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Myelodysplastic neoplasms (MDS) are characterized by clonal evolution starting from the compartment of hematopoietic stem and progenitors cells (HSPCs), leading in some cases to leukemic transformation. We hypothesized that deciphering the diversity of the HSPCs compartment may allow for the early detection of an emergent sub-clone that drives disease progression. Deep analysis of HSPCs repartition by multiparametric flow cytometry revealed a strong disorder of the hematopoietic branching system in most patients at diagnosis with different phenotypic signatures closely related to specific MDS features. In two independent cohorts of 131 and 584 MDS, the HSPCs heterogeneity quantified through entropy calculation was decreased in 47% and 46% of cases, reflecting a more advanced state of the disease with deeper cytopenias, higher IPSS-R risk and accumulation of somatic mutations. We demonstrated that patients with lower-risk MDS and low CD34 + CD38+HSPCs entropy had an adverse outcome and that this parameter is as an independent predictive biomarker for progression free survival, leukemia free survival and overall survival. Analysis of HSPCs repartition at diagnosis represents therefore a very powerful tool to identify lower-risk MDS patients with a worse outcome and valuable for clinical decision-making, which could be fully integrated in the MDS diagnostic workflow., (© 2024. The Author(s).)