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Abstract Background Official descriptive data from France showed a strong increase in breast-cancer incidence between 1980 to 2005 without a corresponding change in breast-cancer mortality. This study quantifies the part of incidence increase due to secular changes in risk factor exposure and in overdiagnosis due to organised or opportunistic screening. Overdiagnosis was defined as non progressive tumours diagnosed as cancer at histology or progressive cancer that would remain asymptomatic until time of death for another cause. Methods Comparison between age-matched cohorts from 1980 to 2005. All women residing in France and born 1911-1915, 1926-1930 and 1941-1945 are included. Sources are official data sets and published French reports on screening by mammography, age and time specific breast-cancer incidence and mortality, hormone replacement therapy, alcohol and obesity. Outcome measures include breast-cancer incidence differences adjusted for changes in risk factor distributions between pairs of age-matched cohorts who had experienced different levels of screening intensity. Results There was an 8-fold increase in the number of mammography machines operating in France between 1980 and 2000. Opportunistic and organised screening increased over time. In comparison to age-matched cohorts born 15 years earlier, recent cohorts had adjusted incidence proportion over 11 years that were 76% higher [95% confidence limits (CL) 67%, 85%] for women aged 50 to 64 years and 23% higher [95% CL 15%, 31%] for women aged 65 to 79 years. Given that mortality did not change correspondingly, this increase in adjusted 11 year incidence proportion was considered as an estimate of overdiagnosis. Conclusions Breast cancer may be overdiagnosed because screening increases diagnosis of slowly progressing non-life threatening cancer and increases misdiagnosis among women without progressive cancer. We suggest that these effects could largely explain the reported "epidemic" of breast cancer in France. Better predictive classification of tumours is needed in order to avoid unnecessary cancer diagnoses and subsequent procedures.

Abstract Background Mental disorders are strongly associated with excess suicide risk, and successful treatment might prevent suicide. Since 1990, and particularly after 1998, there has been a substantial increase in mental health service resources in Norway. This study aimed to investigate whether these changes have had an impact on suicide mortality. Methods We used Poisson regression analyses to assess the effect of changes in five mental health services variables on suicide mortality in five Norwegian health regions during the period 1990-2006. These variables included: number of man-labour years by all personnel, number of discharges, number of outpatient consultations, number of inpatient days, and number of hospital beds. Adjustments were made for sales of alcohol, sales of antidepressants, education, and unemployment. Results In the period 1990-2006, we observed a total of 9480 suicides and the total suicide rate declined by 26%. None of the mental health services variables were significantly associated with female or male suicide mortality in the adjusted analyses (p > 0.05). Sales of antidepressants (adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio = 0.98; 95% CI = 0.97-1.00) and sales of alcohol (adjusted IRR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.18-1.72) were significantly associated with female suicide mortality; education (adjusted IRR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.79-0.94) and unemployment (adjusted IRR = 0.91; 95% CI = 0.85-0.97) were significantly associated with male suicide mortality. Conclusions The adjusted analyses in the present study indicate that increased resources in Norwegian mental health services in the period 1990-2006 were statistically unrelated to suicide mortality.

Abstract Background Individuals who have attempted suicide are at increased risk of subsequent suicidal behavior. Since 1983, a community-based suicide prevention team has been operating in the municipality of Bærum, Norway. This study aimed to test the effectiveness of the team's interventions in preventing repeated suicide attempts and suicide deaths, as part of a chain of care model for all general hospital treated suicide attempters. Methods Data has been collected consecutively since 1984 and a follow-up was conducted on all individuals admitted to the general hospital after a suicide attempt. The risk of repeated suicide attempt and suicide were comparatively examined in subjects who received assistance from the suicide prevention team in addition to treatment as usual versus those who received treatment as usual only. Logistic regression and Cox regression were used to analyze the data. Results Between January 1984 and December 2007, 1,616 subjects were registered as having attempted suicide; 197 of them (12%) made another attempt within 12 months. Compared to subjects who did not receive assistance from the suicide prevention team, individuals involved in the prevention program did not have a significantly different risk of repeated attempt within 6 months (adjusted OR = 1.08; 95% CI = 0.66-1.74), 12 months (adjusted OR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.57-1.30), or 5 years (adjusted RR = 0.90; 95% CI = 0.67-1.22) after their first recorded attempt. There was also no difference in risk of suicide (adjusted RR = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.46-1.57). Previous suicide attempts, marital status, and employment status were significantly associated with a repeated suicide attempt within 6 and 12 months (p < 0.05). Alcohol misuse, employment status, and previous suicide attempts were significantly associated with a repeated attempt within 5 years (p < 0.05) while marital status became non-significant (p > 0.05). With each year of age, the risk of suicide increased by 3% (p < 0.05). Conclusions The present study did not find any differences in the risk of fatal and non-fatal suicidal behavior between subjects who received treatment as usual combined with community assistance versus subjects who received only treatment as usual. However, assistance from the community team was mainly offered to attempters who were not receiving sufficient support from treatment as usual and was accepted by 50-60% of those deemed eligible. Thus, obtaining similar outcomes for individuals, all of whom were clinically judged to have different needs, could in itself be considered a desirable result.

Abstract Background In the period 1990-2006, strong and almost equivalent increases in sales figures of selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitors (SSRIs) were observed in all Nordic countries. The sales figures of tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) dropped in Norway and Sweden in the nineties. After 2000, sales figures of TCAs have been almost constant in all Nordic countries. The potentially toxic effect of TCAs in overdose was an important reason for replacing TCAs with SSRIs when treating depression. We studied whether the rapid increase in sales of SSRIs and the corresponding decline in TCAs in the period 1990-98 were associated with a decline in suicide rates. Methods Aggregated suicide rates for the period 1975-2006 in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) were obtained from the national causes-of-death registries. The sales figures of antidepressants were provided from the wholesale registers in each of the Nordic countries. Data were analysed using Fisher's exact test and Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results There was no statistical association (P = 1.0) between the increase of sales figures of SSRIs and the decline in suicide rates. There was no statistical association (P = 1.0) between the decrease in the sale figures of TCAs and change in suicide rates either. Conclusions We found no evidence for the rapid increase in use of SSRIs and the corresponding decline in sales of TCAs being associated with a decline in the suicide rates in the Nordic countries in the period 1990-98. We did not find any inverse relationship between the increase in sales of SSRIs and declining suicide rates in four Nordic countries.

Abstract Background Overdiagnosis in cancer screening is the detection of cancer lesions that would otherwise not have been detected. It is arguably the most important harm. We quantified overdiagnosis in the Danish mammography screening programme, which is uniquely suited for this purpose, as only 20% of the Danish population has been offered organised mammography screening over a long time-period. Methods We collected incidence rates of carcinoma in situ and invasive breast cancer in areas with and without screening over 13 years with screening (1991-2003), and 20 years before its introduction (1971-1990). We explored the incidence increase comparing unadjusted incidence rates and used Poisson regression analysis to compensate for the background incidence trend, variation in age distribution and geographical variation in incidence. Results For the screened age group, 50 to 69 years, we found an overdiagnosis of 35% when we compared unadjusted incidence rates for the screened and non-screened areas, but after compensating for a small decline in incidence in older, previously screened women. Our adjusted Poisson regression analysis indicated a relative risk of 1.40 (95% CI: 1.35-1.45) for the whole screening period, and a potential compensatory drop in older women of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.88-0.96), yielding an overdiagnosis of 33%, which we consider the most reliable estimate. The drop in previously screened women was only present in one of the two screened regions and was small in absolute numbers. Discussion One in four breast cancers diagnosed in the screened age group in the Danish screening programme is overdiagnosed. Our estimate for Denmark is lower than that for comparable countries, likely because of lower uptake, lower recall rates and lower detection rates of carcinoma in situ.

A study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine examined breast cancer overdiagnosis among women aged 70 years or older in the United States who had recently been screened. The study found that there was no compensatory decline in breast cancer incidence over time, indicating that mammography screening does not lead to appreciably earlier diagnosis. The study also highlighted the challenges in presenting estimates of overdiagnosis and the confusion it can cause for physicians and women. The authors suggested that mammography screening may detect lesions that resemble cancer but do not grow like cancer does. [Extracted from the article]

Abstract Background Official descriptive data from France showed a strong increase in breast-cancer incidence between 1980 to 2005 without a corresponding change in breast-cancer mortality. This study quantifies the part of incidence increase due to secular changes in risk factor exposure and in overdiagnosis due to organised or opportunistic screening. Overdiagnosis was defined as non progressive tumours diagnosed as cancer at histology or progressive cancer that would remain asymptomatic until time of death for another cause. Methods Comparison between age-matched cohorts from 1980 to 2005. All women residing in France and born 1911-1915, 1926-1930 and 1941-1945 are included. Sources are official data sets and published French reports on screening by mammography, age and time specific breast-cancer incidence and mortality, hormone replacement therapy, alcohol and obesity. Outcome measures include breast-cancer incidence differences adjusted for changes in risk factor distributions between pairs of age-matched cohorts who had experienced different levels of screening intensity. Results There was an 8-fold increase in the number of mammography machines operating in France between 1980 and 2000. Opportunistic and organised screening increased over time. In comparison to age-matched cohorts born 15 years earlier, recent cohorts had adjusted incidence proportion over 11 years that were 76% higher [95% confidence limits (CL) 67%, 85%] for women aged 50 to 64 years and 23% higher [95% CL 15%, 31%] for women aged 65 to 79 years. Given that mortality did not change correspondingly, this increase in adjusted 11 year incidence proportion was considered as an estimate of overdiagnosis. Conclusions Breast cancer may be overdiagnosed because screening increases diagnosis of slowly progressing non-life threatening cancer and increases misdiagnosis among women without progressive cancer. We suggest that these effects could largely explain the reported "epidemic" of breast cancer in France. Better predictive classification of tumours is needed in order to avoid unnecessary cancer diagnoses and subsequent procedures.