114 results on '"Zbigniew Palmowski"'
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2. Time-dependent probability density function for partial resetting dynamics
- Author
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Costantino Di Bello, Aleksei V Chechkin, Alexander K Hartmann, Zbigniew Palmowski, and Ralf Metzler
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diffusion ,stochastic resetting ,Levy flight ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Abstract
Stochastic resetting is a rapidly developing topic in the field of stochastic processes and their applications. It denotes the occasional reset of a diffusing particle to its starting point and effects, inter alia, optimal first-passage times to a target. Recently the concept of partial resetting, in which the particle is reset to a given fraction of the current value of the process, has been established and the associated search behaviour analysed. Here we go one step further and we develop a general technique to determine the time-dependent probability density function (PDF) for Markov processes with partial resetting. We obtain an exact representation of the PDF in the case of general symmetric Lévy flights with stable index $0\lt\alpha\leqslant2$ . For Cauchy and Brownian motions (i.e. $\alpha = 1,2$ ), this PDF can be expressed in terms of elementary functions in position space. We also determine the stationary PDF. Our numerical analysis of the PDF demonstrates intricate crossover behaviours as function of time.
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- 2023
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3. How Much We Gain by Surplus-Dependent Premiums—Asymptotic Analysis of Ruin Probability
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Jing Wang, Zbigniew Palmowski, and Corina Constantinescu
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ruin probability ,premiums dependent on reserves ,risk process ,Erlang distribution ,Insurance ,HG8011-9999 - Abstract
In this paper, we generate boundary value problems for ruin probabilities of surplus-dependent premium risk processes, under a renewal case scenario, Erlang (2) claim arrivals, and a hypoexponential claims scenario, Erlang (2) claim sizes. Applying the approximation theory of solutions of linear ordinary differential equations, we derive the asymptotics of the ruin probabilities when the initial reserve tends to infinity. When considering premiums that are linearly dependent on reserves, representing, for instance, returns on risk-free investments of the insurance capital, we firstly derive explicit solutions of the ordinary differential equations under considerations, in terms of special mathematical functions and integrals, from which we can further determine their asymptotics. This allows us to recover the ruin probabilities obtained for general premiums dependent on reserves. We compare them with the asymptotics of the equivalent ruin probabilities when the premium rate is fixed over time, to measure the gain generated by this additional mechanism of binding the premium rates with the amount of reserve owned by the insurance company.
- Published
- 2021
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4. Distributional Properties of Fluid Queues Busy Period and First Passage Times
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Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
fluid queue ,busy period ,IFR and DFR distributions ,Laplace transform ,Mathematics ,QA1-939 - Abstract
In this paper, I analyze the distributional properties of the busy period in an on-off fluid queue and the first passage time in a fluid queue driven by a finite state Markov process. In particular, I show that the first passage time has a IFR distribution and the busy period in the Anick-Mitra-Sondhi model has a DFR distribution.
- Published
- 2020
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5. A Note on Simulation Pricing of π-Options
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Zbigniew Palmowski and Tomasz Serafin
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π-option ,American-type option ,optimal stopping ,Monte Carlo simulation ,Insurance ,HG8011-9999 - Abstract
In this work, we adapt a Monte Carlo algorithm introduced by Broadie and Glasserman in 1997 to price a π-option. This method is based on the simulated price tree that comes from discretization and replication of possible trajectories of the underlying asset’s price. As a result, this algorithm produces the lower and the upper bounds that converge to the true price with the increasing depth of the tree. Under specific parametrization, this π-option is related to relative maximum drawdown and can be used in the real market environment to protect a portfolio against volatile and unexpected price drops. We also provide some numerical analysis.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. Optimal Portfolio Selection in an Itô–Markov Additive Market
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Zbigniew Palmowski, Łukasz Stettner, and Anna Sulima
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Markov additive processes ,Markov regime switching market ,Markovian jump securities ,asymptotic arbitrage ,complete market ,optimal portfolio ,Insurance ,HG8011-9999 - Abstract
We study a portfolio selection problem in a continuous-time Itô–Markov additive market with prices of financial assets described by Markov additive processes that combine Lévy processes and regime switching models. Thus, the model takes into account two sources of risk: the jump diffusion risk and the regime switching risk. For this reason, the market is incomplete. We complete the market by enlarging it with the use of a set of Markovian jump securities, Markovian power-jump securities and impulse regime switching securities. Moreover, we give conditions under which the market is asymptotic-arbitrage-free. We solve the portfolio selection problem in the Itô–Markov additive market for the power utility and the logarithmic utility.
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- 2019
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7. Ruin Probabilities with Dependence on the Number of Claims within a Fixed Time Window
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Corina Constantinescu, Suhang Dai, Weihong Ni, and Zbigniew Palmowski
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regenerative risk process ,ruin probability ,subexponential distribution ,Cramér asymptotics ,importance sampling ,crude Monte Carlo ,Markov additive process ,Insurance ,HG8011-9999 - Abstract
We analyse the ruin probabilities for a renewal insurance risk process with inter-arrival times depending on the claims that arrive within a fixed (past) time window. This dependence could be explained through a regenerative structure. The main inspiration of the model comes from the bonus-malus (BM) feature of pricing car insurance. We discuss first the asymptotic results of ruin probabilities for different regimes of claim distributions. For numerical results, we recognise an embedded Markov additive process, and via an appropriate change of measure, ruin probabilities could be computed to a closed-form formulae. Additionally, we employ the importance sampling simulations to derive ruin probabilities, which further permit an in-depth analysis of a few concrete cases.
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- 2016
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8. Ruin probabilities for risk process in a regime-switching environment
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Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Economics and Econometrics ,Mathematics::Probability ,Distribution (number theory) ,Markov chain ,Risk process ,Mathematics::Optimization and Control ,Time horizon ,Statistical physics ,Regime switching ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,Mathematics - Abstract
In this paper we give few expressions and asymptotics of ruin probabilities for a Markov modulated risk process for various regimes of a time horizon, initial reserves and a claim size distribution. We also consider few versions of the ruin time.
- Published
- 2021
9. Two-Dimensional Fluid Queues with Temporary Assistance.
- Author
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Guy Latouche, Giang T. Nguyen 0003, and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Published
- 2011
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10. Two-buffer fluid models with multiple ON-OFF inputs and threshold assistance.
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Guy Latouche, Giang Nguyen 0003, and Zbigniew Palmowski
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- 2011
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11. First exit time for a discrete-time parallel queue
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Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Computational Theory and Mathematics ,Management Science and Operations Research ,Computer Science Applications - Published
- 2022
12. A multiplicative version of the Lindley recursion
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Onno Boxma, Michel Mandjes, Andreas Löpker, Zbigniew Palmowski, Stochastics (KDV, FNWI), and Stochastic Operations Research
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Physics ,Laplace transform ,Probability (math.PR) ,05 social sciences ,Multiplicative function ,050301 education ,Recursion (computer science) ,Order (ring theory) ,Management Science and Operations Research ,01 natural sciences ,Computer Science Applications ,Combinatorics ,010104 statistics & probability ,Wiener–Hopf boundary value problem ,Computational Theory and Mathematics ,Autoregressive models ,FOS: Mathematics ,0101 mathematics ,0503 education ,Computer communication networks ,Random variable ,Lindley recursion ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of the stochastic recursion $$W_{i+1} = [V_iW_i+Y_i]^+$$ W i + 1 = [ V i W i + Y i ] + that can be interpreted as an autoregressive process of order 1, reflected at 0. We start our exposition by a discussion of the model’s stability condition. Writing $$Y_i=B_i-A_i$$ Y i = B i - A i , for independent sequences of nonnegative i.i.d. random variables $$\{A_i\}_{i\in {\mathbb N}_0}$$ { A i } i ∈ N 0 and $$\{B_i\}_{i\in {\mathbb N}_0}$$ { B i } i ∈ N 0 , and assuming $$\{V_i\}_{i\in {\mathbb N}_0}$$ { V i } i ∈ N 0 is an i.i.d. sequence as well (independent of $$\{A_i\}_{i\in {\mathbb N}_0}$$ { A i } i ∈ N 0 and $$\{B_i\}_{i\in {\mathbb N}_0}$$ { B i } i ∈ N 0 ), we then consider three special cases (i) $$V_i$$ V i equals a positive value a with certain probability $$p\in (0,1)$$ p ∈ ( 0 , 1 ) and is negative otherwise, and both $$A_i$$ A i and $$B_i$$ B i have a rational LST, (ii) $$V_i$$ V i attains negative values only and $$B_i$$ B i has a rational LST, (iii) $$V_i$$ V i is uniformly distributed on [0, 1], and $$A_i$$ A i is exponentially distributed. In all three cases, we derive transient and stationary results, where the transient results are in terms of the transform at a geometrically distributed epoch.
- Published
- 2021
13. Gerber-Shiu Theory for Discrete Risk Processes in a Regime Switching Environment
- Author
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Zbigniew Palmowski, Lewis Ramsden, and Apostolos Papaioannou
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Physics::General Physics ,Probability (math.PR) ,FOS: Mathematics ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
In this paper we develop the Gerber-Shiu theory for the classic and dual discrete risk processes in a Markovian (regime switching) environment. In particular, by expressing the Gerber-Shiu function in terms of potential measures of an upward (downward) skip-free discrete-time and discrete-space Markov Additive Process (MAP), we derive closed form expressions for the Gerber-Shiu function in terms of the so-called (discrete) $\boldsymbol{W}_v$ and $\boldsymbol{Z}_v$ scale matrices, which were introduced in arXiv:2008.06697. We show that the discrete scale matrices allow for a unified approach for identifying the Gerber-Shiu function as well as the value function of the associated constant dividend barrier problems.
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- 2022
14. Persistence of heavy-tailed sample averages: principle of infinitely many big jumps
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Ayan Bhattacharya, Zbigniew Palmowski, Bert Zwart, and Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Amsterdam (CWI), The Netherlands
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Statistics and Probability ,Large deviation ,Regular variation ,Heavy-tailed distribution ,Random walk ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,Persistency ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
We consider the sample average of a centered random walk in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with regularly varying step size distribution. For the first exit time from a compact convex set $A$ not containing the origin, we show that its tail is of lognormal type. Moreover, we show that the typical way for a large exit time to occur is by having a number of jumps growing logarithmically in the scaling parameter., Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures
- Published
- 2022
15. Branching processes with immigration in atypical random environment
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Zbigniew Palmowski, Dmitry Korshunov, and Sergey Foss
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Statistics and Probability ,Distribution (number theory) ,60J70, 60G55, 60J80 ,Probability (math.PR) ,Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) ,Branching (polymer chemistry) ,Combinatorics ,Mathematics::Probability ,FOS: Mathematics ,Random environment ,Engineering (miscellaneous) ,Mathematics - Probability ,Branching process ,Mathematics - Abstract
Motivated by a seminal paper of Kesten et al. (1975) we consider a branching process with a geometric offspring distribution with i.i.d. random environmental parameters $A_n$, $n\ge 1$ and size -1 immigration in each generation. In contrast to above mentioned paper we assume that the environment is long-tailed, that is that the distribution $F$ of $��_n := \log ((1-A_n)/A_n)$ is long-tailed. We prove that although the offspring distribution is light-tailed, the environment itself can produce extremely heavy tails of the distribution of the population size in the n-th generation which becomes even heavier with increase of n. More precisely, we prove that, for any n, the distribution tail $\mathbb{P}(Z_n > m)$ of the $n$-th population size $Z_n$ is asymptotically equivalent to $n\overline{F}(\log m)$ as $m$ grows. In this way we generalize Bhattacharya and Palmowski (2019) who proved this result in the case $n=1$ for regularly varying environment $F$ with parameter $��>1$. Further, for a subcritical branching process with subexponentially distributed $��_n$, we provide the asymptotics for the distribution tail $\mathbb{P}(Z_n>m)$ which are valid uniformly for all $n$, and also for the stationary tail distribution. Then we establish the "principle of a single atypical environment" which says that the main cause for the number of particles to be large is a presence of a single very small environmental parameter $A_k$., 20 pages
- Published
- 2022
16. On Busy Periods of the Critical GI/G/1 Queue and BRAVO
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Yoni Nazarathy and Zbigniew Palmowski
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Computational Theory and Mathematics ,Probability (math.PR) ,FOS: Mathematics ,Management Science and Operations Research ,Mathematics - Probability ,Computer Science Applications - Abstract
We study critical GI/G/1 queues under finite second-moment assumptions. We show that the busy-period distribution is regularly varying with index half. We also review previously known M/G/1/ and M/M/1 derivations, yielding exact asymptotics as well as a similar derivation for GI/M/1. The busy-period asymptotics determine the growth rate of moments of the renewal process counting busy cycles. We further use this to demonstrate a Balancing Reduces Asymptotic Variance of Outputs (BRAVO) phenomenon for the work-output process (namely the busy time). This yields new insight on the BRAVO effect. A second contribution of the paper is in settling previous conjectured results about GI/G/1 and GI/G/s BRAVO. Previously, infinite buffer BRAVO was generally only settled under fourth-moment assumptions together with an assumption about the tail of the busy period. In the current paper, we strengthen the previous results by reducing to assumptions to existence of $$2+\epsilon $$ 2 + ϵ moments.
- Published
- 2022
17. Optimal Dividends Paid in a Foreign Currency for a Lévy Insurance Risk Model
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Julia Eisenberg and Zbigniew Palmowski
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Statistics and Probability ,Economics and Econometrics ,050208 finance ,business.industry ,05 social sciences ,Distribution (economics) ,Monetary economics ,01 natural sciences ,Dividend payment ,010104 statistics & probability ,Risk model ,Currency ,Risk process ,0502 economics and business ,Economics ,Dividend ,0101 mathematics ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,business - Abstract
This article considers an optimal dividend distribution problem for an insurance company where the dividends are paid in a foreign currency. In the absence of dividend payments, our risk process fo...
- Published
- 2020
18. The Leland–Toft optimal capital structure model under Poisson observations
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Budhi Arta Surya, José Luis Pérez, Zbigniew Palmowski, and Kazutoshi Yamazaki
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Statistics and Probability ,050208 finance ,Leverage (finance) ,Capital structure ,Mathematical finance ,05 social sciences ,Poisson process ,Poisson distribution ,01 natural sciences ,010104 statistics & probability ,symbols.namesake ,Computer Science::Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science ,Bankruptcy ,0502 economics and business ,symbols ,Economics ,Jump ,0101 mathematics ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,Mathematical economics ,Finance ,Credit risk - Abstract
This paper revisits the optimal capital structure model with endogenous bankruptcy, first studied by Leland (J. Finance 49:1213–1252, 1994) and Leland and Toft (J. Finance 51:987–1019, 1996). Unlike in the standard case where shareholders continuously observe the asset value and bankruptcy is executed instantaneously without delay, the information of the asset value is assumed to be updated periodically at the jump times of an independent Poisson process. Under a spectrally negative Lévy model, we obtain the optimal bankruptcy strategy and the corresponding capital structure. A series of numerical studies provide an analysis of the sensitivity, with respect to the observation frequency, of the optimal strategies, optimal leverage and credit spreads.
- Published
- 2020
19. Optimal valuation of American callable credit default swaps under drawdown of Lévy insurance risk process
- Author
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Zbigniew Palmowski and Budhi Arta Surya
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Statistics and Probability ,Economics and Econometrics ,050208 finance ,Credit default swap ,05 social sciences ,Lévy process ,Embedded option ,Callable bond ,Risk neutral ,Esscher transform ,Quantitative Finance - Mathematical Finance ,Stopping time ,0502 economics and business ,Econometrics ,Economics ,050207 economics ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,Valuation (finance) - Abstract
This paper discusses the valuation of credit default swaps, where default is announced when the reference asset price has gone below certain level from the last record maximum, also known as the high-water mark or drawdown. We assume that the protection buyer pays premium at a fixed rate when the asset price is above a pre-specified level and continuously pays whenever the price increases. This payment scheme is in favour of the buyer as she only pays the premium when the market is in good condition for the protection against financial downturn. Under this framework, we look at an embedded option which gives the issuer an opportunity to call back the contract to a new one with reduced premium payment rate and slightly lower default coverage subject to paying a certain cost. We assume that the buyer is risk neutral investor trying to maximize the expected monetary value of the option over a class of stopping time. We discuss optimal solution to the stopping problem when the source of uncertainty of the asset price is modelled by Levy process with only downward jumps. Using recent development in excursion theory of Levy process, the results are given explicitly in terms of scale function of the Levy process. Furthermore, the value function of the stopping problem is shown to satisfy continuous and smooth pasting conditions regardless of regularity of the sample paths of the Levy process. Optimality and uniqueness of the solution are established using martingale approach for drawdown process and convexity of the scale function under Esscher transform of measure. Some numerical examples are discussed to illustrate the main results.
- Published
- 2020
20. Fluctuation identities for Omega-killed spectrally negative Markov additive processes and dividend problem
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Zbigniew Palmowski, Shu Li, Irmina Czarna, and Adam Kaszubowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Current (mathematics) ,Markov chain ,Markov additive process ,Applied Mathematics ,Piecewise ,Applied mathematics ,Scale (descriptive set theory) ,Bivariate analysis ,Special case ,Brownian motion ,Mathematics - Abstract
In this paper, we solve exit problems for a one-sided Markov additive process (MAP) which is exponentially killed with a bivariate killing intensity $\omega(\cdot,\cdot)$ dependent on the present level of the process and the current state of the environment. Moreover, we analyze the respective resolvents. All identities are expressed in terms of new generalizations of classical scale matrices for MAPs. We also remark on a number of applications of the obtained identities to (controlled) insurance risk processes. In particular, we show that our results can be applied to the Omega model, where bankruptcy takes place at rate $\omega(\cdot,\cdot)$ when the surplus process becomes negative. Finally, we consider Markov-modulated Brownian motion (MMBM) as a special case and present analytical and numerical results for a particular choice of piecewise intensity function $\omega(\cdot,\cdot)$ .
- Published
- 2020
21. Last-Passage American Cancelable Option in Lévy Models
- Author
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Zbigniew Palmowski and Paweł Stępniak
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Accounting ,Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous) ,Finance - Abstract
We derive the explicit price of the perpetual American put option canceled at the last-passage time of the underlying above some fixed level. We assume that the asset process is governed by a geometric spectrally negative Lévy process. We show that the optimal exercise time is the first moment when the asset price process drops below an optimal threshold. We perform numerical analysis considering classical Black–Scholes models and the model where the logarithm of the asset price has additional exponential downward shocks. The proof is based on some martingale arguments and the fluctuation theory of Lévy processes.
- Published
- 2023
22. Modelling social media contagion using Hawkes processes
- Author
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Zbigniew Palmowski and Daria Puchalska
- Subjects
General Mathematics ,Decision Sciences (miscellaneous) - Published
- 2021
23. Quickest drift change detection in Lévy-type force of mortality model
- Author
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Zbigniew Palmowski, Łukasz Płociniczak, and Michał Krawiec
- Subjects
education.field_of_study ,021103 operations research ,Optimality criterion ,Calibration (statistics) ,Applied Mathematics ,Population ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Lévy process ,Force of mortality ,010104 statistics & probability ,Computational Mathematics ,Applied mathematics ,Optimal stopping ,False alarm ,0101 mathematics ,education ,Change detection ,Mathematics - Abstract
In this paper, we give solution to the quickest drift change detection problem for a Levy process consisting of both a continuous Gaussian part and a jump component. We consider here Bayesian framework with an exponential a priori distribution of the change point using an optimality criterion based on a probability of false alarm and an expected delay of the detection. Our approach is based on the optimal stopping theory and solving some boundary value problem. Paper is supplemented by an extensive numerical analysis related with the construction of the Generalized Shiryaev-Roberts statistics. In particular, we apply this method (after appropriate calibration) to analyse Polish life tables and to model the force of mortality in this population with a drift changing in time.
- Published
- 2018
24. Unified approach for solving exit problems for additive-increase and multiplicative-decrease processes
- Author
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Remco van der Hofstad, Stella Kapodistria, Zbigniew Palmowski, Seva Shneer, Probability, Eurandom, ICMS Core, Stochastic Operations Research, and EAISI High Tech Systems
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,growth-collapse process ,General Mathematics ,Probability (math.PR) ,first passage times ,first-step analysis ,storage ,Exit times ,FOS: Mathematics ,Laplace-Stieltjes transform ,queueing process ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,AIMD algorithm ,additive-increase and multiplicative-decrease process ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
We analyse an additive-increase and multiplicative-decrease (aka growth-collapse) process that grows linearly in time and that experiences downward jumps at Poisson epochs that are (deterministically) proportional to its present position. This process is used for example in modelling of Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and can be viewed as a particular example of the so-called shot noise model, a basic tool in modeling earthquakes, avalanches and neuron firings. For this process, and also for its reflected versions, we consider one- and two-sided exit problems that concern the identification of the laws of exit times from fixed intervals and half-lines. All proofs are based on a unified first-step analysis approach at the first jump epoch, which allows us to give explicit, yet involved, formulas for their Laplace transforms. All the eight Laplace transforms can be described in terms of two so-called scale functions $Z_{\uparrow}$ and $L_{\uparrow}$. Here $Z_{\uparrow}$ is described in terms of multiple explicit sums, and $L_{\uparrow}$ in terms of an explicit recursion formula. All other Laplace transforms can be obtained from $Z_{\uparrow}$ and $L_{\uparrow}$ by taking limits, derivatives, integrals and combinations of these.
- Published
- 2021
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
25. Matrix-Analytic Methods for the analysis of Stochastic Fluid-Fluid Models
- Author
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Nigel G. Bean, Małgorzata M. O’Reilly, and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Applied Mathematics ,Modeling and Simulation ,Probability (math.PR) ,FOS: Mathematics ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
Stochastic fluid-fluid models (SFFMs) offer powerful modeling ability for a wide range of real-life systems of significance. The existing theoretical framework for this class of models is in terms of operator-analytic methods. For the first time, we establish matrix-analytic methods for the efficient analysis of SFFMs. We illustrate the theory with numerical examples.
- Published
- 2020
26. A Note on Simulation Pricing of π-Options
- Author
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Tomasz Serafin and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Mathematical optimization ,Computer Science::Computer Science and Game Theory ,Discretization ,Strategy and Management ,Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) ,Monte Carlo method ,lcsh:HG8011-9999 ,01 natural sciences ,lcsh:Insurance ,010104 statistics & probability ,Accounting ,0502 economics and business ,ddc:330 ,Optimal stopping ,0101 mathematics ,Monte Carlo algorithm ,Monte Carlo simulation ,Mathematics ,050208 finance ,G13 ,Û-option ,05 social sciences ,π-option ,Tree (data structure) ,C61 ,TheoryofComputation_MATHEMATICALLOGICANDFORMALLANGUAGES ,optimal stopping ,American-type option ,Computer Science::Programming Languages ,Drawdown (economics) ,Portfolio ,Parametrization - Abstract
In this work, we adapt a Monte Carlo algorithm introduced by Broadie and Glasserman in 1997 to price a &pi, option. This method is based on the simulated price tree that comes from discretization and replication of possible trajectories of the underlying asset&rsquo, s price. As a result, this algorithm produces the lower and the upper bounds that converge to the true price with the increasing depth of the tree. Under specific parametrization, this &pi, option is related to relative maximum drawdown and can be used in the real market environment to protect a portfolio against volatile and unexpected price drops. We also provide some numerical analysis.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
27. Importance sampling for maxima on trees
- Author
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Bojan Basrak, Michael Conroy, Mariana Olvera-Cravioto, and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,High-order Lindley equation, branching random walk, importance sampling, weighted branching processes, distributional fixed-point equations, change of measure ,Applied Mathematics ,Modeling and Simulation ,Probability (math.PR) ,FOS: Mathematics ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
We consider the distributional fixed-point equation: $$R \stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=} Q \vee \left( \bigvee_{i=1}^N C_i R_i \right),$$ where the $\{R_i\}$ are i.i.d.~copies of $R$, independent of the vector $(Q, N, \{C_i\})$, where $N \in \mathbb{N}$, $Q, \{C_i\} \geq 0$ and $P(Q > 0) > 0$. By setting $W = \log R$, $X_i = \log C_i$, $Y = \log Q$ it is equivalent to the high-order Lindley equation $$W \stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=} \max\left\{ Y, \, \max_{1 \leq i \leq N} (X_i + W_i) \right\}.$$ It is known that under Kesten assumptions, $$P(W > t) \sim H e^{-\alpha t}, \qquad t \to \infty,$$ where $\alpha>0$ solves the Cram\'er-Lundberg equation $E \left[ \sum_{j=1}^N C_i ^\alpha \right] = E\left[ \sum_{i=1}^N e^{\alpha X_i} \right] = 1$. The main goal of this paper is to provide an explicit representation for $P(W > t)$, which can be directly connected to the underlying weighted branching process where $W$ is constructed and that can be used to construct unbiased and strongly efficient estimators for all $t$. Furthermore, we show how this new representation can be directly analyzed using Alsmeyer's Markov renewal theorem, yielding an alternative representation for the constant $H$. We provide numerical examples illustrating the use of this new algorithm.
- Published
- 2020
28. A dual risk model with additive and proportional gains: ruin probability and dividends
- Author
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Onno Boxma, Esther Frostig, Zbigniew Palmowski, and Stochastic Operations Research
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Applied Mathematics ,Probability (math.PR) ,Mathematics::Optimization and Control ,FOS: Mathematics ,Dual risk model ,ruin probability ,time to ruin ,Mathematics - Probability ,dividend - Abstract
We consider a dual risk model with constant expense rate and i.i.d. exponentially distributed gains $C_i$ ( $i=1,2,\dots$ ) that arrive according to a renewal process with general interarrival times. We add to this classical dual risk model the proportional gain feature; that is, if the surplus process just before the ith arrival is at level u, then for $a>0$ the capital jumps up to the level $(1+a)u+C_i$ . The ruin probability and the distribution of the time to ruin are determined. We furthermore identify the value of discounted cumulative dividend payments, for the case of a Poisson arrival process of proportional gains. In the dividend calculations, we also consider a random perturbation of our basic risk process modeled by an independent Brownian motion with drift.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
29. Phase-type approximations perturbed by a heavy-tailed component for the Gerber-Shiu function of risk processes with two-sided jumps
- Author
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Eleni Vatamidou and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Applied Mathematics ,010102 general mathematics ,Probability (math.PR) ,Perturbation (astronomy) ,Poisson distribution ,01 natural sciences ,010104 statistics & probability ,symbols.namesake ,Modeling and Simulation ,symbols ,FOS: Mathematics ,Applied mathematics ,Phase-type distribution ,0101 mathematics ,Mathematics - Probability ,Mathematics - Abstract
We consider in this paper a risk reserve process where the claims and gains arrive according to two independent Poisson processes. While the gain sizes are phase-type distributed, we assume instead that the claim sizes are phase-type perturbed by a heavy-tailed component; that is, the claim size distribution is formally chosen to be phase-type with large probability $1-\epsilon$ and heavy-tailed with small probability $\epsilon$. We analyze the seminal Gerber-Shiu function coding the joint distribution of the time to ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin, and the deficit at ruin. We derive its value as an expansion with respect to powers of $\epsilon$ with known coefficients and we construct approximations from the first two terms of the aforementioned series. The main idea is based on the so-called fluid embedding that allows to put the considered risk process into the framework of spectrally negative Markov-additive processes and use its fluctuation theory developed in Ivanovs and Palmowski (2012).
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
30. Optimal Parisian-type dividend payments penalized by the number of claims for the classical and perturbed classical risk process
- Author
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Chunming Zhao, Yanhong Li, Zbigniew Palmowski, and Irmina Czarna
- Subjects
Risk process ,Econometrics ,Economics ,Type (model theory) ,Dividend payment - Published
- 2020
31. Multivariate Lévy-type drift change detection and mortality modeling
- Author
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Michał Krawiec and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Economics and Econometrics ,Probability (math.PR) ,FOS: Mathematics ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty - Abstract
In this paper we give a solution to the quickest drift change detection problem for a multivariate Lévy process consisting of both continuous (Gaussian) and jump components in the Bayesian approach. We do it for a general 0-modified continuous prior distribution of the change point as well as for a random post-change drift parameter. Classically, our criterion of optimality is based on a probability of false alarm and an expected delay of the detection, which is then reformulated in terms of a posterior probability of the change point. We find a generator of the posterior probability, which in case of general prior distribution is inhomogeneous in time. The main solving technique uses the optimal stopping theory and is based on solving a certain free-boundary problem. We also construct a Generelized Shiryaev-Roberts statistic, which can be used for applications. The paper is supplemented by two examples, one of which is further used to analyze Polish life tables (after proper calibration) and detect the drift change in the correlated force of mortality of men and women jointly.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
32. Double continuation regions for American options under Poisson exercise opportunities
- Author
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Kazutoshi Yamazaki, Zbigniew Palmowski, and José Luis Pérez
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Interval (mathematics) ,Poisson distribution ,01 natural sciences ,Lévy process ,FOS: Economics and business ,010104 statistics & probability ,Continuation ,symbols.namesake ,Accounting ,Bellman equation ,0502 economics and business ,Convergence (routing) ,FOS: Mathematics ,Applied mathematics ,Optimal stopping ,0101 mathematics ,Mathematics - Optimization and Control ,media_common ,Mathematics ,050208 finance ,Applied Mathematics ,05 social sciences ,Probability (math.PR) ,Infinity ,Mathematical Finance (q-fin.MF) ,Quantitative Finance - Mathematical Finance ,Optimization and Control (math.OC) ,symbols ,Social Sciences (miscellaneous) ,Finance ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
We consider the L\'evy model of the perpetual American call and put options with a negative discount rate under Poisson observations. Similar to the continuous observation case as in De Donno et al. [24], the stopping region that characterizes the optimal stopping time is either a half-line or an interval. The objective of this paper is to obtain explicit expressions of the stopping and continuation regions and the value function, focusing on spectrally positive and negative cases. To this end, we compute the identities related to the first Poisson arrival time to an interval via the scale function and then apply those identities to the computation of the optimal strategies. We also discuss the convergence of the optimal solutions to those in the continuous observation case as the rate of observation increases to infinity. Numerical experiments are also provided.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
33. Fluctuations of Omega-killed spectrally negative Lévy processes
- Author
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Bo Li and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Pure mathematics ,Laplace transform ,Applied Mathematics ,010102 general mathematics ,Self-similar process ,Markov process ,Scale (descriptive set theory) ,State (functional analysis) ,01 natural sciences ,Lévy process ,Omega ,010104 statistics & probability ,symbols.namesake ,Modeling and Simulation ,symbols ,Markov property ,0101 mathematics ,Mathematics - Abstract
In this paper we solve the exit problems for (reflected) spectrally negative Levy processes, which are exponentially killed with a killing intensity dependent on the present state of the process and analyze respective resolvents. All identities are given in terms of new generalizations of scale functions. For the particular cases ω ( x ) = q and ω ( x ) = q 1 ( a , b ) ( x ) , we obtain results for the classical exit problems and the Laplace transforms of the occupation times in a given interval, until first passage times, respectively. Our results can also be applied to find the bankruptcy probability in the so-called Omega model, where bankruptcy occurs at rate ω ( x ) when the Levy surplus process is at level x 0 . Finally, we apply these results to obtain some exit identities for spectrally positive self-similar Markov processes. The main method throughout all the proofs relies on the classical fluctuation identities for Levy processes, the Markov property and some basic properties of a Poisson process.
- Published
- 2018
34. Two-dimensional ruin probability for subexponential claim size
- Author
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Tomasz Rolski, Zbigniew Palmowski, Sergey Foss, and Dmitry Korshunov
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Discrete mathematics ,021103 operations research ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Probability (math.PR) ,1. No poverty ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,Infinity ,01 natural sciences ,010104 statistics & probability ,FOS: Mathematics ,0101 mathematics ,Mathematics - Probability ,Mathematics ,media_common - Abstract
TWO-DIMENSIONAL RUIN PROBABILITY FOR SUBEXPONENTIAL CLAIM SIZEWe analyse the asymptotics of ruin probabilities of two insurance companies or two branches of the same company that divide between them both claims and premiums in some specified proportions when the initial reserves of both companies tend to infinity, and generic claim size is subexponential.
- Published
- 2018
35. A note on first passage probabilities of a Lévy process reflected at a general barrier
- Author
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Przemysław Świątek and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Lévy process ,Mathematics ,Mathematical physics ,Central limit theorem - Abstract
A NOTE ON FIRST PASSAGE PROBABILITIES OF A LÉVY PROCESS REFLECTED AT A GENERAL BARRIERIn this paper we analyze a Lévy process reflected at a general possibly random barrier. For this process we prove the Central Limit Theorem for the first passage time. We also give the finite-time first passage probability asymptotics.
- Published
- 2018
36. Fair Valuation of Lévy-Type Drawdown-Drawup Contracts with General Insured and Penalty Functions
- Author
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Joanna Tumilewicz and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
0209 industrial biotechnology ,Control and Optimization ,Early stopping ,Applied Mathematics ,010102 general mathematics ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Lévy process ,Constant intensity ,020901 industrial engineering & automation ,Insurance policy ,Econometrics ,Optimal stopping rule ,Optimal stopping ,0101 mathematics ,Mathematics ,Valuation (finance) - Abstract
In this paper, we analyse some equity-linked contracts that are related to drawdown and drawup events based on assets governed by a geometric spectrally negative Levy process. Drawdown and drawup refer to the differences between the historical maximum and minimum of the asset price and its current value, respectively. We consider four contracts. In the first contract, a protection buyer pays a premium with a constant intensity p until the drawdown of fixed size occurs. In return, he/she receives a certain insured amount at the drawdown epoch, which depends on the drawdown level at that moment. Next, the insurance contract may expire earlier if a certain fixed drawup event occurs prior to the fixed drawdown. The last two contracts are extensions of the previous ones but with an additional cancellable feature that allows the investor to terminate the contracts earlier. In these cases, a fee for early stopping depends on the drawdown level at the stopping epoch. In this work, we focus on two problems: calculating the fair premium p for basic contracts and finding the optimal stopping rule for the polices with a cancellable feature. To do this, we use a fluctuation theory of Levy processes and rely on a theory of optimal stopping.
- Published
- 2018
37. Pricing insurance drawdown-type contracts with underlying Lévy assets
- Author
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Joanna Tumilewicz and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Economics and Econometrics ,Geometric Brownian motion ,050208 finance ,05 social sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Lévy process ,010104 statistics & probability ,Insurance policy ,0502 economics and business ,Econometrics ,Economics ,Drawdown (economics) ,Optimal stopping ,Asset (economics) ,0101 mathematics ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,Constant (mathematics) ,Event (probability theory) - Abstract
In this paper we consider some insurance policies related to drawdown and drawup events of log-returns for an underlying asset modeled by a spectrally negative geometric Levy process. We consider four contracts, three of which were introduced in Zhang (2013) for a geometric Brownian motion. The first one is an insurance contract where the protection buyer pays a constant premium until the drawdown of fixed size of log-returns occurs. In return he/she receives a certain insured amount at the drawdown epoch. The next insurance contract provides protection from any specified drawdown with a drawup contingency. This contract expires early if a certain fixed drawup event occurs prior to the fixed drawdown. The last two contracts are extensions of the previous ones by an additional cancellation feature which allows the investor to terminate the contract earlier. We focus on two problems: calculating the fair premium p for the basic contracts and identifying the optimal stopping rule for the policies with the cancellation feature. To do this we solve some two-sided exit problems related to drawdown and drawup of spectrally negative Levy processes, which is of independent mathematical interest. We also heavily rely on the theory of optimal stopping.
- Published
- 2018
38. A note on chaotic and predictable representations for Itô–Markov additive processes
- Author
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Łukasz Stettner, Zbigniew Palmowski, and Anna Sulima
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Complete market ,Markov chain ,Applied Mathematics ,010102 general mathematics ,Chaotic ,Process (computing) ,Regime switching ,01 natural sciences ,Continuous-time Markov chain ,010104 statistics & probability ,Orthogonal polynomials ,Applied mathematics ,0101 mathematics ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,Brownian motion ,Mathematics - Abstract
In this article, we provide predictable and chaotic representations for Ito–Markov additive processes X. Such a process is governed by a finite-state continuous time Markov chain J which allows one...
- Published
- 2018
39. Matrix geometric approach for random walks
- Author
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Stella Kapodistria, Zbigniew Palmowski, and Stochastic Operations Research
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,math.PR ,k-nearest neighbors algorithm ,compensation approach ,spectrum ,stability condition ,010104 statistics & probability ,Lattice (order) ,FOS: Mathematics ,Statistical physics ,0101 mathematics ,Mathematics ,021103 operations research ,equilibrium distribution ,Applied Mathematics ,Probability (math.PR) ,Boundary value problem method ,matrix geometric approach ,random walks ,Random walk ,Homogeneous ,Modeling and Simulation ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
In this paper, we analyze a sub-class of two-dimensional homogeneous nearest neighbor (simple) random walk restricted on the lattice using the matrix geometric approach. In particular, we first present an alternative approach for the calculation of the stability condition, extending the result of Neuts drift conditions [ 30 ] and connecting it with the result of Fayolle et al. which is based on Lyapunov functions. [ 13 ] Furthermore, we consider the sub-class of random walks with equilibrium distributions given as series of product forms and, for this class of random walks, we calculate the eigenvalues and the corresponding eigenvectors of the infinite matrix R appearing in the matrix geometric approach. This result is obtained by connecting and extending three existing approaches available for such an analysis: the matrix geometric approach, the compensation approach and the boundary value problem method. In this paper, we also present the spectral properties of the infinite matrix R.
- Published
- 2017
40. Parisian quasi-stationary distributions for asymmetric Lévy processes
- Author
-
Zbigniew Palmowski and Irmina Czarna
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,050208 finance ,Exponential distribution ,05 social sciences ,Zero (complex analysis) ,01 natural sciences ,Lévy process ,010104 statistics & probability ,Risk process ,0502 economics and business ,0101 mathematics ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,Mathematical physics ,Mathematics - Abstract
In recent years there has been some focus on quasi-stationary behavior of an one-dimensional Levy process X , where we ask for the law P ( X t ∈ d y | τ 0 − > t ) for t → ∞ and τ 0 − = inf { t ≥ 0 : X t 0 } . In this paper we address the same question for so-called Parisian ruin time τ θ , that happens when process stays below zero longer than independent exponential random variable with intensity θ .
- Published
- 2017
41. Optimizing the expected utility of dividend payments for a Cramér–Lundberg risk process
- Author
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Zbigniew Palmowski and Sebastian Baran
- Subjects
Actuarial science ,Risk process ,Applied Mathematics ,Economics ,Expected utility hypothesis ,Dividend payment - Published
- 2017
42. Slower variation of the generation sizes induced by heavy-tailed environment for geometric branching
- Author
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Ayan Bhattacharya, Zbigniew Palmowski, and Centrum Wiskunde & Informatica, Amsterdam (CWI), The Netherlands
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Regular variation ,Population ,Branching process ,01 natural sciences ,Combinatorics ,010104 statistics & probability ,TheoryofComputation_ANALYSISOFALGORITHMSANDPROBLEMCOMPLEXITY ,FOS: Mathematics ,0101 mathematics ,education ,Mathematics ,Random environment ,education.field_of_study ,Random walk in random environment ,010102 general mathematics ,Probability (math.PR) ,State (functional analysis) ,Random walk ,Slowly varying function ,Distribution (mathematics) ,Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty ,First-hitting-time model ,Random variable ,Mathematics - Probability ,Slow variation - Abstract
Motivated by seminal paper of Kozlov et al.(1975) we consider in this paper a branching process with a geometric offspring distribution parametrized by random success probability $A$ and immigration equals $1$ in each generation. In contrast to above mentioned article, we assume that environment is heavy-tailed, that is $\log A^{-1} (1-A)$ is regularly varying with a parameter $\alpha>1$, that is that ${\bf P} \Big( \log A^{-1} (1-A) > x \Big) = x^{-\alpha} L(x)$ for a slowly varying function $L$. We will prove that although the offspring distribution is light-tailed, the environment itself can produce extremely heavy tails of distribution of the population at $n$-th generation which gets even heavier with $n$ increasing. Precisely, in this work, we prove that asymptotic tail ${\bf P}(Z_l \ge m)$ of $l$-th population $Z_l$ is of order $ \Big(\log^{(l)} m \Big)^{-\alpha} L \Big(\log^{(l)} m \Big)$ for large $m$, where $\log^{(l)} m = \log \ldots \log m$. The proof is mainly based on Tauberian theorem. Using this result we also analyze the asymptotic behaviour of the first passage time $T_n$ of the state $n \in \mathbb{Z}$ by the walker in a neighborhood random walk in random environment created by independent copies $(A_i : i \in \mathbb{Z})$ of $(0,1)$-valued random variable $A$. This version differs from the final version as it contains an alternative proof for the tail behavior for generation sizes which is not very sharp (lacks constant) but completely avoids arguments based on Tauberian theorem. This proof may be of an independent interest., Comment: An extended version of journal version
- Published
- 2019
43. Yaglom limit for Stochastic Fluid Models
- Author
-
Nigel G. Bean, Zbigniew Palmowski, and Małgorzata M. O’Reilly
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Class (set theory) ,Markov chain ,Laplace–Stieltjes transform ,Applied Mathematics ,Probability (math.PR) ,Conditional probability distribution ,Simple (abstract algebra) ,Fluid queue ,FOS: Mathematics ,Applied mathematics ,Uniqueness ,Limit (mathematics) ,Mathematics - Probability ,Mathematics - Abstract
In this paper we analyse the limiting conditional distribution (Yaglom limit) for stochastic fluid models (SFMs), a key class of models in the theory of matrix-analytic methods. So far, only transient and stationary analyses of SFMs have been considered in the literature. The limiting conditional distribution gives useful insights into what happens when the process has been evolving for a long time, given that its busy period has not ended yet. We derive expressions for the Yaglom limit in terms of the singularity˜$s^*$ such that the key matrix of the SFM, ${\boldsymbol{\Psi}}(s)$, is finite (exists) for all $s\geq s^*$ and infinite for $s. We show the uniqueness of the Yaglom limit and illustrate the application of the theory with simple examples.
- Published
- 2019
44. Extremes of multitype branching random walks: Heaviest tail wins
- Author
-
Parthanil Roy, Krishanu Maulik, Ayan Bhattacharya, and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Multitype branching random walk ,Regular variation ,Asymptotic distribution ,01 natural sciences ,Point process ,Cox process ,010104 statistics & probability ,Mathematics::Probability ,Extreme value ,Branching random walk ,Poisson point process ,FOS: Mathematics ,Statistical physics ,0101 mathematics ,Rightmost point ,Mathematics ,Sequence ,60J70, 60G55 (Primary), 60J80 (Secondary) ,Applied Mathematics ,Probability (math.PR) ,010102 general mathematics ,Random walk ,Particle ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
We consider a branching random walk on a multitype (withQtypes of particles), supercritical Galton–Watson tree which satisfies the Kesten–Stigum condition. We assume that the displacements associated with the particles of typeQhave regularly varying tails of index$\alpha$, while the other types of particles have lighter tails than the particles of typeQ. In this paper we derive the weak limit of the sequence of point processes associated with the positions of the particles in thenth generation. We verify that the limiting point process is a randomly scaled scale-decorated Poisson point process using the tools developed by Bhattacharya, Hazra, and Roy (2018). As a consequence, we obtain the asymptotic distribution of the position of the rightmost particle in thenth generation.
- Published
- 2019
45. The Exact Asymptotics for Hitting Probability of a Remote Orthant by a Multivariate Lévy Process: The Cramér Case
- Author
-
Konstantin Borovkov and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Moment (mathematics) ,Multivariate statistics ,Mathematics::Probability ,Discretization ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Applied mathematics ,Preprint ,Infinity ,Random walk ,Lévy process ,media_common ,Mathematics ,Orthant - Abstract
For a multivariate Levy process satisfying the Cramer moment condition and having a drift vector with at least one negative component, we derive the exact asymptotics of the probability of ever hitting the positive orthant that is being translated to infinity along a fixed vector with positive components. This problem is motivated by the multivariate ruin problem introduced in Avram et al. (Ann Appl Probab 18:2421–2449, 2008) in the two-dimensional case. Our solution relies on the analysis from Pan and Borovkov (Preprint. arXiv:1708.09605, 2017) for multivariate random walks and an appropriate time discretization.
- Published
- 2019
46. The Leland-Toft Optimal Capital Structure Model Under Poisson Observations
- Author
-
Zbigniew Palmowski, Budhi Arta Surya, Kazutoshi Yamazaki, and José Luis Pérez
- Subjects
Leverage (finance) ,Capital structure ,Probability (math.PR) ,Poisson distribution ,FOS: Economics and business ,symbols.namesake ,Computer Science::Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science ,Bankruptcy ,Value (economics) ,FOS: Mathematics ,symbols ,Econometrics ,Jump ,Pricing of Securities (q-fin.PR) ,Asset (economics) ,Quantitative Finance - Pricing of Securities ,Mathematics - Probability ,Credit risk ,Mathematics - Abstract
We revisit the optimal capital structure model with endogenous bankruptcy first studied by Leland \cite{Leland94} and Leland and Toft \cite{Leland96}. Differently from the standard case, where shareholders observe continuously the asset value and bankruptcy is executed instantaneously without delay, we assume that the information of the asset value is updated only at intervals, modeled by the jump times of an independent Poisson process. Under the spectrally negative L\'evy model, we obtain the optimal bankruptcy strategy and the corresponding capital structure. A series of numerical studies are given to analyze the sensitivity of observation frequency on the optimal solutions, the optimal leverage and the credit spreads., Comment: Forthcoming in Finance and Stochastics
- Published
- 2019
47. Number of Claims and Ruin Time for a Refracted Risk Process
- Author
-
Zbigniew Palmowski, Yanhong Li, Chunming Zhao, and Chunsheng Zhang
- Subjects
050208 finance ,05 social sciences ,Mathematics::Optimization and Control ,Expression (computer science) ,Ruin theory ,01 natural sciences ,010104 statistics & probability ,Risk model ,Mathematics::Probability ,Risk process ,0502 economics and business ,Calculus ,Applied mathematics ,0101 mathematics ,Gambler's ruin ,First-hitting-time model ,Mathematics - Abstract
In this paper, we consider a classical risk model refracted at given level. We give an explicit expression for the joint density of the ruin time and the cumulative number of claims counted up to ruin time. The proof is based on solving some integro-differential equations and employing the Lagrange’s Expansion Theorem.
- Published
- 2019
48. Optimal portfolio selection in an Itô-Markov additive market
- Author
-
Łukasz Stettner, Zbigniew Palmowski, and Anna Sulima
- Subjects
Markovian jump securities ,complete market ,Logarithm ,Strategy and Management ,Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous) ,Jump diffusion ,Markov process ,lcsh:HG8011-9999 ,01 natural sciences ,Lévy process ,lcsh:Insurance ,010104 statistics & probability ,symbols.namesake ,Accounting ,0502 economics and business ,Economics ,Econometrics ,ddc:330 ,Markov additive processes ,0101 mathematics ,050208 finance ,Complete market ,Markov chain ,05 social sciences ,asymptotic arbitrage ,Regime switching ,optimal portfolio ,symbols ,Portfolio ,Markov regime switching market - Abstract
We study a portfolio selection problem in a continuous-time Itô, &ndash, Markov additive market with prices of financial assets described by Markov additive processes that combine Lé, vy processes and regime switching models. Thus, the model takes into account two sources of risk: the jump diffusion risk and the regime switching risk. For this reason, the market is incomplete. We complete the market by enlarging it with the use of a set of Markovian jump securities, Markovian power-jump securities and impulse regime switching securities. Moreover, we give conditions under which the market is asymptotic-arbitrage-free. We solve the portfolio selection problem in the Itô, Markov additive market for the power utility and the logarithmic utility.
- Published
- 2019
49. Subexponential potential asymptotics with applications
- Author
-
Victoria Knopova and Zbigniew Palmowski
- Subjects
Statistics and Probability ,Mathematics::Probability ,Applied Mathematics ,Probability (math.PR) ,FOS: Mathematics ,Mathematics - Probability - Abstract
Let $X_t^\sharp$ be a multivariate process of the form $X_t =Y_t - Z_t$ , $X_0=x$ , killed at some terminal time T, where $Y_t$ is a Markov process having only jumps of length smaller than $\delta$ , and $Z_t$ is a compound Poisson process with jumps of length bigger than $\delta$ , for some fixed $\delta>0$ . Under the assumptions that the summands in $Z_t$ are subexponential, we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the potential function $u(x)= \mathbb{E}^x \int_0^\infty \ell\big(X_s^\sharp\big)ds$ . The case of heavy-tailed entries in $Z_t$ corresponds to the case of ‘big claims’ in insurance models and is of practical interest. The main approach is based on the fact that u(x) satisfies a certain renewal equation.
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Pricing Perpetual American Put Options with Asset-Dependent Discounting
- Author
-
Zbigniew Palmowski and Jonas Al-Hadad
- Subjects
lcsh:Risk in industry. Risk management ,MathematicsofComputing_GENERAL ,Computational Finance (q-fin.CP) ,01 natural sciences ,Lévy process ,FOS: Economics and business ,010104 statistics & probability ,Quantitative Finance - Computational Finance ,Bellman equation ,lcsh:Finance ,lcsh:HG1-9999 ,0502 economics and business ,ddc:330 ,0101 mathematics ,option pricing ,Mathematics ,Discounting ,050208 finance ,G13 ,05 social sciences ,Function (mathematics) ,Mathematical Finance (q-fin.MF) ,lcsh:HD61 ,C61 ,TheoryofComputation_MATHEMATICALLOGICANDFORMALLANGUAGES ,Quantitative Finance - Mathematical Finance ,Valuation of options ,American option ,Martingale (probability theory) ,Discount function ,Constant (mathematics) ,Mathematical economics - Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to present an algorithm of pricing perpetual American put options with asset-dependent discounting. The value function of such an instrument can be described as VAPutω(s)=supτ∈TEs[e−∫0τω(Sw)dw(K−Sτ)+], where T is a family of stopping times, ω is a discount function and E is an expectation taken with respect to a martingale measure. Moreover, we assume that the asset price process St is a geometric Lévy process with negative exponential jumps, i.e., St=seζt+σBt−∑i=1NtYi. The asset-dependent discounting is reflected in the ω function, so this approach is a generalisation of the classic case when ω is constant. It turns out that under certain conditions on the ω function, the value function VAPutω(s) is convex and can be represented in a closed form. We provide an option pricing algorithm in this scenario and we present exact calculations for the particular choices of ω such that VAPutω(s) takes a simplified form.
- Published
- 2021
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