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Abstract We present the open-source SIMUnet code, designed to fit Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) Wilson coefficient alongside Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the proton. SIMUnet can perform SMEFT global fits, as well as simultaneous fits of the PDFs and of an arbitrarily large number of SMEFT degrees of freedom, by including both PDF-dependent and PDF-independent observables. SIMUnet can also be used to determine whether the effects of any New Physics models can be fitted away in a global fit of PDFs. SIMUnet is built upon the open-source NNPDF code and is released together with documentation, and tutorials. To illustrate the functionalities of the new tool, we present a new global analysis of the SMEFT Wilson coefficients accounting for their interplay with the PDFs. We increment our previous analysis of the LHC Run II top quark data with both (i) the Higgs production and decay rates data from the LHC, and (ii) the precision electroweak and diboson measurements from LEP and the LHC.

Abstract We extend the existing leading (LO), next-to-leading (NLO), and next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) NNPDF4.0 sets of parton distribution functions (PDFs) to approximate next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order ( $$\hbox {aN}^3\hbox {LO}$$ aN 3 LO ). We construct an approximation to the $$\hbox {N}^3\hbox {LO}$$ N 3 LO splitting functions that includes all available partial information from both fixed-order computations and from small and large x resummation, and estimate the uncertainty on this approximation by varying the set of basis functions used to construct the approximation. We include known $$\hbox {N}^3\hbox {LO}$$ N 3 LO corrections to deep-inelastic scattering structure functions and extend the FONLL general-mass scheme to $$\mathcal {O}\left( \alpha _s^3\right) $$ O α s 3 accuracy. We determine a set of $$\hbox {aN}^3\hbox {LO}$$ aN 3 LO PDFs by accounting both for the uncertainty on splitting functions due to the incomplete knowledge of $$\hbox {N}^3\hbox {LO}$$ N 3 LO terms, and to the uncertainty related to missing higher corrections (MHOU), estimated by scale variation, through a theory covariance matrix formalism. We assess the perturbative stability of the resulting PDFs, we study the impact of MHOUs on them, and we compare our results to the $$\hbox {aN}^3\hbox {LO}$$ aN 3 LO PDFs from the MSHT group. We examine the phenomenological impact of $$\hbox {aN}^3\hbox {LO}$$ aN 3 LO corrections on parton luminosities at the LHC, and give a first assessment of the impact of $$\hbox {aN}^3\hbox {LO}$$ aN 3 LO PDFs on the Higgs and Drell–Yan total production cross-sections. We find that the $$\hbox {aN}^3\hbox {LO}$$ aN 3 LO NNPDF4.0 PDFs are consistent within uncertainties with their NNLO counterparts, that they improve the description of the global dataset and the perturbative convergence of Higgs and Drell–Yan cross-sections, and that MHOUs on PDFs decrease substantially with the increase of perturbative order.

Abstract We include uncertainties due to missing higher order corrections to QCD computations (MHOU) used in the determination of parton distributions (PDFs) in the recent NNPDF4.0 set of PDFs. We use our previously published methodology, based on the treatment of MHOUs and their full correlations through a theory covariance matrix determined by scale variation, now fully incorporated in the new NNPDF theory pipeline. We assess the impact of the inclusion of MHOUs on the NNPDF4.0 central values and uncertainties, and specifically show that they lead to improved consistency of the PDF determination. PDF uncertainties on physical predictions in the data region are consequently either unchanged or moderately reduced by the inclusion of MHOUs.

Abstract We construct a set of parton distribution functions (PDFs), based on the recent NNPDF4.0 PDF set, that also include a photon PDF. The photon PDF is constructed using the LuxQED formalism, while QED evolution accounting for $${\mathcal {O}}\left( \alpha \right) $$ O α , $${\mathcal {O}}\left( \alpha \alpha _s\right) $$ O α α s , and $${\mathcal {O}}\left( \alpha ^2\right) $$ O α 2 corrections is implemented and benchmarked by means of the EKO code. We investigate the impact of QED effects on NNPDF4.0, and compare our results both to our previous NNPDF3.1QED PDF set and to other recent PDF sets that include the photon. We assess the impact of photon-initiated processes and electroweak corrections on a variety of representative LHC processes, and find that they can reach the 5% level in vector boson pair production at large invariant mass.

Abstract The interpretation of LHC data, and the assessment of possible hints of new physics, require the precise knowledge of the proton structure in terms of parton distribution functions (PDFs). We present a systematic methodology designed to determine whether and how global PDF fits might inadvertently ‘fit away’ signs of new physics in the high-energy tails of the distributions. We showcase a scenario for the High-Luminosity LHC, in which the PDFs may completely absorb such signs of new physics, thus biasing theoretical predictions and interpretations. We discuss strategies to single out the effects in this scenario, and disentangle the inconsistencies that stem from them. Our study brings to light the synergy between the high luminosity programme at the LHC and future low-energy non-LHC measurements of large-x sea quark distributions. The analysis code used in this work is made public so that any users can test the robustness of the signal associated to a given BSM model against absorption by the PDFs.

Abstract We assess the impact of top quark production at the LHC on global analyses of parton distributions (PDFs) and of Wilson coefficients in the SMEFT, both separately and in the framework of a joint interpretation. We consider the broadest top quark dataset to date containing all available measurements based on the full Run II luminosity. First, we determine the constraints that this dataset provides on the large-x gluon PDF and study its consistency with other gluon-sensitive measurements. Second, we carry out a SMEFT interpretation of the same dataset using state-of-the-art SM and EFT theory cal- culations, resulting in bounds on 25 Wilson coefficients modifying top quark interactions. Subsequently, we integrate the two analyses within the SIMUnet approach to realise a simul- taneous determination of the SMEFT PDFs and the EFT coefficients and identify regions in the parameter space where their interplay is most phenomenologically relevant. We also demonstrate how to separate eventual BSM signals from QCD effects in the interpretation of top quark measurements at the LHC.

Abstract We present the MCscales approach for incorporating scale uncertainties in parton distribution functions (PDFs). The new methodology builds on the Monte Carlo sampling for propagating experimental uncertainties into the PDF space that underlies the NNPDF approach, but it extends it to the space of factorisation and renomalisation scales. A prior probability is assigned to each scale combinations set in the theoretical predictions used to obtain each PDF replica in the Monte Carlo ensemble and a posterior probability is obtained by selecting replicas that satisfy fit-quality criteria. Our approach allows one to exactly match the scale variations in the PDFs with those in the computation of the partonic cross sections, thus accounting for the full correlations between the two. We illustrate the opportunities for phenomenological exploration made possible by our methodology for a variety of LHC observables. Sets of PDFs enriched with scale information are provided, along with a set of tools to use them.

Abstract We show how an inaccurate determination of experimental uncertainty correlations in high-precision LHC measurements may undermine the reliability of the associated $$\chi ^2$$ χ 2 . We formulate the problem rigorously, and devise a regularisation procedure that increases the stability of the $$\chi ^2$$ χ 2 by altering the covariance matrix of the measurement as little as possible. We apply the procedure to the NNPDF4.0 global analysis of parton distribution functions that utilises a large amount of LHC measurements. We find that the regularised $$\chi ^2$$ χ 2 of the NNPDF4.0 determination is lowered by about $$3\sigma $$ 3 σ , without significantly altering the resulting PDFs upon refitting.

Abstract We present a new set of parton distribution functions (PDFs) based on a fully global dataset and machine learning techniques: NNPDF4.0. We expand the NNPDF3.1 determination with 44 new datasets, mostly from the LHC. We derive a novel methodology through hyperparameter optimization, leading to an efficient fitting algorithm built upon stochastic gradient descent. We use NNLO QCD calculations and account for NLO electroweak corrections and nuclear uncertainties. Theoretical improvements in the PDF description include a systematic implementation of positivity constraints and integrability of sum rules. We validate our methodology by means of closure tests and “future tests” (i.e. tests of backward and forward data compatibility), and assess its stability, specifically upon changes of PDF parametrization basis. We study the internal compatibility of our dataset, and investigate the dependence of results both upon the choice of input dataset and of fitting methodology. We perform a first study of the phenomenological implications of NNPDF4.0 on representative LHC processes. The software framework used to produce NNPDF4.0 is made available as an open-source package together with documentation and examples.

Abstract We present the software framework underlying the NNPDF4.0 global determination of parton distribution functions (PDFs). The code is released under an open source licence and is accompanied by extensive documentation and examples. The code base is composed by a PDF fitting package, tools to handle experimental data and to efficiently compare it to theoretical predictions, and a versatile analysis framework. In addition to ensuring the reproducibility of the NNPDF4.0 (and subsequent) determination, the public release of the NNPDF fitting framework enables a number of phenomenological applications and the production of PDF fits under user-defined data and theory assumptions.

Abstract The high-energy tails of charged- and neutral-current Drell-Yan processes provide important constraints on the light quark and anti-quark parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the large-x region. At the same time, short-distance new physics effects such as those encoded by the Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) would induce smooth distortions to the same high-energy Drell-Yan tails. In this work, we assess for the first time the interplay between PDFs and EFT effects for high-mass Drell-Yan processes at the LHC and quantify the impact that the consistent joint determination of PDFs and Wilson coefficients has on the bounds derived for the latter. We consider two well-motivated new physics scenarios: 1) electroweak oblique corrections ( W ̂ , Y ̂ $$ \hat{W},\hat{Y} $$ ) and 2) four-fermion interactions potentially related to the LHCb anomalies in R(K (*)). We account for available Drell-Yan data, both from unfolded cross sections and from searches, and carry out dedicated projections for the High-Luminosity LHC. Our main finding is that, while the interplay between PDFs and EFT effects remains moderate for the current dataset, it will become a significant challenge for EFT analyses at the HL-LHC.

Abstract We show that any determination of the strong coupling $$\alpha _s$$ αs from a process which depends on parton distributions, such as hadronic processes or deep-inelastic scattering, generally does not lead to a correct result unless the parton distributions (PDFs) are determined simultaneously along with $$\alpha _s$$ αs . We establish the result by first showing an explicit example, and then arguing that the example is representative of a generic situation which we explain using models for the shape of equal $$\chi ^2$$ χ2 contours in the joint space of $$\alpha _s$$ αs and the PDF parameters.

Abstract We formulate a general approach to the inclusion of theoretical uncertainties, specifically those related to the missing higher order uncertainty (MHOU), in the determination of parton distribution functions (PDFs). We demonstrate how, under quite generic assumptions, theory uncertainties can be included as an extra contribution to the covariance matrix when determining PDFs from data. We then review, clarify, and systematize the use of renormalization and factorization scale variations as a means to estimate MHOUs consistently in deep inelastic and hadronic processes. We define a set of prescriptions for constructing a theory covariance matrix using scale variations, which can be used in global fits of data from a wide range of different processes, based on choosing a set of independent scale variations suitably correlated within and across processes. We set up an algebraic framework for the choice and validation of an optimal prescription by comparing the estimate of MHOU encoded in the next-to-leading order (NLO) theory covariance matrix to the observed shifts between NLO and NNLO predictions. We perform a NLO PDF determination which includes the MHOU, assess the impact of the inclusion of MHOUs on the PDF central values and uncertainties, and validate the results by comparison to the known shift between NLO and NNLO PDFs. We finally study the impact of the inclusion of MHOUs in a global PDF determination on LHC cross-sections, and provide guidelines for their use in precision phenomenology. In addition, we also compare the results based on the theory covariance matrix formalism to those obtained by performing PDF determinations based on different scale choices.

Abstract The parton distribution functions (PDFs) which characterize the structure of the proton are currently one of the dominant sources of uncertainty in the predictions for most processes measured at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Here we present the first extraction of the proton PDFs that accounts for the missing higher order uncertainty (MHOU) in the fixed-order QCD calculations used in PDF determinations. We demonstrate that the MHOU can be included as a contribution to the covariance matrix used for the PDF fit, and then introduce prescriptions for the computation of this covariance matrix using scale variations. We validate our results at next-to-leading order (NLO) by comparison to the known next order (NNLO) corrections. We then construct variants of the NNPDF3.1 NLO PDF set that include the effect of the MHOU, and assess their impact on the central values and uncertainties of the resulting PDFs.

Abstract We present a determination of the strong coupling constant $$\alpha _s(m_Z)$$ αs(mZ) based on the NNPDF3.1 determination of parton distributions, which for the first time includes constraints from jet production, top-quark pair differential distributions, and the Z $$p_T$$ pT distributions using exact NNLO theory. Our result is based on a novel extension of the NNPDF methodology – the correlated replica method – which allows for a simultaneous determination of $$\alpha _s$$ αs and the PDFs with all correlations between them fully taken into account. We study in detail all relevant sources of experimental, methodological and theoretical uncertainty. At NNLO we find $$\alpha _s(m_Z) = 0.1185 \pm 0.0005^\text {(exp)}\pm 0.0001^\text {(meth)}$$ αs(mZ)=0.1185±0.0005(exp)±0.0001(meth) , showing that methodological uncertainties are negligible. We conservatively estimate the theoretical uncertainty due to missing higher order QCD corrections (N$$^3$$ 3 LO and beyond) from half the shift between the NLO and NNLO $$\alpha _s$$ αs values, finding $$\Delta \alpha ^\mathrm{th}_s =0.0011$$ Δαsth=0.0011 .

Abstract We present a new set of parton distributions, NNPDF3.1, which updates NNPDF3.0, the first global set of PDFs determined using a methodology validated by a closure test. The update is motivated by recent progress in methodology and available data, and involves both. On the methodological side, we now parametrize and determine the charm PDF alongside the light-quark and gluon ones, thereby increasing from seven to eight the number of independent PDFs. On the data side, we now include the D0 electron and muon W asymmetries from the final Tevatron dataset, the complete LHCb measurements of W and Z production in the forward region at 7 and 8 TeV, and new ATLAS and CMS measurements of inclusive jet and electroweak boson production. We also include for the first time top-quark pair differential distributions and the transverse momentum of the Z bosons from ATLAS and CMS. We investigate the impact of parametrizing charm and provide evidence that the accuracy and stability of the PDFs are thereby improved. We study the impact of the new data by producing a variety of determinations based on reduced datasets. We find that both improvements have a significant impact on the PDFs, with some substantial reductions in uncertainties, but with the new PDFs generally in agreement with the previous set at the one-sigma level. The most significant changes are seen in the light-quark flavor separation, and in increased precision in the determination of the gluon. We explore the implications of NNPDF3.1 for LHC phenomenology at Run II, compare with recent LHC measurements at 13 TeV, provide updated predictions for Higgs production cross-sections and discuss the strangeness and charm content of the proton in light of our improved dataset and methodology. The NNPDF3.1 PDFs are delivered for the first time both as Hessian sets, and as optimized Monte Carlo sets with a compressed number of replicas.

We provide an updated recommendation for the usage of sets of parton distribution functions (PDFs) and the assessment of PDF and PDF+ uncertainties suitable for applications at the LHC Run II. We review developments since the previous PDF4LHC recommendation, and discuss and compare the new generation of PDFs, which include substantial information from experimental data from the Run I of the LHC. We then propose a new prescription for the combination of a suitable subset of the available PDF sets, which is presented in terms of a single combined PDF set. We finally discuss tools which allow for the delivery of this combined set in terms of optimized sets of Hessian eigenvectors or Monte Carlo replicas, and their usage, and provide some examples of their application to LHC phenomenology. This paper is dedicated to the memory of Guido Altarelli (1941–2015), whose seminal work made possible the quantitative study of PDFs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]