is demonstrated in three case studies in Bolivia, Pakistan and Burundi. The results indicate that particularly the participative development of impact chains helped with generating a common picture on climate vulnerabilities and commitment for adaptation planning within a region. The mixed methods approach (considering quantitative and qualitative information) allows for a flexible application in different contexts. Challenges are mainly the availability of climate (change) and socio-economic data, as well as the transparency of value-based decisions in the process. Originality/value: The Vulnerability Sourcebook offers a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning.

The case study aims to assess the risk of agricultural drought in the province of Salzburg. The study utilizes various methods such as impact chains, stakeholder dialogues, workshops, and a quantitative risk assessment that co-develops the drivers of drought and adapts accordingly. The study applies causal loop diagrams, integrates systems modelling approaches, and uses a spatial regionalization approach that is independent of administrative boundaries. The study is at the beginning of adaptation planning and focuses on gathering qualitative data through stakeholder interactions and quantitative data from open government data portals. The expected results are spatial risk maps, insights on stakeholder consultation, and an improved methodology of impact chains. The case study takes into consideration various stakeholders including governmental institutions, farmer associations, farmers, insurance representatives, and scientists. The objective is to assess the drought risk in the municipality of Salzburg by taking into account not just the negative water balance but also procedural, financial, political and environmental aspects. The results are intended to raise awareness among the stakeholders and provide a holistic perspective on the risk aspects. The assessment focuses on the future risk and assesses if the probability of dry and wet years will increase between 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to 1981-2010.