Search

Abstract About one-fifth of the total housing stock in Detroit, Michigan is vacant, blighted or abandoned. Abandoned homes are particularly vulnerable to arson, with an estimated 20 such structures set ablaze each day. In 2011 the Fire Commissioner of Detroit announced a policy of fire non-suppression for abandoned structures. The policy is referred to as "Let it Burn." While such a policy has the merit of focusing scarce firefighting resources on situations in which people's lives are immediately at risk, we show that the policy exposes residents city-wide to various hazardous inorganic gases (CO, SO 2 , and NO 2) released in uncontrolled fire events. By exploiting an annual tradition in Detroit called Devil's Night, we overcome a measurement problem involving the statistical attribution of changes in city-wide air quality due to fire emissions, and we conservatively estimate per burn pollutant externality costs from inorganic gas releases that include health damages in excess mortality and hospitalization for circulatory conditions in elderly populations. The estimated present value health burden for elderly residents of Detroit due to cardiovascular complications resulting from arson-related emissions of CO is greater than $300 million dollars. Since this is only a subset of the total social costs attributable to arson, the results suggest that a large scale blight reduction program might be socially efficient. Building on our empirical findings, we argue that the dilemma facing Detroit has the structure of a classic poverty trap. The corresponding insights may be relevant for other so-called rust belt cities grappling with the ecological economics of depopulation, housing abandonment, and arson. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2014-2015 Legionnaire's disease (LD) outbreak in Genesee County, MI and the outbreak resolution in 2016 coincided with changes in the source of drinking water to Flint's municipal water system. Following the switch in water supply from Detroit to Flint River water, the odds of a Flint resident presenting with LD increased 6.3-fold (95% CI: 2.5, 14.0). This risk subsided following boil water advisories, likely due to residents avoiding water, and returned to historically normal levels with the switch back in water supply. During the crisis, as the concentration of free chlorine in water delivered to Flint residents decreased, their risk of acquiring LD increased. When the average weekly chlorine level in a census tract was <0.5 mg/L or <0.2 mg/L, the odds of an LD case presenting from a Flint neighborhood increased by a factor of 2.9 (95% CI: 1.4, 6.3) or 3.9 (95% CI: 1.8, 8.7), respectively. During the switch, the risk of a Flint neighborhood having a case of LD increased by 80% per 1 mg/L decrease in free chlorine, as calculated from the extensive variation in chlorine observed. In communities adjacent to Flint, the probability of LD occurring increased with the flow of commuters into Flint. Together, the results support the hypothesis that a system-wide proliferation of legionellae was responsible for the LD outbreak in Genesee County, MI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Flint Water Crisis (FWC) is divisible into four phases of child water-lead exposure risk: Phase A) before the switch in water source to the Flint River (our baseline); Phase B) after the switch in water source, but before boil water advisories; Phase C) after boil water advisories, but before the switch back to the baseline water source of the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department (DWSD); and Phase D) after the switch back to DWSD. The objective of this work is to estimate water-lead attributable movements in child blood lead levels (BLLs) that correspond with the four phases in the FWC. With over 21,000 geo-referenced and time-stamped blood lead samples from children in Genesee County drawn from January 01, 2013 to July 19, 2016, we develop a series of quasi-experimental models to identify the causal effect of water-lead exposure on child BLLs in Flint. We find that the switch in water source (transitioning from phase A to B) caused mean BLLs to increase by about 0.5 μg/dL, and increased the likelihood of a child presenting with a BLL ≥ 5 μg/dL by a factor of 1.91–3.50, implying an additional 561 children exceeding 5 μg/dL. We conservatively estimate cohort social costs (through lost earnings alone) of this increase in water-lead exposed children at $65 million, contrasted with expected annual savings of $2 million from switching water source. On the switch from Phase B to C, we find BLLs decreased about 50% from their initial rise following boil water advisories and subsequent water avoidance behaviors by households. Finally, the return to the baseline source water (Phase D) returned child BLLs to pre-FWC levels further implicating water-lead exposure as a causal source of child BLLs throughout the FWC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The age standardized death rate from motor neuron disease (MND) for persons 40–84 years of age in the Australian States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland increased dramatically from 1958 to 2013. Nationally, age-specific MND death rates also increased over this time period, but the rate of the rise varied considerably by age-group. The historic use of lead (Pb) additives in Australian petrol is a candidate explanation for these trends in MND mortality (International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 G12.2). Methods Leveraging temporal and spatial variation in petrol lead exposure risk resulting from the slow rise and rapid phase-out of lead as a constituent in gasoline in Australia, we analyze relationships between (1) national age-specific MND death rates in Australia and age-specific lifetime petrol lead exposure, (2) annual between-age dispersions in age-specific MND death rates and age-specific lifetime petrol lead exposure; and (3) state-level age-standardized MND death rates as a function of age-weighted lifetime petrol lead exposure. Results Other things held equal, we find that a one percent increase in lifetime petrol lead exposure increases the MND death rate by about one-third of one percent in both national age-specific and state-level age-standardized models of MND mortality. Lending support to the supposition that lead exposure is a driver of MND mortality risk, we find that the annual between-age group standard deviation in age-specific MND death rates is strongly correlated with the between-age standard deviation in age-specific lifetime petrol lead exposure. Conclusion Legacy petrol lead emissions are associated with age-specific MND death rates as well as state-level age-standardized MND death rates in Australia. Results indicate that we are approaching peak lead exposure-attributable MND mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the United States, average household size decreased significantly over the past half century. From 1950 to 2010, the number of households increased 72% faster than population size. In this paper we consider how this drift toward more and smaller households, occurring alongside rising affluence, undermines efforts to curb carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by eroding household scale economies of consumption and associated CO 2 emissions. To estimate the household scaling of CO 2 emissions, we link consumer expenditure data to an economic input–output life-cycle assessment model. We find that the CO 2 scaling benefits of cohabitation are compellingly large, with the carbon footprint of a representative person cohabiting with others being 23% less, on average, than if that same person lived alone. Additionally, we find that household scale economies: 1) decrease in income, reflecting the rise in the percentage of household expenditures devoted to more rival goods and services; and 2) increase intuitively in household size, reflecting the direct expenditure sharing benefits of cohabitation. The combined downward pressure on scale economies from declining household size and rising incomes, typifying the trajectory of developing societies toward more and smaller households and rising affluence, places significant upward pressure on CO 2 emissions globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research links psychosocial stress to premature telomere shortening and accelerated human aging; however, this association has only been demonstrated in so-called "WEIRD" societies (Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic), where stress is typically lower and life expectancies longer. By contrast, we examine stress and telomere shortening in a non-Western setting among a highly stressed population with overall lower life expectancies: poor indigenous people--the Sahariya--who were displaced (between 1998 and 2002) from their ancestral homes in a central Indian wildlife sanctuary. In this setting, we examined adult populations in two representative villages, one relocated to accommodate the introduction of Asiatic lions into the sanctuary (n = 24 individuals), and the other newly isolated in the sanctuary buffer zone after their previous neighbors were moved (n = 22). Our research strategy combined physical stress measures via the salivary analytes cortisol and α-amylase with self-assessments of psychosomatic stress, ethnographic observations, and telomere length assessment [telomere-fluorescence in situ hybridization (TEL-FISH) coupled with 3D imaging of buccal cell nuclei], providing high-resolution data amenable to multilevel statistical analysis. Consistent with expectations, we found significant associations between each of our stress measures--the two salivary analytes and the psychosomatic symptom survey--and telomere length, after adjusting for relevant behavioral, health, and demographic traits. As the first study (to our knowledge) to link stress to telomere length in a non-WEIRD population, our research strengthens the case for stress-induced telomere shortening as a pancultural biomarker of compromised health and aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roughly 20 percent of current CO2 emissions will likely remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years (Solomon et al. ). Despite this, climate damages attributable to current emissions that occur beyond 150 years or so have almost no effect on the current optimal carbon tax in typical integrated assessment models. The source of this strong result is conventional economic discounting. The current paper builds on recent work by Gerlagh and Liski () and Iverson (J Environ Econ Manag 66:598-608, , ) to demonstrate this fact in a simple way and to show that it is not robust to plausible changes in the calibration approach for discounting parameters. Specifically, when time preference rates decline, a possibility supported by a wide variety of studies from psychology and economics, long run consumption impacts are potentially very important and so are long run features of the carbon cycle. The paper follows (Gerlagh and Liski ) in showing that this remains true even when the discounting parameters are calibrated to match historical interests rates, thus avoiding the main economic critique of the Stern Review (Stern ; Nordhaus ; Weitzman Rev Econ Stat 91:1-19 ). The effects are quantified using a formula for the optimal carbon tax from Iverson (J Environ Econ Manag 66:598-608, , ), which we use to decompose the current optimal tax into the cumulative contribution from consumption impacts at different horizons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disaster damage levels are matched to county-level nonprofit activity indicators. Using dynamic panel-data estimation, nonprofit net assets (and nonprofit revenue to a lesser extent) defined at this local level are found to be positively correlated with disaster event damage levels, consistent with a post-disaster giving mechanism. Magnitudes are relatively small, suggesting a distributed downstream flow of benefits to local nonprofits from larger national organizations. Furthermore, disaster damage at a lag is associated with only minor increases in the count of local nonprofit organizations at the county level. The relative impacts of assets and nonprofit counts in particular indicate that existing nonprofits have the established credibility and networks to be reliable conduits for post-disaster asset flows. If local nonprofits are an indicator of regional social capital, the findings suggest that disasters reveal the resilience of social capital structures in the face of crisis along the focal dimension of nonprofit activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The majority of research documenting the public health impacts of natural disasters focuses on the well-being of adults and their living children. Negative effects may also occur in the unborn, exposed to disaster stressors when critical organ systems are developing and when the consequences of exposure are large. Methods We exploit spatial and temporal variation in hurricane behaviour as a quasi-experimental design to assess whether fetal death is dose-responsive in the extent of hurricane damage. Data on births and fetal deaths are merged with Parish-level housing wreckage data. Fetal outcomes are regressed on housing wreckage adjusting for the maternal, fetal, placental and other risk factors. The average causal effect of maternal exposure to hurricane destruction is captured by difference-indifferences analyses. Results The adjusted odds of fetal death are 1.40 (1.07–1.83) and 2.37 (1.684–3.327) times higher in parishes suffering 10–50% and >50% wreckage to housing stock, respectively. For every 1% increase in the destruction of housing stock, we observe a 1.7% (1.1–2.4%) increase in fetal death. Of the 410 officially recorded fetal deaths in these parishes, between 117 and 205 may be attributable to hurricane destruction and postdisaster disorder. The estimated fetal death toll is 17.4–30.6% of the human death toll. Conclusions The destruction caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita imposed significant measurable losses in terms of fetal death. Postdisaster migratory dynamics suggest that the reported effects of maternal exposure to hurricane destruction on fetal death may be conservative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Previous studies link maternal blood lead (Pb) levels and pregnancy-related hypertensive disorders. Objective Assess the relationship between neighborhood soil Pb and maternal eclampsia risk. Methods Zip code summarized high density soil survey data of New Orleans collected before and after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (HKR) were merged with pregnancy outcome data on 75,501 mothers from the Louisiana office of public health. Cross-sectional logistic regression analyses are performed testing the association between pre-HKR accumulation of Pb in soils in thirty-two neighborhoods and eclampsia risk. Then we examine whether measured declines in soil Pb following the flooding of the city resulted in corresponding reductions of eclampsia risk. Results Cross-sectional analyses show that a one standard deviation increase in soil Pb increases the odds of eclampsia by a factor of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.31, 1.66). Mothers in zip code areas with soil Pb>333 mg/kg were 4.00 (95% CI: 3.00, 5.35) times more likely to experience eclampsia than mothers residing in neighborhoods with soil Pb<50 mg/kg. Difference-in-differences analyses capturing the exogenous reduction in soil Pb following the 2005 flooding of New Orleans indicate that mothers residing in zip codes experiencing decrease in soil Pb (−387.9 to −33.6 mg/kg) experienced a significant decline in eclampsia risk (OR=0.619; 95% CI: 0.397, 0.963). Conclusions Mothers residing in neighborhoods with high accumulation of Pb in soils are at heightened risk of experiencing eclampsia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. We analyzed singleton births to determine the relationship between birth weight and altitude exposure. Methods. We analyzed 715 213 singleton births across 74 counties from the western states of Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Washington from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2000. Birth data were obtained from the Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, for registered births. Results. Regression analyses supported previous research by showing that a 1000-meter increase in maternal altitude exposure in pregnancy was associated with a 75.9-gram reduction in birth weight (95% confidence interval = -84.1, -67.6). Quantile regression models indicated significant and near-uniform depressant effects from altitude exposure across the conditional distribution of birth weight. Bivariate sample-selection models showed that a 1000-meter increase in altitude exposure, over and above baseline residential altitude, decreased birth weight by an additional 58.8 grams (95% confidence interval = -98.4, -19.2). Conclusions. Because of calculable health care-related costs associated with lower birth weight, our reported results might be of interest to clinicians practicing at higher altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. We analyzed singleton births to determine the relationship between birth weight and altitude exposure. Methods. We analyzed 715 213 singleton births across 74 counties from the western states of Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Washington from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2000. Birth data were obtained from the Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, for registered births. Results. Regression analyses supported previous research by showing that a 1000-meter increase in maternal altitude exposure in pregnancy was associated with a 75.9-gram reduction in birth weight (95% confidence interval = -84.1, -67.6). Quantile regression models indicated significant and near-uniform depressant effects from altitude exposure across the conditional distribution of birth weight. Bivariate sample-selection models showed that a 1000-meter increase in altitude exposure, over and above baseline residential altitude, decreased birth weight by an additional 58.8 grams (95% confidence interval = -98.4, -19.2). Conclusions. Because of calculable health care-related costs associated with lower birth weight, our reported results might be of interest to clinicians practicing at higher altitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Soil lead in urban neighborhoods is a known predictor of child blood lead levels. In this paper, we address the question where one ought to concentrate soil sample collection efforts to efficiently predict children at-risk for soil Pb exposure. Two extensive data sets are combined, including 5467 surface soil samples collected from 286 census tracts, and geo-referenced blood Pb data for 55,551 children in metropolitan New Orleans, USA. Random intercept least squares, random intercept logistic, and quantile regression results indicate that soils collected within 1m adjacent to residential streets most reliably predict child blood Pb outcomes in child blood Pb levels. Regression decomposition results show that residential street soils account for 39.7% of between-neighborhood explained variation, followed by busy street soils (21.97%), open space soils (20.25%), and home foundation soils (18.71%). Just as the age of housing stock is used as a statistical shortcut for child risk of exposure to lead-based paint, our results indicate that one can shortcut the characterization of child risk of exposure to neighborhood soil Pb by concentrating sampling efforts within 1m and adjacent to residential and busy streets, while significantly reducing the total costs of collection and analysis. This efficiency gain can help advance proactive upstream, preventive methods of environmental Pb discovery. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study evaluates atmospheric concentrations of soil and Pb aerosols, and blood lead levels (BLLs) in 367 839 children (ages 0-10) in Detroit, Michigan from 2001 to 2009 to test a hypothesized soil → air dust → child pathway of contemporary Pb risk. Atmospheric soil and Pb show near-identical seasonal properties that match seasonal variation in children's BLLs. Resuspended soil appears to be a significant underlying source of atmospheric Pb. A 1% increase in the amount of resuspended soil results in a 0.39% increase in the concentration of Pb in the atmosphere (95% CI, 0.28 to 0.50%). In turn, atmospheric Pb significantly explains age-dependent variation in child BLLs. Other things held equal, a change of 0.0069 μg/m³ in atmospheric Pb increases BLL of a child 1 year of age by 10%, while approximately 3 times the concentration of Pb in air (0.023 μg/m³) is required to induce the same increase in BLL of a child 7 years of age. Similarly, a 0.0069 μg/m³ change in air Pb increases the odds of a child <1 year of age having a BLL ≥ 5 μg/dL by a multiplicative factor of 1.32 (95% CI, 1.26 to 1.37). Overall, the resuspension of Pb contaminated soil explains observed seasonal variation in child BLLs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We evaluate air Pb emissions and latent aggravated assault behavior at the scale of the city. We accomplish this by regressing annual Federal Bureau of Investigation aggravated assault rate records against the rise and fall of annual vehicle Pb emissions in Chicago (Illinois), Indianapolis (Indiana), Minneapolis (Minnesota), San Diego (California), Atlanta (Georgia), and New Orleans (Louisiana). Other things held equal, a 1% increase in tonnages of air Pb released 22years prior raises the present period aggravated assault rate by 0.46% (95% CI, 0.28 to 0.64). Overall our model explains 90% of the variation in aggravated assault across the cities examined. In the case of New Orleans, 85% of temporal variation in the aggravated assault rate is explained by the annual rise and fall of air Pb (total=10,179metric tons) released on the population of New Orleans 22years earlier. For every metric ton of Pb released 22years prior, a latent increase of 1.59 (95% CI, 1.36 to 1.83, p<0.001) aggravated assaults per 100,000 were reported. Vehicles consuming fuel containing Pb additives contributed much larger quantities of Pb dust than generally recognized. Our findings along with others predict that prevention of children''s lead exposure from lead dust now will realize numerous societal benefits two decades into the future, including lower rates of aggravated assault. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Soils in older areas of cities are highly contaminated by lead, due largely to past use of lead additives in gasoline, the use of lead in exterior paints, and industrial lead sources. Soils are not passive repositories and periodic re-suspension of fine lead contaminated soil dust particulates (or aerosols) may create seasonal variations of lead exposure for urban dwellers. Atmospheric soil and lead aerosol data from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) database were obtained for Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania), Detroit (Michigan), Chicago (Illinois), and Birmingham (Alabama), USA. In this study the temporal variations of atmospheric soil and lead aerosols in these four US cities were examined to determine whether re-suspended lead contaminated urban soil was the dominant source of atmospheric lead. Soil and lead-in-air concentrations were examined to ascertain whether lead aerosols follow seasonal patterns with highest concentrations during the summer and/or autumn. In addition, atmospheric soil and lead aerosol concentrations on weekends and Federal Government holidays were compared to weekdays to evaluate the possibility that automotive turbulence results in re-suspension of lead contaminated urban soil. The results show that the natural logs of atmospheric soil and lead aerosols were associated in Pittsburgh from April 2004 to July 2005 (R 2 =0.31, p <0.01), Detroit from November 2003 to July 2005 (R 2 =0.49, p <0.01), Chicago from November 2003 to August 2005 (R 2 =0.32, p < 0.01), and Birmingham from May 2004 to December 2006 (R 2 =0.47, p <0.01). Atmospheric soil and lead aerosols followed seasonal patterns with highest concentrations during the summer and/or autumn. Atmospheric soil and lead aerosols are 3.15 and 3.12 times higher, respectively, during weekdays than weekends and Federal Government holidays, suggesting that automotive traffic turbulence plays a significant role in re-suspension of contaminated roadside soils and dusts. In order to decrease urban lead aerosol concentrations, lead deposition and subsequent children’s seasonal exposure, lead contaminated urban soils need remediation or isolation because the legacy of lead continues to pose unnecessary and preventable health risks to urban dwellers. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Lindeman et al. [12] provide a unique solution to the relative importance of correlated predictors in multiple regression by averaging squared semi-partial correlations obtained for each predictor across all p! orderings. In this paper, we propose a series of predictor sensitivity statistics that complement the variance decomposition procedure advanced by Lindeman et al. [12]. First, we detail the logic of averaging over orderings as a technique of variance partitioning. Second, we assess predictors by conditional dominance analysis, a qualitative procedure designed to overcome defects in the Lindeman et al. [12] variance decomposition solution. Third, we introduce a suite of indices to assess the sensitivity of a predictor to model specification, advancing a series of sensitivity-adjusted contribution statistics that allow for more definite quantification of predictor relevance. Fourth, we describe the analytic efficiency of our proposed technique against the Budescu conditional dominance solution to the uneven contribution of predictors across all p! orderings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We investigate the relationship between maternal exposure to benzene and birth weight outcomes for resident births in the United States in 1996 and 1999, taking advantage of a natural experiment afforded by the regulation of benzene content of gasoline in various American cities. Regression results show that a unit increase (μg/m3) in maternal exposure to benzene reduces birth weight by 16.5g (95% CI, 17.6 to 15.4). A unit increase in benzene exposure increases the odds of a low birth weight event by 7%. Similarly, a 1μg/m3 increase in benzene concentration increases the odds of very low birth weight event by a multiplicative factor of 1.23 (95% CI, 1.19 to 1.28). Difference-in-differences analyses show that birth weight increased by 13.7g (95% CI, 10.7 to 16.8) and the risk of low birth weight decreased by a factor of .95 (95% CI, .93 to .98) in counties experiencing a 25% decline in benzene concentrations from 1996 to 1999. Public health policy and economic implications of results are discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Previous studies identified a curvilinear association between aggregated blood lead (BL) and soil lead (SL) data in New Orleans census tracts. In this study we investigate the relationships between SL (mg/kg), age of child, and BL (μg/dL) of 55,551 children in 280 census tracts in metropolitan New Orleans, 2000 to 2005. Analyses include random effects regression models predicting BL levels of children (μg/dL) and random effects logistic regression models predicting the odds of BL in children exceeding 15, 10, 7, 5, and 3μg/dL as a function of age and SL exposure. Economic benefits of SL reduction scenarios are estimated. A unit raise in median SL0.5 significantly increases the BL level in children (b =0.214 p =<0.01), and a unit change in Age0.5 significantly increases child BL (b =0.401, p =<0.01). A unit change in Age0.5 increases the odds of a child BL exceeding 10μg/dL by a multiplicative factor of 1.23 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.25), and a unit (mg/kg) addition of SL increases the odds of child BL>10μg/dL by a factor of 1.13 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.14). Extrapolating from regression results, we find that a shift in SL regulatory standard from 400 to 100mg/kg provides each child with an economic benefit ranging from $4710 to $12,624 ($US 2000). Children''s BL is a curvilinear function of both age and level of exposure to neighborhood SL. Therefore, a change in SL regulatory standard from 400 to 100mg/kg provides children with substantial economic benefit. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Prior to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (HKR), significant associations were noted between soil lead (SL) and blood lead (BL) in New Orleans. Engineering failure of New Orleans levees and canal walls after HKR set the stage for a quasi- experiment to evaluate BL responses by 13 306 children to reductions in SL High density soil surveying conducted in 46 census tracts before HKR was repeated after the flood. Paired t test results show that SL decreased from 328.54 to 203.33 mg/kg post-HKR (t= 3.296, p ≤ 0.01). Decreases in SL are associated with declines in children's BL response (r = 0.308, p ≤ 0.05). When SL decreased at least 1%, median children's BL declined 1.55 μg/dL Declines in median BL are largest in census tracts with ≥50% decrease in SL Also individual BL in children was predicted as a function of SL, adjusting for age, year of observation, and depth of flood waters. At the individual scale, BL decreased significantly in post-HKR as a function of SL with BL decreases ranging from b = -1.20 to -1.65 μg/dL, depending on the decline of SL end whether children were born in the post-HKR period. Our results support policy to improve soil conditions for children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A basic proposition of 'agency theory' is that output-based performance incentives encourage greater effort. However, studies find that incentive schemes can distort effort if rewards for performance are discrete or non-linear. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Community Rating System (CRS) is a flood mitigation programme with a non-linear incentive design. Under this programme, localities are incentivised to implement a mix of 18 flood mitigation activities. Each activity is performance scored, with accumulated scores corresponding to a percent discount on flood insurance premiums for residents that hold National Flood Insurance policies. Discounts range from 0 to 45% and increase discretely in increments of 5%. With multivariate statistical and Geographic Information Systems analytic techniques, tests are made to find whether observed changes in annual CRS scores for participating localities in Florida are explained by non-linear incentives, adjusting for hydrologic conditions, flood disaster histories, socio-economic and human capital controls that can plausibly account for local mitigation activity scores over time. Results indicate that local jurisdictions are discount-seeking, with mitigation efforts partially driven by the non-linear incentive design of the CRS programme. The paper ends with recommendations to improve the operation FEMA's flood mitigation programme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze household flood insurance purchases in Florida from 1999 to 2005, and the extent to which household insurance purchases correspond with flood mitigation activities by local governments involved in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Community Rating System (CRS). Regression results indicate that household flood insurance purchases correlate strongly with local government mitigation activities, adjusting for hazard experience, hazard proximity, and community demography. Policy implications of this observed relationship are discussed, assuming four temporal order and floodplain development scenarios, with particular attention to the congruence of outcomes relative to policy objectives. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Studies on the impacts of hurricanes, tropical storms, and tornados indicate that poor communities of colour suffer disproportionately in human death and injury. 2 Few quantitative studies have been conducted on the degree to which flood events affect socially vulnerable populations. We address this research void by analysing 832 countywide flood events in Texas from 1997–2001. Specifically, we examine whether geographic localities characterised by high percentages of socially vulnerable populations experience significantly more casualties due to flood events, adjusting for characteristics of the natural and built environment. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression models indicate that the odds of a flood casualty increase with the level of precipitation on the day of a flood event, flood duration, property damage caused by the flood, population density, and the presence of socially vulnerable populations. Odds decrease with the number of dams, the level of precipitation on the day before a recorded flood event, and the extent to which localities have enacted flood mitigation strategies. The study concludes with comments on hazard-resilient communities and protection of casualty-prone populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study analyzes the spatial distribution of healthy modes of transportation (cycling and walking commuting) at the county scale. Geographic information systems, negative binomial, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression techniques are used to test four types of geographic covariates: built, natural, socioeconomic, and civic environments. Descriptive, GIS, and regression results indicate that the expected count of cycling and walking commuters in a county increases significantly with unit changes in population density, natural amenities, education and wealth, and estimates of local civic concern. Expected counts decrease significantly by unit changes in pollution and the average distance traveled to work by a typical commuter. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Problem: Solar energy has potential to solve many types of planning problems. Knowing where existing household solar energy users are located and what factors explain this distribution can help craft appropriate local policies. Purpose: This study analyzes the spatial distribution of households who heat their homes with solar energy across the contiguous United States. Methods: We use geographic information systems (GIS) and zero-inflated negative binomial statistical techniques to test three sets of geographic predictors at the scale of the county: environmental, economic, and sociopolitical. Results and conclusions: Descriptive, GIS, and regression results indicate that the expected number of households using solar energy to heat their homes increases significantly with the amount of solar radiation received, but that other environmental, socioeconomic, and political factors are also significant predictors. The number of solar households in a county is a positive function of wealth (operationalized as median home value), urbanization, and the percentage of residents in the peak period of the lifecycle-consumption curve. Having a solar energy technology provider in the county did not appear to be significant. Finally, we confirmed that households heating with solar energy increase with the percentage of persons who vote for the Democratic Party in presidential elections and with local government involvement in the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives. Takeaway for practice: Our model can be used to enhance adoption of solar technologies by showing which localities possess most of the attributes that predict solar use, but adoption lags expectations. This can help design efficient and effective local plans and incentives calibrated to local environmental, economic, and sociopolitical conditions. Research support: Portions of the data collection for this research were supported under Award No. NA03OAR4310164 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or the Department of Commerce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the reasons why a US locality would voluntarily commit to the Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) campaign. Using geographic information systems analytic techniques, we map and measure a locality's vulnerability to climate-change impacts at the county level of spatial precision. We analyze multiple measures of climate-change vulnerability, including expected temperature change, extreme weather events, and coastal proximity, as well as economic variables, demographic variables, and civic-participation variables that constitute a locality's socioeconomic capacity to commit to costly climate-change policy initiatives, Bivariate and logistic regression results indicate that CCP-committed localities are quantitatively different to noncommitted localities on both climate-change risk and socioeconomic-capacity dimensions. On vulnerability measures, the odds of CCP-campaign participation increase significantly with the number of people killed and injured by extreme weather events, projected temperature change, and coastal proximity. On socioeconomic-capacity measures, the odds of CCP-campaign involvement increase with the percentage of citizens that vote Democrat and recycle, as well as the number of nonprofit organizations with an environment focus. The odds decrease in a county area as the percentage of the labor force employed in carbon-intensive industries increases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods continue to pose the greatest threat to the property and safety of human communities among all natural hazards in the United States. This study examines the relationship between the built environment and flood impacts in Texas, which consistently sustains the most damage from flooding of any other state in the country. Specifically, we calculate property damage resulting from 423 flood events between 1997 and 2001 at the county level. We identify the effect of several built environment measures, including wetland alteration, impervious surface, and dams on reported property damage while controlling for biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Statistical results suggest that naturally occurring wetlands play a particularly important role in mitigating flood damage. These findings provide guidance to planners and flood managers on how to alleviate most effectively the costly impacts of foods at the community level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the distribution of commercial treatment, storage, and disposal facilities (TSDFs) of hazardous waste in the southeast. Four hypotheses are tested: (1) economic rationality, (2) social inequity, (3) civic capital, and (4) scientific rationality. The data set is a match of records on operational TSDFs and large quantity generators (LQGs) of hazardous waste from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, demographic data from the U.S. Census Bureau, nonprofit organization data from the National Center for Charitable Statistics, and seismic hazard and hydrologic data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Logistic regression results indicate that location outcomes are predictable by the distribution of civic capital assets, the racial composition of a community, the hydrologic suitability of a land use, and TSDF proximity to LQGs. The concentration of LQG activity and the percentage of African Americans in a neighborhood are the most consistent predictors of TSDF location outcomes across spatial measures of risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although there is a growing body of research examining public perceptions of global climate change, little work has focused on the role of place and proximity in shaping these perceptions. This study extends previous conceptual models explaining risk perception associated with global climate change by adding a spatial dimension. Specifically, Geographic Information Systems and spatial analytical techniques are used to map and measure survey respondents' physical risk associated with expected climate change. Using existing spatial data, multiple measures of climate change vulnerability are analyzed along with demographic, attitudinal, and social contextual variables derived from a representative national survey to predict variation in risk perception. Bivariate correlation and multivariate regression analyses are used to identify and explain the most important indicators shaping individual risk perception. Analysis of the data suggests that the relationship between actual and perceived risk is driven by specific types of physical conditions and experiences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper expands the relevance of the collective interest model of mass political action to explain collective-action behavior in the context of global warming and climate change. The analysis is an attempt to answer Ostrom’s call for a behavioral model of collective action that can be generalized beyond political protest to other collective-action problems. We elaborate, specify, and empirically test a collective interest model approach to citizen policy support, environmental political participation, and environmental behavior related to the issue of global warming. Key elements of the collective interest model—perceived risk, personal efficacy, and environmental values—are found to be directly, and positively, related to support of government policies and personal behaviors that affect global warming. We also discuss the links between the collective interest model and other important approaches to political behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social science theories of ethnic division and antipathy are tested empirically using survey and zip code data for representative samples of whites, African Americans, and Mexican Americans in Texas. Ordered logistic regression tests estimate the effects of theoretically relevant variables on probabilities of racial and ethnic out-group social distance. Competing social science theories of ethnic and racial social distance are tested for multiple groups. Statistical support is found for group attachment/identity theories and realistic group conflict theories in explaining variance in out-group social closeness. The socioeconomic theory was not found to be an important predictor of out-group social closeness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising economic cost of floods in the United States cannot be explained solely by monetary inflation or growth in coastal populations. Damaging flood events are also influenced by the way society plans for and physically develops its communities, influencing where structures and impervious surfaces are concentrated and how hydrological systems are altered. We analyze 383 nonhurricane flood events in Florida counties between 1997 and 2001 to isolate how planning decisions and their effects on the built environment affect property damage caused by floods. Our results suggest that alteration of naturally occurring wetlands significantly increases the property damage caused by floods, all else equal. Also, nonstructural methods such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Community Rating System, while providing inexpensive means of reducing property damage directly, may also indirectly encourage more development in hazardous areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article adapts a theory of ecological modernization to characterize countries by their economic, political, and cultural development to estimate their structural and strategic readiness to commit and comply with the Kyoto Protocol. Hypotheses logically derived from ecological modernization theory perform as expected, with substantial variation in Kyoto Protocol ratification explained by our variable pool. Results from logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression tests show that democratic openness, gross domestic product (GDP) output per unit of energy input, CO2 emissions per capita, and record of international cooperation on transboundary environmental problems significantly predict whether or not a country is party to the Protocol, and how quickly a country submits an instrument of ratification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate scientists note that the effects of climate change vary regionally. Citizen willingness to absorb the costs of adaptation and mitigation policies may correspond with these place-specific effects. Geographic information systems (GIS) analytic techniques are used to map and measure survey respondents' climate change risk at various levels of spatial resolution and precision. Spatial data are used to analyze multiple measures of climate change vulnerability along with demographic, attitudinal, and perception-based variables derived from a representative national survey of U.S. residents to predict variation in support for interventionist climate change policies. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression results show that objective risk measures explain a modest amount of variation in our dependent variable. The effect of risk perception on climate policy support is far more robust. Of all variables examined, the extent to which citizens regard climate change as threatening to their material well-being drives support for costly climate change policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors argue that age, sex, and racial differentials in swimming participation are conditioned by the availability of swimming infrastructure and the principle of social exclusivity that limits access of lower status groupings, even where pools and programs are available. In turn, the authors argue that participation in swimming and where that activity occurs (pool versus open water) affect life chances (accidental drowning rates) across status groups. Multiple data sources were used to operationalize measures of swimming participation, social exclusivity, conditions associated with the development of swimming infrastructure, risk for a place to drown, and age, sex, and racial accidental drowning and submersion rates. Given that some progress has been made toward lessening social exclusivity with lower status groups now participating in many sports, and the under-reporting of deaths from accidental drowning and submersion, the authors believe that the confirmation of their hypotheses is conservative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In February of 2016, the City of Flint, Michigan commenced the FAST start initiative with the aim "to get the lead out of Flint" by replacing lead and galvanized steel service lines throughout the city. An estimated 29,100 parcels are scheduled for service line replacement (SLR) at an expected cost of $172 million. The lead exposure benefits of SLR are evaluated by analyzing Sentinel data on hundreds of repeatedly sampled homes in Flint from February 16, 2016 to July 21, 2017, comparing water lead (WL) in homes with and without lead service lines. Samples taken from homes with lead service lines were significantly more likely to exceed specified thresholds of WL than homes without lead service lines. Second, regardless of service line material type, sampled homes experienced significant reductions in WL with elapsed time from Flint's switchback to water provided by the Detroit Water and Sewage Department. Third, the risk of exceedance of WL > 15 μg/L was uncorrelated with service line material type. These results are robust to sample restrictions, period stratification, time operations, reference group definitions, and statistical modeling procedures. On the question of what is gained from SLR over optimal corrosion control techniques, we simulated age-specific lead uptake (μg/day) and blood lead levels (μg/dL) for children in Flint at 16 and 90 weeks of elapsed time from Flint's switchback to Detroit water. At 90 weeks from the switchback in water source, the quantity of water lead consumed by children in homes with lead service lines decreased 93%, as compared to 16 weeks. Lead exposure benefits of SLR have declined in time, with modest differences in lead uptake across homes with different service lines. In light of results, policy considerations for Flint and nationwide are discussed. • Risk of water lead exposure across households varies by service line type. • Lead service lines are more risky than galvanized steel and other material service lines. • The risk of water lead exposure declined discernably in time for all service line types. • The effect of the passage of time is most evident at lower thresholds of water lead concentration. • The risk of exceedance of WLL >15 μgPb/L is likely governed by factors other than service line material type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies find that per capita carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions decrease with household size and urban density. The demographic trends of declining household size and dense urbanization therefore produce countervailing effects with respect to emissions. We posit that both household and urban economies are driven by proximity and realized through sharing carbon-intensive goods. With detailed data from the United States Consumer Expenditure Survey, we construct a dataset of CO 2 emissions at the household level and leverage a unique measure of residential density to estimate household and urban economies. Our estimates show that dense urban areas have per capita emissions roughly 20% lower than rural areas, and that adding an additional member to a household reduces per capita emissions by about 6%. We also find that household economies are about twice as large in rural areas as in dense urban areas and develop an explanation for this phenomenon. In theory, the carbon benefits of dense urbanization have the potential to offset the effects of declining household size. However, using historical US Census data and extrapolating from our estimates, we find that lost household economies have outpaced increased urban economies over the past fifty years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reporting of measures of effect size has become increasingly important in psychology. A Monte Carlo resampling permutation procedure is introduced to find near-optimum maximum values for Smart's τc measure for two-way ordinal contingency tables, also termed Kendall's τc since Kendall introduced τa and τb. Comparisons between resampling and exact procedures demonstrate the accuracy and utility of resampling measures of effect size for two-way ordinal contingency tables. The resampling procedure is shown to be more precise than the traditional method of standardizing τ,c. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article attempts to respond to Ostrom's call for a behavioral model of collective action by generalizing the collective interest model of mass political action to explain citizen policy support and personal behavioral intentions in the context of air quality policy The collective action problems inherent in air quality policy provide a critical research setting for testing hypotheses of the collective interest model. Key elements of the collective interest model—perceived risk, trust in policy elites, knowledge of the policy problem, and efficacy—are found to be directly, and positively, related to support of government policies and intentions to engage in personal behaviors that might improve air quality The article discusses the implications for using the collective interest model as general behavioral theory of collective action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the global spread of Masters Swimming (MS) focusing on the economic, social, and demographic conditions associated with its initiation in the United States and its international growth. We characterize MS as a modern sport and look at its subcultural form, organizational structure, practices, and early pattern of organizational growth from bottom to top. Then we describe the top down role of La Federation Internationale de Natation Amateur (FINA) in supplying legitimacy, resources, organizational coherence, and corporate sponsors to spread the sport among FINA members. By establishing mutually beneficial relations with corporate sponsors, MS rapidly commodified and diffused to countries and territories with middle to high socio-economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When citizens hold multiple values relevant to their policy opinions, they might experience value conflict, value reconciliation or make a value trade-off. Yet, it is unclear which individuals are able to manage their multiple values in these ways. We posit a sophistication-interaction theory of value pluralism where the most politically sophisticated individuals are able to reconcile the existence of multiple values, thus increasing the stability of their policy opinions. We test this hypothesis using a series of heteroskedastic graded item response theory models of public opinion toward policies related to climate change. We find that people structure their policy preferences toward climate change policies in values toward the environment and the economy, but only the most sophisticated citizens are able to reconcile the potential conflict between these values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT We examine the contribution to economic growth of entrepreneurial marketplace information within a regional endogenous growth framework. Entrepreneurs are posited to provide an input to economic growth through the information revealed by their successes and failures. We empirically identify this information source with the regional variation in establishment births and deaths. To account for the potential endogeneity caused by forward-looking entrepreneurs, we utilize instruments based on historic mining activity. We find that the information spillover component of local establishment birth and death rates have significant positive effects on subsequent entrepreneurship and employment growth for U.S. counties and metropolitan areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relatively low level of concern about climate change among Americans has important implications for climate policy. While many studies have examined individual characteristics associated with climate change attitudes, fewer studies have considered the effects of environmental conditions on such attitudes. Here, we use two national samples of American adults to explore the impact of abnormal daily temperatures on levels of concern about climate change. We test the hypotheses that (1) abnormally warm temperatures, and (2) both abnormally warm and abnormally cool temperatures are associated with higher levels of concern. Using a generalized ordinal logit, we find that the quadratic form of deviation from mean temperature on the date of the survey is significantly associated with higher levels of concern, thus supporting the second hypothesis. We discuss several theoretical frameworks that may explain this result including availability bias, mental models, and implicit stimuli, and the implications for climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the authors discuss public opinion on climate change. They argue that increased confidence among scientists about the reality of human-induced climate change (CC) has failed to translate into a public consensus within the U.S., adding that public opinion polls indicate a decline in public acceptance of CC. Topics include the challenges that climate skepticism poses for the scientific community, sources of opinion formation on CC, and what can be done change public opinion.

Climate scientists have played a significant role in investigating global climate change. In the USA, a debate has swirled about whether a consensus on climate change exists among reputable scientists and this has entered the policy process. In order to better understand the views of US climate scientists, we conducted an empirical survey of US climate scientists ( N = 468) in 2005, and compared the results with the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science report and policy summaries. Our results reveal that survey respondents generally agree about the nature, causes, and consequences of climate change, and are in agreement with IPCC findings. We also found that there is strong support for a variety of policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]